Election 2019: It’s on

May 18 is the day.

The starting point is:

  • Sportsbet  have Labor at $1.16 and Coalition at $4.85 to win the election.
  • Labor are favourite in 94 of the 151 seats.
  • The Coalition are tipped to win 51 seats with 6 going to other parties.

Labor have a tad over 80% probability of winning the election on those figures.

Mark the Ballot does very nice number crunching using polling data and the like. His best estimate (from last week) is that the Liberals have no chance of winning the election.

Of course things can change quickly during an election. I’m not convinced that they will but the government has landed some significant blows on the opposition in the past week or so and are hoping to run Labor down.

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61 Responses to Election 2019: It’s on

  1. Karabar

    The probability that the Uniparty will form government is 100% then.
    Not necessarily the case for the senate.

  2. struth

    The government has landed no punches at all.
    The labor party are whacking themselves.
    I said whacking.

  3. stackja

    BS is Kev Deja Vu.
    Chaos to follow.

  4. MACK

    Brexit, Trump and the NSW result show that people are unwilling to admit unPC views to pollsters, so the polls are not reliable. Either side could swing votes with effective policies or attack ads at any time, so guessing the winner at this stage is a waste of time.

  5. Bruce of Newcastle

    LNP: Moah windmills, solar panels and EVs!
    ALP: Moah windmills, solar panels and EVs, and a cure for cancer too!

    What a stonkingly marvellous choice. Can we start flight shaming them now please?

    ‘Flight shame’ has Swedes rethinking air travel (10 Apr)

    “Flygskam”, or flight shame, has become a buzz word referring to feeling guilt over the environmental effects of flying, contributing to a trend that has more and more Swedes, mainly young, opting to travel by train to ease their conscience.

    Whoever the new PM is should immediately require MPs to travel everywhere by public transport or EV, especially on long trips which cause the most CO2 emissions.

  6. Paulo Nigrum Anatis

    is that the Liberals have no chance of winning the election.

    And there’s nowhere to emigrate to! We’re trapped!

    Seriously though, if the electorate’s memory is so short to forget the abysmal dysfunctionalism of the last ALP government and budget blowout that took years to remedy and the most of the main players are still aboard that rickety ship; and want to trust the snake who politically assassinated two ALP PM’s, then they deserve all they get!

    I wouldn’t be so quick to write the LNP off. Now the election forces people to distil in their minds what they have been ignoring for the past few years, they may not be in such a hurry for another episode of ‘back to the future’.

    Shorten has a real one dimensional image problem, he’s just not believable and his delivery is about as exciting as a bedpan. He’s got to get a message across that isn’t ‘ho hum…. this again’ and so far he’s failed miserably. His personal popularity is dismal and as PM will only fall further. That’s what always happens, and Malcolm showed how quickly it can happen; and maybe enough voters will see the ensuing instability is well on the cards yet again, and don’t want a bar of it.

    I don’t see Morrison having a similar image problem, and many I speak to seem to share that view. He’s the first leader in many a year untainted with political blood. Don’t underestimate that in the public’s mind in the overall mix. We shall see.

  7. C.L.

    Don’t know about all y’all but I’m sticking strictly to my intention of voting non-Liberal. I’ve noticed a lot of commenters have drifted back into the LWBW* camp and therefore propose a prudential vote for Morrison and co. I still think the Liberal Party needs to be institutionally annihilated. The difference between the two wings of the Uniparty is only one of infinitesimal degree.
    ——————-
    * Labor would be worse.

  8. LNP: Moah windmills, solar panels and EVs!
    ALP: Moah windmills, solar panels and EVs, and a cure for cancer too!

    Eggsactly.

    Those few extra promises will give the ALP a 50+ seat majority.

  9. A Lurker

    Whoever is voted in we still end up with a politician.

  10. Big_Nambas

    Bill Shorten knows “You will never go broke underestimating the intelligence of the average Australian voter”.
    If Labor lose this election it will go down as the most surprising loss in history.

  11. Pete of Perth

    Postal vote for me. Put the bastards last.

  12. Vagabond

    Regardless of the outcome, I expect it’s too much to hope for that the libs will move to expel the Turd and any of his kin on May 19. They should have done it a long time ago.

  13. Robber Baron

    I will vote AusCon in the HOR and PHON in the Senate here in the newly renamed seat of Cooper (named after an indiginie who’s claim to fame was taking a piss on an electric fence and electrocuting himself) formerly Batman.

    This seat is deep green socialist dross. I’ve already seen Ged Stalin Kearny posters around. I won’t be able to walk down the High St without some junior communist wearing a green shirt telling me that the Earth has less than 10 years to live or some middle-aged Stalinist telling me that Morrison is litterally Hitler.

    Please God, may l win tattslotto so l can travel to a country that will not report on Australian politics until the election is over.

    BTW l welcome my new Stalinist CFMMEU thug overlords.

  14. GBees

    The Libs only have to completely dump the climate change fraud. Everything. If they did they’d be a in with a show; but we know that they won’t so they’re toast.

  15. wal1957

    I’m with C.L. at 10:18. The Libs don’t deserve another crack until they clear out the dross.
    As for those who say Labor would be worse. Ha!
    The only differences I see is how quickly they will turn us into Venestralia.
    I will vote for a minor conservative party. The Libs/Liebor /Greens will be last on my ballot.

  16. Infidel Tiger

    Real Mark Latham
    @RealMarkLatham

    I stand with Israel Folau in defending his right to free speech, expressing views consistent with his legitimate religious beliefs.
    That a footy player can be hounded by Leftist-PC media this way is a disgrace.
    It’s a reason why I will be introducing Religious Freedom Bill in NSW

  17. Infidel Tiger

    Pyne, Bishop, Turnbull, Banks, O’Dwyer , Laundy are gone!

    Fair bit of dross has already walked the plank.

    Now we just need the queer mafia in Sydney to be shafted.

  18. John Constantine

    What’s the bet that their turnmerkel will campaign more relentlessly, with more enthusiasm this election than last election.

    To make sure all non turnbullite liberals are replaced by greens and shorten looting cartel orcs.

    How much money will he spend on revenge and buying influence in the true balance of power party?.

    If enough turnbullites are elected in the senate, then shorten can rule with their support and ignore the minor parties.

    Consensus compliance with paris, Comrades.

  19. Arky

    Now we just need the queer mafia in Sydney to be shafted.

    ..
    Who’s going to do that?
    You?

  20. Buccaneer

    NSW election was predicted to be 50-50 even on polling day. Looks like it will end up 53-47 to the libs. That’s outside the margin of error. If Newspoll is at 52-48, the Libs are in with a chance.

  21. The BigBlueCat

    wal1957
    #2984811, posted on April 11, 2019 at 10:54 am
    I’m with C.L. at 10:18. The Libs don’t deserve another crack until they clear out the dross.
    As for those who say Labor would be worse. Ha!
    The only differences I see is how quickly they will turn us into Venestralia.
    I will vote for a minor conservative party. The Libs/Liebor /Greens will be last on my ballot.

    In an election when the choices are very bad (LNP) and atrociously bad (ALP), we should go for the lesser of the two … but with a clear message in our Senate voting that neither will get a clear run without significant review. Voting for a minor conservative party in the lower house might satisfy your conscience but only do it if their preferences put Greens and ALP last.

    I fully expect that the ALP will crap in their nest during the election campaign (they’re already doing it with their class warfare), but I fear it won’t be enough to swing people away from them. If the ALP do get in, we’re in for a rough ride.

  22. The BigBlueCat

    C.L.
    #2984766, posted on April 11, 2019 at 10:18 am
    Don’t know about all y’all but I’m sticking strictly to my intention of voting non-Liberal. I’ve noticed a lot of commenters have drifted back into the LWBW* camp and therefore propose a prudential vote for Morrison and co. I still think the Liberal Party needs to be institutionally annihilated. The difference between the two wings of the Uniparty is only one of infinitesimal degree.
    ——————-
    * Labor would be worse.

    I dunno … yes the LNP needs a collective enema to clear out the crap, but they remain a better hope than the minor parties who just don’t have enough sway in the lower house. I’m not sure how the Senate looks, but if the minor conservative parties can manage to win the balance of power (doubtful I know) then Labor might be held in check. In certainly would be interesting to see the boot on the other foot ….

  23. John Barr

    NOW HEAR THIS.

    The How to Vote Card is only the party’s idea of how they want you to vote. There is no compulsion to follow their suggestion.

    How you vote, & in what order you place your Preferences, is in your hands & your hands only. No Party can tell you where to place your Preferences. That is for you & you only to decide.

    Tell the big Party’s where to shove their Voting Preference Cards. Follow you own head & Heart.

    VOTE & PREFERENCE WHO YOU WANT. NOT WHAT THEY WANT.

  24. Tim Neilson

    In an election when the choices are very bad (LNP) and atrociously bad (ALP), we should go for the lesser of the two … but with a clear message in our Senate voting that neither will get a clear run without significant review. Voting for a minor conservative party in the lower house might satisfy your conscience but only do it if their preferences put Greens and ALP last.

    It’s a really difficult question for those in a seat where the incumbent is a truly ghastly Photios Party turnbullite career politician.

    If the Photios Party is permitted to continue to exist as the only real alternative to Labor, but with Mick Trumble acolytes in the ascendancy, then Australia is doomed.

    Perhaps a concerted campaign of joining the Photios Party and dumping the filth at preselection? Appalling I know, like having to crawl through a sewer to breach the walls of the besieged city. And also with the Photios Party’s track record of the elites overriding the rank and file it might not succeed.

    My own view is that there’s no chance of the Photios Party winning this election so it’s a golden opportunity to wreak axe-murderous electoral havoc on all of the green/left fifth columnists pretending to be “conservatives”.

    So if I were living in a seat where a Trumble faction Photios stooge was the incumbent I’d be voting minor conservative/libertarian with the incumbent last – hoping that the Photios Party has sufficient lower-primate level intelligence to understand the message of conservative/libertarian voters preferencing virtue-signalling treasonous leftist Photios careerists even below the Peanut Head/”minimum wage” Di Natale wing of the cartel.

  25. Dr Fred Lenin

    Dont forget Cats put the sitting uniparty MP last on the ballot paper ,and all three wings of it ,”lib” alp,gangrenes ,last on your senate vote . Fill the senate with more crazy unrealistic morons to add to those already there . Make the country ungovernable,that will stop them from further ruining it . Keep it that way untill people with common sense ,populist nationalists come to the fore .
    Place the sitting member last on your ballot paper,destroy career politics and parties (gangs) .

  26. sabena

    The election result will tell us whether Turnbull’s removal was a plus electorally or not.I think it will be shown to be a plus.
    Turnbull is clearly going to snipe from the sidelines-I think this will be counter productive.
    Shorten deserves to lose on his electric vehicles proposal-it doesn’t pass the pub test and is reminiscent of the NBN-but the Liberals have shown a talent for not going hard on the obvious.

  27. So the beginning of the end of Australia begins. Whoever wins, we lose.

  28. W Hogg

    If any “scientist” calculates an election probability at much less than 1 in 100,000 but it’s trading at $;.85, that tells you what you need to know about their scientific rigour and the value of their services.

  29. W Hogg

    The problem with voting for the Corrupt Yoonyun Official Party is the message the Libs take away from an electoral disaster. Will it be
    A. Our core is punishing us and we should be better OR
    B. The electorate voted in a landslide for radical gender theory, $600bn of Unreliables subsidies and massive tax increases.

    If someone can explain to me how to avoid a misconception making the Malcolm-Julie-Julia party worse, let me know.

  30. Stefan Frodsham

    Whoever the new PM is should immediately require MPs to travel everywhere by public transport or EV, especially on long trips which cause the most CO2 emissions.

    That’d make WA’s long overdue secession a certainty. Bring it on!

  31. Rebel with cause

    US polling showed Hilary Clinton had a 90% chance of victory.

    The probability of a Coalition win is not zero. The Sportsbet odds would suggest it is about 21% as we stand today.

  32. Ubique

    Whoever the new PM is should immediately require MPs to travel everywhere by public transport or EV, especially on long trips which cause the most CO2 emissions.

    That’d make WA’s long overdue secession a certainty. Bring it on!

  33. Shy Ted

    Cheer up SloMo, 5 weeks and 3 days and the pain will be over.

  34. Ubique

    I reckon the crazed electric cars boondoggle is Shorten’s jump the shark moment. While it might go down well in a few inner city seats, it’s an absolute stinker elsewhere.

  35. Ubique:
    Labor and the Bill are so sure of themselves they will romp it in, that they’ve been kicking own goals for over two months.

    Australian Federal Election
    Next Election – Sworn in Government
    Coalition @ $4.25 – $1000.00

    Australian Federal Election
    Next Election – Sworn in Government
    Coalition @ $5.50 – $1111.11
    That will be a nice little payout.

  36. Macspee

    That’s what Hilary said.

  37. The BigBlueCat

    Tim Neilson
    #2984843, posted on April 11, 2019 at 11:25 am

    ….

    So if I were living in a seat where a Trumble faction Photios stooge was the incumbent I’d be voting minor conservative/libertarian with the incumbent last – hoping that the Photios Party has sufficient lower-primate level intelligence to understand the message of conservative/libertarian voters preferencing virtue-signalling treasonous leftist Photios careerists even below the Peanut Head/”minimum wage” Di Natale wing of the cartel.

    Unfortunately, I am in a very safe Labor seat, Tim. You can tell that by the distinct lack of pork-barrelling … though the promised high-speed rail between Melbourne and Geelong might help a bit (but that’s only an effort to keep Sarah Henderson in her seat). So my vote for the Lower House will only ever be a small token protest vote against Labor, who really don’t care how I vote.

    So my only hope is that Labor loses control in the Senate, and the Senate does to Labor what Labor has done for the last 6 years. On the basis of the issues that effect me most, the LNP policies are far more favourable to me and mine than anyone else’s, except perhaps the Australian Conservatives and independents who are against Labor’s policies.

    I hope the Greens do badly and are not (re)elected – they can just f*ck off.

  38. Percy Popinjay

    a lot of commenters have drifted back into the LWBW* camp

    Yeah, no. Thanks to compulsory preferential voting in the lower house I’ll be spoiling my ballot (I live in one of the safest labore seats in the country) and voting once above the line in the senate.

    The gliberals need (and thoroughly deserve) to be electorally annihilated.

  39. Mark A

    C.L.

    #2984766, posted on April 11, 2019 at 10:18 am

    Don’t know about all y’all but I’m sticking strictly to my intention of voting non-Liberal. I’ve noticed a lot of commenters have drifted back into the LWBW* camp and therefore propose a prudential vote for Morrison and co. I still think the Liberal Party needs to be institutionally annihilated. The difference between the two wings of the Uniparty is only one of infinitesimal degree.
    ——————-
    * Labor would be worse.

    Funny CL, just as MV predicted.
    The man may be wrong on many things but he surely knows his voters.

  40. Mark A

    Percy Popinjay
    #2984988, posted on April 11, 2019 at 1:58 pm
    (I live in one of the safest labore seats in the country)

    Then why bother turning up?
    Other than to avoid a fine.

  41. John A

    Bruce of Newcastle #2984746, posted on April 11, 2019, at 10:01 am


    Whoever the new PM is should immediately require MPs to travel everywhere by public transport or EV, especially on long trips which cause the most CO2 emissions.

    Based on a radio interview snippet I heard featuring Dr Di Natale of the (official) Greens Party, I recommend that this idea be implemented by the Greens for the election campaign so that they can demonstrate their leadership to the other parties.

    I recommend bicycles, non-electric, and rowing dinghies or equivalent for travel to/from Tasmania (preferably South-wards only but we must allow them some freedom, I suppose).

  42. vicki

    When the CFMEU & the ACTU own a polling company used by SMH, I think we should be sceptical about the current distance between the parties.

    Morrison is working his butt off, & I suspect it is beginning to pay off as Labor gaffes emerge from a Party that is a little too sure of its polling position. The Electric Car debacle, in particular, struck at the Heartland who love the internal combustion engine – & their Twin can FWDs especially.

    I think the Libs will win Qld, but Victoriastan is a worry. But who knows? Support for the opposing Fed Party often follows the opposite choice in a State election.

    I’m leaning towards a Minority Coalition government. Hate “rainbow “ alliances, but the protest vote for Shooters, One Nation and others may tip the balance.

  43. Tim Neilson

    Unfortunately, I am in a very safe Labor seat, Tim.

    I’m in Adam Bandt’s seat, so am similarly irrelevant.

    Then why bother turning up?
    Other than to avoid a fine.

    To vote in the Senate. Forlorn hope I suspect but at least there’s some sense in doing that.

  44. Mark A

    Tim Neilson

    Then why bother turning up?
    Other than to avoid a fine.

    To vote in the Senate. Forlorn hope I suspect but at least there’s some sense in doing that.

    Fair enough, didn’t think of that.
    First time in many years that I can actually walk into a polling booth instead of using postal voting.

  45. Percy Popinjay

    Then why bother turning up? Other than to avoid a fine.

    To vote in the Senate. Forlorn hope I suspect but at least there’s some sense in doing that.

    Given the fine is all of $20 (unlike the $55 for not voting in state or local govt elections) it is very tempting not to bother. But, unlike most other elections, I do intend casting a valid vote even if it is only in the senate.

  46. min

    The difference this time is we now have all those post millennials who registered for SSM vote who would not have bothered. They are the ones with existential angst about dangers to humanity. But older wealthier demographics are now tinged green. Perhaps they all need a recession ,energy poverty and blackouts and hard times. Us real oldies have been through it before and we are resilient.

  47. Mark A

    min
    #2985146, posted on April 11, 2019 at 4:47 pm
    Us real oldies have been through it before and we are resilient.

    Due respect min, but that’s not the point, why should you be ‘resilient’ and do without?
    We should aim for prosperity for all, not enduring poverty and need imposed on us by our “betters”.

  48. Squirrel

    “May 18 is the day.”

    Which will make it the 45th anniversary of the 1974 (double dissolution) election.

    Even if we don’t have anything quite as significant as the disappearance of the DLP from the Parliament, let’s hope it’s as close, as a check on hubris, and to maximise election night entertainment.

  49. Tim Neilson

    Mark A
    #2985123, posted on April 11, 2019 at 4:27 pm
    Percy Popinjay
    #2985140, posted on April 11, 2019 at 4:43 pm

    In 2016 I also scrawled anti-Trumble obscenities all over my HoR paper. Utterly useless of course but it made me feel better.
    I don’t actually feel the urge to vilify ScoMo that way. I just think it’s counterproductive to cast a valid ballot for his clown troupe unless your local candidate is one of the few who at least make the occasional effort to promote some sanity.

  50. C. Paul Barreira

    Compulsory attendance upon a voting booth, and that after paying for the bastards’ lying propaganda. Unbelievable. And utterly illiberal.

  51. min

    Mark A the numbers are against us . I am doing something by contacting all the politicians I know or answering pleas for donations telling them the majority are not interested in economics and numbers .The only way is to attack their ideology is with smart funny remarks like the last time Labor produced a budget I had a mullet ( Josh) and laugh at their ideas.

  52. iamok

    I will write on my ballot papers as I did in Victoriastan last year – “there is no fucking point in me voting”

  53. egg_

    Bull Sh1tten has a cure for canker?

  54. Spider

    Sorry Shorten will romp it in. Labor and their surrogates will have no qualms whatsoever about stretching the truth (and in fact outright lying) while the Libs will once again take the high road to defeat. As I’ve said elsewhere Labor and the Greens greatest weapons are all the front groups which can push the boundaries on social media with clever memes while the Libs clunky attempts sink to the bottom.

  55. Zulu Kilo Two Alpha

    I just write “A plague on both your houses.”

  56. sabena

    Spider,
    “Sorry Shorten will romp it in.”
    History does not support that view.
    This is Shorten’s second election as opposition leader.
    Those who have one second time around are Menzies,Whitlam and Howard.Whitlam’s majority was relatively narrow-9 seats.
    Those who lost for a second time were Evatt,Calwell,Peacock & Beazley.In each case their second election performance was worse that their first.

  57. Tim Neilson

    History does not support that view.

    True, but I think things have changed in recent years.

    Every party that has formed a government from WWI up to 2007 won at least the next two elections, with two exceptions.
    One was the Scullin government that was overwhelmed by the disaster known as the Great Depression.
    The other was the Whitlam government that was overwhelmed by the disaster known as the Whitlam government.

    Since then we’ve seen RGR lose at the second attempt (after surviving the first attempt only through Windsor and Oakeshotte betraying their electorates), and Malcolm the Magician making 15 Photios Party seats vanish into thin air, holding office only because the Nats picked up a seat from the criminal wing of the Uniparty.

    I think that that volatility is the new normal.

  58. A Lurker
    #2984790, posted on April 11, 2019 at 10:35 am

    Whoever is voted in we still end up with a politician.

    …and yet you believe anarchy is unappealing.

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