AND HOW LONG CAN IT LAST?
At 6 this morning there was a lot of wind around in SE Australia accounting for 14% of a low point of demand (16GW). Even the turbines at Woolnorth in Tasmania were generating over .1GW and the price was -$64. In SA the price was -$27.
At 7 the situation was unusual with Victoria generating more than the demand (0.5GW from Wind) so they were exporting to Tasmania (normally an exporter) where the hdro was turned down to about half the 1G demand. Momentarily the price in Victoria was down to -$107 (soon moving to -65) while Tasmania was steady near 60 and SA with 1G of wind was $0.00.
The point is to address the claim by our friends at Renew Economy that South Australia is still moving in the right direction under the new Liberal administration and showing the way to the future.
Indeed, the Steven Marshall-led Liberal government actually appears excited by the fact that the state will, according to AEMO’s Integrated System Plan, based on current policies and building intentions, reach around 73 per cent renewables by 2020, and 100 per cent by 2025.
(The term 100 per cent renewables means generating the equivalent of its demand from wind and solar. It will, of course, remain connected to the rest of the grid, which means sometimes it will import power from other states, although mostly it will export).
The question is how much of the time does SA depend on coal-fired power in Queensland, via connectors between the states in between?.
This is not a rhetorical question, I just want to know the answer. SA has the luxury of connecting to reliable power in other states. How long will the supply in other states be reliable when they have more of the unreliable power that is coming on stream at a great rate over the next year or three?
Pursuing the crowdsourcing of research path, is there a Cat who can direct us to the single best source of information on Solar and Wind projects in each state at various stages from planning to approval and construction and recent projects on line? It is a volatile situation of course and there is information scattered all over the place.
The supply and demand situation has changed again of course, in case people want to check.