Monday Forum: May 6, 2019

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3,097 Responses to Monday Forum: May 6, 2019

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  1. Steve trickler

    The added sound is subjective, the vision is stunning!



    A bit of biffo at 12:20. A punch up! …. it is on! ( :

  2. Fisky

    The only mistake Neil made was not spending more time on Shapiro’s involvement in Michelle Field’s fake assault allegation against Cory Lewandowski. This could seriously have buried Shapiro’s reputation among the Right. He did touch on it, but he really needed to nail the fast-talking little shit on that issue.

    We must re-litigate Never Trump forever and not let these people forget their history!

  3. Robber Baron

    Custard. I have looked at the ballot for the division of Copper where l am enrolled. Kevin Bailey gets my vote in the senate.

    HoR. I’m still undecided as all parties are of the left so a drawing of a hairy penis looks like the way to go.

  4. Tel

    The current trade deficits are irrelevant.

    Only the myopic or economists would look at them.

    That’s not what your buddy Trump says … and I quote:

    To understand why trade reform creates jobs, and it creates a lot of them, we need to understand how all nations grow and prosper. Massive trade deficits subtract directly from our gross domestic product. From 1947 to 2001, a span of over five decades, our inflation-adjusted Gross Domestic Product grew at a rate of 3.5 percent. However, since 2002, the year after we fully opened our markets to Chinese imports, the GDP growth rate has been cut in half.

    But is this mean for Americans? Not good. For every 1 percent of GDP growth, we failed to generate in any given year, we failed to create over one million jobs.

    What a waste, and what a sad, sad thing.

    http://time.com/4386335/donald-trump-trade-speech-transcript/

    Besides that … the overall trend in US trade deficits is more important than the immediate number on any one day. The trend is inescapably towards bigger deficits. It’s been going that way since long before Trump, but it continues under Trump. The USA is systematically selling the farm.

    The confusion that Trump has is this: more people working for a given level of production implies each person produces less. Work has negative utility. Now, here’s where it gets tricky … from the government perspective people out of work means more Food Stamps, more free healthcare and other payouts. From the government perspective getting that person into work means they pay income tax and to hell with the efficiency. Government is not society, and anyhow society is not a decision making entity.

  5. JC

    Besides that … the overall trend in US trade deficits is more important than the immediate number on any one day. The trend is inescapably towards bigger deficits. It’s been going that way since long before Trump, but it continues under Trump. The USA is systematically selling the farm.

    Trade deficits are basically a mismatch between domestic savings and domestic spending. That’s it. There’s not much else to it.

  6. JC

    Does anyone recall the deficit scare in Australia during the 80s, with Keating calling the country a banana republic? We’ve continued to run current account deficits since then. Is Australia worse or better off econ0mically?

  7. Tel

    Trade deficits are basically a mismatch between domestic savings and domestic spending.

    Guy loses his job … knows the wife will be real cranky never have sex again and probably divorce him. What to do?

    I know the answer! Pretend to go out to work each morning, sit in the park with the pigeons, and put the grocery bill on the credit card. Another job will probably come along … wife never needs to know. This is brilliant. There might be a temporary mismatch between domestic savings and domestic spending, but that’s nothing to worry about. Right?!?

  8. Mitch M.

    The USA is systematically selling the farm.

    The other issue Tel is that when a country let’s go of uncompetitive industries because of “comparative advantage” it runs the risk of losing the training ground to provide the necessary expertise that enables the creation of new industries or the resurrection of previous lost industries. So the country can enter into a downward spiral because there is no industry to allow the development of expertise. Japan, Korea and China developed advanced technologies and engineering initially under the protection of government and still do so to some extent so it is not surprising that are so far ahead in the manufacturing game. We lost our car industry and will never get it back.

    Earlier tonight I read an article which contained interviews with a number of psychologists who were at the forefront of warning the the terrible state of research and hence the creation of so many false positives. It is about time economists fessed up and admitted that all their theorising does not reflect the real world. It is worse than psychology because at least that profession is trying to correct errors but economists won’t even admit their fallacies.

  9. Tel

    We’ve continued to run current account deficits since then.

    No, we have oscillated over the years at various times between surplus and deficit. Recently we have been pulling in chunky surplus under ScoMo. It’s not a reliable thing but it happens.

    https://trademinister.gov.au/releases/Pages/2019/sb_mr_190205a.aspx

    For the USA it’s ALWAYS a deficit, or has been for a long, long time at any rate. Australia could not afford to do that for so long. Impossible!

  10. RobK

    So the country can enter into a downward spiral because there is no industry to allow the development of expertise. 
    This is a problem. Many improvements are small tweaks or a string of small tweaks by practitioners, rather than some game changing discovery.

  11. zyconoclast

    The Latinx Drag Queens Spearheading HIV Activism on the Border

    We went to a Texas border town battling a major HIV epidemic to meet the activists working to educate people about the virus.

  12. 132andBush

    Stumbled on this tonight thanks to Steve Trickler.
    Sydney is a little ripper.
    Kids react to ACDC

  13. JC

    Tel

    You may be confusing trade and current account deficit. The Australian current account has been systemically in deficit all that time.

    Here. Tab “max”

  14. JC

    We lost our car industry and will never get it back.

    We never had a car industry. It was a union boondoggle that Abbott courageously put an end to.

  15. zyconoclast

    We never had a car industry. It was a union boondoggle that Abbott courageously put an end to.

    Kim Carr gets back into car making

    Kim Carr has doubled down on Labor’s support for the local electric vehicles sector, announcing a $57 million pledge to help build a new local automotive industry centred on technology and research and development.

    If Labor wins the election on May, the funding would go towards Labor’s electric vehicle manufacturing and innovation strategy that aims to “grow the jobs and companies of the transport future”.

    A big chunk of the cash – $30 million – would focus on increasing Australia’s role in electric vehicle R&D through the Advanced Engineering and Electric Mobility Research and Development initiative.

    A further $25 million would go towards grant funding for research, commercialisation and enterprise capability development in vehicle electrification for the local components sector, and to the research sector.

    Shadow industry minister Kim Carr said with the right policies in place, there was the potential for large-scale job creation in the electric vehicles industry in this country.

    “We have an enormous opportunity, which was highlighted in the recent senate report, to attract new investment and new employment in electric and hydrogen vehicles, by either making full vehicles or component parts for vehicles,” Senator Carr told InnovationAus.com.

    “On the basis of the independent modelling by the Australian Institute there are 30,000 jobs on the line here. These are high quality, high skilled blue collar jobs.”

    The jobs created through this push will include software engineering and other digital-focused roles, he said.

    Labor has said that much of the automotive supply chain has still remained in Australia despite the decline of the industry, and can be “rebuilt to service the new EV and component manufacturing industry”.

    The Opposition pointed to Nissan manufacturing parts for its fully electric car, Leaf, in Melbourne, Bosch building recharging infrastructure in Melbourne, and Brisbane playing home to a world-leading manufacturer of charging stations as the “green shoots” of the industry in Australia.

    It also said that the Liberals had “goaded the major car manufacturers to leave Australia”.

    But Industry Minister Karen Andrews hit back at this claims, saying the car industry in Australia had been doomed during Senator Carr’s last stint as Industry minister.

    “Kim Carr and Labor like to blame others for the closure of auto manufacturers in Australia but the fact is the fate of Australian auto production was already sealed when Senator Carr himself was industry minister,” Ms Andrews said.

    “Labor makes grand promises that are never delivered, and Aussie taxpayers are left to pay for it. Labor’s history on manufacturing speaks for itself, under the last Labor government one in eight manufacturing jobs were lost.”

    The remaining $2 million of Labor’s $57 million commitment has been set aside for the establishment and running of a sodium-ion battery manufacturing plant in Geelong, in collaboration with Deakin University.

    The Opposition also committed to help local companies create design and manufacturing jobs in electric and hydrogen automotive plants. It would appoint a Supplier Advocate to coordinate the overall transition plan, and give spending preference to suppliers developing design, R&D and EV capabilities.

    “It’s about using the best science to help develop the technologies to push down the prices for EVs and to set the standards to make the new vehicles and the powering systems safer. It’s about providing support for research, design and manufacturing,” Senator Carr said.

    “There are opportunities to be part of a global automotive industry if we have the right policy settings.”

    An Electric Vehicle Innovation Council, compromising industry, unions, government and researchers, would be formed to develop a national electric vehicles innovation roadmap and to map out the broader supply chain.

    The strategy wpuld focus on electric vehicle charging equipment assembly, component manufacture, design, engineering and research. The Opposition pointed to electric vehicle manufacturing already occurring in Australia as evidence that the industry has a start locally.

    The announcement follows Labor’s National Electric Vehicles policy package which was unveiled in early April. The centrepiece of the package was a electric vehicles target of 50 per cent of all new care sales by 2030, along with a 50 per cent target for the government fleet by 2025 and tax deductions for businesses purchasing electric vehicles.

    “You have to be able to embrace the future and not be in fear of the future and the contrast between Labor and the Liberals is that we want to actually provide a bridge to the future, and having the best science to develop the best technologies to push the prices downward, to set the standards and to make sure the technology is safe and fit for purpose.”

    The Morrison government has committed to develop an electric vehicles strategy that would “ensure a planned and managed transition to new vehicle technology and infrastructure so all Australians can reap the benefits”. This would be completed in mid-2020 if the Coalition wins the upcoming election.

  16. JC

    Right?!?

    No.

    Here’s another issue to consider. Why does a country have a trade surplus? The answer is that savings are moved overseas to seek superior marginal returns on capital. In other words a country running a trade surplus also must carry a deficit on the capital account and the reason is that it has relatively inferior rates of return on capital… at the margin.

    The US has the highest rates of return on capital than pretty much anywhere else in the world. No fucking wonder money moves there. It also helps to have the biggest guns and therefore reserve status.

  17. Mark A

    Mitch M.
    #3009594, posted on May 10, 2019 at 10:49 pm
    The other issue Tel is that when a country let’s go of uncompetitive industries because of “comparative advantage” it runs the risk of losing the training ground to provide the necessary expertise that enables the creation of new industries or the resurrection of previous lost industries.

    It’s a vexed question, unfortunately it always comes down to the current mob of politicians.
    Do they see the long term advantage of the nation by keeping the industries or the momentary euphoria of being able to buying cheap junk?

    If you look at what the profiteering stock market money men want, there is no contest, profit is king and stuff the proles.
    Let them learn to code or become tourist guides.

    Best we can hope for is a long lasting world peace. An everlasting one is out of the question.
    Imagine the US or Britain converting non existent car or machinery-engineering factories at the time of WW2 for producing aircraft and war equipment.

    We’d be all speaking Japanese. (not that there is anything wrong with that)

  18. I know the answer! Pretend to go out to work each morning, sit in the park with the pigeons, and put the grocery bill on the credit card. Another job will probably come along … wife never needs to know. This is brilliant. There might be a temporary mismatch between domestic savings and domestic spending, but that’s nothing to worry about. Right?!?

    Your analogy has absolutely no relevance at all.

    The sum of the capital account and current account are always zero. (Americans tend to say that CA stuff is financial account stuff – they ignore the CA but we ignore the FA more or less).

    For the USA it’s ALWAYS a deficit, or has been for a long, long time at any rate. Australia could not afford to do that for so long. Impossible!

    It depends on productivity and the causes of that productivity. We can afford it because it means other people fund it. There is no predicate that any of this is borrowing or that aggregating actions makes any sense at this level. You shouldn’t be surprised that investors invest in US financial assets and more directly in Australia.

    There isn’t even a real need to measure any of this. Freely floating currency rates can account for cash flows and pricing; on a gold standard the internal pricing mechanism would still apply. The only reason why it ever mattered was so that central banks could account for and exchange gold reserves as specie flowed.

  19. JC

    Oh and the other thing… the US is the largest and these days perhaps the only tax haven in the world. Although the douchebag Americans busted open every single tax haven in the world and were the antagonists in creating Common Reporting Standards, they never signed up to CRS. It means that if you’re not a terrorist, drug dealer etc… the US will not report your income there to another government. The US may be a force for good, but they are also fucking arseholes at times.

  20. Zulu Kilo Two Alpha

    There’s a certain amount of uncouth chortling going on, here , tonight.

    Numbers Bob, Australia’s most reluctant conscript, spends all his time raving on about one Donald J Trump, and how he was deferred from being called up because of his bone spurs.

    Ricardo Bosi, ex – Lieutenant – Colonel of Australian Special Forces, dedicates his new book to one Donald J Trump, and says “who in time will be known as one of the United States’ most heroic presidents.”

    Sorry, Numbers Bob, I know who I’d believe, and it ain’t you.

  21. Tel

    Mitch M. #3009594,
    What you are describing is called “path dependence” if you want to search out economics buzzwords.

    The original idea of comparative advantage was that some resources are fixed. For example, California will always be warmer than Alaska. If you want to grow oranges, California always beats Alaska no matter what you do. That’s simply optimizing against a fundamental fixed background that no one can ever change.

    However, not much of a modern economy consists of growing oranges. Increasingly it comes down to technology, infrastructure and human brains. Those things are fairly portable, and it is possible to be so completely better at everything that you don’t give a stuff what the other guy is doing. Sure, the comparative advantage shows itself in as much as one guy can sell himself cheap, but at some stage it still isn’t worth hiring the cheap guy because he doesn’t produce anything you want.

    Read Paul Ormerod’s book “The Death of Economics”, it discusses the idea of positive feedback and how that destroys all of classical economics.

    I should also point out that economists strangely did not give up and retire, even though Ormerod’s book has been around for years. Negative feedback, and especially diminishing returns often creep back in again.

  22. Steve trickler

    I submit this to the National Film and Sound Archive.



  23. max

    Fisky
    #3009545, posted on May 10, 2019 at 9:55 pm
    It’s incredible that a citizen of this country would straight up support the PRC over the US.

    Yep. Last night SBS news led with the Iran story and used some dick from the Lowy Institute to talk about how dangerous the US was.

    It’s so relentless. Driven by treacherous media.

  24. Tel

    The sum of the capital account and current account are always zero.

    Sure.

    If I don’t have a job, then the sum of what I’m spending and the change in my credit card balance are also always zero. I spend $100 (that’s a positive) and my card goes $100 further into debt (that’s a negative). Sum is zero … accounting still works.

    Capital account surplus for a country means either foreigners are buying your assets, or you are writing IOU notes to foreigners which is nominally also an asset being sold although not physical. Either way you are going into debt, but if the foreigner owns a physical asset then the debt is backed by something.

  25. Tax policy is easy.

    Tariffs are particularly bad because they distort more at a low rate because of effective rates of protection. Tariffs are just another tax anyway. You want to avoid taxes on capital and nuisance taxes. You also want low administrative costs. That seems very obvious and most people understand that a Laffer Curve is tautologically true – it is like a total revenue curve for a business.

    Most politicians know all of this and we’d be better off with a pure VAT, land taxes and royalties only. Income taxes have higher dead weight loss but not that of nuisance taxes like payroll, tariffs, excise, stamp duty and the like. High income taxes, besides being taxes on capital, make skilled workers work less, particularly those with a very high wage and high hours (and whose individual labour supply curves can bend backwards at the high end).

    I’ve mentioned before that mining and agriculture have the highest inter-industry multipliers, it is probably not coincidence that agricultural has a low effective rate of protection (assistance) and mining usually faces a negative ERA. The ERA measures all tariff and non-tariff measures and subsidies, and accounts for cascading tariffs that increase the effective rate of protection.

    Given that tariffs hit our most productive industry with the strongest export earning capacity quite hard, it would be rather risky setting policy that would worsen this situation.

  26. Tel

    We never had a car industry. It was a union boondoggle that Abbott courageously put an end to.

    That is how it turned out … but not necessarily the only possible outcome.

    Crying over the spilt milk won’t help. The Japanese and South Koreans make some bloody good cars.

  27. Resource mobility does not mean comparative advantage does not exist. It means that endowments change. Endowments are not analogous to comparative advantage, even if that can roughly and in the short run be said to be true.

    The idea that diminishing returns and negative feedback wasn’t considered until 20 years ago is quite frankly absurd.

    Read Paul Ormerod’s book “The Death of Economics”, it discusses the idea of positive feedback and how that destroys all of classical economics.

    ???

    Classical economics was destroyed by Jevons, Carl Menger, Mill, Wicksell, Cournot…

  28. Fisky

    Protectionism was a real disaster for the U.S. in the 19th century!

  29. zyconoclast

    The Japanese and South Koreans make some bloody good cars.

    Especially Mazda

  30. Fisky

    Oh it wasn’t? OK, maybe it was a disaster for Japan and South Korea in the 20th Century. No?

  31. Knuckle Dragger

    Bleeding Christ you blokes.

    Can we start talking about poofs again?

  32. Fisky

    It is clear that the best policy mix is high external taxes and low internal taxes. Also, very low immigration. Libertarians have it all backwards!

  33. JC

    Fisky
    #3009619, posted on May 10, 2019 at 11:29 pm

    Protectionism was a real disaster for the U.S. in the 19th century!

    The US had no other taxes. The origins of the US Navy was that it actually privately funded. Think about that! It didn’t mean rich people had their own private navy. They financed the government effort to start a navy with private contributions.

  34. Mark A

    Tel
    #3009617, posted on May 10, 2019 at 11:26 pm

    We never had a car industry. It was a union boondoggle that Abbott courageously put an end to.

    That is how it turned out … but not necessarily the only possible outcome.

    That is how I see it, spineless govs. let it go to rot.

  35. JC

    All paths to hell are paved with good intentions, Fisk.

    We ended up having to gain approval from the RBA in order to purchase foreign currency to go overseas. We had import quotas as well as duties. Markets became so distorted that depreciated second hand Porches, for instance, could be sold at a premium to new models because of wait times.

    Some APS prick could decide what the import quota for a particular make and model would be for the year.

  36. mh

    Donald J. Trump
    @realDonaldTrump
    ·
    13m
    Looks to me like it’s going to be SleepyCreepy Joe over Crazy Bernie. Everyone else is fading fast!

    Correct. When does the Dem nominee get finalised? I was thinking of betting but don’t want to wait a year.

  37. Knuckle Dragger

    My mutant sister on the other side of the country put a FB post up about Princess Megs and how awesome she was appearing in white two days post partum. The poster (shared by the sister) then went into graphic detail about the damage inflicted on her lady bits during the birthing process.

    Copious amount of applause followed from the girly-girls.

    I got on the post and mentioned that women not long ago were working in the fields with two day old babies, and that Megs should stop having her photo taken, do the decent thing and make her bloke a sandwich.

    I know none of the coven involved, although I assume they’re FB mates with sis.

    This should carry me through till dawn, at least.

  38. Tel

    The US has the highest rates of return on capital than pretty much anywhere else in the world. No fucking wonder money moves there. It also helps to have the biggest guns and therefore reserve status.

    Up until Trump came along their official interest rate was zero! The only place lower was the EU and they were forced to engineer negative interest rates which means they were literally destroying capital.

    Guns might make a difference … but when it comes to push and shove on the ground the Russians did OK in Georgia 2008, Crimea 2014 (not an annexation no matter how many times US propaganda wants to repeat that, but equivalent to Kosovo in as much as the majority wanted separatism), Syria 2015-2018 (big turnaround in the fight against Islamic State). In relative terms, the US Navy isn’t as dominant as it used to be.

    If you are looking at genuine growth in capital it has happened almost everywhere except the USA. Look at Vietnam in terms of growth … it’s huge. Look at South Korea. Heck even look at Eastern Europe like Estonia etc. Look at Ireland and even take into account the losses they made in 2008 their long term growth trend is still better than the USA.

  39. JC

    That is how I see it, spineless govs. let it go to rot.

    That’s actually not true. There was the Button plan that was supposed to save the car industry for the long term. It didn’t and each job in that industry cost the taxpayer 50K a year.

    Look, why don’t you give it a burl. Start your own car manufacturing plant. No one is stopping you.

  40. Tel

    The US has the highest rates of return on capital than pretty much anywhere else in the world. No fucking wonder money moves there. It also helps to have the biggest guns and therefore reserve status.

    Up until Trump came along their official interest rate was zero! The only place lower was the EU and they were forced to engineer negative interest rates which means they were literally destroying capital.

    Guns might make a difference … but when it comes to push and shove on the ground the Russians did OK in Georgia 2008, Crimea 2014 (not an annexation no matter how many times US propaganda wants to repeat that, but equivalent to Kosovo in as much as the majority wanted separatism), Syria 2015-2018 (big turnaround in the fight against I-s-l-a-m-i-c State). In relative terms, the US Navy isn’t as dominant as it used to be.

    If you are looking at genuine growth in capital it has happened almost everywhere except the USA. Look at Vietnam in terms of growth … it’s huge. Look at South Korea. Heck even look at Eastern Europe like Estonia etc. Look at Ireland and even take into account the losses they made in 2008 their long term growth trend is still better than the USA.

  41. US tariff rates actually went down significantly from 1828 to 1861, the rate was lower in 1861 than much of the 20th century.

    Given the huge costs and destruction of the US civil war, the capital accumulation earlier on was important.

    All tariffs did was increase the cost of imported capital goods. The US also annexed a lot of land and had a massive wave of migration after the civil war. Productivity growth was highest in non-tradeables – so the tariffs could not have helped out there.

  42. JC

    Up until Trump came along their official interest rate was zero!

    Not true. Rate of return on invested capital in the US were not zero before Trump.

  43. Mark A

    Knuckle Dragger
    #3009622, posted on May 10, 2019 at 11:31 pm

    Bleeding Christ you blokes.

    Can we start talking about poofs again?

    Still in the dating game?
    This might help?

  44. Tel

    Protectionism was a real disaster for the U.S. in the 19th century!

    They ran tariffs of approximately 10% and government spending was two tenths of stuff all.

  45. C.L.

    Here’s what interests me: why should he be charged at all?
    What is the crime?
    I’m not saying he isn’t a criminal but police should have to prove it.
    Otherwise … it’s his money.

    Shocked police find $1MILLION cash in the fuel tank of a rental car after becoming suspicious of driver’s nervous behaviour during a random traffic stop.

  46. Mitch M.

    Read Paul Ormerod’s book “The Death of Economics”, it discusses the idea of positive feedback and how that destroys all of classical economics.

    Thanks Tel. It’s been a long time since I read Ormerod and I was generalising too much when whining about economists. There are those like Ormerod and I particularly liked his ideas about seeing the complexity involved rather than the simplistic drivel so often spouted by politicians and certain brands of economists.

    It can take decades to technologies to mature but if a country isn’t willing to tolerate losses during that time it will never know. Honda produced some of the most innovative motorcycles ever seen(CX 500, Goldwing, that 6 six cylinder monster with the jackshafts). Samsung was long protected by the government and is now a world leader planning to release its own OS and is building a 5nm memory production facility. TSMC(Taiwan) is having great efficiency in the Ryzen 2 7nm production(70%!) while Intel is not expected to reach 10nm unti Q4 2020(I know the metrics are slightly different for each). By the time Intel gets to 10 TSMC may well be cracking 6 if not 5 nm.

    As Rob K. noted so much technological progress is incremental but a country doesn’t see those increments if it doesn’t have the relevant industries.

  47. Tel

    Classical economics was destroyed by Jevons, Carl Menger, Mill, Wicksell, Cournot…

    OK … Ormerod destroyed the presumption that negative feedback was a given and therefore no reliable convergence to equilibrium exists. That even puts into question whether the concept of equilibrium even makes sense. He has since then backed off somewhat … but it’s always worth questioning what you think you know.

  48. Leigh Lowe

    That’s actually not true. There was the Button plan that was supposed to save the car industry for the long term. It didn’t and each job in that industry cost the taxpayer 50K a year.

    Well intentioned, but another black hole.
    In the late 1990’s I worked in the automotive industry (parts manufacturing not final assembly) and it was Featherbedding Central.
    But sadly, like the ABC, they would cry “no fat to cut”.
    All gone now … fat, meat, bone, guts… the lot.

  49. Fisky

    From Bolt –

    Former Australian foreign affairs minister Alexander Downer helped to start the FBI investigation into whether Donald Trump colluded with Russia to steal the election.

    He passed on a tip from Trump advisor George Papadopoulos, whom he met in a London wine bar three years ago.

    Papadopoulos now claims Downer taped him and was probably an FBI spy.

    In my interview, Downer denies that – and rejects the Trump “collusion” smear.

    Too late, Dolly Downer, you are going to Gitmo very soon!

  50. Mark A

    C.L.
    #3009640, posted on May 10, 2019 at 11:46 pm
    I’m not saying he isn’t a criminal but police should have to prove it.

    I agree, but it’s a strange place to keep your money wouldn’t you say?

  51. Knuckle Dragger

    Mark A,

    Not helping. No self respecting girl would date a bloke who wears sneakers and no socks.

    It’s pretty much an invitation to every other bloke in eyesight to punch him in the face.

  52. C.L.

    I agree, but it’s a strange place to keep your money wouldn’t you say?

    Is it a crime to store your money in a petrol tank?

  53. Mark A

    C.L.
    #3009649, posted on May 10, 2019 at 11:55 pm

    I agree, but it’s a strange place to keep your money wouldn’t you say?

    Is it a crime to store your money in a petrol tank?

    I didn’t say that, but ask the hot dog vendor if it’s not suspicious?

  54. There is a tendency to equilibrium.

    Ormerod destroyed the presumption that negative feedback was a given

    It will always be embedded in the best possible production frontier. All we can do is keep on shifting that frontier further out. Once we get self assembling robots, then the limit may be AI capability and marginal rates of transformation. To an extent human labour goes but you still have concepts and phenomena like physical overcrowding and total physical product per “plant” size and “worker” capacity. What after that? Cheap energy and space travel? Okay, but you’ve got to make a few technological leaps first.

  55. Tel

    Not true. Rate of return on invested capital in the US were not zero before Trump.

    The Fed Rate was dang close to zero.

    If there was good return on capital elsewhere in the economy, why then someone could simply borrow at the Fed Rate and then invest elsewhere and loop that round and round to achieve almost infinite profit.

    The only way we could have zero interest rates in banking right alongside good positive rates of investment return in the real economy would be if the system was rigged or something. But we all know that could never happen … *looks at camera*.

  56. Leigh Lowe

    Weirdest coincidence tonight.

  57. Knuckle Dragger

    The driver of that car won’t be the owner of the money.

    I sincerely hope he skimmed enough off the top to fake his own death, leave the country and live forever in Paraguay, because whoever does own it will have a fair bit more where that came from, and he’s bound to be mighty cranky that his mule was attracting attention by driving a car unfamiliar to the locals around country town streets in the middle of the night, and then turned into a stuttering mess when spoken to.

    A simple ‘I’m lost, could you point out the way to…’ would have done the job.

    Morons. They wonder why they’re nicked.

  58. RobK

    What I find weird about the car industry we had is the plethora of manufacturers for our tiny population. How was that ever going to work. One or two producers with a strong export niche maybe would have been viable.

  59. If there was good return on capital elsewhere in the economy, why then someone could simply borrow at the Fed Rate and then invest elsewhere and loop that round and round to achieve almost infinite profit.

    NABHA notes were paying over 1.25% above the BBSW and CommBank had a secured line of credit about 1.25% below the BBSW.

    I know a guy worth around 10 mn. who set this up. He remortgaged about half of his main residence and earnt at least 10k a year since 2009.

    Sometimes arbitrage exists.

  60. JC

    Tel

    The approx rate of return on capital for the S&P was about 5% on average over the Kenyan years. That’s not stocks rising. It’s what firms made. Stop please.

  61. bespoke

    I agree, but it’s a strange place to keep your money wouldn’t you say?

    I bet KD has used an even stranger place.

  62. Nob

    The committed khmer greens would think they would win

    Well, they probably would.

    They just about outnumber farmers now and anyway, half the farmers think GreenPeasement will save them.

  63. Knuckle Dragger

    bespoke,

    Not as strange as some of the ladees in the NT. It’s called a ‘bush purse’ for a reason.

    Every single barmaid that wasn’t born here is told on her first day – when you’re counting cash at the end of the day, don’t lick your thumb while doing it.

  64. C.L.

    I didn’t say that, but ask the hot dog vendor if it’s not suspicious?

    Why would I do that?
    You don’t seem to understand the point.
    Police should have to prove it’s ill-gotten.

  65. RobK

    Not helping. No self respecting girl would date a bloke who wears sneakers and no socks.
    Let alone having long blonde hair growing from his back.

  66. Mark A

    bespoke
    #3009665, posted on May 11, 2019 at 12:08 am

    I agree, but it’s a strange place to keep your money wouldn’t you say?

    I bet KD has used an even stranger place.

    I’m trying to interpret, you mean to say “KD is used to finding people hiding money in even stranger places”?
    Am I correct?

  67. Knuckle Dragger

    Wrong type of car to have a second fuel tank, too.

    If the muppet had installed one in a Cruiser ute, a lacked-up dirty Hilux or a troopie no-one would have given it a second thought.

  68. Mark A

    C.L.
    #3009670, posted on May 11, 2019 at 12:12 am

    I didn’t say that, but ask the hot dog vendor if it’s not suspicious?

    Why would I do that?
    You don’t seem to understand the point.
    Police should have to prove it’s ill-gotten.

    OK CL. have a good night and check your fuel tank.

  69. bespoke

    Mark A

    I don’t no it was a long time ago.

  70. Mark A

    bespoke
    #3009675, posted on May 11, 2019 at 12:18 am

    bespoke my friend, you make less sense than I do, and let me tell you, it takes an effort.

  71. bespoke

    I hope the trade talks have’t stopped.

  72. Overburdened

    https://youtu.be/udjV1Udvrl4

    Imagine some white people culturally appropriating like this.

  73. None

    There doesn’t need to be an evolutionary purpose to homosexuality.
    People are born with all sorts of illnesses and conditions.
    What’s the evolutionary purpose of asthma or club feet?

    True, it is just a disorder.

    I asked the question of those who say you are born gay. That it is natural. If it is, it must have a purpose. If it is a disorder it is not natural.

  74. max

    Mark A, in Sydney it’s James McDonald and McEvoy for me. Michael Walker sometimes.

    In Adelaide, Raquel Clark.

  75. Mark A

    None
    #3009680, posted on May 11, 2019 at 12:27 am
    True, it is just a disorder.

    I asked the question of those who say you are born gay. That it is natural. If it is, it must have a purpose. If it is a disorder it is not natural.

    I like your reasoning.

  76. Knuckle Dragger

    Proceeds of crime seizures are generally referred to a ‘reverse onus’ offences. In this case the dude with the tank full of cash, in all the circumstances of it being found was deemed by the cops to be suspected of being the proceeds of (an undetermined at the time) crime. The cash was therefore seized.

    The driver of the car would only have to demonstrate, not necessarily in court but even to the cops the next day that the cash was legitimately in his possession, whatever the circumstances of its seizure. The bloke doesn’t have to prove that it’s legit to the normal criminal standard, ie beyond a reasonable doubt. He has to offer a plausible explanation that will pass something more than casual scrutiny, and assessed on the balance of probabilities rather than the higher standard.

    If I was a thinking ahead type of cash mule, and if I was planning a midnight drive in a country town where I wasn’t known and driving a car unfamiliar to the locals, I would have done some research beforehand, got myself every daily form guide for the past four months (yes you need to plan ahead), and at the end of each day Google each winner in each race within a fuel tank or two of where I going to be driving. Then I’d circle each of the winners, add a few losers in and various unintelligible scratchings, crumple the guides a bit and keep them in an archive box somewhere in the car.

    Then when they find $500K in the tank you say,

    ‘Yes that’s mine. I’m a professional gambler doing the country circuit. Have been for months. Here’s my guides which I keep in case you blokes reckon it’s suss.

    ‘No I don’t go into the bars at the tracks, I don’t drink. (CCTV footage). No I didn’t keep the tickets. Why would I?

    ‘I’m due to drive back to Sydney tomorrow. I keep the cash in the extra tank I put in because I didn’t want it pinched, and even if some lowlife pinches my car if it’s recovered I’ll still have the money even though the car’s written off.

    “Why didn’t I periodically put my winnings in the banks as I was doing the rounds? Well, Constable, I reckon that’s my business.’

    If he’d stuck to his story and didn’t turn into a trembling mess (which he did) he’d be golden. He’ll surely go into Intel databases and he wouldn’t want to be pulled over anywhere that town again though.

    Same goes for court. Once you raise a plausible excuse, THEN the cops have to prove the cash was obtained unlawfully and not necessarily obtained unlawfully by the driver.

    Strange thing though – the bigger the cash seizure, the less likely it seems to be that its ‘owner’ makes a fuss about it. It’s as though they don’t want forensic accountants going through their stuff.

    Mercifully, there are very few reverse onus laws as in general I don’t like them either. The one used for this one, though, was bang on.

  77. Overburdened

    Ffs

    If something is normal then it is in the majority in population.

    Game over homos junkies criminals etc.

    The problem is they are all on the dole.

    Except for the more disciplined homos, who have influence.

  78. Knuckle Dragger

    Ahem.

    I know this because the pigs are forever into me and my hot dog interests. I run cash only businesses.

    On a far brighter note, poofs are back on the discussion table.

  79. Mark A

    max
    #3009682, posted on May 11, 2019 at 12:30 am

    Mark A, in Sydney it’s James McDonald and McEvoy for me. Michael Walker sometimes.

    In Adelaide, Raquel Clark.

    Hi max, I have 78 in the list at the moment who are in profit in the range of $5 to $25.
    But they are winning way beyond that as well.

    I am still working on sorting them out for being profitable in a price range and reduce the numbers.
    As it is, I already restricted the list to number of rides and S/R + Profit.
    T Clark is a good one to follow too but not in the list, hopefully my further study tells me more.

    Yes IT I do know how to code even in machine language, not my job BTW just a thing one picks up when needed.

  80. Steve trickler

    I reckon a Tommy and Nigel debate would be a hoot!



  81. Mark A

    max
    #3009682, posted on May 11, 2019 at 12:30 am

    Mark A, in Sydney it’s James McDonald

    I like him.
    Good jock but not in profit long term, wins mostly on short ones.

  82. Helen Davidson (nmrn)

    I know this because the pigs are forever into me and my hot dog interests. I run cash only businesses.

    KD, I think I might know you. Are you familiar with any lumberjacks?

  83. Knuckle Dragger

    HD,

    One in WA, but he’s a part timer.

  84. Steve trickler

    Be thankful to the bloke behind the camera.



  85. Mark A

    max
    #3009682, posted on May 11, 2019 at 12:30 am

    BTW the list is updated weekly, only a slight change.
    Good jocks get good horses, get profit. And good jocks get the best out of the horse when they want to, you just have to watch.
    Simples.

  86. Mitch M.

    I asked the question of those who say you are born gay. That it is natural. If it is, it must have a purpose. If it is a disorder it is not natural.

    Genetic damage is natural and inevitable, most of us carry potentially damaging mutations at birth. Miscarriages are surprisingly common(at least 70%) and natural. I don’t think the question “Is it Natural?” is even worth thinking about because too often it becomes circular in that we define Natural in accord with our beliefs about what Nature is. That’s what the Nazis did. Exceptional intelligence is very rare, say .001 of the population, shall we deem that unnatural because it is also associated with poor social skills, anxiety, depression, and psychosis? We can’t deem something to be natural or unnatural on the basis of its utility. That’s a value laden judgement and there are no values in nature. Nature is not guided by our moral sense.

    Normal is a stupid concept and if you keep going down that road I suggest you read some history because when people start defining groups of people as normal and abnormal bad things happen.

    We know some people are born gay. There are many stories of mums who knew their male child was gay long before puberty.

  87. None

    Normal is a stupid concept and if you keep going down that road I suggest you read some history because when people start defining groups of people as normal and abnormal bad things happen.

    I do read history and there are limits to what any civil society tolerates as normal. Men buttfucking boys is not normal.

    We know some people are born gay. There are many stories of mums who knew their male child was gay long before puberty.

    And you tell us you’re a scientist. *snort*

  88. Steve trickler

    Talk about escalation!

    He just did it. ( :



  89. None

    Erin Molan was able to get the guy tracked and (rightly) charged with existing laws. This interchange convinced me never to back Jim Molan https://mobile.twitter.com/SkyNewsAust/status/1124969231794130944

  90. Entropy

    JC
    #3009661, posted on May 11, 2019 at 12:04 am
    Tel

    The approx rate of return on capital for the S&P was about 5% on average over the Kenyan years. That’s not stocks rising. It’s what firms made. Stop please

    How much of that was asset appreciation as a result of QE though? Paper returns.

  91. Tel

    The approx rate of return on capital for the S&P was about 5% on average over the Kenyan years. That’s not stocks rising. It’s what firms made. Stop please.

    After 2010 the corporate bond price never got back up to 5% … barely even touched 4%. Still hasn’t recovered.

    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HQMCB10YR

    Those are 10-year bonds so buying them implies some commitment and belief that inflation will be reasonable. They also must be considered at least a little bit risky, because corporations can go bankrupt.

    Sure you can dig around and find some really high risk stuff that is paying higher than that, but you could also make a lot of money on lottery tickets. Good for you if you win, but that’s not a market indicator.

  92. Tel

    How much of that was asset appreciation as a result of QE though? Paper returns.

    The corporate bonds are the best indicator, because they are a direct and pure return on investment. Generally they are also low risk if you buy from the appropriate shelf, although nothing is zero risk. Everything is at risk from inflation and suppose you buy a 10-year bond but then 6 month later the same bond is selling at a higher return … that has immediately devalued the bond in your hands.

  93. will

    Knuckle Dragger
    #3009685, posted on May 11, 2019 at 12:39 am
    Proceeds of crime seizures are generally referred to a ‘reverse onus’ offences. In this case the dude with the tank full of cash, in all the circumstances of it being found was deemed by the cops to be suspected of being the proceeds of (an undetermined at the time) crime. The cash was therefore seized.

    The driver of the car would only have to demonstrate, not necessarily in court but even to the cops the next day that the cash was legitimately in his possession, ……..If I was a thinking ahead type of cash mule,

    I suspect much more to the story, so your little scheme would not work. He was stopped at random? and they sent to fuel tank to the local metal shop to be cut up? Yeh right. I suspect they had intel, likely been watching him for some time and listening into his phone calls.

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