ALP/Libs in race to wreck the economy with climate change policy consensus

The debate between Mr Shorten and Mr Turnbull last night demonstrated an unsurprising level of consensus on greenhouse gas mitigation.  The Prime Minister talked about the 26-28 per cent reduction of carbon dioxide equivalent emissions (based on 2005 emissions) that the government signed onto in Paris.  Bill Shorten like Real Madrid’s Pepe rolled along the turf, howling in apparent agony after a confected foul because this was the same plan that Tony Abbott’s Cabinet had agreed.

Ostensibly, the two parties’ policies are similar – at least until 2030, after which Mr Shorten adopts The Greens policy and does the Full Monty of 100 per cent renewables.

In 2030, the Turnbull 26-28 per cent reduction means reducing emissions by 154-166 million tonnes per annum.  Bill Shorten’s 50 per cent renewables means 105,000 megawatt hours of wind/solar electricity (plus 18,000 hydro; Labor continues to dine-out on having blocked the Tasmanian Dam proposal a quarter of a century ago and is unlikely to approve any major new hydro facility).  A megawatt hour of coal based electricity equates to around one tonne of carbon dioxide.

Costs of emission reductions vary widely.  In 2011 the PC put the cost for Australia at $44-99 per tonne.  In 2014, Stern and Deitz  put the necessary world price at $US 32-103, rising by 2035 to US$S82-260.  In all cases the cost rises with the level of abatement.

If Labor could achieve its 50 per cent renewables at the present price of $80 per Gigawatt hour, the cost would come in at $8.4 billion a year.  To this, another $1.5 billion would be needed in back up and grid strengthening in view of the intrinsic unreliability of wind/solar.  Labour would also use the planning rules to prevent land clearing and thereby make further reductions, without, of course, providing any compensation for the property rights they thereby seize.

Under the Coalition’s Direct Action buy-outs of emissions, the auctions have averaged a $12.1 per tonne price, with 95 per cent of the reduction having been achieved by “vegetation” – de-rating agricultural land.   If such a price could be sustained the 26-28 per cent reduction would be achieved at a relatively modest $2000 to $2,200 billion a year.  But if the government believed that they would surely eliminate the renewables target which cost some $80 per tonne – that is they’d get rid of the renewables target if they thought they could get re-elected without the campaign funding provided by the renewable industry from the rents the policy creates.  If the costs were $80 per tonne the Coalition program would come in at $12.3 to $13.3 billion a year.

And the Turnbull government is leaving little to chance.  The new Safeguard mechanism  sets the stage for the introduction of a cap and trade carbon tax by establishing a data base for the top 140 emitters (covering about half of existing emissions).

Most of these costs of emission reductions are hidden in inflated electricity bills.  And there is a neat fantasy that the cost will be paid not by households but by business (or, better still, big business).   But the costs remain costs and will fall on consumers/taxpayers irrespective of politicians’ hopes.  Indeed it is better if they fell directly on consumers since, like the GST, this means a relative lack of economic distortion that undermines production, causing the departure of energy intensive businesses that would otherwise gravitate to Australia.  The shift of these industries overseas, of course, means no net effect on emissions, just lower living standards in Australia.

To support their policies our leaders offer dire projections of costs of failing to act.  Bill Shorten repeated the ALP policy canard that “extreme events” which once affected one per cent of the earth are now at 10 per cent and that the economic cost will shave one per cent a year every year from GDP.  Such views too radical even for alarmists like Stern and Garnaut.  The bottom line for costs of warming over the next fifty years according to the latest IPCC report range from 2.5 per cent (Nordhaus 2008) to 0.5 per cent (Bosello et al).

Unwinding this mess would be a bonus offsetting any of the more quirky policies of a Trump presidency.

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50 Responses to ALP/Libs in race to wreck the economy with climate change policy consensus

  1. eb

    modest $2000 to $2,200 billion a year

    Doesn’t sound very modest to me! You might want to proofread that post again Alan.

  2. Myrddin Seren

    My assumption was that Shorten went with his 50% renewballs by 2030 to shore up Labor seats at risk of falling to the Greens, and tossing an encouragement to the union-controlled industry super funds, who will be front and centre in harvesting the taxpayers dollars that will be flowing faster than the Snowy Hydro Scheme to throw up wind turbines willy nilly.

    However, I also assumed that Labor did not rate itself a chance to win the election, given these sort of policies were fairly comprehensively rejected by the electorate in 2013.

    Now it looks like Shorten might actually win with this in his policy locker – we are looking at accelerated national ruin and a crony corporatist economy even faster than it already looked to be landing.

    As an electorate we have an awful choice – the three main political parties are all simply shades of green-left, with some differences in what vested interests they protect.

    Would love to see their focus group research on this stuff, because I would bet the average Labor or Coalition voter – outside inner urban trendies for Labor and the Doctor’s Wives cohort for the Turnbullians – do not give a flying f**k about this stuff.

  3. Michel Lasouris

    Can somebody who is sane explain to me what all this Climate Change expenditure is about? The climate has always changed; the Ice Cores prove this, and it always will change. There are far more important matters to which the globe should turn it’s attention. Most notably is the absence of an Immunisation against Zika and Murray encephalitis. Moreover the drug companies have no intention to develop anything. There’s not enough sales in it for them, apparently. And even more urgently is the need to develop anti-bacterial and anti viral drugs to beat decease resistant bugs.
    If Global Warming is expected to be significant in about a century, I wouldn’t be too concerned. Chances seem to be we will all be dead anyway from one incurable illness or another

  4. .

    We’re all gonna die but there are no potential buyers?

    No.

  5. H B Bear

    Never go the full Monty.

  6. jupes

    The debate between Mr Shorten and Mr Turnbull last night demonstrated an unsurprising level of consensus on greenhouse gas mitigation.

    A fantasy question for the next ‘debate’:

    With China increasing its CO2 emissions by an amount equal to or greater than Australia’s annual emissions until at least 2030, India also increasing its CO2 emissions and Donald Trump declaring the US will withdraw from the Paris agreements when he becomes President, what is the point of Australia spending one cent on reducing CO2 emissions?

    Specifically what is the precise effect we hope to have on global temperature?

  7. Art Vandelay

    And the Turnbull government is leaving little to chance. The new Safeguard mechanism sets the stage for the introduction of a cap and trade carbon tax by establishing a data base for the top 140 emitters (covering about half of existing emissions).

    I can’t believe that any other Conservative commentators (particularly Andrew Bolt) haven’t covered this issue. Is it because they don’t understand it? Or are they covering for someone? (from what I’ve seen, this was allegedly a secret deal between Abbott and Hunt)

  8. john constantine

    Reports of low productivity remote farmland already being valued solely on its value to be removed from production and returned to scrub for carbon credits.

    As their shorten says, all farmland was stolen from indigineous farmers, once you have this as a progressive value then having australian farms return to the bush they came from like farms in Zimbabwe have is the right thing to do.

    Dump the water out to sea, replace rural communities with the endless scrub and grow organic vegetables for the population of big australia on urban allottments and rooftops.

    Judge Dredd was just a few years out with 2000AD as the beginning of the totalitarian fascist dystopia.

  9. Fred Lenin

    what is going to Happen when President Trump pulls the US out of this u.n.communist shit and exposes it as a fraud . He will no doubt eliminate taxpayer syubsidies to the socialist multi mijjionaires . other countries will see the results of exposing this con and demand their governments follow tge US . why should tge West be penalised to help China ,India qnd the rest of the underdeveloped world ? they can pull themseleves up tge way we did a couple of hudred years ago .

  10. Bruce of Newcastle

    This is the month when CERN in Switzerland put a second shot into the heart of the green carbon monster. They demonstrated by careful work that the Sun, through its secondary impact of cloud formation, is responsible for much of the warming last century. Not CO2. Then additional research teams have been showing that the thermohaline cycle, which is pumped by the NAO, AMO and PDO, is responsible for most of the rest of the warming.

    For this reason both Turnbull and Shorten should immediately void their renewables policies and return to cheap coal-fired power.

  11. Beachside

    Let’s hope Trump can stay safe. The world needs him.

  12. egg_

    My assumption was that Shorten went with his 50% renewballs by 2030 to shore up Labor seats at risk of falling to the Greens

    IIRC that’s the claim Di Natale was making in the Regional Leaders Debate last week with Bananaby.

  13. H B Bear

    Reports of low productivity remote farmland already being valued solely on its value to be removed from production and returned to scrub for carbon credits.

    That works well – right up until the point it all burns to the ground and the whole thing starts again. How does that affect the CO2 book-keeping entries? What utter crap.

  14. H B Bear

    IIRC that’s the claim Di Natale was making in the Regional Leaders Debate last week with Bananaby.

    Homos, trannies and carbon dioxide. Who says democracy isn’t working well?

  15. John Michelmore

    And don’t forget, Howard in a deal with the States locked up native vegetation and regrowth to comply with Kyoto requirements and the landowners had their trees and carbon reclaimed from their fee simple properties without compensation. I wish we had more choice this election, it’s either socialist B1 or socialist B2 and not much else for the lower house!

  16. Beachside

    Bruce of Newcastle
    #2043203, posted on May 30, 2016 at 4:31 pm

    This is the month when CERN in Switzerland put a second shot into the heart of the green carbon monster. They demonstrated by careful work that the Sun, through its secondary impact of cloud formation, is responsible for much of the warming last century. Not CO2. Then additional research teams have been showing that the thermohaline cycle, which is pumped by the NAO, AMO and PDO, is responsible for most of the rest of the warming.

    For this reason both Turnbull and Shorten should immediately void their renewables policies and return to cheap coal-fired power.

    They should, but I doubt they will.

    Turnbull is a Goldman Sachs (ETS) man, and Shorten is owned by the Unions, whose Industry Super Funds would invest in the renewables sector, particularly Wind Farms from which they can reap $400K subsidies per turbine, per year – until the cows come home. It’s a licence to print money without ever having to deliver a usable product. Where’s the ACCC?

    The other concern is that the UN fraud might now be just too big to fail – too much has been invested in the entire scam, renewables and emissions trading schemes and all the businesses that are now plugged in, because they know it’s like the gold rush of the 1800s all over again, and the carpetbaggers are queued up for their share. Pity is the punters pay.

  17. By not voting Liberal 1 – we at least deny the Lib party the $2.60 of taxpayer vote funding. Delivers a message.

  18. Ant

    Unwinding this mess…

    “Nothing is so permanent as a temporary government program.”
    Milton Friedman

    The Global Warming Racket will never be wound back.

    1. Too big a trough.
    2. Too full of “free” loot.
    2. Too many rapacious pigs.

  19. By not voting Liberal 1 – we at least deny the Lib party the $2.60 of taxpayer vote funding. Delivers a message. It’s self-delusional but at least lets me kid myself that I actually did something.

    FIFY

  20. The Global Warming Racket will never be wound back.

    True, but it will self-destruct. Climate goes in fairly predictable cycles. Roughly 30 years of warming, followed by 30 years of cooling, but getting gradually warmer for around 150 years. Then the 150 year cycle reverses, and the 30 cycles start trending downwards.

    The cycles have now reversed. Historically, the largest temperature changes are in the first and last 30 year cycles in each 150 year cycle. So it is going to get colder, very quickly, for next 30 years. Then there will 30 years of respite before the downward cycle continues. And so on until we hit the next Little Ice Age around 2120. Then we will start to warm again.

    Within the next five years the Eastern States will reach a point where electricity baseload demand exceeds supply. That is, we will start to run short of electrical power, which will continue to get more expensive. People will start to die of hypothermia. In the northern hemisphere, grain crops will start to fail in Canada, the central states of the USA, and the Ukraine and Russia. People will starve to death, assuming they don’t freeze first. Global warming will become a myth, that nobody will admit to having ever believed in.

  21. Fred Lenin

    To stop the climate scam ,what would happen if taxpayersvstopped filling tge trough with money >
    No taxpayer funds ,no scam ! to destroy leftists you just Defund them .unions academics career politicians aparatchiks ,all gone without money ,totally irrelevant .

  22. RealWorld

    Good point John
    This blatant stealing of private property was one of the most despicable acts ever by any Australian government – backed all the way by labour of course. It seems there is no end to depths of socialism both party’s are prepared to sink to – maybe when get to Venezuela’s position we will wake up…..maybe?

  23. John Constantine

    Their big Australia, demographically fundamentally transformed into an endless east.coast megacity of forty million people with some way out west enclaves has an unspoken carbon bill.

    Importing ten million peasants from the low carbon third world into Australian megaxities must increase their carbon footprint?.

    Unless their swampies wargame that as Australia khymer greens itself into year zero, the masses will live off solyent green harvested from Tories and simply live sunrise to sunset and hibernate in omnisexual collextive kittenpiles during the hours of darkness.

    This demographic wave is why electing a shorten government to enable a resetting of Tory politics won’t work.

    Big Australia through skilled migration has been rejected, we will see mass airlifts as the RAAF is burnt out running an air taxi service, just as the navy was burnt out playing water taxis.

    Six years of shorten sees one and a half million voters pass on to a better world ( majority non socialists) add to this signing up to hand their united nations responsibility for ensuring Australia does its fair and equal and compassionate share in saving the teeming voteherds of Marxism, and the electoral process is in the bag of the filth forever.

    Shorten is a one trick pony and that trick is rigging elections through branch stacking, ballot box stuffing and controlling the counting.

    Six years of shorten doesn’t reset the politics of freedom, just enforces that all those that don’t go along to get ahead get crushed by the vengeful system.

    See yas all in the re- education camps ( all the best people will be in them).

  24. John Constantine

    If anything unfortunate happened to shorten, it wouldn’t matter, the system would simply supply an interchangable filthcog.

    In the unlooked for and unexpected lone wolf attack that targets turnmerkel, there seems to only be one of him.

    The future of Tory Australia rests in the hands of Isis, how dystopic is that?.

    ( although their feckless libs would probably just take the opportunity to install waleed svengali as leader instead, to preserve the progress they have made).

  25. Elizabeth (Lizzie) B.

    Reports of low productivity remote farmland already being valued solely on its value to be removed from production and returned to scrub for carbon credits.

    That works well – right up until the point it all burns to the ground and the whole thing starts again. How does that affect the CO2 book-keeping entries? What utter crap.

    Bear, they will just say that the massive burning is due to climate change and double their efforts. 🙁

  26. Elizabeth (Lizzie) B.

    Global warming will become a myth, that nobody will admit to having ever believed in.

    But don’t you know? All the ‘big freezes’ of the past few years have been due to global warming. So much so that we now have to talk about ‘climate change’. As the climate naturally changes this anthropogenic nonsense is with us forever, along for the ride.

  27. egg_

    Global warming will become a myth, that nobody will admit to having ever believed in.

    Teh hole in teh Ozone layer Mk II.
    c/- AlGore’s original quest as ‘Ozone Man’.

  28. But don’t you know? All the ‘big freezes’ of the past few years have been due to global warming. So much so that we now have to talk about ‘climate change’. As the climate naturally changes this anthropogenic nonsense is with us forever, along for the ride.

    Probably all true, Lizzie. But as people start freezing and starving to death in ever increasing numbers, the general populace are going to become more interested in solutions, not explanations. Since windfarms, solar panels, CO2 reduction and “emissions trading schemes” will have demonstrated themselves useless in tackling the problems, people will demand alternative answers.

  29. Tel

    Libertarian party guy challenges both Hillary and Trump to a dick swinging contest. That’s what politics is all about, right?

    We need guys like that. Our country stands in shame.

  30. cohenite

    FMD: renewables do not work at any price and CO2 is a marginal greenhouse gas with enormous benefits to plants. This is collective insanity. Even discussing it rationally is nuts.

  31. jupes

    FMD: renewables do not work at any price and CO2 is a marginal greenhouse gas with enormous benefits to plants. This is collective insanity. Even discussing it rationally is nuts.

    This is true. Yet we live in a society where elected politicians can make statements such as that mining coal will destroy the Great Barrier Reef and journalists nod their heads.

    We are the stupidest generation ever. Probably too stupid to survive.

  32. Teh hole in teh Ozone layer Mk II.
    c/- AlGore’s original quest as ‘Ozone Man’.

    The original blueprint, Egg. The only place an “ozone layer” exists is as a virtual mathematical construct to facilitate calculation of atmospheric density of ozone in terms of Dobson Units. And yet these days the mythical “holes” in the equally mythical “ozone layer” are responsible for everything from skin cancer to climate change.

  33. mem

    I will instruct my executer to inscribe my headstone, “A Proud Denier of Climate Change” for future generations to note. And arrange my affairs so that sceptical science outfits benefit most. In the interim I shall behold the stupidity of mankind and hope that future generations draw a lesson. As a statistician I have nothing but contempt for the methodology applied to this so called science. Astrophysicists must be equally outraged. It is a scam of huge dimensions and will run its course, but not end well.

  34. Muddy

    accelerated national ruin
    Love that phrase Myrddin. That belongs in the Cat Alternative Dictionary.

  35. Iren

    I can’t believe that any other Conservative commentators (particularly Andrew Bolt) haven’t covered this issue.

    Andrew Bolt mentioned this in passing in his interview with Peta Credlin tonight. She didn’t have much to say about it. She’s a good commentator but is still wedded to the Liberal cause, don’t ask me why after the way they’ve treated her.

    Fred Lenin
    #2043198, posted on May 30, 2016 at 4:25 pm

    From your lips to God’s ear!

  36. Muddy

    as Australia khymer greens itself into year zero, the masses will live off solyent green harvested from Tories and simply live sunrise to sunset and hibernate in omnisexual collextive kittenpiles during the hours of darkness.
    During the hours of darkness the culling will continue, John Constantine. ‘Year Zero’ is very much an appropriate phrase though, because that’s what they want. (That’s also what I call the party). To remould one first needs to destroy what exists.

  37. cohenite

    Astrophysicists must be equally outraged

    It is a strange thing but astrophysicists are the vanguard of scientific alarmism. See Michael Ashley and Michael Brown for instance. If you wear gloves you can read their bullshit at the conversation.

  38. incoherent rambler

    5 cents per kWh now party (retail). I am the founder.

  39. Biota

    memoryvault
    #2043308, posted on May 30, 2016 at 6:25 pm

    So it is going to get colder, very quickly, for next 30 years

    We’ve had an extended Autumn thanks to the el Nino, no thanks to GW. Now that the el Nino has subsided we suddenly have, at least in the Hunter Valley, the coldest morning in up to 40 years. Has me wondering whether the el Nino has masked an underlying cooling trend, continuation of the pause if you like.

  40. Ripper

    Has me wondering whether the el Nino has masked an underlying cooling trend,

    There was a big el Nino just before the little ice age

  41. Dave Wane

    There is no doubt whatsoever that Shorten and Turnbull are on a unity ticket towards the destruction of the Australian economy and its already very shaky finances.

    Obviously Shorten will get there a bit quicker than Turnbull.

    However, the end result is eventually pretty similar.

    A failed “Greece-Like” state.

    The catastrophic mess caused by RUDD-GILLARD-RUDD can never be underestimated.

  42. Biota,

    It doesn’t happen all at once in the same place. The major cause is the movement of energy via the ocean currents, principally the PDO and the AMO. It takes five to ten years to become global – starts in the NH, we in the SH are affected later, and to a lesser degree.

    Interestingly, the “extreme” weather events occur in the swing period. One need look no further than the cyclic flooding of the Brisbane River for this. This was fully understood back in the 70’s when it last occurred prior to the more recent flood, roughly 30 years later.

  43. There was a big el Nino just before the little ice age

    Ripper, contrary to all the “climate science” BS, the oceans, and not the atmosphere, are the great thermal engine of the planet. There is more heat energy in the top three metres of the ocean, than there is in the entire atmosphere. And the oceans are, on average four kilometres deep.

    A major el Nino represents a major transfer (loss) of energy from the oceans, to the atmosphere, and thence back into space. For a transient period the atmosphere is warmer and wetter. Then the cooler oceans mean a cooler, drier atmosphere, and planet. That is where we are headed now.

  44. Ripper

    A major el Nino represents a major transfer (loss) of energy from the oceans, to the atmosphere, and thence back into space.

    Yep, an el nino is actually the earth cooling down.

  45. jupes

    More alarmist propaganda from the Climate Institute swallowed hook line and sinker by the ABC:

    Research by the Climate Institute warns the potential damage bill from coastal erosion is conservatively estimated at $88 billion, excluding the value of land.

    How can anyone listen to this rubbish without at least one sceptical question popping into their head?

  46. cohenite

    Ripper

    #2043840, posted on May 30, 2016 at 11:56 pm

    A major el Nino represents a major transfer (loss) of energy from the oceans, to the atmosphere, and thence back into space.

    Yep, an el nino is actually the earth cooling down.

    Correct.

  47. The “science” that tells us that CO2 will warm the planet is incomplete.
    There is no empirical evidence to support Anthropogenic Global Warming and there is no logic behind the CO2 causes Global Warming hypothesis either because it will not pass the test of logic.
    Everyone should study Karl Popper.

    I am an economist and I know that all this will lead to poverty and a destitution for normal people far worse than any imagined rise in temperature will cause.

    See my blog http://www.rogerfromnewzealand.wordpress.com or http://www.thedemiseofchristchurch.com

  48. Johnonomous

    If Labor could achieve its 50 per cent renewables at the present price of $80 per Gigawatt hour,

    Alan Moran means $80 per gigawatthour, sometimes written as gigawatt.hour. When written in symbols that would be $80/GWh

  49. Johnonomous

    I have outsmarted myself.

    If Labor could achieve its 50 per cent renewables at the present price of $80 per Gigawatt hour,

    What Alan Moran would have meant was $80 per megawatthour, that is $80/MWh.

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