The problem with electric cars

The problem with electric cars is that they run on electricity. That is depicted as a feature but it becomes a bug when electric power is in short supply.

Consider the situation when we lose Liddell and another old power station or two.

Of course it would help to deindustrialize some more like South Australia. How many Aluminium smelters have we got to shed so we can revert to shipping ore overseas for other people to add value? It won’t help the planet if the CO2 comes from some other place but it will cost us bigtime.

Meanwhile the motor association in NSW, the NRMA is ecstatic about electric cars and the charging stations they are building here and there in the state.

A couple of years ago the buzz in China was a massive move towards to electric cars. Didn’t hear about that last year, maybe someone did the numbers and realised they need a few dozen more coal fired power stations before they go down that road.

The Chinese also pulled the subsidies on wind power. Maybe they saw the latest version of the 5 min video Why Wind Power Wont Work.

Some big calls in the comments. From stevem.

A quick calculation reveals that if every car were to convert to electric today, with no change in usage pattern with a further assumption that charging could be manages with “smart chargers” to spread the charge load evenly throughout the day we would need to double electricity generation.

From Russell.

The science around rechargeable battery technology is NOT settled. Too many confounding variables (just like CC) and you can’t make guarantees about battery life unless you control the recharging regime very closely. Otherwise you’re asking the customer for the cost of replacing an internal combustion engine every 5 years when they need to replace the EV batteries. So buying an EV means a commitment to no resale value when you upgrade.

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48 Responses to The problem with electric cars

  1. J-man

    … before they go down that road

    Perfect

  2. Fred

    The problem with electric cars is that they run on electricity.

    Wrong.

    The problem with electric cars is that they are crap.

    They lost out to the internal combustion engine 100 years ago because they were crap and nothing has changed.

  3. Eyrie

    The motoring associations were long ago taken over by idiot lefties who now spend their time making excuses for having cars at all.

  4. stevem

    We need 10 bowser service stations today when it takes a minute to fill. Does that mean 100 chargers when it takes 10 minutes?
    With the Porsche Taycan having a 350kW charger even a 10 point service station would be 3.5 MW which would require major distribution changes to each service station.
    A quick calulation reveals that if every car were to convert to electric today, with no change in usage pattern with a further assumption that charging could be manages with “smart chargers” to spread the charge load evenly throughout the day we would need to double electricity generation.
    As usual leftist greenies think nothing of the consequences of their thought bubbles.

  5. struth

    Electric cars are powered by coal.
    Electrical energy is just other energy transformed.
    In the case of electric cars it is other energy stored in battery packs , the proliferation of which, and the resultant supply network required, would do more harm to the environment than could be imagined, once they became the imposed vehicle for the masses and not just for the virtue signalling rich morons of today.

  6. RobK

    A more refined and clear presentation Rafe, well done.
    To me, the main reason electric cars are poison is the fact that they are being forced upon us. Let them earn their place by displaying usefulness etc. The co2 conjecture is insufficient reason to disassemble the present system by force, which is an expensive mistake.
    I happened to read the pap issued by the Di Caprio Foundation last night. It was full-on disaster. One of many faults that caught my eye was:

    Calculated average electricity-generation costs in 2015 (referring to full costs) were around 6  ct/kWh. In the 5.0  °C Scenario, these generation costs will increase, assuming rising CO2 emission costs in the future, until 2050, when they reach 10.6  ct/kWh. The generation costs will increase in the 2.0  °C and 1.5  °C Scenarios until 2030, when they will reach 9  ct/kWh, and then drop to 7  ct/kWh by 2050. In both alternative scenarios, the generation costs will be around 3.5  ct/kWh lower than in the 5.0  °C Scenario by 2050. Note that these estimates of generation costs do not take into account integration costs such as power grid expansion, storage and other load-balancing measures.

    Like so many of these spuikers, they fail to factor in that the cost of the system will become increasingly greater than the sum of the generators as the penetration of RE increases. (Ref. OECD report). Not withstanding that the increased cost of fossil fuel is due to tax imposts.
    Much of the DiCaprio report is creative guessing.

  7. Russell

    Our world is just so driven by fads. Methinks EVs had their hayday about 5 years ago when they were heralded to make a difference to CC and every car manufacturer decided they had to be woke. You know, the Gullett thing – you just can’t sell anything today with a reputable brand unless you speak some stupid “emotional” story. For car sales – it was caring for CC. Otherwise the interweb and MSM will give you a hiding and you will then surely alienate some segment of the market. Marketing gurus have no idea about the silent segments that don’t respond to inane surveys or for their biased focus groups. Mathematics is their biggest weakness.
    Here’s the inside poop. The science around rechargeable battery technology is NOT settled. Too many confounding variables (just like CC) and you can’t make guarantees about battery life unless you control the recharging regime very closely. Otherwise you’re asking the customer for the cost of replacing an internal combustion engine every 5 years when they need to replace the EV batteries. So buying an EV means a commitment to no resale value when you upgrade.

  8. Fat Tony

    Charging shouldn’t be a problem – after all, it’s intended that only the rich elite ruling class that will have private cars.

  9. Ellen of Tasmania

    There are so many flaws, inconsistencies and hypocrisies in the world of the greenies that you would think the majority of folk would wake up to all this. Whatever the real reasons are for the things they want and don’t want (for us), it has nothing to do with the environment as a whole, or the health and wellbeing of humans.

    Down here in Tassie, we’re getting bombarded with the ‘climate change caused these fires and there’ll be worse to come’ bilge. But it’s so easy to see they don’t mean it. They aren’t calling for clear felling to resume – which creates fire breaks and safe places for animals to shelter from fire. Not to mention better roads into the bush – wider and better maintained.

    All the Bob-Brown-idiots who campaigned against the Franklin River dam would quickly have forgotten it’s tidy little existence. It would have done far less damage to the ‘wilderness’ than these latest fires have done, and provided clean energy and a good water supply. Clean electricity for their beloved electric cars. These fires left us with air quality worse than Beijing, I am told. (Although this delightful morning rain is doing good work.)

    Wood – a wonderful, renewable resource, safer wilderness for the animals, clean electricity, water supply …. all ignored.

    No – MSM don’t mention any of that. They never challenge their green guests about it. They never point out all the hypocrisy of the private jets and many-homed believers off to yet another well-catered kill-the-plebs conference in pretty parts of the world.

    When will the blatant inconsistencies, lies and hypocrisy of these people finally reach into the people’s indoctrinated brains and we start to see a revolt?

    Rant over, thank you.

  10. Rafe Champion

    Try shouting out the window Ellen:)

    I see there were fires in Circular Head the other day. I grew up on Lower Scotchtown Road on the way from Smithton to Edith Creek Lileah. Nabageena and Trowutta. The nearest place with a football team and a railway station was Irishtown.

  11. OldOzzie

    My 2 year old Kogan Koar Powervault 18000mAH used to power my Samsung Note 3 for 3 days – now I am lucky for it to power the Samsung for a day -similarly the Samsung Note 3 new battery ability in keeping the mobile phone alive, has declined rapidly over a year.

    Zero-to-60 times are shorthand for what anybody buying a Porsche is supposed to care about. But with the all-electric Taycan due out later this year, Porsche AG executives are talking up a less-exhilarating metric: Getting to 60 miles (96.56km) of charge.

    Stepping into the world of electric cars is making even the most hallowed performance brands rethink how they market their vehicles, and Porsche is no exception. At peak, the Taycan will be able to add more than 60 miles of charge in four minutes, thanks to an 800V battery that can absorb fast-charging rates of up to 350kW.

    That’s quicker than Tesla owners can achieve at the company’s 120kW supercharging stations, which can bring batteries to about an 80% charge in roughly 30 minutes.

    meanwhile in the same article

    Charging infrastructure is a new perk for would-be buyers. Through a partnership with Electrify America, the charging-network company borne from Volkswagen AG’s dieselemissions scandal, Taycan owners will get three years of free charging at stations that’ll have a minimum of two 350kW chargers per site.

    While Electrify America announced last Friday that it was shutting down its fast chargers to investigate a potential safety issue involving a supplier’s liquid-cooled cables, Porsche said in an emailed statement that it’s confident the issue will be resolved before the launch of the Taycan later this year. And in addition to the network of 300 highway fast charging stations that are going to be either installed or under construction by July 1, another 120 Porsche dealerships will offer fast charging by early 2020.

    The Chevrolet Bolt EV comes with a card for ChargePoint stations, though the driver has to foot the bill

    Building long-distance charging infrastructure may not be entirely rational, since about 90% of EV charging happens at home. But that hasn’t stopped automakers from touting their charging offerings. Audi is giving away 1,000 free kWh with Electrify America for anyone buying a new E-Tron. General Motors Co’s Chevrolet Bolt EV comes with a card for ChargePoint stations, though the driver has to foot the bill.

  12. Joanna

    Lefties should live by their principles. A solar panel on top their EV should do the trick. May only get them 100 metres down the road, but their virtue will be signalling for all to see.

  13. Eyrie

    “With the Porsche Taycan having a 350kW charger even a 10 point service station would be 3.5 MW which would require major distribution changes to each service station.”
    No problem. I’m sure there are diesel generators that can provide that at the servo. 🙂
    The greenies would somehow excuse this because the car is electric. They cannot do physics, maths or engineering.
    There will likely be a good business driving around in a diesel truck with a large diesel generator on the back to charge electric cars that have run out of charge.
    Towing a trailer with a small Chonda generator on the back is another option.

  14. Anthony

    A Tesla model 3 is rated at 26 kWh per 100 miles according to US DOE. That is ~6.15km per kwh. According to the ABS, 73% of people travel less than 20km to work each day. Let’s assume its 30km for pickup/drop off kids at school, activities, going for lunch and dinner etc. So, most people might need 60km day.

    60km/6.15km per kwh = 9.75kwh per day.

    Your average household according to Red Energy is using 13.7kwh per day. So, for a single car household we are looking 13.7kwh + 9.75kwh = 23.45kwh per day. Admittedly as an upper limit.

    IIRC there are about 0.75 cars per person in Australia and 75% of those would be passenger cars. Population of Australia is 24.9 million so 24,900,000 x 0.75 x 0.75 x 9.75 kwh = 136,560,937kwh or 136.56Gwh per day. So, I’m guessing maybe you need ~2.5-3 equivalents of Hazelwood running around the clock assuming everyone is crazily driving 60km/day every day.

    Apologies, I haven’t double checked my calculations, so please point out errors.

  15. Eyrie

    Here’s the go on lithium batteries. If you keep them at 100% charge or close to that it shortens their life.
    Do not store them like this. Likewise do not store when nearly fully depleted. To maximise life do not ever fully charge and do not ever fully deplete. Store at 40% charge.
    By the time you worry about all this a tank of petrol looks really good.

  16. calli

    Electric cars are powered by coal.
    Electrical energy is just other energy transformed.

    Yes. On Monday, my friend (a greenie SJW and victim to severe TDS) was skiting about her wonderful new electric car. “It costs me nothing to run”, boasts she.

    This person votes.

  17. Roger

    …to spread the charge load evenly throughout the day we would need to double electricity generation.

    We’re gonna need more windmills.

  18. don coyote

    Does the NRMA still provide “free” vehicle electric power in NSW?

  19. OldOzzie

    Eyrie
    #2927396, posted on February 7, 2019 at 11:05 am

    Here’s the go on lithium batteries. If you keep them at 100% charge or close to that it shortens their life.
    Do not store them like this. Likewise do not store when nearly fully depleted. To maximise life do not ever fully charge and do not ever fully deplete. Store at 40% charge.

    By the time you worry about all this a tank of petrol looks really good.

    On my 4WD, which does not get out much – run 2 Optima AGM Bluetop D34 Marine Batteries trickled charged by 2 CTEK CT 3800 Automatic Smart Charger for AGM which keeps at correct voltage – 4WD gets taken for run every month

    Re Lithium Batteries

    For Lithium Batteries you would go with CTEK LITHIUM XS – 4WD Journo Mate uses it and is very happy.

    The Ctek LITHIUM XS is an advanced microprocessor controlled charger and maintainer specially designed for Lithium-Ion Phosphate (LiFePO4) batteries.

    The LITHIUM XS is specially designed for Lithium-Ion Phosphate (LiFePO4) batteries. With up to 5A of charge current available, it can charge LiFePO4 batteries from 5Ah to 60Ah and maintain up to 120Ah. It’s easy to use – just connect it and charging starts immediately. There’s no need to disconnect your battery and any low voltage protection electronics will be reset automatically. The LITHIUM XS is a ‘connect and forget’ charger with 8 charging steps, a testing sequence that tells you if the battery can take and retain the charge, a unique maximisation step to restore full capacity and patented maintenance charging for maximum performance, even after months of inactivity.

  20. OldOzzie

    In the meantime

    The 2020 Ford Super Duty Gets a Giant 7.3-Liter Gasoline V8

    If you want a bigger engine in a brand-new production vehicle, you’re gonna have to buy a Bugatti.

  21. Lutz

    Batteries have a well known problem with cold weather, which was just rammed home again in Chicago. Considering the world will be cooling soon judging by the sunspot scenario, e-vehicles will not be on my horizon.

  22. The BigBlueCat

    calli
    #2927399, posted on February 7, 2019 at 11:09 am
    Electric cars are powered by coal.
    Electrical energy is just other energy transformed.

    Yes. On Monday, my friend (a greenie SJW and victim to severe TDS) was skiting about her wonderful new electric car. “It costs me nothing to run”, boasts she.

    This person votes.

    There is dumb, and there is stupid. Your friend is the latter. But maybe she is stealing the electricity from her neighbour – an extension cord running over the fence maybe? Still stupid. Does she realise her new electric car cost her much more than an equivalent internal combustion engined car? And that she’ll never recover the cost differential?

    But she’s saving the planet, right? In her mind at least …. but externally she is virtue signalling a dubious virtue.

    We need to go nuclear … not just on the asshats but in terms of power generation.

  23. Speedbox

    There are a whole range of issues (social, economic, supply, range anxiety, taxation, recharge, battery replacement/disposal etc) associated with electric cars. But, you will probably be driving one in less than 20 years.

    Collectively, the manufacturers (think Ford, GM, Daimler, Toyota, VW, Mazda, Hyundai, Honda, Fiat, BMW, Mitsubishi, Renault, Nissan, Volvo……..) are spending hundreds of billions on design and development.

    For example, Audi recently announced it is drawing forward 14 billion euros (about $AU22B) to be used by 2023 to fast-track its electric car production. That’s about one-third of the company’s total expenditure for the next five years. But, Audi’s investment is just a fraction of the greater Volkswagen Group’s total electric car development budget — VW will spend about 44 billion euros ($AU69B) over the next five years. Mercedes-Benz is tipping more than 10 billion euros ($AU16B) into its electric car program in the coming few years. These examples are the tip of the iceberg.

    Do you imagine that the manufacturers are spending this money without assurance of ROI?

    By 2025, there will be well over 100 fully electric models from the major manufacturers with that number of models increasing apace. For the manufacturers, this is like the introduction of the motor car all over again – literally every ICE car on the planet will have to be replaced and the overwhelming majority will occur no later than 2040/5 due to the banning of the sale of new diesel and petrol cars.

    As time passes, Governments will impose punishing taxes as the ICE vehicles age to encourage change-over to electric. (Part of the push to electric is the increasingly punitive vehicle emission standards – linked to, you guessed it – climate change).

    And its not just the car manufacturers who have committed – Royal Dutch Shell recently announced financial backing of Greenlots (USA company that makes chargers) which follows Shell’s acquisition of Newmotion (USA – chargers) and Ample (USA – battery swap). Repsol are deeply involved in charger technology in Europe whist the Volkswagen Group has put aside rivalries and joined Mercedes-Benz, BMW and Ford to build the Ionity network of ultra-fast chargers.

    A report by McKinsey & Co (2018) looked at the four ACES trend — Autonomous driving, Connectivity, Electrification, and Smart mobility and the results of their global survey and analysis confirm that those elements will transform the way the vehicle industry and consumers view ‘mobility’. And who are most concerned with these four ACES? People who are known as Pacesetters: Young, urban, tech smart, and who consider the differing mobility options.

    Do you see my point? It doesn’t matter whether you agree with the concept of electric vehicles or not; it doesn’t matter about any logical warnings or concerns you may offer; it doesn’t matter how ‘invested’ you may be with the ICE or resistant to EV change.

    The fundamental decision to adopt EV (allowing transition via HEV if required) by global entities, specifically the UN, the EU and other individual (non EU) national governments have already been made. The Governments of the world are on-board with this. Whether you like it or not.

  24. Iva Right

    The NRMA jusmps on every lefty virtue signalling cause. Bit like Qantas, they think that if they present this garbage dressed up with bells and whistles in their silly little magazine people will actually believe it. I use their road service and am way in front because I love very old, very big, gas guzzling cars that tend to break down and require their generous remote rescue service. Have used it four times and each time was over $1500 with the best being slightly over the $3000 limit. Let the virtue signalling continue!

  25. Nob

    You’ll know when you’re happy
    to get an EV ambulance
    to a solar-powered hospital

    you’ll know when you’re happy
    to hear that an electric helicopter
    is coming to rescue you
    you’ll know.

  26. Fat Tony

    Speedbox
    #2927457, posted on February 7, 2019 at 12:23 pm
    The fundamental decision to adopt EV (allowing transition via HEV if required) by global entities, specifically the UN, the EU and other individual (non EU) national governments have already been made. The Governments of the world are on-board with this. Whether you like it or not.

    Good to see who our governments are actually working for….

    And private car ownership will be restricted to the rich elite ruling class.

  27. Speedbox

    to hear that an electric helicopter is coming to rescue you

    Sikorsky announced their electric helicopter way back in 2010. Its called the Firefly. Small, pilot only, very limited range.

    Electric aircraft present some obvious problematic issues – it will take a long time for them to be relatively commonplace.

    But, the ‘raison d’etre’ for electric aircraft is much less than cars – at least in the view of the UN and the Greenies – so research and development will be much slower.

  28. Speedbox

    Good to see who our governments are actually working for….

    Fat Tony – you’ve posted some good stuff in the past so I know you’re not an idiot. Therefore, I have no hesitation saying that you know the answer to your own comment.

  29. Fibro

    Observing that the ‘smart’ money is waking up to the sham with prices of EV battery materials all in free fall, particularly cobalt, despite supply issues out of the DRC and the so called massive EV growth.
    http://www.infomine.com/investment/metal-prices/cobalt/1-year/

  30. Myrddin Seren

    This

    Charging shouldn’t be a problem – after all, it’s intended that only the rich elite ruling class that will have private cars.

    And this

    And private car ownership will be restricted to the rich elite ruling class.

    Everything else follows from this.

    #NewAristocracy

  31. Nob

    EV subsidies are probably preventing better alternatives to ICE vehicles emerging.

  32. Fat Tony

    Speedbox – it saddens me to see where the world is headed, when the future should have been so much better for everyone. When the USSR collapsed, I was actually optimistic about what lay ahead . Not any more.

    The greed and power-lust of a few will cause untold misery for billions.

  33. Speedbox

    EV subsidies are probably preventing better alternatives to ICE vehicles emerging.

    Many countries (about 50 at present) offer incentives to buy an EV. In some cases, it is as much as €10,000 but they vary considerably. Others offer personal tax deductions, price caps on EV’s; credits for scrapping (not selling) your old ICE vehicle, fines for drivers using cars more than 20 years old in/near major cities…..

    On the other hand, new laws in the EU identify ICE vehicles by their emissions and the annual registration tax will increase if your car is a designated ‘high polluter’. This weapon will be used more and more as time passes and the definition of high polluter will be expanded. Eventually, even those little SMART cars or the VW UP will be evil machines spewing their deadly pollutants across the country!

    You may recall that the ‘yellow vest’ protests in France originally started over new taxes on diesel. Well, Frenchie, get over it ‘cos that’s just the beginning. Macron was just being over-eager but the changes will be applied one way or another as France has already committed to banning new petrol/diesel car sales by 2030.

  34. The BigBlueCat

    Do you see my point? It doesn’t matter whether you agree with the concept of electric vehicles or not; it doesn’t matter about any logical warnings or concerns you may offer; it doesn’t matter how ‘invested’ you may be with the ICE or resistant to EV change.

    The fundamental decision to adopt EV (allowing transition via HEV if required) by global entities, specifically the UN, the EU and other individual (non EU) national governments have already been made. The Governments of the world are on-board with this. Whether you like it or not.

    It’s not as though EV’s are a new thing (they’re not) or they actually provide a solution other than transit (and virtue signalling). I personally have no objection to EV’s per se (other than the economics), but what I object to is having them foisted upon us and removing our freedom to choose. EV cars and electric motorbikes I’m sure are great fun to “operate”, and there will even be sports variants of these. But should they be our only option, especially if the science (of CAGW) isn’t really proven at all?

    But the decision of non-elected bureaucrats is what grinds my gears – these very same people flying many thousands of km per year, getting carted around (and owning) the very vehicles they don’t want you to have because “carbon”, why blindly ignoring how much carbon goes into the process of creating the vehicles they insist everyone must have really is too much. Talk to me when EV’s are competitively priced and affordable.

    Many countries (about 50 at present) offer incentives to buy an EV. In some cases, it is as much as €10,000 but they vary considerably. Others offer personal tax deductions, price caps on EV’s; credits for scrapping (not selling) your old ICE vehicle, fines for drivers using cars more than 20 years old in/near major cities…..

    On the other hand, new laws in the EU identify ICE vehicles by their emissions and the annual registration tax will increase if your car is a designated ‘high polluter’. This weapon will be used more and more as time passes and the definition of high polluter will be expanded. Eventually, even those little SMART cars or the VW UP will be evil machines spewing their deadly pollutants across the country!

    Norway subsidises the purchase price of Teslas, for instance – I think they feel guilty because of their North Sea oil reserves.

    But we’ll be bludgeoned (economically) into taking EV’s rather then being led by EV’s being a better vehicle than the internal combustion engined variety. These buggers are so hot-to-trot spending other people’s money it is surely tragic. But if they are going to tax us harder, then I’ll have no regrets in taking tax deductions, energy incentives if I come out in an economically better position. Of course, I won’t, but why should I make it easy for them ….

    But with electricity prices sky-rocketing due to many factors (renewables, sale of poles/wires to China, closure of coal power stations, etc) then surely the economic benefit of EV’s from an operating standpoint is being eroded. High entry cost, cost of electricity increasing, cost recycling of batteries, mining of rare earth materials for EV’s, etc … do we really want EV’s for everyone?

  35. yarpos

    I think EVs have a place, I think solar and wind have a role to play in delivering power in some scenarios.

    None of the three are mainstream or belong in the mainstream for vehicle transport or energy delivery. The transition to EVs is the same as the transition to renewable energy, it only exists in the deluded minds of the rainbows and unicorns people. How long have we been talking about these things? any summary of both those global markets shows those technologies to be rounding errors in penetration. If they were half as good as hyped they would be ubiquitous.

    I think are past the peak of expectations and entering the trough of disillusionment.

  36. Speedbox

    The transition to EVs is the same as the transition to renewable energy, it only exists in the deluded minds of the rainbows and unicorns people.

    Nope. They exist on the balance sheet of many multi-national companies and countless minnows who are spending hundreds of billions of dollars on development; they exist is legislation enacted by dozens of countries including 17 of which have already legislated a ban on the sale of new petrol/diesel cars beginning from 2030 (most from 2040).

    So don’t be childish and refer to unicorns and rainbows – look out into the real world.

    How long have we been talking about these things? any summary of both those global markets shows those technologies to be rounding errors in penetration. If they were half as good as hyped they would be ubiquitous.

    Sure, global market penetration of EV’s is currently pathetic but growth continues as the number of models and driving range increases whilst vehicle purchase prices reduce. Remember that there are very few different models available at present. But, over 408,000 vehicles were sold in the EU and 360,000 in the US in 2018. Both markets showed substantial growth (USA up 81% on 2017). But, total sales are tiny by comparison to the total market. There are pockets of exceptional growth – in Norway, 1 in 3 cars sold is an EV. (over one million EV’s were sold in China in 2018 but that’s a different story).

    Look around you. Did you seriously think that early EV cars were all that was coming? They were merely test-beds, mules for establishing base lines for weight, performance, range…..

    The BigBlueCat
    #2927572, posted on February 7, 2019 at 2:28 pm

    It’s not as though EV’s are a new thing (they’re not) or they actually provide a solution other than transit (and virtue signalling). I personally have no objection to EV’s per se (other than the economics), but what I object to is having them foisted upon us and removing our freedom to choose.

    I agree. I am also ambivalent to EV’s. I have no agenda here – I am merely pointing out that the decisions have already been made (on your behalf) about the transition to EV’s.

    If you will allow me to mix my metaphors – I am not reading the tea leaves, I am following the bread crumbs. And they are not crumbs so much as bloody huge loaves of bread. In this tiny irrelevant backwater on the far side of the globe, we are substantially insulated from what’s happening in Europe and the USA – unless we go looking for information.

    And in the world of EV’s, the sheer volume of information, billions in investment, UN, EU and other Government press releases and assorted media reports (mostly not published in Australia) can only lead to one conclusion! Your opinion/approval was not sought nor is it required. The ‘big decisions’ were made years ago.

  37. stevem

    I’m not at all convinced that the rush to EVs will occur as legislated.

    I think there are too many practical problems in the recharging infrastructure that cannot be resolved by 2030. There are massive generation and distribution problems that have been glossed over by those with vested interests. The move to “renewables” has reduced the excess capacity in electricity networks the world over. As the penetration of EVs grows these problems will become both obvious and insurmountable in the time frames legislated. There will be much gnashing of teeth and finger pointing at evil electricity companies and the timelines will slip.
    In order to appease the climate gods the dates for EVs will slip and be replaced with laws mandating something like 600cc hybrids the size of a Fiat 500 instead. After a few years of these abominations everybody will eagerly anticipating EVs.

    The other aspect that has been touched upon several times in this thread is the abolition of private automobile ownership. The GoGet model of car usage is on the increase with car companies like Porsche, Mercedes and Volvo having shared rental agreements rather than traditional ownership.

  38. Michael L

    “Meanwhile the motor association in NSW, the NRMA is ecstatic about electric cars and the charging stations they are building here and there in the state.”
    They never quite say in their magazine whether the charger is charged!
    From last year the NRMA board gained the right to spend money it does not have – borrow.
    Apart from flinging small change on charging stations, it is buying discarded accommodation properties and of all things, passenger boats at a rate of knots. Empire building without any shareholders to check – a “mutual” organization, which is all power to the ruling clique.

  39. Speedbox

    I think there are too many practical problems in the recharging infrastructure that cannot be resolved by 2030.

    Yep. France and Norway (to name two) are being very aggressive but no more so than Copenhagen which has banned diesel cars from now in the CBD, Rome will from 2024, Athens, Paris Madrid from 2025, India, Ireland, Israel from 2030. The UK is going for an outright petrol/diesel ban from 2050 whilst Californians will not be able to register their new petrol (or diesel) car from 2040 in that State. (Trump wants to overturn the Californian legislation).

    There are a litany of practical problems with all this – as you correctly point out – and only time will tell, but that is the state of the game at the moment.

  40. Nob

    Norway, 1 in 3 cars sold is an EV

    And 2 out of 3 of those are second cars to ICEs.

    Rome will from 2024, Athens, Paris Madrid from 2025, India, Ireland, Israel from 2030. The UK is going for an outright petrol/diesel ban from 2050 whilst Californians will not be able to register their new petrol (or diesel) car from 2040 in that State.

    That’s one “has” and a lot of “will”. As you say, legislation can be overturned.

  41. faceache

    Finally decided on my epitaph…..”Drove a gas guzzler all my life”

  42. Mark M

    Winter Is Wreaking Havoc On Electric Vehicles

    https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-02-03/winter-wreaking-havoc-electric-vehicles

    Melbourne to Sydney in 5 days using coal power overnight.

    They’re gonna have to do better than that:

    Harley-Davidson reveals electric Livewire motorcycle

    https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/motoring/hitech/harleydavidson-reveals-electric-livewire-motorcycle/news-story/f4a451a88f62bb34437cdb018627d1a5

  43. Speedbox

    That’s one “has” and a lot of “will”. As you say, legislation can be overturned.

    And that’s a very interesting point. Only where the social climate is willing, such as Norway and Sweden (and the lunatics in California), are the population still fully behind decisions taken some years ago.

    Alternatively, look at France and the recent riots over increased taxes on diesel. As I said up thread, the Frenchies are in for a shock. One of the issues of course is politicians ‘today’ pledging/legislating a significant social change to take place in, say, 20 years from now.

    But I still believe the die is cast. The EU, the UN, numerous very powerful multi-nationals extending beyond the vehicle manufacturers, hundreds of billions of dollars, many Governments wholeheartedly behind it (if somewhat hesitant)…….follow the money. The timing might change but the whole thing has gone too far now to turn back.

  44. duncanm

    The other problem is there’s not enough cobalt to go around to make all the batteries needed.

    A new/ modified battery technology is required.

  45. Nob

    Only where the social climate is willing, such as Norway and Sweden

    I’m in western Norway .
    Sure there are a lot of EVs and charging stations but still <10% of total.

    The subsidies are supposed to scale down soon.

    Oslo is complaining about surge in congestion.
    Why? Because a large proportion of the EVs in the urban area are not replacing ICEs but are additional vehicles for people who for short urban trips took public transport, bicycle or walked before.

  46. Nob

    Slightly different topic, but on bicycles is same for Copenhagen, Amsterdam and London, Melbourne and Perth – you name it.

    Many, most in some cities, of the cyclists are not replacing car journeys since they are people who would be taking public transport and walking otherwise.

    Instead they are clogging up traffic and adding to congestion.
    Net effect, more emissions, not less.
    Thanks to rapid advances in ICE vehicle technology more emissions is less polluting than ever.

  47. OldOzzie

    Dispelling the Myths of China’s EV Market

    It’s too soon to call a peak on traditional vehicles, but the potential for overall growth is in question. And just how much of that growth will be electric?

    Our Bloomberg NEF colleagues often say that China is “half of everything,” such as aluminum, steel and copper consumption. For the electric vehicle sector, China is at least half of everything, if not far more, in three key areas: It represents 76 percent of all commissioned lithium-ion battery manufacturing capacity; logged 60 percent of global EV sales in fourth-quarter 2018; and held 50 percent of global public vehicle-charging infrastructure as of the end of 2018.

    That helps explain just how large China is as an electric vehicle market, but a number of myths and misconceptions still drive much of the perception of the country’s role in electric transportation. Let’s dispel some of them

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