Budget 2019

Receipts and Payments as % GDP

 

 

Josh Frydenberg kept emphasising “without raising taxes”. Well. Not quite. Spending remains above the long-term average of spending and Receipts as a % of GDP is well above, well above, the long term average. The thing to remember is that the Coalition government has already increased taxes on (multinational) business and already raised our superannuation. Tonight we heard they’re not going to raid our super again.  They plan to raise more revenue from business. The dashed lines below are the average figures for Receipts (blue) and Payments (red).

Remember – a surplus next year. Just like Wayne Swan. Debt to be paid off by 2030. SO they are planning to fund their spending by paying down the debt slowly.

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58 Responses to Budget 2019

  1. Elle

    Time for a vodka and soda. Maybe two or three for budget night. 😘

  2. Procrustes

    Taxes are still too high.

    A decent government would have tax as a share of GDP below 20%

  3. Elle

    Buzz word/theme – Australia is back on track.

  4. Procrustes

    Ooh. Time to start a small business.

  5. Confused Old Misfit

    Some of us are sufficiently indigent as to be able to avoid the rapacious claws of federal income tax.
    That instant asset write off would have been handy 12 years ago. 🙂

  6. jupes

    Is there anything more boring than the release of a government budget?

  7. Percy Popinjay

    In the meantime, my latest NSW rego/ctp bill has just arrived – $750, not including the pink slip.

    Thanks, fuckwits – low taxes 4 evah! 😡

  8. Procrustes

    Stoopid on infrastructure.

    Why are the Feds involved in state matters like congestion and rail. States should do that. Heck, even private sector should do more of that.

  9. Confused Old Misfit

    Sweet Jesus!
    The “Fast Rail Furphy” is alive and well!
    Heaven forfend.

  10. Percy Popinjay

    Is there anything more boring than the release of a government budget?

    Yes, this lacklustre numpty delivering it.

  11. Sinclair Davidson

    Josh sounding like Churchill in places.

    Unfortunately he is spending, spending, spending.

  12. Elle

    A document filled with sweetners.
    Bittersweet.

  13. Percy Popinjay

    We will never see another federal budget surplus in our lifetimes, despite the wombat’s preposterous bloviating this evening.

  14. Procrustes

    A national disasters fund is moronic.

    Most disasters should be addressed by state and local government. When their capacity is overcome the Feds should find the money to help them. A Fund is just a milk cow so that the Feds get in too early and could make matters worse. It might get raided to do prevention measures – which the owners of the assets should do.

    So there goes another $3.9 billion wasted.

  15. Fleeced

    Surplus next year. This time we mean it.

    It’s always next year.

  16. Leigh Lowe

    Is there anything more boring than the release of a government budget?

    Is there anything more boring than the release of a budget by a bunch of losers who will be in opposition before Essendon win another game?

  17. Procrustes

    So they are throwing money at pre school.

    Would it not be better to tear up the stupid regulation of Julia Gillard that led to ridiculous child / career ratios, credentialism and a host of other costs?

    Come on Libs, think outside the box for solutions that involve less government

  18. Confused Old Misfit

    Tonight I announce a $100 million Environment Restoration Fund to deliver large-scale environmental projects.
    Protecting the habitats of our threatened species, our coasts, our waterways and cleaning up waste.
    It will complement a new Communities Environment Program, providing smaller grants for projects that target local community priorities.

    That part of his environment policy I can get behind.
    But the 3.5B on emission reduction is a complete waste.

  19. Percy Popinjay

    So many people lead lives of quiet desperation …

    If they had to listen to cretins like you, it would be entirely understandable.

  20. Procrustes

    Sinc, I agree re spending, spending, spending.

    They’ve announced a 1% of GDP surplus going forward.

    I want a 0% of GDP surplus. I want that 1% back in the hands of taxpayers.

  21. Percy Popinjay

    I want a 0% of GDP surplus. I want that 1% back in the hands of taxpayers.

    Yes, let’s leave labor and the greenfilth to pay off that half trillion plus debt the squandermonkeys happily ran up.

  22. Leigh Lowe

    Sweet Jesus!
    The “Fast Rail Furphy” is alive and well!
    Heaven forfend.

    The most efficient interstate transport policy would be to grant permits for second airports in every capital (specifically excluding the first airport operator from the deal *), grant permits for road and rail corridors to both airports (more competition) and let the private sector go to it.
    .
    * That thump you heard was JC collapsing to the floor.

  23. DtjW

    Solemn voices, Mr Speaker, for our indigenous, drug afflicted and struggling residential market. Hear, Hear!

  24. Fleeced

    The “Fast Rail Furphy” is alive and well!

    I still think we should pour money into a Very Fast Road.

  25. Procrustes

    You saw through my plan PercyPopinjay, but I think you get my point. A surplus is an irrelevancy if you don’t actually lower the size of government.

  26. Percy Popinjay

    Thank goodness that’s over. What a litany of criminal waste.

  27. Leigh Lowe

    Josh sounding like Churchill in places.

    Unfortunately he is spending, spending, spending.

    We shall go on to the end. We shall spend by the barrow-load, we shall spend on the seas and oceans like drunken sailors, we shall spend with growing confidence and growing strength in the air, we shall defend our island, whatever the cost of Pyne’s submarines may be. We shall spend on the beaches, we shall spend on the landing grounds, we shall spend in the fields and in the streets, we shall spend in the hills; we shall never stop splashing the cash up against the walls of this septic isle …

  28. Confused Old Misfit

    Leigh Lowe
    #2978003, posted on April 2, 2019 at 8:04 pm
    What are you going to do with the second airport? Only Sydney has the traffic levels that warrant it.
    It didn’t work in Montreal. Mirabel is basically an underused freight depot.
    And who is going to use a rail link to an airport?
    Rail is good for heavy and bulk freight but I don’t think you can wean people away from their cars.

  29. Tom

    You won’t see Trumpian growth in Australia until government spending is reined in to under 2.1% of GDP.

    And let’s forget this crap about “net” debt. I want to see the gross government debt number — which the Liars will pay no attention to as gross debt heads for $1 billion+.

  30. Procrustes

    Tom, I believe in small government but 2.1% of GDP (ie bigger than a decline of 20 percentage points) seems to be a big ask.

  31. stackja

    2/04/2019
    The Australian Taxpayers’ Alliance, a 75,000+ member grassroots advocacy group representing the nation’s taxpayers, today commended the Morrison government for delivering a budget surplus and committing to increased tax relief, but urged caution against runaway pre-election spending set to be financed by hardworking taxpayers.

    MEDIA RELEASE: Taxpayers welcome pre-election relief, but demand the full story

    $2 billion climate fund ripoff will make zero difference to the environment, all at taxpayers’ expense

    $17 billion university funding with no guarantee of better outcomes or employable graduates

    $2 billion Victorian fast rail project to deliver immense loss for taxpayers

    Modest income tax relief for small and medium income earners, most of it scheduled for years into the future

    Budget surpluses and paying down debt are welcome, but should come with cuts to overspending, not taking more money out of our pockets

    Small businesses to receive welcome tax relief

    “Tax breaks for Australian small businesses, an extra $55 a year in the pockets of those earning less than $37,000, and up to $547 more a year for those earning between $37,000 and $126,000 through expanding planned tax offsets, are well-earned rewards for hardworking Australians.” Said Satya Marar, ATA Director of Policy. “But this isn’t the full story.

    “The ratio of taxes paid to household incomes continues to climb. A failure to permanently index income tax brackets to inflation each year also means that millions of us are likely to pay more in the future with no increase in our real incomes. Much of the planned relief is scheduled for years into the future under unpredictable political conditions, premised on optimistic predictions about real wage growth and global economic growth which is already slowing down. Treasurer Frydenberg must bring tax relief for individuals and businesses even further forward to support his claim that the coalition are a low-taxing government.

    “The government’s commitment to keep tax as a portion of GDP under 23.8 percent is also set to fail by 2020-21 under their own projections of tax revenue to be accrued. This figure is the highest ratio of tax to GDP since right before the Global Financial Crisis.

    “Taxpayers also deserve better than the government’s practice of describing all new infrastructure spending, set to rise to $100 billion from $75 billion committed last year, as an equity investment regardless of profitability. The National Broadband Network keeps punishing taxpayers with losses, and the government’s $2 billion Victorian fast-rail project is set for similar results.

    “Fast-rail rarely generates a return even in countries with greater regional population densities than Australia. These unprofitable spending programs should be described as they are- a taxpayer-funded sunk cost, rather than a feel-good ‘investment’ which will only deliver returns for politicians seeking re-election who aren’t spending their own money.

    “Similarly, $17 billion for our universities should come with conditions ensuring that money goes where it’s needed. This is unlikely to be the case while university rankings and funding remains largely divorced from graduate employment outcomes and teaching quality.

    “Furthermore, sinking $2 billion into the ironically-named ‘climate solutions fund’ when Dr. Alan Finkel admits that eliminating all of Australia’s 1.3 percent contribution to greenhouse gas emissions will not significantly impact climate change, amounts to throwing ice cubes into a volcano at taxpayers’ expense.

    “Today’s budget has some good news for taxpayers. However, reeling in spending remains crucial. The government’s plan to pay down nearly $600 billion in debt, over $40,000 per household, through rising tax takings, lets down those of us who work hard and pay our taxes.”

    Warm Regards,

    Satya Marar
    Director of Policy
    Australian Taxpayers’ Alliance (ATA)

  32. Roger

    The government’s plan to pay down nearly $600 billion in debt, over $40,000 per household, through rising tax takings, lets down those of us who work hard and pay our taxes.

    Satya Marar
    Director of Policy
    Australian Taxpayers’ Alliance (ATA)

    Net tax payers need to form their own political party.

    The ATA would be a good basis for it.

  33. It’s Remarkable

    None of what Josh announced is worth a squirt. They are highly unlikely to be in government to legislate any of this budget, so it is really a ‘these are our promises, trust us, and if you elect us, we might try and legislate some of this stuff, but the senate will stop much of it…’
    All piss and wind really.

  34. Tom

    Procrustes, at the current 2.5-2.6% of GDP, the Stupid.Fucking.Liberals have merely maintained the stellar trajectory of government spending set by the Liars in 2007-2013. I would like to look at the numbers in more detail, but the increase in the confiscation of private wealth between 2007 and 2013 — which the Liberals have not only maintained but increased — was $300 billion p.a.+. That is the extra money that the economy is now expected to fork out per annum — a $300 billion+ effective annual tax. Out of control state and federal government spending in the past decade is a giant brake on the economy — a classic recipe for recession. And we have been pretending it isn’t.
    Unless there is a brake on government spending growth we have no hope of ever again achieving 3%+ GDP growth. That doesn’t necessarily mean deep government spending cuts.

  35. Procrustes

    The commentators – on Sky for instance – seem to be missing a big point. They keep saying back in Black is still next FY, people have to take that on faith.

    But no one seems alive to the issue that as soon as the election is announced Treasury and Finance have to produce a PEFO within a short period after the election is called. Surely the Govt can’t be as silly as setting up a budget based on parameters from which Treasury and Finance would diverge.

  36. Procrustes

    Tom – I think we are talking at cross purposes. You seem to be referring to surplus to GDP rather than expenditure as a share of GDP.

  37. Leigh Lowe

    Confused Old Misfit

    #2978020, posted on April 2, 2019 at 8:13 pm

    Leigh Lowe
    #2978003, posted on April 2, 2019 at 8:04 pm
    What are you going to do with the second airport? Only Sydney has the traffic levels that warrant it.

    It is way more effective than throwing hundreds of billions at Very Farce Rail. And let the private sector work it out. With projected population growth I will bet second airport viability for Melbourne and Brisbane is about ten years away.

    And who is going to use a rail link to an airport?

    A proper dedicated airport rail link exists in most major cities and we use them over road all the time.
    The point is, the rail link provides competition for cars, parking and taxis.
    Do you think people would pay 50 bucks for overnight parking if a train fare from city to airport was $15 – $20?

  38. Oh come on

    I was shocked today – I realised I couldn’t name the treasurer off the top of my head. Just don’t give a shit about Oz politics anymore.

  39. stackja

    Roger – Menzies put together many groups to form Liberal Party.
    Leadership needed.

  40. bollux

    Are we winding back the antique submarine thingy- Nah
    Are we taking back the Greens $444 million slush fund AKA the Great Barrier Reef Rort – Nah
    Are we changing any of the RGR governments nonsense – Nah
    Are we changing the Educasun Revolushon – Nah
    Are we exiting the latest Green Socialist Paris bullshit – Nah
    What are we doing – not enough to make me want to vote for you.
    See you Scott/Josh

  41. candy

    A budget to get them over the line on voting day by bits of money to here, there and everywhere. Might work.

    Still the problems of Australia are there, as bollux above outlined above.

    Bill Shorten’s reply will be interesting. How much more will he offer to get them over the line, will he appeal directly to women and the young.

  42. Jock

    Id ya all think this was bad, wait till you see the festering rancid pile of excretia flung at us on Thursday by Commisar Bowen.

  43. Is there anything more boring than the release of a government budget?

    Boring? I think that was meant to say terrifying.

    Taxes are still too high.

    A decent government would have tax as a share of GDP below 20%

    I agree, and with balanced budgets and paying off the debt.

    And let’s forget this crap about “net” debt. I want to see the gross government debt number — which the Liars will pay no attention to as gross debt heads for $1 billion+.

    That is true and it is truly terrifying.

    BTW Tom are you talking about growth in spending otherwise?

  44. MatrixTransform

    We are also investing $62 million to boost literacy, numeracy and digital skills.

    not very post-modern or intersectional.

    1800RESPECT

    brilliant

    25% corp tax rate for small business

    ….you better, or I’m gonna start sacking people.

    and Bill, sorry I mean Mr Shortchange … guess what? yeah, Im gonna start sacking people.

    just saying

  45. Confused Old Misfit

    It is way more effective than throwing hundreds of billions at Very Farce Rail.

    That I would agree with.

    I will bet second airport viability for Melbourne and Brisbane is about ten years away.

    If I thought I’d live long enough to collect. I’d tke you up on that!

    Do you think people would pay 50 bucks for overnight parking if a train fare from city to airport was $15 – $20?

    Are there that many people who fly anf spend one night at their destination?
    I’m thinking families with maximum baggage, not your business traveler with a briefcase and suit bag.
    Mom & Dad & 4 suitcases on a train? I don’t see it.

  46. jupes

    Are we winding back the antique submarine thingy- Nah
    Are we taking back the Greens $444 million slush fund AKA the Great Barrier Reef Rort – Nah
    Are we changing any of the RGR governments nonsense – Nah
    Are we changing the Educasun Revolushon – Nah
    Are we exiting the latest Green Socialist Paris bullshit – Nah

    Are we doing anything worthwhile about immigration – Nah (except spending more money monitoring them)
    Are we doing anything about the ABC – Nah (except guarantee them funding)

  47. wal1957

    From all the comments I have read so far I think the overall consensus is ‘stuff ’em’!

    Baseball bats are at the ready.

  48. PeteD

    The last few budgets cut actual rates of tax, and then raised higher percentages of revenue than that raised by higher tax rates.

    Labor last time increased tax rates and found revenues fall short of projections.

    If only someone in Treasury had known about the Laffer Curve.

  49. PeteD

    Same story applies for the “High Tax” period from 2001-2008.

    Cut rates (remember 49% after $50k back in 1999), and see revenue increase.

  50. Cynic of Ayr

    Confused Old Misfit
    #2977988, posted on April 2, 2019 at 7:58 pm
    Tonight I announce a $100 million Environment Restoration Fund to deliver large-scale environmental projects.
    Protecting the habitats of our threatened species, our coasts, our waterways and cleaning up waste.
    It will complement a new Communities Environment Program, providing smaller grants for projects that target local community priorities.

    Sure, CoM, but half – if not more – of that money will go to a new Department, bureaucrats, offices, cars, computers, travel, speeches, town hall hire.
    Then there will be the pamphlets, the posters, the announcements, ads in the papers and on the TV.
    Then there will be the “volunteers” all given a Tee shirt, a hat, a handy bag for their smoko, a bag to put the rubbish in. Lotsa photos, and publicity, with the appropriate Minster in on it, for the environment, ya unnerstan!
    Then there will be the Government paid staff who go out and find “worthy” projects, or invite the public to suggest worthy projects.
    Then there will be the “committees” of Government paid staff who go through the public suggestions to determine the worthy ones, from the “save for the next Budget” ones. Natch, there will be superannuation and holidays for all these people, and when the project runs out of money, they will be found other Government jobs, ‘cos you can’t just dismiss government employees FFS!
    Am I cynical? TFR I am!

  51. Up The Workers!

    “Josh sounding like Churchill in places.”

    The seat of his pants being one of those places, presumably.

  52. struth

    The way I see it they are taking huge amounts with one hand……more than ever before and flicking coins back at us.
    Just like the surplus they’ve achieved without achieving a surplus, the lying toads have just produced the insult to your intelligence budget.

  53. Natural Instinct

    Just surfing to find comparisons

    OECD Tax as a fraction of GDP by country
    .
    P.S. Australia does not look too bad, well below average and only 10% worse than USA. But are OECD countries the leaders, or decliners in the world today?
    .
    P.P.S. Not sure OECD figures factor in our compulsory super versus state pensions for other countries accurately.

  54. So, if we want a total of 20% for ALL levels of government, it is over 35% now; we also have nearly 1 trillion of debt all up in the public sector.

    We need very large spending cuts, like those advocated by Duncan Spender and the LDP.

    The Australian Conservatives could eat the Liberal’s lunch f they came out with a similar (or better, hopefully) policy.

  55. Confused Old Misfit

    Cynic of Ayr
    #2978238, posted on April 3, 2019 at 5:54 am

    Don’t have any disagreement at all with you.
    You are entirely correct in all respects.
    I am pleased that something, however small, is being done that might impact a local environment in a more significant way than expenditures wasted on reducing CO2 emissions.

  56. Nelson Kidd-Players

    Natural Instinct #2978408, posted on April 3, 2019 at 12:25 pm

    Just surfing to find comparisons

    OECD Tax as a fraction of GDP by country

    Probably meaning less these days with all the government interference elsewhere, such as in the power sphere. That is reflected in industry going overseas and lack of growth in private industry.

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