Economic theory is next

From Instapundit:

PAUL KRUGMAN TWO WEEKS AGO ON ELECTION NIGHT: “If the question is when markets will recover, a first-pass answer is never.”

CNBC today: Dow closes above 19,000 as stocks notch record closing highs. “The Dow Jones industrial average rose about 70 points, closing above 19,000 for the first time ever, with Home Depot contributing the most gains. . . . The S&P 500 closed over 2,200 for the first time, as telecommunications rose about 2.1 percent to lead advancers. The Nasdaq composite also closed at all-time highs, rising approximately a third of a percent.”

Hey, it’s 2016. Anything can happen.

 

And here are the top five economists on twitter with their number of followers.

Rank Author Followers
1. Krugman, Paul R. 2088110
2. Stiglitz, Joseph E. 160653
3. Wolfers, Justin 112875
4. Easterly, William 88974
5. Shiller, Robert J. 84629
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28 Responses to Economic theory is next

  1. stackja

    top five economists on twitter with their number of followers

    Blind leading the blind?

  2. Bruce of Newcastle

    Kruggles is on a roll…

    The Long Haul

    As I said in today’s column, nobody who thought Trump would be a disaster should change his or her mind because he won the election. He will, in fact, be a disaster on every front. And I think he will eventually drag the Republican Party into the abyss along with his own reputation; the question is whether he drags the rest of the country, and the world, down with him.

    The world is not enough…Trump will destroy the galaxy, the universe! And that is just the warm up.

    The true awfulness of Trump will become apparent over time. Bad things will happen, and he will be clueless about how to respond; if you want a parallel, think about how Katrina revealed the hollowness of the Bush administration, and multiply by a hundred.

    Only a hundred? I demand Trump be a thousand times worse than Bush666!

    It’s going to be a long time in the wilderness, and it’s going to be awful. If I sound calm and philosophical, I’m not — like everyone who cares, I’m frazzled, sleepless, depressed.

    Read a book by Mises or our own Steve Kates, son, that will put you right to sleep in no time.

  3. thefrolickingmole

    The ABC was scratching for bad economic news they could pin on the Tru666mp beast so resorted to “global markets were down” this morning.

  4. OldOzzie

    In the meantime how the Loverly Inner City Latte/Chardonnay Sipping Elites react with politeness

    Politico Editor RESIGNS After Publishing Home Addresses Of Alt-Right Icon Richard Spencer, Advocating For ‘Baseball Bats’

    National editor at Politico Michael Hirsh resigned after publishing the home addresses of alt-right figurehead Richard Spencer Tuesday morning and advocating for serious violence.

    Politico confirmed his resignation following requests for comment from The Daily Caller News Foundation.

    “Stop whining about Richard B. Spencer, Nazi, and exercise your rights as decent Americans,” Hirsh wrote in a public Facebook post. “Here are his two addresses.”

    “These posts were clearly outside the bounds of acceptable discourse, and POLITICO editors regard them as a serious lapse of newsroom standards,” Politico Editor-In-Chief John Harris and Editor Carrie Budoff Brown told TheDCNF. “They crossed a line in ways that the publication will not defend, and editors are taking steps to ensure that such a lapse does not occur again.”

    While Hirsh’s initial post could have been charitably interpreted to imply advocacy of a non-violent protest outside of Spencer’s home or other similar non-violent actions, a subsequent question and answer clarified Hirsh’s intentions.

    “Completely agree we should mobilize against his hateful ideas, but what does knowing his home addresses do?” one Facebook user asked Hirsh. “Send a letter? Confront him in person? Seems like counter-speech is the main thing we can do. You can call it ‘whining’ but I’m not sure that’s fair or constructive. Side note: Apparently the GSA-owned Ronald Reagan International Trade Center in DC felt obligated to host his organization’s event because it can’t discriminate against speech under the First Amendment, so there’s that problem, too.”

    Hirsh responded in an unhinged manner: “I wasn’t thinking of a fucking letter, Doug. He lives part of the time next door to me in Arlington. Our grandfathers brought baseball bats to Bund meetings. Want to join me?”

    Perhaps knowing it wasn’t such a good idea to advocate openly for serious violence against Spencer in a public format, Hirsh deleted the post, but not before TheDCNF grabbed a screenshot.

    \

  5. OldOzzie

    Kruggles is on a roll…

    The Long Haul

    As I said in today’s column, nobody who thought Trump would be a disaster should change his or her mind because he won the election. He will, in fact, be a disaster on every front. And I think he will eventually drag the Republican Party into the abyss along with his own reputation; the question is whether he drags the rest of the country, and the world, down with him.

    Hey Kruggles

    Democrats search for answers to stem a spreading Republican tide

    MONTPELIER, Vt. (Reuters) – Still sifting through the wreckage of the Nov. 8 election, Democratic leaders nationwide are struggling to find a new message to claw back support and avoid years in the political wilderness.

    Not only do Republicans control the White House and both the U.S. Senate and the House of Representatives, they now hold 33 governor’s offices.

    New England, long considered reliably Democratic, is a prime example of the party’s demise.

    Republican Phil Scott won in Vermont over Democrat Sue Minter who was criticized, like presidential nominee Hillary Clinton, for failing to develop an economic message that resonated with voters worried about good-paying jobs.

    Considered a liberal bastion, Vermont has a tradition of sometimes choosing a Republican governor to keep one party from having too much control.

    Elsewhere, Republican Chris Sununu will replace a Democratic governor in New Hampshire while Maine and Massachusetts already have Republican governors.

    “We lost the governorship of freaking Vermont,” lamented Washington-based Democratic strategist Chris Kofinis. “We didn’t just lose an election. This was a national rebuke. This was biblical.”

    Republicans also command 32 state legislatures and have full control — meaning they hold the governor’s office and both legislative chambers — in 24 states, including swing states such as Florida, Ohio, Michigan, and Wisconsin. When President Barack Obama was elected in 2008, they controlled just nine.

    “There are more Republicans at the state legislative level than there have ever been,” said Tim Storey, an analyst with the National Conference of State Legislatures.

    Republicans scored a major coup when they seized the Senate in traditionally liberal Minnesota, giving it full control of the legislature, and they gained full control of next-door Iowa.

    “The party’s message, structure and apparatus are broken,” said Kofinis, who was chief of staff to moderate Democratic Senator Joe Manchin of West Virginia. “We haven’t acknowledged it for years because we had the White House.”

    Obama’s two terms masked a crumbling party infrastructure.

    During Obama’s tenure, Democrats lost over 800 state legislative seats, at least 13 governorships and both houses of Congress.

    Party insiders are reluctant to blame the popular Obama but cite plenty of reasons for the decline.

    These include a muddled economic message; an overemphasis on emerging demographic groups such as minorities and millennial at the expense of white voters; a perception the party is elitist and aligned with Wall Street; a reluctance to embrace the progressive populism of Senator Bernie Sanders, the former presidential hopeful; and failure to field strong candidates in key states.

    There is an emerging consensus, they add, that the party has been too focused on winning national races and has not invested enough in local campaigns, along with a grudging admission that Republicans have done a better job of competing on the ground.

    As a result, a poor performance by the Democrats in the 2010 midterm elections gave Republicans control of statehouses across the country, allowing them to redraw legislative maps to fashion districts that would help ensure their long-term electoral success.

    “I think the foundation was built back in 2010,” Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker told Reuters. “There was a big wave and then for many of us that were elected in ’10, we got reelected in ’14 in battleground states – Wisconsin, Florida, Ohio, Michigan. You look at the states that were key to the presidential win, were states where Republicans did well in ‘10 and then sustained it.”

    “UNDER-RESOURCED”

    Democrats are working to recover and looking ahead to governor’s races in New Jersey and Virginia next year to make up lost ground. Governor’s offices have become crucial for another reason: Republican governors signed voter suppression measures in states such as North Carolina that Democrats believe damaged turnout.

    Sununu has said that as one of his first acts as governor in New Hampshire, he would like to end the state’s practice of allowing same-day voter registration. As with redistricting, it is another lever of power that Republicans can wield to make sure they remain in the majority for a long time.

  6. J.H.

    People forget that the Tea Party movement was a State as well as Federal movement. It captured senate seats, governorships and other state legislative positions for the Republicans, but not only that, because the Tea Party Movement was a cross party movement, some of the new Democrat changes were won by Tea Party ideologues….. Trump has cashed in on a situation that has been 8 years in the making…. but he is the man for the job.

    One of the “Tea Party guys” was supposed to win the candidacy, Cruz, Rubio, Ryan, Walker, etc….. But Trump’s star outshone them all.

    Together over the next two years running up to the mid terms will be proof if this Tea Party movement worked, or will it all just revert back to “Business as usual”….. I think Trump will stop any slide back towards that situation.

    Anyway, we shall see. The political establishment has been outflanked….. and the Democrat Party has been hit particularly hard…. The Socialists/Statists, never even saw it coming.

  7. Rebel with cause

    Krugman will be a wreck by the end of the Trump presidency

  8. John Comnenus

    I look forward to Krugman starting to write articles explaining how the Trump recovery was actually the Obama recovery – it was just delayed 8 yrs becasue $8 trillion stimulus should have been more and that the 2008 downturn was so great that it took two whole terms for the measures taken by Obama to wash into the real economy. Or something like that.

    Krugman will never acknowledge that lower taxes might actually – you know – um – er – stimulate the economy.

  9. iain russell

    HT to OldOzzie for the Kofinis quotes. K-Man is the only one of the BoBos who realises what has happened.

  10. Nerblnob

    Heh. #2 on the Twitter list, Stieglitz.

    The guy who stated confidently a few years ago that Venezuela was a new economic model the world should follow.

  11. Bronson

    Economists at work – ‘you want fries with that’?

  12. Ooh Honey Honey

    All this makes sense if you simply reframe your understanding: Stop thinking of Kruger as “an economist”. He is a person capable of practicing economics (explaining what happens) who is currently working as an entertainer (broadcasting what everyone wants to happen).
    Not everyone gets to work in the field for which they are trained.

  13. Far Right Heretic

    (((Krugman))) is just preempting the economic collapse he knows (((Soros))) is planning.

  14. Pyrmonter

    Easterly is sound. What’s he doing in that list?

    And why aren’t, say, Russ Roberts, Tyler Cowan, Bryan Caplan or Scott Sumner in there?

  15. Nerblnob

    Easterly is sound. What’s he doing in that list?

    And why aren’t, say, Russ Roberts, Tyler Cowan, Bryan Caplan or Scott Sumner in there?

    I know fuckall about economic theory except what I’ve learned on here, but I do know that Krugman and Stiglitz are the New York Times, and seemingly all the lefty media, go-to guys for the wrong explanation of everything.

    Hence their Twitter popularity.

    Think about the demographic for this stuff.

  16. Sinclair Davidson

    I don’t think it’s fair to lump Bill Easterly in with the others.

  17. Far Right Heretic

    @Nerblnob: Most economists are intellectual light weights but then so are their audience. Easily explained, feel good theories are what the masses, right or left, want to hear.

  18. OldOzzie

    You mean Economic Theory as practiced by The Victorian Labor Government

    Victoria wipes away liability for drilling bans

    Legislation enacting Victoria’s unprecedented bans on onshore petroleum exploration has arrived with the added but necessary insult of protections that explicitly protect the government from financial liability for the damage caused to drillers by this reactive, retrograde and unscientific decision.

    The liability protections established in the legislation have been made retrospective from August 24, 2012, and cover a range of possibilities created by legislation that purports to permanently ban the development of the state’s rich onshore gas potential and the onshore deployment of hydraulic fracturing, which is extensively used to maximise the potential of both conventional and unconventional petroleum resources.

    That August date is when a previous Liberal-led coalition government introduced a baseless but politically satisfying moratorium on the search for economic coal seam gas deposits across the state. Uniquely, that moratorium has now been extended to cover all onshore drilling in the state.

    Worse still, the legislation delivers ministerial power to reacquire onshore petroleum leases owned by the disenfranchised drillers but at a price set by the government itself and through a window of opportunity that closes in six months.

    Explorers that have thrown financial and human capital at the search for onshore oil and gas in Victoria over (and before) the past four years and three months will be robbed of all that they thought they owned, and of the ability to be properly compensated for the damage this shift of policy has caused their owners. They also face the prospect of being corralled into surrendering their licences for a peppercorn or risk losing them for nothing when it comes time for government to extend exploration licences.

    If something looks and sounds like blackmail, then how else are we to describe it?

    Given this proposal becomes law then it would seem to render materially moot the potential of an extant judicial review of the legality of the Andrews government’s proposed ban on unconventional drilling and an extended moratorium on more traditional drilling within state boundaries.

    That Supreme Court test was called for by the junior driller most punished by the planned bans, Lakes Oil. On Monday we asked its chief executive, Roland Sleeman, for his reaction to news that the Labor government has introduced the legislation that would reduce his Victorian aspirations to costly memories.

    We got our answer on Tuesday morning. It was worth the wait. Sleeman had still not actually seen the proposed legislation. But he noted first that the fact the government has resorted to legislation and retrospective protections reinforced the proposition that the government previously lack the power to flout the requirements of its own petroleum exploration laws.

    “If it did have the requisite powers it would not need new legislation,” he noted logically.

    Sleeman predicted the government would enact retrospective protections “to validate its erroneous behaviour to date, to stymie our Judicial Review proceedings and to prevent any liability for damages”.

    “To the extent there is retrospectivity, it will be a very sad day for this country,” he claimed. “Australia’s international reputation will be significantly compromised by the sovereign risk implications of any retrospectivity.

    “Lakes Oil has in good faith spent many tens of millions of dollars exploring onshore Victoria and is ready to commercialise its acreage, beginning with but not limited to the Wombat gas field [in respect of which letters of intent were in place for sale of gas]. The resource potential, the gas production potential and the value of the Wombat project have all been subject to independent scrutiny.

    “Lakes Oil has suffered huge damage as a consequence of the government’s invalid decisions. We will continue to monitor developments and will take actions as appropriate to protect the interests of not only our shareholders, but also Victorians generally.

    “Premier Andrews’ pandering to lobby groups and shutting down all exploration, ‘conventional’ included, does nothing for farmers. Our activities don’t compromise what farmers do. On the contrary, payments made for access to farmers’ land represent drought-proof income that provides security for them.

    “By shutting down the petroleum industry in Victoria, Andrews is setting the state up for problems with increasing gas and electricity prices, shortages of gas supply, loss of manufacturing industry, loss of employment and [by the way] loss of royalty revenue that would otherwise be earned.

    “When it comes to clean and green, few would disagree that New Zealand has more bragging rights than Victoria. A couple of weeks ago, the Honourable Simon Bridges, NZ Minster for Energy and Resources, visited us in Melbourne with an open invitation to take a presence in NZ, and with a clear message that exploration, and hydraulic stimulation [fraccing], are welcome.

    “Andrews has either been totally misguided by his advisers or, more likely, he is simply selling out the state under the pretext of clean green farming in a move that he thinks might help retain power.”

    To be clear on this point, the government has confirmed to The Australian Financial Review that it did not seek independent scientific analysis of the risks of onshore oil and gas drilling and production before its unique ban on the industry’s operation in the state. Doubtless that is because those few who knew anything at all about the drilling technologies in question are aware that independent scientific studies have consistently identified that what risk exists is known and very manageable.

    This, for example, was the conclusion of the most recent Australian study conducted by the chief scientist of NSW, Mary O’Kane. Her conclusions stand consistent with the assessments of a host of US state and federal environmental agencies that have concluded that unconventional technologies are geologically uncontroversial though they require firm regulatory oversight for the management of waste waters that are returned to the surface.

    It is telling, surely, that Victoria’s own chief scientist was not asked to validate the state government’s technologically irrational bias. Why seek to make informed, fact-based judgments when the demands of urban and rural voters are more easily stated by collective delusion and stupid law?

  19. Nerblnob

    I take that drilling ban personally.
    Bunch of ignorant cnuts. Welcome to the Dark Ages.

    I’m dubious about “Victoria’s rich onshore potential” but you’ll never know if you don’t have a go.

    What they’ve done to Lakes is ethically and morally disgusting.

  20. Kvantum

    Question to Steve: how are Trump’s announced economic and trade policies stacking up for you?

  21. OldOzzie

    Anything Can Happen

    Computer scientist who urged Clinton to pursue recount doesn’t believe it’s likely election was hacked

    best comments


    We’ve seen this show before; some Dem official somehow finds a box of missing ballots in the trunk of their car or the like…

    Prius’s just don’t have enough trunk space for effective vote rigging.

  22. Ellen of Tasmania

    http://contrakrugman.com

    Tom Woods & Bob Murphy have a weekly show assessing Paul Krugman’s NYT columns. From an Austrian/anarcho-capitalist perspective.

    I don’t think it’s fair to lump Bill Easterly in with the others.

    Wasn’t Steve just showing the top five economists on twitter? I don’t think that says anything about their economic philosophy – just their twitty following.

  23. JohnA

    OldOzzie #2217336, posted on November 23, 2016, at 3:16 pm

    In the meantime how the Loverly Inner City Latte/Chardonnay Sipping Elites react with politeness

    Politico Editor RESIGNS After Publishing Home Addresses Of Alt-Right Icon Richard Spencer, Advocating For ‘Baseball Bats’

    RESIGNED?? That editor should not have been given the courtesy. He should have been summarily dismissed for cause and should have forfeited all termination entitlements.

  24. OldOzzie

    More New Economic Theory – Could Cat Supporters start a Movement to send 20Kg Bags of salt to Michelle Guthrie ABC to show our displeasure with their “Salty” UnBalanced coverage?

    Trump Supporters On Reddit Are Mailing Salt To The New York Times


    Reddit users have begun a campaign titled #SendEmSalt where they send The New York Times offices large bags of salt, ridiculing the publication for their angry (or “salty”) reaction to the election of Donald Trump.
    Users in /r/The_Donald, Reddit’s largest Donald Trump supporting community, posted a thread three days ago titled, “#SendEmSalt: An attempt to deliver 1 ton of salt to the New York Times”. Within the thread, user /u/njmksr writes, “While I was viewing the frontpage today, I was inspired by one ‘Pede’s [a term short for centipede that refers to Trump supporters] act of sending the NYT 25 pounds of salt. So, I thought we could follow in this brave patriot’s footsteps and pool together to send the New York Times an entire literal ton of salt.”

    The symbolic gesture of sending bags of salt appears to be a commentary on what many of Reddit’s President-elect Trump supporting community view as an angry reaction to the election by the New York Times. Donald Trump himself has claimed that of all publications, the NYT treated him “the roughest of all”. “ I have great respect for The New York Times. Tremendous respect. It’s very special,” said Trump in a meeting with the NYT,

    “I think I’ve been treated very rough. It’s well out there that I’ve been treated extremely unfairly in a sense, in a true sense. I wouldn’t only complain about The Times. I would say The Times was about the roughest of all.”

    According to /u/njmskr on Reddit, a total number of 105 twenty-five pound bags of salt have been sent, 16 more than was needed to make up the full ton of salt that users hoped to send to the New York Times offices.

    Breitbart reached out to the NYT for comment asking whether or not they had received the bags and if so how many. In an email to Breitbart, New York Times Senior Vice President of Communications, Eileen Murphy neither confirmed nor denied whether or not the salt had been received but did say “If they [the bags of salt] had been received, our practice would be to put them in dumpsters directly in the mailroom.”

    This may come as unfortunate news for the many Reddit users who hoped that the salt would be put to good use, perhaps in a local homeless kitchen, “DEAR NYT, when you get this salt, please donate it to somewhere that needs it, like a homeless hospitality kitchen. Don’t just hoard it or send it back. Do something good with it.” /u/njmskr wrote in his initial Reddit thread.

    Users are continuing to send salt.

  25. Jim

    My casual observation is that any material connection between the economy and financial markets is illusory at best most of the time, so why expect a retired academic economist like Krugman to have any insight?

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