The cost of the Paris agreement

Jo Nova has flagged an important paper from the IPA on the cost to Australian people of the failing Paris accord. Actually it looks like a serious underestimate. What about the cost of the collapse of the grid for a day or three? And the deindustrialisation? What does it cost the family when the breadwinner loses his/her job? A bit more than $8K.

I would have guessed that it would cost something like that just to put in place the RE infrastructure that is required to put up the prices and collapse the grid. But then I don’t have a beer coaster or a paper napkin handy to do the calculation. With a word on the political impasse in the Liberal party room.

The biggest obvious and easy win for conservatives in 2019 is to copy Abbott-Trump-Dean proven successes, axe the tax, Get Out of Paris, and run an Electro-Scary-Bill campaign. Turnbull can’t do that because he can’t criticize Labor for a plan he wants to do himself. He can’t call it witchdoctor science, can’t mock them for being tools for the Renewables Industry, can’t ridicule their plan to stop floods with solar panels. Can’t vow to limit renewables damage on electricity bills. Turnbull also can’t brag about his glorious successes either — two previous governments tried their damnedest to bring in an emissions trading scheme and paid for it.

Don’t miss the comment from RobK. I didn’t want to overload this post and I would like to do another on missing data, like the cost of putting in place the arrays of panels and turbines and the hundreds of miles of poles and wires and all the other stuff required to re-tool the grid that was built to carry a steady flow of power from a modest number of sites into an incredibly expensive and fragile network connecting intermittent sources across the nation. Nice work for the CFMEU but.

cohenite in comments has some informed but still speculative thoughts along those lines.

People often overlook the incompatibility of renewable power (!) and the grid which is an amazing piece of tech providing AC current at 50Hz. Wind and solar don’t provide grid compatible power and are located in far-flung locations. The cost of making them grid compatible must be enormous but I have not been able to find a cost for it. We know that wind and solar cost about $500 million per 100MW to install but I reckon making them grid compatible must almost be the same. Which would mean Australia has invested (taxpayer subsidies at about 70%) over $100 billion on things which don’t work for 75% of the time.

Other great great comments, esp Delta, md and Bruce. Md is a stunner on the value of not using the grass for grazing on a cattle run. Like the story I overheard on a light plane between Phoenix and Flagstaff, someone was talking about a man who bought a cheap tract of desert and obtained regular payments for not farming it.

UPDATE. How come James Paterson and Tim Wilson supported the NEG in the backbench committee?

WINDWATCH: 7am 9% of 26GW.
9am 14% of 24MGW.
12.30 14% of 20GW SA producing in excess of demand and driving unsubsidised providers to the wall.

This entry was posted in Global warming and climate change policy, Rafe. Bookmark the permalink.

58 Responses to The cost of the Paris agreement

  1. BoyfromTottenham

    Sounds like commonsense to me. I wish we saw more of it.

  2. Ellen of Tasmania

    Turnbull can’t do that because he can’t criticize Labor for a plan he wants to do himself

    As many of us noted after the last election – Turnbull now has all the support in parliament he needs to pass all the plans he wants.

    The most stunning fact in all this is the continued support the LINOs still get from so-called conservatives.

  3. RobK

    My comment on Jo’s site for what it’s worth:

    RobK

    August 14, 2018 at 7:43 am · Reply

    Ive read Damien Wild’s report. It is on the right track. He notes (as does Jo’s intro) that no allowence is made for the loss of economic advantage Australia had before 2007 when electricity prices were amongst the lowest in the world.
    Most of the modelling i have read gives little or no cost to redesign of the grid itself which will be an increasing burden as the penetration of RE increases.
    I note that as the NEM extends halfway around the country and pro-RE modelling relies on wiring electricity throughout to maximize the hopeful delusion that the wind is always blowing somewhere and the sun shines longer when the spread of the grid is maximized east-west. It will need major beefing up. Added to this are yet to be addressed technical issues of how to facilitate a grid with random wildly surging flows and vast distances, along with increased load to recharge storage like pumped hydro in the required short order. Issues with things such as fault current discrimination and ground current issues are likely to present as increasingly intractable problems. As will ancillory services of frequency FCAS. There may be issues with synthetic inertia if batteries become significant. There are so many expensive headaches to resolve with this giant experiment that I’m sure the economic modellers have missed because the engineers whilst warning of the dangers (Finkel made passing reference and suggested extra boards to keep a eye on things), the real costs will only be known as the issues arise and need rectification. There are so many hidden costs, this RE experiment is a bad idea. Some coal power and some nuclear in remote places would see us back on track to limit the wasteful path we are on now.

    10

    #

    RobK

    August 14, 2018 at 8:05 am · Reply

    I should add the hidden costs of: smart metering to facilitate domestic and commercial demand management and load shedding. Extra instrumentation and controls to enable high penetration of distributed supply such as domestic and commercial PV. It gets worse the more there is of it.

  4. Crossie

    With a word on the political impasse in the Liberal party room.

    Liberal party room = Titanic
    Liberal MPs = The orchestra playing on the deck as the ship pitches into the depths.

  5. min

    What does Turnbull ‘s son do ? I thought it was something to do with renewables .

  6. Bruce of Newcastle

    For the first seven months of this year the global temperature anomaly (+0.23 C average) has been lower than the same period of 2002 (+0.26 C average). That was 16 years ago.

    In that time pCO2 has risen 10% for no real world effect.

    So if the global temperature is flat or falling, how is cutting Australian emissions by 26% going to do anything except rape the country?

    The vast numbers of poor pensioners who will suffer anxiety and real harm, because they cannot afford to put the heating on in winter or the air conditioning in summer, will be an indictment of any politician who votes for this evil action.

  7. md

    Something worth remembering. An extract:

    A bloke bought a sheep property of half a million acres in western Queensland for $2.0 million. Instead of running sheep on it, he now gets $350,000 per annum under the federal government’s Direct Action scheme for not using the grass on his property. The idea being that the grass locks up carbon and reduces Australia’s carbon emissions. A neighbouring property gets $600,000 per annum. Direct Action is a $1.7 billion per annum program funded from general taxation revenue.

  8. Delta

    You mean 9% of 26GW. Still much the same at 8.15.

  9. Turnbull plans to retire from politics immediately after the next federal election. He has achieved the two objectives that he believes will be his legacy – the passing of deviant marriage bill and the NEG. People accuse him of destroying the liberal party but this is a fallacy. The liberal party has in fact destroyed itself by allowing a left leaning megalomaniac to hijack their agenda. Lets hope there is a Phoenix that can eventually rise from these ashes?

  10. John Constantine

    It is like the kulaks of the Ukraine, enslaved by Stalin, starved in the commo famine, conquered by hitler through scorched earth, then retaken by a vengeance crazed Stalin.

    Scorched earth, famine, living in terror of the purges in the cold and the Dark, praying for some rebirthed sewerage.

    At least both parties promise it will end once they have mass imported enough wahhabis for a caliphate.

    Comrades.

  11. Delta

    And the Paris agreement will lead to the destruction of the electricity grid as we know it with large scale de-industrialisation. Any competent electrical power engineer will tell you that and sadly I’ve concluded that they are few and far between in places that matter such as AEMO, AEMC, the AER as well as the ESB. (Acronyms are Australian Energy Market Operator, Australian Energy Market Commission, Australian Energy Regulator, Energy Security Board). Particularly in senior and executive roles, these organisations are full of economists, lawyers, accountants and even academics who have made their transition from academia to continue with their meddling in models of the power system whilst pushing to change allowable surges in the grid just to satisfy their theories! And that is with no understanding of the potential damage to remaining baseload generators. Then you have the regulators such as the ESC (Essential Services Commission) in SA that have been trying to proscribe the laws of physics for new wind generators in that State to prevent another system black. (Well good luck with that is my comment).

    It’s all insane! Some sanity will only return when we ditch the Paris agreement completely along with any notion of limiting the life providing CO2 emissions from electricity generation and get some proper engineering undertaken to restore the grid to a highly reliable low cost electricity supply available on demand.

  12. H B Bear

    Turnbull can’t do that because he can’t criticize Labor for a plan he wants to do himself.

    That’s the problem when a political party is lead by someone who shouldn’t even be there. Suffer in ya jocks soon to be unemployed bed wetting Lieborals. The bell tolls and it tolls for thee.

  13. Wanda

    And Turnbull can’t do any of these things Nova writes above not because he believes in environmental stuff, but because he knows that carbon trading is gonna make him, personally, a lot of money, lots and lots of money!

  14. John Constantine

    The countdown is towards the singularity event, where we run so many windmills we can’t have an industrial society capable of replacing the first insane pulse of windmills that were bodged up in the big build phase.

    Once we hit the twenty year end of life of the first crazed expansion, we are stuffed.

    Inside ten years to deindustrialised Big commo Australia of thirty millions of revolutionary enraged freedom fighters out to kill racist settlers for stealing all the electricity.

    Comrades.

  15. Viva

    The most stunning fact in all this is the continued support the LINOs still get from so-called conservatives.

    Not necessarily. Contrast today’s ominous silence of the base compared to the mass clamour when Turnbull tried to do a deal with labor on an emissions trading scheme and lost his job in the process

    Back then people felt they could shock the liberals into taking some action

    Today they don’t think it’s worth the effort

    Renewable madness gives a whole new meaning to pissing in the wind.

  16. John Constantine

    2030.

    Thirty million indoctrinated godless commo revolutionaries voting for Stalin in Australia’s elections.

    No electricity because the windmills have all worn out at the same time, we have no fossil fuel industry, owe three trillion dollars and can’t make interest payments.

    All agriculture rewilded and food rations from the robot sewerage plants.

    The only economy saving the planet by punitive taxation of all those that disrespect Stalin.

    Comrades.

  17. H B Bear

    Back then people felt they could shock the liberals into taking some action

    Don’t forget guys like Nick Minchin have been replaced by Photios homos, IPA homos and Chrissy Pyne’s black handers. Turnbull isn’t where he is for no reason.

  18. Today we will witness the final nail being driven into the coalition political coffin. The liberal sheeple will provide the support Turnbull needs to endorse the NEG and thus ensure the destruction of their party. The coalition base, who have drifted to the minor right leaning parties, will not return to the fold. In fact, after this act of treachery is ratified they will erase the coalition from their thinking!

  19. Liberal party room = Titanic
    Liberal MPs = The orchestra playing on the deck as the ship pitches into the depths.

    Cough, cough …

    Liberal party room = Spitoon
    Liberal MPs = The phlegm accumulating in the Liberal party room (some of it has been there too long).

  20. Roger

    Like the story I overheard on a light plane between Phoenix and Flagstaff, someone was talking about a man who bought a cheap tract of desert and obtained regular payments for not farming it.

    Meanwhile, a Qld grazier is being fined $100k+ for feeding mulga to his cattle to keep them alive in the worst drought in living memory.

    Millions invested in properties made unviable by a government policy change.

    “Carbon farmers” will buy them up at a discount. No export dollars in carbon, though.

  21. NB

    This post, Do Voters Reward Pro-Market Politicians?, is probably relevant:
    https://danieljmitchell.wordpress.com/2018/08/13/do-voters-reward-pro-market-politicians/
    Quote from article: ‘We now have some empirical research from two Danish economists showing that voters like good policy.’
    Odd that politicians should fight this with every fibre! Mal is no exception, but he should be. His is a very disappointing effort.

  22. John Bayley

    No electricity because the windmills have all worn out at the same time, we have no fossil fuel industry, owe three trillion dollars and can’t make interest payments.

    Don’t worry John – the RBA can print enough money for everyone to be rich!
    We don’t need no stinking industry.
    (At least according to the MMT crowd!)

  23. P

    President Donald Trump ridiculed windmills as a source of energy on Monday, professing his appreciation for coal instead.

    Trump also pointed out that windmills were useless if the wind was not blowing and had to be subsidized to be profitable.
    “Who wants to have energy when you need a subsidy?” he asked.

  24. Bruce of Newcastle

    President Donald Trump ridiculed windmills

    I knew there was a reason I liked Mr Trump:

    “Bing, that’s the end of that windmill,” Trump said, imitating someone shooting a windmill.

    The president pointed out that windmills also kill birds.

    “They kill so many birds, you look underneath some of those windmills, it’s like a killing field of birds,” Trump continued.

    😀

  25. Frank Jotzo of ANU responds on Twitter:

    [email protected] put out a report saying the cost to Australia of complying with Paris is some astronomically large amount. The numbers don’t mean anything and the ‘analysis’ is silly.

    IPA report uses an invalid method to make some wild guesses about future wholesale electricity prices. Then they take the average wholesale price from 1998-2007 – which has nothing to do with anything! – as a base.

    Then the IPA report calculates the difference in prices between the irrelevant pre-2007 prices and their guess about future prices, and equates that difference in prices as an economic cost. Neither makes sense.

    Meanwhile, the ESB’s report claims LOWER electricity prices when the 26% target for electricity is reached than under BAU. Whether the NEG results in price cuts is debatable, but it’s clear that additional renewables on the grid reduce prices (not raise prices).

    The IPA report also ignores that the electricity sector can and should do more than the average of the economy, but that is somewhat by-the-by as calculations in this IPA report are so misguided they are useless. That’s before we get into the other aspects of this report.

  26. BoyfromTottenham

    Aaand the Lib party room just approved the NEG. RIP the Libs.

  27. .

    Meanwhile, the ESB’s report claims LOWER electricity prices when the 26% target for electricity is reached than under BAU.

    I also claim that I banged Elin Nordgren and Joanna Krupa.

  28. I’ve said it once and I’ll say it again. If we are to have substantial change in our politics and the electorate attitude to it, first we have to fvck the people good deep and hard.
    All those green haired fat lesbos, all those soccer moms, all those “I’m a feminist” inner city effeminate soy-boys and all those who “don’t give a shit” about politics need to suffer and suffer for at least 6 years.

    So in my humble opinion, we need a rabid Labor government (egged on by the Greens) to crash the Oz economy, gut industry and send our dollar down to 30c US before dick heads will finally wake up.
    VOTE LABOR and fvck ’em awake.

  29. Beachcomber

    How come James Paterson and Tim Wilson supported the NEG in the backbench committee?

    They have been assimilated by the Liberal Party establishment borg. It is much safer and more profitable for them to love Turnmerkel than risk a rat cage on the face.

  30. Pickles

    All those green haired fat lesbos, all those soccer moms, all those “I’m a feminist” inner city effeminate soy-boys and all those who “don’t give a shit” about politics need to suffer and suffer for at least 6 years.

    They’re almost all on the public tit one way or another and insulated from any pain Baa. That’s the problem.

  31. Beachcomber

    So in my humble opinion, we need a rabid Labor government (egged on by the Greens) to crash the Oz economy, gut industry and send our dollar down to 30c US

    Labor-Green will also gut and destroy Australia’s culture and society through immigration and cultural Marxism. There won’t be any coming back from that.

  32. John Constantine

    An economy that only has windmills can not have the wealth and industrial capacity to even replace it’s own windmills when the old ones wear out.

    It must borrow money to import replacement windmills from overseas.

    Milo Minderbinder corruption level.

    But everyone that matters has a share in the Great transnational looting cartel.

    Comrades.

  33. Tel

    They’re almost all on the public tit one way or another and insulated from any pain Baa. That’s the problem.

    See also what happened in Greece: the money ran out, sovereign debt crisis, bondholders got kneecapped, living on government was no longer insulated from pain.

    And you know, Greece is still getting bailouts from the EU to this day, disguised as “loans” which won’t get paid back. Australia won’t get that, when we default it will be hard and the Commonwealth will very quickly start snatching Superfund money (because Willie Sutton’s law).

  34. John Constantine

    Their Shortfilth voteherds theory isn’t just winning power to import voters.

    It is also about stacking their electoral commission for rigged redistribution of electorates.

    And stacking citizenship tribunals.

    And stacking deportation panels with stalinists.

    Stacking enforcement agencies to strike with the fists of Stalin.

    Stacking their media to speak as the Mouth of Stalin.

    Comrades.

  35. cohenite

    RobK

    #2788327, posted on August 14, 2018 at 7:25 am

    My comment on Jo’s site for what it’s worth

    Thanks. People often overlook the incompatibility of renewable power (!) and the grid which is an amazing piece of tech providing AC current at 50Hz. Wind and solar don’t provide grid compatible power and are located in far-flung locations. The cost of making them grid compatible must be enormous but I have not been able to find a cost for it. We know that wind and solar cost about $500 million per 100MW to install but I reckon making them grid compatible must almost be the same. Which would mean Australia has invested (taxpayer subsidies at about 70%) over $100 billion on things which don’t work for 75% of the time.

  36. cohenite

    Frank Jotzo of ANU responds on Twitter:

    Who gives a fuck what this academic arsehole vomits out; and why don’t you crawl back under your rock.

  37. tombell

    How come James Paterson and Tim Wilson supported the NEG in the backbench committee?

    Presumably because they find life in the swamp not so bad after all…..

  38. RobK

    Monty,
    Frank Jotzo of ANU responds on Twitter:

    The IPA report was based on finding of the Jacobs Group who did a report last year.
    Company Overview

    Jacobs Group (Australia) Pty Ltd. provides engineering, strategic consulting, and project delivery services. It offers built environment, capital project management, climate change and resource efficiency, construction management, contracts and procurement, engineering and design management, engineering structures, environmental planning and approvals, geotechnical engineering, and health and safety services. The company also provides industrial plant, information and communications technology, mining plant, natural resource management, power delivery and utilization, power generation, spatial, transport infrastructure, transport planning and strategy, and water facilities’ services. It serves defense, energy, environment, industry, mining and metals, power, social infrastructure, transport, and water market sectors worldwide. Jacobs Group (Australia) Pty Ltd. was formerly known as Sinclair Knight Merz Pty Ltd. and changed its name to Jacobs Group (Australia) Pty Ltd. in May 2014. The company was founded in 1964 and is based in Melbourne, Australia. It has operations and locations in the Asia Pacific, the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, Australia, New Zealand, and South America. Jacobs Group (Australia) Pty Ltd. operates as a subsidiary of Jacobs Group Australia Holdings Ltd.

  39. Colonel Crispin Berka, Kings' Fusiliers Corps.

    BoN blurted:

    For the first seven months of this year the global temperature anomaly (+0.23 C average) has been lower than the same period of 2002 (+0.26 C average)

    It’s not like you to cherry pick short term events and misrepresent them as long term trends, BoN.
    The 3-year running average of the UAH global anomaly has never been higher than it is now, and it’s now more than double what it was at the end of 2003. (Which is +0.39 versus +0.16)

    We all predicted it would turn the corner and go into cooling… and that was 5 years ago and it hasn’t happened yet. Happy to wait for 2022 before passing judgement, and I’m refraining from wishful “pause mining” in the meantime. If only politicians had the same self-restraint.

  40. Speedbox

    At 2.32pm

    SA is at $-19.70 (demand 847, generation 335, wind and other at 1014). Exporting 501 to Vic.

  41. Bruce of Newcastle

    Crispin – Remove the 2015-2017 el Nino and yep it’s flat. No one ascribes el Nino to CO2.

    I compare 2018 to 2002 because both are non el Nino years.

    The data is what it is. Now explain why pCO2 has risen 10%, or 30% relative to the preindustrial base, yet there is no increase in global temperature. Bear in mind that the AMSU temperature series is cross validated against radiosonde balloons, unlike the terrestrial datasets (spit).

  42. RobK

    Speedbox,
    SA already wants a powerline direct to NSW just for moments like that to flog power off, but who pays for it is an issue. They have to keep the gas burners going to stabilize the wobbly RE.

  43. Boambee John

    m0nty
    #2788591, posted on August 14, 2018 at 12:53 pm
    Frank Jotzo of ANU responds on Twitter:

    If you believe that self- serving claptrap, I have a bridge to sell you!

  44. RobK

    Monty,
    Jotzo refers to the ESB report. ESB funcfions within the tent:

    Energy Security Board Terms of Reference

    Publication date: Thursday, 12th April 2018.

    On 24 November 2017 Energy Council Ministers formerly amended and endorsed the Terms of Reference for the Energy Security Board (ESB) including that it only undertake work as directed by the COAG Energy Council.
    Energy Security Board Terms of Reference
    The establishment of the Energy Security Board follows a recommendation of the Finkel Review and a subsequent Report by the Chief Scientist and his panel to the COAG Energy Council. The Finkel Report recognised that the electricity system is in transition and that a critical turning point has been reached. The purpose of this Board is to implement the Finkel blueprint. Key outcomes are increased security, future reliability and rewards to customers for reductions in their demand. The transition process should be orderly; system and network planning must support the transition; and strong governance must achieve a more adaptable system that can better integrate emerging technology.

  45. RobK

    Head of the ESB is Kerry Schott.

  46. Tim Neilson

    but it’s clear that additional renewables on the grid reduce prices (not raise prices)

    Is this an entry in “most transparently false statement of the millennium”?

  47. Dr Fred Lenin

    The u.n.communist gangrene climateers should be charged with false advertising ,everything about climate change is patently lies.
    You can bet Goldman Sachs is heavily invested in the easy money renewables scam ,wonder if turnbulls Cayman islands account has invested in GS scheme?

  48. Colonel Crispin Berka, Kings' Fusiliers Corps.

    > Remove the 2015-2017 el Nino and yep it’s flat.

    Not going to, Bruce. You made the claim, so you do that work and show it. Besides a 36 month average should have already removed most of the effects of any 24-month long ENSO events.
    Not that there is much point in doing that work because…
    You claimed “the global temperature is flat or falling”. You are incorrect on that point precisely because the data is what it is. If you want to start adjusting measurements until it confesses what you want to hear I’m sure you know what sort of company you keep.

    The El Nino and the CO2 are both totally irrelevant to your claim there had been no temperature rise, a claim which can be tested on kinematics regardless of the dynamics.

  49. Dr Fred Lenin

    We had no energy problems before the climate fascists started poking their ignorant noses in ,they would be the first to scream if they were deprived of electricity for even one hour ,mongrels you would not breed from these bastards .

  50. cohenite

    It’s not like you to cherry pick short term events and misrepresent them as long term trends, BoN.
    The 3-year running average of the UAH global anomaly has never been higher than it is now, and it’s now more than double what it was at the end of 2003. (Which is +0.39 versus +0.16)

    Ignoring El Nino, the last 20 years from 1998 has seen a trend of 1.1C per century.

    That’s far less than official forcing from CO2.

    What’s happening is natural; I reckon a last gasp of warming as heat leaves the oceans. Invest in rugs, grow hair and stock up on wood.

  51. Tel

    The data is what it is.

    Give or take an adjustment or two.

  52. Confused Old Misfit

    Heh! Data’s no damned good to man or beast unless it’s adjusted!

  53. Colonel Crispin Berka, Kings' Fusiliers Corps.

    strong governance must achieve a more adaptable system that can better integrate emerging technology.

    Translation: People will get punished if they do not switch off their electrical appliances when we’re trying to make renewables look good on paper.

  54. JohnA

    Lemme see…
    From Fremantle to Byron Bay is about 40 degrees of longitude.

    That means in any diurnal anomaly we will enjoy solar radiation for about 11% of the earth’s rotation time (40/360).

    And the Greens and greenies reckon solar is viable 24/7?

    Maybe we could sell them the Sydney Harbour Bridge to pay for the infrastructure?

    🙂 if it wasn’t so damn serious.

  55. Bruce of Newcastle

    Besides a 36 month average should have already removed most of the effects of any 24-month long ENSO events.

    Laughable. You do know that averaging is not removing? Doing a 36 month trailing mean just adds all of the temporary el Nino temperature rise onto the end of the graph like a hockey stick. I demonstrated that, sans the el Nino, the ENSO-neutral temperature now is lower than 16 years ago. Like with like comparison. Duh!

    El Nino is not a CO2 related signal therefore it should be removed. Any inclusion of it is an artefact.

    Furthermore el Nino is related to the ~60 yr cycle in the oceans, which itself caused about 40% of the warming last century. The IPCC does not factor it, and since they run their century from 1906 to 2005 they neatly include one whole peak worth of so-called warming into their centuric temperature rise. That artefact is now coming off again as the cycle turns.

  56. Cynic of Ayr

    Same as the rest, I am as angry as all Hell at Turnbull, high power prices, Paris Agreement, and all the rest of the insane rubbish that Turnbull – with the help of a the sycophants – has burdened us with.
    But, what to do?
    We rant and rave to each other on this blog, but who reads us? There’s no counter on the Blog. We get a hundred max comments, so I’d guess the readership at a Thousand. Even Ten thousand is a drop in the ocean.
    We rant and rave to our friends, and vice versa, but who hears us? A Hundred? Two Hundred? Ten?
    I/We write to our local Member of Parliament, but he merely adds up similar rants, calculates the odds, and goes where it’s necessary for him. Does he/she hear us? A resounding NO, easily determined and proved by the results of the actvity in the Liberal Party Room at present.
    Jo Nova does an excellent job. Outstanding in fact. Who reads her? There’s no counter on the Blog. She gets more comments than here. I’ve seen a few Hundred at best. Always less than a Thousand. So, what’s her readership? A Thousand? Ten Thousand? More? Another drop in the ocean.
    FFS, even The Australian, supposedly the errr… “conservative” paper, sold a bit over Three and a half Million in one month! (June 2018. Print, online and apps combined.) That’s just a Hundred Thousand plus a few odds a day! Australia wide! Out of what? Ten Million adults?
    Morgan reckons 80% of Australians read a newspaper. Ah! But what’s the “conservative” figure? Judging by The Australian Figures, not much.
    Polls! 60% (pick a figure) of Australians want to exit Paris, forget about emissions, concentrate on lower prices, and build Coal Power Stations. Does Turnbull know this? I’m certain he does. Does he care? I’m certain he doesn’t. It is merely an obstacle to be stepped over on his way to become the Lowest PM ever. Of course he doesn’t know that bit. He thinks the wording is “Greatest PM.” To use Zuckerberg’s words, “Dumb Fuck!”
    How on Earth did we come to this situation? How on Earth did Turnbull, rejected a few short years ago as a Lefty, come to power – still a Lefty?
    I dunno. We seem powerless. I don’t think any of us are the Street March type. The ABC is totally against us, and Turnbull ensures that that situation continues.
    I’m almost certain the only way to go, is to let Labor win, bring the country to Venezuela levels, and start again. I won’t be here to see it. I have no Grand Children, so I have no skin in the game. The voters will just have to suffer what they voted for.
    I’m at a loss.
    If you’ve plowed through this rant this far, I admire your stamina.

  57. Bruce of Newcastle

    Cynic – Time will hit them with a cluebat.

    Right now the Arctic is having a very cold year, with sea ice much more extensive than the last decade or so. Greenland has had two big snowfall years. NH snow cover has been second highest since the late 80’s.

    With the cooling phase of the 60 year cycle starting to hit* and the Sun just entering a low activity phase the pollies will be increasingly called to explain why we’re destroying Australia to stop supposed global warming.

    (* the PDO has already gone into its cooling phase, but the AMO hasn’t yet. They’re about 15 years out of synch because of the slow pace of the thermohaline/Great Conveyor Belt cycle.)

  58. Colonel Crispin Berka, Kings' Fusiliers Corps.

    BoN blurts:
    > Laughable

    Laughter is not an argument and requires no expertise.

    > You do know that averaging is not removing?

    You do know that in this case it is removing? The ENSO cycle is not purely additive, it is a consequence of heat going into and out of the surface waters, but it has no long term effect. Averaging sums the pluses of el Nino with their corresponding minuses in la Nina, removing the short term effect of ENSO.

    > Doing a 36 month trailing mean just adds all of the temporary el Nino temperature rise onto the end of the graph

    No it doesn’t because ENSO is not a purely additive phenomenon. I refer you to an analysis by Bob Tisdale which you have probably seen before (but have conveniently forgot). https://bobtisdale.files.wordpress.com/2012/12/figure-11-trop-pac-ohc.png
    Take note of the 1997/1988 El Nino in which, almost exactly in sync with the Nino3.4 index, the ocean in the volume of interest lost energy, gained energy, and lost the energy again. Note also that global troposphere temperature has a positive trend since 1980, as does the OHC for the ENSO region, and yet the Nino 3.4 index has an overall negative trend over the same period. Bob ignored the obvious conclusion from this data, which is that over multiple years ENSO events don’t accumulate energy overall. The ENSO can be averaged out, the same as weather is averaged over multiple years to produce a climate measurement.
    Also a temperature measurement like the Nino index by itself does not show the direction of heat movement. The atmosphere and tropical pacific were changing in a direction opposite to Nino index. The idea that a decrease in Nino 3.4 is because the ocean/Earth is cooling simply does not match OHC measurement.

    Note also that there is no such thing as an ENSO non-affected year. The index does not remain at zero for months at a time. The only “ENSO neutral year” is a year where a diagnostic Nino index averages to zero across those 12 months, and you have not shown that at all.

    > I demonstrated that, sans the el Nino, the ENSO-neutral temperature now is lower than 16 years ago.

    You still have not done the required work! You have just doubled-down on your error of taking 7 months at one instant in time, showing it is higher than a 7 month sample at a later point in time, and concluding that the trend over that whole intervening 16 year period is negative. That quote again:
    >> “For the first seven months of this year the global temperature anomaly (+0.23 C average) has been lower than the same period of 2002 (+0.26 C average). […] the global temperature is flat or falling”

    It is trivial to construct a data set which has a positive trend while the last datum is lower than the first. All you have demonstrated is a recklessness towards truth.

    > El Nino is not a CO2 related signal therefore it should be removed. Any inclusion of it is an artefact.

    Again with the CO2 red-herring. You still are not admitting that you shifted the goalposts from “the global temperature is flat or falling”.

    Fine then. Having now switched topics because your original statement was indefensible, let’s talk instead about the causes of recent changes in climate. A single year’s temperature is weather noise and what is important to attribution is the trend over time due to a particular cause, not the absolute level at a given time. You did not calculate what temperature trend should be observed from GHE theory if all other factors were removed. I don’t care to try to do that since there is a whole other discussion about what factors are the most important to remove, and I’m sure you would agree that is more than ENSO and AMO.

    Behind the scenes I have now done the work that I previously expected you would have done already before making the original statement you made about temperature. I could tell you what the analysis shows and paste the graph here, but then you might not bother doing the work.

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