A nice day to demonstrate how the wind comes and goes. We have about 5GW of installed capacity at present with a lot more on the way, hard to say how much but it could be as much as 20GW over a couple of years. Just in time to replace Liddell in 2022?
Never mind the installed capacity or even the average provision that might be 30% of installed capacity. It is the lowest points that kill the system and that was clearly not considered before the rush to unreliable energy.
It can never work without mass storage. It is being done backwards as explained by a jovial Dutchman who has crunched the numbers for the Netherlands and Germany. He estimated the number of Tesla batteries required to make the combination of wind and solar work his smallish country. The combination of machine translation and his turn of phrase makes for fun reading. I have the translation but can’t find the original link (work continues, it is such a good source).
That flattening of wind-& solar power by using battery storage appears to be rather disappointing. In reality, only 2.66% of the total power requirement can be pushed forward one day. The storage requirement for the remainder is still around 4.1 TWh. The 3 to 4 million Tesla’s used for this are also directly the maximum. There are simply not enough days when you can save a day surplus to use it the next day.
What about pumped hydro?
By far the cheapest way of power storage are pump-water basins, approximately €2.5 cents per kWh. The ‘ free ‘ wind current is then used to fill the water basins. To move that current surplus from the left in the graph to the right (the required 4.1 TWh storage) would then cost about €105 per billion a year. or about €13,300 per year per household. Only the storage that is and just apart from the question of where we are in the Delta Netherlands that will build water basins then.
Backwards, as he said!
And this is the story of peaks and troughs in Australian wind power for those who missed it the first couple of times.
GOOD NEWS, this the original link, it is in Dutch and if you don’t happen to be able to read it you can get an entertaining machine translation.
UPDATE. A particularly good appraisal of the situation by David Bidstrup with an explanation in terms of the clinical syndrome known as delusional behaviour.
The talk by Richard Lindzen that max posted in the comments is just about the best summary of the climate science situation around. Spread it around!
This 1992 piece by Lindzen said just about everything that still needs to be said. A bit long but one of the really important papers to keep handy.