Graham Williamson Guest Post
Previously, In their AR5 Report, the IPCC have demonstrated that:
- Globally droughts are NOT increasing & any previous ‘evidence’ that humans were causing droughts is now seen to be exaggerated, alarmist or totally false.
- Droughts are much less severe in modern times as atmospheric CO2 levels have risen.
- The current AR5 Summary for Policymakers does not draw attention to the conclusions described in the scientific report.
The IPCC continue to point out, in their October 2018 SR15 report that as emissions are increasing there is little or no evidence global droughts are increasing, and they also continue to point out that there is no convincing evidence that humans are causing droughts, hence reinforcing the findings of their previous AR5 report. Note that these facts are typically excluded from official IPCC ‘headline statements’ and the ‘summary for policymakers’. Like their previous Report, the IPCC again emphasise that when they refer to ‘climate change’ or ‘global warming’, they include natural climatic variations which of course cannot be controlled by man, by the UN, or by carbon taxes. One difference in the latest report though, is that they now prefer to compare the effects of 1.5 degrees of warming to 2 degrees of warming, rather than compare the current era to pre-industrial times.
Notably however, Climate Councillors Will Steffen (also a contributor to the IPCC Report), Dr Annika Dean, Lesley Hughes & Martin Rice, have failed to reveal these IPCC conclusions in their ‘Fact Sheet’, claiming instead, “Climate change is likely making drought conditions in southwest and southeast Australia worse.” Since IPCC have defined climate change as any climatic change, natural or otherwise though, this seems a perfectly reasonable conclusion, after billions of dollars of research.
Similarly, in their report, ‘Deluge and Drought: Australia’s Water Security in a Changing Climate’, authors Will Steffen, Rob Vertessy, Annika Dean, Lesley Hughes, Hilary Bambrick, Joelle Gergis and Martin Rice, refuse to publicise the good news reported by the IPCC concerning droughts, human causation, and climate change. Instead, these authors claim:
“On-going failure to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from coal, oil and gas, globally and here in Australia, has already negatively affected Australia’s water security and will increasingly affect it into the future…….Significant impacts on and risks to our water security are already evident, and these risks will continue to escalate unless deep and rapid reductions in global greenhouse gas pollution can be achieved.”
According to Dr Benjamin Cook however, a climate scientist at NASA, the IPCC have made new discoveries and changed their views regarding droughts since their earlier AR5 Report:“The multitude of contributing factors to a drought means that identifying the sometimes-subtle signal of climate change is tricky. In part because of this, the fifth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 2013 concluded that there was low confidence (pdf) that any significant trends in drought could be detected or attributed to climate change. Since then, however, the science of detection and attribution – concerned with identifying changes in the climate system and their causes – has advanced considerably.
Findings from more recent studies using state-of-the-art models and techniques have significantly advanced our understanding of drought and climate change. These studies, using climate models, the observational record and palaeo climate information, have clearly demonstrated that climate change has played a role in recent droughts. In the Mediterranean, for example, declines in rainfall driven by climate change have increased drought risk across the region, amplifying recent events including the drought that preceded the Syrian civil war.”
But to cite the IPCC SR15 report directly, there is “High confidence in dryness trends in some regions, especially drying in Mediterranean region (including Southern Europe, Northern Africa and the Near-East) Low confidence in drought and dryness trends at global scale.” Could not be much clearer. There is no convincing evidence to support increasing droughts on a global scale.
And when it comes to ‘attribution’ or human causation, according to SR15, there is “Medium confidence in attribution of drying trend in Southern Europe Mediterranean region. Low confidence elsewhere, in part due to large interannual variability and longer duration (and thus lower frequency) of drought events, as well as to dependency on dryness index definition.”
Seems the UN is concealing their ‘new’ evidence! How many more billions of dollars must be transferred from the poverty stricken to the climate change industry before the message becomes clear?
According to the IPCC and contributing scientists from around the world, the claim that humans are causing global droughts by CO2 emissions is NOT supported by science, even in spite of an exceedingly wasteful prolonged attempt to do so. Now we are supposed to believe that according to the science, when it comes to droughts, global emissions are only targeting the Mediterranean area! Not only does science not support such claims, the suggestion that droughts are potentially reversible by a carbon tax, or by transferring power and resources to the UN, is sheer nonsense. The UN would also like to control our borders for us! And the UN wants to transfer our climate funds to developing countries such as China. These are political initiatives, popular with those who seek global power at any cost.
But perhaps there is some kind of secret evidence of which I am unaware. As long ago as 2012, Climate Commissioners Tim Flannery, Roger Beale and Gerry Hueston claimed Australians are causing climate change in other countries, perhaps in the Mediterranean:
“Australia has the highest emissions per person of any developed country” and “the average Australian produces emissions almost five times that of the average Chinese person and 16 times that of the average person from India,” ……….“Emissions generated in one country will contribute to the impacts of climate change in all countries”
Although I requested the scientific evidence upon which their claims were based, I am still waiting! Need to be patient, though their report was titled “The Critical Decade”.