Super Grand Solar Minimum “confirmed”

The global warming crowd are monsters of idiocy and danger. No forecast ever turns out as stated except as a complete fluke. Sometimes Number 32 really does come up on the roulette wheel. But why stake your future on those kinds of odds? Via Instapundit:

HMM: Professor Valentina Zharkova Breaks Her Silence and CONFIRMS “Super” Grand Solar Minimum.

Even if you believe the IPCC’s worst case scenario, Zharkova’s analysis blows any ‘warming’ out of the water.

Lee Wheelbarger sums it up: even if the IPCC’s worst case scenarios are seen, that’s only a 1.5 watts per square meter increase. Zharkova’s analysis shows a 8 watts per square meter decrease in TSI to the planet.

Forget the arguments, debates and attempts to win over AGW alarmists — and just prepare.

Assuming this is true — maybe it is — how would you prepare? We should be developing fast-growing and frost-tolerant strains of important food crops, suitable for short growing seasons, right? What else?

Just build those coal-fired power plants, and build them now!

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Not so warm in Melbourne either and we are a week away from summer.

This entry was posted in Global warming and climate change policy, Politics of the Left. Bookmark the permalink.

33 Responses to Super Grand Solar Minimum “confirmed”

  1. Tel

    Putin will be unhappy.

    Might get so bad he is forced to invade Ukraine.

  2. Just think of the climate change refugees trying to find warmer climes. This might become a bonus for Europe and the UK as recent arrivals start finding the climate too much to bear.

  3. vlad

    “We shall, during the next Parliament, take Australia into the atomic age by beginning the construction of an atomic plant at Jervis Bay, to generate electricity. We believe that Australia will make increasing use of atomic power in the years ahead and that the time for this nation to enter the atomic age has now arrived.”

    John Gorton, election campaign speech, 9 October 1969.

    He won the election but sadly did not keep this promise. It was time then and it’s overdue now for Australia to enter the atomic age.

  4. Norman Church

    May I remind Cats that the ‘global warming’ crowd mutated into the ‘climate change’ crowd quite some time ago.

    And the great thing about ‘climate change’ is that it is a term flexible enough to cover virtually any outcome.

  5. billie

    nukular, is what we need

  6. Herodotus

    Da Big Scam rolls on regardless as long as da punters gets da good oil from da MSM.

  7. egg_

    May I remind Cats that the ‘global warming’ crowd mutated into the ‘climate change’ crowd quite some time ago.

    And the great thing about ‘climate change’ is that it is a term flexible enough to cover virtually any outcome.

    Thence ‘climate disruption’ – agile and disruptive.

  8. eb

    Colder? Of course!
    Exactly as we predicted… more extreme weather.

  9. Robber Baron

    Such cold weather will be a boon to burka manufacturers. Where do l invest?

  10. Bruce of Newcastle

    Assuming this is true — maybe it is — how would you prepare? We should be developing fast-growing and frost-tolerant strains of important food crops, suitable for short growing seasons, right? What else?

    Just repurpose all the crops which are now shoved into petrol and diesel tanks. About a third of the maize grown in the US currently goes to ethanol production, and the link I gave this morning shows the devastation that palm oil for biodiesel is doing to third world countries. At least if someone was eating all those calories, rather than burning them in SUVs, the devastation might be justifiable.

    Palm Oil Was Supposed to Help Save the Planet. Instead It Unleashed a Catastrophe (NYT 20 Nov)

    It’s not as if the biofuels are really needed since the real world data shows CO2 isn’t causing CAGW.

  11. mareeS

    We live in a home built for Australian conditions in 1918, adapted by us for a growing family, but still double brick with wide verandas and plenty of windows next to the beach.

    We have enough bedrooms to have our daughter now moving home with her cats, and our son and his wife to stay when they are here.

    This seems to be the way in our suburb, as property is too expensive for young people to get into, so sharing with parents, but also too expensive for the immigrants we are currently accepting, so is pretty stable. We are not in a capital city. So few infrastucture logjams at present.

  12. duncanm

    Amuse yourselves with the paroxisms of logic arguing that the Little Ice Age had nothing to do with the Maunder minimum.

    There’s a nice stoush in the comments, too.

  13. Rohan

    Bruce, the first step of the Palm Oil equation in south east asia is the wholesale illegal logging of Merbau. It takes too long to regrow Merbau until its a sawlog. Betwen 80-200 years. So they plant palm oil plantations on the cleared land. You can start harvesting oil in a few years so everyone blames palm oil as its a cash crop, but the illegal logging aspect is always overlooked because Merbau decking is $2.99 lm on special at Bunnings.

  14. It’s nearly December and we have our fire going once again due to the much lower, almost winter, temperatures and driving rain. Vive le climate change!

  15. Roger

    And the great thing about ‘climate change’ is that it is a term flexible enough to cover virtually any outcome.

    A moot point when a Maunder Minimum, upon which humans have no effect except to mitigate its impact through ingenuity, is concerned. If the professor is proven correct, say goodbye to anthropogenic theories of climate change. ..at last. They will be relegated to the status of alchemy and astrology.

  16. Kae

    I lived in Melbourne from 1990-1992. The week before we moved out, December 1992, it was very cold. Night temps were 7 and daytimes temps lucky to be in 2 digits. I remember because I was trying to get all the laundry done before our house went into storage.

  17. Old School Conservative

    Norman Church
    #2869622, posted on November 22, 2018 at 7:17 pm
    And the great thing about ‘climate change’ is that it is a term flexible enough to cover virtually any outcome.

    The people in my circle are now sprouting the “extreme weather events” nonsense as evidence of climate change.
    Too much viewing of “The Project” and reading of The Herald.

  18. Shy Ted

    Perfect for snowflakes though.

  19. Robber Baron

    It’s single digits this morning in Melbourne. Climate change is real…I’m freezing!

  20. Entropy

    Lay people have no idea how completely and utterly and completely the policy and regulatory environment is being built around climate change. From education to energy policy, any field of science, housing, services, engineering, arts.
    There will be no unpicking this beast, regardless of what the climate actually does.

  21. duncanm

    There will be no unpicking this beast

    nope – we’ll be wearing the pain of it for many years to come in broken infrastructure, useless debt burden, and lost industries.

  22. Atoms for Peace

    When volcanoes do their stuff and emit ash AND CO2, how does that balance out? The alarmists will grasp at volcanic eruptions as being part of the Maunder minimum, but then only focus on the ash blooms.

  23. IRFM - also a geologist

    The forecasts by Professor Zharkova are most compelling. Her knowledge of the role of solar physics in medium term climate change events is unbelievable. Her work is one of the few examples where there is a high degree of correlation with the events of the past such as the Maunder Minimum allowing her to make reasonably accurate forecasts.
    Importantly her work is across centuries rather than over decades giving. This has the effect of removing noise and anthropogenic influences from her results.
    If her forecasts for the start of the next Minimum are correct then we are going to need all the base load power we can muster from 2020 onward.
    More coal bartender!

  24. Luke

    Yeah I have noticed that global warming (which started as global cooling) has now become Climate change causes extreme weather. Floods, droughts, snow, no snow, sea ice, less sea ice. It is now unfalsifiable, because anything can be pointed to as evidence. And then there is all the temperature record ‘adjustments’. They’ll keep claiming hottest year for a while, never mentioning that it’s by a fraction of a degree difference not beyond measurement error.

    I was looking at a temperature record the other day which had been ‘adjusted’ and now no longer had any of the cooling from the 30s to the 80s.

  25. Jim of Wollombi

    The link to Professor Zharkova at the top of the article is the YouTube video of her presentation of her Solar Magnetic Field (SMF) hypothesis at the Global Warming Policy Foundation (GWPF) in October, 2018. The Prof is a mathematician and astrophysicist who was born in the Ukraine who has (since 2013) been a professor in mathematics at Northumbria University.

    Zharkova’s unique contribution to solar science has been to represent the behaviour of solar magnetic activity in a model based on two mathematical equations. When she first used her model to hindcast solar magnetic behaviour she was able to reproduce the Maunder Minimum (MM) but not the Dalton Minimum. So it took some time and some tweaking of the model to enable her to reproduce the Dalton Minimum. This part of her presentation reminded me of the well known remark of the Hungarian mathematician, John von Neumann
    – ‘With four parameters I can fit an elephant, and with five I can make him wiggle his trunk’ by which he meant that one should not be impressed when a complex model fits a data set well. With enough parameters, you can fit any data set.

    Zharkova’s model uses data only from solar cycles 21 – 24. She justifies using this small sample of all available solar data [400 years of visual observation of sunspots and 40 years of solar irradiance (IR)] by her finding that the Sun is a regular oscillator – or at least an oscillator which demonstrates insignificant variation.
    She makes no link between solar magnetic activity and terrestrial temperature. She is not a climate scientist.

    But following her presentation of her SMF hypothesis to a meeting of the Royal Astronomical Society in 2015
    commentators and some scientists have linked her hypothesis with the pattern of future global temperature. This link provides a more comprehensive summary than the link at the top:

    https://phys.org/news/2015-07-irregular-heartbeat-sun-driven-dynamo.html

    For a view which supports Zhakova see Hathaway who thinks that solar cycle 25 will be equal to or smaller than SC 24 i.e. the dormant sun will stay dormant:

    http://solarcyclescience.com/forecasts.html

    For a view that does not support Zharkova see Svalgaard who thinks SC 25 will be somewhere between SC 24
    and SC 20 ie the dormant Sun will wake up.

    https://iowaclimate.org/2018/06/09/leif-svalgaard-reveals-his-solar-cycle-25-prediction-at-last/

    After inspecting the entrails of a recently slaughtered chicken as well and the writings of Zharkova, Hathaway and Svalgaard I think that a MM will NOT happen during the next 22 or so years. I will be safely under the sod when it does happen.

  26. Herodotus

    Saying someone is “not a climate scientist” is a bit of a giveaway. Then belittling their methodology and saying “small sample”!
    Perhaps she’s also in the pay of Big Fossil.

    Jim, is that the Zharkova who was the lead author of the study that reproduced the summary curve of solar activity for the last 3 000 years?

    Or some other “climate” scientist who just does stuff like hiding the decline and extrapolating after reading selected tree rings and chicken entrails? Is she of the school of science that loves “homogenising” historical data to produce a warming trend?

  27. Bruce of Newcastle

    For a view that does not support Zharkova see Svalgaard who thinks SC 25 will be somewhere between SC 24 and SC 20 ie the dormant Sun will wake up.

    Leif is a lot of fun since every time there’s a Sun-related blog post at WUWT he is to be found fanatically defending climate orthodoxy in the comments. I have a lot of time for him as an astrophysicist, but he seems a bit driven.

    The data laid out by a number of scientists like Friis-Christensen and Lassen, and Butler & Johnston is pretty solid, and works for an empirical model very well. So far the global temperature in SC24 has been reasonably consistent with those models, especially when you can see from other proxies that all the global temperature datasets have a warming bias, even UAH.

  28. Bones

    The 100 million odd souls who paid the price for Marxist totalitarianism and other madness have long gone to God; for the lefties, out of sight, out of mind.

    If the madness of global warming is finally exposed by another ice age or great cooling, it will be hard to explain away frozen rivers and frozen corpses under bridges.

  29. Ubique

    Mt Hotham snow-cam – one week away from summer folks!

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