Daniel Andrews and power prices

I know you are not supposed to beat dead horses, but lets give the carcase of the Liberal Party in Victoria another whack while it is still warm. The Weekend Australian is still on the breakfast table and beside the bowl of Weetbix is a piece by Graham Lloyd on the parties heading for a clash over market intervention re power.

After the closure last year of Hazelwood power station which supplied about a quarter of Victoria’s power, wholesale power prices jumped 80%.

How long does it take the wholesale price rise to flow on to household bills?

Someone explain how the Victorian Liberals did not make that price rise sufficiently well known and understood in the electorate to romp home? Instead they were getting beaten up for offering more coal-fired power.

And how come so many people across the nation think that Labor will do better on power then the Coalition?

OK there is the Turnbull/Wilson effect. And in the same article we find that the Business Council of Australia supports the Paris line on emission reduction. What is going on in the board rooms of the nation? Perhaps they need more females. But wait, who is the chair of the BCA? OK what about more people who know about science and engineering? That’s it! More female scientists and engineers!

This entry was posted in Global warming and climate change policy, Rafe. Bookmark the permalink.

50 Responses to Daniel Andrews and power prices

  1. Entropy

    We just need scientists to remember the scientific method, and stop calling modelling “science”. Doesn’t matter if it is climate forecasting or economic forecasting, they are a model. While it has aspects of the scientific approach (mainly the maths) modelling is more an art than a science.

  2. Entropy

    As for the Vic liberals, I am disappointed there are still some left. What do they stand for, besides discount TVs? What a pathetic joke of a party.

  3. Nob

    The wind and solar lovers had their defence ready before the Liberals, or anybody, launched any attack.

    It’s privatisation!

    South Australia blackout was weather!

    Then a whole bunch of repetitive nonsense like:

    Batteries are coming!
    They’re getting cheaper!
    Pays for itself!

    Where was the politician stating emphatically and consistently that destroying coal power would destroy lives , with higher costs and blackouts?

  4. The Educator

    That light in the tunnel is approaching very quickly.

    Sigh.

  5. Destroyer D69

    Modelling ,without scientific verification, requires the use of a black cockerel, sacrificed at midnight,in the light of a full moon while dancing naked around a fire in a forest clearing.

  6. Tim Neilson

    OK there is the Turnbull/Wilson effect.

    Exactly. With the official Photios Party line being a frenetic campaign for the Labor/Greens viewpoint on climate, any bolt-on attempt to say “oh but we’re more responsible than them” is just seen as self-contradiction and as contrary to the “consensus”.

    And in the same article we find that the Business Council of Australia supports the Paris line on emission reduction. What is going on in the board rooms of the nation?

    “Business” includes people who produce things, but it also includes “financial intermediaries”.

    The financial intermediaries love the renewable energy certificate scheme because it’s a zero sum game of trading a purely artificial item. That’s their forte. It gives them opportunities to make money at other people’s expense.

    And even the producers are largely run at Board and C suite level by people whose real “talents”, such as they are, consist of lobbying, PR, politicking and rent-seeking.

    There’s little if any prospect of the Business Council ever articulating the views of people who create jobs and wealth.

  7. kc

    Wet, left leaning LINO’s in Victoria still don’t get it. You are NEVER going to beat Labor by veering toward them, only if you offer a clear alternative. SCOMO is doomed unless her grows a pair and goes for Shorten throat. Everyone who owns or is buying a house, your house prices will crash under Labor as it removes a large chunk of buyers from the market & lets face it, the “I want a cheap home and I want it now” sector are always going to be Labor voters. It will only be when the CFMEU start screaming about a massive downturn in home construction that this “policy” (a la Keating) will be wound back. Boats will start up under labor and they won’t have the will to stop them. The welfare hoovers will sweep in and some of them will die trying. Renewable energy is expensive. It is expensive all over the world. Provide some proof for all to see. Electricity Bill will ensure much higher power prices and run industries out of business. There you go SCOMO and the LINO’s. Just gave you a campaign strategy, which I bet you will ignore.

  8. Tim Neilson

    There you go SCOMO and the LINO’s. Just gave you a campaign strategy, which I bet you will ignore.

    Of course they will. It would be universally rejected over the sauvignon blanc at Clifton Hill dinner parties.

  9. Big_Nambas

    The liberals have forgotten what “policy” is. All they do now is float from objecting to labor’s position to objecting to the greens position and back again, round and round they go, no direction NO POLICY of their own.
    Turncoat succeeded in his mission to destroy the liberal party, he should now join the labor party, they must want him now, or maybe they still don’t. Maybe labor are still smarter than the liberals in choosing members.

  10. billie

    “More female scientists and engineers!”

    female

    OMG, you so binary!

    (sorry, I might have been out of line with that, yes being a dick this morning IS fun)

  11. wal1957

    The Libs as I knew them are dead and dusted.

    My only hope is that the next Federal parliament has a good number of Heinz variety smaller parties with a conservative lean to them.

  12. Nob

    Nobody calling themselves unspecifically “scientist” can be taken seriously.

    The media has elevated these useless nonspecific ” scientists” to godlike status.

    Most of them have degrees in advanced Nature Studies.

  13. Nob

    Until very recently, there used to be a section of the Labor Party that called out this stuff, knew the value of mining, engineering, mechanics, heavy industry, cheap energy.

    Hard to believe they even existed now.

  14. gbees

    Attended an Institute of Company Directors course the other day. Guess what was under the Reporting, disclosures and risks section in the course handbook? Well climate change of course! Why are company directors having to disclose climate risk? What a bogus risk. Now if you operate a business in a cyclone region I assume that those risks have been identified as part of any normal business risk assessment. It’s a weather related risk, not a climate risk. This gets up my nose – “Council encourages listed entities with material exposure to climate change risk to implement … blah blah”. The institute has gone peak stupid for ceding to the environmentalists. There is no climate change risk in my business and I’m not going to do anything about. The most that could happen is loss of power due to a weather event but more likely caused by green climate change policies forcing unreliable, costly and useless renewables into the grid. This risk can be mitigated by backup generators and sourcing reliable (if possible) energy. My CO2 emissions are not going to be reduced. There is no need to do this. The hoax has permeated every part of society and businesses have not escaped this madness.

  15. Fat Tony

    An engineer friend just told me that up here in Queensland, a large (private) company didn’t put on any graduate engineers because they had to put on 50% female engineering graduates.
    They couldn’t find any.

  16. kc

    Tim, House prices will fall in Cliffton Hills too =) F ’em.

  17. RobK

    mobile.abc.net.au/news/2017-10-16/drew-clarke-former-turnbull-staffer-appointed-to-new-energy-role/9054792

    Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull’s trusted adviser and former chief of staff Drew Clarke will take a key role stopping electricity rip-offs of Australians, the ABC can reveal.

    And

    One state minister said he hoped Mr Clarke would, along with new AEMO chief executive Audrey Zibelman, apply a more practical and proactive approach to the energy market rules.

    It’s all working out so well now.😊

  18. RobK

    It’s all working out so well now.

    In an Orwellian sort of way.

  19. Tim Neilson

    Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull’s trusted adviser and former chief of staff Drew Clarke will take a key role stopping electricity rip-offs of Australians, the ABC can reveal.

    So they’re going to abolish the RET?

    Didn’t think so. Just thought I’d ask.

  20. min

    I am not a scientist and although my profession was pushed into that label,that is psychology , one does have to study statistics , research and analysis. The therapy I chose to be trained in is big in research and measuring outcomes. That is measure before and after treatment to measure outcomes as well as observing outcomes. Not much point in therapy if the person does not benefit and given life skills to manage in the future. This is even with mental issues that require drugs or other treatment to help manage the condition. By the way an hour sitting with a therapist listening to you can make you feel better for the moment.
    Modelling can be measured and as yet not too many models of global warming match the observations of what is actually happening ? In fact when one goes through the methodology of BoM comparing today’s temperatures with previous much of it can be falsified. Sea levels is the other observations that have proved the alarmists wrong.
    What we have in the liberals are too many globalist elites who can be fed crap that entrenches their beliefs Bet no lawyers can analyse research.

  21. Mark M

    SloMo could have slapped Bandt around the head with the dead fish of the fake climate crisis, and done a double take with a quick lesson for the kids on carbon dioxide greening the planet as well …

    NASA: Carbon Dioxide Fertilization Greening Earth, Study Finds
    http://www.nasa.gov/feature/goddard/2016/carbon-dioxide-fertilization-greening-earth

    … and there is no loss nutrition, otherwise there wouldn’t be an obesity epidemic …

    2007: Obesity ‘epidemic’ turns global
    http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/health/7057951.stm

    Bandt is the angry old man standing on the street corner yelling “the end is nigh.”
    Should be an easy target, except SloMo is on the other corner saying the same, but has a different end date.

  22. Leo G

    How long does it take the wholesale price rise to flow on to household bills?

    Household electricity prices have responded promptly with marginal increases- but the major flow on to household bills is not directly through electricity accounts, but indirectly through the effect on all goods and services. Increase the cost of the lowest-cost energy source and all energy prices increase. It effectively reduces the value of personal wealth and income.

  23. Bruce

    The entire scheme of having “electricity retailers” who are utterly divorced from the actual generator and the “poles and wires” folk is an abomination.

    It is essentially a monstrous fraud.

    A bunch of “sharpies” does a GOVERNMENT MANDATED deal with an electricity “manufacturer” to pay them “X” per Kw hour. They then send increasingly obscene bills to the end users. Is there an audit system in place?

    See also water and other utility billing farragoes.

    And then a herd of lock-step cretins starts rabbiting on about “renewables” as a MAJOR part of the grid and worse, getting this abomination LEGISLATED by the mindless cretins in the various houses of ill repute.

    Poor Fellow, my Country, indeed.

  24. John Constantine

    As all jockeys know, some days the syndicate just hasn’t pencilled your horse in as a winner.

    Doesn’t mean you aren’t genuine when you get on television to congratulate the jockey whose turn it was to win though.

    If you are being paid to whip a dead horse to make the mug punters feel like they had a chance, then professionalism means screwing your face up hard and lashing hard at the deceased beastie.

    The rewards come afterwards.

    Comrade Maaaaates.

  25. anonandon

    Until very recently, there used to be a section of the Labor Party that called out this stuff, knew the value of mining, engineering, mechanics, heavy industry, cheap energy.

    Hard to believe they even existed now.

    Yes, it is not just the liberal party who has abandoned its traditional base. They couldn’t give a fig for the working classes anymore. There are a lot of dissatisfied voters looking for someone to represent them.

  26. yackman

    There are only a couple of MPs who are capable of explaining the cost effect, Craig Kelly and Keith Pitt, and only Pitt has an engineering background. I point out that replacing fully depreciated power stations (coal) with new less efficient systems must raise capital cost and subsequent amortisation charges must raise the fully absorbed cost before onsale but it gets me nowhere.
    I reflect on whether I would have seen the obvious if I had not worked in manufacturing and had to justify capital expenditure.

  27. yackman

    As a young man I used to have low regard for Henry Bolte. No longer. Does the technical base that used to be in utilities such as the SECV still exist in the private companies?

  28. jock

    Rafe the churning masses WANT higher power prices and renewables. They want to save the world. I suspect in 10 years current srilankan refugees will be leaving via people smugglers to Vietnam or india where they can boil a kettle . But thats ok dan and bill will have saved the planet and will be transmitting that to the world via some form of communication that is environmentally friendly.

  29. duncanm

    It doesn’t help that the usual media suspects lie by omission.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/consumer-affairs/it-s-scary-households-paying-up-to-1600-excess-on-power-bills-20181126-p50icz.html

    From the graph in that article, the average residential price increases from 2007/8 to 2017/18 in residential electrickery are:
    – “Environmental” (ie: green schemes): 20% of total, +380%
    – Network Costs: 35% of the total, +27%.
    – Wholesale: 22% of total, +21%
    – retail margin: 16% of total, +63%

    and yet the text of the article is as follows:

    Why are prices so high?
    Households and businesses have faced rising bills due to higher wholesale costs and networks – the costs of the poles, wires and distribution – and retailer margins.

    Note no mention of the whopping 380% increase in green overheads, on par with the wholesale cost increases in the end price. Wholesale no doubt also has a large green component.

  30. duncanm

    Until very recently, there used to be a section of the Labor Party that called out this stuff, knew the value of mining, engineering, mechanics, heavy industry, cheap energy.

    Hard to believe they even existed now.

    Its a generic problem with the professional political class we have these days.

    None of them have any experience outside their political bubble.

  31. Neil

    Note no mention of the whopping 380% increase in green overheads, on par with the wholesale cost increases in the end price. Wholesale no doubt also has a large green component.

    I have seen it mentioned that network costs have risen because the addition of renewable energy to the network means it needs more maintenance.

  32. Beachcomber

    Someone explain how the Victorian Liberals did not make that price rise sufficiently well known and understood in the electorate to romp home? Instead they were getting beaten up for offering more coal-fired power.

    Answer: The ABC-TASS media which puts a cone of silence around anything that will be damaging to Labor. See duncanm above.

  33. Rohan

    From the latest bill from our provider (in Vic), prices per kWh

    Peak $0.104
    Off Peak $0.071
    Network Peak: 0.080
    LRET $0.015
    SRET $0.007
    VEET $0.004
    AEMO Pool Fees/Ancillery charges $0.001
    Total: $0.211 peak/$

    This is an intermediate sized business meter with a 3 phase capacity of 100A/phase. That’s not including the daily fixed charges for daily metering and network charges.

    Note that the green schemes now attribute to the value of 25% in addition to the base generation cost. And they’re what, 10% of Vic’s nameplate? Imagine what it will be when it’s 30% or 50%. There’s no way in hell prices are going south on that basis alone.

  34. duncanm

    Someone explain how the Victorian Liberals did not make that price rise sufficiently well known

    its the stupid in S.F.L.

  35. Vagabond

    This is extremely depressing. I have an electrical engineering background and have watched developments in the last decade or so with a combination of rage, disbelief and dismay. We have left the fate of the power industry to the most stupid, misinformed, ignorant, uneducated and malevolent people imaginable. The best we can hope for after the next election is a senate so full of fruitcakes that it will paralyse the Shorten government. I live in that moron Kelly O’Dwyer’s electorate and faced with the inevitability of a federal labor victory will force myself to vote labor just to (hopefully) get rid of her.

    I never thought I’d have a reason to do that.

  36. Fat Tony

    Vagabond
    #2873281, posted on November 27, 2018 at 1:04 pm
    .…… We have left the fate of the power industry to the most stupid, misinformed, ignorant, uneducated and malevolent people imaginable……

    Vagabond – console yourself with the fact that somewhere, some rich bastard is getting richer.
    Our money is not being put in a pile and burnt.

  37. .

    Giving money to Acciona and CIMIC related entities is meant to make me happy? Corrupt spivs to boot.

  38. anonandon

    Vagabond

    I am also an engineer, not an electrical one though, but I do quite a bit of work related to power stations, renewable power, as well as the government sector. I have gone past the depressed stage and have just accepted that we are stuffed. Children are in charge along with charlatans and spivs. It is incredible how far the political class has fallen and it can only be fixed by a catastrophe. A crisis won’t change the trajectory, only a catastrophe.

  39. billie

    anonandon “A crisis won’t change the trajectory, only a catastrophe.”

    agreed, how many crisis are regularly waved away now with BS, finger pointing and misdirection, like SA

    catastrophe is what all the green activists and alarmists want as well, to substantiate their mantra of climate change doom

    if the weather turns really hot this summer, simultaneously in Vic SA and NSW and the grid sh*ts itslef, it will be both sides claiming the catastrophie supports their prophesies

    win/win ?

    we are really knackered aren’t we ?

  40. Bruce

    anonandon wrote:

    “Children are in charge along with charlatans and spivs.”

    Pretty much an economic Khmer Rouge.

  41. kc

    I know power prices are a big deal. They are to me too, but, to quote Paul Keating, always back a horse called “self interest”. It is why Labor dumped Gillard for Rudd2 just before the election. It is, to a degree, why Turnbull was squeezed out. It was in large part because MP’s thought they would lose their seats under Turnbull. The great sleeper is Labors negative gearing policy. I read somewhere recently (and will stand corrected) that 65% of the voting public own or are paying off a house. 65% of the voting population are about to lose (a lot of) money due to the devaluation of their house under Labor. It is the very intent of the policy , “to make houses more affordable…and fairer”. Welcome to the world of negative equity folks. When you see it unfold in places like Mackay during the mining downturn it is a bloodbath of mortgagee in possession sales. Labors negative gearing policy is designed to force down prices (value) by removing the incentive to invest. Stupid to invest in new property if you can’t sell it at some stage. This will hit the residential building trade like a sledge hammer. Self interest dear SCOMO. Let the “children” know. Even the antifa morons have parents who own houses.

  42. iain russell

    The cleverest engineers on earth – the Hun in the Sun – plus gazillions of Euros can’t make the Energiewendung work. So Oz, with the litany of recent failed engineering projects stretching to the horizon, will do better than the Clever Clogs? I dooooon’t think so.

  43. Yohan

    Someone explain how the Victorian Liberals did not make that price rise sufficiently well known and understood in the electorate to romp home?

    Isn’t it obvious why? Because the Liberals are LINO’s. They all live in leafy inner suburb mansions. All their friends in Canberra, the media, their neighbors and social circle are champagne leftists.

    So to campaign hard on an issue like this not only feels unnatural for them, but they will run away and avoid the issue altogether, even if it means losing elections.

  44. mareeS

    kc “always back a horse called Self Interest,” we have done that, earlier rather than later. We cashed up our son, daughter and Indonesian daughter-in-law to build a beach house at Canggu, Bali, that accommodates all of us. Son and his wife have businesses there, he works in WA mining, our daughter is a manager in vineyard hospitality and is about to cease renting and move home to share our family residence.

    The reason for all of this, with us in retirement phase and them in their 30s, is that we forsee an inheritance tax that will affect all the family assets, including our home and SMSF, so we have pre-empted by distributing early.

    Fortunately, they are loving, trustworthy people, and there will be no unforeseen consequences because they know I will kill them.

  45. Herodotus

    Shorter version: politics is broken because of decades of white-anting by leftists – and the lack of head-kickers on the conservative side.
    Oh, yes, there was one, but he got sidelined for using three-word slogans, being allegedly misogynist, and trying to keep the “broad” but ultimately black-handed church together.
    It’s hard to re-balance back from our particular lean into the abyss. No easy solutions.

  46. .

    You are wise and like Queen Cersei, you get shit done, Maree.

  47. kc

    Hey Maree, Can I come live with you? Please! I’ll be good. PS. Good on you. I am thinking Beleaze. Bali but with American accents and bonefish =)

  48. The latest report shows that Tasmanian hydro has taken up the slack from Hazelwood and the price is subsiding from its temporary spike.

    Calm down, frightbats.

  49. RobK

    Monty,
    Calm down, frightbats
    The report also says:
     An increased requirement for AEMO to intervene in the South Australian market in order to maintain the power system in a secure operating state, with around 10% of VRE output in the region curtailed over the quarter.
    More windmills are going to increase costs more .

  50. Boambee John

    anonandon
    #2873182, posted on November 27, 2018 at 11:48 am
    Until very recently, there used to be a section of the Labor Party that called out this stuff, knew the value of mining, engineering, mechanics, heavy industry, cheap energy.

    Hard to believe they even existed now.

    Yes, it is not just the liberal party who has abandoned its traditional base. They couldn’t give a fig for the working classes anymore. There are a lot of dissatisfied voters looking for someone to represent them.

    I have a couple of comments (last night and this morning) on the open thread.

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