An article in “The Australian” (July 2 2018), reported on power price rises due to “gaming the system”.
Earlier this year I did an analysis of SA wholesale prices for January 2018 to look at price changes on 3 of the hot days using data from AEMO Price and Demand reports. If anyone has doubts about the horrendous “market” we have or the possibility that generators might “game the system” this might give some insight.
Each day was over 40 degrees and the details for each day are in the table below. The colours refer to the chart lines for each day. The number in parenthesis in the “average $/MWh” column shows the multiplier based on the average price on 6 January.
|Date||Max Temp||Daily wholesale cost||Max price $/MWh||Average $/MWh over the day||Total MWh consumed|
|6 Jan||43||$ 3,047,470.00||$ 113.69||$ 78.58 (1)||38,784|
|18 Jan||43||$ 67,965,999.00||$ 14,166.50||$ 1,404.45 (18)||48,393|
|19 Jan||44||$ 59,969,400.00||$ 13,408.28||$ 1,195.28 (15)||50,172|
The chart below shows load and price/MWh over the course of the day. The AEMO data is given in 30 minute intervals so the X axis shows forty eight 30 minute intervals from midnight to midnight. The load lines are in the lower part of the chart and are reasonably similar in shape although their peaks vary a bit.
The price/MWh for 6 January follows the X axis as the scale of prices is such that it barely makes it above the axis. The price/MWh for both 18 and 19 January do so until the afternoon “peak” hits when they go through the roof.
On 18 January the afternoon “peak” from 3 p.m. to 7.30 p.m. cost $63,343,640.00, ($4,723.00/MWh), which is 93% of the total daily cost. On 19 January the “peak” from 2.30 p.m. to 7.30 p.m. cost $53,103,892.00, ($3,772.00/MWh), or 88% of the total daily cost.
Wind power went AWOL due to a large high pressure system, a frequent occurrence in summer, and the system was on the edge. As you can see, the generators made a meal of it and the suckers paid the bill.
If the Port Augusta power station had not been sacrificed on the altar of climate change it would have been able to provide the shortfall from wind power and removed the opportunity for generators to wait until the last minute and then rape and pillage at will.
I wonder why, if it is a “national market”, prices vary so much from state to state.(Numbers at base of chart show % comparisons against the Q1 “average” over total supply and cost.