Roundup 6 November

Guide to The Spectator. Greenpeace outlawed in India as a threat to economic development. Tol versus Cook whose consensus myth went all around the world to the Oval Office.

The 97 percent claim was taken from a study paper by Australian John Cook, Climate Communications Fellow for the Global change Institute at the University of Queensland, and his colleagues, published in the journal Environmental Research Letters in May, 2013. The paper says nothing about the would-be dangers of climate change and it counts the number of publications, rather than the number of scientists, in support of human-made climate change. Never let facts get in the way of a good story.

The paper is a treasure trove of how-not-to lessons for a graduate class on survey design and analysis: the sample was not representative, statistical tests were ignored, and the results were misinterpreted.

Renewables in the third world. Indian villagers demand real power, not fake (solar). Trouble in paradise.

Developing countries, led by Africa and China, nearly walked out of the UN’s climate talks in Bonn, Germany, on Monday, as the rift widened between the rich and poor nations over who should bear the larger financial responsibility to implement measures to curb climate change.

CO2 around the world. A couple of lukewarmer books recommended by Judith Curry. No time for more comment right now but check out the first comment on her site.

Books. The strange world of Edward Gorey. Beautiful books. Collectors’ paperbacks. Clouston and Hall.

Money. An infographic of the US budget. Running out of other people’s money in Brazil.

Around the town. The Liberty Calendar. Gerard Henderson.

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16 Responses to Roundup 6 November

  1. Robert O

    Environment Minister Hunt was quoted as saying that AGL’s solar projects at Broken Hill and Nyngan were a win-win situation. A nameplate capacity of 155 MW projected to produce 359,000 MWh annually or 26% of nameplate.

    The 26% estimate seems far too large for a solar PV system whereas those in Spain do not reach this level of efficiency, more likely about 16-17%, but solar stations only operate between 10 am. and 4 pm. and not very much is produced outside these hours and little on cloudy days. A conventional coal station will produce 4 x this amount. But as the Indian villagers have found out to their consternation one needs very substantial back-up generators to cover the other 84% of the time, so the question is if Australia is going to go renewable what back-up generation is going to be used when the sun don’t shine (84% of the time), or the wind don’t blow 75% of the time ) ?

    And if the power companies are going to phase out the coal stations over the next 20 years or so (to be politically correct) how are we going to avoid the blackouts that happened in Adelaide the other day when Yallorn power was not operational? Perhaps the politicians will wake up by then, but don’t hold your breath, as one party is proposing 50% renewable by 2030; pity that politics doesn’t seem to attract many scientists nor engineers who understand such matters.

  2. rickw

    who should bear the larger financial responsibility to implement measures to curb climate change

    Any wanker who believes in it.

  3. rickw

    I highly recommend reading Rob MW’s links.

    Activism and associated litigation these days is essentially a form of “employment” that can be highly lucrative to those involved, highly destructive to those who are targeted and also damaging to the community in general. The community will ultimately pay higher prices for fuel, lubricants and polymers as a result of the vexatious litigation of oil companies. Ironically this will also impact on oil company R&D budgets, including R&D on polymers which are used in high performance batteries.

    You couldn’t make this shit up, yet another mafia like racket targeting those who produce.

  4. handjive

    UN wants money to fight winter:

    UNHCR launches appeal to aid refugees as winter hits Europe

    “Harsh weather conditions are likely to exacerbate the suffering of the thousands of refugees and migrants landing in Greece and travelling through the Balkans, and may result in further loss of life if adequate measures are not taken urgently,” UNHCR spokesperson William Spindler said.

    http://www.unhcr.org.uk/news-and-views/news-list/news-detail/article/unhcr-launches-appeal-to-aid-refugees-as-winter-hits-europe.html#_ga=1.87569816.1238870587.1445506641

  5. Ros

    An argument about who should pay and they appoint Rudd to be in charge of one of the largest pots of the UN hence the world’s taxpayers money.

    “The world has made good progress toward achieving the MDGs. Hundreds of millions of people have been lifted out of poverty. In fact the poverty reduction target was met five years ahead of schedule. The target on improving access to safe drinking water has also been met and other targets, including the target on achieving gender parity in primary education, are close to being met”

    On DFAT site. How true is it that the Millennium Development goals were the reason that hundreds of millions of people had been lifted out of poverty. What proof not just cum hoc ergo propter hoc. The Bjorn Lomborg Consensus Centre at Flinders University would have been an extremely valuable aid in researching that question. Is that why Turnbull killed it, because the truth is not his ally in his remorseless drive to the left of Australia. As he spends like there is no tomorrow what would have 4 million have meant. He has been allowed to get away with killing that venture, and totally humiliating the VC, without any questions. By our pathetic in love so called free press. Everything he does is political, what was this about. For Australia, or for his, and his acolyte Bishop’s, standing globally.

    The one good aspect of that report for the poor of the world, it seems like safe water is on the improve hence maybe having one of the most incompetent political managers in Australia’s history inflicted on them may not be as bad for them as it was for us.

    Anybody know what role national governments have in these appointments. Would Turnbull have been consulted?

  6. Ros

    “When he was prime minister, Mr Abbott made it clear he would support former New Zealand prime minister Helen Clark, who has announced she is running for the post and is working at the UN, if the choice turned to our region.

    In February, Julie Bishop left open the option of Australia backing Mr Rudd in a campaign to become UN secretary-general if he nominated. The Foreign Minister said at a press conference in New Zealand that if an Australian were to nominate for the position, the government’s support would ­depend on who that was. The Foreign Minister, who is in New York to represent Australia at the leaders’ summit of the UN General Assembly, then said Australia would make a decision on who to support closer to the time for the change.”

    It has to be the case that Bishop and Tirnbull assisted him in this appointment. What’s the chance that any in the media will ask?

  7. cohenite

    Robert O

    #1848735, posted on November 7, 2015 at 12:31 am

    Environment Minister Hunt was quoted as saying that AGL’s solar projects at Broken Hill and Nyngan were a win-win situation. A nameplate capacity of 155 MW projected to produce 359,000 MWh annually or 26% of nameplate.

    The 26% estimate seems far too large for a solar PV system whereas those in Spain do not reach this level of efficiency, more likely about 16-17%, but solar stations only operate between 10 am. and 4 pm. and not very much is produced outside these hours and little on cloudy days. A conventional coal station will produce 4 x this amount.

    The capacity factor of 26% which hunt spruiks is bullshit even if it is true, which it isn’t.

    Capacity factor is a % of the maximum capacity of an installation, its installed or nameplate capacity; but it is averaged over a period, usually a year. That 26% could occur in 3 0r 4 months: then fuck all. People don’t appreciate this; hunt, who is a complete dope about alarmism certainly doesn’t.

    The real thing about renewables is their reliability point. The RP is the probability of 90% of the maximum capacity occurring at any one time. Renewables have a RP of about 3%. 3 fucking %. At any time a wind or solar farm has 3% chance of 90% of the maximum capacity occurring at any time. How can you rely on that? You can’t. Renewables are bullshit. Every dollar spent on them is wasted.

  8. Robert O

    Far be from me to say the Minister is a liar, just ill-informed or badly advised and most certainly useless. But that is what the AGL website says and the bureaucrats are gullible enough to believe it and of course fill the the tip jar to build these plants.

    The black-outs inAdelaide the other day will become more frequent with more renewable energy and less conventional power as the coal stations close.

    For remote communities with high transport costs, e..g King Is., renewable energy makes some economic sense as long as there is diesel back-up, but for industrial power it is a nonsense. apart from Hydro. The last Hydro scheme, Gordon stage 2 for 180MW of 24 hr. power was canned by the Hawke government.

  9. Ros

    When does China stop being a poor nation? Why should Australians who pay taxes give money to China ostensibly for climate change but in a sense is being used for building artificial islands or sending rockets into space. What will Malcolm and Julie do, will their standing with their UN mates require them to hand over our money.

    Obama of course has to object to the public funding. Seems weird that a country should be required to pay compensation to another nation that it, the USA, owes huge sums to. And the American public is not going to be at all impressed by paying considerable sums to the mob that is acquiring their jobs and stealing the US ‘s intellectual property on a large scale.

  10. Ros

    Obama proving what a dangerous man he is, driven by glory seeking. All about symbolism for Obama. And we now have our own glory seeker going to Paris, who has always had a taste for grandness.

    “His own State Department has repeatedly concluded that this project would be better for the environment than high-emitting trains. That dirtier rail transport is skyrocketing. And Canadian oil exports have continued to rise, even as oilsands opponents worked to block pipelines — first Keystone, and now others within Canada.

    Keystone would have handled nearly one-quarter of all the Canadian oil exports to the United States, which would have created thousands of temporary jobs and longer-term resource revenues for American counties along the route.

    Sources recently indicated that TransCanada Corp. was weighing a possible NAFTA lawsuit as it braced for a rejection, its storage yards stacked with mounds of unused pipe in a project that has cost the Calgary company billions. Its share price had plummeted 40 per cent since last year with falling oil prices, and dropped another five per cent Friday………..

    But the Obama administration was tasked with determining whether the project satisfied the national interest. It concluded the effect on job-creation; oil prices; U.S. energy supplies; and perhaps even greenhouse-gas emissions were virtually nil.

    But Obama said it mattered — as a signal entering this month’s big climate summit.

    “America is now a global leader when it comes to taking serious action to fight climate change,” Obama said. “And frankly, approving this project would have undercut that global leadership. And that’s the biggest risk we face — not acting.”

    He continued: “Today, we’re continuing to lead by example. Because ultimately, if we’re going to prevent large parts of this Earth from becoming not only inhospitable but uninhabitable in our lifetimes, we’re going to have to keep some fossil fuels in the ground.”

    He has reduced President of the United States to third most powerful but has the hide to prattle on about leading the globe.

  11. Leo G

    Judith Curry’s op-ed in Fox News: Is government tinkering with global warming data?

    The early 21st century slowdown in global warming, often referred to as the warming ‘hiatus’ or ‘pause,’ was unexpected — the 2007 assessment report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projected a rate of warming of 0.2oC per decade in the early part of the 21st century…

    A recent paper by Nieves and collaborators use NOAA’s other ocean surface temperature data set (OISST) – determined from global satellite observations and the global ocean surface buoy network – and found that the global average ocean surface temperature has been rising since 2003 at a rate of 0.01oC per decade, …

  12. Ms Smith

    UN wants money to fight winter:

    UNHCR launches appeal to aid refugees as winter hits Europe

    “Harsh weather conditions are likely to exacerbate the suffering of the thousands of refugees and migrants landing in Greece and travelling through the Balkans, and may result in further loss of life if adequate measures are not taken urgently,” UNHCR spokesperson William Spindler said.

    Why oh why did these hundreds of thousands of migrating refugees to Europe not consider that winter is fast approaching at the time they left. Did they really expect that they would have a warm cosy house to live in now, instead of tents, and they are open to the harsh weather and rain. Did they not have a warm house in their native countries, or has TPTB lied and deceived them all of the better life in the West. I feel very sorry for the stupidity of some!

  13. Gerard

    Does the government have a mandate to sign the Paris agreement?

  14. Rayvic

    “Does the government have a mandate to sign the Paris agreement?”
    No.
    It should not sign, as the agreement is a farce. The govt should tell the others to get stuffed.

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