How much worse can it get?

A reminder to you Keynesians out there, macroeconomic theory is false from end to end, providing no insight into how an economy works. Other than that, please carry on. From Instapundit.

HORRORS OF THE TRUMP ECONOMY: Skills Gap Gives Workers Unprecedented Power, Perks. “A survey from CareerBuilder reports 25 percent of employers in manufacturing have lost revenue due to unfilled vacancies, and many are offering extended overtime pay to existing workers as they struggle to keep production lines running. Difficult-to-fill production jobs now command a wage premium, partially in an attempt to lure job seekers who might prefer other fields. Industrial engineers and other tech-savvy factory jobs offer four or five times the salary of a floor assembly role. Another key benefit workers have been able to negotiate as their value rises is on-site and in-role training. Employers who could previously depend on trained and certified workers to arrive at interviews are increasingly willing to offer training and certification to less-qualified but more readily available entry-level workers. Training is often paid and may reduce onboarding time by training participants for specific roles and proprietary systems.”

It’s easy to see why they want to impeach him since he is demonstrating that virtually everything our political elites believe is wrong.

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14 Responses to How much worse can it get?

  1. Roger

    My goodness, at this rate Trump will turn the US into a genuine workers’ paradise.

    No wonder they are desperate to impeach him!

  2. John Constantine

    Everything our elites use as an excuse for a new revolutionary, global and eternal, socialist Tyranny of rationing and gulags and State paramilitary death squads is xposed by Trump as a lie.

    The elites will just have to sink humanity’s teeming masses into a starving and enslaved hellhole using the excuse that it has to be done to Stop Trump.

    Comrades.

  3. John Constantine

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3dqsyXPkG3I

    Compare our first Australia Day lamb ad with the sodomy sausage sellabrations, the meatless political lectures and our current capitulation to vegynsys godless commo Stalinist grass and tofu munching.

    Comrades.

  4. Delta

    How much worse can it get?

    Well that’s an easy question for the people who wish to destroy our society:

    Listen to this video right through. Did you know that child porn has been legalised in Australia? It’s absolutely appalling and that’s being polite about what has been done by our politicians!

    Then read this story from today’s Australian. From misbehaving boys to violent men: the poisoning of male identity.

  5. The Dems want to impeach Trump because everything he is doing is right, and proving them wrong at the same time.

  6. sfw

    I remember Laffer saying something (this is pre Trump) that the next US president will be great because he will have to go through an exhaustive selection process to get the nomination. Seems he was on the mark, Hilary had no process and Trump had them all lined up against him and prevailed.

  7. Shy Ted

    You’d have to be stupid not to get this and follow suit. Enter ScoMo.

  8. Muddy

    It’s easy to see why they want to impeach him

    I think the intelligent among them know that impeachment will not happen, but it’s a case of the process being the punishment, rather than the outcome.

    I mentioned the Clinging Mist strategy a few weeks ago: it’s a second-best option when you cannot win in the short-term, and is designed to damage the long-term reputation or image of an individual or organisation. The idea is to make multiple accusations, and consistently attack over a prolonged period of time, regardless of the likelihood of the tactical success of each attempt. If successful, the effect will be that an opaque ‘mist’ of suspicion, distrust, anxiety and outrage clings to this individual, making it impossible to assess with accuracy this individual’s legacy.

    The beauty of this strategy is that it does not require central co-ordination, and many participants can contribute, making it appear that the layers of negativity are a genuine, organic response to the behaviour or values of the target.

    I think that they plan to wait until 2020 or 2024, and in the meantime, destroy any possibility that Trump’s legacy as POTUS will be able to be used by him or others in the future.

    (This is not to say that some participants do not genuinely believe they can have him impeached, but I do not think that is the primary driver).

  9. I mentioned the Clinging Mist strategy a few weeks ago: it’s a second-best option when you cannot win in the short-term, and is designed to damage the long-term reputation or image of an individual or organisation. The idea is to make multiple accusations, and consistently attack over a prolonged period of time, regardless of the likelihood of the tactical success of each attempt. If successful, the effect will be that an opaque ‘mist’ of suspicion, distrust, anxiety and outrage clings to this individual, making it impossible to assess with accuracy this individual’s legacy.

    Only that’s proven to be a failed strategy. World+Dog have been trying that on since before Trump became President and they keep failing.

  10. Muddy

    bemused.

    I think it’s too early to assess whether or not the strategy has failed. As I noted, it’s a long-term effort, the success of which will not be known until the Post-Trump Era dawns.

  11. mh

    The American worker could give all this up and vote for a return to the globalist era of US politics.

  12. mh

    The globalists want the American worker back on their knees.

    Billionaire Kochs: Shutdown Is ‘Golden Opportunity’ for Amnesty for Illegals

    The pro-mass immigration Koch brothers’ network of billionaire, donor class organizations is asking Congress to “seize” upon the government shutdown to pass a permanent amnesty for millions of illegal aliens.

    In a letter to congressional leaders, as well as President Trump, the Koch-funded Americans for Prosperity, the LIBRE Initiative, and Freedom Partners organizations say the shutdown of the federal government provides a “golden opportunity” to provide amnesty to at least 3.5 million illegal aliens enrolled and eligible for President Obama’s Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) program….
    …Corporate interests and the big business lobby have the most to gain from granting amnesty to DACA illegal aliens, as legalizing millions of low-skilled foreign workers would drag down wages for Americans, drive up profit margins for corporations, and leave U.S. taxpayers with the costs….

    https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2019/01/18/billionaire-kochs-shutdown-is-golden-opportunity-for-amnesty-for-illegals/

  13. Mak Siccar

    From The Oz this morning. Perhaps those Cats who understand this economic black magic might care to comment. The fact that A O-C is lauded should ring alarm bells. Prof Steve or Prof Sinc???

    Modern Monetary Theory: Who’ll be brave enough to try it?

    Photo

    US Democrat Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is a champion of Modern Monetary Theory

    By PHILIP ALDRICK
    THE TIMES
    11:17PM JANUARY 19, 2019NO COMMENTS
    In the past decade, the world has suffered two global crises: the financial disaster of 2008 and the eurozone sovereign debt crisis two years later. Policymakers responded with bailouts, cheap funding schemes, zero interest rates and quantitative easing. In one sense, the past ten years was a period of intense economic experimentation. In another, nothing has changed.

    Following previous crises, macroeconomic ideas were replaced. After the Second World War, Keynesian, under which governments spend to create demand and protect jobs, was ascendant. After the inflation-induced recessions in the 1970s, the big idea was monetarism, using interest rates and the money supply to keep prices under control.

    And now, after two existential crises? Nothing. The fundamental macroeconomic ideas have not changed. Labour and the Tories do battle on the scale of the deficit, like two old fools arguing who should pay for the last round long after the bar has closed. Beyond that, John McDonnell’s socialist revolution is pilfered from crumbling communist textbooks. It’s all a bit disappointing.

    A new idea is slowly gaining momentum, though, particularly in the United States, where the charismatic Democrat Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez has been championing it. The idea is modern monetary theory and, as with many new ideas, it is not actually that new. Its origins date back to 1993 and it even featured in the 2016 US election. Bernie Sanders’ economic adviser was Stephanie Kelton, a prominent advocate of MMT.

    At first glance, the theory seems barmy. As long as a government borrows in its own currency, it need never default because it can always print the money it needs. Described that way, MMT sounds like that other MMT, the magic money tree, or Jeremy Corbyn’s “People’s QE” – the kind of thing Weimar Germany and Zimbabwe tried with devastating inflationary consequences. But that’s because we’re looking through the wrong end of the telescope.

    Warren Mosler, a former banker and hedge fund manager, went back to basics when he was developing the idea. The challenges governments face are growth, unemployment and inflation. To achieve those goals today, central banks use rates to regulate the economy while governments manage the public finances.

    Mr Mosler and Ms Kelton look at the world differently. Running a budget deficit is not a sign of overspending, they say. Inflation is. Viewed though that lens, deficits look fine so long as inflation is under control. If inflation is low, unemployment high and the private sector is not picking up the slack, the government’s role is to create productive work through tax cuts or spending. The new jobs will create enough demand to drive up prices.

    But who finances the deficits? That’s where money-printing comes in. It is here that convention is flipped on its head. Under MMT, tax and spending decisions are taken to regulate the economy, ignoring the impact on the public finances. If inflation picks up, rates don’t budge (Mr Mosler would have them set at zero). Instead, taxes rise to suck demand out of the system. In doing so, the budget may move into surplus. The central bank’s role is simply to finance the deficit.

    Surely markets will hate this and punish governments with higher borrowing costs? Proponents reply that the government does not need to borrow from the market. When the state cuts income taxes, it creates more domestic savings. Those savings are exactly equal to the state’s additional borrowing. As a nation, one hand owes the other. The central bank only need mark the debt on the government’s ledger.

    The key here is to think of the state as a monopolist, not a household. A government that borrows in its own currency has a monopoly on the money supply so cannot run out and go bust. Foreign investors might lose money on their dollar assets, but the debt can always be paid. The model does not work for countries without their own currency, such as eurozone members. As they do not control their currency, they must live within their means and ultimately balance their books. They are not monetary monopolists, just households for the purposes of budget management.

    Although MMT has been jumped on by deficit-spending left-wingers, the theory is not intrinsically fiscally irresponsible. Mr Mosler claims to have developed the idea after a steam room session with arch-hawk Donald Rumsfeld, the former US defence secretary. JW Mason, an economist at the City University of New York, reckons it would lead to smaller budget deficits over the long term, provided politicians are bold enough to combat inflation with higher taxes.

    Ultimately, the theory reframes and simplifies our conception of the economy, drawing the focus on to the core priorities of employment and inflation. The deficit would no longer be an obstacle. There would be no tension between fiscal and monetary policy, just a single lever. Responsibility for economic management would fall to politicians, ending the outsourcing to technocrats that has provided legislators cover for so long. And there would no place for an independent central bank.

    In a way, MMT is nothing new. Japan’s national debt is 2.4 times the size of its economy, three times UK levels, but most is owed to Japanese pension funds and its money-printing central bank. In Britain, the 527 billion pounds of debt raised by the state between 2009 and 2012 was largely matched by the Bank of England’s 375 billion pounds of QE. Today, Donald Trump is blowing up the US deficit and driving up inflation in what looks like a practical demonstration of MMT.

    There, in a nutshell, is the problem. The theory states that President Trump should be raising taxes, not cutting them. But would politicians ever have the courage to raise taxes if domestic inflation is climbing, despite high unemployment? The whole reason central banks were given independence was because politicians cannot be trusted to make unpopular decisions.

    What MMT does prove, however , is that we will not run out of new ideas as long as we can describe the world in different ways. That, at least, is encouraging.

    Philip Aldrick is Economics Editor of The Times

  14. Tim Neilson

    Described that way, MMT sounds like that other MMT, the magic money tree, or Jeremy Corbyn’s “People’s QE” – the kind of thing Weimar Germany and Zimbabwe tried with devastating inflationary consequences. But that’s because we’re looking through the wrong end of the telescope.

    OK, so there won’t be detrimental inflation….

    Under MMT, tax and spending decisions are taken to regulate the economy, ignoring the impact on the public finances.

    Sounds ominous.

    If inflation picks up, rates don’t budge (Mr Mosler would have them set at zero). Instead, taxes rise to suck demand out of the system. </em

    OK, so no detrimental inflation, but if there is inflation this will be corrected by higher taxes. (FMD.)
    What happens if there's no inflation? Can that happen with a whole lot more newly printed money in circulation? Wasn't that part of the problem with the B Ark in the Hitchhikers' Guide series when they used leaves as a currency?

    Proponents reply that the government does not need to borrow from the market. When the state cuts income taxes, it creates more domestic savings.

    Only if people leave their money in the country (and leave it in the form of savings). BTW I thought that taxes might go up to counter inflation.

    Those savings are exactly equal to the state’s additional borrowing. As a nation, one hand owes the other. The central bank only need mark the debt on the government’s ledger.

    ??? The government has printed more money and has spent it. That’s not going to cause inflation because taxes can go up and depress the economy (well that last part is plausible), but taxes are also going to go down because that’s needed to somehow balance the books because less tax revenue and more borrowing will …

    Sorry I’ve lost it here. Obviously I’m just nowhere near as smart as Occasional-Cortex et hoc generis.

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