Australia’s Jonestown massacre

Do those political morons who led the coup really believe that the result we have actually had is better than the one we would have had if Tony had still been leader? And listening to the campaign speech delivered six hours after the polls had closed made me appreciate just what a guilty mind Malcolm obviously now has. Other than the brute fact of his steel-plated ego protector, he would have fallen on his sword tonight, instead of telling us what a genius he’d been in destroying a party structure and policy position that had been carefully crafted over those many years of opposition and then in the first year and a half of government. He has also created a Senate eminently workable for a Labor Government but one in which the Coalition will be hard pressed to get a single issue of substance legislated.

The good news is that even with Malcolm leading the party, there is enough sanity left in the country to have kept Labor out. And it does seem possible that we have ended up with exactly the outcome I had hoped for. I wrote a post a week or so back on you don’t have to wait three years and an election cycle (or two). There I suggested:

The strategy has to be to get the Libs over the line and then see Malcolm turfed out before the year comes to an end. Whatever he may think, the Turnbull agenda is comprehensively dead.

The death of Turnbull’s agenda is even more apparent now than it was a week ago. But if the Libs do get over the line – which is more likely than not but by no means certain – he must go. He won’t want to because he never sees the slightest fault in himself in anything he does, but that’s the reality. I don’t know how it should be arranged but arranged it must be. The Party that drank the Turnbull Kool Aid must now find renewal which will not happen until Malcolm is finally gone.

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436 Responses to Australia’s Jonestown massacre

  1. stackja

    Goanna
    #2078582, posted on July 3, 2016 at 2:44 pm
    Mediscare. If the Liberals had any nous they would have doubled the scare stakes and gone hard on “Borderscare.” But not this pathetic lot.
    Did Malcolm believe his brilliance alone would carry the day.

    MT’s brilliance shines from you know where. But the voters did not see it.

  2. Menai Pete

    The Nationals did not lose any seats – started with 9, still till have nine and got a +0.7% swing to them. The LNP (party not coalition) have only lost 4 of the 22 they had going in. The bulk of the lost seats were pure Liberal Party seats.
    Will The Nationals and the National Party element of the LNP (party) tolerate Turnbull as PM? I think not. They are in a position to demand that he step down and be replaced by a new leader who can go to the Governor General to be sworn in as PM. My tip is Peter Dutton.

  3. .

    James
    #2078198, posted on July 3, 2016 at 10:29 am
    If Hanson is a leftist then she’s just the leftist we need.

    Social conservatives have tried reaching out to small government libertarians.

    Just like in the US and the UK we got laughed at, sneered at and snubbed.

    We might not need you anymore.

    Social conservatism at any cost?

    No. I’ll stick to free markets and civil liberties.

  4. Tel

    stackja #2078575, posted on July 3, 2016 at 2:39 pm

    Are you quoting from me or from Wikipedia? Not that I’m disagreeing with the Henny Penny characterization, just don’t remember typing that.

  5. Muddy

    Those are noble thoughts TD, but the Liberal Party has a personality disorder, therefore using logic and rationality is a waste of time.

  6. Monkey's Uncle

    Rubbish. Yes Abbott fkd up as PM but this Lib campaign was an unmitigated disaster. Abbott would have wiped the floor with Shorten in this campaign and not turned away nearly as many of the conservative base

    The problem is that most of the evidence suggests a stronger relationship between the net popularity of the Prime Minister and the 2PP vote, and only a weak relationship between the net popularity of the Opposition Leader and the 2PP vote. That is why when you have an unpopular Prime Minister up against an unpopular Opposition Leader (think Gillard v. Abbott or Abbott v. Shorten) it tends to favour the Opposition, as the desire of voters to punish an unpopular incumbent tends to outweigh their dislike of an unpopular alternative

    Abbott was able to win in 2013 because he was a slightly unpopular Opposition leader, but running against a divided, amateurish and discredited government. But as an incumbent Prime Minister with net satisfaction ratings well into the terminally poor levels, he could not have won. Sure they would have pointed out what a fuckwit Shorten is, and maybe he would have clawed back some ground. But enough people had made up their minds to shaft Abbott for him to have any chance of winning.

  7. Pat Warnock

    Go away disloyal toad!

  8. Leo G

    Did Malcolm believe his brilliance alone would carry the day.

    The brilliance of narcissists with fiscal conservative/social liberal bipolar disorder doesn’t carry in daylight.

  9. a reader

    By my count 12 of the lower house traitors are either retired/lost/running behind.

  10. Yohan

    I hated Abbott (and Mal), but I always thought polls would come back for him during a re-election campaign. Maybe not enough to win big, but possibly to end up about where Malcolm is now.

    The real question is what lessons the party will take from this disaster. If they think the Liberals were not progressive enough, there is no hope for this country.

  11. Snoopy

    Abbott lost his mojo the day he decided not to deck Mark Riley. Had he done so, he’d be Prime Minister for life.

  12. Senile Old Guy

    So I hope Cats will not object to me putting down some more thoughts as we try to make sense of this disaster.

    Let me sum up:

    CRAP CAMPAIGNLEADER

  13. stackja

    Yohan
    #2078621, posted on July 3, 2016 at 3:12 pm
    I hated Abbott (and Mal), but I always thought polls would come back for him during a re-election campaign. Maybe not enough to win big, but possibly to end up about where Malcolm is now.

    The real question is what lessons the party will take from this disaster. If they think the Liberals were not progressive enough, there is no hope for this country.

    Another party will rise up if the Libs change too much.

  14. H B Bear

    Nice observation by Geoffrey Luck over on Quadrant,

    … The objective conclusion to be drawn from the result – which was pre-ordained in Paddy Manning’s Born to Rule (and my Quadrant review of the book 17.12.2015) was the inevitable crushing of an overweening ego. The Liberal campaign was constructed around the Turnbull personality; it arrogantly failed to heed either the feelings of Menzies’ Common Man, or the larger trends of political currents. Malcolm Turnbull: journalist, solicitor, barrister, corporate counsel, cleaning contractor, mining investor, merchant banker and self-supposing internet expert, had been irritating everyone he came in contact with for the last sixty years. Now, at the apogee of his egomaniacal dream, he has irritated the nation. He has had his come-uppance, and in his chagrin has demonstrated the gracelessness of the umprincipled bully he has always been. Vale MT!

    For Maocolm, the Liberal’s own narcissist KRudd, it was always about Maocolm. There is no comparison with KRudd in 2013, he genuinely saved the furniture. Waffleworth has evaporated a 30 seat majority.

  15. Makka

    “Abbott was able to win in 2013 because he was a slightly unpopular Opposition leader, but running against a divided, amateurish and discredited government. ”

    You forget that Abbott pretty much defeated Gillard in 2010. He then pulled in a 20 odd seat majority in 2013. Your argument holds no water. Abbott is streets ahead of Malturd in campaigning. He basically won 2 elections. Malturd has proven to be a dud as he always was.

    I’m not forgiving Abbott his appalling judgement as PM the worst of which was keeping Malturd in Cabinet. However, Malturd delivered true to form. A dud.

  16. Harald

    By my count 12 of the lower house traitors are either retired/lost/running behind.

    But also quite few of the Abbott supporters have lost their seats, or hang in the balance at the moment, for example:
    Eric Hutchinson
    Brett Whiteley
    Karen McNamara
    Jamie Briggs
    Andrew Nikolic
    Natasha Griggs
    Nickolas Varvaris
    Russell Matheson
    Bruce Billson (retired, but seat is lost)
    Ann Sudmalis

  17. stackja

    Harald
    #2078650, posted on July 3, 2016 at 3:45 pm

    MT is spreading the misery.

  18. MarkA

    Yohan
    a poster from an other forum

    “The thing that amazes me is that Turnbull has had such an unmitigated record of political failure – republican campaign, opposition leader, minister and 54 gutless fools decided that he would be a successful PM.”

  19. Harald

    MT is spreading the misery.

    Yep, regardless what you make of your local MP, he/she will have to vote the party line = Turnbull line.

    In individual cases it may be something else: for example Nicolic received a “thank you and goodbye” from his electorate probably over the taking the whip job from Phil Ruddock and, after that, behaving too big for his britches. If he did not see this coming…

    But on balance, I am not sure this cull has left the Lib party room with a higher proportion of Abbott voters.

  20. Speedbox

    Abbott lost his mojo the day he decided not to deck Mark Riley. Had he done so, he’d be Prime Minister for life.

    I understand that it would have been unseemly, the Left would have gone nuts, etc etc, but sweet Jesus, Riley deserved it.

  21. Mitch

    On my back of the envelope estimation, the LNP is down 3 liberals and 10 conservatives.

  22. Gab

    Unseemly? He would also be up for charges of assault and possibly GBH and be convicted. Can a person be a PM with a criminal record in Australia?

  23. Mitch

    If I was Turnbull, I’d offer Xenophon’s two house seat winners roles as cabinet secretaries and form government with them.

  24. Snoopy

    Unseemly? He would also be up for charges of assault and possibly GBH and be convicted.

    There wouldn’t be a jury in the country which would convict.

  25. Art Vandelay

    Turnbull’s election campaign strategy reminded me of a monarch visiting the colonies:

    – wave at plebs from a horse-drawn carriage;
    – attend dinner with champagne socialists to raise funds for the endangered Siberian tiger;
    – give generic, bland speech designed to offend as few people as possible;
    – wave at plebs from the back of car while on the way back to Point Piper.

  26. Brian of Moorabbin

    Unseemly? He would also be up for charges of assault and possibly GBH and be convicted.

    There wouldn’t be a jury in the country which would convict.

    You obviously are not aware of the Victorian Legal system and how it operates….

  27. Fred Lenin

    If we have a hung parliament one good thing the career muppets will do less damagethan if one of the leftists ,liberal or alp has full dictatoial power ,as theu assume they have with a “mandate”. Nothing like a bit of confusion and backstabbing to keep the bastards busy and bitching .

  28. Snoopy

    You obviously are not aware of the Victorian Legal system and how it operates….

    Fortunately, no! 🙂

  29. Monkey's Uncle

    @Makka

    You completely dance around the point I made re: the relative importance of the net popularity of the Prime Minister versus the net popularity of the Opposition Leader in determining election results.

    I never denied that Abbott was a highly effective campaigner as Opposition Leader, but it is a different scenario running as an incumbent Prime Minister. Abbott was an effective Opposition Leader and hopeless Prime Minister. Turnbull was an utterly hopeless Opposition Leader and pretty ineffective Prime Minister. End of story.

    I am neither an Abbott supporter nor a Turnbull supporter. Both are pretty flawed characters in different respects. I sincerely apologise to all for trying to be objective about the strengths and weaknesses of various scenarios, instead of just being a one-eyed tragic St Tony lover.

  30. Gab

    There wouldn’t be a jury in the country which would convict.

    AHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!

    This poor soul doesn’t understand the judiciary in this country is a leftist stronghold.

  31. Gab

    And a jury is not required for an occasion of assault.

  32. Ripper

    @Monkey’s Uncle

    One thing we can have high confidence in is that Abbott would have put up a fight .

  33. rickw

    The real question is what lessons the party will take from this disaster. If they think the Liberals were not progressive enough, there is no hope for this country.

    They’re demonstratably pretty dumb, my bet is that the will keep digging, just when parts of the world that count are attempting to turn the corner.

  34. Monkey's Uncle

    Ripper,

    As I have already argued in previous posts further up, I am sure that Abbott would have been more aggressive in pursuing Labor on a range of issues where they are vulnerable. But that wouldn’t have been enough to turn things around given the extent to which public opinion had hardened against Abbott. He would have clawed back some of Labor’s lead in the polls when he was still leader, but not enough.

    It is simply not possible for an incumbent government to be returned with a Prime Minister with net satisfaction levels as far in the red as Abbott was. Too many people vote on the basis of the Prime Minister, regardless of their views of the alternative. His position was terminal, and it is just wishful thinking to suggest otherwise.

  35. Linden

    Yes a gentleman politician who somehow thinks that his opposition plays by queensburys rules, especially the like of Shorten, will never win an election. Turnbull never had or never has the political street smarts, that what I think or as native dog instinct to counter attack at Shorten. That’s the libs problem in a nutshell, there campaign manager is also a dickhead, not a fucking clue!

  36. Makka

    “You completely dance around the point I made re: the relative importance of the net popularity of the Prime Minister versus the net popularity of the Opposition Leader in determining election results.”

    No I didn’t. I just completely disagreed with your premise by citing the facts of Abbott’s campaign performances. I maintain that Abbott would have run a far better campaign than Turdbull and would not have lost so much of the base that Turdbull had alienated. Nett result would be a lower seat loss.

  37. Ubique

    A great deal can be understood by seeing Turnbull for what he is – a pillar (or more accurately, pillock) of the establishment, that left of centre ruling class now occupying the commanding heights of society across government, bureaucracy, academia, media, the church, commerce and industry, and now finally the military. Tony Abbott was never part of this bien pensant establishment and seen as an upstart outsider who needed to be put in his place. The establishment cooperated to remove Abbott and install its favoured son Turnbull.

    Yesterday’s election was very much a commoners’ revolt, an anti-establishment uprising. As the establishment have little, if any, contact with commoners, Turnbull’s rejection at the hands of the electorate took most of the establishment, including the bookies, by complete surprise. The same theme has just played out in Britain with the Brexit, and is showing every sign of being repeated across the EU.

    Power to the people.

  38. Harald

    Looking at the details of:
    1. vote counts right now in the seats where incumbents are trailing or seats which are too close
    2. taking into account the number of postal votes yet to be counted in this election
    3. taking into account how the primary vote of postal votes differed from the general votes in 2013:

    The Liberals very likely will lose these seats:
    Capricornia
    Cowan
    Herbert
    Flynn
    Longman
    Lindsay
    Macquarie
    Lyons
    Braddon
    Eden-Monaro
    Mayo
    Dobell
    Murray
    Bass
    Solomon
    Burt
    Barton
    Macarthur
    Paterson

    There are not enough postal votes left in the game to claw back the number of votes the Libs are currently behind.

    And they will pick up Gilmore.

    That would come to total net loss of 18 seats, bring them down to 72 and we have a proper hung parliament, with McGowan, Katter, 2 NXT and 1 Green on the crossbench.

    Shorten has a plurality, I think, with 73 seats. But not a majority. It will become dangerous if he can broker a deal with the Greens, NXT and McGowan, but I doubt he will have any appetite to do this, given recent experiences.

  39. Makka

    “It is simply not possible for an incumbent government to be returned with a Prime Minister with net satisfaction levels as far in the red as Abbott was.”

    You have no idea what Abbott’s satisfaction level would have been at election time

  40. Mitch

    The Liberals very likely will lose these seats:
    Capricornia
    Cowan
    Herbert
    Flynn
    Longman
    Lindsay
    Macquarie
    Lyons
    Braddon
    Eden-Monaro
    Mayo
    Dobell
    Murray
    Bass
    Solomon
    Burt
    Barton
    Macarthur
    Paterson

    Should I take these as listed in ascending likelihood? I’m not convinced the top three will fall, though I don’t really mind if Simpkins and Jones go. But like you say, Shorten would need the Greens and so won’t want it.

  41. James

    If you seriously still believe that Abbott would have done worse than Turnbull did you may be watching too much QnA.

  42. 8

    Suck fuck Malcbeth.

    Just desserts for your massive ego.

  43. Marcus Classis

    OK, election done. I’m off again. See ya!

  44. Monkey's Uncle

    You have no idea what Abbott’s satisfaction level would have been at election time

    Yes, I’m sure everything would have magically turned around and people would have decided they actually like Abbott by election day.

    Public opinion had hardened against Abbott. Voters get to the point where they stop listening and have simply made up their minds to shaft the incumbent. Abbott was at that point with voters.

  45. Harald

    In ascending likely hood, yes.

    No guarantee, to be sure. But if you take Capricornia for example:
    The Libs are 991 behind in the vote count.
    There are 7968 postal votes.
    So the postal vote would have to break to Libs way by 12.4% more than the general vote to get back to break even in that seat.

    Looking at the 2013 result:
    The postal vote primary vote to the Coalition indeed was higher in the postal vote, than in the general vote, but only by about 8%. So based on last year’s numbers, clawing back enough is not likely. It is likely to fall the other way.

    Using the same method:
    Cowan postal votes would have to go to the Coalition by 18% more so than the total vote, for the Coalition to claw back and break even.
    In Cowan in 2013 indeed the postal vote did go the Coalition, more so than the total vote, but only by 7% of the primary vote. Likely not enough to claw back to break even.

    Herbert: 17.7% of the Postal vote additional to the Coalition required.
    In 2013: about 4% of the primary vote higher postal vote for the Coalition. Again: likely not enough.

  46. Makka

    “Yes, I’m sure everything would have magically turned around and people would have decided they actually like Abbott by election day.”

    No, I’ve never said that. Are a verbeller too then? I’m saying that Abbott campaigns much stronger and his 2 contested elections prove it. You on the other hand have just a theory. Turnbull’s record is intact. He’s always and still is a dud. It’s flawed opinions like yours that keep breathing life into Malturd’s PM ship when clearly it’s now in the toilet along with the Liberal Party. It doesn’t help.

  47. Splatacrobat

    The medicare texts came from Qld Labor. Wait for the next election.

    If they get away with this lie, the next bogus text message will purport to be coming from the BoM warning voters that their house will be washed away if they vote LNP.

  48. Monkey's Uncle

    If you seriously still believe that Abbott would have done worse than Turnbull did you may be watching too much QnA

    Q and A, even more of a mind numbingly boring circle jerk than the Abbott lovers club.

    I don’t need to watch Q and A to know that an incumbent Prime Minister with a net satisfaction rating in the area of minus 30 plus would not have done better than a Prime Minister with a net satisfaction rating in the area of 0 to minus 10. You just need data and a functioning brain.

    As I say, Turnbull is clearly a dud and a ridiculously overrated politician in terms of his alleged political skills. But to think that Abbott would have done any better requires heroic assumptions.

  49. Splatacrobat

    How about a text from Veteran affairs that the LNP will scrap the Gold card.
    What about a text from Centerlink that says the Labor is giving everybody $1000 if they vote Labor.
    The options are endless.

  50. Roger

    Well well, Maladroit Bligh Turnbull Esq. strikes again.

    Only this time it’s not the republican cause that suffers the consequences, but the nation.

    Thanks to the 53.

  51. Ripper

    @Monkey’s Uncle

    How do you explain the canning by-election then? The result was is direct contrast to your theory.

  52. Makka

    “Q and A, even more of a mind numbingly boring circle jerk than the Abbott lovers club.”

    More garbage. Most here were openly and strongly critical of Abbott.

  53. Monkey's Uncle

    No, I’ve never said that. Are a verbeller too then?

    Yes, I’m obviously a world champion verballer for taking your statement that we don’t know what Abbott’s net approval would have been by election day to mean that you presumably believe it would have improved from where it was when he lost the leadership. What a precious, pretentious little thing you are.

    If you don’t believe Abbott’s net approval would have improved, what is your point?

  54. Mitch

    Harald,

    So all the pre-poll votes have been counted?

    Wrote a long, numbers heavy response and in the process answered my own question.

    Likelihood a final vote with just 250 or less in it will be recontested?

  55. HRT

    If I were in Turnbull’s shoes I would be in the final stages of concluding the voters were a noisome rabble who, because they did not recognise quality when it was placed before them , were unworthy of me.

    Thus, I would be writing my resignation speech. Unfortunately, Sportsbet is not offering a bet on a Turnbull resignation. Too bad, I would have bet on it.

  56. Harald

    So all the pre-poll votes have been counted?

    No, not yet. But going through the 2013 results I found that there was far less difference between pre-poll voting and general total vote outcomes on the one hand, and postal votes and the general total vote outcomes on the other.

    In other words: The postal vote is where the claw backs should happen.

  57. Makka

    “Yes, I’m obviously a world champion verballer for taking your statement that we don’t know what Abbott’s net approval would have been by election day to mean that you presumably believe it would have improved from where it was when he lost the leadership. What a precious, pretentious little thing you are.”

    Last time I’ll state this sport and I’ll dumb it down just for you. Abbott proved his campaigning ability by winning 1 election and very nearly 2. The first one was taken from him IMO. He gifted the LNP with a 20+ seat majority in Govt. He has campaigning runs on the board. Whereas all Malturd has is a clear history of duds and disappointment. I don’t buy your premise that Malturd achieved more than Abbot could for the reasons cited.

  58. Monkey's Uncle

    I’m saying that Abbott campaigns much stronger and his 2 contested elections prove it. You on the other hand have just a theory.

    You are comparing apples with oranges. As I keep trying to explain, it is easier campaigning as an Opposition Leader (particularly against an inept government) than it is as an incumbent Prime Minister.

    In Abbott’s two elections as Opposition Leader, he had one close loss and one clear victory (both against the most amateurish federal government we have had for a long time). Turnbull has one election as an incumbent Prime Minister that he may still win. How do you compare the two?

    As I say, Turnbull is clearly a highly overrated politician. But there is little reason to believe, given available evidence, that Abbott would have done as well or better at this election.

  59. Mitch

    Comes down to how effective Labor’s mediscare lie was I guess, seeing as it geared up pretty late. I’ve just seen one of the medicare text messages being talked about. Holy shit is all I can say.

  60. Zulu Kilo Two Alpha

    How about a text from Veteran affairs that the LNP will scrap the Gold card.
    What about a text from Centerlink that says the Labor is giving everybody $1000 if they vote Labor.
    The options are endless.

    If you have a nasty, cruel little mind like mine, the possibilities are endless-

    A text from Centrelink that the Liberals will reduce the sole parents benefit to three children – retrospectively.

    A text from Centrelink that the Liberals will be reviewing all D.S.P’s

  61. Harald

    Mitch,
    Personally I would be surprised if the electorate would fall for that type of phone spam. It looks like a diversionary tactic – intended to (A) buy time, and (B) shift blame. It would look much better for Turnbull if he could show mediscare had an effect. The optics for him would be better, of course. But also in practical terms it would be good for Turnbull if he can get this election result voided in whole or in part.

    If he can’t and the election result is valid, as per the Lib party room rules, there has to be a leadership spill. Hung parliament, or not. I do not think Turnbull is looking forward to a spill right now.

    The best result I can see here:
    Postal votes show that the swing was against Turnbull anyway. (Which is what I suspect.)
    Leadership spill is held in the lib party room, as per the rules.
    Abbott throws his hat in the ring, Turnbull is gone.
    If we have a truly hung parliament with no way out -> writs will be issues: a re-run of the election. Abbott campaigning this time.
    Campaign on the unions, boats returning, debt blowout – run a decent scare campaign and Abbott would win.

    One can hope…. there is a long way to go.

  62. Leo G

    As I keep trying to explain, it is easier campaigning as an Opposition Leader (particularly against an inept government) than it is as an incumbent Prime Minister.

    Then Bill Shorten must be at least twice as inept an Opposition Leader as Malcolm Turnbull is inept as a Government Leader. The swing against the Government has been close to 4%, but only half of that swung to Shorten’s Opposition.

  63. Leigh Lowe

    HB Bear at 3:42.
    Luck is on the money.
    This whole thing has been a cult of personality centred on Maocolm.
    It is wholly, 100%, totally (no minority shareholding) owned by Malcolm.

  64. Monkey's Uncle

    Comes down to how effective Labor’s mediscare lie was I guess, seeing as it geared up pretty late. I’ve just seen one of the medicare text messages being talked about. Holy shit is all I can say.

    It is hard to believe how fucking stupid some people can be. But apparently there are large numbers of people that think:
    a) it is possible to ‘privatise’ what is basically a taxpayer subsidy or fund rather than an actual service
    b) said government entity would notify people of said ‘privatisation’ on election day

    We always knew Labor rely on low-information muppets to stay competitive. Yet now we know the depths of dishonesty, and the depths of stupidity by voters, that the country can resort to.

    There are times in life when you know something is fucked up, but then you realise it is even more fucked up than you thought.

  65. Mitch

    I mms’d a friend the mediscare text with the caption “Actual text sent to voters”.

    His response? “Hahaha that’s brilliant”

    I then had to explain to him that it’s not actually from medicare, and that it’s illegal whether it was or not.

    This is what we’re up against.

  66. Mitch

    Harald,

    Alternatively, Scomo throws his hat in the ring as well and the conservative vote is split, like Hockey did to Turnbull back in the day.

    I will be voting Labor next election if Turnbull is dumped for Abbott or Morrison. Still stewing on who would be acceptable. Possibly Christian Porter, but I’m obviously biased as a West Australian.

  67. Makka

    “Turnbull has one election as an incumbent Prime Minister that he may still win. How do you compare the two?”

    The loss of around 20 seats in 1 campaign and almost losing Govt vs the gain of around 30 over 2 campaigns and gaining Govt.

  68. Zulu Kilo Two Alpha

    Still stewing on who would be acceptable. Possibly Christian Porter, but I’m obviously biased as a West Australian.

    As a fellow Sand groper, I’m thinking Christian Porter, or Andrew Hastie in the long term.

  69. Harald

    Morrison does not appear to be ready. I think he went backwards in the last year.
    Same probably goes for Porter: not ready yet. He’s only been there since 2013 and he’s not had a major portfolio yet on the federal level.

    I am not a fan either, but Abbott’s the onbly one ready to go right now. There is no one else to pick up the pieces, especially in the very demanding situation we likely have now: hung HoR, hung Senate, nightmare crossbench in both and possibly another election in about a month’s time.

    It is either Abbott or Turnbull.

  70. Monkey's Uncle

    “Turnbull has one election as an incumbent Prime Minister that he may still win. How do you compare the two?”

    The loss of around 20 seats in 1 campaign and almost losing Govt vs the gain of around 30 over 2 campaigns and gaining Govt.

    Right. Because it stands to reason that it is just as difficult to gain seats when in opposition, coming off a lower base of seats, and running against an incompetent government than it is when you are actually in government, defending a larger number of seats, and voter memories of the previous inept government are fading. Shit you’re brilliant mate!

  71. cohenite

    8

    #2078784, posted on July 3, 2016 at 6:02 pm

    Suck fuck Malcbeth.

    Just desserts for your massive ego.

    It’s not turnbull’s ego which is the issue its the fact he’s useless.

  72. Monkey's Uncle

    It is either Abbott or Turnbull.

    No it’s not, unless they want another spell in the wilderness. They are both liabilities.

    ScoMo has to step up.

  73. Elizabeth (Lizzie) B.

    Morrison does not appear to be ready. I think he went backwards in the last year.

    He would be better; seen as an escape from the Turnbull/Abbott feuding. He has worked with both, and he has a track record on the boats which is good. His approach is muscular and his communications are direct. He’d have three years to build up recognition as few people know him, as the 12 undecided voters on Sky showed the night before the media blackout; blank looks re who he was from the pic put up. He was good in the early days taking no prisoners when interviewed by the ABC and the media in general – shooting their gotchas right back to them.

    I sincerely hope Malcolm gets dumped and Morrison takes over. He may surprise us, unhampered by Turnbull’s muzzle and hubris. He may not be the economic version we want, but he could restore some sense of social conservatism to the Liberal Party. He is not a ‘silvertail’, he’s a practicing Christian, and is in his persona an ‘ordinary’ man.

  74. Elizabeth (Lizzie) B.

    Snap, Monkey’s Uncle. I just saw you are on the same wavelength as me re this.

  75. strange

    I love the sound of dummies being spat on Catallaxy.

    As I keep trying to explain, it is easier campaigning as an Opposition Leader (particularly against an inept government) than it is as an incumbent Prime Minister.
    It might be easier, but not as successful. Give me incumbency any day. How many elections have been won from opposition from WW2? Only 1949, 1972, 1983, 1986, 2007 and 2013.

  76. candy

    The thing with Scott Morrison is, that people don’t like his overtalking, bluffing type style, arrogant.

    He talks fast, he talks over people, so you don’t know what the issue is about. He diverts.

    In the end, it does not trick people.

  77. Rococo Liberal

    The thing I got out of this election is that the ALP is actually the big loser. Even against the inept Turnbull it couldn’t get its primary vote over 36%. It was flattered by a redistribution in NSW that the Liberals handled badly.
    In days of old Labor would have walked in that election. But as the unions have so few members, the party has no real resonance with large swathes of the voters and its policies are disjointed and silly it will never get back Federally unless the LNP cocks up even more.
    This election has proved that if there was any truth in the idea pushed by some, such as Antony Green, that Labor was the natural party of Government after 1983, it has been totally proven wrong now.
    Think about it. These were the best circumstances for Labor in a long time. You had a disunited Liberal party with an inept leader whose political tin ear was only matched by Gillard and Rudd. You also had the legacy of Abbott’s really strange regime, which was strong in some respects but very weak in others. Shorten is not a bad leader. He is reasonably personable and doesn’t really have a huge hate factor running against him like Rudd. He had the party more or less united behind him and what happens? 35%
    The Lib/Nat coalition is the natural government of this country.

  78. Makka

    You really are fkn dim Uncle.

    A PM who loses over 20 seats and potentially Govt in a single election (after a previous stint as a dud party leader) has a better campaigning record that a LNP leader who gains almost 30 seats and wins Govt to boot after 2 very successful campaigns. You think Malturd has put in a very credible performance. Yes indeed let’s heed you convoluted retard logic Uncle.

  79. Zulu Kilo Two Alpha

    1949, 1972, 1983, 1986, 2007 and 2013.

    1986 election? WHAT 1986 election?

  80. Harald

    I would like to be proven wrong on Morrison. I would be able to live with that very well and, if given the option, I would vote for Libs under his leadership in both houses.

    (But I must say: I have the impression he was better positioned during the last spill. I had hoped for him to step up already then. Since that moment I think his standing in the party room has more likely gone down than improved.)

  81. Elizabeth (Lizzie) B.

    Possibly Christian Porter, but I’m obviously biased as a West Australian.

    Never heard of him; wouldn’t recognize him. Like the vast millions in New South Wales and other States. Morrison is ahead because of the boats – that is a cut-through issue still and it contains an element of continuity of policy; a much wanted policy.

  82. Mitch

    Assuming we now go full term, when’s the latest the next election will be?

  83. Elizabeth (Lizzie) B.

    (But I must say: I have the impression he was better positioned during the last spill. I had hoped for him to step up already then. Since that moment I think his standing in the party room has more likely gone down than improved.)

    He wasn’t better positioned then; Malcolm would have had his neck. It’s his possible future standing in the electorate that I’m more interested in than the rat’s nest that is the Party room.

  84. Monkey's Uncle

    You think Malturd has put in a very credible performance.

    Now you are just making shit up and attributing it to me. I never said that Turnbull has done well. I simply say that, given available evidence, it is hard to believe Abbott would have done as well or better.

    You are a moron if you don’t understand that it is easier to gain seats when starting from a lower base and running against an unpopular incumbent than it is when running as an incumbent and starting from a higher base of seats.

  85. P

    Never heard of him; wouldn’t recognize him.

    He looks O.K. and has a good record with State govt of W.A.
    My only wish is that he would learn to tie a necktie properly, regardless of whether it be a Windsor knot or half Windsor or Four-in-hand etc.

  86. Artist Formerly Known As Infidel Tiger

    Morrison is unelectable.

    He’s a soft left turd.

  87. Monkey's Uncle

    (after a previous stint as a dud party leader)

    More red herrings and shifting of goal posts. As I have said before, Turnbull was a crap Opposition Leader. He would not have done as well as Abbott in 2010. But it is a different kettle of fish running as an incumbent PM than as an Opposition Leader.

    Abbott was an effective Opposition Leader but hopeless PM. Turnbull was a hopeless Opposition Leader and somewhat ineffective PM. (No doubt this all will go straight over the top of your silly head).

  88. Harald

    He’s a soft left turd.

    They all are.

    All we can do is try to pick the least mushy one.

  89. Elizabeth (Lizzie) B.

    The Lib/Nat coalition is the natural government of this country.

    I’d really like to think so but the times are not with them. Too many people on the public payroll or teat, one way and another, and independence is seen as an older morality. Also, two new religions in play: one is Islam, and the other is Climatic Gaia. Neither of these is losing customers. Both need serious ideological reform for things to change.

    Hard work is needed to explain to the electorate what policies might change the country for the better. Labor goes straight for any family’s main concerns – health and education. This nexus of family key concerns and Labor must be broken by showing how anti-family they really are. People vote for family.

  90. Zulu Kilo Two Alpha

    He looks O.K. and has a good record with State govt of W.A.

    Christian Porter is my local member – he was State Treasurer, and was being spoken of as a future State Premier. Fine old Liberal family, doncherknow.

  91. H B Bear

    The Lib/Nat coalition is the natural government of this country.

    Not sure I would go that far. There is certainly a social conservatism that is not recognised by the media and a lot of what passes publicly as “the national conversation” is well left of where the true balance lies. This accounts for a lot of Howard’s longevity.

    For mine, Labor’s promises in health and education carry more weight if people think the country can afford them but if things look a bit rocky economically then the Liberals come back into the picture. Frankly if either party could provide stable leadership and greater certainly around peoples’ future they would walk it in.

  92. Makka

    “I simply say that, given available evidence, it is hard to believe Abbott would have done as well or better.”

    What fking evidence, you dickhead?

    You mean the miserable history of Malturd as Lib leader, his previous appalling polling history? His dismal campaigning and now loss of 20+ seats and possibly Govt? The hatred Malturd has generated in the conservative base against him. Or do you mean Abbott’s 2 successful election campaigns one of which delivered Govt?

    What happened yesterday was just another chapter in the book of Malturd’s disappointing performances. That is historical fact.

    From all this you manage to conclude Malturd has achieved a better result than Abbott would have been able to. You’re a fkn lard head.

  93. P

    Christian Porter is my local member – he was State Treasurer, and was being spoken of as a future State Premier. Fine old Liberal family, doncherknow.

    Then will someone please teach him to tie his necktie. At present it is weak and pathetic.

  94. Snoopy

    Morrison’s less than stellar performance as Treasurer damaged him irreparably and I don’t think that was an accident.

  95. Rob MW

    The Australian – 3 August 2011 – Malcolm Turnbull “You win elections by persuading people who didn’t vote for you at the last election to vote for you. Elections are always won at the centre.”

    It don’t get any more ‘……at the centre…….’ than this Mal…….lol…..lol. Looks like a winning ‘Centre’ vote is not the equivalence of a left leaning fuckwit as Mal supposed.

  96. Snoopy

    What happened yesterday was just another chapter in the book of Malturd’s disappointing performances. That is historical fact.

    That’s a bit harsh. He did win the Spycatcher trial in err, 1986.

  97. Mitch

    Something I think should be said is the conservative wing of the Liberal Party was transparent that they were stalling on gay marriage. And 10 of those stallers have now lost their seats, against 3 moderates (the rest I don’t know where they stand). If they had simply let it through once Turnbull took over, like he suggested, and therefore neutralised it as an issue the election could have been much more about economic management, Turnbull’s authenticity would have been much less in question, and he would have done slightly better (and slightly better would have been enough in this case).

    I don’t accept that Tony Abbott would have won this election. One of the biggest issues I had with his leadership was that his cabinet was basically John Howard’s second eleven, and John Howard lost office 9 years ago. The Liberal Party needed the renewal it’s now seen (though I’m glad a 20-something cabinet member has lost his seat- go do something with your life, Wyatt- and I say that as a 20-something). It’s also my understanding that, since Turnbull took over, the Coalition has been much more a traditional cabinet-style government. Whatever you think of either man, this should always be the case.

    I think from hereon a middle ground might be to replace Morrison (who I wish had followed through on social services, I think he could have achieved great things) with Porter as Treasurer, and have an on paper agreement for a seemly transition from Turnbull to Porter when there’s about a year left in this new term. At the next election both Tony Abbott and Malcolm Turnbull should retire.

  98. Leo G

    There is certainly a social conservatism that is not recognised by the media …

    A mindset part conservative, part anarchist-progressive, can lead only to insanity.

  99. Kool Aid Kid

    Makka is among many who confuse personal ideals with government. So long as people behave badly toward the coalition we will see further erosion of what government is.
    Abbott by the way never expected to get the leadership and lost it because his colleagues saw him leading them to disaster. His leadership made the way for shorten to run his health scare. And his inability to move on or get a job has caused trouble that helped the minority players.
    Abetz has presided over a disaster in Tasmania. Bernardi is a poster child for Xenophon. And look at what the party wars have created in nsw and Queensland.
    Time to stop dreaming.

  100. Makka

    Shorter Kool Aid Kid: Move to the Left. It’s so much easier over here.

    Yeah, nah.

  101. Snoopy

    Bernardi is a poster child for Xenophon.

    Put the bong down, KAK.

  102. Artist Formerly Known As Infidel Tiger

    Latham vs Katter.

    Battle of the nut bags.

  103. Makka

    Kid,

    Don’t make the mistake of thinking I am a fan of Abbott. I’m not. I have been very critical of Abbott’s performance as PM. I do however recognise his ability to win elections and mount effective credible campaigns. He’s a scrapper and he manages to hold the base with him IMO. Malturd by comparison is a waffling fool with a record of disasters. It just got longer and it’s no surprise.

  104. Mick Gold Coast QLD

    From Rococo Liberal at 8:17 pm:

    “…
    This election has proved that if there was any truth in the idea pushed by some, such as Antony Green, that Labor was the natural party of Government after 1983, it has been totally proven wrong now.
    Think about it. These were the best circumstances for Labor in a long time. You had a disunited Liberal party with an inept leader whose political tin ear was only matched by Gillard and Rudd. You also had the legacy of Abbott’s really strange regime, which was strong in some respects but very weak in others. …
    The Lib/Nat coalition is the natural government of this country.”

    In 71 post war years the Coalition has been in government for 46 of ’em (65%) and Labor for 25 (35%).

    In 34 years since 1983 Labor has been in power for 19 years (56%) and the Coalition for 15 (44%). Green is being characteristically disingenuous in choosing 1983, when thirteen years of Hawke and Keating commenced in, as you point out, the very “best circumstances” for Labor.

  105. Mitch

    In 71 post war years the Coalition has been in government for 46 of ’em (65%) and Labor for 25 (35%).

    And if you pick the start of a Liberal government’s (Fraser, Howard) term as the reference year, surprise surprise, Liberal’s in front. Whoop-di-frickin-do.

  106. Mitch

    Ah, I’ve read and quoted your post incorrectly. My apologies.

  107. KAK is strangely reminiscent of aussiepundit.

  108. Christian Porter? No thank you. He has consistently underimpressed me locally. Where is his action on smaller government, lower taxes etc?

    He is Malcolm Turnbull waiting to happen all over again.

  109. Menai Pete

    There’s a fly in the election ointment that the commentariat seem to have overlooked.
    The National Party is a separate entity from the Liberal Party. It went into the election with nine seats and finished with nine seats and a plus 0.7% swing.
    The LNP (the Qld party, not the coalition) exists as an amalgamation of Liberals and Nationals in Queensland, but many of its members identify as National Party when they split into party rooms – the Qld LNP lost only 4 seats out of the 22 they had going into the election. All of the other lost seats were Liberal Party seats.
    The Nationals did not like the Turnbull coup and demanded changes to their agreement with the Liberal Party after it happened.
    Turnbull arrogantly usurped the Nationals’ separate identity by running with the Turnbull Coalition logo at the start of the campaign, but quickly changed it to the Turnbull Liberal Team after complaints from the Nationals.
    After this debacle, will The Nationals and the National Party element of the Qld LNP tolerate Turnbull as PM? I think not. They could, if they wish, withdraw from their coalition agreement and leave Turnbull out in the cold or use that threat to demand that he step down and be replaced by a new leader who can go to the Governor General to be sworn in as PM.

  110. Makka

    “KAK is strangely reminiscent of aussiepundit.

    I wonder how aussie will spin Malturd’s great vistory. He’s been very quiet of late.

  111. stackja

    Mick Gold Coast QLD
    #2079015, posted on July 3, 2016 at 9:25 pm

    Menzies had Evatt who kept giving.
    ALP changed school funding to help Gough.

  112. Kool Aid Kid

    Makka: winning elections is not the point. Abbott win and had nothing. As did various characters since Howard, who had an agenda and implemented it with support across the party. Today’s parties are full of indulgent wankers who count their achievements in frequent flyer points.
    Australia need government that works. Saturday’s result is another example of denial. Medicare can’t be private. But equally the public health budget is unsustainable.

  113. stackja

    Menai Pete
    #2079029, posted on July 3, 2016 at 9:35 pm

    Menzies had problems with the Country Party.

    On Lyons’s death in April 1939, the U.A.P. elected Menzies to party leadership. Sir Earle Page announced that in consequence the Country Party would no longer work in coalition with the U.A.P., and launched on Menzies an attack described by the Sydney Morning Herald as ‘a violation of the decencies of debate without parallel in the annals of Federal Parliament’.

    Nevertheless, though temperamentally different, Menzies and McEwen saw eye to eye on most matters. On the eve of one Federal election in the 1960s Menzies could write to McEwen: ‘There never has been such a partnership as this in the political history of Australia’.

    Preservation of the Liberal-Country Party coalition was in fact one of the three achievements on which, near the end of his parliamentary career, Menzies looked back with most pride.

  114. Mick Gold Coast QLD

    From Mitch at 9:31 pm:

    “Ah, I’ve read and quoted your post incorrectly. My apologies.”

    Thank you. I selected “post war” for the reasons that the Liberals only came into existence about then and that 1946 marked the end of a period where extraordinary external events had an impact on internal politics.

  115. They are in a position to demand that he step down and be replaced by a new leader who can go to the Governor General to be sworn in as PM. My tip is Peter Dutton.

    Speaking on behalf of the left, may I say we are all shitscared of this scenario. Dutton is our worst nightmare. Please, please don’t unleash him on us.

  116. James

    Oh PLEASE can Aussiepundit come back?

    I can’t wait to hear how this is all the fault of Abbott

  117. Zulu Kilo Two Alpha

    Speaking on behalf of the left, may I say we are all shitscared of this scenario. Dutton is our worst nightmare. Please, please don’t unleash him on us.

    I can’t think of any better reason for unleashing Dutton on the Left.

  118. Mitch

    Menai Pete:

    The LNP (the Qld party, not the coalition) exists as an amalgamation of Liberals and Nationals in Queensland, but many of its members identify as National Party when they split into party rooms – the Qld LNP lost only 4 seats out of the 22 they had going into the election. All of the other lost seats were Liberal Party seats.

    Queensland has 30 of the nations seats, 20%. Losing 4 of them means nationwide the Liberal’s would have to lose more than 20 (which they won’t) to do worse than the LNP did in Queensland.

    Alternatively, before the election they had 20 of the Coalition’s 90 (nominally 88) seats. That’s 22.2%, so the Coalition natiowide would have to lose 18 to have done as poorly as Queensland. Now, they plausibly have lost 18, but it’s ridiculous to say the National brand is doing well.

    Taking what seems to be the only state where the National’s are a standalone party, WA, the National’s suffered a Senate swing of 0.5% whilst the Liberal’s increased their vote by 4.37%.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/federal-election-2016/results/senate/#swa

  119. Habib

    If state issued played any role in the Qld vote it would’ve been the ALP getting reamed up here, currently there’s a state Labor government that is more retarded than Greens economic policy, and more obnoxious and patronising than a solar power ad. All loses are directly attributable to Lord Wentworthless and the invertebrates who elevated him to a leadership role. Wish a few more of these dich carp were given the arse.

  120. I remain cowering in fear at the very thought, Zulu.

  121. Dozer

    Something I think should be said is the conservative wing of the Liberal Party was transparent that they were stalling on gay marriage.

    The election was not about this peripheral side show so somehow, someway, you probably should stick that analogy where the sun don’t shine.

    Try instead two left of center parties fighting over the same patch of ground with the same aims and goals but only differentiated by one party being more efficient at rolling a backstabber and narcissist into one person instead of the other side taking two people to achieve the same. You see Australian’s don’t like efficiency without a pay rise as compensation.

  122. Zulu Kilo Two Alpha

    I remain cowering in fear at the very thought, Zulu.

    Glad to see you acknowledge your rightful place, Monty. No need to thank me.

  123. Monkey's Uncle

    It might be easier, but not as successful. Give me incumbency any day. How many elections have been won from opposition from WW2? Only 1949, 1972, 1983, 1986, 2007 and 2013.

    And what proportion of elections during that time have seen governments gain ground versus lose ground? It is true that governments are usually returned to office. But it is also true that governments usually lose ground to the opposition in most elections. Yet my mate Makka thinks you can just compare how much ground is gained from opposition against an unpopular government versus how much ground is gained or lost by an incumbent government once more time has elapsed from the previous unpopular government. Abbott gained ground from the low water mark. Turnbull lost ground from the high water mark. Ergo, Abbott is the better choice for all seasons!

    Not the sharpest tool in the shed is our Makka!

  124. Uncle makes a good point. We will get three years max out of Turnbull, as even if he survives this one, he will never win another election as leader. Hanson has a full six years, though. Thanks Malcolm!

  125. H B Bear

    Turnbull lost ground from the high water mark.

    Turnbull didn’t lose ground. He was holed below the water line.

  126. Habib

    Depends on where Hanson winds up on the senate list, 1st six in every state get 6 years, lower 6 get 3 years. Will be the majors in most states filling the top slots, yet again looking after themselves and their own interests. I’d call them swine but at least they produce bacon.

  127. FFS – two threads, over 2,500 comments, and about half of the debating the outcome IF Abbott had been Leader of the Liberals and taken them into the election . He wasn’t and he didn’t. You may as well be debating how many angels can dance on the head of a pin.

    For pity’s sake give it a bloody rest.

  128. Fisky

    Hanson got 1.2 quotas in her own right so you’d expect she’d probably be in the top six.

  129. Habib

    More than likely. She’ll be one of the few not from Lablib. Even the Greens will mostly be only able to insult our intelligence for three years, one of the few upsides of a bent system.

  130. Andreas

    There’s a detailed discussion of how they determine who gets 6 and who gets 3 years on Antony Green’s blog from 2014: How Senate Rotations are Re-established After a Double Dissolution

    There are two methods they could use and the Senate will vote to decide which method to use.

  131. egg_

    Turnbull lost ground from the high water mark.

    Mixed metaphors?
    He valiantly Captained the Turtanic?

  132. JC

    m0nty
    #2079104, posted on July 3, 2016 at 10:59 pm

    Uncle makes a good point. We will get three years max out of Turnbull, as even if he survives this one, he will never win another election as leader. Hanson has a full six years, though. Thanks Malcolm!

    You can also say that about the Greens Fatboy. Shut up as you’re not on high ground.

  133. JC

    Monst

    Can you put your economist hat on and explain the liars party governing model.

    They want to raise six extra taxes and also want to increase the deficit by $150 billion a year for four years.

    Can you explain how this results in higher growth etc and where we will be at the end of 4 years.

    Thanks.

  134. Makka

    “Abbott gained ground from the low water mark. Turnbull lost ground from the high water mark. Ergo, Abbott is the better choice for all seasons!”

    You really are a fkn monkey, aren’t you. As well as a verbelling slime.

    What I have said is Abbott is better at campaigning than Turnbull. Abbott has run 2 very successful campaigns and won Govt whereas Turdbull has not only lost nearly all Abbott gained, he has all but lost Govt and in his appalling campaign. I’m comparing just these two. It follows a pattern of Malturd fk ups. I can’t help it if you are as thick as pigshit and can’t work out from historical fact who has performed best.

    You should fk off back to Malturds camp and comfort your useless leader. He’s going to need all the arse kissers he can muster in the weeks to come.

  135. JC

    The thing I got out of this election is that the ALP is actually the big loser. Even against the inept Turnbull it couldn’t get its primary vote over 36%.

    Who cares RC. What matters who has the keys to the PM’s office.

  136. 144 Makka.
    That’s how many angels I reckon can dance on the head of a pin.
    Prove me wrong. I give up. I’m going to bed.

  137. Makka

    Malturd is such a great campaigner and political strategist, he pissed away near double digit poll lead so he could demonstrate to everyone, as if they had forgotten, what a waffling ninny he is. He then calls an election 6 month ahead of schedule with one of the longest campaign periods on record. His campaign slogan was “look at me” and stabilidy. He’s so smart at campaigning , he didn’t even have the guts to call out Labor on their big blatant Mediscare lie or hardly make mention of the reson for the DD- the Unions.

    Your’re right Monkey’s A*sehole, I now agree with you. Where would the LNP be without the towering intellect of Malturd.

    Fmd.

  138. Makka

    I’m going to bed.

    We’ll miss you.

  139. JC

    Malturd is such a great campaigner and political strategist, he pissed away near double digit poll lead so he could demonstrate to everyone, as if they had forgotten, what a waffling ninny he is.

    I agree with Turnbuckle’s campaign ideas. They were okay..with the focus on growth as growth combined with a slowdown in the rate of spending would have been one way to cut the deficit. Let’s not forget that he really couldn’t get much through the senate and this became only only decent option.

    The Buckle lost because people bought the model the Liars are selling, which are higher deficits and tax increases. No matter how bad the he campaigned some credence must be given to the Liars campaign pledges. That’s what people want.

  140. Rayvic

    The only time I heard Turnbull mention the reason for the double dissolution was some 6 hours after polls closed.

    Abbott would have torn Bill Short-on-credibility to pieces, if he were still PM. Unlike Turnbull, he would have attacked Bill on his union thuggery.

  141. Can you put your economist hat on and explain the liars party governing model.

    They want to raise six extra taxes and also want to increase the deficit by $150 billion a year for four years.

    Can you explain how this results in higher growth etc and where we will be at the end of 4 years.

    Inequality leads to lower growth, as the rich squirrel away money. Redistribution puts cash back into the economy as the working class don’t save as much. This is the fundamental lesson of the modern age.

    Investing in infrastructure at such low interest rates is an opportunity too good to pass up.

  142. Fisky

    Inequality leads to lower growth, as the rich squirrel away money. Redistribution puts cash back into the economy as the working class don’t save as much.

    That’s true. The rich never reinvest their savings. They just stick it all under mattresses!

  143. Stock buybacks don’t trickle down, Fisky.

  144. Artist Formerly Known As Infidel Tiger

    I hope you are distributing all your profits to the homeless Monty and only taking your fair share at the buffet.

  145. JC

    Inequality leads to lower growth, as the rich squirrel away money.

    Interesting. So savings no longer equals investment as we were taught in 11th grade (not 12th) economics. It now equals “squirreling”.

    Idiot, the only time ‘squirreling’ could even be in contention is if da rich buy safes and then stick all their money in there.

    Redistribution puts cash back into the economy as the working class don’t save as much. This is the fundamental lesson of the modern age.

    Oh I get it, so we’re going back to Hooverarain economics then faithfully followed by FDR. Raise wages /redistribute because it results in higher spending. That little jig lengthened the Great Depression you asshat.

    Investing in infrastructure at such low interest rates is an opportunity too good to pass up.

    Provided you’re seen to be able to repay the money borrowed and you don’t end up like Greece. You realize that our ratings are currently being reviewed for a possible downgrade, right?

  146. Yohan

    Don’t forget muh multiplier Monty.

  147. Fisky

    Stock buybacks don’t trickle down, Fisky.

    What you are actually trying to argue is that savings detract from economic growth whereas spending increases it. China has demonstrated that this is simply wrong. They have saved a massive share of their GDP and they have had very high growth as a result.

  148. JC

    Stock buybacks don’t trickle down, Fisky.

    Trickle down is a leftist term coined by a leftist.

    Stock buybacks actually has the effect of potentially raising incomes if the firm continues to make profits. It’s accretive, you economic illiterate and anything accretive raises income.

  149. JC

    Buybacks are also a fucntion of the tax system whereby it’s more tax effective to return distributable profits to shareholders than regular dividends. Dividends are essentially form of income, you donut eating sloth.

  150. Yohan

    When the rich squirrel away money where does it go? In the bank, and then becomes available to be lent out as investment. Savings are the corollary of investment.

    The rich give up current consumption, this funds business expansion and capital investment.

    But in Piketty land, all that money is just sitting under mattresses, waiting to be redistributed without consequences.

  151. JC

    Monster

    What debt ratio as a percentage of GDP would begin to worry you? We’re at 30% making our way to 50% before the libs said they would begin paying it back.

    Liars are suggesting somewhere around 80% of GDP before repayment begins… LOL. as if.

    Where do you stand?

  152. Fisky

    I think what this election does show is that the right cannot afford to be trapped in abstract arguments about economic growth that Turnbull was trying to sell. The tax cut, even though it would have been good, got no traction at all, and people were frightened by Turnbull’s blathering about the “new economy” because it sounded like he was really calling for their jobs to be taken away and automated. We seriously need to Trumpify our approach to economics and go more nationalist/populist if we are to beat the Left in this day and age.

  153. Yohan

    JC, this is like asking open borders advocates what ‘number’ of migrant is enough. Leftist’s never want to deal with real consequences.

    Asking what % of debt they consider to be enough is not part of their reality.

  154. Fisky

    We need to flip the equality argument into one of nationalism. And then present the Left as being cuckolds who want to give the country away.

  155. JC

    We seriously need to Trumpify our approach to economics and go more nationalist/populist if we are to beat the Left in this day and age.

    Be my guest. You support re-subsidizing the car industry? yea or no.

    I find it amusing that all those people here supporting Trump’s economic policies seem to be only focused on advocating those policies in the US and not here so much. If they did they would be going hammer and tongs with demands to bring back car manufacturing in Australia, because that industry is the elephant in the Kitchen.

    So let me ask, do any of you supporting Trump’s policies also advocate the return of the car industry in Australia?

  156. Fisky

    Be my guest. You support re-subsidizing the car industry? yea or no.

    Nope. Too far gone. But I would definitely be looking to pick a fight with China.

  157. Fisky

    Unfortunately, Australia’s car industry will never have a large enough domestic market let alone foreign demand. And then we have the unions in the way. I can however see a bright future for starting trade wars with China.

  158. JC

    It’s not to far gone at all. All you need to do is hold up those dollars and the car makers will be back faster than lightening.

    Don’t squirm out of it Fisk, as you can also answer hypothetically.

  159. Fisky

    Don’t squirm out of it Fisk, as you can also answer hypothetically.

    I’m not answering hypothetically – I think it would be an enormous waste of money at $10,000 per car or some such. Very, very inefficient.

  160. JC

    Okay. that’s a no.

    So when US firms set up operations cross border like the US carmakers in order to avoid the onerous union demands and regulatory burdens, you support Trump’s policies?
    They shouldn’t be allowed to or face heavy tariffs?

  161. Fisky

    No idea about US carmakers’ practices. Nor do I particularly care. This isn’t an ideological issue. It’s a pragmatic/utilitarian issue. We must reject cuck economics and be prepared to make an example of a trading partner if necessary.

  162. JC

    We must reject cuck economics and be prepared to make an example of a trading partner if necessary.

    You have to fight them on something, so in view of the background do you support threats on the car makers as Trump has done?

  163. Fisky

    I have absolutely no idea what you are referring to regarding Trump and carmakers.

  164. JC

    Trump has said he will impose a huge tariffs on US carmakers for all imports -particualrly on cars produced in Mexico.

    Trump is God.

  165. CR

    Abbott was unelectable pundirs said.
    But he staged the biggest political comeback in history in 2010 and was elected in 2013.
    Abbott was dead meat when he was knifed, a gonner, and here we are with pundits now fearing his return as leader.
    No one who has met Abbott dislikes him. Easy to have overcome the satisfaction levels. Just go on a media PR blitz which lets people see and meet Abbott being himself.

  166. Tel

    https://www.donaldjtrump.com/positions/pay-for-the-wall

    Also include in the proposed rule a requirement that no alien may wire money outside of the United States unless the alien first provides a document establishing his lawful presence in the United States.

    Imagine that… enforcing the existing rule of law using checks and balances rather than overlooking illegal activity.

    I wonder why no one else ever thought of that?

  167. Tel

    Website appears to be blocked…

    www donaldjtrump com / positions / pay-for-the-wall

    Also include in the proposed rule a requirement that no alien may wire money outside of the United States unless the alien first provides a document establishing his lawful presence in the United States.

    Imagine that… enforcing the existing rule of law using checks and balances rather than overlooking illegal activity.

    I wonder why no one else ever thought of that?

  168. Leigh Lowe

    Nikki Savva’s article in the Oz …


    “Six Years in Opposition – Phase 3 of Malcolm’s Brilliant Plan”.

  169. classical_hero

    North Korea and Venezuela are both shining examples of equality. This is the path that mOnty will lead us down if he had the chance. There has been no successful truly socialistic society that has succeeded. The economic illiteracy of the left is stunning. Even Jesus said that the poor will always be with us. Some people make stupid decisions and others just have unfortunate situations but the government can’t help everyone.

  170. classical_hero

    The greatest irony for socialists like mOnty is that capitalism has lifted billions out of absolute poverty and yet socialism has done nothing similar yet it keeps people in poverty since it destroys the will to make money. The biggest problem in the world right now is socialistic subsidies to agriculture both in the US and in the EU. The EU is spending billions on the CAP that is effectively making African countries worse off and thus people want to be better off and Europe is stopping that from happening and then they want to send aid to help them. The stupidity knows no bounds. The EU socialism is destroying countless lives but it won’t change. So much for the caring lefty when their policies cause so much harm.

  171. Cold-Hands

    @Monkey’s Uncle

    How do you explain the canning by-election then? The result was is direct contrast to your theory.

    +1000

    Monkey’s Uncle is studiously ignoring the Canning By-election as it totally rebuts his “Abbot couldn’t win from Government” theory. Even in a by-election, where the incumbent government expects to be sent a message, Hastie won easily.

  172. You are so, so close, Fisky, to realising that the endpoint of your journey lies in the arms of a ranga small business owner. (No, not me.)

    If you read Hanson’s actual policies, you would agree with pretty much all of them. You’re a CEC stooge, in other words. A LaRouchite in a rather obvious disguise.

  173. As for you, JC, trickledown accurately describes your 1980s economic mindset, which has failed miserably in ensuing decades, as Piketty has shown. You haven’t updated your understanding of macro since Flock of Seagulls was in the charts.

  174. .

    m0nty
    #2079467, posted on July 4, 2016 at 10:05 am
    As for you, JC, trickledown accurately describes your 1980s economic mindset, which has failed miserably in ensuing decades, as Piketty has shown. You haven’t updated your understanding of macro since Flock of Seagulls was in the charts.

    Reagan halved inflation and unemployment and wages grew.

    Piketty’s theory is rubbish – he is an uneducated amateur with a willing audience being told what they want to hear.

    Please shut up monty, you have been thoroughly flogged on economics in the last few weeks here.

  175. Tel

    … as Piketty has shown.

    You mean guy who falsified history and filled in data points where it suited him?

    http://www.valuewalk.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/SSRN-id2543012.pdf

  176. Tel

    http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/pikettys-data-dont-match-the-facts/article/2558590

    Despite Piketty’s claims, the book struggled with basic historical facts. For instance, Piketty says President Franklin Roosevelt increased the top income tax rate to 63 percent in 1933 and 79 percent in 1937. Rather, it was President Hoover that signed legislation increasing the top income tax rate to 63 percent in 1932, and Roosevelt increased the rate to 79 percent in 1936.

    Gosh! It’s like he just made it up to suit his narrative. How about that?

  177. .

    Get this right. A correspondent notes:

    Mate, Sowell called him out for bullshit yonks back.

    Also his e-book was a top seller on Amazon. As a footnote, Amazon keeps track of what ebooks are bought and never opened.

    Guess what one scored at the top of that list?

    Correct, eat a dick pikety, ***** may have bought it, but no **** actually read the ****.

    So basically people were buying it as virtue signalling.

  178. A more sober look at that Magness & Murphy hit piece.

    LOL at calling Piketty a fraud based on some weak sniping by wingnut hacks paid by Exxon and Koch Industries.

  179. Monkey's Uncle

    Monkey’s Uncle is studiously ignoring the Canning By-election as it totally rebuts his “Abbot couldn’t win from Government” theory. Even in a by-election, where the incumbent government expects to be sent a message, Hastie won easily.

    It helped that Labor didn’t make any real attempt to win the seat. The Labor strategists believed there was little point given that boundary changes at the next election would turn Canning into a stronger Liberal seat, and they were better off throwing their resources into winning the new seat of Burt.

    That you think the Canning by-election really proves much either way is a testament to your straw clutching and cherry picking.

    I maintain that there is no way a government can be returned with a Prime Minister whose net satisfaction is as far in the red as Abbott’s was (minus 30 plus). Too many people will vote based on their view of the PM. His standing was terminal, around the level of Gillard before she was deposed.

  180. Monkey's Uncle

    Makka keeps accusing me of verballing him because I take his arguments through to their logical conclusions and prove they are horseshit. What a whiny little crybaby you are. Poor diddums, am I hurting your fragile worldview with my forensic analysis of the situation?

    You are a moron if you think you can compare the net performance of two leaders by looking at how much ground one leader gains from the low water mark versus how much one leader loses from the high water mark. It’s called the electoral pendulum and political cycle deadshit. You really believe Abbott would not have lost a lot of seats this election?

    You should fk off back to Malturds camp and comfort your useless leader. He’s going to need all the arse kissers he can muster in the weeks to come.

    For someone who accuses others of verballing, he then repeats his falsehood that I am a Turnbull supporter. As I have made abundantly clear, I am neither a Turnbull nor an Abbott supporter.

  181. Myrrdin,

    If Labor squeaks in, I expect Richo to drag whatever is left of his carcass out to broker whatever deals he can to get Chinese investors in under whatever putative hurdles the Federal ALP might erect to try and sate the ‘wukkas’. Richo will hang in there to wring yet another huge payday out of this, and it won’t take ten years.

    You just know that Australias next submarine won’t be the NBN Class, it will be the Han Class.

  182. Art Vanderlay;

    Shorten may be slightly more competent than Rudd and Gillard but he’s still a clueless union hack.

    My chooks are more competent at what they do than Shorten is at what he does.
    Except for extorting hot pies from little Asian sheilas.

  183. Lizzie;

    Morrison is ahead because of the boats – that is a cut-through issue still and it contains an element of continuity of policy; a much wanted policy.

    Morrison only shone under Abbott because Abbott kept him on track. Under Turnbull, Morrison was becoming a loose cannon, and just a little too cocky.
    I don’t trust him as a PM and wouldn’t elevate him beyond major portfolio position.

  184. Menai Pete;

    After this debacle, will The Nationals and the National Party element of the Qld LNP tolerate Turnbull as PM? I think not. They could, if they wish, withdraw from their coalition agreement and leave Turnbull out in the cold or use that threat to demand that he step down and be replaced by a new leader who can go to the Governor General to be sworn in as PM.

    What would be funny? Turnbull doing a deal with the Greens to stay top cocky. The Greens would do it to drag the Libs Left, then they would own Parliament.
    The possibilities are amusingly endless. All the SJW deals would be backed by the Libs on pain of losing office, and there would be just enough votes from Labor to Venezualise the country.

  185. MV;

    144 Makka.
    That’s how many angels I reckon can dance on the head of a pin.
    Prove me wrong. I give up. I’m going to bed.

    Yuk.
    That’s gross, mate.

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