The lunacy of the push for electric cars

While other places like Britain have woken up and cut subsidies for electric cars there is a rising tide of discussion about promoting them in Australia. As if we need more drain on the system while we are already short of reliable energy. That is the lunacy but the NRMA is gung ho for state investment in the infrastructure required to connect and refuel along the road.

Social justice

A guest with Ross Greenwood talking electric cars raised the social justice issue. Revenue for roads is raised by the levy on petrol but the Tesla drivers evade that impost. So he pointed out that the driver of the $130K Tesla is not contributing to the levy but the driver of the $30K Toyota is. He thinks this is a real issue but I suspect that the demand for electric cars will not rise to the point where we need to worry about it. Not as long as they cost $130K.

Most refuelling will take place in the night and so will increase the minimum that is required from gas and coal on windless nights but I think that will not be a significant contribution for some time. Small consolation!

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39 Responses to The lunacy of the push for electric cars

  1. That’s not the only issue, supporters of electric cars want charging stations placed along our highways so that they can be recharged every couple of hundred kilometers while petrol cars can travel 3x-4x the distance without refuelling. I can travel from Melbourne to Sydney without refuelling.

    The charging station required at fuel stops aren’t just an additional plug added to the existing lines, they need something quite different and costly. Who is going to pay for these charging stations? Taxpayers via subsidies. And how will the running costs be recouped? By taxpayers through higher petrol charges.

  2. Nob

    Norway has the biggest per capita ownership of electric cars in the world, currently about 9% of passenger cars, I believe.

    They also have relatively cheap electricity, thanks to over 900 hydro electric dams.

    And plenty of state funding, thanks to royalties and taxes on their massive oil production.

    60% of electric car owners also own ICE vehicles.

    In my experience they use the EV round town and the ICE for out of town journeys.
    I’ve also seen my Hummers and high end sports cars in Norway than anywhere in Europe.

    I don’t see how any of these conditions apply in Australia, which wages permit war on oil and gas drilling, hasn’t built a dam since the Vietnam War and is destroying power stations.

  3. John Constantine

    Electric vehicles will be easier for the State to control.

    Registration interlocks, like breathalyser interlocks. Tap and go to pay rego and fines or the car she no start.

    Speed limiters, fatigue monitoring, even area denial.

    Once placed in a welfare vote plantation in a refugee dispersal area, you can’t drive a car out of it.

    Tap and go licence to start car, so the State knows who is driving where. Behind on your taxes? your tap and go licence to use the roads doesn’t work.

    Congestion in the better parts of the big city?. If you can’t afford fifty bucks to use that road at that time, you have to go around.

    Like Stalin reserved road lanes for Party vehicles.

    Their lucy turnbull could have a list of things their turnbullites can make the proles do, once they control their cars.

    Comrades.

  4. *if* batteries became vastly cheaper

    We have already had the ability to build the cheapest batteries in the world, they are called dams. The next cheapest is nuclear power and then coal.

    All of these involve the release of stored energy. Even a piece of wood has stored energy, which a depleted battery does not and cannot be recharged without the used of aforesaid stored energy.

  5. Nob

    Norway also has 80% off the population of Victoria in 160% of the area.

    So that’s as good as it gets for electric cars, people.

  6. yarpos

    Its all good. Tesla will soon start offering the long promised $35k consumer car , with $600km range and 10 minute recharge and free recharging at home no matter what your real world living situation. Renewables will power it all and if there are any wrinkles the solution is imminent/being trialled/just around the corner.

    Thats all we have from Fantasyland kiddies, tommorrows story will be from Adventureland, were Minister D’Amrosio saves Victoria’s energy grid and continues that “downward pressure on prices buy announcing a costly, low powered, 30MW battery that for some reason hasnt been needed in the previous 50 years.

  7. sabena

    Range anxiety will prevent the take up of electric cars.Take the Jaguar I Pace.It has a real world range of 300km-barely enough to go from Sydney to Newcastle and back.Of course you may have no problems with your trip if you plan carefully,but despite that you can still be in a situation where you run out of power and the only way to get home is via a tow truck.

  8. Michael Lewis

    The NRMA is mentioned as “gung ho” on electric cars. I think that they are “gung ho” on everything except better roads and prices for motorists – that small minority which depends on fossil fuel. They seem desperate to splash money around on all sorts of “investments” – fast ferry services, whale watching, caravan parks, etc.
    And more frightening, they got the right last year to borrow money. So the ruling clique can now spend more money than the NRMA has. And as for Climate Change – as you would expect, hook line and sinker. Not the nice conservative, careful organisation of 50 years ago which took pride in the development of new roads and infrastructure for the motorist – though now, very caring about bicycle paths – in the roads.

  9. Delta

    Bemused, it’s worse than that for the electricity grid. Firstly the NRMA has a project to spend $10 million of members money to build fast charging stations across NSW. I think they will be made available free to the user or it may be per NRMA member but someone has to pay for the power.

    For the electricity grid the load from the charging station would a nightmare to manage. The promise is that an EV can be fully charged in half an hour from the charging stations. The long range Tesla 3 (for the skiers if they want to take the risk) has a battery size of 100 kWh so if it is to be fully charged in half an hour a 200 kW input would be required for that charger alone. Ok so there would be some charge in the battery and 150kW per charger would probably be ok. On this basis, for a small 6 charger station, the electrical load would be 900 kW – say 1 MW to allow for losses! That’s huge uncontrollable load that would switch in an out at all hours depending on consumer behaviour at the particular often remote location on the grid! In terms of managing an electricity grid it is madness.

    When it comes to network capacity for this sort of load, the complaint often levied about the current grid by activists is that it is gold plated, built to over capacity to just serve a peak demand for a very short time. That comment is laughable in the context of proposed EV charging stations, the network required to supply them as well as the generation needed to supply it all!

  10. Mark M

    These Are the Cars That Depreciate Most
    Don’t want to lose a ton of money on your next new vehicle? Maybe you should avoid these cars:

    https://www.roadandtrack.com/car-culture/buying-maintenance/g23723032/cars-with-high-depreciation/

    5. The Fusion Energi Hybrid is the first of three electrically powered cars on this list, rocking a 69.4-percent depreciation rate after five years. That adds up to a $24,009 loss in value.
    2. The Chevrolet Volt is the second hybrid on the list, with a massive 71.2-percent depreciation rate for the first five years of ownership. That’s a $24,276 loss in value on average.
    1. The Nissan Leaf, the only purely electric vehicle in this group, stands at the top of the list with a staggering 71.7-percent deprecation rate, or a $21,503 loss of value, after five years.

    Why electric cars have hit a dead end in Australia
    https://www.theage.com.au/business/companies/why-electric-cars-have-hit-a-dead-end-in-australia-20171012-gyzs5j.html

  11. eb

    Once again, we know the CAGW aren’t serious. If they were they would be demanding plenty of nuclear energy plants to cope with the huge extra demand to come from EVs. But they don’t, so they’re not.

  12. Fred Furkenburger

    And then they haven’t considered the impact on our already overloaded power grid:

    http://joannenova.com.au/2018/03/another-way-to-destroy-a-grid-add-a-million-electric-vehicles/

  13. Delta

    Of course, next will be the push for the electric trucks!

    Just to preempt that additional lunacy, sit back and enjoy this short video, The Truth about the Tesla Semi electric truck by auto expert John Cadogan, Australia.

  14. Bruce of Newcastle

    The IPCC report is cataclysmic, so the Federal Government should immediately replace the commonwealth car fleet with electric cars.

    All environmentalists should be writing letters to newspapers like the Guardian, and to their MPs to urge this.

  15. Fat Tony

    Fred Furkenburger
    #2848754, posted on October 25, 2018 at 8:56 am
    And then they haven’t considered the impact on our already overloaded power grid:

    http://joannenova.com.au/2018/03/another-way-to-destroy-a-grid-add-a-million-electric-vehicles/

    That’s a feature, not a bug

  16. RobK

    Rtp,
    All I am saying is that *if* storage technology does in fact catch up, then the situation won’t be as disastrous as it otherwise would have been.
    That is true but i would add; if storage becomes very cheap, it will actually enhance the argument for baseload because a relatively smaller generating plant can run at optimum load continuously, or as required…..so yes it would help distributed fed such as RE but it would be more suited to baseload.

  17. Roger

    The charging station required at fuel stops aren’t just an additional plug added to the existing lines, they need something quite different and costly. Who is going to pay for these charging stations?

    The poor mugs still driving petrol vehicles.

    Speaking of poor mugs, if overseas reports about reliability and parts availability are anything to go by, Tesla owners might want to change their vehicle over before the warranty expires.

  18. stevem

    Jo Nova and Delta talk about the load on the grid, but there is also the load on the supply.

    If one assumes 100% of cars convert and get used the same as current ICE vehicles and further assume that a smart charge system ensures an even load throughout the day, Australia’s electricity generation capacity will need to almost double from the current capacity. Is this envisaged to be wind and solar? If cars are driven to work and plugged in when they get home the load will be even higher, requiring a more than 100% increase in capacity.

    Couple this with lower taxes on purchase and no excise on fuel electric vehicles would be a disaster.
    When I’ve raised this with EV advocates I get a meaningless answer saying that electric cars would be good because it’s possible to feed power back to the grid from the car to reduce generator shortfalls or that it wouldn’t be a problem because the house could have a battery trickle charged from the mains that could be used to charge the car and not overload the grid.
    Rollout of electric cars should be discouraged until the foreseeable problems are resolved.

  19. Rafe Champion

    Don’t worry, the cost including service and the inconvenience will kill them for the mass market unless they are heavily subsidised:)

  20. wal1957

    As per usual the poor will have to pay for the ‘elites’ to have their EV’s charged.
    Just like the feed in rates paid to people with rooftop solar. It’s those that cannot afford rooftop solar or those who are renting that are paying for this stupid bloody scheme.

    Same old, same old…..those that can afford are fine, those that are struggling…who gives a crap?
    The politicians and their bloody specialist advisers should be hung and quartered over this fiasco!

  21. Speedbox

    Whether we like it or not, whether our power grid is prepared or not, fully electric cars are coming.

    Whilst the take up of fully electric vehicles in Australia might be slower than Europe (and possibly the US), every one of the major auto manufacturers has designed and propose introduction of fully electric or hybrid vehicles from 2020/21. And they have done this in the sure and certain knowledge that sovereign Governments, actively promoted and encouraged by the UN, have already made the decision (well over a decade ago) that fully electric vehicles are the future.

    Collectively, the manufacturers (think Ford, GM, Daimler, Toyota, VW, Mazda, Hyundai, Honda, Fiat, BMW, Mitsubishi, Renault, Nissan, Volvo……..) have spent hundreds of billions on design and development. By 2025, there will be well over 100 fully electric models from the major manufacturers with that number of models increasing apace. For the manufacturers, this is like the introduction of the motor car all over again – literally every ICE car on the planet will have to be replaced and the overwhelming majority will occur no later than 2040.

    As time passes, Governments will impose punishing taxes as the ICE vehicles age to encourage change-over to electric. (Part of the drive to electric is the increasingly punitive vehicle emission standards – linked to, you guessed it – climate change!)

    It is public record that 17+ countries have already announced bans on new petrol or diesel engined cars with most bans commencing from 2030. And by 2040, that’s it – a new ICE car will be history and only pre-existing versions will be registerable. As far as I am aware, Australia hasn’t (yet) made any announcement on the phase out of ICE cars, but that is just a matter of timing. The Government have any number of bigger immediate issues and don’t want to alarm the punters further – so they will kick this particular can down the road. (Having said that, I expect many countries to announce their ban commencement dates during 2019/20 and nominate 2030/35/40 as their ICE car sales cut-off).

    There are a whole range of issues (social, economic, supply, range anxiety, taxation, recharge, battery disposal etc) associated with electric cars and this post is far too short to cover even some of them. But, you will be driving an electric vehicle in, probably, no more than 20 years from now. The fundamental decisions by global entities and national governments have already been made. Whether you like it or not.

  22. RobK

    Rtp,
    Yes, that’s how i see it too.

  23. John Constantine

    Liquid fossil fuels are too easily obtained and stored and transferred and used.

    Outside State rationing and control.

    Fully electric cars and smart meters and artificial intelligence means no prole can drive internally within the State without a State documented tap and go card.

    ” What is the reason for this trip, Citizen?.”

    If you have nothing to hide, you have nothing to fear.

  24. OldOzzie

    What sort of Electricity Lines would you have to have to be able to recharge at home ?

    Originally with 15Kw Spa Heater had to go to 3 Phase Electricity (Cheaper than Gas end 70s – now have Gas Spa Heater that heats Spa in 1 hour)

    This is what Porsche is Putting in for their proposed Electric Cars

    Porsche unveils its plan for electric vehicle fast-charging stations: Electric pit stop

    Earlier this year, Porsche announced plans to deploy a network of 500 EV charging stations in North America in time for the Taycan next year.

    Those stations are going to support Porsche’s new 800-volt charging system to work with the Taycan’s 800-volt battery for faster charging.

    To test out the system, they deployed the first ultra-fast 800-volt charging station in Germany and now they are unveiling their plan for an easily deployable modular charging station.

    The system (pictured above) consists of FlexBoxes, a new modular transformer system working with “up to 36 kilovolts”, the PowerBox, which converts alternating current from the transformer into direct current, the CoolingBox, which provides liquid cooling for the charging poles and power electronics, and finally, the charging pole itself

    The FlexBoxes are 120 x 120 x 130 centimeters and can be stacked up relatively far from the actual charge points.

    Porsche designed the system to have “a distance of up to 200 meters between the transformer station and PowerBox and up to 100 meters between the PowerBox and the charging station.”

    Each PowerBox can supply two charge points.

    The goal is for the end customer to notice nothing of the underlying technology except for the actual charge pole.

    Porsche wrote about the system:

    “The same point of contact is always there: The charging stations are the single customer touchpoint with the driver of an electric car. Porsche Engineering designed the charging stations with the highest standards in terms of design and ergonomics for a positive charging experience while focusing in equal measure on the highest functionality and economy. As the engineers removed everything from the charging station that wasn’t absolutely required at the customer touchpoint and packed it into FlexBoxes, a streamlined appearance could be achieved—and thus a typical Porsche design identity.”

    Despite all the different components needed to deliver the incredibly fast charge, Porsche claims an efficiency of “over 95 % for the complete system.”

    These stations are going to be Porsche’s main ones to deliver the higher possible charge rate for the Taycan (and any other vehicle that can take it with CCS), but the automaker also has other solutions for spaces with different requirements.

    For smaller spaces, Porsche says that it has something called the ComboBox, which combines the PowerBox and the CoolingBox into a single unit sufficient for a single charge point.

    Finally, Porsche also developed the ChargeBox, a solution for places where the grid connection is not powerful enough.

    The ChargeBox includes battery packs from 70 kWh to 140 kWh that can enable one to two 160 kW charging stations or a single combined one at 320 kW with the full 140 kWh battery pack.

    But that solution would only work at locations with a low charging frequency per day as the battery packs would need to be charged every time the charging station is used.

  25. OldOzzie

    Another Article that outlines in more detail the smaller charge box mentioned above

    Porsche’s Sleek Chargers Will Power up EVs in Just 15 Minutes

    Porsche’s solution, though, looks a lot like Tesla’s. Unable to offer a rousing engine note or beautifully precise gearbox, the automaker this week unveiled the “electric pit stop”—a setup that can add 250 miles worth of charge to a battery in just 15 minutes.

    In keeping with its Teutonic taste for beautiful but functional design, Porsche split the charging stations in parts. Customers will interact with a slender, black and white, cranelike mast that offers up the cable and a 10-inch touchscreen. Behind the scenes, up to 300 feet away, it’s all about big white boxes holding all the gubbins. A FlexBox measures about 4 feet on each side and comes in different varieties, hiding the transformer and power electronics, for example, or a version with cooling fins and loud fans keeps things at the correct temperature.

    A third type of box contains a big battery (either 70 or 160 kWh), which the system can use to charge cars extra quickly, even when the connection to the grid isn’t powerful enough. The battery does need to recharge between fast-charging sessions though, so it’s best suited for locations where demand isn’t too high and it wouldn’t make economic sense to upgrade the main supply.

    Today, drivers of non-Tesla EVs often end up with accounts with various charging companies like EVgo and Chargepoint—and a pile of RFID cards in their glove box. The fastest (non-Tesla) chargers are typically 50 kW (compared to 120 for Tesla and 300 for Porsche), which can add around 150 miles of range in about an hour.

    Chargepoint is slowly building up to chargers that can deliver up to 400 kW, at which point topping up a battery would take about as long as filling a large gas tank and buying a cup of coffee. “It’s becoming more and more important as car batteries are getting bigger, and people want these as their primary vehicles,” says Simon Lonsdale, the company’s chief strategy officer. At those sorts of levels, the cables have to be liquid cooled to keep them at a safe temperature for human hands.

  26. Speedbox

    By the way, those who have any entrepreneurial bent would be starting to think (or already be planning) about how they can leverage this changeover.

    Tens of millions of electric cars will be on global roads within the next 25 years. Even in our little corner of the world, there are opportunities to profit. As I mentioned up thread, the fundamental decision to embrace electric cars has already been made – so get on board and make some money.

  27. old irrelevant me

    I’m not entirely sure we should be bagging ev’s. Perhaps less petrol cars will mean less imported fuel. Less on the import leger is less on the current account deficit. More ev’s should mean more people demanding uninterrupted el power. Go convert a car and push the movement.

  28. Bob in Castlemaine

    Apart from being totally impractical for many people in Australia where people depend on being able to refuel way beyond the end of the tram tracks and the electricity grid, the high capital cost, limited range and relatively short battery life expectancy of electric cars means they are really just a toy for rich, virtue signaling, city greenies. If mandates and subsidies were to force the population at large to use electric cars our renewables crippled grid would not cope:
    How much more electricity do we need to go to 100% electric vehicles?

    The World: An 18% increase in generation and a 30% increase in installed capacity, costing $5.0 trillion. These numbers increase to 26%, 44%, and $7.3 trillion if we assume that the number of vehicles in the world continues to grow at 2.7%/year through 2030.

  29. Howard Hill

    Great, self contained crematoria burning all over the place like a Samsung phone. Good for population control I suppose.

    Have a squiz on youtube at all the ash piles on American roads when one of them is stacked. Now imagine the carnage when a whole country is driving them.

  30. I understand the price of replacements batteries is huge. The build quality of Teslas also criticised by auto buffs.

  31. Sirocco

    What is the towing capacity of EVs? I am a “grey nomad” and travel up and down and around this country for the past 15 years towing various types of caravans. I (sometimes) stay in caravan parks.

    Given the size of some caravans could an EV tow for example a dual axle 2 ton caravan? Grey nomads contribute a cash flow to each country town they stay in. All very well up the eastern seaboard, but go inland and given distances and road conditions you need a big sturdy rig. That means a big ICE vehicle. Could one drive across the Nullabor in an EV towing a big rig? How long would it take?

    If EV charging stations are thin on the ground inland, could (would?) one climb Big Red towing anything at all with an EV?

    Should caravan park owners be worried? Once traffic drops off, CPs become worthless. Is inland Australia doomed?

  32. Myrddin Seren

    If one assumes 100% of cars convert…..

    Indeed.

    IF one assumes that – one gets a whole pile of capacity problems as mentioned upthread in terms of keeping a fleet of EVs based on the current-and-expected growth of the Australian population and current vehicle ownership patterns.

    Dripping Wet Greens-entryist Trent Zimmerman after the Wentworth by-election:

    “I think there is a lot more work to be done in the transport sector.”

    Government proscription of ICE vehicles is coming. It’s mentioned in the planning for climate change as the transport sector. They just don’t come out and say EVs…yet. One side of the Uniparty has to win the next election and then drop the hammer.

    One assumption is that take up will only occur if EVs are comparably priced.

    Forget that, Prole. It will be whatever the sticker $$ is on a government mandated roll-out and ban on ICE vehicles.

    Hey, ordinary Proles can’t afford to replace their old ICE vehicle with a more expensive EV ? You will find that is a feature, not a bug, of constraining the consumption patterns of the Deplorables.

    Even if you can afford an EV, the next question will be whether the power grid can accomodate the load ?

    Which given the Uniparty destruction of our baseload power capacity means a likely – no. Not for everyone.

    So even if you can afford to get on the waiting list to buy the EV, expect a further waiting list until such time as capacity exists to charge the EV, Comrade.

    Which on the current trajectory may well be, never.

    There is absolutely no way the mandated push to EVs will allow the existing consumer choice and widespread use of personal vehicles as occurs now.

  33. max

    Speedbox
    #2848851, posted on October 25, 2018 at 11:20 am

    Whether we like it or not, whether our power grid is prepared or not, fully electric cars are coming.

    literally every ICE car on the planet will have to be replaced and the overwhelming majority will occur no later than 2040.

    Vaclav Smil does interdisciplinary research in the fields of energy, environmental and population change, food production and nutrition, technical innovation, risk assessment, and public policy. He has published 40 books and nearly 500 papers on these topics. He is a Distinguished Professor Emeritus at the University of Manitoba and a Fellow of the Royal Society of Canada (Science Academy). In 2010 he was named by Foreign Policy as one of the top 100 global thinkers and in 2013 he was appointed as a Member of the Order of Canada. He has worked as a consultant for many US, EU and international institutions, has been an invited speaker in more than 400 conferences and workshops in the USA, Canada, Europe, Asia and Africa, and has lectured at many universities in North America, Europe and East Asia.

    Electric vehicles Not so fast

    I simply observe that the rational case for accepting EVs has been undermined by unrealistic market forecasts and a disregard for the environmental effects involved in producing and operating these vehicles.

    Unrealistic forecasts have been the norm. In 2008, Deutsche Bank predicted that EVs would claim 7 percent of the U.S. market by 2016; in 2010, Bloomberg Businessweek put the 2016 share at 6 percent. But actual sales came to 158,614 units, just 0.9 percent of the record 17.55 million vehicles sold that year.

    In his 2011 State of the Union address, then–U.S. president Barack Obama called for 1 million EVs on the road by 2015, and a concurrent report by the Department of Energy claimed [PDF] that the country’s production capacity in that year would reach  1.2 million units. But the 2015 total came to 410,000 units, representing just 0.15 percent of all vehicles on the road, and sales of U.S. brands reached about 100,000 cars.

    And this triumph of hope over experience continues. The worldwide total of EVs on the road reached 2 million units in 2016. If you plot the trajectory of the global stock of EVs since the beginning of their sales to the year 2016, you will see that the equation that best fits the data (a fourth-order polynomial) projects about 32 million units in 2025. But the International Energy Agency’s 2017 EV outlook [PDF] estimates growth from 40 million to 70 million units worldwide by 2025 and from 160 million to 200 million by 2030. Then there are the environmental consequences. If EVs are to reduce carbon emissions (and thus minimize the extent of global warming), their batteries must not be charged with electricity generated from the combustion of fossil fuels. But in 2016, 68 percent of global electricity originated in fossil fuels; 5.2 percent came from wind and solar and the rest from hydro energy and nuclear fission.

    And even if EVs all ran on renewable sources of electricity, greenhouse gases would still be emitted during the production of cement and steel for hydroelectric dams, wind turbines, and photovoltaic panels, and of course during the manufacture of the cars themselves.

    EV production will have other environmental impacts. The Arthur D. Little management consultancy estimates that—based on a vehicle life of 20 years—the manufacture of an EV creates three times as much toxicity as it does for a conventional vehicle. This is mostly due to the greater use of heavy metals. Similarly, a detailed comparative life-cycle analysis, published in the Journal of Industrial Ecology, found the production of EVs to involve substantially higher toxicity, both to human beings and to freshwater ecosystems.

    A decade ago the promoters of fuel-cell cars were telling us that such vehicles would by now be on the road in large numbers.
    Automobilization offers similar examples of gradual diffusion, and the adoption of automotive diesel engines is another excellent proof of slow transition. The gasoline-fueled internal combustion engine—the most important transportation prime mover of the modern world—was first deployed by Benz, Maybach, and Daimler during the mid-1880s, and it reached a remarkable maturity in a single generation after its introduction (Ford’s Model T in 1908).
    But massive automobilization swept the United States only during the 1920s and Europe and Japan only during the 1960s, a process amounting to spans of at least 30 to 40 years in the U.S. case and 70 to 80 years in the European case between the initial introduction and decisive market conquest (with more than half of all families having a car). The first diesel-powered car (Mercedes-Benz 260D) was made in 1936, but it was only during the 1990s that diesels began to claim more than 15 percent of the new car market in major EU countries, and only during this decade that they began to account for more than a third of all newly sold cars. Once again, roughly half a century had to elapse between the initial introduction and significant market penetration.
    And despite the fact that diesels have been always inherently more efficient than gasoline-fueled engines (the difference is up to 35 percent) and that modern diesel-powered cars have very low particulate and sulphur emissions, their share of the U.S. car market remains negligible: in 2007 only 3 percent of newly sold cars were diesels.
    And it has taken more than half a century for both gasoline- and diesel-fueled internal combustion engines to displace agricultural draft animals in industrialized countries: the U.S. Department of Agriculture stopped counting draft animals only in 1963, and the process is yet to be completed in many low-income nations.

    http://vaclavsmil.com/publications/

  34. max

    Vaclav Smil: Our transition away from fossil fuels will take decades—if it happens at all.

    The pace of the global transition from coal to oil can be judged from the following spans: it took oil about 50 years since the beginning of its commercial production during the 1860s to capture 10 percent of the global primary energy market, and then almost exactly 30 years to go from 10 percent to about 25 percent of the total. Analogical spans for natural gas are almost identical: approximately 50 years and 40 years. Regarding electricity, hydrogeneration began in 1882, the same year as Edison’s coal-fired generation, and just before World War I water power produced about 50 percent of the world’s electricity; subsequent expansion of absolute production could not prevent a large decline in water’s relative contribution to about 17 percent in 2008. Nuclear fission reached 10 percent of global electricity generation 27 years after the commissioning of the first nuclear power plant in 1956, and its share is now roughly the same as that of hydropower.
    These spans should be kept in mind when appraising potential rates of market penetration by nonconventional fossilfuels or by renewable energies. No less important is the fact that none of these alternatives has yet reached even 5 percent of its respective global market.
    To think that the United States can install in 10 years wind and solar generating capacity equivalent to that of thermal power plants that took nearly 60 years to construct is delusional.

  35. RobK

    Batteries are not yet ready for prime time and shouldn’t be forced onto the stage. It wont work.

  36. Bob in Castlemaine

    Sirocco I don’t think Teslas are set up to tow a trailer mounted Diesel generator. But, as I understand it, grey-nomads usually tow their mobile home along behind anyway?
    So if you want to go anywhere off the beaten track I’m afraid it’s gonna be either your trusty fossil fueled SUV, or maybe a slightly slower horse drawn gypsy caravan?

  37. Sirocco

    Bob in Castlemaine
    #2849320, posted on October 25, 2018 at 8:33 pm
    Sirocco I don’t think Teslas are set up to tow a trailer mounted Diesel generator. But, as I understand it, grey-nomads usually tow their mobile home along behind anyway?
    So if you want to go anywhere off the beaten track I’m afraid it’s gonna be either your trusty fossil fueled SUV, or maybe a slightly slower horse drawn gypsy caravan?

    I thought that would be the case. So where does that leave the RV industry and all the associated jobs, as well the owners of all the CPs which will become worthless, as well as the loss of income to all the country towns, when ICEs are outlawed? Does anyone care, or are they collateral damage?

  38. Dr FredLenin

    You know it makes sense ,gradually reduce petrol and diesel vehicles replacing them with musk built subsidised electric vehicles them abolish coal ,gas and m]nuclear power and install millions of wind towers and solar panel farms covering thoussands of hectares and costing trillions in subsidies . Declare public holidays when they are not generating power . Borrow trillions to give to the communist fascist soros untidy nayshuns , work to reduce the. Non complying whi9te population replacing them with coppliand black and coloured save citizens . Our ambition is true t Gaia’s wishes and George soros too ( same thing ) , te world has a brilliant future behind it .

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