More on the electric vehicles farce

We can all have great sport on the back of Bill Shorten’s inability to differentiate between 8 minutes and 8 hours when it comes to the charge rate for electric batteries. But we should not delude ourselves that the Coalition is markedly different.  The ALP policy has two strands – first the 50 per cent of new cars to be electric by 2030 and secondly requiring vehicle emissions to be 105 grams of CO2 per kilometre by 2025.

The former recommendation also involved a roll-out of charging facilities across the nation.  Angus Taylor for the government has, rightly, excoriated this proposal.  But not so long ago he too was extolling a roll out by ARENA costed at $15 million for, “The ultra-rapid charge will provide a range of up to 400 kilometres in just fifteen minutes, compared to a current charging time of several hours”.

The 105 grams of CO2 per km recommendation was made by the government’s own hand-picked Climate Change Authority and was a policy approach Malcolm Turnbull almost got through the Liberal Party Room. Requiring all car sellers to average a level of emissions, which none of the March 2019 top 20 selling vehicles achieve, would require sharp price premiums on all other vehicles – and all vehicles outside of the electric models that start in price at $50k – in order to make the average.  It is unlikely that this could be possible without upping prices of low cost models by 50 per cent and doubling the price of petrol.  Norway, is the poster child of the electric car strategy but has a far less population dispersion than Australia and has petrol prices double our own, as well as tax and other incentives for electric vehicles.

The process would also be achieved by car sellers in Australia sharply discounting prices of the high end electric and hybrid vehicles.  The favoured vehicles, much beloved by the affluent greens would be subsidised by those models, with the (hidden) cost paid by other buyers.  If anyone thinks that is redolent of the policy approach both major parties have used to get renewables into the electricity mix, they would not be wrong!.  Nor would they be wrong in seeing the same supportive policy mechanisms used by the Coalition government to foster renewable electricity supplies.  As part of its “fully costed” Climate Solutions Package, the government even has a fund to subsidise the loans to people buying electric cars.  Not many working class people are in this favoured group.

Among the ill-thought through elements of the policy forcing along electric vehicles is how then do we finance roads.  At present, this is though fuel taxes but with no tax on electricity there is a huge and growing hole.  And, if electric vehicles were to face the same tax as petrol and diesel cars, this would reduce their attraction and require even higher penalties on conventional vehicles.

More significant still is how do we fuel the electric cars.  Graham Young at the Institute for Progress has estimated that if half of the vehicle fleet comprised electric vehicles this would require a two-thirds increase in the 927 petajoules of electricity presently generated.  If this were to be done by a mix of wind and solar, he puts the capital costs at over $600 billion.  But it would not in fact be possible to use these intermittent sources as the vehicles would be overwhelmingly charged overnight (when there is no solar anyway) and therefore by coal based electricity.  Such an increased load would wreck the other strand of the virtue-signallers’ policy: the reduction in emissions from electricity generation.

It is little wonder that Bill Shorten’s handlers released the ALP climate change policy on the eve of the federal budget, hoping that considered analysis would be truncated and all that would be left was the feel-good factor they hope will sail them into office. But the Liberals with their imitation me-too policy are not well placed to capitalise on the ALP idiocy.

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134 Responses to More on the electric vehicles farce

  1. stackja

    Non LNP parties have opportunity to get votes on EV issue.

  2. Pyrmonter

    We’d have none of this malarkey if our ‘political class’ could do for CO2 control what they’ve done for the comparable messes of the past – ‘industry assistance’, ‘industrial awards’ and the ‘scientific tariff (and quotas)’ – expose them to rigorous scrutiny; identify the preferable price-based mechanism that provides the least cost means of achieving the desired outcome, and then critique whether that outcome is desirable. Instead, we’re left with politicos for whom Utopia is a training manual, not a warning.

  3. Bruce of Newcastle

    If either party tries this silliness the results will be entirely predictable.

    1. People will stop buying new cars
    2. The Australian car fleet will get older and older and older
    3. No one will buy Gaia’s holy chariots because they suck and even with massive subsidies will be too expensive
    4. Electricity prices are already such that the energy cost of an EV is only slightly lower than a ICE car of similar performance. And that is with petrol excise included. With the expected rise in electricity prices under both main parties’ policies it will be soon that EVs will be more expensive to run than ICEs.
    5. The ~8 battery life issue is a deadly sleeper. In only a few years of uptake the howls from people with very expensive dead EVs are going to be deafening.
    6. Any party that tries to ban ICEs is going to die horribly at the ballot box.

  4. Karabar

    “we should not delude ourselves that the Coalition is markedly different.”
    Of course not. The Uniparty has only one set of policies, with make-believe variance to differentiate them.
    It has become too similar to the make-believe elections common in thee Eastern Block a scant four or five decades ago.
    Only the minority parties can offer a different approach.

  5. Johnsnowybowyer

    I give up, we just have to let this buffoonery continue until the peak stupidity is reached. Then we will be a trillion dollars down on the deal but at least start to punish perpetrators. I want political and public service pensions first on the list. Universities and other educational facilities losing funding unless wages (especially high up people) are drastically reduced and clearer guidelines for what they should be teaching. Lastly the politicians who pandered to this nonsense humiliated and reminded they cost themselves their marvellous pensions.

  6. Biota

    This is just cargo cult mentality. No way obvious of getting there but something will come along. Like the recent hysteria about imminent driverless cars. Last year Scot Bevan of ABC Newcastle was hyperventilating over maybe he had bought his last car with a steering wheel.

  7. Fred

    Electric cars were crap in 1912 and they are crap in 2019.

    No amount of government subsidy will make them any better. Cheaper yes, but not better.

    I wonder how many rich people will just buy an electric car to get access to no tolls, bus lanes and priority parking, but keep their BMW or Merc for the drive to their holiday house.

  8. wal1957

    That is very cynical of you Fred…but very true

  9. a happy little debunker

    Make’em all buy electric bicycles.

    The progressives heads will implode as Lycra is now a sexist body-shaming material…

  10. Fred,

    Not cheaper, either. It’s just that you’ll pay part of the EV cost up front via taxes. Then you’ll get a bit back via the subsidies.

  11. Boambee John

    Biota
    #2982458, posted on April 8, 2019 at 3:09 pm
    This is just cargo cult mentality. No way obvious of getting there but something will come along.

    Charles Dickens, Mr Micawber waiting for something to turn up?

  12. Speedbox

    What a bunch of numbnuts.

    Electric vehicles farce
    People will stop buying new cars
    This is just cargo cult mentality.
    No amount of government subsidy will make them any better. Cheaper yes, but not better.

    FFS, wake up!! EV’s are coming. Climate change is a scam but that has taken over the world. Every Govt not to mention the UN, EU and an uncountable list of NGO’s are on board. Manufacturer’s are spending $$$billions over the next few years.

    Yep, our power grid can’t cope but what makes you think ‘they’ care. This is the transitional stage when ‘we’ feel the pain and begin to stump up the huge sums that must be spent. Tens of billions $$ on more renewable augmented by generators and crumbling coal fired stations.

    On the Cat we spend almost every day talking about how the stupid Govt did this, or that, or the climate change fiasco, or electricity, Soros, GetUp etc and here is a global action in the name of Gaia rolling out in front of your eyes.

    Perhaps car usage will have to be rationed (think I’m joking?) or domestic recharge is allocated via Smart meters to control excessive loads from EV re-charge in the evenings. Need to re-charge now? Use a public commercial site. By then, fast charging for 30 minutes or less will probably be a reality. And any of this will occur well into the 2030’s – long after Shorten is gone, or Morrison, or anyone else of them but all can be blamed on the increased taxes to pay for “their’ mistakes in not preparing Australia’s electricity supply for EV’s.

  13. Bruce of Newcastle

    Speedbox – Money talks. Pollies are exquisitely sensitive to money grumbles from voters. We are already seeing that from electricity price rises. That is going to go much worse with an EV rollout because of the ALP 50% renewable electricity policy. Remember the guest post I did? Here is the graph from it.

    Even without massive EV electricity consumption we’re looking at 43 c/kWh, and as I said then I thought that might be optimistic. But at 43 c/kWh a 100 kWh battery giving you 400km range is costing you $43 to recharge. A standard ICE getting you 7 L/100 kM at Sydney prices around $1.30/L costs you $36.40 for those same 400 km.

    The capex for building the additional electricity infrastructure to cope with EVs is going to be hundreds of billions in both generation and poles & wires, since everyone is going to want to recharge at home at the same times. That too will cause even more price rises as the constructors get ROI. So 50 c/kWh seems not too far away.

    Now the government could tax petrol more to offset the electricity cost. Yep, that’ll go down well. They’ll have to ban diesel cars because a black market will spring up selling diesel out of the trucking business to private cars. Or they kill the transport business with the same taxes.

    It is just not going to happen. When the Aussie voter on the street starts feeling the pain the pushback will cause pollies to drag their feet and stop talking about it. The whole thing will die. Or the parties will.

    There is still no real world global warming going on this century and the prospect is for cooling.

  14. BoyfromTottenham

    I find it extraordinary that hybrid cars, which have achieved far greater sales (even if many of them are operating as taxis) than full EVs, fail to rate a mention by our pollies. Why is this – is the concept of a transitional solution that works and is actually acceptable to the average punter too complicated to understand, or are hybrids somehow considered insufficiently ideologically ‘pure’ by green ideologues to rate a mention in either party’s election policies? I do not own a hybrid, but I am at least open to the idea of buying one. The current crop of EVs on the other hand all have so many obvious disadvantages that IMO no rational person would buy one without very significant bribery (er, I mean ‘government support’, like they do in Norway, in spades) being involved. Oh – isn’t that what the ALP are proposing?

  15. RobK

    I was wondering how an EV would go with aircon on. The best i could find is with heater on. The nissan leaf 40kWh:
    https://ev-database.org/car/1106/Nissan-Leaf

    Real Rangebetween 160 – 345 km

    City – Cold Weather225 km
    Highway – Cold Weather160 km
    Combined – Cold Weather190 km

    City – Mild Weather345 km
    Highway – Mild Weather210 km
    Combined – Mild Weather265 km

    Indication of real-world range in several situations. Cold weather: ‘worst-case’ based on -10°C and use of heating. Mild weather: ‘best-case’ based on 23°C and no use of A/C. The actual range will depend on speed, style of driving, climate and route conditions

    Cargo Volume Max1176 L
    Towing Weight Unbraked0 kg
    Towing Weight Braked0 kg
    Roof Load0 kg

    No mention of how they go in the humid tropics or scorching shopping car parks.

  16. RobK

    From the same link as above:

    Real Energy Consumptionbetween 11 – 23.8 kWh/100km

    City – Cold Weather16.9 kWh/100km
    Highway – Cold Weather23.8 kWh/100km
    Combined – Cold Weather20.0 kWh/100km

    City – Mild Weather11.0 kWh/100km
    Highway – Mild Weather18.1 kWh/100km
    Combined – Mild Weather14.3 kWh/100km

    Indication of real-world energy use in several situations.
    Cold weather: ‘worst-case’ based on -10°C and use of heating. Mild weather: ‘best-case’ based on 23°C and no use of A/C. The energy use will depend on speed, style of driving, climate and route conditions.

    Quite a variation even before driving style consideration.

  17. RobK

    These things go best on nice days when you could ride your bike.

  18. RobK

    The nissan leaf can seat 5 but no data given for range when fully loaded.

  19. Dr Faustus

    Graham Young at the Institute for Progress has estimated that if half of the vehicle fleet comprised electric vehicles this would require a two-thirds increase in the 927 petajoules of electricity presently generated. If this were to be done by a mix of wind and solar, he puts the capital costs at over $600 billion.

    Alan: Just be aware that Graham Young has:

    1) not allowed for the much greater (~3x) energy efficiency of an EV vs ICE; and
    2) calculated the capital $600 bn capital cost on the basis of 100% replacement.

    Accepting the rest of Young’s numbers, the capital cost would be (a still eye watering) $100 billion. But only two bouts of Pyne Class subs, not 12.

    Best not to offer a free kick.

  20. Robber Baron

    Why only cars?

    Why not trucks, tractors, boats, jet-skis or lawn-mowers?

    Politicians really need to feel the cold blade of a guillotine sooner rather than later.

  21. Viva

    “we should not delude ourselves that the Coalition is markedly different.”

    Nevertheless the ALPs song and dance over electric cars and the resultant backlash may just spook enough voters, especially guys , to get the Liberals over the line.

  22. Russell

    Why does this all sound like “pink-batts” all over again?
    Shonkey stuff happens when you rush an implementation and don’t think thru the consequences.
    There will be no resale value for any used EV – batteries will be stuffed and very expensive to replace.
    I guess the greens figure that making another new car is better for the environment /s

  23. Mark M

    Q. How many electric vehicles must Australia drive before Australia prevents its first polar vortex?

    Electric Vehicles Did Not Fare Well During the Polar Vortex

    https://www.instituteforenergyresearch.org/uncategorized/electric-vehicles-did-not-fare-well-during-the-polar-vortex/

    A. What a scam.

  24. Speedbox

    Bruce:

    I’m cutting/pasting from your two posts on different threads so I only have to answer once.

    The public are like a school of fish. When a critical event occurs they will turn and go in another direction. We’re already seeing that in the immigration space. At present in the global warming space there is great disinterest matched only by great ignorance. But one thing is clear: global warming is on the bottom of the things which matter to voters.

    Agreed, although I am more inclined to suggest great ignorance. Nevertheless, the immigration issue is now subject to a ‘magic trick’ with regard to numbers. The total was/is to be reduced by about 30,000 (apparently) but a) it hasn’t happened yet and b) that number will be compensated by other increased allocations. We both know that the ponzi relies significantly of population increase. Slam the gate and the economy will be in diabolical trouble.

    There is no way they will be politically able to put in place the sort of tax and ban policies needed to get serious EV take up.

    I don’t agree and in any event it doesn’t have to be dressed as an ‘environmental tax’ on fuel. Anything will do – same horse different jockey. When have you seen, in the past decade, an Australian Govt that doesn’t like tax? Or increase slowly, say 1cpl on fuel increase per year. Or half a cent per litre.

    The capex for building the additional electricity infrastructure to cope with EVs is going to be hundreds of billions in both generation and poles & wires, since everyone is going to want to recharge at home at the same times. That too will cause even more price rises as the constructors get ROI. So 50 c/kWh seems not too far away.

    Yep. Billions. Huge cost, all passed on to the consumer. But again, this is drip fed over a long period. EV’s are not dependent on whether Shorten gets in, but he already promises 50% renewables by 2030. Madness, and so is 50% EV sales by then, but because Australia started late (compared to most of the world), our pollies can run out this show to, say, 2040 and increased capex and price increases can be screwed on ‘gently’ over the next 20 years. (just recall that Shorten is promising to screw $200 billion out of the nation over the next 10 years at THIS election).

    Bruce, I am not an apologist for EV’s, but the tide of money (money talks!) and influential organisations pushing EV’s is only second to the climate change (we’re all going to be BBQ’d) crap. This is a cult and more than having just Govt behind it, the manufacturers have committed billions $$ as well. They are not going to quietly pack up their tent and go home.

    If you are relying on a ‘popular uprising’ or ballot box dissatisfaction in the face of increased electricity cost, I think you’re dreaming. Think of the old story about the frog and boiling water. We are the frog and the Govt have up to 20 years to turn up the heat and comply with the global order. And what if both the ALP and Libs are ‘broadly’ in step (what a surprise!) about the need to transition to EV’s and the subsequent requirement to upgrade the grid? If one commits, then the other will usually have to follow (ie. NBN; NDIS).

    As I mentioned upthread, this will occur well into the 2030’s – long after Shorten is gone, or Morrison, or anyone else of them but all can be blamed for the increased taxes.

    I hope your right but believe you’re wrong.

  25. Caveman

    It will be mandatory for all ICE drivers to be equiped with an inverter and offer assistence to any stranded EV drivers by assisting with charging the car or offering a lift. Non compliance is a fine or gaol time.
    I made that up but it will probably happen.

  26. RobK

    Dr Faustus,
    1) not allowed for the much greater (~3x) energy efficiency of an EV vs ICE; 

    How did you arrive at that figure. Batteries are heavy to cart around. On the open road efficiencies are not that different. City traffic, slow speeds and stop start favours EVs.

  27. Dr Fred Lenin

    How long would a tesla battery last on a 42 degree summer day in melbourne with the aircon on full .
    If you dont use the aircon it could be 50 inside the car and you could die .
    Thats important if there is global warming isnt.
    Destroy reliable power sources ,and increase demand for it , recipe for success that is .

  28. Chester Draws

    By then, fast charging for 30 minutes or less will probably be a reality

    You cannot change the laws of physics. If quick charging were easy, it would have been done long ago.

    To charge a battery very quickly requires large amounts of energy to be put into the battery very quickly. That has severe heating issues that get worse as the batteries get smaller and lighter. Fire is a standard result.

  29. EVs may be a good idea.

    They’re not ready for the market.

    Forgetting the power supply issues, the general public will NOT want an EV until:

    1. The recharge price is not more than using petrol.
    2. Ditto for servicing.
    3. Reliability and major overhauls mist be the same or less cost to end users.
    4. Recharge times must be the same or less without overheating issues.
    5. Durability, versatility, styling and performance/range must the be at least the same and better.
    6. Quick home charging must be an option.
    7. A reliable and widespread network for commercial charging or battery swapping.

    There are also issues with high pressure or current (let’s just say high power) recharging. Step voltages and arcing of fossil fuels at multi product stream service stations. Then there is the fact that glass batteries are not consumer items yet, and that reliable, safe and fast charging necessitates massive capacitor and battery storage on site with ongoing and peak power draw downs on the network in megawatt or gigwatt scales. Then there is the need to develop several new technologies; high capacity control systems, capacitors, transformers, rectifiers and terminals.

    A nice idea, but realistically at least 20 years away without a breakthrough technology.

  30. You cannot change the laws of physics. If quick charging were easy, it would have been done long ago.

    Check out the glass battery concept. Also keep in mind materials science has seen the development of many new superconductors lately.

  31. Squirrel

    Aside from making affluent virtue-signallers feel good about themselves, the other reason that the rest of us deplorables and recalcitrants need to embrace leccy cars is because if we don’t, we will miss out on an absolute bonanza of opportunities to create “high skilled, high paid jobs” and world-leading export opportunities (or words to that effect).

    Where have we heard that before….? (windmills, solar panels etc. etc. etc.) and, back in the real world, what happens every time small, isolated, high cost Australia dreams up something that the rest of the world wants in large numbers – manufacturing goes offshore, and never comes back and we get to keep a few design jobs, if we’re lucky.

    But this time will be different, so people who are struggling to avoid having the power cut off just need to get used to the idea of spending a year’s income (or more) when their evil “gas guzzling” car finally needs to be replaced.

  32. Confused Old Misfit

    Speedbox’s fundamental point is that he/she believes that we will be coerced into the use of EV’s, like it or lump it.

  33. Tel

    If Bruce has time to talk about redox… what I’ve noticed with the lead-acid smart charger is that it spends a whole lot of time in the “Absorption” phase. So the standard trio is: Bulk charge, Absorption charge, and Float charge. The first is the actual charge, while the idea of absorption is that you let a little bit extra trickle in holding it at constant voltage to bring it right up to the top. The “Float” phase simply holds the existing charge while it’s already full.

    So do Lithium batteries not even have an absorption phase? Or do the fast chargers simply skip over that to save time? How much difference does it make anyhow? What is the actual chemical process here? I would expect that a given metal atom is either reduced or oxidized there’s no halfway, but maybe it’s more of an ion mobility problem where some ions fart around taking a long time to settle down where they are supposed to go, hence why the smart charger gives a long time for the stragglers to get back home again.

  34. RobK

    https://www.fleetcarma.com/the-truth-about-electric-vehicles-evs-in-hot-weather/

    .  Many electric vehicle owners are aware of the effect that cold weather can have on battery performance, but may be wondering whether or not hot weather has an effect as well.

    EVs in the market today employ different technologies to help combat the heat.  From the Leaf’s air cooled battery to the Volt’s liquid cooled pack, automotive manufacturers continue to innovate and experiment to determine the best way to maximize performance.

    Over 50% of EV’s projected to be sold in the United States this year are located in the 17 states with the highest average annual temperatures.  Some EV owners in warmer climates are expressing concerns about the effect high temperatures this summer may have on the batteries within their vehicles, and how the power draw from the AC affects the range.

    Air Conditioner Use in Plug-in Hybrids and EVs

    The effect of air conditioning on gas mileage has been a much debated topic even for conventional vehicles.  Use of climate control within EVs results in a direct reduction in available range, as the energy that could be used to propel the car is instead used to cool the cabin.  A trend has been seen with EVs and even hybrids with some drivers choosing to opt out of using air conditioning and brave the heat in favour of higher mileages. Research institutions and automotive manufacturers alike are aware of the effect a cooler cabin can have on the range.  The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) studied Mitsubishi’s i-MiEV and suggested that the use of A/C can cause range to decrease 34 – 43%.

    Need for Real-World EV Data

    The fuel economy ratings posted by manufacturers are arrived at by standardized government testing of vehicles under near ideal conditions in a laboratory.  Nissan USA published some information suggesting that the effect of climate control and driving patterns together will reduce the range of the Leaf from 138 miles under ideal conditions to 68 miles in warmer weather.

  35. Exit Stage Right

    BS=Billy Liar

  36. John Bayley

    @RobK:

    That’s why they call it ‘range anxiety’.
    You never can tell just how far you may be able to get today, because of wind, temperature and so on.
    Saving the planet though – totally worth it. /s

  37. Dr Faustus

    How did you arrive at that figure. Batteries are heavy to cart around. On the open road efficiencies are not that different. City traffic, slow speeds and stop start favours EVs.

    Rob: As I’m sure you know, there is a very wide range of published ‘average values’ for vehicle energy efficiency depending on vehicle specifics, fuel, driving cycle and political bias.

    The Green lunatic fringes put ICE at 10-15% and EV at 70%+.

    I used the fuel economy.gov central estimates of ICE 20% and EV 60%.

    I wasn’t trying to be accurate – just to suggest a value not so wildly out of the ball park that the important main points are easy to kick into the long grass.

  38. Nob

    Such an increased load would wreck the other strand of the virtue-signallers’ policy: the reduction in emissions from electricity generation.

    They will not even make the connection.

    They’re already convinced the public that high electricity prices and blackouts are solely down to privatisation and capitalist gouging. Everyone I know parrots this line obediently while giving you their “fiercely independent thinker” look. Some of the are even in denial that prices are high.

  39. RobK

    Tel,
    Specific charge regimes are very dependent on the manufacturer of that model cell. Techniques such as constant current (often bulk charge phase), constant voltage (trickle), pulsed charge (for gel cells), boost charge (for equalization or max charge). The things that determine these parameters include heat dissipation, electrolyte dissociation and ion diffusion into the anode/cathodes.
    These automotive power packs are very regulated with each cell having its own monitoring and control circuit. The internal resistance of the cell will dictate the change rate too of course.

  40. Notafan

    What service does the racv etc provide for EVs that run out of electricity?

    Tow to the nearest charging station?

  41. Looks like the government’s policy is just as stupid. The 10 million tonnes of emissions reduction comes at huge cost, a cost so high that it should be regarded as unsustainable.

  42. Tom

    How long before voters work out that Shorten, the ALP and Greens are the parties of the rich elite who are engaged in a fight to the death politically with the working class poor? Only welfare parasites who pay no net tax have a role as the cannon fodder in the Big Government socialist revolution.

  43. Bruce of Newcastle

    Tel – I don’t know what the absorption phase is for. But PbSO4 + 2H2O = PbO2 + H2SO4 + 2H+ + 2e.

    So you have sulfate ions going into and out of the anode, so maybe it’s for that. You can’t push it because more voltage will just cause hydrogen production, so the rate of charging is a function of the chemical diffusion rate for the sulfate. I suspect. The wiki isn’t especially clear on it.

    Lithium ion batteries don’t use water so they don’t have that problem. But the Li+ ions do have to diffuse from one side to the other,so there’s going to be a chemical diffusion rate issue. Also the Li+ ions have to find their way to the right intercalation spots in the graphite during charging or they’ll plate as metal, which is bad.

    I don’t really know much about operating batteries correctly, so check any and all of this.

  44. Nob

    Dot:

    1. The recharge price is not more than using petrol.

    Easily fixed by raising the price of petrol. Already happening.

    Boy from Totty:

    are hybrids somehow considered insufficiently ideologically ‘pure’ by green ideologues to rate a mention in either party’s election policies?

    Correct.

    Fred:

    I wonder how many rich people will just buy an electric car to get access to no tolls, bus lanes and priority parking, but keep their BMW or Merc for the drive to their holiday house.

    Exactly what is happening in Norway, where BMW & Mercs are everyday vehicles, both ICE and EV. Bus lanes are already clogged in Oslo.

    Mark M:

    The Permian Basin Is Now The World’s Top Oil Producer

    And there’s even more oil in the Bakken, just higher production costs, so it’s ready for when prices go up again. 485 rigs working in West texas Permian last time I looked.

    Four. Hundred. And. Eighty-Five.

    And Australia’s kacking about one rig 400km out in the bight where oil is seeping all the time anyway.

    We’ve opened a separate base in Midland. There wouldn’t be 485 rigs outside Middle East and North America (and Russia maybe) working in all the rest of the world put together. https://ycharts.com/indicators/permian_region_rig_count

    And everything Speedbox said.

  45. Bruce of Newcastle

    Remember John Howard nearly lost an election because of petrol excise rises.

    Petrol excise rise a vote changer for some (2014)

    Some people travel long hours in the big cities and petrol is a large cost. Elections will again be won or lost on such things.

  46. Nob

    Bruce of Newcastle
    #2982600, posted on April 8, 2019 at 6:40 pm

    Some people travel long hours in the big cities and petrol is a large cost. Elections will again be won or lost on such things.

    FFS, It’s not just about commuters.

    Everybody is affected by freight transport costs which are overwhelmingly hydrocarbon powered.

    They just don’t make the connection and media doesn’t mention it.

  47. MatrixTransform

    You cannot change the laws of physics.

    Journalists do it every day

  48. Nob

    Bruce of Newcastle
    #2982600, posted on April 8, 2019 at 6:40 pm

    Some people travel long hours in the big cities and petrol is a large cost. Elections will again be won or lost on such things.

    It’s not just about commuters.

    Everybody is affected by freight transport costs which are overwhelmingly hydrocarbon powered.

    They just don’t make the connection and media doesn’t mention it.

  49. Tailgunner

    A worked 6L V8 is going to be verboten, isn’t it?
    $5l petrol?
    The Marxists have to go.

  50. RobK

    Thanks Dr F,
    The figures used are bench test figures of conversion efficiency as far as i can tell, so no allowance is made for the batterys low energy density causing an intrinsically low Energy-to-weight ratio. The kWh/100km quoted for the nissan leaf above, especially at highway speed tell a practical story.

  51. Leo G

    Forgetting the power supply issues, the general public will NOT want an EV until … 6. Quick home charging must be an option.

    Even three phase 415 volt systems would need to cope with conductors carrying hundreds of amps for the suggested fast chargers. Such chargers would be situated several metres from transformers connected to 11kV or 33kV supplies. The simplest installation would exceed the cost of premium EVs, so they can’t realistically perform as home charging stations.
    Managing more practical single-unit quick charging stations would likely involve recharge-by-appointment. Perhaps these EVs should also be autonomous, so they can drive themselves between prebooked recharging and parking stations.
    How practical by year 2025?

  52. RobK

    I dont think the super quick chargers are ready for primetime. I expect most proponents of EVs are thinking home charging (which has problems but not as many as fast charge), some even drool that EVs can be a form of grid storage (which presents an entirely different set of problems and is pretty unrealistic but not impossible).

  53. Speedbox

    Confused Old Misfit
    #2982571, posted on April 8, 2019 at 5:58 pm
    Speedbox’s fundamental point is that he/she believes that we will be coerced into the use of EV’s, like it or lump it.

    He.

    Separately, the rollout cost of poles, wires, public charging stations, vast electric infrastructure (renewables, generators, maintain/upgrade creaking gas or coal fired etc) although gigantic, can be partially ‘disguised’ due to the very long period of expense. Who knows what the NBN cost? What’s the bet an electricity system revamp is called a ‘nation building’ project over the next 10-20 years. Create thousands of jobs (which ironically it probably would) and a cost of, say, $20b per annum. $400b over 20 years. pffttt. Chicken feed.

    As I said above, Shorten is going to increase the national tax burden by $200b over 10 years. I’m not saying another $200b to fund this EV scenario, but you see how easily these numbers get thrown around.

    Although mentioned above, the cost of the charging stations could be very little to the Govt as they could sell the stations. Installed under legislation similar to phone towers meaning they could be installed without Local Council approval. Sell in small to large lots to allow small and larger punters to buy them. Of course, being a Govt exercise, it would not be well run at all, but much of the cost of the chargers could probably be recovered.

    At the end of the day, it’s this. Governments, NGO’s, global manufacturers, assorted environmental interest groups and wealthy individuals (Soros et al) have all drunk from the cool-aid and they have decided and agreed via the forums we are not even allowed to enter. Each country will have its own issues and political minefield to tread but ultimately, the forces, and money, raged against us are immense and blindingly powerful.

    And by the way, whilst this doesn’t mean the end of the oil industry due to its use in a myriad of other areas beyond petrol for cars, I think that just as the forces gather against coal, you can bet your socks that oil isn’t going to escape entirely unscathed. Just a much longer game.

  54. Dr Fred Lenin

    As soon as they started to build the rechargers they would find they did not have sufficient power generstion to operste them . Its a typical brain fart from inadequate peopke trying to be clever.
    The capetbaggers who own the rechargers will not be best pleased withh this situation ,depriving them of getting more money .

  55. Speedbox:

    EV’s are coming. Climate change is a scam but that has taken over the world. Every Govt not to mention the UN, EU and an uncountable list of NGO’s are on board. Manufacturer’s are spending $$$billions over the next few years.

    Shall we construct the future from this point of yours, Speedbox?
    1. Who will suffer the most? Well, that’d be the peasants. But it will even more be the middle class who will see their savings wiped out in the depression that will occur when GM/Ford/Suzuki/Honda/Toyota go bankrupt and wipe out their pension funds.
    2. Who won’t suffer the most? The ones who have already made their money and can survive even when they lose 90% of their wealth.
    3. The coming crisis has been planned. Lenin stated “The way to crush the bourgeoisie is to grind them between the millstones of taxation and inflation”
    Discuss.

  56. Alan

    Perhaps the climate / EV policies look the same from both sides, because the major parties are firmly under the control of a certain higher string-puller? Scroll down.
    I recognised that the coloured tiles looked the same as for the United Nations.
    I also note that the cheapest electric vehicle you can buy may be the $47,490 Renault Zoe Life.
    BUT then the Zoe loses half of its original value after just 3 years!
    That’s enough to burn anyone! Or drown a BMW i8 to put out fire?
    So now it’s a case of “who you know“. Rob Shorten knows where the money will be?
    Utilities and Infrastructure sectors …

  57. Rob MW

    Among the ill-thought through elements of the policy forcing along electric vehicles is how then do we finance roads.

    Tax walking.

    Fred Flintstone was onto something. Yabba-dabba-doo.

  58. Speedbox

    Who will suffer the most? Well, that’d be the peasants. But it will even more be the middle class who will see their savings wiped out in the depression that will occur when GM/Ford/Suzuki/Honda/Toyota go bankrupt and wipe out their pension funds.

    And that, principally, is where we differ. I don’t think it will be a ‘bust’. The whole point I have been saying, and I’m sure you have noticed, is that the forces are too big. Too much global money, power and prestige is at stake.

    I don’t think for one second they care about the little guy (or even the medium guy) otherwise 2008/9 may have turned out a lot differently, but this EV thing, I believe, will succeed in being the next evolution of the motor car. ‘Too big to fail’ comes to mind albeit in a different sense to what we are used to.

    EV’s are the manifestation of climate change – that and the closure of coal power stations. Billions of taxpayer dollars spent globally every year on a myriad of Gaia projects. Has one of those paid off yet? Even one? They don’t give a shit. Do the Govts care, the UN, the EU, the environmental groups, or the Soros’? Superannuation funds line up to invest. Other businesses bow in appeasement of virtue signalling.

    Do you think it was a complete accident that Shorten mentioned it? He knows f/all about it but somebody put it in front of him. It must have been discussed as an issue to raise. Throwing money at a problem is always a Government solution and our electricity supply will be no different. And the best bit is that they have 20 years to do it and cannot be directly blamed – the Govt’s of 2035/40 will carry most of the problem but they can point to the mistakes of 2020/25.

    Anyway, EV’s are just an extension of the whole climate change/Gaia thing. Hundreds of billions invested and Government encouraged. Time will tell if I’m right.

  59. stackja

    Voters have the decision to make.
    MSM won’t provide proper coverage.
    How many really understand what’s at stake? SSM showed gullibility was rife.

  60. MatrixTransform

    Too much global money, power and prestige is at stake.

    Laws of economics and Laws of sociology … are not the same sort of laws as the Laws of Thermodynamics.

  61. Speedbox

    stackja
    #2982701, posted on April 8, 2019 at 8:48 pm

    F/all I’d suggest. But then, do they ever? And do they care anyway? How many times have you heard someone say “Well, its just progress I suppose. Not much I can do about it” before they discuss, in depth, MAFS or MKR.

  62. stackja

    Blamey, Sir Thomas Albert (1884–1951) by David Horner

    Blamey was head of the ‘White Army’, a right-wing, secret army prepared to defend the state if there were an attempt at a communist or Catholic takeover. Although the evidence of Blamey’s leadership is circumstantial, by training and instinct he was an autocrat; he considered himself to be the supreme commander of the police force and acted accordingly. The force’s official historian observed that ‘Blamey’s style of dealing with public protest was confrontationalist, readily violent, and generally ruthless’.

    Morshead, Sir Leslie James (1889–1959) by A. J. Hill

    From 1950 he headed ‘The Association’, a secret organization prepared to oppose communist attempts at subversion. It was quietly disbanded in 1952. Morshead had had a brief connexion with a similar movement in the mid-1920s.

  63. JC

    If there’s one thing you ever do, movie wise, you have to watch Free Solo. It’s the best doco I’ve ever watched. The dude is a total nutcase, but boy does he have courage. I’m not even sure if it is courage or he gets off on an endorphin hit.

  64. RobK

    Speedbox,
    I understand your fatalistic sentiments. I think differently because the large figures of anticipated expenditure is relative to alternative options. The car makers claim a lot in research & tooling up etc but a good deal of that would be spent regardless and not all effort would be wasted if an alternative route is ultimately taken. Same for the grid. There would be some waste and non optimal expenditure but much can be repurposed or is not toxic in low proportions. For example if things become increasingly dire, the chance of nuclear power getting a run improves. We are not totally lost (though we’d do better to see the light early rather than later). Now is not the time to throw in the towel. The arguments are still there to be won. There is no option but to state the facts as you see them, as i trust is what you are doing. Thing is, even Soros is a mear mortal who thinks he is right.

  65. Nob

    stackja
    #2982701, posted on April 8, 2019 at 8:48 pm
    Voters have the decision to make.
    MSM won’t provide proper coverage.
    How many really understand what’s at stake? SSM showed gullibility was rife.

    Their first move will be to brand dissent , disagreement, alternative views or even lack of forced enthusiasm with some toxic label like “hate” “phobia” “denial” “regressive” “far right” “Big Whatever” (optional “lobby” attached)

    It’s all about the Vibe.
    Get with it.
    It’s about new generation who are The Future! But when it doesn’t work it’s because The Past.

    Don’t forget that these are stupid people who can believe that Self-Extinction is a growing movement.

  66. duncanm

    First – burning petrol produces about 2.3kg/l CO2, so tits wants cars to be doing about 1 l/100km by 2025. a five-fold improvement on current best performance in 5 years. Good luck with that.

    If the engines don’t exist now in the R&D labs, they won’t be in a product in 2025. There’s stuff called physics in the way; the Carnot cycle limits you to about 50% efficiency, and we’re running engines above 40% at the moment.

    On to the numbers – Dr Faustus is right.. Mr Young has over-egged his omelette.

    From our mates at the ABS, fuel consumption for road registered vehicles is about 34 Gl/year. About equal amounts of diesel (15.5GL) and petrol (17.5 GL). Let’s assume 50/50 for simplicity. Ignore the piddling amounts of CNG and LNG.

    So, we have Petrol (Diesel) numbers as follows:

    Assume efficiencies of 30% (40%)
    Energy densities are 34 (38) MJ/l

    So generated energy is:
    17 x 0.3 x 34 (17 x 0.4 x 38) PJ (Peta Joules. 10^15 J)
    = 173 (258) PJ

    Total of 431 PJ.

    So if half our fleet were electrified, we’d need 215 PJ of useful energy to propel the vehicles around.

    We can give them a bit of slack.. transmission loss is somewhat less. Let’s say about 10% better.
    But on the flip side, charging efficiency is 80-90%.. so let’s call it even.

    Australia consumes about 225 TWh of electricity per year. ~ 810 PJ

    So 50% of cars using electrickery would mean 25-30% more electricity consumption. +1/4 to 1/3, nowhere near 2/3.

    Still – where’s the electricity going to come from? Can’t be coal or gas (that defeats the purpose), so wind or solar.

    Let’s crunch those numbers. Just the 30% increase, no even the baseload which is being shunted to renewables.

    68 TWh (1/3 of 225): Ivanpah in the US generates about 700 GWh/year, but about half (1200000 MMBtu or 351 GWh) is from natural gas, so we won’t count that!

    That facility (350 GWh/year) is about 27 km^2 in area (and has a nice habit of vaporising bugs and birds, but we won’t mention that). It aims for about 28% efficiency (sun to electricity), so its on par with solar cells.

    So for solar, we’d need 68000/350 x 27 = 5200 square kilometers of area dedicated to solar generation. Something about the size of metropolitan Perth, or twice the area of the ACT should do it.

    Of course we couldn’t stick it in one place – we’d need one near every metropolitan centre. 15% of your typical residential sprawl would do it.

    How about wind?

    Capacity factor of 40% (dreaming!) means we need 68/0.4/365/24 = 20GW of generating capacity. Turbines in use, such as those in SA are 2MW. No wukkas, that’s only 10,000 fricken windmills at a cool $4M a pop; That’s $40B up the wazoo right there, not counting storage or transmission infrastructure.

    Oh, and don’t mention the amount of blood Cobalt required for all those Lithium batteries. There’ll need to be a replacement for that technology.

  67. duncanm

    Sorry – numbers on the fuel consumption are wrong. 4.5l/100km is about 105g/km.. that’s actually quite doable, but needs no government ‘help’.

  68. RobK

    Thanks Duncan. Good effort.

  69. Speedbox

    RobK
    #2982748, posted on April 8, 2019 at 9:38 pm

    I am fatalistic on this and I think with good reason. To say the obvious, we are a relatively insignificant country on the far side of the world. People get us confused with Austria. Our annual ICE car sales amount to about 1.5% of the global total so no matter how important we may think we are from a new car sales perspective, we are too tiny to be taken seriously.

    Meanwhile, on the other side of the planet, where car sales are measured in their multi-millions, an assortment of global entities, both private, semi-Government and Government, have effectively decreed that EV’s are the future in accordance with the wishes of Gaia.

    The media are (or will be) on board and dissent will be muted at best. At the Cat, we will whinge and fret over how our electricity system will cope; and the cost; inadequate infrastructure; the cost of new EV’s; tax structure; EV range anxiety etc etc. but it won’t stop the tide.

    By 2025 there will be dozens of models from numerous manufacturers amounting to millions of sales. Collectively, EV sales are forecast to hit about 9-10% of all global car sales (excluding China) and the beginning of the transition is underway. By 2030, EV sales are forecast to achieve about 30% of global car sales (and climbing fast). By 2040, game over for the ICE in a car.

    Unless your planning on driving an old ICE vehicle, transition to an EV will be inevitable.

    As I said “Too much global money, power and prestige is at stake”.

  70. Speedbox

    duncanm
    #2982785, posted on April 8, 2019 at 10:04 pm

    Thanks for the work but nobody outside the Cat will care. Governments say that “the science is settled” with regard to climate change! Logic, maths and science are incidental – it is what has been determined by ‘our betters’ that really counts.

  71. OldOzzie

    The Future of Australia under Shorten Labor and Greens but also Idiot ScoMo Liberals

    California’s Self-Created Future Energy Crisis

    In much of the country a powerful energy boom is providing a serious stimulus to economic growth. But in California, where fossil fuels are considered about as toxic as tobacco, we are lurching toward an anticipated energy shortage that will further exacerbate the state’s already deep geographic and class divisions.

    California, in a typical feat of “virtue signaling,” has committed the state to getting half of its electrical power from renewables such as wind and solar, up from 16 percent today, within the next decade. This drive has meant the rapid abandonment of electricity generated by nuclear power as well as natural, gas which together comprised nearly 70 percent of all electricity production in 2015.

    An electric future without electricity?

    Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti’s recent decision to not invest in L.A.’s existing natural-gas plants took place against the advice of staff at the Department of Water and Power. Silly realists, they worried about the ability of the city to generate all its power off of renewable sources, which tend to be unreliable and intermittent. Cold weather this year already stressed the natural gas supplies of the city.

    If the mayor insists on transforming Los Angeles into a “green” paradise, expect much higher prices, and greater energy instability. California is already the second most expensive state for energy in the continental U.S. Similar policies have been responsible for high energy prices, and little greenhouse gas reductions, in such diverse places as Germany and Australia.

    This is occurring, remarkably enough, as our political leaders commit to forcing more Californians to electrify everything — our heating and cooling systems as well as our cars. To meet the demand generated by electric cars alone, according to one recent estimate, would require 50 percent more electricity than today. This is occurring as we are not adding capacity but stripping it away from reliable nuclear and natural gas sources.

    Creating dependency

    The price of our leaders’ green virtue will fall particularly hard on working-class Californians who already suffer the nation’s highest rate of people living in poverty. They also tend to live in less-temperate geographies such as the Inland Empire, the high desert and the Central Valley. Expect the recent moves to expand the ranks of the million Californians who suffer from “energy poverty,” defined as spending 10 percent or more of their household income on energy-related expenses.

    Our economic dependency is worsened by the fact that California, once a major energy exporter, has adopted a bizarre policy that restricts not only local production but restricts imports from places such as North Dakota and Texas. Instead of embracing these Trump-leaning states, our leaders seem happier to get most of our crude oil shipped in forward-looking despotisms like Saudi Arabia.

    There’s a cost to this. Last year other regions added over 130,000 energy jobs, most of them high-paying, and mostly union, while our green leaders cheer on the continued elimination of such work here. This may seem fine to people working at Apple, Google, Facebook and in Hollywood, who make so much that high prices barely impact their lavish lifestyles, but may prove more damaging to blue-collar workers who either drill or refine energy, or work in industries dependent on reliable, affordable electricity. This is one reason why manufacturing in California last year grew less than one fourth the rate of the rest of the country, one-sixth that of Texas and one-tenth of neighboring Arizona and Nevada.

  72. Nob

    Yeah, colleagues in the oilfield are used to embracing change and just say, “It’s gonna happen”.

    They are neither sad nor happy about this.

    In Norway they’ve all had electric cars for ages. ICE company cars are taxed to fuck.

    There’s no monolithic “fossil fuel industry” despite the endless propaganda telling you so.

    There are just a bunch of competing energy interests.

  73. John Bayley

    Speedbox, you may well be correct, because the way you describe it is exactly how governments ‘work’, indeed.
    The only possible spanner in the works would be a global depression. Looking at debt trajectories, both public and private, pretty much everywhere, and the increasingly desperate efforts by central banks trying to keep the Ponzi going, I suspect when it finally does blow it will be a doozy.
    In the follow-up chaos, saving the planet will become strictly a secondary consideration – same as it is in, for example, Venezuela or Zimbabwe. Note that nobody talks about electric cars in those countries.
    Also, the growing support for non-mainstream political parties observable pretty much everywhere now may lead to some rather interesting outcomes.
    The recent events in France are an example of that.

  74. duncanm

    Speedbox, that’s the scary thing.

    It takes ten minutes on the net to search the data and crunch the numbers on the back of an envelope.

    Ardern-world – its all about the feels.

  75. duncanm

    In Norway they’ve all had electric cars for ages. ICE company cars are taxed to fuck.

    The ultimate virtue signallers.
    45% of Norway’s exports are petroleum products.

  76. struth

    Speedbox………………………………..

    You are not correct at all.

    The amount of take up of electric cars even with massive subsidies, around the world is miniscule in comparison with unsubsidised ICE sales.

    Yes, governments will do all that they can to push them down our throats, and they will continue to use them to tax the shit out of fuel and ICE vehicles, etc etc.
    We all agree.

    The reality is that something a government does will one day be a step to far and civilizational collapse will occur.
    You are not pessimistic enough.

    The reality is that if a government wants to replace half of the cars on our roads with vehicles completely useless and not yet anywhere near fit for purpose, vehicles that cannot be refuelled because Australia does not produce enough fuel for them, and they are slow to fuel even if they can get that fuel, and that very same fuel powers nearly everything else that makes us a first world country,AND IT FORCES THE CHANGE, we will instantly become a third world Venezuela over night.
    Is that what the left wants,….yes.
    But you speak as if these things are coming so we better get used to it, and I’m telling you that if they are forced on us, then it will be like forcing electric cars on Venezuelans………………..no one will be buying any cars, except for the socialists at the very top, and the rest of us will be busy eating our pets.

    This is my point………………the Venezuelan government could mandate 50% EV’s by 2030 and that will mean four fifths of fuck all, because no one will be buying them, without jobs, without food.

    The ICE from the time steam started the industrial revolution is the key ingredient to western civilisation.
    So yes, they will try to force these EV’s onto us, but to think we will survive it without complete devastation is optimistic.

    Any western country that brings in a policy like Labor’s policy, will be subsidising the EV’s and will be taxing ICE exponentially much more to facilitate a massive and forced change, will send their countries into abject poverty.
    There doesn’t seem to be many people who quite grip just how reliant we are on the ICE and how necessary it is to our survival, especially with the population levels that have grown out of relying on it.

    Quite simply, if shorten gets in and does this, we are actually going to plunge into a third word abyss.
    Without a doubt.
    Please listen to the well travelled, by means of ICE’s around the country interconnecting business, existing in cities , country and outback Austalia truckie and tour driver.
    This inner city brain fart will destroy the nation …………….completely and utterly.

    Dickheads like TV presenters musing on how people would charge their cars if they lived in city high rise and other trivial concerns are pointless.
    So you see speedbox, in the long run, enforced EV’s means no one will be able to afford any car, let alone an EV.
    You can’t make people buy stuff if they’re broke.

  77. Speedbox

    duncanm
    #2983004, posted on April 9, 2019 at 8:36 am

    Yeah. The statistical data, development expenditure and forecast sales data I quoted on this page and on page one of Monday’s Open Forum (about which manufacturers are doing what), is easily sourced via the net. Pages and pages of data, forecasts and observations on EV’s and much of it from the manufacturers themselves! Plus assorted Government reports etc all available for reading and downloading.

    But, scratch the surface, and you will see the depth of the ‘collusion’. EV’s are inextricably linked to climate change. And climate change is a done deal.

  78. Dr Fred Lenin

    Old Ozzie .Sounds like a plan ,you increase the absolute need for electricity while you decrease the supply of electricity available ,very gangrene governmental decision . Thats in the same league as abolish cows for farting , but we still get milk from the supermarket?
    Wont the stars complain about the noise all their neighbours generators are going will make ?
    Just imagine the size generstor gore would need .
    Then the green dealers srart to destroy the fossil fuel industry,do generators run on wood ?
    Have the gangrenes locked up all the forests preventing wood gathering ?
    The stupidity goes on and on doesnt it ,not a brain amongst them .

  79. Wozzup

    We need not worry in the least about replacements for gas fueled cars.
    A USA based company name Hanna Barbera long ago solved to problem. YABBA DABBA DOO!

    https://stockhead.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/flintstonescar-640×360.jpg

  80. Speedbox

    You are not pessimistic enough.

    You can be a funny bastard at times. That certainly made me laugh.

    Please listen to the well travelled, by means of ICE’s around the country interconnecting business, existing in cities , country and outback Australia truckie and tour driver.

    I have always enjoyed your stories and respect your experience. Do not think otherwise.

    How much money has been spent on climate change to date? How much money has been spent on knobbling our electrickery system to date? Consumer prices have increased 130+% in the past decade. South Australia are building another interconnecter to NSW at a cost of $1.5B after screwing their domestic supply and blowing up (!) the power station at Pt Augusta. Where is the outrage?

    My point Struth is that nobody cares or at best, only a few. Governments, especially federal governments, talk in telephone numbers when it comes to expenditure and the sheeple go along with it. Shorten is promising to suck at least $200B out of the economy in additional taxes over the next decade yet he is almost certain to be elected. FFS.

    Where are the media? Where is the outcry from the public?

    Ok, let’s say that Shorten is elected and his two ‘promises’ of 50% renewable energy by 2030 and 50% of car sales are EV’s by the same date are now scheduled to become reality over the next decade. What will the cost be? Personally, I have no idea except knowing it will be gigantic but, lets say $500B. Half a trillion dollars.

    Up thread I said: Throwing money at a problem is always a Government solution and our electricity supply will be no different. And the best bit is that they have 20 years to do it and cannot be directly blamed – the Govt’s of 2035/40 will carry most of the problem but they can point to the mistakes of 2020/25.

    If Shorten is elected he can embed these programs (think NBN; NDIS) and commit the country to, say, $25B expenditure per annum for the next 10-15-20 years. After 20 years, there is your half trillion dollars. How much will the NDIS cost over the next 20 years? Has Gillard been recalled to explain herself? What about the NBN? Anybody seen Combet lately? Those stupid submarines will cost $150B+ by the time the last one is delivered in 25-30 years. Where is the outrage? Has Chrissy Pyne been called to account? FFS he was given a ‘hero’s send off’ when he announced his retirement a couple of weeks ago. He even teared-up when saying goodbye to the Parliament.

    And Shorten and Co will get off scott-free as well.

    Governments spend our money without consequences and this will be no different. Taxes will rise (even if subtly) or borrowings will increase. In the case of EV’s, this is a program promoted and propelled by the UN, the EU, virtually every western or other ‘civilised’ Government, the environmental groups and a cabal of very powerful individuals urging behind the scenes – all of whom are supported by millions of inner-city lefties and social warriors. Many of the world’s biggest businesses are on-board and are investing vast sums at the behest of the collective. Do you seriously think we can swim against the tide? Australia is a f*cking minnow on the world stage regardless of how important we may think we are.

    It’s a done deal Struth. EV’s are coming (but not as fast as Shorten wants – that’s impossible) and the electrickery system will be oiled and patched and held together with gaff tape and fencing wire despite vast sums being thrown at it. And barely a single voice will be publicly raised in protest. Millions, by their silence, will be deemed as giving their consent.

  81. struth

    It’s a done deal Struth. EV’s are coming (but not as fast as Shorten wants – that’s impossible) and the electrickery system will be oiled and patched and held together with gaff tape and fencing wire despite vast sums being thrown at it. And barely a single voice will be publicly raised in protest. Millions, by their silence, will be deemed as giving their consent.

    And I am saying if it’s a done deal, you’re not being pessimistic enough.

    It will be a complete destruction of our economy, into chaos , bloodshed and violence, poverty and misery.

    Which is what the left are after, their utopian UN world government to then control the lot.
    You seem to think there will still be a patched together electricity grid and we’ll have jobs to pay the expense off.
    In your calculations you are not factoring in the actual job and the importance of the ICE.
    You recognise the corruption correctly, but seem to think there will be a much impoverished Austalia because of it, where I’m saying that taxing and removing the ICE from Australia will be complete destruction.
    Complete societal collapse will occur, because our entire civilisation requires the Performance and reliability, the relative cheapness etc of the ICE.
    Taxing them into non existence, o even just taxing them too much, will plunge us into the third world.

    I am aghast , and I’m going to say it, at the insulated views of urban people who do not seem to understand the importance of the ICE in binging us this standard of living.

    I’m asking you to actually think of the practicalities, plus the corruption, and not just the coruption to then understand a forced transition on that scale will be complete devastation, complete Venezuela .

    The western world needs ICE to survive, and until there is a product that can do as well , banning it, and taxing it to non existence is sure death.

    Think of the day to day costs and practicalities of a heavily taxed ICE and sub standard replacement, and it’s civilizational ruin.

  82. Diogenes

    Landed on this through Drudge

    It’s a sunny day in March and “Machine Planet” is flying a single-engine Cessna over Northern California. He’s cruising at 1,500 feet toward a massive lot leased by electric-car maker Tesla. His mission: to burst the Tesla bubble. And make some money doing it.
    What he sees today makes his eyes widen: more than 100 car-carrier trailers, the kind you see on highways hauling new cars to dealers. They’re lined up in neat rows. Empty. Idle.

    “So I flew to Lathrop,” Machine Planet said. “There was this amazing moment when I realized the entire facility was packed with cars.” More than 3,000, he said.
    “That was entirely the moment where we went from kind of believing Elon about demand and not being able to build enough cars to [finding evidence that] the cars are either not sold or not salable.”

    In an age of social media Photoshop fakes, it pays to be leery about anything that appears on Twitter or elsewhere online. So The Times flew with Machine Planet and spent a day in Los Angeles with Latrilife and the man he hired to take photos.
    A reporter roamed a public parking lot outside the Crunch Gym in Burbank, where more than 100 Teslas sat. The vehicle identification numbers showed that many were manufactured in 2018.

    https://www.latimes.com/business/autos/la-fi-hy-tesla-short-sellers-musk-20190408-story.html

  83. Tom Atkinson

    Morning all,

    I have started a petition, calling for the abolition of all climate change policies. Please sign it yourselves, and share on Facebook and everywhere else.

    Thanks,
    Tom

  84. Speedbox

    I am aghast , and I’m going to say it, at the insulated views of urban people who do not seem to understand the importance of the ICE in bringing us this standard of living. I’m asking you to actually think of the practicalities, plus the corruption, and not just the corruption to then understand a forced transition on that scale will be complete devastation…

    Struth, I don’t entirely disagree with you. As an older man now I have seen (as we all have) a tectonic shift in the way society works both here and overseas. You can be damn sure I don’t agree with much of it. I spent many years working in mines and am fully familiar with ICE’s and the work they perform. I have never lived on a farm or been a truckie like you, but I do have ‘some’ idea.

    I know a fair bit about EV’s but more particularly, I have been watching the machinations of the cabal in promoting them. I have posted numerous reports about the assorted legislation (overseas) either enacted or proposed that will kill off the ICE. I have watched with interest the resultant issues (ie California) and sniggered at France (remember that the yellow vest protests were originally about diesel price rises). I read about the EV issues in Norway (who are not in the EU), but also look to the announcements of the EU and the UN IPCC.

    At home in Australia, we don’t have to look too far to see our subservience to Gaia. And Shorten suddenly makes comments about a subject that has had no previous traction in the Australian media. Gimme a break!

    Only 24 hours ago I made my original post about the inevitability of EV’s on the Open Forum and it is still getting some assorted comments. Maybe it is time other people also woke up and sniffed the breeze. As an example of our lethargy, although on a much smaller scale, Malcolm Turnbull donated $500M to the Barrier Reef. Half a billion dollars! And what? The numbers I mentioned in my earlier post are entirely feasible and probably under-cooked. But over a 20 year commitment……easy peasy on the alter of climate change. Our Governments spend money without being accountable or at least, until an election by which stage its too late.

    Struth – forgive me but, “look up man”. It isn’t what you can see in front of you – it is a whole world shift that is irresistible and the forces behind it will never retreat. Money, power, influence and prestige. The corruption, deals and consensus you mention are already baked in. Nothing, ever, is as it seems when looking at a global agreement.

  85. Speedbox

    Struth – I posted a reply but it is caught in moderation for unclear reasons. Anyway, here is an edited shorter version.
    ……………

    I have been watching the machinations of the global cabal in promoting EV’s. I have posted numerous reports about the assorted legislation (overseas) either enacted or proposed that will kill off the ICE. I have watched with interest the resultant issues (ie California) and sniggered at France (remember that the yellow vest protests were originally about diesel price rises). I read about the EV issues in Norway (who are not in the EU), but also look to the announcements of the EU and the UN IPCC.

    At home in Australia, we don’t have to look too far to see our subservience to Gaia. And Shorten suddenly makes comments about a subject that has had no previous traction in the Australian media. Gimme a break!

    Only 24 hours ago I made my original post about the inevitability of EV’s on the Open Forum and it is still getting some assorted comments. Maybe it is time other people also woke up and sniffed the breeze. As an example of our lethargy, although on a much smaller scale, Malcolm Turnbull donated $500M to the Barrier Reef. Half a billion dollars! And what? The numbers I mentioned in my earlier post are entirely feasible and probably under-cooked. But over a 20 year commitment……easy peasy on the alter of climate change. Our Governments spend money without being accountable or at least, until an election by which stage its too late.

    Struth – forgive me but, “look up man”. It isn’t what you can see in front of you – it is a whole world shift that is irresistible and the forces behind it will never retreat. Money, power, influence and prestige. The corruption, deals and consensus you mention are already baked in. Nothing, ever, is as it seems when looking at a global agreement.

  86. hzhousewife

    Who manufactures electric B-doubles?

  87. RobK

    Hz,
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_Semi

    Tesla Semi
    The Tesla Semi is an all-electric battery-powered Class 8 semi-trailer truck prototype which was unveiled on November 16, 2017 and planned for production in 2020 by Tesla, Inc.[2][3] The company initially announced that the truck would have a 500 miles (805 km) range on a full charge and with its new batteries it would be able to run for 400 miles (640 km) after an 80% charge in 30 minutes using a solar-powered “Tesla Megacharger” charging station. Tesla CEO Elon Musk said that the Semi would come standard with Tesla Autopilot that allows semi-autonomous drivingon highways.

    They’ve got you covered, well, sort of. A bit.

  88. Speedbox

    hzhousewife
    #2983264, posted on April 9, 2019 at 1:59 pm
    Who manufactures electric B-doubles?

    Electric heavy vehicles are much more problematic than cars for the obvious reasons of load weight and journey distance requirements. Tesla, Peterbilt and Daimler are all messing about with it for their ‘medium’ size trucks but the results are nowhere near sufficient.

    To be honest, I expect it will be many years (like lots) before a viable electric heavy truck will be available.

  89. notafan

    To be honest, I expect it will be many years (like lots) before a viable electric heavy truck will be available.

    They’ll come up with something innovative like electric tracks to run them on

  90. hzhousewife

    They’ll come up with something innovative like electric tracks to run them on

    snort …….

  91. Speedbox

    hzhousewife

    Same applies for large equipment such as bulldozers, graders, farm and similar equipment in a myriad of industries fuelled by diesel. I don’t know whether they can be adequately ‘electrified’ whilst maintaining their push/pull/dig/lift/power capability which is why diesel fuel will be with us for a very long time.

  92. Buccaneer

    Speedbox is largely right about most of the assumptions. Particularly the observation about international manufacturers and overseas markets. Both the EU and California are implementing increasingly onerous emissions targets that make even Ferarri and Rolls Royce take up the electric bandwagon. We’re small beer. However, car manufacturers are having an each way bet at the moment. Yes they are developing electric but also Hydrogen, fuel cell and ICE tech too. They all still remember the rotary engine debacle.

    Electric cars are not all bad either, they are cheaper to run, require a lot less servicing and are more reliable. Their weak point is batteries and charging. Charging will always be slow at your home unless you can afford to spend serious quid on a fast charger. Batteries and motors include rare earth metals and other materials that are environmentally damaging to obtain. Lithium batteries are dangerous and have a limited life span. Capital cost of electric vehicles will go down with scale.

    Electric vehicles are coming, but so are autonomous vehicles too and that change will be far greater, changing ownership modes and usage. In that market ICE vehicles may not be able to compete as they require too much attention for oil and filter changes.

  93. Buccaneer

    Electric motors have better torque characteristics than diesel motors for a similar size. That’s why they pull big locomotives. The issue relate to the amount of current a big electric motor needs to draw and the availability and sustainability of that current. Freight trains are diesel as not all the network is always electrified.

  94. dover_beach

    How do they expect people in the country to cope when the Nissan Leaf can’t travel 300km highway driving?

  95. hzhousewife

    Thanks Buccaneeer and Speedbox, good to have this background knowledge.

  96. Speedbox

    Buccaneer
    #2983284, posted on April 9, 2019 at 2:33 pm

    …….emissions targets that make even Ferarri and Rolls Royce take up the electric bandwagon.

    Several years ago, Ferrari produced their first hybrid electric car, the La Ferrari. At the time their (now former) Ferrari President and Chairman Luca di Montezemolo said “You will never see a Ferrari electric because I don’t believe in electric cars, because I don’t think they represent an important step forward for pollution or CO2 or the environment.”

    At the time I thought “I wouldn’t be so sure about that”.

    Anyway, in late 2018, Ferrari announced they will produce the world’s first electric supercar.

    …..but also Hydrogen,

    The Japanese, in particular, seem quite keen on hydrogen power.

  97. RobK

    With heavy equipment an electric transmission is cheaper and better to control. Viz 300t HaulPac, any number of modern ice-breakers, deisel electric locomotives.

  98. struth

    I have posted numerous reports about the assorted legislation (overseas) either enacted or proposed that will kill off the ICE. I have watched with interest the resultant issues (ie California) and sniggered at France (remember that the yellow vest protests were originally about diesel price rises). I read about the EV issues in Norway (who are not in the EU), but also look to the announcements of the EU and the UN IPCC.

    You haven’t seen the resultant issues yet, the cars are only a small percentage of the cars on the road.
    When they are forced to be driven and are to be taken up as fast as Bill wants, then you will see the resultant issues.

    There are no great percentages of electric vehicles to yet cause the ruination I am talking about.

    I have been all over Europe recently and driven the autobahns and byways and hardly an electric car to be seen, in the big scheme of things.
    They love Ford Mustangs now they can get them, I did notice!

    I have posted numerous reports about the assorted legislation (overseas) either enacted or proposed that will kill off the ICE.

    And what I am saying to you, is while the electric vehicle is such a substandard, therefore subsidised car, that if they kill off the ICE , not even completely, the west will fall, completely.

    Bill’s authoritarian approach , if he signs the target , is the complete death warrant for Australia.
    And then, there will be fuck all new anything being bought!

    The electric car needs to be subsidised and fuel needs to be taxed and ICE vehicles taxed to make them a viable alternative.
    But , even then, they are not a viable alternative for the needs of most people and the needs of western first world nations to operate, without complete ruination.

    I’m agreeing with you but finding it had to put into words.

    If we pulled the ICE vehicles off the roads of this nation tomorrow, without a viable replacement that could do the job it does, our nation would collapse , overnight.
    Completely collapse.
    If we replaced them with a vehicle that could do three quarters of what ICE vehicles can do, our nation would still collapse , overnight, such is our dependence on this refined , high performance, relatively cheap invention.
    The EV is not a viable replacement.
    It can do SFA in comparison.

    You may as well buy a frigging horse and cart, seriously.
    That’s why they are and will be only small percentages of the vehicles on the world’s roads.
    When they are forced on us in large numbers, our nations will completely collapse.

  99. duncanm

    dover_beach
    #2983294, posted on April 9, 2019 at 2:40 pm
    How do they expect people in the country to cope when the Nissan Leaf can’t travel 300km highway driving?

    Solar charging stations with integral humpy ?

  100. struth

    I have posted numerous reports about the assorted legislation (overseas) either enacted or proposed that will kill off the ICE. I have watched with interest the resultant issues (ie California) and snig gered at France (remember that the yellow vest protests were originally about diesel price rises). I read about the EV issues in Norway (who are not in the EU), but also look to the announcements of the EU and the UN IPCC.

    You haven’t seen the resultant issues yet, the cars are only a small percentage of the cars on the road.
    When they are forced to be driven and are to be taken up as fast as Bill wants, then you will see the resultant issues.

    There are no great percentages of electric vehicles to yet cause the ruination I am talking about.

    I have been all over Europe recently and driven the autobahns and byways and hardly an electric car to be seen, in the big scheme of things.
    They love Ford Mustangs now they can get them, I did notice!

    I have posted numerous reports about the assorted legislation (overseas) either enacted or proposed that will kill off the ICE.

    And what I am saying to you, is while the electric vehicle is such a substandard, therefore subsidised car, that if they kill off the ICE , not even completely, the west will fall, completely.

    Bill’s authoritarian approach , if he signs the target , is the complete death warrant for Australia.
    And then, there will be fuck all new anything being bought!

    The electric car needs to be subsidised and fuel needs to be taxed and ICE vehicles taxed to make them a viable alternative.
    But , even then, they are not a viable alternative for the needs of most people and the needs of western first world nations to operate, without complete ruination.

    I’m agreeing with you but finding it had to put into words.

    If we pulled the ICE vehicles off the roads of this nation tomorrow, without a viable replacement that could do the job it does, our nation would collapse , overnight.
    Completely collapse.
    If we replaced them with a vehicle that could do three quarters of what ICE vehicles can do, our nation would still collapse , overnight, such is our dependence on this refined , high performance, relatively cheap invention.
    The EV is not a viable replacement.
    It can do SFA in comparison.

    You may as well buy a frigging horse and cart, seriously.
    That’s why they are and will be only small percentages of the vehicles on the world’s roads.
    When they are forced on us in large numbers, our nations will completely collapse.

    And you can’t say snig…gered, that’s why you were put in moderation.

  101. Buccaneer

    The bigger the vehicle, the easier it is to put a bigger battery in, I think you will find that EV SUVs will go further. The leaf was always designed as a city car. However, I do have the obligatory half wit lefty uncle who swears by his Tesla, drives it from Melbourne to Sydney but has to stop overnight to make the trip. Also, won’t admit to having to watch the charge meter all the time too in case he uses too much A/C or heating. What’s the point of being able to do 0-100km per hour in 4 seconds if you have to stop on the road 5 km later cause you cant find a charging station?

    He also has no hesitation stealing power from people to charge his overpriced virtue wagon.

  102. duncanm

    Electrickery can do great things in the right environment. Witness the Porsche 919 le-mans winner souped-up for lap records.

    But that is not an EV – it relies on internal combustion for power, much like a diesel-electric locomotive.

  103. RobK

    DB,
    How do they expect people in the country to cope when the Nissan Leaf can’t travel 300km highway driving?
    I expect hybrid utes initially, then EV utes with optional range extender in the back, which maybe any fuel and could incorporatehttps://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Free-piston_enginetechnology due to its simplicity and light weight.

  104. Leo G

    Electric motors have better torque characteristics than diesel motors for a similar size. That’s why they pull big locomotives.

    Big locomotives typically use a diesel engine driving a generator, which in turn powers 6 electric traction motors, each in turn driving an axle via pinion and bull gear.

  105. Buccaneer

    Fuel cells are also coming, possibly powered by hydrogen converted from Ammonium. The problem with Hydrogen being that the molecules are so small they are hard to contain, you also need to pressurise it a lot to put it in a fuel tank. High pressure, small molecules – that stuff leaks out of an environment with large temp variations an high vibrations (like a car) very easily. If you can convert ammonium into hydrogen in vehicle and use it in a fuel cell, hey presto, problems solved. However, no one has this production ready and ammonium is highly corrosive.

    In short Bill is a Dill.

  106. Buccaneer

    Gas turbines are also a possibility for hybrids, they never worked in cars because they take a long time get into their power range. But a parallel hybrid arrangement could work for them as the electric motor does the work. Also see Miller cycle and a small rotary engine could also work too.

  107. struth

    I didn’t realise we were short of oil.

  108. Speedbox

    Struth

    Bill’s authoritarian approach , if he signs the target , is the complete death warrant for Australia.

    To be clear, Shorten’s plan, by 2030, is utter bullshit. Australia’s 2018 sales of EV’s amounts to 0.3% of all car sales in this country. A rounding error! His proposal that EV’s achieve 50% of new vehicle sales by 2030 is absurd. Truly stupid. The 2030 estimates by the EV industry itself is 40% of all new car sales where they have been preparing and promoting EV’s for a decade! Even the USA had EV sales of 2% in 2018.

    And Shorten thinks we will sneak up and overtake them – from a standing start. Laugh, I nearly cried.

    If we pulled the ICE vehicles off the roads of this nation tomorrow, without a viable replacement that could do the job it does, our nation would collapse , overnight.

    Yep, but that’s not planned and has never been suggested. The evolution to EV’s will be a 20 year proposition, which has been my whole point of the electricity system funding. I 100% agree that the ICE cars cannot be arbitrarily withdrawn and millions of EV’s plugged in. The system would collapse. But over 20 years, Govt (especially a Labor Govt) will throw whatever money they think necessary at patching the electricity network, introducing yet more renewable energy (God help us) whilst promoting EV’s. Over 20 years, the money that can be spent is gigantic and nobody will ultimately be held accountable. Shorten will have long since retired.

    And you can’t say snig…gered, that’s why you were put in moderation.

    Yeah, see what you mean.

  109. RobK

    ammonia is highly corrosive.
    And toxic, and flammable. But it and hydrocarbons are fairly easily stripped of H. The problem with fuel cells (one of the problems) is contamination and poisoning of the membranes. They work well in labs and satellites under very controlled (expensive) conditions.
    An ICE, by comparison, can be made to run on coal dust.

  110. Buccaneer

    Since when did the ALP measure policy efficacy by it’s actual success anyway? They are just toeing the globalist line in trying to push more of the proles to public transport, walking and cycling. Don’t you know it’s good for you? There’s an obesity epidemic you know… In their minds the death of personal transport will free up all that wasted money on roads to give their mates a “Living wage”

  111. notafan

    He also has no hesitation stealing power from people to charge his overpriced virtue wagon.

    That seems to be a characteristic of virtuous EV drivers.

  112. notafan

    Norway just exports all its fossil fuel.

  113. To be clear, Shorten’s plan, by 2030, is utter bullshit. Australia’s 2018 sales of EV’s amounts to 0.3% of all car sales in this country. A rounding error! His proposal that EV’s achieve 50% of new vehicle sales by 2030 is absurd. Truly stupid. The 2030 estimates by the EV industry itself is 40% of all new car sales where they have been preparing and promoting EV’s for a decade! Even the USA had EV sales of 2% in 2018.

    They know they need to get traction by then or the global warming movement, and in turn modern socialism, is basically fucked.

    Say by 2030, if there is no sea level rise, people are going to stop caring, the “mitigate at any cost, but no nukes” crowd are going to sound like any other millenarian doomsday cult.

    They’ve made many promises about this deadline. They basically are bounced chequed deadbeats on their last credit card.

  114. Speedbox

    possibly powered by hydrogen

    A few years back Toyota and Kia played with hydrogen for cars and Honda are still messing about with it. Hydrogen for other (larger) vehicles could be a distinct possibility.

    But, more recently, the global manufacturers seemed to have an epiphany (surprise!) and concentrated on electric cars. Thousands of designers, engineers and tens/hundreds of $billions later, every manufacturer including Toyota, Kia and Honda will present a growing stable of EV’s to the market over the next few years.

    That’s one of the reasons I say that the ‘fix is in’.

  115. Buccaneer

    Also, there is a whole Convenience industry just watching and waiting for a slice of the action.

  116. Buccaneer

    This might also shed some light on where the future might lie for informed investors?

  117. Dr Fred Lenin

    Using Norway as an example is deceitfull ,Norway has hydro power in abundance ,unlike us who are having our proper reliable sources destroyed to make the carpetbaggers richer ,the whole thing is criminal and should be stopped and those involved chsrged with fraud and jailed for life .

  118. Speedbox

    Holy crap. £70,000 AFTER Govt subsidy. And only 14 places to top up the tank in the entire UK.

    Hedging their bets maybe? Hyundai/Kia are proposing 31 to 38 EV models by 2025/6.

    (Link doesn’t work).

  119. Speedbox

    On the other hand, perhaps they are test beds for a new iteration or something entirely different.

    Remember the early EV’s and how people laughed and said how limited, power hungry and were useful only as metro taxis (not to mention pig ugly) which was all true. They were effectively test beds although Toyota sold a good number of Prius, which probably surprised them as much as anyone.

  120. Duncann
    Is you post #2982785, posted on April 8, 2019 at 10:04 pm accurate. If not could you re-post with revised number?

  121. Nob

    Dr Fred Lenin
    #2983384, posted on April 9, 2019 at 4:19 pm
    Using Norway as an example is deceitful ,Norway has hydro power in abundance

    Thanks to about 1000 high dams.
    Norwegian greenies oppose building dams.

  122. Nob

    There are a plethora of media and online sources quoting the most booster-ish numbers for EVs.

    % of new sales, % per 1000 people etc etc.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electric_car_use_by_country

    Look at the last column on that link above.

    Only in 2 countries do they exceed 1% of registered passenger vehicles – Norway (10%) and Netherlands (2%). (You can’t just say “on the road” for Netherlands because so much of their traffic is international through-traffic)

    I can’t see how many are second vehicles or how many privately-owned instead of company/NGO or government (all levels) owned.

    Hard to see any detailed figures for Australia but it appears there are about 5000 EVs registered out of a total 19.2 million registered vehicles..

  123. RobK

    https://m.techxplore.com/news/2019-04-concept-hybrid-heavy-duty-trucks.html
    Hot off the press.

    Now, researchers at MIT have devised a new way of powering these trucks that could drastically curb pollution, increase efficiency, and reduce or even eliminate their net greenhouse gas emissions.

    The concept involves using a plug-in hybrid engine system, in which the truck would be primarily powered by batteries, but with a spark ignition engine (instead of a diesel engine). That engine, which would allow the trucks to conveniently travel the same distances as today’s conventional diesel trucks, would be a flex-fuel model that could run on pure gasoline, pure alcohol, or blends of these fuels.

    While the ultimate goal would be to power trucks entirely with batteries, the researchers say, this flex-fuel hybrid option could provide a way for such trucks to gain early entry into the marketplace by overcoming concerns about limited range, cost, or the need for excessive battery weight to achieve longer range.

    Not unpredicted.

  124. RobK

    Not unpredicted, but still in concept stage.

  125. Buccaneer

    Don’t you love how the ALP acolytes are trying to turn Bill’s EV gaffe into a story about how the LNP opposes EV’s. A reminder of how badly Bill stuffed it from the industry.

  126. Buccaneer

    Some numbers on electric vehicle sales.

    According to the European press release, the plug-in Escape (dubbed Kuga there), can be recharged in about four hours with a household 230-volt electrical supply. – This is a car with a 14.4 kWh battery, so tiny compared to dedicated EVs. An insight into one of the major challenges to EVs.

    “We’ve got unreliable power, coal-fired predominately and very expensive power at the moment, so you put half the vehicles on Australian roads on the grid at the moment and we’re going to have big problems.

    We haven’t got our head in the sand about electric vehicles, but we need to be realistic about the timeframe.

  127. duncanm

    Alan Moran
    #2983429, posted on April 9, 2019 at 5:12 pm

    Duncann
    Is you post #2982785, posted on April 8, 2019 at 10:04 pm accurate. If not could you re-post with revised number?

    Alan – AFAIK, I just screwed up the first small part regarding target CO2 emissions:

    First – burning petrol produces about 2.3kg/l CO2, so tits wants cars to be doing about 1 l/100km by 2025. a five-fold improvement on current best performance in 5 years. Good luck with that.

    That’s wrong.. as I said in the next post:

    Sorry – numbers on the fuel consumption are wrong. 4.5l/100km is about 105g/km.. that’s actually quite doable, but needs no government ‘help’.

    the rest of it is fine. Numbers from wiki or ABS.

  128. Nob

    notafan
    #2983278, posted on April 9, 2019 at 2:22 pm
    To be honest, I expect it will be many years (like lots) before a viable electric heavy truck will be available.

    They’ll come up with something innovative like electric tracks to run them on

    No business in its right mind would even consider committing anything time-critical to the bottlenecks and chokepoints of a rail system.

    Especially not such a limited, union-controlled one like Australia. Chaos.

    Believe me, I have looked at it, since it’s technically feasible for shipments Perth to Darwin.
    In every case, slower than trucks and more expensive than airfreight. (for a few pallet boxes)

  129. Diogenes

    Given our lack of local diesel, and abundance of coal maybe we need these (1 minute in) steam electrics

    https://dailymotion.com/video/x5qow0d

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