May 18 is the day.
The starting point is:
- Sportsbet have Labor at $1.16 and Coalition at $4.85 to win the election.
- Labor are favourite in 94 of the 151 seats.
- The Coalition are tipped to win 51 seats with 6 going to other parties.
Labor have a tad over 80% probability of winning the election on those figures.
Mark the Ballot does very nice number crunching using polling data and the like. His best estimate (from last week) is that the Liberals have no chance of winning the election.
Of course things can change quickly during an election. I’m not convinced that they will but the government has landed some significant blows on the opposition in the past week or so and are hoping to run Labor down.