Election 2019 Update

The latest betting market data suggests a change in government is likely.

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61 Responses to Election 2019 Update

  1. Bruce of Newcastle

    Often a shy righty effect will mean it’s better for the right party than the data might otherwise suggest.

    Unfortunately the leftwards-oozing LNP have abandoned the shy righties, so I suspect the polls in the HoR will be more accurate than usual in recent elections.

  2. dd

    A change in government is likely.
    On the other hand, nothing is guaranteed in elections, and the betting odds tend to just follow the polls. Rather than containing new information they usually echo and amplify existing information.

  3. John Constantine

    The stockmarket has been pricing in a greens looting and vengeance revolution for a while.

    Small miners with no wymynsys on the board except the company secretary, and a colonialist exploitation business model of digging Australian minerals up and selling them. Bleak future.

    Comrades.

  4. egg_

    The latest betting market data suggests a change in government is likely.

    Tits would have to get caught dry rooting the pie lady in broad daylight to lose this election.

  5. egg_

    dd
    #3004310, posted on May 4, 2019 at 5:58 pm

    Good to see you around.
    Murdoch turned the tables for Howard-lite Krudd in ’07.

  6. egg_

    shy righty effect

    AKA “the late swinging conservative voter” – probably gave the win to Trump.

  7. egg_

    Small miners with no wymynsys on the board except the company secretary

    Teh big miners usually have fat sheilahs in acres of hi-viz doing the red tape tick-and-flick, Comrade.

  8. Roger

    I suspect a consensus among bookmakers is more authoritative than a consensus among scientists.

    In which case, God help us.

  9. egg_

    I suspect a consensus among bookmakers is more authoritative than a consensus among scientists.

    Is there a Union of Concerned Bookmakers saying Gaians are wrecking the planet?

  10. Ubique

    There was a consensus among bookmakers that Donald Trump would lose. But Scott Morrison isn’t Donald Trump, so this time I’m keeping my money in my wallet.

  11. Exit Stage Right

    Be very afraid if Bull Shitten aka Billy Liar gets hold of the levers.
    I live in hope that common sense will prevail amongst the electors but I admit that I live in a sheltered world.
    Too many leaners, not enough lifters.
    The Palachook Govt in Qld have already spent the Royalties from Adani several times over, but are still blocking the mine go ahead. Bill is not happy with Jackie Trad. Hopefully this will be a turning point in the Federal election. I suspect Qld will punish Labor for their State counterparts making such a critical move on Adani two weeks before the election.

  12. Dr Fred Lenin

    The old saying. Manny Lyons wouldnt set a bet like that , applies to this fiasco , one gang of incompetent career polliewankers agin another bunch of incompetent wankers , Hobsons choice . Put the sitting member last . The morality of the 1900s is lost ,the aparat has assumed power , destroy the aparat by refusing to comply with their orders ,like the Russian people did in the 90s , the gilets jaunes in France , and the Brexit party in the UK , Trump will support you . Its time for change destroy the narxist fascists .

  13. I’m still sticking with my prediction from 3 weeks ago: the coalition will retain government.

  14. Texas Jack

    Shorten doesn’t have a clue or a chance. He’s attacked every sector outside of childcare workers, and every demographic outside LGBTIQWTF millennials – who wouldn’t vote for the Coalition in a pink fit. Most tellingly, he’s attacked those of us who drive Ford Rangers. That bit is a very idea, and it will make all the difference in places like Herbert and Lindsay and Indi. Sharman will take Wentworth. Abbott willcruise home in Warringah. Dutton will hold. lingiari will turn CLP.

    Trust me…

  15. Perfidious Albino

    Turnbull must hate that chart…

  16. egg_

    Shorten doesn’t have a clue or a chance.

    He certainly has all of the charisma of a union thug.

  17. Dr Fred Lenin

    God! what have the honest Taxpayers of Australia done to be afflicted with this pitifull crew of unknowing career polliewankers to afflict more pain on the productive Taxpayers ? . This pitifull crew of arrogant wankers are the greatest ad for abolishing career polliewankers we have ever seen . Do a gilets jaunes thing. Put the sitting member last on the ballot paper ,put thewind upthe arrogant cretins .make this Our Trump Moment .
    Read in Ie Monde the fascist macron gang are fitting up the gilet jaunes leaders to destroy their right to protest , like the anti Brexit fascists in the UK .

  18. Zulu Kilo Two Alpha

    He certainly has all of the charisma of a union thug.

    Bill Shorten has all the charisma of a urinary tract infection.

  19. sfw

    I feel sick, the Libs have lost any idea of who they are or what Liberalism is and hope that ruining the nation slower than Labor is all that is needed. I was confident to put my money on Trump and won. I can’t place a bet on this election but I have a feeling that we’ll have a minority gov of some sort.

  20. tgs

    When the dude in my electorate capmiagns as a “modern liberal” I know it’s time to stockpile beans and ammo. Kek.

  21. Linden

    Any body got any clues re the Senate, what kind a dog breakfast mixed grill will that turn to be? I hear Tom Eillott 3AW on his radio program saying there is good indications that Clive Palmers ads are resonating with many of the younger of the voting age? Palmer has had some wizz kid doing the adds. I wonder how true that is and what follows. Like that old Chinese proverb,’may you live in interesting times’. The only thing I am sure of is if that if Machiavellian Bill becomes the PM I don’t want to be doing what I and my partner are doing right now, retirement can’t come quick enough. I wonder how many other people in business feel the same?

  22. miltonf

    Linden do we just vote for 12 senators again?

  23. miltonf

    The country’s never recovered from the RGR Trumble debacle and if the SLF gets in I think we totally f*ked. I don’t like Palmer (remember has secret dinner with Trumble and Parkinson?)

  24. Linden

    Good question, no I think it would be 6 as they ‘half senate’ elections normally. I think it only happens when there is a double disillusion of parliament?

  25. miltonf

    That’s what I’m thinking- shouldn’t be too hard to find 6 reasonable candidates to vote for. I’m in a labor seat so will probably vote for no one in the HoR.

  26. Linden

    You could get some good odds with Sports Bet et~all re a recession within two years or what ever tickles your fancy, under Machiavellian Bill. If you’re inclined to place a bet lol.

  27. miltonf

    I heard the guy talking to Tom Elliot on 3AW too- interesting. Noticed that he was disillusioned with Palmer. But still, you can’t help asking the question ‘could UAP be any worse than the uniparty?’

  28. Linden

    Like the cartoon I saw, ‘Vote for the Muppets, you’re going to get one anyway’!

  29. Boambee John

    Linden
    #3004594, posted on May 5, 2019 at 7:55 am
    Any body got any clues re the Senate, what kind a dog breakfast mixed grill will that turn to be?

    Vote conservative or anti fascist-left minor parties in the Senate. Exhaust your preferences below the line to avoid accidentally giving some time server your vote.

    I would like to see an enlarged Senate cross bench looking like the Mos Eisley cantina scene in one of the early Star Wars shows.

    Let someone like fat Clive be the sanest Senate cross bencher!

  30. Peter Castieau

    From my Friday campaign update that I posted on Spacechook

    Yesterday at pre-poll the most profound comment so far from a voter. It was early afternoon and this guy of about 63years who had just voted, walked past us and turned around and said:

    “I think I’ve just voted at the most important election of my lifetime. And I see two things…one that wants to preserve and save, and the other who wants to spend and be reckless. One is wearing Blue and the other Red.” with that he turned around and walked off to his car.

    Profound dont you think?

    Maybe we are voting in the most important election of our lives. I must say I hadn’t thought about it in that context.

  31. Big_Nambas

    You will never go broke underestimating……………………………………………………………
    I speak to lots of people and NONE admit to supporting Shortarse or have anything nice to say about him, so who is going to elect him???

  32. Sinclair Davidson

    You have to vote for 6 above the line or 12 below the line in the Senate.

  33. miltonf

    all the appeal of a fart in a lift

  34. Linden

    Well that fellow is right. My partner is preparing to sell her business, and it has served us well over the years because we have put the work in. What is so evident that is the only people looking to get into business are the Asians and Chinese, we have not had one inquiry from any ‘Australians’. I can only guess that being in business means you’re not part of union, and the Australian worker is more concerned about his penalty rates more than anything else. You only pay penalty rates to the people who you employ, there are no penalty rates for being in business and besides Mr Machiavellian Bill Shorten says nobody should work on weekends, that is for quality time with family. Funny how everybody expects business to open 24/7 these days!

  35. Dr Fred Lenin

    Did the odds on the libs shorten ( haha ) after turnbull got the flick? Im sure he would be a millstone around their necks ,a sure liability on any thing he touches .
    Australia is lucky we have two clinton families ,,the extremely well off rudds with their version of the clinton foundation ,and the turnbulls with their vengefull spite topping up juniors hedge fund with the climate con ,God Help Australia we need it .

  36. Natural Instinct

    What is so evident that is the only people looking to get into business are the Asians and Chinese,

    We have university professors cutting and dicing for identity politics on all manner of subjects.
    How about doing this study and then we can argue what it means socio/cultural.
    And as a complement do a study of those receiving benefits. Or would that be against HRC rules?
    .
    Lifters and leaners anyone?

  37. RobK

    Presently there’s very little wind or demand on the east coast. Pick the states that run on coal vs those on wind and gas.
    Price. QLD NSW SA. VIC. TAS
    Energy$48.95 $53.90 $107.53 $116.77 $110.96

  38. LNP 40 seats or less.

    No (silent) base.

  39. mh

    My Qld Senate ballot might be

    1 Fraser Anning’s Conservative National Party
    2 PHON
    3 …

    Damn it, can’t find another 4.

  40. We have university professors cutting and dicing for identity politics on all manner of subjects.
    How about doing this study and then we can argue what it means socio/cultural.
    And as a complement do a study of those receiving benefits. Or would that be against HRC rules?

    Usually anti-immigration cranks bring up “social” and “culture” when they’ve had their arse handed to them on economics.

  41. Linden:

    What is so evident that is the only people looking to get into business are the Asians and Chinese, we have not had one inquiry from any ‘Australians’.

    Several times in the last decade, I’ve looked at the offerings/chances for setting up a business. Each time I’ve been stymied by the tax office/regulatory burden/government rules changes.
    No one with a fully functioning brain would want to go into business in this country.

  42. mem

    egg_
    #3004343, posted on May 4, 2019 at 6:58 pm
    The latest betting market data suggests a change in government is likely.

    Conservatives by definition aren’t gamblers. That is, unless they can see the money falling into their pockets. As things get closer there will be a swing the other way. Just remember the bookies need to make a living too. I’m going with the Lib Coalition but will wait until the odds improve a bit more until I place my fictional bet.

  43. miltonf

    Regarding running a business in Oz, I think having your family working in it can save a lot of hassles. But as Winston says, with the dead hand of bureaocracy, I’m amazed people are still prepared to do it.

  44. mem

    Best article yet on Bill Shorten’s shortcomings from Paul Murray. Includes this quote,”After a week of slipping and sliding on his electric car promise, Shorten showed us the credibility of his policies in that radio appearance:

    “What we’ve said is that by 2030 we would like to see half of the new cars sold be electric. That doesn’t mean that that will happen.”

    So not only are we meant to accept that we won’t know what his promises will cost, but we are not meant to expect that they will be met.”
    “I am reminded of Hawkie’s “No child shall live in Poverty” promise.

  45. Linden

    Yes I can empathize with that, we are registered with many Federal Govt regulatory bodies, and have user names passwords and authorized operator codes. The one constant thing is change change and change all the while more compliance for this and that. No wonder it will takes months to bring the ‘new people up to speed on all of that.

  46. Linden

    The industry we are involved in, that is exactly what is happening. Over the past 10 yrs all of these businesses that have changed hands that I know of; with either Chinese folks or Indians buying them; they run them with all their extended family members so the jobs for ‘others’ that where once there with the previous owners are quickly lost. I have seen where they will keep one very experienced employer back, that is to teach them and once they feel confident that job also goes. The powers to be in charge of all this stuff is trying to put in place a system so that can know who is who in these businesses. It is well know that in the extended family they often only one identity user name password or authorized code to complete ‘official’ transactions. It would appear that same person works every day and never takes a holiday or day off for anything!

  47. Gbees

    yeh, yeh … sure thing. The betting markets got the US election correct … not … 2016 US Election odds

  48. mem:
    I think you may may misremembered that:
    “I am reminded of Hawkie’s “No child shall live in a carbon emitting car” promise.

  49. Gbees:
    Wish I’d known about the 16:1 odds they were offering.
    Had to settle for 5:1 in Australia.

  50. Pyrmonter

    @ Gbees

    Indeed. It should be recalled that in 2001, the final pre-election Newspoll had Labor on 53.

    I fear however, that I am clutching at straws, and keep bringing to mind Bruce Anderson’s optimism in the Spectator about the turn-out of ‘shy Tories’ in the lead up to 1997. It didn’t happen. The reality is Turnbull was behind, but by much less than Morrison has ever been. Both the fact of the leadership shenanigans and the very idea of elevating an authoritarian, big government Nat like Dutton to the PM’s role has frightened off a lot of middle Australia, and not without reason. That merry band of Queensland regionalists and mates of Barnaby have delivered government to the AWU minion. Slow clap.

  51. Ms Smith

    Linden 7:55am If it is anticipated that Labour will win, then we need a strong Senate that will retaliate against the impending cruel policies of Labour. I welcome a senate with One Nation, Aust Conservatives, and other right wing candidates, and pray that the far left Greenies are reduced to a phone booth size. PS Clive Palmers candidate for Warringah, when debating on Sky News Paul Murray recently, mentioned that she believed in renewable energy, so therefore is that Clive Palmers UAP party policy also? After all, Clive Palmer was happy to welcome and stand next to Al Gore in parliament in 2014, promoting climate change and renewables. His time in parliament in the past, while directing his candidates in the Senate, seems to show that he gave support to Labour to block any reforms that Tony Abbott tried to implement. I would not trust him in 2019 because he criticises both Labour and Liberal, yet will preference both Labour and Liberal.

  52. Ms Smith

    mh

    #3004680, posted on May 5, 2019 at 10:24 am

    My Qld Senate ballot might be

    1 Fraser Anning’s Conservative National Party
    2 PHON
    3 …

    Damn it, can’t find another 4.

    What about Australian Conservatives? (Cory Benardi)

  53. Linden

    Thanks Ms Smith, interesting but scary at the same time.

  54. Cementafriend

    For senate everyone should vote below the line and leave out the greens and ALP. In NSW vote 1/ Molan, in Qld Malcolm Roberts, in SA Cory Bernadi party ie conservative, in Tas Steve Martin (nationals), in Vic James Patterson (lib) follow by one nation, in WA one nation followed by conseratives then nationals

  55. Explorable

    In Victoria put the Senate libs last behind Fraser Anning conservative nationals then PHON then AC.
    Look at Anning how to vote page and modify it to suit. Power to the Senate

  56. Destroyer D69

    You have to vote for 6 above the line or 12 below the line in the Senate.WRONG..WRONG WRONG Secs 268[A] and 269 pf the Electoral act are VERY specific that a vote of “one or the number 1 or more in squares above the line” and “any of six squares below the line” “is not informal”. Please read it for yourself to confirm the quotes. A query to the AEC will also confirm this belief.

  57. vicki

    The non- mainstream contenders in the bookies’ predictions are not really delineated – just “independents” etc.
    How can they not specify how UAP will do?

    Personally, I think that the primary vote for the 2 major Parties will be VERY close & that the preferences of Clive, in particular, will probably get the Coalition over the line.

  58. mem

    Was on the hustings today outside two polling booths one in morning one afternoon. The Greens are pushing how to vote in the Senate. From observation most voters don’t have a clue about senate voting so may well fall into the Greens trap. The numbers voting early is enormous and unexpected with long queues even after lunch time. Based on observation the election will be tight.

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