Lies. Damned Lies. Statistics. ABC.

The ABC, also known as the media wing on of the Greens-ALP coalition, reported yesterday that Labor pounces on Scott Morrison’s negative gearing ‘lie’ after release of secret briefing documents.

According to the insightful analysis of the ABC:

The previously confidential advice to Treasurer Scott Morrison from his own department said the Opposition’s plan might cause “some downward pressure” and could have “a relatively modest downward impact” on prices.

Interesting.

Here is the actual document from which the ABC bases its reporting.  This is a single document of presumably many produced by the Treasury on its analysis of negative gearing and capital gains tax.  Perhaps 60% of the contents of this document has been redacted, but there is no place for doubt, modesty or uncertainty when the ABC is criticizing a Liberal National Government.

According to this Treasury advice, Labor’s proposed policy would generate $3.4 to $3.9 billion of additional tax revenue.  Or in Swan-speak, $3.4 to $3.9 billion of “saves”.  The Commonwealth collected approximately $370 billion (yes billion!) in tax revenue in 2015-2016, so this increase in tax (or Swanny-Saves) would equate to an approximately 1% increase in tax.  Not a drop in the ocean.

Changing circumstances are also no barrier to the ABC when criticising the government.  Treasury’s advice was from early 2016 and yet the state of the property market in early 2018 must be ignored so as to support the narrative.  But here is the rub.  According to Treasury’s advice, when it comes to existing residential investment property:

Overall, price changes are likely to be small, though the composition of ownership may shift away from domestic investors.

So, for a policy that was designed to improve housing affordability , what it actually is expected to achieve is a significant increase in tax revenue and an increase in foreign investors.

But that’s not the story for the ABC.

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21 Responses to Lies. Damned Lies. Statistics. ABC.

  1. Up The Workers!

    Good News!

    The A.L.P.’s 3AW has just announced that their globe-trotting hero, Dodgy Dan the C.F.M.E.U.’s Man in Victoriastan (currently jetting about the globe on holidays courtesy of the generosity of the peasantry of Mogadishu-by-the-Yarra) has just announced that in high-level discussions which he will be holding with the Indian Government next week, he intends to press them for the extradition to Mogadishu-by-the-Yarra, of Puneet Puneet, who ran over and killed a Victoriastani citizen, before fleeing back to India on a false borrowed Passport.

    Alternatively, if the Indian Government does NOT agree to the extradition, he might just toss his hire-car car keys to his missus, and go for some “pay-back” – though I’m not at all sure that her total A.L.P. exemption from breathalyser testing carries quite the same weight in India that it does in the notorious A.L.P. corruptocracy of Mogadishu-by-the-Yarra.

  2. Andre Lewis

    The negative impact on private rental costs is, of course, ignored.

  3. Michel Lasouris

    Interesting how a simple adjective totally alters the meaning of a sentence, and reveals the true agenda of the media concerned. Today the ABC reported on President Trump’s decision to rescind 200,ooo San Salvadorian temporary resident visas thus ” Today President Trump extended his tough policy on certain immigrants to the USA”; a clear intention to denigrate the policy for the enforcement of Temporary Visas granted to alleviate crises in the immigrant’s home country on the understanding that they will return once the situation ‘at home’ returns to normal. A quite reasonable and humane policy. The negative stance could have been tempered by describing the President’s action as “firm” and not “tough”

  4. Shy Ted

    Yeah, but the ABC didn’t make a New Year’ resolution to be honest, fair and impartial in it’ reporting so it doesn’t matter,

  5. Blair

    “might cause……and could have ”
    Powerful modelling.

  6. Norman Church

    The ALP’s policy on negative gearing was never about housing affordability – although, perversely, it will have a negative effect on renters. It was sold on this basis in a rather obvious attempt to exploit widespread concerns about property prices in Sydney and Melbourne. Obvious to all but the usual suspects at the ABC, Fairfax and Das Projekt, of course.

    When the policy was announced, I thought that the PM was foolish to claim that the ALP’s policies would crush housing prices because this was music to the ears of those looking for an easy answer to a complex problem and wishing to scape-goat ‘evil’ property investors. To be blunt, there was a sizeable section of the public who would have been delighted to see a collapse in property prices.

    The position may well be different now. However, the government really does need to work on its messaging. I would have thought that the Libs ought to be hammering points along the lines that the ALP’s policy is simply another disguised tax grab for a mob addicted to spending that will raise little revenue, hurt renters and is too risky in the current property market.

    Not sure that Minster Dwyer is up to the task. Then again, who is in the current government?

  7. Dr Faustus

    Yesterday the ABC was bragging about how it wrested the limp, redacted pamphlet from the hands of the Treasury Manadarins.

    Treasury public servants wanted negative gearing documents kept secret from ABC

    Senior bureaucrats threatened to stop giving honest advice to the Federal Treasurer if negative gearing documents were not kept secret from the ABC.

    Two things spring to mind:

    Firstly the fuckers threatening to “stop giving honest advice” need to be rounded up and sacked.
    It is what you are paid for, you appalling parasites.

    Secondly, it is incredible that the sloppy, superficial and passive aggressive document should actually be considered as “honest advice”.

    Essentially, the evidence-free Treasury argument runs that investors will simply take their hot money out of negatively geared property and put it into an upgraded principal place of residence, because tax free. On aggregate therefore, the decline in investment property values will be offset by the demand-driven increase in PPR property values – and don’t you worry about stamp duty and transaction costs. Apparently.

    Easy to see why Treasury officials would be embarrassed by this twaddle.

  8. stackja

    ABC Marx its copybook.

  9. Norman Church

    Dr Faustus #2605324, posted on January 9, 2018 at 12:03 pm

    Good points.

    Highlights two major problems with Australia’s government in recent years that have been troubling me greatly. First, our elected representatives allowing Treasury officials to dictate the economic and regulatory direction of the country. Secondly, Treasury officials pushing a dirigiste and high taxing model at every opportunity.

  10. struth

    We know what the ABC is.
    The fact that we have a Liberal party in that supports it, is our big problem.

  11. Baldrick

    Of course TheirABC are against any capital making enterprise by individuals. It should all be controlled by government and handed out pork-barrel style to compliant organisations who can run collective housing projects to accommodate a socialist compliant public.

  12. Sydney Boy

    Exactly the same story with the same conclusion in the Fairfax rags.

  13. a happy little debunker

    The same claims were made in the Guardian – when I pointed out that obviousness, it was suggested that I was cherry picking!

  14. Rabz

    This ridiculous report was what I was referring to yesterday when I noted that Albansleazey had made an idiot of himself (again).

    Labor’s tax grab will produce miniscule revenue, it will shaft renters and it will not lead to significant reductions in real estate values.

    I expect labor and the likes of Albansleazey to be too stupid to realise this, but it cettainly didn’t stop the Waffleroach falling over himself (again) to demonstrate that he has all the political smarts of a tree stump.

    Everyone noted above involved in this sorry charade is beneath contempt.

  15. I am Spartacus

    Rabz,

    Is not the Hon. Albo your local member? Come on. A bit of solidarity. Or solidarity forever.

  16. Crossie

    Of course TheirABC are against any capital making enterprise by individuals. It should all be controlled by government and handed out pork-barrel style to compliant organisations who can run collective housing projects to accommodate a socialist compliant public.

    Just like the ABC itself which is why the denizens of that den of iniquity cannot see anything wrong with the setup.

  17. Crossie

    struth
    #2605502, posted on January 9, 2018 at 2:21 pm
    We know what the ABC is.
    The fact that we have a Liberal party in that supports it, is our big problem.

    Yep.

  18. John Constantine

    The effect of their shorten crime family ramping up the population Ponzi scheme by airlifting in mass voteherds to demand housing is never mentioned by their abc.

    Silence, Comrades.

  19. JohnA

    John Constantine #2606068, posted on January 10, 2018, at 7:56 am

    The effect of their shorten crime family ramping up the population Ponzi scheme by airlifting in mass voteherds to demand housing is never mentioned by their abc.

    Silence, Comrades.

    Not to mention the impact of the so-called “GFC” of 2008 and the mad Keynseian response – asset inflation followed as sure as day follows night.

  20. EvilElvis

    One, when has treasury projected anything correctly? Ram it home that they are just a tax hoovering pack of scum who can’t get that right let alone forecast their own stupidity.
    Two, the ALP couldn’t give a tuppence fuck about rental prices, they need to collapse the negative gearing benefits so that rents do rise then they can push their actual end game of enforced rent control, comrades. It’s about control.

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