Diets and Models

There is a new diet out there projected to lead to sustainable weight loss.

Your intrepid analyst here has developed a model that shows that eating half a litre of ice cream and half a pack of Tim-Tams every night will lead to solid and consistent weight loss.

Unlike other models quoted recently (inc Finkel, Gonski), the Spartacus model will disclose, up front, the key assumptions. The key assumptions being that for the purposes of the model, it is assumed that the caloric value of ice cream and Tim Tams in NIL and it is further assumed that ice cream and Tim Tams enhance human fat burning.

The model has been peer reviewed. Spartacus has some friends and peers (Crixus, Gannicus, Castus and Oenomaus) who have reviewed the model.  Their qualifications are that they are known to Spartacus and like ice cream and Tim Tams.  Fortunately these peers have accepted the underlying assumptions and have agreed with the models conclusions.

Spartacus’ next stop is to try to set up an ice cream and Tim Tam factory (hopefully Arnotts will give the licence). Given the clear public policy benefits of everyone eating ice cream and Tim Tams, the model clearly shows it, the Government must underwrite the factory.  The savings to the health budget will clearly be phenomenal.

In addition to public funding for the establishment of the Spartacus ice cream and Tim Tam factory, a case will be made for the CReS – the Caloric Reduction Scheme, whereby every kilo of ice cream and Tim Tams will produce a CReS certificate which then must be purchased by fresh produce producers under threat of imprisonment.

With the model on our side, hopefully, the government will mandate a 42% caloric reduction target ensuring that Australian diet include a minimum proportion of ice cream and Tim Tams.

You all know it makes sense. The modelling proves it.

There used to be lies, damned lies and statistics. There are now lies, damned lies, statistics and models.

Good thing Australian media and political class read carefully the inputs and outputs of the models they use to justify the policies foisted upon us.

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20 Responses to Diets and Models

  1. Bruce of Newcastle

    The point of models is they should be validated against real world data.

    Curiously if you take the finding that going to 42% renewables and only 3% gas you can see from the real world data that electricity prices rise. They don’t fall.

    Maybe Dr Finkel got a sign wrong in his computer code.

  2. RobK

    Are you sure one of your reviewers wasn’t Cactus? The diet you prescribe is well-known but as you say the use of veggies and other stuff really stacks on the blubber. Your real innovation is put incentives in place to control what people eat besides. Well done (like a scotch fillet).

  3. Sparkle Motion

    Modelling proves nothing.

    Whether it’s economic, environmental, engineering, all models do is either; a) generate a prediction or b) describe what’s happened historically. Usually a little bit of a) and b), with some snake oil, smoke and mirrors thrown in to promote confirmation bias. At best models are hypotheses/predictions waiting to be tested.

    Empiricism rules.

  4. Crossie

    There used to be lies, damned lies and statistics. There are now lies, damned lies, statistics and models.

    And just like with fashion models an awful lot of airbrushing and photoshopping goes on before publication.

  5. H B Bear

    Anyone know how Treasury’s global price on carbon is going?

  6. bollux

    You should use Twiggy as your model. Much more convincing than that scientific stuff.

  7. Elizabeth (Lizzie) Beare

    You have stolen my thunder. I have been promoting Tim-Tams for elevenses on the Cat for years.
    I want my share of this bonanza.
    There are always grifters and hangers on in this modelling game. 🙂

  8. De Fred Lenin

    Models are pure postulation,like the media “news” . If you feed in lies you get lies out

  9. Fat Tony

    Spartacus has some friends and peers (Crixus, Gannicus, Castus and Oenomaus) who have reviewed the model.

    You left out Onan – he always plays a big part in these models

  10. Zyconoclast

    If the ice cream is
    http://www.connoisseuricecream.com.au/

    And the Tim Tams are classic dark chocolate
    http://www.arnotts.com.au/products/tim-tam/

    I support this diet.

  11. Diogenes

    Heretic !

    Tim Tams are NOT the answer, my peer (my year 9 class – they agreed because writing reports 🙂 ) reviewed models say Mint Slice works even better

  12. De Fred Lenin

    Bruce , Camelot was a place where Kennedys lived wasnt it ? They done well for the so s of an Irish bootlegger gangster . Wonder if Joe did any modelling for the Presidents job for the lads ? Or was it just the Wise Guys he knew who owned the democrats ?

  13. Robber Baron

    I once write a paper that was mildly critical, yet accurate, of the Labor government and it was rejected for publication. The reviewer’s comments have been printed and put on my office wall to remind me of the bias in academia. I subsequently re-wrote the very same paper and wrote it in a way that it was mildly critical of the Liberal government, and to my surprise (not) it was accepted for publication. It is an A rated journal.

  14. Leo G

    With the model on our side, hopefully, the government will mandate a 42% caloric reduction target ensuring that Australian diet include a minimum proportion of ice cream and Tim Tams.

    They’re more likely to opt for a pi$$take reduction scheme and pricing emictions.

  15. Kneel

    Hi,

    I’m Al – Et Al.
    You will find I am a contributing author to thousands – if not millions – of papers in the peer reviewed lit-chur-chur. Just read the citations list, you’ll see I’m clearly listed as secondary author in all manner of fields. It’s truely astonishing the number of fields I am expert in.

    I heartily endorse your clearly desperately needed project. However, in order to ensure we really are doing the right thing here, I propose a 20 year double-blind study into the effects of such a diet – fully funded from govt research grants of course. I offer my services to assist you in such a study – for a nominal fee, naturally. Shall we say, $150,000 p.a., fully CPI indexed for the period of the study? Cheap at half the price, given my publication history!

    I look forward to working with you.

  16. Bruce of Newcastle

    Cousin of Ibid?

  17. Muddy

    Cousin of Ibid?

    Didn’t he have a sister Op Cit? She was a solid reference!

  18. Andrew

    This isn’t even a pisstake – this is exactly what happens in govt. They stopped even pretending around the time of the wombatophile.
    – Unemployment will go to 10% as a result of a banking crisis we’re not involved in, and a sovereign debt crisis during which we have no debt
    – A 40% (non-deductible) tax on mining will have no impact on investment as long as it has a hurdle of the 10-year bond rate of 2.2% (why not make it 99% tax then??)
    – The world’s biggest carbon tax will have no effect on jerbs and grothe…
    – …because the rest of the world will respond by introducing the World’s Equal Biggest Carbon Tax…
    – coupled with an ETS where countries like AUS with -80% abatement targets will be able to cheaply buy excess carbon credits from other countries that have bigly exceeded their abatement targets
    – the ETS will reduce power prices
    – the EIS will reduce power prices
    – Gonksi will improve educational outcomes
    – the ABC is the most loved and respected meeja brand in the country
    – Illary will win

  19. Elizabeth (Lizzie) Beare

    You’ll need me to come into this referencing stunt.
    My name is ‘Quoted In’. I can introduce a lot of heavies saying nice things to support this model.
    Umm, given the Tim Tams’ real effect, let’s scratch that heavies and call them influentials.
    My friend ‘Inter Alia’ is also useful if you wish to sound seriously serious.

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