Charles Jacobs: Tax cuts on the nose: Millennials

As the tax cuts were passed in Parliament, new CIS research suggests that they may not have the backing of one of Australia’s largest group of voters. Indeed, in new polling we have commissioned from You Gov Galaxy, it appears that Millennials – now one third of the electorate – might not believe that income tax cuts are the best idea.

While also revealing that 58% of Millennials have a favourable view of socialism, the polls showed that 59% of the generation backed more government intervention in the economy. Another 56% were of the opinion that, allowing for inflation, Australia spends less on health and education than 10 years ago – a view that is indisputably incorrect.

These findings form part a greater narrative that has emerged over the last 20 years, as issues like house prices and low wage growth drive young voters towards the belief that more government is the answer.

Since the late 1990s, when Millennials first became politically active, Australian voters’ support for increased government spending has surged.

In 1996 only 18% of the overall electorate believed the government should be spending more on social services. By 2016, the first election where all Millennials were of voting age, 55% of voters favoured an increase in spending. The correlation between the rising number of Millennial voters and the growing support for big government is uncanny.

Conversely, the percentage of voters favouring less tax has plummeted. From an all-time high of 66% in the late 1980s, the numbers backing a cut in tax fell to just 36% at the 2016 Federal election. This trend was re-enforced in May, when only 37% of voters in an Ipsos poll backed Treasurer Scott Morrison’s proposed cuts. Nearly 60% thought the government should be using revenue to pay off debt.

The existence of this sentiment amongst such a large percentage of voters could leave a murky future ahead for future tax reform. Big government and a reduction in income tax are simply incompatible. With a significant number of voters leaning towards the former, it is not a surprise that the government has found it difficult to build support for the latter.

Charles Jacobs is a policy analyst at the Centre for Independent Studies Originally published at [email protected].

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33 Responses to Charles Jacobs: Tax cuts on the nose: Millennials

  1. Ƶĩppʯ (ȊꞪꞨV)

    Long march paying dividends.

  2. Nicholas (Unlicensed Joker) Gray

    Give the millenials a holiday in Cuba or North Korea, or China! For some of them, make it a one-way ticket!

  3. .

    Believe it when you see millennials not practising tax avoision!

  4. max

    Government/State
    that is our new God, that is what they teaching in the schools today.

    Government needs to do something about…:
    I wish some one would offer a prize for a good, simple, and intelligent definition of the word “Government.”
    What an immense service it would confer on society !
    The Government! what is it? where is it? what does it do? what ought it to do? All we know is, that it is a mysterious personage; and, assuredly, it is the most solicited, the most tormented, the most overwhelmed, the most admired, the most accused, the most invoked, and the most provoked of any personage in the world.
    I have not the pleasure of knowing my reader but I would stake ten to one that for six months he has been making Utopias, and if so, that he is looking to Government for the realization of them.
    And should the reader happen to be a lady: I have no doubt that she is sincerely desirous of seeing all the evils of suffering humanity remedied, and that she thinks this might easily be done, if Government would only undertake it.
    But, alas! that poor unfortunate personage, like Figaro, knows not to whom to listen, nor where to turn. The hundred thousand mouths of the press and of the platform cry out all at once —
    http://bastiat.org/en/government.html

  5. Leo G

    Since the late 1990s, when Millennials first became politically active, Australian voters’ support for increased government spending has surged.

    Their view about tax cuts should change as they become the age group with the highest incomes. They want higher spending on their group now while other groups are the net taxpayers.

  6. Bruce of Newcastle

    Millenials don’t earn much money. So they don’t pay tax. Therefore tax cuts mean nothing to them. At the same time because they have little money the envy gene is strong in them.

    By contrast millenials disproportionately use public services like public transport, so they like money going to such things.

    Self interest speaks.

    When they get a job and have to do their first real income tax return the shock to their psyche will be quite painful.

  7. manalive

    What’s a millennial?

  8. Ƶĩppʯ (ȊꞪꞨV)

    When they get a job and have to do their first real income tax return the shock to their psyche will be quite painful.

    I remember when one of our millennial got a pay rise that pushed him into the top brackets, came back to ask where his pay rise was. He was told the government took half. You could see the cogs ticking over, not happy jan.

  9. iainrussell

    Zipster, I have often, when in vacant or in pensive mood, given a fiver to a beggar on the mean streets of both Canberra and Sydney saying ‘Here’s a tenner cob, get something to eat’. The abusive reply about the discrepancy is always met with ‘Complain to the Gumment, they’ve got other five’.

  10. Habib

    Seeing as every other part of their pointless lives involves emulating the more retarded affectations of the ’60s and ’70s* (and paying over a ton for a cup of joe made from beans that’ve come out of a cat’s arse), why wouldn’t they also absorb the idiotic failure that was politics in that era?

    I’m for emphasising the beat in beatnik, and stop the nik.

    *Got one in the office I’m currently filling in time, straight out of central casting. Beard like a gay bushranger, 45 minutes to make a coffee in a thimble, and a ’75 hunwagon with whitewall tyres that has to be towed at least once a week. Oddly enough he’s from Melbourne.

  11. Paridell

    I’ll take the holiday in China.
    Shanghai, Dalian, Xi’an and Kunming (the City of Eternal Spring) will do nicely.

  12. tgs

    .
    #2744310, posted on June 22, 2018 at 1:29 pm
    Believe it when you see millennials not practising tax avoision!

    Agree.

    Declared vs revealed preferences.

  13. tgs

    Bruce of Newcastle
    #2744331, posted on June 22, 2018 at 1:44 pm
    Millenials don’t earn much money. So they don’t pay tax. Therefore tax cuts mean nothing to them. At the same time because they have little money the envy gene is strong in them.

    By contrast millenials disproportionately use public services like public transport, so they like money going to such things.

    Self interest speaks.

    Also a solid explanation.

  14. OneWorldGovernment

    With all due respect to the commenters here and notwithstanding the CIS studies I’d like to propose another interpretation of where ‘millenials’ may be coming from and it is based on the reflection that Australia is a Fascist Socialist country and has been governed as such for a long time.

    If I grew up as a millennial and looked at the triumvirate of crony Big Government, Big Unions and Big Crony Companies and their outrageous excesses and flaunting of the law I would respond by saying fuck you jack give me shit as well.

    Australia is controlled by carpetbaggers and the people understand how despicable they are.

    And the crap chokes off all initiative.

    Fuck the ALP.

    But there is a special place in hell where the scum faced so called Liberal Party of Australia will burn.

  15. Herodotus

    So a large percentage of millenials are in favour of continuing to run the country into a death spiral of indebtedness.

  16. .

    Herodotus
    #2744402, posted on June 22, 2018 at 3:01 pm
    So a large percentage of millenials are in favour of continuing to run the country into a death spiral of indebtedness.

    As are baby boomers, Gen X…etc.

    You won’t see millennials preach to unwilling victims about how bloody great Gough was.

  17. Slim Cognito

    Not a coincidence that the numbers of people leaving the country is on the up. Even the ABC are starting to see this.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-06-22/residents-abandoning-australia-at-record-levels-abs-figures-show/9895526

    I assume that it’s people with money (and therefore choices) who are departing before third world sh*thole status really sets in and the option to leave disappears. A few on here have already expressed the desire to do so.

  18. .

    I’m one of them. I’d put up with learning a foreign language if necessary. Unfortunately, you need Fuck You money before you can Fuck Off!

  19. jupes

    While also revealing that 58% of Millennials have a favourable view of socialism, the polls showed that 59% of the generation backed more government intervention in the economy.

    How does that make them any different to the majority of baby boomers or any other generation running around at the minute?

    Well over half of those dickheads vote for socialists in one party or another.

    Conversely, the percentage of voters favouring less tax has plummeted. From an all-time high of 66% in the late 1980s, the numbers backing a cut in tax fell to just 36% at the 2016 Federal election. This trend was re-enforced in May, when only 37% of voters in an Ipsos poll backed Treasurer Scott Morrison’s proposed cuts.

    Fuck. Me. Dead. Are we living in the stupidest age or what? Actually I suspect that the question is more specific than just ‘tax cuts’. They don’t support tax cuts for other people. Of course if they do pay tax, then they are a bit more amenable to tax cuts for themselves.

    Just a theory.

  20. Dr Faustus

    It seems as a society we are working our way through the hoary old adage:

    The first generation earns it; the second generation spends it; and the third generation blows it.

    Perhaps better paraphrased as: whatever it is, when it comes to you easy, and nobody remembers what it took to earn it, it has limited value.

    Unfortunately Millenials appear to apply the same philosophy to democracy as they do to government spending. The 2018 Lowy Institute Poll tells us that only 49% of the Australian 18 to 29 year-old cohort thinks ‘democracy is preferable to any other kind of government’.

    A series of ‘teachable moments’ is being stored up.
    But, c’est la vie.

  21. .

    You’re assuming they even know what “other forms of government” are.

    History is taught very poorly at school. Who knows, they might have also been frog avatar waving memers demanding an autocratic, reactionary ruler such as a God-Emperor.

    The alt-right is largely a “yoof” movement.

  22. Anthony Park

    Nearly 60% thought the government should be using revenue to pay off debt.

    Which doesn’t sound entirely unreasonable. We can’t exclude the possibility that these people will want tax cuts after debt has been retired.

  23. .

    Like I said on an earlier, similar post:

    Gen Y and millennials have been screwed on the labour market. They’re not socialist, they want to work, but they want an income and don’t want to live in the basement.

    They want theirs, they don’t care about embarrassing crap like protesting for the Green Left Weekly.

  24. OneWorldGovernment

    I’m not sure that anyone can quantify the sheer waste of money by Big Union, Big Companies and Big Government.

  25. OneWorldGovernment

    Ordinary people know they are being screwed.

    Nothing to do whether you are millennial or not.

  26. JohnL

    Hard times breed strong men, strong men breed good times, good times breed week men, week men breed hard times, hard times breed strong men, strong men breed good times, good times breed…………………..times.

  27. Dr Faustus

    You’re assuming they even know what “other forms of government” are.

    I’m certainly not; because I know that history is taught very poorly at school. My comment about a back-up of ‘teachable moments’ was not facetious.

  28. .

    Damn, now I’m the facetious one.

  29. OneWorldGovernment

    JohnL
    #2744472, posted on June 22, 2018 at 4:04 pm

    Hard times breed strong men, strong men breed good times, good times breed week men, week men breed hard times, hard times breed strong men, strong men breed good times, good times breed…………………..times.

    and the pawns, millennials, say fuck you.

    I think the saga goes warlords, useless deceptive so called peace makers with their attendant communist hangers on and then you have the killers who get pissed off with the previous.

  30. JohnL

    History is taught very poorly at school.

    Wrong! Everything is taught very poorly at school today. Today, kids at school are taught what to think not how to think. The most “cool”, “sexy” and exciting knowledge today is IT knowledge, “computer” knowledge. However, the most successful in that field are those who are self-taught most of them as kids.
    As Mark Twain said:
    Don’t let the schooling interfere with your education!

  31. Tekweni

    I wouldn’t put down all the millenials. My 3 are 33, 31 and 29. They are absolute capitalists who know the value of a dollar and are bent on accumulating as many as possible. The two sons, both engineers, have done FIFO, worked all their uni holidays and have no time for spongers. All joined Bernadi’s party. Even my daughter who is a teacher.
    Their friends who come around with them, are all the same. Productive hard workers. But they all know how to rort the system. Most of them got student allowances because of the stupid rule that said if you earned a certain amount over a year you can get the allowance. I think that’s been dropped now but it was a complete and utter rort. They all knew it but it was there so they worked the system. Not stupid!

  32. Dr Faustus

    Damn, now I’m the facetious one.

    Missed it by that much

  33. Tel

    The most “cool”, “sexy” and exciting knowledge today is IT knowledge, “computer” knowledge. However, the most successful in that field are those who are self-taught most of them as kids.

    If you want to learn IT there are just so many ways to learn it from either free resources on the Internet (if you are macho and independent) or low cost courses all over the place if you benefit from a little bit of hand holding. Your local school teacher is probably the least qualified to teach you anything.

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