Reality check on “Wind and other” energy

Interesting numbers on the National Electricity Market Data Dashboard.

A couple of hours ago Wind and other were generating 270 to cater for a demand of 21,000. Of course it changes all the time and a few minutes ago with the sun shining in NSW it is up to 474 catering for a demand of 26,000.

Say we double or triple the supply of Wind and other, or even increase it by a factor of 10. What difference does it make?

This entry was posted in Global warming and climate change policy, Rafe. Bookmark the permalink.

26 Responses to Reality check on “Wind and other” energy

  1. Genghis

    Rafe,
    Zipp, nothing etc etc. Last 13 days of April 2018 according to NEM figures wind farm output was less than 10% of capacity for 25% of the time. Many days in April and June similar but not for as long a period. Since yesterday midday Wind Farms have produced at <10% for the first 9 hours and about 10% for the rest of the time with a maximum output of 12%. It is all total garbage.
    This is terrible and I think NEM should stop reporting any Wind Farm data below 30% so not to disturb the Progressives.

  2. Genghis

    Rafe,
    Just went through the last 8 days of Wind Farm Performance. On 20th June was the last day that Wind Farms in NEM operated above name plate capacity (ie) above 30% of capacity. Why can’t Australians wake up to this stupidity.

  3. Singleton Engineer

    Capacity factor beats nameplate rating every time, but the acolytes, including journalists/plagiarists continue to ignore the fact that nearly all of the notional capacity of wind turbines is absent when needed. Solar ditto – nothing at all for morning peaks, especially during winter months.

    Yet Germany continues to dismantle nuclear, fail with solar and wind and hang their hopes on (Russian) gas.

    All of which, it seems to me, describes a road to certain mission failure, well before the last German nuke is turned off within 5 years. All this while Germany’s Greens resort to stunts and vandalism instead of rational consideration. See: https://apnews.com/dd22e53177c8402c8320a49d86eb4f60/German-experts-meet-to-discuss-country's-exit-from-coal-use

    The coming 3 or 4 years will be very interesting, especially if the relationship between Germany/EU and Russia falters or a pipeline or two encounter technical difficulties. Where are the risk managers when they are needed?

  4. Roger

    Say we double or triple the supply of Wind and other, or even increase it by a factor of 10. What difference does it make?

    Do you mean to reality or to climate alarmists?

    The two are quite different.

  5. Habib

    What difference does it make? Price per Kw/h rises accordingly.

  6. Alexi the Conservative Russian

    Obviously not seen by our stupid poles

  7. Alexi the Conservative Russian

    pollies – hate spell checker

  8. It increases the ‘Feels’. That’s all that’s important to the Greens.

  9. Up The Workers!

    Maybe the A.L.P./Brown Movement Einsteins and mung-beaners can legislate to make the wind blow harder and the sun shine stronger?

    That should fix it!

  10. Habib

    And risk of brown/blackouts rise in parallel.

  11. teddy bear

    It makes no difference regardless because you can’t stop and start the efficient baseload power generators quickly enough to handle the whims of renewables, you are stuck using either diesel generators or jet engines which eliminates any claimed reduction in emissions, and probably creates significantly more than without them.

    Would be interesting to find out just how much fuel and stored power is wasted trying to manage the renewables by stopping and starting generators etc. Of course we will probably never know…

  12. RobK

    There will always need to be more redundency designed into RE; for both the prime movers(sun, wind and gas backup) and the storage capacity (typically gas turbines dont have very large storage). Coal and nukes have their fuel stored well in advance, on site and available on demand.
    Trying to harvest low energy density and concentrating it to store at slightly higher density for an amount of time will always mean you need a relatively very large generating and storage infrastructure compared to the high energy density nature has stored for us in the form of coal and nukes.
    Given the low capacity factors of RE and the need to recharge storage whilst suppling baseload demand with a source which is random and chaotic on all time scales, means you need to have an installed RE generating capacity with a power rating in the order of ten times that of conventional baseload (which has inherent storage and power conditioning on demand).
    There is no way that current technology can deliver robust, reliable, cheap energy without coal or nukes.
    To me, the best policy is no subsidies. Let a diversity of energy sources compete. Each has their strengths.

  13. mareeS

    Some excellent reading on the Cat today, especially a great piece on Marx, Robespierre, Hitler and the various other manifestations of totalitarianism.

    Meanwhile, the breeze isn’t blowing again today here on the coast, a full 9-hatch coal ship is leaving port loaded to the gunnels, and an empty one is coming in, followed by a fuel tanker with another two weeks of petrol, diesel and avgas to keep our transport running.

    CC believers sure are mugs.

  14. OldOzzie

    Again I refer to Jo Nova’s Post

    The Australian magical NEG target which turns black coal to white elephants

    Australia is figuring out how to change the global climate and power up the nation. It’s the old “have cake: eat cake: sell cake and build a sea-wall with cake” dilemma. The PM, Malcolm Turnbull, has come up with a plan called the National Energy Guarantee (NEG), which will manage to hurt the environment, jobs and industry at the same time.

    Who benefits? Gas companies, Renewables Co. Who loses? Everyone else.

    Guest Post by Tom Quirk
    NEG – The white elephant in the room

    When the King of Siam wished to rid himself of a troublesome courtier, he would send a white elephant as a first sign of oncoming ruin. Our federal government has served up a troublesome elephant of a plan, the NEG that might ruin our country.

    The information used in this analysis is sourced from the Department of the Environment and Energy, Australian Energy Statistics, and gives the sources of electricity generation for the calendar year 2017. The generation plant data comes from the AEMO.

    as well as

    Old neglected wind turbines — ticking 100 ton bombs
    Don’t camp under an old wind turbine

    What weighs 100 tons, sits 100 meters above the ground, leaks transmission fluid and may disintegrate into a million sharp fibreglass spikes…
    Wind Turbine failure, photo.

    ….

  15. egg_

    As much of Germany’s nearly 30,000 strong fleet of wind turbines approach 20 or more years in age, the list of catastrophic collapses is growing more rapidly. The turbines are now being viewed by technical experts as “ticking time bombs”.

    Shows how much went into the lifecycle considerations.

  16. Bruce of Newcastle

    Say we double or triple the supply of Wind and other, or even increase it by a factor of 10. What difference does it make?

    About 1 million more dead birds and bats. Per year. Otherwise not much.

  17. Rohan

    Shows how much went into the lifecycle considerations.

    Evidently very little Egg. But the vibe; that was examined at length and got big thumbs up on social media, so all projects are approved.

    #youknowitmakessense

  18. Dr Faustus

    Would be interesting to find out just how much fuel and stored power is wasted trying to manage the renewables by stopping and starting generators etc. Of course we will probably never know…

    From a hot start, open cycle gas turbines can be brought up to operating temperature and synchronised with the grid in ~5 to 10 minutes, during which time they use less fuel because they are not on load. The proportion of ‘wasted’ energy will therefore depend on the on-load run time.

    In the 30% to 50% renewable future, when the fleet of OCGT’s is running up multiple times per day, load following because there is no coal-fired spinning reserve, this will become significant. As will increased maintenance to turbine and generator.

    Just another inconvenient detail.

  19. Dr Fred Lenin

    Like the word “brownout” non racist instead of blackout Indians don’t take offence like blacks and semi indigenius . I suppose it’s named after that old commo poofter brown the tasweenian .
    Windmills should be erected in all inner suburbs then to mains power switched off entirely ,live the dream comrades ,forward into the 1880s with our beloved leaders side by side,back to back we will confront a glorious future face to face . ( sewage and water need electricity too don’t they?”

  20. egg_

    Shows how much went into the lifecycle considerations.

    Evidently very little Egg. But the vibe; that was examined at length and got big thumbs up on social media, so all projects are approved.

    #youknowitmakessense

    “Don’t say that he’s hypocritical
    Say rather that he’s apolitical
    “Once the rockets windmills are up, who cares where they come down?
    That’s not my department!” says Wernher von Braun”

  21. Dr Fred Lenin

    When you think about it these windmills must be subject to metal fatigue like aircraft are ,it’s logical they must wibrate as the fan turns and being in exposed places subject to wind stress making them vibrate even when locked ,rumour has it that the carpetbaggers who own them use cheap steel to maximise profit ,thus making the potential problem greater . Abolish the lot and make the carpetbaggers pay for removal and complete restoration of sites to pristine condition .
    That’ll Larn em !

  22. RobK

    ( sewage and water need electricity too don’t they?”
    …..reticulation along with illumination, ventilation, refrigeration, communication etc.

  23. Geoff

    Hey what did South Australians use to read by before candles? Electricity.

  24. H B Bear

    In the 30% to 50% renewable future, when the fleet of OCGT’s is running up multiple times per day, load following because there is no coal-fired spinning reserve, this will become significant. As will increased maintenance to turbine and generator.

    Not to mention that open cycle gas turbines are the least efficient of the gas generators. Vast amounts of energy are just blasted up the chimney.

  25. JohnA

    Followed by this headline in today’s The Australian news feed from news.com.au

    Savings in SA interconnector by Michael Owen

    An interconnector with NSW would allow SA to ­import additional baseload power while exporting surplus renewable generation, a report has found.

    LOL!! That is making a ‘uge assumption about the existence of “surplus renewable” energy!!

  26. egg_

    An interconnector with NSW would allow SA to ­import additional baseload power while exporting surplus renewable generation, a report has found.

    What a crock.

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