Guest Post: Philippa Martyr When will Malcolm Turnbull’s time as Prime Minister end?

Since the retirement of Samuel J we never have Catallaxy surveys any more, and I do miss them.

Remember the gay old days when we were allowed to rank our worst governments? And vote on just who did shoot JFK?

As you know, the Perfesser has given me air time to create the Potential Greatness Deadline,™ wherein we mentally gave Malcolm Turnbull the same amount of time Tony Abbott was given to govern Australia to demonstrate any signs of potential Prime Ministerial greatness.

I think we will agree that so far, the results have been underwhelming. But let’s not give up hope just yet.

Some of you have indicated that you don’t think Malcolm Turnbull will even make it as far as the deadline. So what I would like to do is ask Catsters to indicate here how long they think Malcolm Turnbull will remain as Prime Minister of Australia.

Please give us your proposed date on which his time as Prime Minister will end, and your reasons why.

This way, we have a proper record of guesses, and there may be a small prize for the winner. (Or not, as the case may be. Feel free to nominate your preferred prize as well. No death threats).

This entry was posted in Catallaxy Survey, Guest Post. Bookmark the permalink.

139 Responses to Guest Post: Philippa Martyr When will Malcolm Turnbull’s time as Prime Minister end?

  1. karabar

    February 14 2017
    It will be the Valentine’s Day massacre
    His head on a pike.

  2. Bruce of Newcastle

    Please give us your proposed date on which his time as Prime Minister will end, and your reasons why.

    2 November 2019
    Dragged out the door kicking and screaming on the last possible day.

  3. Fisky

    I think he will last well into next year, but the mounting chaos, gridlock, incompetence and bad polls will destroy his desire to remain Prime Minister. He will probably try to go out with a bang on some issue (maybe SSM) when parliament is sitting, to win back the love and respect of the ABC.

    Let’s say December 10, 2017 as the likely departure date.

  4. Helen

    Let me see, the date of the demise of the potentially great one from the position of PM of Australia shall be my Christmas present, so this year, 2016, in December, say the 20th.

    Why? Because even Bill Shitten will have tired of mocking him by then.

  5. Nelson Kidd-Players

    What’s the prize, Philippa? We need to know! I’m thinking along the lines of something that matches Carpe’s chaps, but with a more of a Point-Piper touch.

    I’ll go for the second anniversary of him becomming PM. Assuming it again happens on a Tuesday, that would be the 12th of September 2017.

    I’m hoping for sooner, though.

  6. Nelson Kidd-Players

    I ruled out any date in 2016, as nothing is happening fast with this government.

  7. AnneToo

    Can’t happen soon enough.

  8. Hmmm – what prize would you like, Nelson? You’re free to nominate your own.

    If you really want a pair of chaps, for obscure and probably highly personal reasons, go ahead and ask.

    My preferred prize would be to see Turnbull doing the perp walk after being arrested for a staggeringly long and proven history of insider trading.

    So be sure to dream big.

  9. Econocrat

    I foresee some type of coup where Malcolm the Magnificent is hold up in Point Piper oblivious to having been rolled, then wanders about Sydney (possibly via public transport) in full view of media cameras, enquiring wistfully about the whereabouts of his legions of supporters, before being driven home by Lucy (possibly still oblivious to reality).
    Early February 2017 is my guess. The killing season this year is too close, and they have got to stop him and Morro doing another Budget in May.

  10. Megan

    As BoN has pointed out, the Usurper does not have it in him to take responsibility and quit. The fault always lies with others – those who make him look bad and the rest of us who do not appreciate his gifts.

    In the spirit of Cat co-opetition I’m going to say September 9th 2016, the 40th anniversary of the other Mao getting the permanent boot Even though I know it is highly unlikely.

    That said…any date will be a good date…and not a moment too soon.

  11. john constantine

    Their ozymandius turnmerkel will have himself placed into cryrogenic suspended animation just before the united nations anti-racism human rights squads fly in mounted upon black helicopters, that way he can remain the eternal prime minister and all those coming afterwards being mere satraps.

  12. H B Bear

    Assuming Waffles gets through the summer recess because there is just more of the same for a couple of months before the distraction of Christmas I suspect he’ll get knifed after the winter recess in 2017. The whole period will be mired with complete stasis – effectively what has happened in the last 11 months anyway. Newscorp polling can only get worse and Tits is up and about since Abbott stopped using him as a punching bag.

    I’m not even sure who will do the killing. Madam Defarge is finished after backing Waffles – and possibly ScoMo too. Morristeen has been hung out to dry by Waffles already and I suspect if he does it again he would be happy to be the one to drag him down. Hard to see them going back to Abbott (even if he was interested) and there isn’t another natural candidate ready. Don’t forget that Abbott wasn’t a candidate the last time Waffleworth was pulled down either.

  13. Rabz

    how long they think Malcolm Turnbull will remain as Prime Minister of Australia

    His political career is dead, he just doesn’t know it yet. One thing that I would be willing to put my house on is that he will not be PM leading into the next election.

    In the interim, if the libs lose any by-election that should need to be held at any point within the next 22 months, he’ll be gone the day after.

  14. Habib

    ASAP. Don’t give a shit about the actual date, this incompetent fop disgusts me, and is as embarrasing as RGR internationally.

  15. Rabz

    Just to clarify – any by-election involving a sitting lib/nat MP.

  16. Nelson Kidd-Players

    Already scored the chaps.

    Actually, a good prize would be a framed Leak recording the fateful event. 🙂

  17. a happy little debunker

    Just before or after, next year’s mid winter break.
    Frankly, before the end of this year there just are not enough sitting days – at less than 5 weeks (including this one).
    Some, will still, want to afford Malcolm more time to achieve (nothing).
    His poll numbers have just begun to go black & will need further public disaffection for his core team to turn – that is, the ones he has not already thrown under a bus (like Morrison, like Bishop, like Brough, like Sinodinos, like Roy, Like Colebeck …) must be getting awful lonely bout now.
    Morrison’s 2nd budget (crafted under more do-nothing-ness) – that will miss further opportunity for expediency.
    Finding and positioning a suitable replacement – Tony could do it, but then why would he? Better to throw his lot in with say – Hastie, as a senior advisor in government – funny old world!
    Give an incoming replacement 2 years to settle into the role before an election.
    Labor and the Greens voting against almost all legislation.
    The Senate blocking almost all legislation.

  18. H B Bear

    How about a voucher for complementary NBN connection? Or an @ozemail.com.au email address? What better way to remember his potential Greatness.

  19. Leo G

    Please give us your proposed date on which his time as Prime Minister will end, and your reasons why.

    What? Malcolm Turnbull still PM? Are you sure? What evidence can you cite?

  20. Damienski

    Gee willikers Philippa – nailing one’s colours to the mast this early in the Exalted Reign of His Harbourside Mansion Agility (TM) requires careful thought.

    Until yesterday my sense was that the demise of His Agileness would come from within – a coup with the party. I thought this not because I hold any great hope that there is a successor-in-waiting that could organise the numbers, but because the other mob are so hopeless.

    Then came the parliamentary genius of failure to count the heads before the division bells rang. It looks like our fabulous Prime Minister is more likely to fall due to incompetence than from malicious intent in his own party room.

    Election due by late 2019. We will have a new Prime Minister by 28 February 2018.

  21. Nelson Kidd-Players

    Another prize thought: can you still get a Pollywaffle bar?

  22. boy on a bike

    Anyone good at actuarial tables? What are the odds of a coalition MP dying in office (like Don Randall)? If that happens – game over.

  23. Tim Neilson

    13 September 2017.
    Reasons?
    1. He’ll fight not to get rolled, and there’s no-0ne in the Coalition with the backbone to get rid of him before he, or the electorate, do the job.
    2. But he hates actually being expected to do the job, rather than just hold the position, and he would be happy to quit as long as his ego isn’t deflated in the process.
    3. He’ll hang on till he has served just longer than Abbott, so as to rank ahead of him in the lists, then get out.
    4. Theoretically he could be sunk earlier by a bye-election or two, but if any Coalition member dies (or has to be killed for threatening to resign or cross the floor) there’ll be a “weekend at Bernie’s” style pretence that they’re still functioning as usual (and let’s face it that wouldn’t be far from the truth except that the taxpayer funded expense account wouldn’t be driving the nation further into the red).

  24. Nelson Kidd-Players

    Hay, Boab, what happened to the blogging?

  25. Tim Neilson

    Gab
    #2135884, posted on September 2, 2016 at 2:09 pm
    Sorry Gab, Santa Claus isn’t real.

  26. mem

    I’m going for an April MT departure.This will be precipitated by a mammoth loss in a by-election in Qld or WA in February/March where One Nation will romp it in and the Libs will receive one of the biggest hidings in election history. Turnbull will offer his resignation not expecting it to be accepted.

  27. alexnoaholdmate

    Turnbull COULD go tomorrow. The whole party has lost any confidence in him now.

    But killing Caesar requires a Brutus. Cassius and the others wouldn’t have acted without him there to give a cover of legitimacy to their act.

    Someone to step up and take charge.
    I just can’t see a Brutus in that mob.

  28. Rabz

    What are the odds of a coalition MP dying in office (like Don Randall)?

    Easy solution – you appoint them speaker.

    H/T Some drongo at the ALPBC.

  29. Diogenes

    Hmmm,

    If he chooses the timing of a general election or DD , it will be the first weekend of any NSW school holiday (yes he can be that stupid twice).

    Should there be a by-election (sitting LNP) , then the first party room after they loose the seat.

    If I had my way, he would be already investigating the bottom of the harbour now.

  30. iain russell

    I want him to suffer in office as long as possible. Death (metaphorical, I hasten to add) by a thousand cuts. Creep.

  31. sabena

    Gab and CL are correct.
    Remember December is the killing time in politics.Usually its opposition leaders,but Bob Hawke was deposed in December 91

  32. A Lurker

    The Ides of March 2017.

  33. kevin

    Turnbull will step down in 2029 to write his memoirs. The first 32 volumes will cover his birth.

  34. Econocrat

    Malcolm was a legitimate PM for a whole two days (opening and Wednesday). Now he’s toast.

  35. What are the odds of a coalition MP dying in office (like Don Randall)?

    Easy solution – you appoint them speaker.

    H/T Some drongo at the ALPBC.

    Is this the proposed Weekend at Bernie’s scenario?

    The Speaker, propped up, and rather more somnolent than is usually the case with Speakers?

  36. H B Bear

    I want him to suffer in office as long as possible. Death (metaphorical, I hasten to add) by a thousand cuts. Creep.

    I like your style. Watching a narcissist like Waffles crumbling before your eyes on the 6pm News would be great entertainment. Who didn’t have a laugh when KRuddy started blubbing in the Parliamentary courtyard after getting axed.

  37. Speedbox

    I have no idea although it can’t come soon enough.

    Still, in the spirit of the survey, I will guess the 24th August 2017. For no other reason than 24/08 is the anniversary of the eruption of Vesuvius (79AD); Roman Catholics began their systematic assassination of Protestants in Paris (1572); and, France officially became the world’s fifth nuclear power following the detonation of a nuclear bomb at Mururoa Atoll in 1968.

    Even if Turnbull does go, I still think this country is f*cked. The best that could happen is some curtailment to the social division and economic damage already caused – I have no doubt that future generations will look back and curse “us” for allowing the squandering of our national wealth and crippling the nation’s potential.

  38. Zulu Kilo Two Alpha

    Turnbull will step down in 2029 to write his memoirs. The first 32 volumes will cover his birth.

    An immaculate conception, surely.

  39. Pete of Freo

    Who cares Pip, barring two or three, the whole Coalition line-up are useless time-servers, apparatchiks and dolts, not much worse than the band of crooks and shoonks on the other side, and ALL of them Canberra Centralists.

    On the bright side, for the first time in many years the Senate is a bunch of truly representative scum.

    It’s a much a non-event as the Census.

    I await, with little hope remaining, the announcement of the next plunder.

  40. ACTOldFart

    He will last to the next general election. He will continue on with his foolishness and mediocrity, not achieving much if anything at all, but not making any but the stupid trivial mistakes we are already used to. He certainly won’t make any hard decisions that might get large parts of the political system or the electorate against him.

    The Coalition won’t try to replace him, because they haven’t got anyone. The electorate generally will resign itself to tolerating him as a sort of background national embarrassment, and just wait around to toss him out at the election. Labour will realise that they also just have to wait around, and indeed the longer they wait the bigger their electoral win will be.

    It is Billy McMahon all over again.

  41. Harald

    Shorten to go first in 10 months (May 2017).
    Then either Albo or Plibs will finish Turnbull off in 4 months (October 2017).

    Why:
    Turnbull’s weakness is that he’s not a Liberal, cannot unite the Libs and on the content of issues only speaks for about 20%-30% of the base and the party room. His “strength” is that Abbott is the only one ready to replace him.

    To get rid of Turnbull the polls have to be bad and getting worse very rapidly. Only under those conditions will they bring back Abbott: panic.

    To bring about panic and the slide in the polls, Turnbull must be goaded into going left. He must be lured into showing his worst lefty judgment on social and fiscal issues. Shorten cannot bring that about, simply lacks the credibility.

    For example, Plibs and Ablo would be far more able to lead Turnbull to the left. They can credibly come over the top like an ogre on social and/or fiscal issues, causing Turnbull to follow and expose himself as they try to out-left and out-green each other.

    But for that to happen, Shorten has to go first. And that won’t happen until after the next budget.

  42. I reckon that it will be before Potential Greatness Day,™ and I think it will be by party room backstabbing. I just don’t know by whom.

    But I bet it will lead to Lord Waffle retiring from politics and forcing a by-election, which will then cause Wentworth to fall to the Greens, creating a hung parliament.

    He would love that.

  43. I await, with little hope remaining, the announcement of the next plunder.

    I know. But it passes the time. Plus also I like to capture the baseline data, in the interests of science, just to see if anyone here gets it right.

  44. Matt

    There’s not a really logical successor at the moment, and it would be madness to make a move before Christmas anyway (not that madness has ever stopped anyone before).

    5 May 2017, for no good reason.

  45. Bill Clark's nephew

    Waffles will hang on by his last remaining fingernail until he can say he was PM for longer than Tony Abbott. A man of such monstrous ego and hubris could not stand going down in history as the bloke who couldn’t even stay in the job as long as the PM he knifed. That puts his departure at sometime shortly after September 10, 2017.

  46. Zulu Kilo Two Alpha

    But I bet it will lead to Lord Waffle retiring from politics and forcing a by-election, which will then cause Wentworth to fall to the Greens, creating a hung parliament.

    I’ll bet a bottle of single malt that the next step in Lord Waffle’s career path is President of the Australian Republic.

  47. Beachside

    alexnoaholdmate

    #2135907, posted on September 2, 2016 at 2:20 pm

    Turnbull COULD go tomorrow. The whole party has lost any confidence in him now.

    But killing Caesar requires a Brutus. Cassius and the others wouldn’t have acted without him there to give a cover of legitimacy to their act.

    Someone to step up and take charge.
    I just can’t see a Brutus in that mob.

    Andrew Hastie, Member for Canning

  48. Mique

    I think he’ll hang around by his fingernails until he’s defeated at the next scheduled election or until he loses a by election to fill a casual vacancy and loses his current slender majority. I doubt there is anyone left in the parliamentary Liberal Party with the gumption or guts to organise a coup. He’ll then scuttle away like a cockroach. I’ll nominate the last possible election date as the deadline.

    For my prize, I would like to see Niki Savva making a grovelling apology to Tony Abbott and Peta Credlin before being sacked by News Limited for her gross lack of professionalism.

  49. smitthy

    DEFINITELY… December 25th 2016…quietly, behind his back (snigger), whilst attending Midnite Mass!

  50. Motelier

    Philippa,

    One thing you are forgetting in all of this. There are no Liberal members left.

    The Liberal Party is dead. Don’t blame me, I didn’t do it.

    The problem is that everyone looking in has not realised that the Liberal Party is dead and the things occupying the treasury benches are zombies.

    We should just have a formal remembrance service for the Liberal Party and crack open some pints of champagne.

    Thinking that the Liberals will be a force once more is delusional. They are dead.

  51. Bela Bartok

    ACTOldFart
    #2135961, posted on September 2, 2016 at 2:49 pm
    He will last to the next general election.

    I think he won’t want to contest a real election, he hasn’t got the ticker, so he will pull the pin with 6-7 months before the drop dead date of the election, so I am guessing early 2019. He’s already showing signs of aging, and he’s playing against a mirror – there’s no difference in party policies. So he will continue to be the SJW hero for all time, get more stressed, and – once he’s got high level exposure for himself and his business cronies, he’ll pull the pin.

    He won’t get knifed, because 3/4 of the Lieberals love him. He will be encouraged in his fatuousness by the media, as he will have; passed SSM by vote, established an Aboriginal treaty with billions in compensation, put a referendum for the Republic in late 2017/early 2018, given more to the ALPBC, dudded the ABCCC, boosted the HRC by insisting 18C stays and catch MORE hateful white men, and establish a Royal Commission into the Banks because ‘da rich’ and he’s insulated, and somewhere along hte line Lucy has to get a prime job as some top draw diplomat, or UN representative.
    It has to pave the way for Maolcolm to prance on the world stage his greatness, having conquered the little people.

  52. Marcus

    August 18 2018.

    I understand that’s the earliest he can go to a half-Senate election under the Constitution (at least, if I’m remembering Antony Green’s blog correctly). This next term looks like being so shambolic that it makes sense that he’d want to get it done as soon as he can and hope to squeak out a victory. Of course, by then the rest of the country will be as sick of him as conservatives are, so if we can’t enjoy the prospect of his getting knifed we can at least look forward to his concession speech, which he’ll have to deliver in the knowledge that his name will be dirt for as long as he lives.

  53. Indolent

    ASAP, preferably.

    The Coveted Invitation (as per Andrew Bolt’s new and improved(?) site) might do it if he follows his own inclination or allows himself to be bedazzled by Obama (redundant I know).

  54. Nelson Kidd-Players

    …he’d want to get it done as soon as he can and hope to squeak out a victory.

    He just did that, Marcus.

    This significance of the August 18 2018 date would be that it’s the earliest an election can be held without decoupling the Senate election date from the House election date. Separate dates historically mean the senate vote is used to ‘send a message’ to the government of the day.

  55. Baldrick

    August 2017, after a second failed budget.

  56. H B Bear

    Blot’s new website sucks – now that’s a surprise. Let’s hope Snic’s tribe of IT nerds do a better job here.

  57. JohnA

    I predict Sept 2017, just before or just after the date that would have him hold office longer that Mr Abbott.

    Which of those two options will depend on whether the conservative rump can muster the numbers to run him through before he has “another win at Tony’s expense”.

  58. H B Bear

    Oops wrong thread. Sorree.

  59. JohnA

    Oops – method:

    Suffocation on his own narcissistic arrogance.

  60. Chris

    My opinion:

    The trouble with Australian politics is that hung Parliaments do not involve nearly enough lamp-posts.

    A waffler and a ditherer who makes nothing happen may however be less worse then RGR.

  61. Slayer of Memes

    Interesting that, just like the last time Philippa offered a similar thread, both Sinc and aussiepundit are silent…

    ..not to mention David Leyonhjelm, who also promised to keep Malcontent’s toes to the fire

  62. incoherent rambler

    how long they think Malcolm Turnbull will remain as Prime Minister of Australia

    Philippa – In the interests of accuracy (within a month or so), is our estimate to include the resignation speech?

  63. Bruce in WA

    21 March 2017 … because it’s just days after the Ides of March … and it’s my birthday, so thank you for a wunnerful pressie in advance.

  64. Rabz

    Is this the proposed Weekend at Bernie’s scenario?

    The Speaker, propped up, and rather more somnolent than is usually the case with Speakers?

    Doc, it was actually suggested last year by an ALPBC “expert political contributor” (long after the aforementioned MP had popped his clogs).

  65. thefrolickingmole

    In 2 years time he will have ticked off the final items on Phillpas “greatness list” and be elected God Emperor of Australia for life and along with UN Generalissimo Kevini Rudd will usher in the Age of heros as mankind, agile and innovative launch to conquer the galaxy…

    /snot…sorry, been playing warhammer and snorting bath salts, my judgement may be out..

  66. Squirrel

    November 6, 2017 – next year’s anniversary of the republic referendum (the same day this year is too soon).

  67. Robber Baron

    Put me down for the anniversary of his birthday 24 October 1954. But I really like the anniversary of the Mutiny on the Bounty 28 April 1789. Some real irony and symbolic “casting adrift” there.

  68. Zulu Kilo Two Alpha

    But I really like the anniversary of the Mutiny on the Bounty 28 April 1789. Some real irony and symbolic “casting adrift” there.

    William Bligh achieved one of the greatest feats of seamanship ever, in an open boat after that “casting adrift.” Lord Waffle would probably have got them all wrecked on the shores of the Antarctic…..

  69. I Am the Walras, Equilibrate and Price Take

    Baldrick
    #2136068, posted on September 2, 2016 at 4:07 pm
    August 2017, after a second failed budget.

    Don’t know about the exact date, but I’m expecting they another failed budget – four in a row from this mob of wastrels – will be more than he, Morriswan and the Black Widow can survive.

  70. I Am the Walras, Equilibrate and Price Take

    Zulu Kilo Two Alpha
    #2136172, posted on September 2, 2016 at 5:58 pm
    Lord Waffle would probably have got them all wrecked on the shores of the Antarctic

    LOL Zulu.

  71. Craig

    09th November 2017

    The economy is now in recession and he is still dicking around on ‘innovative’ ideas.

  72. Pedro the Ignorant

    I predict His Agileness will retire “to spend more time with his family” on Saturday 30th September 2017.

    Same day as the AFL Grand Final, so he can claim that the drunken and celebratory state of 2/3 of the nation has nothing to do with him pulling the plug, it is just the bogans cheering on their footy team.

    Prize to be a framed portrait of Andrew Bolt.

  73. John of Bicheno

    He will be gone in twice half the time He remains,garantee it

  74. Old School Conservative

    8th December this year, 2016.
    1 week after the last sitting day of the year; a good time to met and plot while most kids are still at school and MPs don’t have much to do.

    I like the prize of a signed, framed Leak cartoon. Signed by either Hastie, Abbott or Bernadi.

  75. Andrew

    They can’t roll him – he would retire and Wentworth would fall to the Greens as 1 million GetUp voters changed their enrolment to a guesthouse in Woollahra.

    Since they’re stuck with the grub, his polls will deteriorate towards 15% (his core support being established last time). He will not recontest. So his successor will be handed the poison chalice 2 months before the election due first Sat in July 2019. She will make a couple of Ruddesque announcements and then call an election because Uterus.

  76. H B Bear

    Andrew – you seem to forget that it is only the ALP who make the point of handing the torch to a token woman to go down in flames long after the point at which anything is salvageable from the economic or political wreck all Labor governments eventually become. see Carmen Lawrence, Mother Russia, Bambi, Anna Blies (although she sent the government to the wall in a rare exception).

    If you think that Madame Defarge will be able to put her cockroach-like political survival skills to use once again, I’m afraid you are very much mistaken. She is going down with the Waffleburg this time. Morristeen is only 50:50 to escape the flaming wreck too.

  77. Dozer

    He will leave when gravity takes over an forces em’ down, or Lucy loosens them with some sort of self taught other worldly fire & brimstone.

  78. AP

    For my prize, I would like to see Niki Savva making a grovelling apology to Tony Abbott and Peta Credlin before being sacked by News Limited for her gross lack of professionalism.

    Great prize.

    Andrew – you seem to forget that it is only the ALP who make the point of handing the torch to a token woman to go down in flames long after the point at which anything is salvageable from the economic or political wreck all Labor governments eventually become

    Well Turnbull did ask for Labor preselection on allegedly at least 6 occasions….

  79. Zulu Kilo Two Alpha

    Andrew – you seem to forget that it is only the ALP who make the point of handing the torch to a token woman to go down in flames long after the point at which anything is salvageable from the economic or political wreck all Labor governments eventually become. see Carmen Lawrence,

    Carmen Lawrence’s own brother, Bevan, founded the main protest movement against her Government – “People For Fair and Open Government” (I marched in several demonstrations they organized.) Family gatherings in the Lawrence family household must have been interesting….

  80. Andrew

    I didn’t say the Loyal Deputy will be anointed. Although she might be the running mate. Anyone with a uterus might be chucked at the job.

    If you’re a woman, do you vote for a random like O Dwyer, of the man who allegedly forced himself on a 15yo in a bathroom?

  81. Faye

    Wednesday, 14 September 2016, 12 days hence – the anniversary of his knifing Abbott. Too much to ask, I know.
    OR
    If a Conservative Party is up and running with the likes of Abbott, Dutton, Hastie, Bernardi and the other Conservatives changing ship, then I suppose I can wait till the next Federal election.
    BUT
    Turnbull is so accident prone, he is liable to cause his own political demise at any time.

  82. Mick Gold Coast QLD

    September 2017, a year from now. The dill simply cannot survive indefinitely doing nothing, even as the leader of nobodies.

    The Spiv will smirk and coo and waffle through to Christmas, unnoticed by the average voter who doesn’t think much of him, but the polls will catch up about then revealing, one would expect, nothing good. He will respond by doing what he is good at – nothing.

    As the polls worsen the former Liberal Party bed wetters will start wimpering to each other about how tenuous and unfair it all is in the post Liberal Party era, and they will gradually work themselves into a state of uncontrollable fear ramping up to the budget in May. That, of course, will offer a few splendid cock ups in the figures to rejuvenate Shortun, Blubbersack and that ABC 7:30 Report sheila and they will spend weeks mocking the government before the TV cameras and rattling up an impressive score. The back bench bed wetters, all alone in their electorate offices for the cold winter recess, will watch the flogging and become increasingly miserable.

    I expect Tony Abbott will be doing something useful during that time, such as volunteering for Kosciuszko ski patrols, smiling as he works with ordinary Australians.

    After 16 or 17 weeks of the vacuum, and its attendant trauma, they will return to Canberra on September 1-ish, re-unite with their li’l school besties and make a bold move in the Party room on The Little Fellow with Great Potential, shaking in their widdle boots as they do and avoiding eye contact with School Bully. Despite their best efforts to bugger it all up he’ll be gone, as will the Hon Julie Jiang Qing and Junior Morrison. Prissy Chrissy Pyne will instantly offer his allegiance and dedicated pre-election support, post election.

    The bed wetters will be quite startled at their success and will then turn their attention to finding out a little bit about whoever it was that they put up as the alternative leader of the Turnbull Coalition Team Party.

    Labor need not do anything much to hold its position. Its future is finely balanced however, against how passionately it spruiks for bundle of sticks marriage, its position on thieving super and on anything else which creates cumulative distaste, uncertainty and doubt for older voters.

    Stumbull is on a hiding to nothing on the bundle of sticks’ referendum. (Why, after 40 odd referendums, this one attracts the fancy title of “plebiscite” is beyond me.) He’ll be too timid to go hard enough for the vacuous doctors’ wives and so indecisive in what little leadership he offers to those who expect it that he will end up being remembered as just another enabler for the kiddie fibblers’ legitimate call for State assisted fresh young meat.

  83. T Bull

    Until a greater challenge arrives that necessitates his magnificent skills. Like a memoir , an ABC host role or Emporer.

  84. GerardB

    Unfortunately Malcolm will go full term because the Liberal lemmings behind him are in a state of suspended animation and are extremely busy doing nothing, after lunch of course.
    They will follow him over the political precipice because the mongrel Liberal warrior Malcolm replaced is reluctant to support a bunch of prissy-bummed time servers who can’t even control parliament with a 1 vote majority.

  85. Dr Faustus

    The conservatives in the Liberal Party are now in more, or less open revolt against the Turnbull Party and the media smells blood in the water – viz regular Abbott and Bernardi backgrounding.

    There are only a few weeks of sitting time left in 2016. Turnbull will wallow along trying to get his amazing technicolour 25 point omnibus legislation up and running in a parliament that holds him in open contempt. For the Coalition backbench, a minority government supported by Katter will come to seem preferable to a minority government + 1 led by Captain Failure.

    A plot will coalesce over the Christmas break – and be executed once Senators and Reps regather in Canberra for the Autumn session in early February (6 or 7 February?).

    Turnbull will either be rolled, or a Conservative Party will formally split from the Liberal Party shortly afterwards. A new election will be held in April, ushering in nine years of a Shorten Green/Labor Government that will transform Australia into a failed version of Greece.

  86. Barry

    Unfortunately he will stay until the next election – not one in the Libs has the fortitude to bite the bullet and replace him. We will just go from one drama to the next through the next couple of years. God help Australia

  87. Kool Aid Kid

    Who’d replace him? Not Morrison. Not Bishop. Certainly not Abbott. I suppose Shorten is a possibility if the coalition continues to behave like a weekend conference of student politicians.

  88. Ian of Brisbane

    Budget time next year. Someone will glue a mirror to the bottom of his bath, and he will drown.

  89. mizaris

    Hopefully 18 Feb 2017…I want that prize Philippa!!!

  90. wreckage

    Fasustus: a good prediction, but I reject the 9 year ALP reign. They’ll try to shut down border protection… again… and get thrown out… AGAIN.

  91. wreckage

    My bet: the second they lose a seat for any reason, he’s gone. If he’s still there at the election, he will lose, or possibly cobble together a fucking monstrous abomination of a minority government, and be rolled shortly after.

  92. Muddy

    On April the 22nd, 2017, Turnbull will give the ALPBC the responsibility of running the Federal immigration, trade, foreign policy, education, defence and health portfolios, and quietly, without fanfare, retire to live his life in an old caravan out the back of Nimbin.

  93. Combine Dave

    Any sign of greatness yet?

    I suspect he’ll retire for medical reasons at the next federal election.

    He’ll hold on that long as there’s none in the Liberals capable of challenging him.

  94. Pete m

    1 December 2017

    Prize – Leak cartoon signed

  95. Nelson Kidd-Players

    What if no one gets the day? Is it nearest the pin? Over or under excluded? Does the prize jackpot to the next leader?

  96. That’s a good question, Nelson (I can see the prize idea has really taken hold here …)

    Here is the list so far:

    9-Sep-16 Megan
    14-Sep-16 Faye
    8-Dec-16 Old School Conservative
    20-Dec-16 Helen
    24-Dec-16 Gab
    25-Dec-16 Smitthy
    1-Feb-17 Econocrat
    6-Feb-17 Dr Faustus
    14-Feb-17 karabar
    18-Feb-17 mizaris
    15-Mar-17 A Lurker
    21-Mar-17 Bruce in WA
    1-Apr-17 mem
    22-Apr-17 Muddy
    5-May-17 Matt
    1-Jul-17 goatjam
    1-Aug-17 Baldrick
    1-Sep-17 JohnA
    1-Sep-17 Mick Gold Coast QLD
    10-Sep-17 Bill Clark’s Nephew
    12-Sep-17 Nelson Kidd Players
    13-Sep-17 Tim Neilson
    30-Sep-17 Pedro the Ignorant
    1-Oct-17 Harald
    24-Oct-17 Robber Baron
    6-Nov-17 Squirrel
    9-Nov-17 Craig
    1-Dec-17 pete m
    10-Dec-17 Fisky
    28-Feb-18 Damienski
    18-Aug-18 Marcus
    23-Jun-19 Andrew
    2-Nov-19 Bruce of Newcastle

    Most of the guesses fall around April 2017 or September 2017. Where a person has simply given me a month, I’ve assigned them the first of the month.

  97. Tom

    Philippa, if I may, I nominate Monday, March 13, 2017, as the day, being the resumption of parliament after a week’s break in the first sitting next year, the backbench rabbits blink at the driving lights of the approaching freight train and insist the Coodabeen Greatest PM, having achieved his ambition of destroying the Lieboral Pardy, continue his pointless existence elsewhere.

  98. calli

    March 1, St David’s Day, thanks Philippa.

    Ta.

  99. Mark from Melbourne

    Could I lock in 18th May 2017 as the Day of Potential Non-greatness please?

  100. Rossini

    1st August 2017 is my Guestimate if not already taken. Thank you.

  101. Rossini

    Oops didn’t read the list sorry Baldrick ..hope you are on a winner!

  102. Motelier

    I have given the corpse of the Liberal Party some observation.

    The fact that Lord Turnbull of Point Piper seems to have lost control and some votes on the floor of the house I really need to start purchasing shares in confectionary companies that specialise in popcorn.

    Soooooo, how will Lord Turnbull of Point Piper leave us?

    IMHO opinion ScoMo will try to deliver a budget that is micromanaged by Lord Turnbull. This will lead to the budget being panned and laughed at from all quarters.

    Wednesday, 31 st day of August 2017 will be the day that the true conservatives, the ones that have been trying to perform CPR on the corpse of the Liberal Party, decide to leave the Liberal Party en masse.

    This leaves Lord Turnbull of Point Piper with a minority, that the ALP (I am having trouble if it is being lead by Boobs McShorten or Albosleazy) strikes hard and fast and goes to the Governor General requesting that the be installed as a caretaker government until a DD election to be held in November 2017.

    The loss of the conservatives in the Liberal party to other parties causes huge ructions at pre-selection prior to the election.

    oppssss sorry I was dreamin’.

    But still. The budget will be a usless piece of legislation that does nothing for anyone and proves impossible to sell to the electorate. The Liberals sensing this knife another leader on the second day back after the budget. That second day back is 31st of August 2017

  103. Leigh Lowe

    Would it be crude amd tasteless to select November 22 (the anniversary of JFK buying the farm).

  104. hzhousewife

    Like Tom, I felt that the ides of March would be perfect, but I want so badly for it to be this year instead, I’ll take the 13th of November.

  105. Graham

    I would like to put in a bid for 3 April 2017. Can’t justify my selection by any objective measure, but if it turns out to be right I will be delighted.

  106. stackja

    A few past PMs:

    When Fisher, his health undermined by the stress of war and growing party division, resigned as prime minister in October 1915 Hughes was unanimously chosen to succeed him.

    On 7 April Lyons died unexpectedly, and two weeks later Menzies became prime minister.

  107. candy

    It’s nonsense to think the Liberal Party would get rid of another PM.

    They are lock, stock and barrel behind Malcolm Turnbull. They have to be. Every effort will be towards keeping those polls at 50/50 into the foreseeable future.

    I see no place for Tony Abbott in that party, though, and that’s the saddest thing. In essence, its Cory Bernardi who holds the cards and why would he give up the brilliant senator’s salary for an unknown.

    So I see no change.

  108. Cold-Hands

    I’d like it to be in the New Year, say, February 4th, 2017, but it’s quite likely that the stolid inertia of his Government and its inability to get anything done may delay the departure for a further six months. Either way, it cannot happen soon enough.

  109. Nelson Kidd-Players

    Leigh Lowe #2138675, posted on September 5, 2016 at 6:36 pm

    Would it be crude and tasteless to select November 22 (the anniversary of JFK buying the farm).

    After listening to Mario from Doncaster, I’m just wondering about the visuals.

  110. custard

    Philippa,

    May I add 5 Sep 2017 as my estimation to the end of potential greatness please.

    I put this up on the open thread by mistake!

  111. Added.

    I think I will close this competition tomorrow because I can’t keep up with it otherwise, and I would hate for anyone to miss out.

  112. Anthony

    1 November 2016.
    He will even attempt to stuff up the Melbourne Cup.

  113. Competition closing at 9am EST tomorrow! (7am Perth time).

  114. P

    Philippa I would be pleased if you would be kind enough to place my choice as 3rd Feb 2017.

  115. Fisky

    Phillipa – 10 June 2017. I think they’ll give him the budget and then knife him.

  116. JC

    How does GST work for imported goods? Does the government make a claim for the GST on the receiver or is the shipper expected to pick it up on the government’s behalf?

    I reckon FedEx is trying to rake in money. Just a hunch.

  117. There has never been a more exciting time to lodge your guess.

  118. Motelier

    Philippa,

    If I may. I just realised I was using the sitting calender for 2016 for my prediction of 31st Aug, 2017.

    As the sitting calender for 2017 has not been released I am now going for the killing season towards the end of June 2017.

    It will be a Wednesday.

    Wednesday the 21st of June, 2017. I also predict that this will happen in prime time television and will rate higher than Masterchef.

    LOL

    Yep. Change me to 21/06/2017.

    Thanks.

  119. Grigory M

    Philippa – may I please nominate 28 November 2016 as the date for the Usurper’s denouement?

  120. Grigory M

    It’s nonsense to think the Liberal Party would get rid of another PM.

    They are lock, stock and barrel behind Malcolm Turnbull.

    Alas, candy – I feel that your usual perspicacity is not evident in this instance.

  121. Philippa – 18 May 2017 please – 5 family birthdays that day as well !

  122. GoTiges

    Hi Philippa,

    Can I nominate 9 March 2017 please? Around about the time the budget meetings are happening. Lots of pressure – could blow the whole thing sky high!

  123. Tailgunner

    How does GST work for imported goods?

    LOL!

  124. Red Ruby

    Could I have 11/11/16 please. Who could ask for a better birthday present than absolute chaos in Federal Parliament

  125. candy

    Alas, candy – I feel that your usual perspicacity is not evident in this instance.

    Hello Grigory, I see your prediction is November 2016. 3 months only away. What astounding thing would lead to that if I may ask? what exactly would precipitate it, thanks, I am always interested in your opinion.

  126. Tom Atkinson

    I will go for February 28th, 2017.

    Lots here are going for September of next year. I am truly astonished that anybody thinks he can last that long. That is one year! A week can be a long time in politics, but a year…

    I am basing my guess on the trajectory of the opinion polls. Back in 2009, we saw his popularity decline at a certain rate. That same decline and rate became evident in the polling of late last year and early this year.

    That trajectory indicated he would be gone by about July of this year. This was the real reason he called the election for July this year. He figured he could stumble over the line, then show his true greatness and turn things around.

    But the polls don’t seem to be behaving as he expected, however. In fact, the election and his vast periods of absence have interrupted, slightly, the regular decline, but it will return, which will bring his polling to terminal levels in about October-November of this year.

    I’m assuming he can limp on into next year.

  127. The final list is:

    9-Sep-16 Megan
    14-Sep-16 Faye
    30-Sep-16 incoherent rambler
    17-Oct-16 Mike of Marion
    21-Oct-16 classical_hero
    1-Nov-16 wivenhoe
    1-Nov-16 Anthony
    11-Nov-16 Red Ruby
    13-Nov-16 hzhousewife
    22-Nov-16 Hydra
    28-Nov-16 Grigory M
    30-Nov-16 Jo Smyth
    30-Nov-16 Menai Pete
    2-Dec-16 cheryl
    5-Dec-16 Top Ender
    7-Dec-16 Jimmy the Boy
    8-Dec-16 Old School Conservative
    19-Dec-16 Indolent
    20-Dec-16 Helen
    24-Dec-16 Gab
    25-Dec-16 Smitthy
    31-Dec-16 Armadillo
    13-Jan-17 Carpe Jugulum
    26-Jan-17 Notafan
    1-Feb-17 Econocrat
    3-Feb-17 P
    4-Feb-17 Cold-Hands
    6-Feb-17 Dr Faustus
    9-Feb-17 Lysander
    14-Feb-17 karabar
    15-Feb-17 Splatacrobat
    16-Feb-17 Des Deskperson
    18-Feb-17 mizaris
    1-Mar-17 calli
    3-Mar-17 Barking Toad
    9-Mar-17 GoTiges
    13-Mar-17 Tom
    15-Mar-17 A Lurker
    15-Mar-17 Ruthm
    15-Mar-17 Ubique
    15-Mar-17 Tintarella di Luna
    21-Mar-17 Bruce in WA
    1-Apr-17 mem
    1-Apr-17 Tailgunner
    3-Apr-17 Graham
    22-Apr-17 Muddy
    5-May-17 Matt
    18-May-17 Mark from Melbourne
    28-May-17 Bruce K
    10-Jun-17 Fisky
    14-Jun-17 The Beer Whisperer
    21-Jun-17 Motelier
    26-Jun-17 Winston Smith
    4-Jul-17 old bloke
    11-Jul-17 goatjam
    1-Aug-17 Baldrick
    1-Aug-17 Rossini
    10-Aug-17 Sydney Boy
    15-Aug-17 Zulu Kilo Two Alpha
    1-Sep-17 JohnA
    1-Sep-17 Mick Gold Coast QLD
    5-Sep-17 custard
    10-Sep-17 Bill Clark’s Nephew
    12-Sep-17 Nelson Kidd Players
    13-Sep-17 Tim Neilson
    30-Sep-17 Pedro the Ignorant
    1-Oct-17 Harald
    21-Oct-17 Leigh Lowe
    24-Oct-17 Robber Baron
    6-Nov-17 Squirrel
    9-Nov-17 Craig
    1-Dec-17 pete m
    4-Dec-17 stackja
    7-Dec-17 bystander
    14-Dec-17 John64
    28-Feb-18 Damienski
    6-Jun-18 Zippy the Younger
    18-Aug-18 Marcus
    18-May-19 Slayer of Memes
    23-Jun-19 Andrew
    1-Nov-19 thefrolickingmole
    2-Nov-19 Bruce of Newcastle

    Now we wait!

  128. Stats:

    The months selected as the most likely for a coup are:

    November-December 2016
    February-March 2017
    September 2017

    Many of you provided good reasons for your guesses, but there was a late and lamentably unscientific flurry of people choosing their birthdays, which probably queers the pitch.

    Now we wait! Thank you all for playing.

  129. Nelson Kidd-Players

    How come all the old threads are open again? is this the zombie Cat?

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