Rafe’s Roundup 29 Jan

Hypnotic whirlpool gets interesting towards 3 minutes. The ten most expensive military vehicles in the world. 24 types of libertarians. Almost as funny as windmills on fire.

The Spectator digest of art and books. Striking lithographs.

The term lithograph comes from the Greek words lithos, meaning “stone” and graphein, meaning “to write”. Lithography is a printing process that allows an original piece of art work to be reproduced. The basic method is based on water and oil repelling each other. An image is drawn directly onto a stone tablet (usually limestone) using a greasy crayon or pencil and the stone is then covered with water. When the ink is applied to the stone, the ink is attracted to the greasy image and repelled by the water.

The science fiction steampunk genre. My son Leo has contributed several books to the genre.

The weather. Green cars boost demand for coal-fired power! So where did you think the electric power came from? The rise and fall of the hockey stick. Looming energy crises in UK and Germany, but what would electrical engineers know? 300 scientists write to Congress about NOAA fiddling temperature data (h/t Gab).

Finance. Boom and bust in Brazil. Warning, Keynesians at work.

The rationality of Islamophobia. Question. Why are they happy in so many countries like Australia and W Europe that are not Islamic (yet)?

For nerds. Sheldon Richman. Memories of the NSW Dept of Health, my farewell speech in 2011. Roundup Winter 1999 – Bowles and Gintis on human reciprocating behavior, and how to be an art critic. Insights from Popper on the climate debate. Some loose talk about Popper and others without much to show from a lot of comments.

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24 Responses to Rafe’s Roundup 29 Jan

  1. .

    …but there are only 23 real libertarians in the world and me being one of them only leaves space for 22 more souls.

  2. egg_

    Green cars boost demand for coal-fired power!

    And high temp incinerators for the batteries!

  3. sdfc

    Sounds like what you really want is troops on the streets Goanna.

  4. jupes

    …but there are only 23 real libertarians in the world and me being one of them only leaves space for 22 more souls.

    Is that using the same method of calculation as your “there’s only 200 terrorists in the world” call?

  5. jupes

    Actually Dot, I reckon you qualify as 14 of those libertarian types.

  6. egg_

    In the traffic-packed Dutch city of Rotterdam, electric cars jostle for space at charging stations. The oldest exhaust-spewing vehicles will soon be banned from the city center. Thanks to generous tax incentives, the share of electric vehicles has grown faster in the Netherlands than in nearly any other country in the world.

    Aren’t the Dutchies also home to the (Ponds) Climate Institute?

  7. A Lurker

    Well done to your son, Rafe.

    From another writer.

  8. Tel

    Popper’s insight raises the bar for testing the predictions of climate models. The world has warmed since the late 19th century; anthropogenic forces became dominant only after WWII. The naive prediction is that warming will continue. This requires no knowledge of greenhouse gases or theory about anthropogenic global warming.

    A risky test requires a prediction that differs from “more of the same”. [JC bold] Forecasts of accelerated warming late in the 21st century qualify as “risky” but provide no evidence today. Hindcasts — matching model projections vs. past observations — provide only weak evidence for the policy debate, as past data was available to the model’s developers.

    They did make those “risky” predictions already back in the 80’s and 90’s with the many models which insist it should be about a degree warmer now than it is. Now they want to adjust the thermometer readings and abolish satellite readings to jigger the data until it fits their previously out on a limb predictions. There was supposed to be sea level covering our coastal cities by now, and millions of climate refugees all over the place.

    I don’t think Popper really comes into it any more. We all agree that retrospectively adjusting data to fit your preconceptions is an absolute no-no and doing that virtually guarantees you get a false positive. That should be where the story ends, from a logical and philosophical basis. The only “frozen public policy debate” is people who have massive political investment in Global Warming, who will never back down because they cannot accept how wrong they are and how destructive this thing has been. After that it’s a political and propaganda battle, not a scientific one.

  9. egg_

    Now they want to adjust the thermometer readings and abolish satellite readings

    Fraud – pure and simple.

  10. Tel

    Egg, it’s not quite fraud, because they did document the adjustments (badly, and not in a way where certain key places like Darwin can be reproduced reliably) but it is appallingly poor scientific practice. In any other discipline such adjustments would rightly be ridiculed.

    Going back and tweaking the data to match your theory is self-delusion, and it’s a well known issue that you have to keep thumping the table with students to train it out of them. As Feynman said, “The first principle is that you must not fool yourself, and you are the easiest person to fool.”

  11. handjive

    fraud
    noun
    1. deceit, trickery, sharp practice, or breach of confidence, perpetrated for profit or to gain some unfair or dishonest advantage.
    2. a particular instance of such deceit or trickery:
    mail fraud; election frauds.
    3. any deception, trickery, or humbug:
    That diet book is a fraud and a waste of time.
    4. a person who makes deceitful pretenses; sham; poseur.
    ~ ~ ~
    “The “hiatus” has been addressed by a veritable avalanche of recent studies, as reported in articles on The Conversation (such as here and here).

    These studies collectively show that the warming slowdown has been the temporary result of a regularly recurring change in ocean circulation – essentially, a bump in the road towards a warmer planet.

    This could be due to the models being too sensitive, but would be more easily explained by the existence of some influence on climate that has up until now been partly offsetting the greenhouse effect, and has not been properly accounted for.”
    . . .
    > Does anyone remember the 97% Doomsday climate scientists saying this during the 1976-98 warming?: “Oceans control the planet’s temperature”

    How we explained the greenhouse effect in 1988 (ABCtv)

    > Nope. No mention there.

    > Love the idea that we can’t use satellites to measure air temperature now, but we know the heat content of the oceans:

    “But latest data from satellite and direct ocean temperature measurements from 2005 to 2013 “found the ocean abyss below 1 995m has not warmed measurably,” Nasa said in a statement.

  12. egg_

    Fair enough Tel, so long as the instrumental record itself is not doctored – if public records of any kind are doctored it should be fraud under the law IMHO.
    What of the 1930s record heatwave data in the USA?

    https://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2014/06/23/noaanasa-dramatically-altered-us-temperatures-after-the-year-2000/

  13. Rafe Champion

    Thanks Gab, it is now in the post. I would like to know what is happening in the various scientific associations like academies of science which have endorsed the scare. One scientific body in the US was doing a review of its public position but I don’t recall any news on the result.

  14. Bruce of Newcastle

    The ten most expensive military vehicles in the world.

    Nice beasties.
    Zumwalt is the one I’m most interested in. Floating sci fi.

  15. Bruce of Newcastle

    Ooh, glad to hear about Leo. He just made a sale. 🙂

  16. .

    jupes
    #1931159, posted on January 29, 2016 at 10:48 pm
    Actually Dot, I reckon you qualify as 14 of those libertarian types.

    Wow, an internet tough guy. Say it to my face, champion.

  17. Insights from Popper on the climate debate. Some loose talk about Popper and others without much to show from a lot of comments.

    In fairness, we almost got to the second sentence where Katzav mentions “severe testing” in a paper that does not seem to render justice to the concept anyway. Were the Editor more cooperative, I might have been more tempted to cite Mayo, e.g.:

    http://www.phil.vt.edu/dmayo/personal_website/(1997)%20Severe%20Tests,%20Arguing%20from%20Error,%20and%20Methodological%20Underdetermination.pdf

    This comment was just to let you know of a little something that might interest you:

    n Pursuit of Truth (1992) Quine expressed a surprising measure of agreement with Popper – agreement which, as far as I know, has gone uncommented on all these years!

    On page 12 Quine writes “Traditional epistemology sought grounds in sensory experience capable of implying our theories about the world or at least endowing those theories with some increment of probability. Sir Karl Popper has long stressed, to the contrary, that observation serves only to refute theory and not to support it.”

    Taken at face value this looks like total agreement with Popper, and the whole section (which starts on page 9) up to this point is in perfect agreement with Popper. Moreover, the sentence that follows: “We have now been seeing in a schematic way why this is so.” (emphasis added by me), says that this is in agreement with Popper. (I noticed when I was still quite a young philosopher that Quine never employs the term “confirmation”, which is why I shudder when people call him a “confirmation holist”, just as I shudder when people call him a “meaning holist”.)

    http://putnamphil.blogspot.ca/2014/06/surprising-praise-of-popper-by-quine.html

    Thank you for the drive-by,

    W

  18. Guy

    In addition to Tel’s link to the 24 Types of Authoritarians, there is also a 24 Types of Progressives

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