ATA Lessons from VIC election

Update: The paper I refer to is: Andrew Leigh and Mark Mcleish, 2009, Are State Elections Affected by the National Economy? Evidence from Australia, The Economic Record, Volume 85(269) 210 – 222. Available here.

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33 Responses to ATA Lessons from VIC election

  1. Memoryvault

    Two hours, Doomlord?
    On a Sunday afternoon?
    Isn’t there a Readers Digest version?

  2. nilk

    Shorter version, MV: don’t be a pack of bloody muppets and crap on your base.

    It’s well worth the two hours – I was there, although I didn’t get the selfie to prove it. I’ll have to do that next time.

  3. Rabz

    The liberal party should be abolished.

    There’s nothing ‘liberal’ about it, nor are there any in it.

    Enough, FFS.

  4. Gab

    Oh, John Roskam reminds me, all the furore by the ambulance drivers in Vic before the election (remember those hideous and vitriolic signs on ambulances?), well apparently the ambos settled for less than what they were offered by the Napthine government.

  5. Gab

    Andrew Leigh gets a mention, Leigh who recently wrote an article about ‘pining’ for the return of the carbon (sic) tax and the mining tax as a peremptory announcement to Shorten’s call on the matter.

  6. Rabz

    Ded Flaillieu and Denis Naptime.

    Two of the most clueless, insipid nobodies to have cursed public life in this country’s relatively short history.

    They will not be missed.

  7. Lem

    My notes:

    Christian Kerr talks about micromanagement, arrogance, disunity. My note to Feds : unity at the moment is not going to be improved by keeping an arrogant micromanager. The disunity follows from the first two.

    secondly when a swing is on an swing is on. My note to the Feds. Victoria and Qld are gone, et tu NSW?

    the electorate is not left or right any more. The electorate is for the large part URBANISED. My note to feds: the disconnect of urbanised people from the land makes them yearn for it, at the same time that they want public transport, internet, and mobiles (hence the rise of the Greens). You need to to articulate to these people how you will achieve these things better through private enterprise.

    John Roskam: one of the problems with the intergenerational narrative is the ALP have campaigned on something they cannot predict nor possibly even deliver the goods on, but which sounds great to naive young(isn) people: Climate change, but the centre right are too embarrassed to talk strongly and consistently about money, which is the thing that delivers good standards of living.

    Helen Kroger She spent her time talking all about the mechanics of “getting the message across” but I didn’t sense she knew what the message is. Gillard’s government had the same problem, and they lost tooHelen! Listen up! The Libs need to have principles they’re willing to die for! Apparently with the Feds, their view is: You don’t like these principles? We have others… that’s the problem pet.

    Sinclair Davidson: Very nice description of an academic paper which proved what we all freakin’ well know (Sinc): if the unemployment rate goes up the vote in the government goes down and no-one gives a toss about AAA ratings and debt levels. I like these sorts of papers (can I have the reference). Also pointed out that debt etc does still matter, but you have to point out over and over and over again WHY.

    Switched off when the young Lib got on. Not her fault I had something else to do.

    There you go, that’s the reader’s digest version.

  8. Gab

    Excellent point made by Sinclair about the Libs holding a conscience vote to prevent doctors from being allowed to exercise their conscience on the abortion issue.

  9. jupes

    Didn’t have time to watch it though I will make the following very general comments:

    The Victorian government lost because they were not conservative enough.

    The Qld government lost because they were too conservative.

    The Abbott government will lose because they are both not conservative enough (for anyone with half a brain) and too conservative (for idiots).

  10. en passant

    There used to be the seven deadly sins, but I gave up counting the errors, blunders stupidities, pointlessness, lack of principles, cowardliness, naivety (let me catch my breath) of this illiberal government. One of the questioners refers to the ‘dead wood’. Well, it burns well and we need a bonfire – a big one and we need it now.

  11. Anne

    Only two of the speakers were worth listening to.

    My take away – Government always grows. Once in office any principles espoused or expressed are put aside and the real business of clinging to power and feathering one’s nest begins.

    This will never change because Ronald Reagan and Margaret Thatcher are dead and future politicians like this articulate, young woman study bureaucratic paper shuffling and social media messaging instead of the philosophy of Milton Friedman and John Stuart Mill.

    I despair.

  12. Gab

    Interesting comment about what the Liberals’ values are these days, I’d say whatever the Left want them to stand for.

    I’m going to search for a speech by Menzies on Liberal values, just so I know what the Libs used to be like.

  13. Ellen of Tasmania

    Worth the watch – thank you for sharing it with us all.

    The Libs can’t sell a liberal, conservative view because most of them don’t believe in it any more.

  14. Snoopy

    Gab
    #1587981, posted on February 1, 2015 at 6:22 pm
    Oh, John Roskam reminds me, all the furore by the ambulance drivers in Vic before the election (remember those hideous and vitriolic signs on ambulances?), well apparently the ambos settled for less than what they were offered by the Napthine government.

    Is that right? I’m shocked.

  15. Snoopy

    My take away – Government always grows. Once in office any principles espoused or expressed are put aside and the real business of clinging to power and feathering one’s nest begins.

    It is a citizen’s duty to cheat, thieve from and rort the government. Anything else is consent.

  16. Leigh Lowe

    So what was the conclusion as to why the vacillating, spineless, policy-free, tongue-tied, shit-scared nancy boys lost the election?

  17. Andrew

    I’m going to search for a speech by Menzies on Liberal values, just so I know what the Libs used to be like.

    He would certainly reject the ideological weakness of the current bunch.

    Menzies:

    “We have a state executive of the Liberal Party [in Victoria], which is dominated by what they now call ‘Liberals with a small l’ – that is to say, Liberals who believe in nothing but who believe in anything if they think it’s worth a few votes”

  18. Gab

    Here we are, Menzies in 1962 addressing the Young Liberals, giving them a bit if history and then spelling out what the Liberal Party stands for back then, in the last century.

    What Menzies said back then holds even stronger and is more pertinent today, especially so for Abbott et al.

    Abbott and the rest of the fops at both state and federal levels of the Liberal party should do themselves (and us) a favour and read Menzies’ words and contemplate the error of their ways today.

    It’s a small pdf file and only eight pages in length.

    http://pmtranscripts.dpmc.gov.au/transcripts/00000568.pdf

    It’s rather amusing, in a way, as a lot of what Menzies said sounds a lot like what we here at the Cat say.

  19. .

    The Qld government lost because they were too conservative.

    No.

  20. JohnA

    But don’t forget that Menzies was the one who introduced the welfare state – widow’s pensions and child endowment.

    (Can’t find an authoritative source just now…so I am open to correction.)

  21. Memoryvault

    But don’t forget that Menzies was the one who introduced the welfare state – widow’s pensions and child endowment.

    Wrong.

    A compulsory superannuation scheme to benefit age pensioners, the invalid, widows and orphans was introduced in 1946 by the previous government. Weekly contributions, at the rate of one shilling a sixpence in the pound (7.5%) were paid into a special fund.

    Menzies’ “contribution” was to transfer the payments from the separate fund, to general revenue in 1949, so the pollies of the day could spend the money as quickly as it accrued.

  22. Pusnip

    Jess is cute, regardless of whether she’s read Mill. Christian was depressing, but only because he was recounting the awful truth about Ballieu’s hopeless office and approach to government. Sinc was spot on regarding the need to get the economics right but sell out on terms people well relate to, though his election forecasting proved less perceptive. But best calk went to the 36 year Lib party veteran who called the Libs out for tolerating no-hopers and failure.

  23. johno

    The most revealing thing from this clip is that The Oz needs to update Christian’s byline picture! He has stacked on a lot of weight.

  24. …lack of principles, moral and intellectual cowardliness,
    Is that better, en passant?

    Because those are the foundations of the Liberals problems.

  25. The Qld government lost because they were too conservative.

    The Queensland government lost because they failed to get the runs in early, get the bloodshed finished, and then cut taxes and then let it all settle down.
    They allowed the media to set the agenda. And that agenda was to ‘do the Libs slowly’.

  26. You know, this Winston bloke makes a lot of sense, when he’s not drinking or on the yippee beans…

  27. Tel

    Interesting comment about what the Liberals’ values are these days, I’d say whatever the Left want them to stand for.

    Good point Gab, when you create a vacuum, nature attempts to fill it for you. That’s what has happened with the Liberals firmly standing for nothing.

  28. Ms Dolittle

    Anne you little hussy in the front row!

  29. Yohan

    This is worth watching guys, the whole 2 hours. John Roskam and Sinclair had some great things to say.

    Interesting facts… senior liberals look down on Andrew Bolt and Catallaxy Files readers. The most popular columnist and most popular centre right blog in Australia, lets dismiss them both.

    Sinclair Davidson had a meeting with a cabinet minister in December, and his points raised were dismissed with the argument that they ‘have to govern for all Australia’.

  30. .

    Interesting facts… senior liberals look down on Andrew Bolt and Catallaxy Files readers. The most popular columnist and most popular centre right blog in Australia, lets dismiss them both.

    Because they are arrogant, stupid c&&ts and they will rue the day they ignored their base and the best advice money could buy, but was given freely.

  31. Gab

    By the way, Sinclair looks rather good slimmed down.

  32. Anne

    Yes Eliza, prettiest girl in my row.

    Upstaged only by Michael J. Howson. 😉

  33. Sinclair Davidson

    Andrew Leigh reference in the post above.

    Thanks Gab for noticing.

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