A little bit of perspective

Not surprisingly, lots of people, not just in the US, are trying to draw lessons from Donald Trump’s victory in the US election.  Fair enough.

What lessons can be learned for local politics?  Was is Trump’s views on trade, economics, and foreign policy?  Was it his outsider status and his “delivery”?  Probably all of those and more.

The games have already begun here in Australia with debates about immigration, infrastructure spending and domestic industry policy.  There has been discussion of corporate tax rates also, but sadly, there has been no discussion on reducing the deficit, reigning in red tape and unwinding the climate change industrial complex (or should that be the climate change de-industrial complex?).

Yes.  Donald Trump’s victory was significant and is important, but it should also be noted that the Democrats also got “done” in congressional, senatorial and gubernatorial races.  Between 2008 (election of Barak Obama) and 2016 (election of Donald Trump):

  • Democrats lost 12 senate seats (from 60 to 48 out of 100)
  • Democrats lost 41 congress seats (from 233 to 192 out 435)
  • Democrats lost 14 governorships (from 29 to 15 out of 50)

This was not just a Clinton loss but Democratic Party loss.  But notwithstanding, all the focus is on Trump.

Yes Hillary Clinton was a terrible (and risky) candidate.  Yes Obamacare and other President Obama policies were  abject failures.  Yes there must be some correlation between all these results.  But the non-Presidential results cannot be entirely explained by the Trump or Clinton effects.

If there is one take away that certainly must be drawn, it is the declining accuracy and relevance of polls.  Perhaps that should be a lesson for our major parties.  If you are going to have a change in leaders, the reason better a hell of a lot better than poll numbers.  Another takeaway, perhaps, is where on the left-right continuum the bulk of the populous sit may not be where it is currently assumed.

One thing is for sure.  The next major election (state and/or federal) will be very interesting to watch.

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33 Responses to A little bit of perspective

  1. Roger

    …and unwinding the climate change industrial complex (or should that be the climate change de-industrial complex?).

    Ask Josh Frydenberg, he’s the minister responsible.

  2. National identity is under universal assault by cultural marxists. Free trade is decimating west’s industrial base: jobs and factories and vanishing at astonishing rates. Well below fertility rates are decimating our future and if we don’t acquiesce to being replaced by 3rd world hordes we are accused of being racist.

    Just about every leftist policy is designed to destroy our future. Mainstreaming sexual deviance and mental illness, no-fault divorce, herding women through higher education and into the workforce create an unsustainable civilisation.

  3. Michel Lasouris

    Your comment re the Pollsters…It could be that the polls; far from reflecting the mood of the public, are in fact influencing the voters….for money. What guarantee is there that the Pollsters are not selecting the results required of them? Is there any legislation ( let alone a code of ethics) that ensures the public are not being duped. I’d not trust ’em
    any further than I could throw ’em

  4. RobK

    All of the above and more. The voters are sensitive to intangibles such as freedom to fish, hunt, camp out, go prospecting, farm your own land etc. All are being eroded for the sake of the common good but tangible prosperity is suffering at the same time. At some point enough is enough and push back prevails. There’s more to life than working for someone else’s utopian dream.

  5. Maybe more people than surveyed were concerned about WW3. Heavy militarisation from Norway to Azerbaijan. Intensification of Russian defenses. Assad the new Darth Vader, complete with chemical attacks on own citizens etc. The EU, Clinton and Biden rattling sabres, seeing Russians under the beds. Hillary copping all that dough from Gulf States, Algeria, Lockheed Martin, Boeing…That sort of thing. Know what I’m talking about?

    I’m not saying the average punters did much analysis of these things. It’s just that they may not be as average as the purveyors of glorified push-polls think they are.

    With the slavishness and infantilisation of corporate media, we almost missed WW3 brewing. But maybe we got a glimpse, and that gave us just enough “perspective” to change our minds about who should be running the show. The likes of Abbott and Turnbull need to keep that in mind next time they take up the tune of “Assad must go” or leap to the defense of Ukrainian kleptocrats or boost the drongo German Empire.

  6. Razor

    I think that except for those caught in the property greed cycle, Many realise that the music has to and will stop and probably sooner rather than later. I think there is a general sense of an economic catastrophy around the corner – again except for those who are so into property that they will suffer the greatest losses and so will away those edgy thoughts.
    I am very gratefull that while Europe was giving away everything that they had built up over many generations, John Howard and Costello held a tight rein on the family silver. A labour party then in power began globalism in top gear – many items of which are hard to turn around. Strong will was necessary and unfortunately Abbot caved to his party minions.
    In one sense however the contrast with the extreme weakness of Turnbull in the face of obvious ranting by the greens and Labour, has demonstrated that as a conservative party the Liberals are lost in a desert.

    I sense that One Nation will see a further astronomic rise at the next election.

  7. fhb5

    Comments from by Climate Skeptic Tony Heller are very interesting. He along with Tim Ball were here to meet with Malcolm Roberts and help in his push to have the CSIRO climate alarmism bullshit reviewed by the senate. Malcolm Roberts has been invited to meet with the soon to be head of the US EPA and possibly the President Elect himself. He clearly indicated that The Labor & Liberal Parties are unlikely to be as welcome as One Nation given their rather stupid comments on Trump. See this video from 3:03: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dcEgV5TBTuU

  8. cui bono

    Plenty of ‘shy Liberals’ out there. Dutton knows how to appeal to them.

  9. Rabz

    The next major election (state and/or federal) will be very interesting to watch.

    Somehow I doubt it the next federal election will be. Labor will easily win more than enough lower house seats to form government and will have a majority in the senate with the assistance of the greenfilth.

    The longer the Waffler is persisted with as PM, the greater the swing away from the liberals will be.

  10. Entropy

    They can’t shaft lord waffle until it is too close to a general election to hold a bi election. The tool would just resign from parliament when he finally gets justice. Then the greens get the seat and the government falls. So, two or three months before.

  11. Robbo

    Post election all the concentration has been on Trump. How did he do it is the question so many are asking. I think that those who are obsessing on Trump and his winning tactics are missing the point. The person, and the Party, that should be receiving all the attention is Hillary Clinton and the Democratic Party.
    What possessed the Democratic Party to risk all on a person who had so much bad baggage and didn’t anybody bother to think that her many dubious activities as the wife of a State Governor, President and then as Secretary of State would do her major damage? She was arguably the most unsuitable candidate the Democrats could have found and it is not as if all of that was not known to those running that Party. Their arrogance was that they thought they could easily sell this badly tarnished bag of goods to the voters. They badly underestimated the voters and they badly underestimated Trump. No wonder he won the election when he had a bunch of arrogant idiots as his opponents.

  12. Marcus

    Plenty of ‘shy Liberals’ out there. Dutton knows how to appeal to them.

    Yeah, but you just know that if they knife Turnbull it’ll be for Morrison.

    I think one of the takeouts of recent election/referendum results is the value of authenticity in a leader or message. The “out” side in Brexit prevailed, while in the “in” case was built on a scare campaign so ridiculous that no one could think that the people running it actually believed it. Barnaby Joyce’s Nationals saw their share of the vote increase at the Federal election, while Turnbull’s Liberals went backwards at a rate of knots. Donald Trump beat Hilary because people thought, well, he’s a jackass but at least he’s an authentic jackass, whereas Hilary was the embodiment of a plastic, out-of-touch politician. Even the Nationals in Orange went backwards because they’d forgotten their roots and became too in thrall to the Liberals (who are looking increasingly Green over there).

    Given that, I’m actually quite optimistic that the Barnett Government can win in March. Even though he’s not “popular,” he has a certain authenticity about him, whereas the opposition leader would be a pretty good parody of a modern politician in a comedy skit if he weren’t actually real.

    My other reason for optimism, of course, is that Peter Van Onselen’s been talking up WA Labor a bit lately, and he couldn’t be more out of touch if he lived on Pluto.

  13. Marcus;

    My other reason for optimism, of course, is that Peter Van Onselen’s been talking up WA Labor a bit lately, and he couldn’t be more out of touch if he lived on Pluto.

    Wot? Like a flea?
    Nyuk, nyuk…etc…

  14. Muddy

    If there is one take away that certainly must be drawn, it is the declining accuracy and relevance of polls ‘experts.’

  15. Tel

    The US economy is decidedly lacklustre, people want change.

  16. Keeping Turnbull is the unthinkable, which is why I often pop into this site when the worthy Sinclair does some of his nudge-wink boosting of MT.

    Turnbull is electoral poison because he is hopelessly inarticulate, indecisive, inactive and unpopular. When he makes a decision, like the Pyne Class Subs, you wish he’d go back to just fantasizing aloud. And he is right on board with Big Green.

    Keeping Turnbull means giving it to Labor, despite the unpopularity of its leader and front bench. We came close to giving it to Labor a few months ago.

    Punt on someone different, instead of a sure loser who is a globocrat’s wet dream. Maybe Morrison, unhindered by Turnbull and the appalling Bishop, in the non-tech role of PM, can as a minimum keep Labor out of power by getting on with the likes of Hadley. At least he can finish a sentence, knows how to pronounce “mate” using his nostrils, and can point to one portfolio not bungled.

    I’m not here to boost Morro, far from it, just to plead for the removal of Turnbull. Don’t even joke about keeping this turkey. That’s about as funny as a Labor government.

  17. Tel

    Turnbull is electoral poison …

    My prediction: Turnbull tries to pass Gay Marriage without any consultation with either his party or the Australian people, and his party turn on him. Turnbull will pick a time when he thinks no one is looking, probably when something big is happening in the USA like maybe early Trump policy rollout.

  18. Michael Muscat

    One thing is for sure.  The next major election (state and/or federal) will be very interesting to watch.

    No, it won’t. Liberals are a complete bunch of soft-left cucks.

  19. Lloyd Dobler

    It is publicly acknowledged that HRC was and remains a devotee of Alinsky.

    Alinsky’s 13 Rules for the Left are a set of IKEA instructions for every ‘morally superior ‘ agitator around.

    To me polling information is quite simply rule number one

    1. Power is not only what you have but what the enemy thinks you have.

    PS have you noticed there is a lot of talk about Nazis and Trump all of a sudden.

    I had a feckless person (has a Masters currently researching their PhD) tell me that Trump was a Nazi.

    You should have seen the look on her face when I replied ‘Nazi, a national socialist’ .

    Trump is many things but he is not a socialist.

    Cue the Santa Claus isn’t real face.

    So every time I hear the word Nazi, I always add national socialist.

    Just to be historically accurate.

  20. jupes

    The next major election (state and/or federal) will be very interesting to watch.

    Bollocks.

    We have just witnessed the greatest election we will witness in our lifetimes.

    Everything else will pale into insignificance. In particular an Australian federal election. Remember the last one? No, nor do I however apparently they held one earlier this year. I must have slept through it.

  21. For some reason, these other Alinsky rules don’t get much airplay, I wonder why….

    The remaining 11 rules Alinsky describes are concerned with “the ethics of means and ends”:

    1. “One’s concern with the ethics of means and ends varies inversely with one’s personal interest in the issue … Accompanying this rule is the parallel one that one’s concern with the ethics of means and ends varies inversely with one’s distance from the scene of conflict.”

    2. “[T]he judgment of the ethics of means is dependent upon the political position of those sitting in judgment.”

    3. “[I]n war the end justifies almost any means.”

    4. “[J]udgment must be made in the context of the times in which the action occurred and not from any other chronological vantage point.”

    5. “[C]oncern with ethics increases with the number of means available and vice versa.”

    6. “[T]he less important the end to be desired, the more one can afford to engage in ethical evaluations of means.”

    7. “[G]enerally success or failure is a mighty determinant of ethics.”

    8. “[T]he morality of a means depends upon whether the means is being employed at a time of imminent defeat or imminent victory.”

    9. “[A]ny effective means is automatically judged by the opposition as being unethical.”

    10. “[Y]ou do what you can with what you have and clothe it with moral garments.”

    11. “[G]oals must be phrased in general terms like ‘Liberty, Equality, Fraternity,’ ‘Of the Common Welfare,’ ‘Pursuit of Happiness,’ or ‘Bread and Peace.’”

  22. Ross B

    The Libs must have somehow found that long lost and hitherto not-so-certain Alinsky Rule – smile stupidly for the cameras no matter how utterly lame you are.
    Anyone got the slightest idea what any Lib out here has to actually smile about? They are toast…

  23. Ross B

    Guess they’ve still got Savva nd Van Onandon…

  24. wal1957

    I predict that the next election will not be won outright by either of the 2 majors. More and more voters are turning to alternatives, and that is not going to change no matter who is leader of the 2 major parties.
    Politicians are out of touch with their electorate.
    I would reckon 99% of those on this blog would fare batter at balancing the budget than either political party at the moment. The reasoning is quite simple…pollies don’t want to make any politically dangerous decisions. Therefore they are derelict and incompetent. Thus we wait another 3 years…for…???
    The so-called Brexit and Trump surprises should not surprise anybody. The majority of people have had a gut-full of being ignored by the major parties.
    Fix the bloody budget…

    18C…get rid of it. It doesn’t work and it never will. (Unless your goal is to stifle opinion and free thought)

    Immigration is a concern to most Australians. Just because we are concerned does NOT mean we are racists!

    I thought Gullard was the worst PM in my lifetime…not because she was a woman, but because she was the most divisive, incompetent PM I have seen….so because I rate her as such I’m called a misogynist? Give me a break!

    The older I get, the lower my opinion of all politicians becomes.

  25. Immigration is a concern to most Australians. Just because we are concerned does NOT mean we are racists!

    If you prefer your own race, then you are racist. If you prefer women then you are homophobic. If you think women are in anyway inferior to men then you are sexist. If you don’t think islam is a religion of peace then you are islamophobic.

  26. Crossie

    What guarantee is there that the Pollsters are not selecting the results required of them? Is there any legislation

    Opinion polls are, like anything else in the media, mostly advertising. Internal polls undertaken by parties are the only opinion polls that can be believed but we do not get to see them.

    Polls are meant to tell politicians what the public thinks yet now they are used more often to tell the public what to think.

  27. Crossie

    The longer the Waffler is persisted with as PM, the greater the swing away from the liberals will be.

    Of course, we told them at the last election that he is a negative for the party but they know better. By not deposing him the Liberal Party leaders are telling their voters again that they don’t matter and that they will be OK with a Labor win.

    If Nationals don’t pull Libs into line they also will lose, the recent Orange by-election result is the shape of things to come.

  28. Leo G

    The next major election (state and/or federal) will be very interesting to watch.

    The next By-election (and its consequences) in a Liberal-held federal division could be more than just interesting.
    The PM uneqivocally put himself in the Clinton camp during the campaign to elect the US President and has subsequently allowed the media to present him as an Obama sycophant.
    The inauguration of President Trump occurs at midday on the 20th January (local time Washington DC). The critical day for Malcolm Turnbull might be Terminalia (23rd February).
    His loyal colleagues will lose their nerve well before the Ides of March.
    And et tu Channel Two.

  29. Crossie

    Punt on someone different, instead of a sure loser who is a globocrat’s wet dream. Maybe Morrison, unhindered by Turnbull and the appalling Bishop,

    By hitching his wagon to Turnbull Morrison has derailed his chances. He had a high profile and Lib voters’ respect and squandered it all by doing Turnbull’s dirty work for him. Had he stood on the sidelines and bided his time he would now be the natural successor. Morrison knows he is now hated as much as Mal and shows it in interviews.

  30. A Lurker

    I sense that One Nation will see a further astronomic rise at the next election.

    I predict that too – Pauline is really connecting with ordinary people, just about every day she has a podcast on Facebook, and every week she interacts directly with the punters reading and responding to messages in live Facebook sessions. You simply do not see that reaching out from other politicians (excepting Senator Bernardi with his regular emails and Senator Leyonhjelm’s contributions to the Cat). All other politicians express various levels of disengagement and indifference to their constituents from being relatively active (Barnaby Joyce) to others being completely AWOL.

  31. Tom

    But the non-Presidential results cannot be entirely explained by the Trump or Clinton effects.

    Yes, they can.

    Trump was the change candidate and Crooked was the establishment. In most of the races, most voted against the establishment because the silent majority has had a gutful.

    If there is one take away that certainly must be drawn, it is the declining accuracy and relevance of polls.

    No. The declining accuracy of polls is not an historic inevitability. It is the direct result of the capture of polling organisations by the left.

    There were polling analysts who knew exactly what was going to happen on November 8, but the they were outside the leftist establishment and the MSM and were heard only on alternative media. Bill Mitchell’s analysis of the polling sample stacks was spot on.

    The biggest problem for pollsters, which they must tackle urgently if they want to stay in business, is that the leftist establishment has intimidated and bullied voters into concealing their voting intentions through the totalitarianisation of our institutions — the media, the bureaucracy and the new agencies operated by the thought police (e.g., the AHRC in Australia).

    I could produce accurate polls that overcome the problem simply by acknowledging it, but most pollsters can’t do that because they’re leftists and leftists lie about everything all the time, including lying to themselves.

    The only question that needs answering about the US election polls is: were they deliberately devised as DNC propaganda to hurt the Trump voter turnout? Or were the results a self-delusion by pollsters who where too stupid to ask the right question and were such dribbling idiots they thought they could get the right answers with D+10 sample stacks?

  32. Elizabeth (Lizzie) B.

    Well said re the polls, Tom.

    If you want accurate answers to intimate personal questions you must be prepared to frame them carefully and provide a proper sample in order for the results to be believable. It may even be too late for that now. People are scared of questioners and give the answers they think are needed because the retribution of the left is swift and hurts, often financially as well as socially. QUT students anyone?

    Russia before Glasnost gives something of the flavour.

    Voters trust people like Hanson because she is not scared of answering her way, honestly. Nor was Trump. Hillary came nowhere near a proper press conference and the MSM glossed her dutifully as The Chosen One.

    Someone above suggests Mal will cave on gay marriage and push it through. That this is even thought a possibility shows that people think Mal is taking no lesson whatsoever from the withdrawal of the green gay left from a plebiscite on the issue. If that won’t pass, then Mal won’t pass if he goes for any alternative.

    Voice of the people? It seems that only Pauline and Cory care.

  33. Elizabeth (Lizzie) B.

    MSM haven’t changed at all since the US election. Yahoo today is still offering its daily dose of trumped-up venom about Trump and his family.

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