An economic mystery

JOBS UP BIG!
+312,000
RECORD NUMBER WORKING
MANUFACTURING BEST IN 20 YEARS
HISPANIC UNEMPLOYMENT LOWEST EVER
DOW +747

 

There is not a modern textbook in macroeconomic theory that will explain what is happening in the American economy. The transformation from the Obama years, and of course from the previous Bush years, is astounding. Even the dreaded increases in rates have helped push things along although hardly anyone would appreciate their role.

SAY’S LAW ADDITION!!!!!! From Confused Old Misfit in the comments: “It’s no mystery to Larry Kudlow who, just in passing, mentions (at 14:14) Say’s Law with obvious relish!” This is the video and with endless thanks to COM.

National Economic Council Director Larry Kudlow discusses the December jobs report, U.S. economy, China trade, and the prospect of a meeting between President Donald Trump and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. He speaks with Bloomberg’s Jonathan Ferro on “Bloomberg Markets.

This entry was posted in American politics, Economics and economy. Bookmark the permalink.

100 Responses to An economic mystery

  1. mh

    Obama: What Magic Wand Are You Gonna Wave?

    On PBS, President Barack Obama explains why jobs are never coming back, and that a bad economy is the new normal.

  2. Iampeter

    Most of the stuff happening today is largely because of Obama’s years. The good and the bad.
    The consequences of Trump’s presidency will play out after he has left office. It’s always that way, especially since Trump isn’t doing anything all that different than Obama, except being even more left wing on things like trade.

    Also, if you’re going to take credit for Trump every time there are good numbers, are you going to equally take the blame every time their are bad numbers?

    Also, since you’ve thrown basic economic literacy to the wind, when are you going to start calling for him to “bring farming back”?

  3. The A.D.

    Increases in manufacturing are only a tiny, tiny fraction of the increases in bullshit jobs in “education” and “health” and leisure.
    Until western nations leverage whatever small advantages remain to them in technology and rule of law to reintroduce every industry, from textiles to petrochemicals, from steel to shipbuilding, we continue our slide to irrelevancy and oblivion.
    A true turnaround is impossible in the grip of a nihilistic philosophy of cultural self- hatred, atheism and progressivism.
    The bullshit economy steams ahead, burying true innovation and freedom.

  4. kc

    What part about LOWER (f’ing)TAXES don’t you understand Iampeter? TDS writ large.

  5. mh

    From the CNBC manufacturing link:

    “Manufacturers are bringing people back into the workforce, and we need this trend to continue,” said Dr. Chad Moutray, chief economist at the National Association of Manufacturers. “Our industry currently faces a workforce crisis with more than half a million open jobs today, and 2.4 million jobs expected to go unfilled over the next decade. Closing the skills gap continues to be the top challenge facing manufacturers in the United States and is absolutely essential to ensuring that the sector continues to grow.”

  6. Confused Old Misfit

    It’s no mystery to Larry Kudlow who, just in passing, mentions (at 14:14) Say’s Law with obvious relish!

  7. Iampeter

    What part about LOWER (f’ing)TAXES don’t you understand Iampeter? TDS writ large.

    The fact that he increased taxes, by introducing tariffs.
    Also government spending is out of control again because republicans never reign in a republican president, so indirect taxation of government borrowing and money printing has to go up to cover this too.
    Overall he has massively increased the tax burden.

  8. Tom

    Most of the stuff happening today is largely because of Obama’s years.

    Bwahahahaha. Steve Kates — and Donald Trump — have a divine talent for bringing clueless numpties out of the woodwork. At the Cat, that includes leftard anarchist libertarians with Trump Derangement Syndrome pretending to be “conservatives”.

  9. Confused Old Misfit

    The fact that he increased taxes, by introducing tariffs.

    I think you need to study the American economy a touch more carefully.
    See Kudlow
    He has a few creds in the economic area.

  10. Infidel Tiger

    The disastrous age of the neo-con/neo-Liberal is over.

    America has always operated best behind a tariff wall with low taxes.

  11. Colonel Crispin Berka, King's Fusiliers Corps.

    That’s a mere flash in the pan. The beliefs and political preferences of Gen X and Gen Y are going to pummel the Trump legacy into dust.

    https://i.imgur.com/gCqmxRE.jpg

    I don’t hold much hope of resuscitation. Gen Z show early indications of being more “conservative” (which I take to mean right wing) than Gen Y, but when they get their chance in 30 years there may not be any living stands of the Western Civilisation tree to graft from and propagate. Je suis Constantinople.

    Doom, doom I tells ye.

  12. Iampeter

    The best thing about the Trump presidency is that it brings out all the politically and economically illiterate leftists, that make up the conservative movement and pretend to be an alternative to the left.

    This thread is ALREADY a gold mine of clueless that makes teenage SJW’s seem well informed by comparison.

    For example:

    America has always operated best behind a tariff wall with low taxes.

    A tariff IS a tax you moron. You’ve basically said “America operated best with high taxes and low taxes”.

    Only at the Cat.

  13. Infidel Tiger

    nte Retweeted
    Jimmy
    Jimmy
    @JimmyPrinceton
    ·

    US Manufacturing Net Job Creation

    2016: -16,000
    2017: +207,000
    2018: +284,000 🔥

    Per today’s BLS report

    Turns out that not outsourcing your economy to a totalitarian theftocracy is great for jobs.

  14. Infidel Tiger

    Morning Iampeter.

    I see your angry brand of delusional autism hasn’t improved.

    Have a sterling 2019 my friend.

  15. Iampeter

    Turns out that not outsourcing your economy to a totalitarian theftocracy is great for jobs.

    It is if you’re doing it by totalitarian means like tariffs, yes.

    Goddamn, there’s nowhere on earth where you get content more confused and clueless than in a cat comment thread.

  16. rickw

    A tariff IS a tax you moron. You’ve basically said “America operated best with high taxes and low taxes”.

    If I live in America and I don’t buy imported products how am I being taxed?

  17. rickw

    Communist shitholes like Australia are in serious trouble with a resurgent USA.

  18. Confused Old Misfit

    Goddamn, there’s nowhere on earth where you get content more confused and clueless than in a cat comment thread infested by Iampeter.

    There.
    FIFY
    Bolded content added.

  19. Infidel Tiger

    Life is different to the sacred models and textbooks Iampeter

  20. Iampeter

    Infidel tiger, when you post stuff that is stroke-victim-level stupid, you don’t get to call other people autists, lol.

    Also good argument! I love how you dummies go straight to insults when you’ve been completely rolled instead of learning how spectacularly clueless you are about absolutely everything.

    At least teenage SJW’s have youth as an excuse…

  21. Iampeter

    There.
    FIFY
    Bolded content added.

    No, it was correct the way I had it.
    You’re attempt at fixing it, just proved the point.

    Confused old misfit indeed.

  22. Infidel Tiger

    Neoliberalism: better that a million people lose their jobs than one person pay $1 more for a piece of plastic dig shit.

  23. Snoopy

    Goddamn, there’s nowhere on earth where you get content more confused and clueless than in a cat comment thread.

    Please help to improve things. Fcuk off.

  24. The A.D.

    Talk to each other rather than insult.
    This occurs when you have the humility to assume the other party may know things you do not, and have good reasons to believe the things they believe.

  25. Iampeter

    Neoliberalism: better that a million people lose their jobs than one person pay $1 more for a piece of plastic dig shit.

    He says, as he advocates for fascism without being politically literate enough to realize it.

    Your posts fall into two categories:
    1. Trying to insult me
    2. Stupidest stuff anyone has put on the internet

    You should actually charge for the privilege of reading your nonsense because even The Onion writers couldn’t think this stuff up.

    Just sayin…

  26. Iampeter

    Please help to improve things. Fcuk off.

    Ah yes, the Ostrich sticking its head in the sand approach.
    Genius!

  27. Tel

    A tariff IS a tax you moron. You’ve basically said “America operated best with high taxes and low taxes”.

    Sure. In that case don’t say that Trump increased tariffs, because it simply is not true.

    Trump reduced the tariff that discourages trade between Americans and other Americans (also known as “income tax” and “corporate tax” but a tariff IS a tax you moron).

    Trump increased the tariff that discourages trade between Americans and Chinese, which partly offset the earlier decrease in tariffs. It’s close to a wash, but since government numpties are wringing hands that their revenue might not be quite as large as they wanted, we can presume the overall Trump effect was positive.

  28. Tel

    Trump also removed the tariff that discouraged Americans from dealing with the health provider of their choice (also known as the Obamacare levy). I doubt this one was ever making any significant money, but it did piss a lot of people off, and might have pushed some people into buying what they didn’t really want.

  29. bespoke

    The A.D.
    #2899160, posted on January 5, 2019 at 11:41 am
    Talk to each other rather than insult.
    This occurs when you have the humility to assume the other party may know things you do not, and have good reasons to believe the things they believe.

    Doesn’t work with entitled brats with no self awareness that play the victim when treated with the same contempt they initiated.

  30. Iampeter

    Sure. In that case don’t say that Trump increased tariffs, because it simply is not true.

    I’m just pointing out that saying Trump cut taxes is false.

    Doesn’t work with entitled brats with no self awareness that play the victim when treated with the same contempt they initiated.

    This is called “projection”.
    You’re welcome to re-read the thread and see who “initiated” it. As always, it ain’t me.
    Hint: start with comment #2899114.

    The sad reality is that the cat is overrun with politically illiterate leftists who get mindlessly triggered by the those of us who actually know what we’re talking about.
    I understand. It must suck to be retiree-aged and still not know anything.

  31. Dr Fred Lenin

    This is Catallaxy isnt it? Thought I had got in to getup or the alpbc all this Trump derangement crap. There are left globalist sites on the net comrades .you would feel ,more at home there. Leave us at least one place uncontaminated by communist lies .

  32. Herodotus

    Thailand’s tropical storm Pabuk has been reported to be “the first in three decades”.
    How likely is that to be factual rather than another climate alarmist furphy?

  33. mh

    US tariffs will hit China harder next year, analysts say

    So far, China’s economy has been struggling more with domestic issues rather than tariffs, analysts say.

    But there are signs of challenges the trade issues could add to the economy next year.

    After strong year-over-year export growth of 14.4 percent in September and 15.6 percent in October, growth dropped to a disappointing 5.4 percent increase in November, according to official figures accessed through the Wind Info database.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/27/us-tariffs-will-hit-china-harder-next-year-analysts-say.html

  34. bespoke

    I was referring to your tone you set at the start of visiting the Cat, Imp. People have attempted to engage with you civilly including me but its always turns out the same. I no when I’m being snarly but I doubt you have the self awareness in the roll you play.

  35. Leo G

    A tariff IS a tax you moron.

    A moron might be one who can’t comprehend that not all taxes are tariffs.

  36. Iampeter

    This is Catallaxy isnt it? Thought I had got in to getup or the alpbc all this Trump derangement crap. There are left globalist sites on the net comrades .you would feel ,more at home there. Leave us at least one place uncontaminated by communist lies .

    See it’s posts like this that make me wonder whether the Cat is not an Australian version of the The Onion or something.
    Yes, this is the Cat. Supposedly Australia’s leading libertarian and centre-right blog.
    Trump on the other hand, is a complete leftist.
    Regulating immigration is left wing.
    Regulating trade is left wing.
    Out of control government spending is left wing.
    Trying to regulate the economy to stop “unemployment” or “bring back manufacturing” or whatever, is left wing.
    etc.
    I mean yea, he’s not in the democrat party, is that why you think he’s not a leftist?
    You want a place uncontaminated by communist lies but you support Trump, which mean you support a lot of pretty leftist ideas anyway?

    So the REAL question is: why would there be support for a leftist administration like Trump at the cat, along with the increasingly economically unsound discussions of his policies, that we are seeing from Kates?

    So, either the cat is misnamed or there are a lot of politically illiterate leftists here for some reason, who don’t even understand that they are leftists.

  37. Iampeter

    I was referring to your tone you set at the start of visiting the Cat, Imp. People have attempted to engage with you civilly including me but its always turns out the same. I no when I’m being snarly but I doubt you have the self awareness in the roll you play.

    Again more projection. I was very civil when I first visited the cat and got ridiculously flamed by people who I assumed were trolling, but now know, literally don’t know what they are talking about and are triggered by those of us who do.
    You can’t engage civilly on a topic you know nothing about, which is why there’s so much triggering.

    A moron might be one who can’t comprehend that not all taxes are tariffs.

    Yea but all tariffs are taxes.
    Did you seriously post this? I mean, is this real? In a thread of serious stupid, you managed to pull ahead of everyone. Well done.

    Anyway, lunch break.

  38. Iampeter

    I was referring to your tone you set at the start of visiting the Cat, Imp.

    Not to mention that you’re still trying to take this line on a thread where you’re suggestion that I’m the problem has already been eloquently proven wrong.

    Classic Cat! Don’t know what you’re saying and get proven wrong? No worries! Just double down!

  39. Perth Trader

    Iampeter….The Chinese have had tariffs on US imports for decades yet grew there economy by double figures. The Chinese only increased tariffs by 25% on approx. $16/20 bill. of imports that already had tariffs on them. Under Bush and Obama the USA lowered tariffs on Chinese imports ie. steel and aluminium that added extra burden to those industries. By lowering business regulation , Lowering taxation, lowering employment costs Trump has decreased The USA’s manufacturing costs and the consumer wins.

  40. Infidel Tiger

    The sacred models and texts must never be questioned or the whiny autist will go berserk.

  41. Herodotus

    Yeah, wrong thread, but everyone should be reading Mr. Kates!

  42. JC

    Iampeter

    This is now 2019 and the year of integrity. Show some in your debating tactics.

  43. Perth Trader

    The biggest problem with economists is the belief that consumerism has a ‘end’. Sci Fi films and leftists have pushed this idea for decades. No more oil or no more trees. The newest adds on TV are no more water.

  44. Confused Old Misfit

    I was very civil when I first visited the cat and got ridiculously flamed

    Because of your “I’m the smartest person in the room”, “You are all so stupid it’s unbelievable”, “You’re wrong and I’m right”, “You don’t know what you’re talking about.”, ad hominids, attitude and mode of presentation.
    In other words, your enormous egotism has destroyed any credibility you might have engendered.

  45. Iampeter

    The sacred models and texts must never be questioned or the whiny autist will go berserk.

    You keep making posts like this as if to suggest you have some sage knowledge, which is laughable given the breathtakingly ignorant stuff you’ve already posted in this thread. You know nothing about politics or economics, in models or in real life.
    Also someone as unintelligent as you is not in a position to call anyone else autistic.

    Iampeter

    This is now 2019 and the year of integrity. Show some in your debating tactics.

    Ah yes, another favored trope at the cat. Get triggered by someone and start insulting them only to cry for “integrity in debating tactics” when you get a taste of your own medicine.
    I’m sure you were going to address similar posts to infidel or Tom, who further up in the thread started with the usual ad hominems because he got triggered.

    You cretins can’t even white knight correctly.

  46. Infidel Tiger

    Show your working please.

  47. Perth Trader

    Iampeter….Speaking only for myself as a mature age , self employed consumer I find porn and sex drive is a good economic indicator. If I feel good about myself this ‘primal drive’ I have increases with my income , and vice versa. The trump effect works.

  48. egg_

    Neoliberalism: better that a million people lose their jobs than one person pay $1 more for a piece of plastic dig shit.

    Nailed it.
    Just like their Hispanic Nannies from across the border.

  49. Iampeter

    Neoliberalism: better that a million people lose their jobs than one person pay $1 more for a piece of plastic dig shit.

    Nailed it.
    Just like their Hispanic Nannies from across the border.

    Right, so as I keep saying, you guys are complete leftists.
    This, who cares if you pay more for x if everyone gets y, is a common leftist argument for justifying welfare and regulatory programs. If you guys support Trump for these reasons, you can’t really oppose Obama or Bernie.

    If you can say, pay more for stupid plastic dig shit, but millions of jobs are saved, then you must also agree with:
    Pay more for your stupid electricity shit, but save the environment.
    Pay more for your stupid healthcare shit, but everyone gets affordable healthcare.
    Pay more for your stupid tuition shit, but everyone gets free education.
    etc.

    You. Are. Leftists.

  50. Jonesy

    Imp, you know there is a stark difference between Nationalism and Patriotism…one is leftist and the other is a love of country. Trump is not a nationalist. The US government under both Bush and Obama sold out US consumer goods manufacture by allowing US companies to skip borders to get their products made by cheap labour. No tariff wall meant the goods ,effectively, were made in the US. The consumer is also employee, small business at that. No wages means no effective spending, no consumers for your cheap foreign made products…Lattes all round but no Buick to go. What drives the economy more..a Buick or an overpriced cup of fare trade coffee…Now, there is an interesting parallel. The Latte sippers believe fervently in protecting the third world small business owners from evil multinationals but openly show distaste for small business in their own country…Fly-Over states, indeed!…by embracing multinational “US made” products because of the price.

    Trump is changing all that. The Tariff (A tax on foreign goods brought in under FTA arrangements) is designed to discourage the multinational from flooding the market with cheap goods, subsidised by cheap labour and conditions. The multinational sees no benefit in manufacturing in third world conditions and brings home the industry. Industry employs locally…5% increase in real value. Create supply, employ, attract consumers…How do you think the US took off after the war?

    Neoliberalism: better that a million people lose their jobs than one person pay $1 more for a piece of plastic dig shit.

    Hmmm, that sounds familiar….”better to let an industry fail than take one step back on pay and conditions”

  51. Infidel Tiger

    Pay more for your stupid electricity shit, but save the environment.
    Pay more for your stupid healthcare shit, but everyone gets affordable healthcare.

    If that were true I would agree with it.

  52. bespoke

    Are you going to Harvard soon, Imp?

  53. Tel

    Are you going to Harvard soon, Imp?

    Even worse … Princeton!

  54. Tel

    A moron might be one who can’t comprehend that not all taxes are tariffs.

    That might be meaningful if you could find an example.

    Show me a tax that:
    1. does not interfere with economic activity between any individuals or groups.
    2. does not skim off a slice of the profit made during a transaction.

    Off you go, that should take a while.

  55. Boambee John

    Iampeter
    #2899142, posted on January 5, 2019 at 11:31 am
    Turns out that not outsourcing your economy to a totalitarian theftocracy is great for jobs.

    It is if you’re doing it by totalitarian means like tariffs, yes.

    Goddamn, there’s nowhere on earth where you get content more confused and clueless than in a cat comment thread.

    You could improve the situation by not posting here!

  56. bespoke

    You can’t engage civilly on a topic you know nothing about

    No what you seem to portraying is “You can’t engage civilly unless you agree with me“. If so why bother with us dummy’s and talk to your self. It would be less stressful for you after all I wouldn’t attempt to teach my dog to fly a plane. A self proclaimed eloquent genius shouldn’t waist your time.

  57. Iampeter

    If that were true I would agree with it.

    *Facepalm*

    You’re arguments are just as politically and economically illiterate as that of any leftist.
    Tariffs are no more going to save jobs than socialized medicine would save healthcare.

  58. mh

    Larry Kudlow believes that Trump needs to impress on Jerome Powell Say’s Law at a future meeting.

    The issue there is what are the real interests and goals of the Federal Reserve? Trump’s goals include MAGA. I expect the Feds don’t give a toss about MAGA.

  59. Colonel Crispin Berka, King's Fusiliers Corps.

    Trump reduced the tariff that discourages trade between Americans and other Americans (also known as “income tax” and “corporate tax” but a tariff IS a tax you moron).

    A tariff is charged on purchases at point of importation. An income tax is charged on… oh god why do I even bother to explain this.

    Obviously, income tax is by definition not a tariff, which is why a reduction in the income tax can’t be used to argue that Trump decreased tariffs. If the USA is lucky the lower income tax may more than offset the increased tariffs in terms of pressure on household discretionary spending, but that doesn’t make your argument as written any less flawed.

    On the legal definition (eg Black’s dictionary), the Obamacare example is also not legally a tariff because it does not involve importation of foreign goods. Modern economists of the classical and Austrian ilk use the term exclusively in the context of cross-border trade, which typically means international and never refers to competitors within the same jurisdiction.

    If we were to generously stretch the definition of tariff to cover domestic services, not only imports, the Obamacare levy on people without ACA-approved health insurance could be considered a tariff because although it was charged annually on the income tax assessment form it could be levied on people who had health insurance which didn’t come from some approved set of Democrat-favoured policies.

    Anyhow, please stop implicitly redefining words for rhetorical value, it is very confusing.
    If you’re going to use words to intend other than what is in the dictionary can you please alert us to it first.

  60. Paul Farmer

    A lot of leftist political opponents of Trump are quick to claim he and his advisers are economic illerates because they have embraced raising tariffs on the Chinese. Firstly it is somewhat ironic that leftists who are anti free markets to their core, in the case of Trump claim some sort of economic moral superiority over him for their hollow and now convenient support of free trade , when for years they have done everything to prevent it.

    Trump is no idiot. There hasn’t been rules based free trade between China and the US for years. Kudlow lays this out briefly in the piece. The Chinese have abused technology transfer rules, IP and copyright , patent rules, kept their own markets closed in key areas and pursued a dedicated strategy of over 40 years to hollow out American manufacturing and keep their currency artificially low. Free trade works well and is the optimal solution when international parties play by an agreed set of rules that promote comparative advantage by market mechanisms and not government rigged mechanisms. Though you will find economists like krugman promoting the later.

    Trump simply realised this hasn’t been free or fair trade for years and called it for what it is and has said this bullshit comes to an end right here. The whole Chinese strategy has been based on the idea that the west have their heads so far up their own asses they willl just continue to suck it up and let China keep gaming the system………largely because buruecrats making the decisions in western countries often haven’t worked in the private sector so they can’t understood the strategic element here and the need for some hunger and ruthlessness in trade outcomes and secondly the time element. The Chinese are playing to win over the next 50 to 100 years and can think beyond our short term administrations.

    So Trump is now trying to the game the system his own way and play some economic brinkmanship. Cold War analogies are actually valid and some brinkmanship there bought a detente that worked to the wests favour. Trump is merely doing the same and America as kudlow rightly points out is the economic engine of the world , not china, as the leftie luvees like to think. Who buys all the shit China produces ? America , and that equation isn’t changing anytime soon, and as long as that holds America has more leverage than China. Trump has realised it and has the balls to play the game that way . Kudos to him. Most countries couldn’t play this sort of poker, so free trade is the only rhetoric they have. Trump playing this sort of hand doesn’t mean I am advocating Australia say playing the game that way . Moreover even America can only play the game that way for so long but it doesn’t mean with their power they should always selflessly pursue free trade just to keep the academics happy while they and more important workers get screwed over.

    But please Iampeter don’t come on here and lecture us trump is a leftist and his tariff policies are just stupid and anti growth. With respect , I appreciate your not a leftist , but You are completely missing many elements of his approach and this debate. It’s also a shame that most if not all of the financial media coverage pretty much echoes iampeter comments with very little time given to the far higher level game of poker being played here.

  61. mh

    Paul Farmer
    #2899406, posted on January 5, 2019 at 4:55 pm

    Iampeter, take note. This is how grown-ups think and communicate their ideas.

  62. Iampeter

    But please Iampeter don’t come on here and lecture us trump is a leftist and his tariff policies are just stupid and anti growth.

    But nothing in your post changes these facts.
    Trump IS a leftist. He is a leftist, in part, because he is implementing left wing policies, like tariffs.
    I think a lot of this “just as planned” stuff, comes from not understanding what tariffs actually are. Claiming that tariffs are part of some kind of “brinkmanship” would be the same as the guy I’m going to box tomorrow cutting off his right arm, because “brinkmanship”. Tariffs are self crippling.

    Now you raise a lot of legit issues that need to be dealt with, like IP theft and so on, but the Trump administration is never going to sort that out. Do you know how I know that? Because they’re the kind of administration that passes tariffs.

    Also, many conservatives, including those here at the cat, are not making the same argument as you. They are supporting things like tariffs not because they might be a means to an end, but as an end in themselves. The Trump presidency has exposed the shallowness of conservative claims to be an alternative to the left and that’s a pretty big deal, that absolutely no one is talking about.

  63. Iampeter

    Iampeter, take note. This is how grown-ups think and communicate their ideas.

    You mean YOU and the other dummies here, need to take note. You’re the ones who are incapable of doing anything except hurling insults and then crying when they get hurled back at you.
    Oh, when you’re not making leftist arguments to prove you’re not leftists, that is.

    Seriously, the lack of self awareness required to post what you just posted, might actually surpass your stupidity. That is quite an achievement!

    You should probably go back to Infowars.

  64. mh

    You should probably go back to Infowars.

    When I’m on a better data plan as the shows/interviews are the highlights of Infowars.

  65. The A.D.

    Let us assume person A knows a whole bunch more than persons B C and D about a topic.
    Person A then goes on to explain their views by re- interating the same point sporadically over and over and over again for months on end without any further explaination, data or even anecdote or metaphor, but with healthy doses of insult and oze-ing superiority.
    Doesn’t sound like a very good way to convince anyone else.
    Sounds a bit fruitless.
    And that is assuming Person A actually knows more than persons B C and D. Which can’t be verified either way because their arguments are not working.

  66. egg_

    You. Are. Leftists.

    Try the veal.

  67. bespoke

    No wonder Imp that people think your parody sock. I say something then you come back with only a few changes accusing others of the same thing. I should be flattered if it wasn’t so sad. Dot is this you?

  68. egg_

    And that is assuming Person A actually knows more than persons B C and D. Which can’t be verified either way because their arguments are not working.

    More common blackouts due to ruinables, despite voluntary industry shutdowns, Aunty acknowledging that CAGW is now toxic with the public, the resident Greenoid at work retreating to the position that sea levels will rise in a century and cost the real estate foreshores of our grand kiddies (shudder!)?

    Yawn.

  69. egg_

    I thought it was JC’s parody sock?

  70. egg_

    A lot of leftist political opponents of Trump are quick to claim he and his advisers are economic illerates because they have embraced raising tariffs on the Chinese.

    The Yanks did it against Jap cars, so the Japs optioned them up and so now even entry level cars have air/steer/auto packs – you probably couldn’t sell a car today without air conditioning.

  71. bespoke

    Whoever it is egg, it’s hilarious. Could even be Tel or you?

  72. egg_

    The Chinese have abused technology transfer rules, IP and copyright , patent rules, kept their own markets closed in key areas and pursued a dedicated strategy of over 40 years to hollow out American manufacturing and keep their currency artificially low.

    They clone the West’s products for their internal markets, which is a huge impost, so when they export them it’s adding insult to injury.

  73. Tel

    On the legal definition (eg Black’s dictionary), the Obamacare example is also not legally a tariff because it does not involve importation of foreign goods.

    Who gives a shit about your word games?

    Don’t try to bluff your way through, address the issue. Show me a tax that does not skim off some percentage of each transaction between individuals. The exact way that percentage gets calculated might matter at the accounting level but in effect that’s just various ways to obscure how much is taken. When identifying the principle of the operation the exact rate is not relevant.

  74. max

    What Is the Time Lag in Monetary or Fiscal Policy?

    Monetary policy changes normally take a certain amount of time to have an effect on the economy. The time lag could span anywhere from nine months up to two years. Fiscal policy and its effects on output have a shorter time lag. When monetary policy attempts to stimulate the economy by lowering interest rates, it may take up to 18 months for evidence of any improvement in economic conditions to show up. Additionally, if the government changes its fiscal policy and chooses to increase spending, for example, the fiscal stimulus may still take several months to have any effect on the economy.

    What Is the Time Lag in Monetary or Fiscal Policy?

    Monetary policy changes normally take a certain amount of time to have an effect on the economy. The time lag could span anywhere from nine months up to two years. Fiscal policy and its effects on output have a shorter time lag. When monetary policy attempts to stimulate the economy by lowering interest rates, it may take up to 18 months for evidence of any improvement in economic conditions to show up. Additionally, if the government changes its fiscal policy and chooses to increase spending, for example, the fiscal stimulus may still take several months to have any effect on the economy.

    Interest Rates Are on the Rise, QE unwinding and Fed’s Balance Sheet Reduction Reaches $402 Billion.

    how long before world bubble economy implode, it’s anyone’s guess.

  75. max

    TARIFFS ARE TAXES
    A tariff is a special kind of tax. It is a tax paid directly by importers for the right to offer foreign products for sale on a domestic market. Indirectly, however, the tax is borne by a whole host of people, and these people are seldom even aware that they are paying the tax.

    Tariffs: The Preferred Tax of Masochists
    Gary North – January 28, 2016

    If I were to come to you and say “What this country needs is higher taxes in order to make us all rich,” you would correctly conclude that I had lost my mind or my principles. But if I were to come to you and say, “What this country needs is higher tariffs to make us all rich,” a considerable number of you would say, “You know, he’s absolutely right.”
    What you need to understand is that these two statements are the same, economically speaking: “What this country needs is higher taxes to make us rich” and “What this country needs is higher tariffs to make us rich.”
    Why are they the same? Because a tariff is a tax. This is the “dirty little secret” that every promoter of higher tariffs never tells you. It is the secret revealed by economic analysis ever since Adam Smith’s Wealth of Nations (1776), which is why those people who publicly promote tariffs are very seldom trained economists, and why those few who are economists are devoted followers of John Maynard Keynes and hostile to the idea of economic freedom.
    The defenders of tariffs insist that tariffs are the one remarkable exception to the logic of economics. We can raise tariffs (get the government to collect more sales taxes on imported goods), and in doing so, stimulate the economy and increase our nation’s per capita wealth. Let’s think about this for a moment. Higher sales taxes are beneficial to the economy? That is what the tariff advocate is saying, though he never says it this way. (If he said it this way. nobody would believe him.)
    This is Keynesianism with a vengeance: tax and tax, spend and spend. This is the tax collectors’ siren song. “We’ll take your money, and you’ll be so much better off!” This is the economics of the New Deal: tax ourselves rich. Yet conservatives buy this argument almost every time when the word “tariff” is substituted for “tax,” unless they have read and have also understood Henry Hazlitt’s Economics in One Lesson or some similar free market economics book. They instinctively have faith in word magic: substitute a different word, and the laws of economics no longer apply.
    https://www.garynorth.com/public/14789.cfm

  76. None

    Around 2:40 he gives the basic formula for Success. Lower taxes that is lower business and individual taxes, deregulation, and note this very important one: unlocking the energy sector.
    Do that and it’s boom boom boom.

  77. None

    Well said Paul Farmer.
    As for Oompa-Loompa Lumpeter. Typical idiot not worth interacting with.

  78. sdfc

    Kudlow’s a sell out. The man has no credibility.

  79. Paul Farmer

    My earlier comments are not meant to be an endorsement of tariffs. From Smith down through Riccardo and on to the Smoot Hawley tariff Act in the Great Depression , the evidence clearly show tariffs don’t work in the long run. That said but , many put too much of the blame for the Great Depression on Smoot Hawley. As Friedman and Schwartz have shown , more blame lays with the Fed in starting it and as a great book , The Forgotten Man , a History of the Great Depression by Amity Shleas shows it was Fdrs interference in just about every aspect of the domestic economy in the Us through the 30s that was really the cause of prolonging it until Ww2 catapulated them out of it.

    But tariffs being sub optimal and knowingly letting another player rig the system to their own favour and giving you the bird for years are two different things. Capitalism is about using your comparative advantage to win, and if you’re not prepared to fight for a leveller playing field, no one else is going to fight for you. Trump is an instinctive fighter and knows you have to push back in this life if you want to win. So to write him off as just an idiot is missing his whole modus operandi.

    Finally the Chinese economy is struggling because they have not built depth in their economy , it’s export orientation at the exclusion of much else is its weakness. This plays to Trumps advantage. The Chinese haven’t let their internal economy develop along the lines of specialisation and market principles that we see in the West. Hence it is still a lot like like the Soviet Union in many ways, it is rotten from the core in. If Trump takes away the candy of winning all too easily in the export sector which they have been allowed to do by exploiting their workers for years , manipulating their currency and stealing technology, and not allowing imports in in key sectors, by pushing back on them so it a more balanced trade arena , then the Chinese have to find more growth internally.

    But how do you do this if your internal economy is more similar to the former Soviet Union then people in the west realise when you look how it’s configured , closed off and highly inefficient and regulated by often corrupt bureaucrats in key areas . State run capitalism with limited economic freedoms and limited property rights will only take you so far before yo hit a dead end and that dead end is looming for China. The more you think it through , Trumps policies and aggressiveness which isnt without risks, has a good chance of success because China hasn’t built a sustainable well rounded economy but rather built one almost entirely dependant on exports to the Eu ( and we all know the EU is dying) and the Us, and now trump has said, well if you want my candy we are going to play by my rules from now on.

    If you write him off as a fool, you may find you are wearing that tag by the time history plays itself out.

  80. Jannie

    The line that this economic boom is all down to Obama is classic nonsense and invites ridicule.

    But discussing economics with Peterkin The Simpleton is an Augean labour, best for those with unending reserves of patience and optimism.

  81. None

    Trump is not god that I would say he’s the smartest economic manager America has seen for a long long time.

  82. rickw

    TARIFFS ARE TAXES

    Strangely people who normally support tax and spend, because Government knows best how to spend our money, are having kittens over “tax” as a result of the simplistic labeling of Tariffs as tax.

    Apparently if your economy is being attacked by an IP thieving dictatorship that has no reciprocity on business access you just let it happen.

  83. mh

    Kudlow’s a sell out. The man has no credibility.

    And why is that, pray tell?

  84. Mark A

    rickw
    #2899754, posted on January 6, 2019 at 6:47 am

    Apparently if your economy is being attacked by an IP thieving dictatorship that has no reciprocity on business access you just let it happen.

    I keep asking why the proponents of ‘free trade at any price’ disregard the lack of reciprocity but no answer.

  85. Iampeter

    What happened to integrity in debate guys?
    I’m sure JC will be here any moment to address the previously described unacceptable posts of Jeannie and None and pretty much EVERYONE as hurling insults is all that the confused leftists that post here can do.
    I mean, I’m sure JC isn’t just another clueless hypocrite who doesn’t know anything about politics but spends time on a political blog policing speech of those he disagrees with for some reason.
    Over to you JC…

  86. Iampeter

    Paul, your just restating your previous post and ignoring my response entirely.
    I’m not writing off Trump as stupid, I’m explaining WHY that is the case. One of those “whys” is the fact that his administration is passing tariffs, which are leftist and completely idiotic policies, that do nothing but hurt America.
    Someone fighting back against China would be unilaterally removing all tariffs.
    But you’re missing the bigger point, which is that this even needs to be explained.
    All the so called “capitalists” of the conservative movement have clearly demonstrated that they are nothing of the sort.
    We can also now see what some of us have been saying for a long time, that conservatives don’t have alternative ideas to the left.
    Mainstream politics is just two left wing factions, with conservatives representing the far more confused one, in a race to the bottom. This is the real issue facing politics today.

  87. Snoopy

    Fight back against car theft. Leave your keys in the ignition.

  88. Tel

    Strangely people who normally support tax and spend, because Government knows best how to spend our money, are having kittens over “tax” as a result of the simplistic labeling of Tariffs as tax.

    Well who in particular normally supports tax and spend?

    All government spending must necessarily involve taxing someone, somewhere. That’s the law of arithmetic. Borrowing is taxing the unborn with interest thrown on top. Printing money is taxing by stealth, as regular people attempt to use money it devalues in their hands. So let’s look at the US government spending.

    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FYONGDA188S

    Spending as percent of GDP is lower than it was during the “small government” Reagan years, much small than Obama’s “shovel ready” stimulus spending. The USA is roughly on the level with government spending back in the late 1970’s. In the scheme of things, that makes Trump a low tax President, because government spending is down. Sure, they could do more, Trump has been talking about budget cuts … and indeed Trump talks about a lot of things.

  89. Colonel Crispin Berka, King's Fusiliers Corps.

    #2899546, posted on January 5, 2019 at 8:59 pm

    Tel, you tried to redefine the word “tariff” from its long held meaning and now through projection you’re accusing me of playing word games. I quote you again:

    #2899169, posted on January 5, 2019 at 11:49 am
    Trump reduced the tariff that discourages trade between Americans and other Americans (also known as “income tax” and “corporate tax”

    Don’t dodge or bluff your way through it. The deleterious effects of all taxes are irrelevant to your error. Don’t make me draw you a Venn diagram. Tariffs are taxes. Income taxes are taxes. We know this. But you’re the first person to claim that income taxes are tariffs. Just try to deal with this error in some manner other than doubling down.

  90. mh

    I’m not writing off Trump as stupid, I’m explaining WHY that is the case. One of those “whys” is the fact that his administration is passing tariffs, which are leftist and completely idiotic policies, that do nothing but hurt America.
    Someone fighting back against China would be unilaterally removing all tariffs.

    China would be encouraging more of the same then from Trump. Except they aren’t.

  91. JohnA

    Iampeter #2899462, posted on January 5, 2019, at 6:56 pm

    Iampeter, take note. This is how grown-ups think and communicate their ideas.

    You mean YOU and the other dummies here, need to take note. You’re the ones who are incapable of doing anything except hurling insults and then crying when they get hurled back at you.
    Oh, when you’re not making leftist arguments to prove you’re not leftists, that is.

    Seriously, the lack of self awareness required to post what you just posted, might actually surpass your stupidity. That is quite an achievement!

    You should probably go back to Infowars.

    Pot, meet kettle.

  92. Bad Samaritan

    Colonel (11.36am); Trump’s tariffs are only possible taxes; very unusual tariffs. They are not meant to protect US producers, as tariffs are usually supposed to do, but to punish the Chinese for their anti-competitive behaviour. This latter has been explicitly stated many times.

    The key here is that China has been singled out. If a US importer wishes to substitute a very similar cheap non-Chinese product for the Chinese one which becomes more expensive due to a tariff, they can…..even though the substituted product may still undercut US manufacturers of that product. It is therefore not a tax on a product per se, but on a country.

    So here’s how it’ll work….a Chinese manufacturer makes an item for $40 and sells it to a US importer for $60. The importer onsells it to a retailer for $110 after getting it to the US, and it’s finally sold for $200 in the shop. With the new 25% tariff, the Chinese product will still cost $40 to produce; still be sold for $60 but will have $15 added to the price (the tariff). The product now lands in the US and is sold to a retailer for $125. Except that the importer will start looking for a cheaper supplier and we may never see the now more expensive Chinese-made item again…

    Let’s say he finds this item in Bangladesh for $65 ($5 more than the Chinese one) but since it attracts no tariff it now gets into the US, and can be sold for $115, $5 more than the Chinese one would’ve in the old days, but $10 less than the new tariff-included Chinese price.

    Now the importer or retailer has a few choices A) The importer takes the $5 hit and continues selling at $110 as before, or B) The importer adds the $5 to onsell at $115 and the retailer takes the hit by continuing to sell at $200, or C) The importer adds the $5 and the retailers does likewise so that the consumer pays the extra $5. Only in case C is it a tax on Americans. That’s 2.5% increase. However….

    The Chinese manufacturer will now be in serious trouble. To get the product to the US for less than the now-competitive Bangladeshi substitute, the Chinese manufacturer will need to sell for $50 to the US importer ($50+ 25% = $62.50 vs the Bangladeshi $65), and see all his nett profit disappear; still going bust.

    And that’s the Trump plan. Thousands (millions?) of Chinese firms, with multiple millions of unemployed Chinese citizens going bust unless the Chinese Govt stops it’s chicanery, and a potential very very small end-user price increase if it’s even passed on. It’s therefore only a maybe tax, which has very alarming implications for the Chinese Govt.

    Assymetrical warfare I tell’s ya, Trump is a genius!

  93. Done Deal

    The ABC gave Dr Phelps a platform this morning, who’d have thought; one huge publicly funded left wing propaganda unit providing a soap box to an inner city ‘Dr’s wife’ (?) with her snout in several publicly funded troughs, ie the Medicare bottomless money pit, the public payroll, and a couple of negatively geared investment properties, railing against someone expressing an opinion, in what used to be a free country, that runs counter to the left wing orthodoxy. None of these parasitic leeches would know what the real world is like & none of them could survive on their wits for 12 months without having their snouts in the wallets of real-income earning taxpayers. Nor will they ever have to worry about it, even if they lost their ‘jobs’ tomorrow, cushy cpi adjusted government pensions for life you know. Does anyone believe these types, deed down, have any other interest but their own?

  94. Snoopy

    To be fair to Dr Phelps MP, she also has her snout in a private trough.

  95. Kneel

    “…Trying to regulate the economy to stop “unemployment” or “bring back manufacturing” or whatever, is left wing.”

    Yes.
    And removing regulations and lowering taxes – both of which DT has managed to do – are right wing, aren’t they?

    When will you stop trying to pidgeon-hole Trump along with all the other muppets? He wants what works, that’s it. Left OR Right is is sub-optimal.

  96. Iampeter….Speaking only for myself as a mature age , self employed consumer I find porn and sex drive is a good economic indicator. If I feel good about myself this ‘primal drive’ I have increases with my income , and vice versa. The trump effect works.

    Of all the stupid things posted in this thread, of which there are legion, Perth Trader and his wank-led recovery is the dumbest.

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