Election Market update

Mark the Ballot has an update of the probability of a coalition victory.

He says:

Interestingly, the odds for the Coalition have improved slightly since the election was called.

Not surprising. It is a two-horse race and you’d hope that each side would be competitive.

A couple of thoughts. Coalition victory is still less than 25%. Yes there has been an uptick, but everyone agrees that Shorten had a terrible week. For the government to get re-elected, there has to be a terrible week for the opposition every week.

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15 Responses to Election Market update

  1. stackja

    Can BS not talk for the rest of the campaign? Unless in tightly circumstances? Otherwise?

  2. stackja

    BS on radio saying pay rates don’t cause problems for employment.

  3. cuckoo

    I keep seeing yard signs in my neighbourhood of rich idiots (apart from the ones for Oliver Yates and ridiculous poseur Burnside) about voting to save the ABC, and how necessary the ABC is for democracy. Can one of these idiots tell me which party is actually campaigning to abolish or even rein in the ABC? I’d love to vote for them.

  4. Squirrel

    “For the government to get re-elected, there has to be a terrible week for the opposition every week.”

    I’m looking for a TV remote control with a mute button which can be programmed to activate automatically whenever BS starts speaking – I think it will be handy in coming years.

    I still reckon it’s going to be a short honeymoon, with buyer remorse kicking in very quickly – particularly from those (in the private sector) naive enough to think that the good old days of wages rising a couple of per cent ahead of CPI are coming back.

  5. a happy little debunker

    Miserable old ghosts are doing their best to deny any LNP return.

  6. Peter Castieau

    Working in retail and running for parliament I speak to a lot of people.
    My appraisal to date is that people from either side of the political divide are disenfranchised with the majors.
    These same people are concerned about retirees savings and investments.
    I know many a rusted on Labor voter and they won’t vote for the ALP because of Shorten.
    And needless to say I meet a lot of people who can’t support the Coalition and support either AC, PHON, ALA and others.
    At this stage of the campaign I’d say it’s too close to call. Shorten doesn’t have it in the bag (yet)

  7. stackja

    Squirrel – I only heard Hawke and Keating for a few seconds, on the radio. Then hit off switch. I mostly had TV sound off except for some shows.

  8. hzhousewife

    Working in retail …………….. I speak to a lot of people.

    My electorate is safe Lib despite a bit of an independant having a fling. Therefore I am reminding folk that we must be careful with our Senate votes, we do NOT have to follow the how-to-vote card, we need conservatives in the Senate to balance out the loonie greenies and independants who are not really independant. Plus, death duties/self-managed superannuation/false mediscare. Doing my best.

  9. hzhousewife

    Oh, and we know a very rusted on retired ex union delegate type person, always very CFFMEU T-shirt wearing type. See him every day. He is very quiet and demure at the moment, quite uncharacteristic. From this I gain small hope.

  10. Texas Jack

    I have my money on Morrison.

    People don’t realise betting odds move faster than lightning. Remember this? It was only as outlying counties in the Florida pan-handle started to reveal a rural wave of support for Trump that the Times election model turned tail and collapsed. It had predicted a Clinton win for months.

    Then there are some sobering realities for the ALP. Aside from Shorten’s consistently dismal approval rating nobody has gone on to win an election offering the kind of devil-may-care increase in the tax-take of this Opposition. And Shorten has proposed this while thumbing his nose at retirees, miners, mechanics, tradies, accountants, estate agents, News Ltd journalists…..

  11. mem

    My gut feeling is that people will now stay with the coalition. It seems that everything the Labor Party is offering is untested and a huge risk. And in many instances it is more than we want i.e. more unproductive and wasted climate money, more renewable energy, more migrants, more pressure on business, more taxes and ultimately more debt. Why vote for Labor?

  12. Rob MW

    Whilst they are valuing and redistributing other peoples money of everybody that owns anything the punters should, at the very least, be pretty scared of Bowen’s and Leonid Shorten’s mathematical skill set.

    The problem arises within this type of skill set that removes the equity of Hilux drivers and redistributing it to Hillman Hunter and P76 drivers and thinking that both a Hillman Hunter and/or a P76 can carry the necessary trade tools to keep the drivers off the dole.

  13. Rebel with cause

    Time for Labor to stop announcing policies and rely on the ABC to do their bidding.

  14. Dr Fred Lenin

    Bill Hews OOPS !sorry Shorten , is not performing very well is he ? Shoulda done a lawtrade course instead of MBA ,but probably not clever enough ,the lawtradespersons spend the first year at uni learning to be a barefaced liar without remorse ,stands them well in politics .
    Fjykayshin is important as a redheaded former boss of his used to say ,you know the one he agreed with .

  15. Ms Smith

    My gut feeling tells me that a definite Labor election victory or landside victory is BS. The ghost of Mr Turnbull, the wrecker has gone, and the past polls that reflected for 2 years (2016 election) that the Labor opposition hadn’t even been touched, scrutinized, UNTIL NOW is starting to show change in reality. Turnbull was IMO, wanting Labor to win. This election campaign has finally exposed everything that Labor has hidden policy wise, and Labor is destructive for the country.

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