Trumpwatch Trade

The Trump proposals.

Negotiate fair trade deals that create American jobs, increase American wages, and reduce America’s trade deficit.
Donald J. Trump’s 7 Point Plan To Rebuild the American Economy by Fighting for Free Trade

1. Withdraw from the Trans-Pacific Partnership, which has not yet been ratified.

2. Appoint tough and smart trade negotiators to fight on behalf of American workers.

3. Direct the Secretary of Commerce to identify every violation of trade agreements a foreign country is currently using to harm our workers, and also direct all appropriate agencies to use every tool under American and international law to end these abuses.

4. Tell NAFTA partners that we intend to immediately renegotiate the terms of that agreement to get a better deal for our workers. If they don’t agree to a renegotiation, we will submit notice that the U.S. intends to withdraw from the deal. Eliminate Mexico’s one-side backdoor tariff through the VAT and end sweatshops in Mexico that undercut U.S. workers.

5. Instruct the Treasury Secretary to label China a currency manipulator.

6. Instruct the U.S. Trade Representative to bring trade cases against China, both in this country and at the WTO. China’s unfair subsidy behavior is prohibited by the terms of its entrance to the WTO.

7. Use every lawful presidential power to remedy trade disputes if China does not stop its illegal activities, including its theft of American trade secrets – including the application of tariffs consistent with Section 201 and 301 of the Trade Act of 1974 and Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962.

Full list of policies.

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48 Responses to Trumpwatch Trade

  1. Tel

    But wait, I heard that Trump wanted total autarky.

    Surely none of those commentators would have said that without bothering to even read Trump’s policies?

  2. Ellen of Tasmania

    5. Instruct the Treasury Secretary to label China a currency manipulator.

    And they are all alone in such a practice?

    I thought one of the reasons governments were so enamoured with fiat currencies was because they could manipulate them to (almost) their heart’s content.

  3. Robbo

    Those Australians who are happily celebrating Trump’s victory need to understand that his promises on international trade will, if implemented, damage Australia. The outcome would be job losses and major budgetary issues. If Clinton had won the outcome for Australia would have been a lot better.

  4. Mark A

    Robbo

    Those Australians who are happily celebrating Trump’s victory need to understand that his promises on international trade will, if implemented, damage Australia. The outcome would be job losses and major budgetary issues. If Clinton had won the outcome for Australia would have been a lot better.

    Really how?
    And really how much worse can we get because of a Trump presidency?
    Care to enlighten?

  5. Use every lawful presidential power to remedy trade disputes if China does not stop its illegal activities, including its theft of American trade secrets – including the application of tariffs consistent with Section 201 and 301 of the Trade Act of 1974 and Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962.

    China should pay compensation to the millions of companies and government entities it has ripped off. This would be in the trillions.

  6. Mark A

    Zippy The Triumphant
    China should pay compensation to the millions of companies and government entities it has ripped off. This would be in the trillions.

    “You are dreaming? yes?

  7. wretch

    If Clinton had won the outcome for Australia would have been a lot better.

    Robbo check out the front page of today’s Oz re $10b boost to the budget from iron ore prices. Can’t wait either for his climate and energy policies to kick in and it will become obvious even to the odious numb-nuts in the federal LNP that we’ll have to do something similar.

  8. .

    Eliminate Mexico’s one-side backdoor tariff through the VAT and end sweatshops in Mexico that undercut U.S. workers.

    So he wants Mexico to have a less efficient tax system and to put their own workers out of a job with a minimum wage.

    Trade is his worst policy area. I’m not even sure how this is a “trade” policy.

  9. Dr Fred Lenin

    Notice the concern for US Workers ? Shprten read this. This is what workers political parties and trade unions are supposed to do read and learn . The US trade balance with AustrAlia ? It is in Americas favour acording to Landline on Sunday so we have nothing to fear / This anti Trumpisn is becomming Psychotic ,he is worse than Hitler and he hasnt done anything yet .No mention of Stalin Mao Pol pot etc .etc. of course .

  10. thefrolickingmole

    Trup has got in promising to restore jobs.
    Shock horror he may do just that.

  11. sabena

    Note one thing in this list-it does not mention imposing tariffs.
    All of the items are negotiable and relate to renegotiation of existing agreements.
    That’s a long way short of a protectionist agenda.

  12. JohnA

    Ellen of Tasmania #2206855, posted on November 14, 2016, at 8:13 am

    5. Instruct the Treasury Secretary to label China a currency manipulator.

    And they are all alone in such a practice?

    I thought one of the reasons governments were so enamoured with fiat currencies was because they could manipulate them to (almost) their heart’s content.

    It probably means China has been caught doing it…

  13. Oh come on

    I don’t know about currency manipulation but what is beyond question is that Chinese firms are a serial thieves of foreign IP; that is undoubtedly true. The Chinese government’s reaction to this has long been ‘hrrrrmmmmph ummm not our fault! Developing country…we errrrrr can’t control everything y’know…developing country…1.3 billion people…aaaah…yeah that pretty much sums it up. Did we mention we are a developing country?’

    And the rest of the world has accepted this and generally tolerates China’s egregious IP theft, mollified by some assurance that at some future point the Chinese government will put in place the apparatus capable of effectively cracking down on Chinese companies stealing the IP of others.

    Weird that the Chinese government is able to effectively regulate and minimise criticism of it by its 1.3 billion subjects, yet is unable to enforce its own IP laws, the latter task requiring a great deal less oversight and effort than the former.

    Fact is that if the Chinese government really wanted to stamp out IP theft, it could do so. A Trump administration has a very good chance of focusing the minds of Beijing’s mandarins to this end wonderfully.

  14. Roger

    Those Australians who are happily celebrating Trump’s victory need to understand that his promises on international trade will, if implemented, damage Australia.

    If China goes into recession as a result, yes, although a Chinese recession is highly likely in any case.

    But there are likely to be credit entries on the trade balance sheet, too, not least from energy exports.

    If Clinton had won the outcome for Australia would have been a lot better.

    Hillary vowed to kill off US participation in the TPP too; the tide of economic resentment in the US will carry most politicians with it.

  15. Mayan

    Eliminate Mexico’s one-side backdoor tariff through the VAT

    If VAT is a tariff, then what of state and municipal sales taxes?

    Most annoying thing about the US is never knowing the total price until your purchase has gone through the checkout. It’s like Numberwang. That and tipping.

    I hope that the turbulence of the moment settles down and the new administration weaves all of this into a coherent narrative to inform its legislative agenda, and more importantly, to have something to sell to the electorate in the mid-terms, which could be the most contentious in many years.

  16. And really how much worse can we get because of a Trump presidency?

    Now that’s a silly question. There’s always worse things that can happen.

  17. Nov

    Australia benefits significantly from trade disagreements between the US and China. Each of them is a significant competitor of ours when it comes to export to the other. That is, what USA buys from Australia, China also sells and that which China buys from Australia, USA also sells.

  18. John A;

    It probably means China has been caught doing it…

    Don’t tell JC. He reckons that the Chinese have dun nuffink manipulative and he’ll get really upset if you say so.

  19. Oh come on

    Now that’s a silly question. There’s always worse things that can happen.

    On the other hand, if something isn’t working, a fresh approach is a good idea.

    See, if you talk in generalities, you’ll always reach a stalemate as there will always be an optimistic counterpoint to your gloom.

    If you want to be a bear, fine. But you need to be specific about which parts of the proposed trade agenda you feel will have a deleterious effect on the US economy, and be prescriptive when explaining why you think these will be so.

    Else you’re just another uninformed, mindless ideologue railing against shit you don’t understand.

  20. Now I might be a bit slow on the uptake and not have the economic or philosophical underpinning of the Cat to comment properly but it was easy to support Steve Kates on Donald Trump. The fact from my viewpoint is simply that it is some time since I saw a clear statement of intent from any politician anywhere.

    So I actually like the idea of actually being informed on what he is going to do, or attempt to do. Knowing that, I then know who or what is stopping him and why.

    I certainly don’t know what Lord Wentworth of the Golden Sacks is intending, doing, possibly doing or possibly attempting to do between naps.

    Similarly in Victoriastan, with Dodgy Dan as an opponent, does anyone know or can give me a hint what Matt Le Blanc has in mind or might consider apart from his seat, expenses and not repealing anything for the next election.

    I like the idea of actually having a program that I can follow and in my view most Leadership sets out what it wants to achieve and then manages the process of achieving the goals. Ask yourself when was the last time a politician did this.

    I don’t think you need a Harvard degree to do this stuff, the same as I don’t do my taxes or medical diagnosis or legal pleadings I hire someone, give them instructions and monitor what they do and say and if I’m not satisfied fire them. In Australia we have everyone from train drivers to coppers leading us and we are still here in one of the most successful democratic country’s in the world.

    This guys hired and fired enough people on the way and has become President of the United States. As Bert Newton would say I like the boy!

    We are all just guessing, and apart from Steves acolytes, why would you trust or even give credence to Jabba Oakes, Sheriden or the other bedwetters. Best to sit back and watch the ensuing hilarity at the ABC and HRC as heads pop and the backtracking leads the global wherethefarkarewe tribe in ever decreasing circles until they disappear up their own fundamental orifices.

    He has not taken office, has not named his cabinet and we are already saying how he will harm Australia, do good for Australia, or stuff it up for the world based on a host of projections. So much for facts, just like reading the Age. I read his policy statements, I like them and will look to see if they are implemented. Hopefully they will.

    The world changed last week and I am optimistic it was for the better

  21. old bloke

    If Clinton had won the outcome for Australia would have been a lot better.

    I disagree. Trump’s energy policy will force Australia to end its renewable energy wet dreams in order to compete on a changed world stage. If the new US administration leans on us to be more self reliant with regards to national defence, that is also a bonus. No more $50 Billion French submarines for example.

    Trump will be forcing a reality check on the US which will have downstream effects on us, most of which are needed at the moment.

  22. Cannibal

    No mention of withdrawing favoured nation status from China. Or has that already gone and I missed it?
    It seems Trump wants to put a crimp on China economically, and in so doing limit their military/territorial ambitions?

  23. .

    If VAT is a tariff, then what of state and municipal sales taxes?

    Pretty silly isn’t it. Hopefully he wants to encourage them to go too, but that is overly optimistic.

  24. .

    Nov
    #2206995, posted on November 14, 2016 at 10:18 am
    Australia benefits significantly from trade disagreements between the US and China. Each of them is a significant competitor of ours when it comes to export to the other. That is, what USA buys from Australia, China also sells and that which China buys from Australia, USA also sells.

    Name a commodity or finished product please.

    Take copper for example. We might export copper to China. They finish it to cables or thin milled cable. America buys it or finishes it and sells it to new homeowners, largely in the US.

    How do we benefit if our upstream customers start a trade war?

  25. mh

    Stop bed-wetting and wait until Trump actually becomes President. If if if if if…..

    It’s Mourning in America

  26. .

    Garrison has to pop in a stupid pro drug war message. Fail.

  27. mh

    I believe this is where the focus should be for conservatives right now, either shutting down or reforming the ABC.

    BARRIE’S SHOCKER

  28. Entropy

    If Clinton had won the outcome for Australia would have been a lot better.

    I would certainly have hoped to get a bit more for our $465m investment in the Clinton Foundation than just a job for Gillard.

  29. Entropy

    Name a commodity or finished product please.

    Beef, milk,chees etc, wheat, sugar, weet bix, baby milk powder. LNG, I could go on but boring.

    Take copper for example. We might export copper to China. They finish it to cables or thin milled cable. America buys it or finishes it and sells it to new homeowners, largely in the US.

    How do we benefit if our upstream customers start a trade war?

    We just sell the commodity to different customers. How it works out price wise remains to be seen. The problem occurs when it is our products themselves that incur the tariff. For example, for us that would be beef and sugar to the USA as examples.

  30. Entropy

    In fact, it is entirely possible that the American cable manufacturers, protected as they will be by a tariff wall, would be able to allow our copper miners to extract a little economic rent from that tariff.

  31. .

    Well if it is bad for upstream supply to the US through China and for finished goods that go to China and the US, Trump’s trade policies are bad for us, and probably America.

  32. .

    Entropy
    #2207227, posted on November 14, 2016 at 1:24 pm
    In fact, it is entirely possible that the American cable manufacturers, protected as they will be by a tariff wall, would be able to allow our copper miners to extract a little economic rent from that tariff.

    How so, unless they are vertically integrated US companies that mine here and produce cable over there?

  33. thefrolickingmole

    No more $50 Billion French submarines for example.

    Yes Id be expecting to see a little more “we subsidize your defense, you buy from us” approach from Trumps mob.

  34. Entropy

    How so, unless they are vertically integrated US companies that mine here and produce cable over there?

    In this scenario isn’t the copper currently being bought by the Chinese? And if those miners are bought by the yanks, the point in this discussion is that the commodity producer (aka little land of Oz) is not measurably worse off because the copper still gets sold.

  35. Entropy

    thefrolickingmole
    #2207261, posted on November 14, 2016 at 1:44 pm
    No more $50 Billion French submarines for example.

    Yes Id be expecting to see a little more “we subsidize your defense, you buy from us” approach from Trumps mob.

    What a terrible, terrible tragedy. Not.

  36. Entropy

    .
    #2207229, posted on November 14, 2016 at 1:25 pm
    Well if it is bad for upstream supply to the US through China and for finished goods that go to China and the US, Trump’s trade policies are bad for us, and probably America.

    Bad in a world economy sense, yes. Yes indeed. But not universal, there will be winners and losers to any change in trade rules. The trick wil be to position to make sure we are, as much as possible winners rather than losers. Overall though, free trade is best for us, as I am sure you agree.

  37. .

    “Bad for world economy but not universal”

    Um, okay,

    Game theory proves strategic trade theory cannot work – just go for free trade anyway.

  38. .

    In this scenario isn’t the copper currently being bought by the Chinese? And if those miners are bought by the yanks, the point in this discussion is that the commodity producer (aka little land of Oz) is not measurably worse off because the copper still gets sold.

    The US firms would not buy Australian mining firms unless the protectionism was so high it made production cost competitive with China.

    Unless then the good is wholly insensitive to price movements, there would be less production, and we’d export less.

  39. Tel

    It probably means China has been caught doing it…

    Well Japan was hardly subtle about it, Abe-san said right upfront that he planned to smash the value of the Yen, and then bang it happened.

    The foreign ownership of US treasuries is well documented, and Japan owns heaps.

    Ownership of Australian government debt is more secretive.

  40. egg_

    check out the front page of today’s Oz re $10b boost to the budget from iron ore prices. Can’t wait either for his climate and energy policies to kick in and it will become obvious even to the odious numb-nuts in the federal LNP that we’ll have to do something similar.

    +1

  41. test pattern

    ‘Take copper for example.’

    I already have, some days ago. And before that, lithium.

    Trump’s proposed Keynesian infrastructure and military build fiscal stimulus should help raise copper and aluminium prices temporarily. Foremployment in a mining State like WA to prosper it needs investment for exploration. Selling current copper reserves won’t find the reserves of tomorrow unless we make it easier for explorers.

  42. test pattern

    ‘Three months after Trump declared his infamous Muslim ban last December, his campaign according to Arab diplomatic sources, reached out to different Middle East embassies in Washington, DC. The message from the Trump campaign to key Arab diplomats last Spring was a plea to “ignore Mr. Trump’s rhetoric on the campaign trail.”

    The outreach which was done by his staff mostly to key states in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), had Trump relay assurances to those governments and capitals where he has business partnerships, that “what is being said on the campaign trail is different from how he would govern”, and that he “looks forward to do business together and explore opportunities were he to win the Presidency.” ‘

    https://english.alarabiya.net/en/views/news/middle-east/2016/11/10/Donald-Trump-and-the-Middle-East-Ignore-the-campaign-rhetoric-.html

  43. JC

    Testes

    Trump’s plan is not Keynesian. If you believe it is then we need clarification of eggsactly how you define Keynesian economics.

    Go!

  44. test pattern

    With the TPP gone, the TISA will be the big test for Trump

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trade_in_Services_Agreement

  45. Nato

    My eyes were snared by the ‘Trade’ in your title, and reminded me of the an article marginalrevolution.com (probably just missing the cutoff for the last round-up) linked to quoting the Chinese media. “Rational people realize that after decades of development, economic and trade cooperation has become the brightest spot in Sino-U.S. relations.”

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/in-china-and-around-asia-a-sense-of-disbelief-that-trump-could-mean-what-he-says-on-trade/2016/11/10/eee1ee6e-a6a7-11e6-ba46-53db57f0e351_story.html

    I’m sure the Cats would have put a different spin on the story, but it’s interesting news.

  46. BorisG

    The fact from my viewpoint is simply that it is some time since I saw a clear statement of intent from any politician anywhere.

    I don’t believe any statements of intent from any politicians. Trump included.

  47. BorisG

    Trup has got in promising to restore jobs.
    Shock horror he may do just that.

    I am sure he intends to create jobs. whether this policy will lead to that remains to be seen. But generally speaking protectionism can only help in the short term. Besides most jobs are lost due to automation and evolution of the industries, not offshoring.

    One example: Truck companies can’t find any suitable candidates because none of those who apply for the job can pass their drug test.

  48. Walter Plinge

    “The outcome would be job losses and major budgetary issues”
    Only if we sit around moaning about how hard done by we are. Given the LNP’s preference for doing nothing that seems to be likely. We could, on the other hand, take note of what fuelled the Industrial Revolution: cheap energy. Cheap power from vastly increased coal-fired electricity, ruthlessly cutting out green subsidy scams, and ramping up coal seam gas will bring revitalise industry.

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