This post follows on from my recent one titled “Not much change in 130 years” and analyses Sydney max/min temperatures from 1859 to 2017 in blocks of 10 years. The data is from the BoM website.
The method is the same as before. For each 10 year block I find the maximum and minimum temperatures for the period and count the number of days above 38 degrees C as a measure of “hot” days. The Sydney data is from one source, The Sydney Observatory, and seems to be continuous for the 160 or so years of record.
The table and chart below shows the results of the analysis which, to put it bluntly, shows that nothing has changed much. I need to come clean and mention that there are 3 “outliers” in the Tmax record that I have not shown on the chart but can be seen in “Outliers” opposite the yellow highlights. These are the 3 hottest days in the record and vary from the “next highest” by 3 to 4 degrees, (see T diff column). Remember that these represent only 3 days in a record of nearly 55,000 days. The total of the “hottest” days represent 0.26% of the record and it is interesting to note that there are times when they number 19 in a 10 year period, (1939 to 1948) while the number in recent times is 11, (1999 to 2008 and 2009 to 2017). Other periods from years ago show more; 15 in 1919 to 1928 and 18 in 1979 to 1988.
In earlier posts I mentioned Dr Darko Butina who has a website called www.l4patterns.com which contains a very interesting discussion about the atmosphere being a heterogeneous mixture of gasses and therefore it is impossible to find a constant temperature anywhere let alone fool ourselves into thinking that “average temperatures” have any meaning at all. If you look on his homepage there is a section called “Reports” and the article is titled “Why everything is local and nothing is global”.
I note comments on my other recent posts where the “quality” of BoM data is questioned and I am aware of the various articles pointing this out. Perhaps one day we might get a bit of integrity into the debate but it seems unlikely given the attachment our politicians and their “scientific” advisors have to the “climate change” hysteria.
What I am attempting to show is that there is little change over time except for the chaotic ups and downs that are part of the “weather/climate”. Rather than look at statistically corrupt and scientifically invalid averages it is better to recognise that we all live within a range of temperatures that vary a bit in a random way but which seem to stay within a certain range. In the case above that range is of the order of 30 degrees C. For Adelaide, the subject of my previous post, the range is around 38 to 40 degrees C and we still survive.
I expect 2017 will soon be proclaimed the “hottest year ever” by a wafer thin margin of hundredths of a degree but I think we need to treat any such claims as bullshit.