Windwatch 26 April

Interesting 24 hour cycle, not a screen shot so it will change, the point to mention was the need for black coal to ramp up from 10.3 GW to 14.2GW between 2.30 and 6.30 when the sun was gone before the peak demand of 24GW. Black coal went down to 9.3GW at the 4am low point of demand at 17GW. Looking forward to life without Liddell?

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23 Responses to Windwatch 26 April

  1. stackja

    BS will ‘fix’ it.

  2. amortiser

    BS will ‘fix’ it.

    So now they are proposing cow pats as an energy source.

    That can’t be right. Cows are destroying the planet.

    I’m confused!!

  3. teamv

    Waiting for Liddle to close as well Sinc.
    It’s going to be a train wreck and they will still blame it on coal plants.

  4. Mark M

    At least droughts will be but a memory.

  5. Speedbox

    Yeah, good luck with that. It may transpire that the Government may declare Liddell an essential facility and compulsorily acquire it from AGL. To take approximately 1700Mw out of the grid is going to be a huge hit and two years from now, the power demands of the nation will have grown beyond what they are today.

    Remember last summer? Just 2-3 months ago we watched the AEMO and other websites as they detailed accelerating demand and skyrocketing prices as daylight faded (solar kaputt/wind useless) and huuuge amounts of electricity production being required. Without Liddell for summer 2022, prolonged rolling blackouts are a certainty. In summer 2018/19 we saw that the network was teetering and watched with a ‘morbid fascination’ as to whether wide-spread blackouts would occur.

    The peaks and troughs of electricity demand in our society are too significant and complex for renewables. Others here will give sound advice on how to protect your family and business – all I can think of is buy a reasonable size generator and have sufficient diesel fuel on hand.

  6. John bowyer

    Story in ABC complains AEMO is reducing prices for solar and wind and this could make them unprofitable? No mention of my prices doing anything but increasing an of course home solar subsidies have to increase or they won’t vote for us. So here I am facing continuing price increases but failing supply. Any idea when this all falls over?

  7. Iva Right

    Once baseload is gone it all falls over. And the stupid, stupid Australian electorate deserves all they get.

  8. Rossini

    Iva Right
    #2997697, posted on April 26, 2019 at 9:43 am
    You are Right Iva!

  9. Speedbox

    Yep. If Labor are elected and actually embark on their promise to achieve a 50% renewable energy target by 2030, it will be every man for himself. Even though Labor are unlikely to be in power by 2030, the damage they can do to the infrastructure in 3 or up to 6 years will be immense.

    Imagine by 2026/7 – Liddell closed; no new coal or gas fired stations under construction or contemplated; tens (hundreds?) of billions funneled into assorted renewable schemes that deliver “plated” but unreliable capacity; population growth, from whatever source, has seen another one million+ consumers added; the growth of ‘home’ solar systems has severely undermined the stability of the network; those without home solar are openly hostile over their increased supply bills; a special ‘equalisation fee’ is levied on home solar users diluting the financial incentive for solar; rolling national blackouts during peak periods in summer; community braces itself for summer 2027/28; average (non solar) home quarterly supply bill hits $2,500+; numerous deaths reported of elderly who cannot afford winter heating……

    Sound far fetched? If Labor follow through with their promise of 50% renewables, I have probably understated the consequences!

    Just to add a little ‘sweetener’ into this mix, throw in electric vehicles as we head towards the 2040 legislated abolition of new ICE car sales.

    (Chicoms offer to pay $1 trillion for a nationalised electricity system and will immediately reduce energy bills by 70%. All they ask in return is access to the former Adani site, an area nearby to Roxby Downs and a modest area in the Pilbara – oh, and and unfettered usage of certain ports and railways.)

  10. Mark M

    Q. Can renewables prevent climate change?

    2019; Solar takes biggest chunk out of grid emissions over summer

    https://reneweconomy.com.au/solar-takes-biggest-chunk-out-of-grid-emissions-over-summer-51265/

    Australia swelters through the warmest March on record

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-04-01/2019-hottest-march-on-record-in-australia/10959828

    A. No.

  11. Ben

    1. Incentives to reduce dependence on the grid – rooftop PV subsidies
    2. Incentives creating larger more expensive grid – distributed intermittent wind farm / solar farm subsidies
    3. Incentives to adopt electric vehicles increasing peak demand – plug in at 6pm

    1 contradicts 2 contradicts 3 – pushes maximum consumption (peak) into a fixed period where solar output is zero, so I all has to come from wind, gas and hydro are forced to recoup costs from a small window of opportunity

    3 will shortly max out the current carrying capacity of the cables in the streets

    We need a few blackouts to highlight the problems. I look forward to Liddell closing.

  12. Up The Workers!

    Rather than obtaining base-line grid capacity by burning low energy cow pats, how about feeding in every copy of B.S.’s Election Policy Speech into the generators.

    You’d get more high-octane bovine-excrement there, than you’d ever find in a ton of mere cow pats, to keep the generator discs turning.

  13. C. Paul Barreira

    It seems absurd—and in this day and age what is anything else—but perhaps the CFMEU will prove to be the only (vaguely) sane voice in the current federal election campaign, requiring Labor candidates to express support for coal-mining. Otherwise, as comments above tell so compellingly, the future is quite horrible and I say that as one who is already very cautious about heating any room (in Mount Gambier, SA).

  14. Ubique

    The beauty of free enterprise is that the market will come up with solutions when government fails. Watching the footy on TV the other day, I was startled to see an advertisement by Generac Australia for automated home electricity generators. They’re fully integrated, start up as soon as Government power fails, and run on gas.

    Beat unreliable, inefficient and intermittent renewables by having your very own fossil-fuelled power station at home! Soon no Aussie home will be complete without one.

  15. Ubique

    The emergence of home generators connected to your natural gas line does make you think about using one as a substitute for increasingly unaffordable, unreliable and intermittent mains power, rather than just as an emergency standby. Any technically minded Cats care to provide insight?

  16. Up The Workers!

    Ubique is right.

    I noticed a couple of nights ago that a company (name unknown) is once again advertising those “Snuggies”, or “Slankets” as they are sometimes known, which were sold here a few years ago, and are the ‘blankets with sleeves’, used by impoverished Australians whose meagre cash reserves don’t extend to shelling out for the grossly extortionate sums that multi-millionaire Green and Labor(sic) Leaders demand that we pay in order to heat our taxpaying-peasant homes as another freezing winter approaches.

    If the Government were to put a 50% levy on the taxes paid by all selfish Greenie/Labor apocalyptic catastrophist millionaires and virtuoso bovine-excrementalists, maybe the pensioners, the elderly, the superannuates, the unemployed and others could actually afford to heat their homes – because despite all the gillarding to the contrary, human breath just isn’t heating the world up at all.

    If the multi-millionaires-party A.L.P. is desperately short of cash and can’t afford the cost of this proposal, they could always embezzle the cash once again from those sucker H.S.U. members … there is a precedent, as I recall, as the A.L.P. and A.C.T.U. never bothered to pay back the last $20 million stolen by their criminal Federal President/Federal Senior Vice-President from that source…did they Bill and Ged???.

  17. Speedbox

    Ubique
    #2997854, posted on April 26, 2019 at 1:12 pm
    I was startled to see an advertisement by Generac Australia for automated home electricity generators.
    ….having your very own fossil-fuelled power station at home! Soon no Aussie home will be complete without one.

    Yeah, stunning isn’t it. Australia in 2019 and there are several companies flogging these generators (or diesel ones) that can be hard wired into your home. A modest 6kVa costs about $1,500 which would be enough for your airconditioner, fridge/freezer (depending how big they are) and some lights. Or, splurge a few thousand dollars and have enough power to light up your house like a Christmas tree. When the power goes out in your district, turn on every airconditioner/light/TV and piss off the neighbors – perhaps invite them over to talk about politics and renewables!

    I will bet my socks that homes ‘boasting’ wired in generators will be a sales feature in a few years.

  18. JB of Sydney /Shanghai

    I think Mrs JB and I will be spending more time in Shanghai in the near future. Lots going for it as a place to live. An economy which is going gangbusters, electricity cheap as chips, fuelled by Australian coal, very low crime, no stupid politics…. what not to like?

  19. JB of Sydney /Shanghai

    I think Mrs JB and I will be spending more time in Shanghai in the near future. Lots going for it as a place to live. An economy which is going gangbusters, electricity cheap as chips, fuelled by Australian coal, very low crime, no stupid politics…. what not to like?

  20. RobK

    Ubique,
    ……think about using one as a substitute for increasingly unaffordable, unreliable and intermittent mains power, rather than just as an emergency standby. 
    Standby is one thing, but generating all your own electricity is only for the very keen. Diesel and gas small engines have a limited wear life and really require batteries and inverter. Using combined heat and power can be very efficient in winter. It really is only economic if there is no grid or you are a dedicated enthusiast.

  21. RobK

    That said, a simple change over switch to run a back up genset is a good plan. (Having a pilot light to indicate a return of the grid is a good idea) . Automatic interlocked change over setups will often disappoint because it is expensive and complex. They require as much or more maintenance than a basic rotary change over switch.

  22. Lawrence Ayres

    At 8.55 Saturday all the fossil fuel plants are operating near or exceeding 100% . Loy Yang for example was running at 107%. That’s on a Saturday morning. We are in for monstrous blackouts in the near future. Of course there could be even greater productive use of electricity if it was affordable in irrigation and manufacturing. None of the politicians include the loss of production in their discussions of power requirement. It is easy to say we have enough when people stop using it because it costs too much but then again this is what the UN and communists want; the deindustrialisation of the economy.

  23. rayvic

    “Once baseload is gone it all falls over”.

    Once baseload looks under threat, the big industrial power users will be coerced into cutting back demand in the hope òf averting blackouts along the lines of the rêcênt Victorian catastrophe.

    But hơw long and hơw often would thế big users be prepared to cut back demand, especially ás power prices would kêêp climbing with higher renewables pênetration? They would promptly close their Oz operation and move offshore, where neighbouring Asian governments would welcome them.

    Sadly, there is no abundance of Australian politicians courageous enough to stand up to the dysfunctional policies of climate change hõax groupthink.

    Thanks to the disinvestment and disappearing job opportunites that power shortages would cáuse, the demise of Áustralia to underdeveloped country status already appears well entrenched.

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