The ALP’s green left policies will suffocate the economy faster than those of the Coalition

Here is an extract from an article I have in Quadrant On Line

In response to an increasingly green-oriented urban electorate, the ALP’s environmental position has moved very close to that of The Greens.  And, like conservative parties in the pre-Thatcher/Reagan era confronted by the  ostensible and purportedly inevitable advance of socialism, the Liberals have adopted a gradualist version of those policies.  The Liberals are selling their position as being responsible green, their policy boiling down to these talking points:

#Australia is already spending more on carbon abatement than the EU, US and China

#We have to temper extreme policies that would bankrupt the nation

#The technology that will enable us to move to 50 per cent renewables is not yet here, but we’re keen to get there.

Only politicians from the minor parties and a very few members of the Coalition, there is no stomach whatsoever for exercising Trumpian leadership and explaining the limitations of abatement policies and the costs they would inflict.

For the most part, all harmful effects of the green policies are denied. Bill Shorten claims there is hardly any cost attributable to the 50 per cent renewable share and 45 per cent emission reduction that are central to ALP policies. This, along with assertions that the measures will actually lower costs, was the same claim made eight years ago of policies designed to displace the use of fossil fuels. When the outcome of those subsidies emerged as higher prices and lower reliability, as many of us predicted they would, these were blamed on other factors (inadequate network spending, ancient coal plants, price gouging by energy businesses etc.).  The agitprop journal of the renewable lobby, RenewEconomy, noting record electricity prices in the 2019 March quarter, laid the blame squarely with coal and gas generation!

Though the Coalition might survive the present election due to a mixture of rather extreme spending and regulatory policies by the ALP, the decision to target urban seats and passively accept climate hysteria means a continued shift to the green left.  This will leave us far poorer.

Taking a contrary view,  John Quiggin notes that the ABARE 1996 estimates, the model Brian Fisher employed to quantify the effects of current ALP climate policies, put the cost of holding emissions at 1990 levels by 2020 at $10,000 per family. Quiggin thinks the ABARE forecast is an overestimate because it fails to account for an inherent flexibility within the economy and for lower costs entailed in renewable energy.  But, as he explains, the forecast is the cumulative loss. In fact the income outcome is likely underestimated since it resulted from controls over land-clearing, restrictions on irrigators and the subsidies to renewables.  The newly proposed policies take these measures to a higher level of intrusion and, unless there are dramatic technological breakthroughs, the costs will be much greater (and if there are such breakthroughs the measures will be unnecessary).

If we proceed to strangle the economy with regulations that impose costs on mineral- and agricultural-based activities, in which our international comparative advantage lies, we will be considerably worse off.

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15 Responses to The ALP’s green left policies will suffocate the economy faster than those of the Coalition

  1. Ian of Brisbane

    Voted at Australia House in London yesterday. Along with the usual Lab\Lib\Green people handing out how to vote cards, there was a GetUp!, sorry independent handing out how to vote cards for Zoe Steggall. She asked if I was a Wharinga voter, when I said no, no card.

  2. stackja

    MSM have poisoned the AGW debate.
    Takes a brave person to go against the hysteria. Fisher paying the price.

  3. Mark M

    March 2019: The Reserve Bank has warned it will have to take the impact of [global warming] into account when setting interest rates.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-03-12/reserve-bank-warns-of-impact-of-climate-change-on-the-economy/10893792

    May 2019: Reserve Bank leaves interest rates on hold but odds of cut soon remain high

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-05-07/reserve-bank-leaves-cash-rate-on-hold-at-record-low/11087986

    >> What does it mean?

    Is there [global warming] or not?

  4. DaveR

    The ALP’s green left policies will suffocate the economy faster than those of the Coalition.

    And if Labor are forced to adopt any Green policies through a support deal, the economic collapse will be many, many times faster. Why is nobody looking at the Green policies on their own? If ever they were enacted they will lead to immediate economic collapse and massive unemployment, the like of which the nation had not seen since the Great Depression of the 1930s. The tragedy is that those to be hurt most will be the youth who mainly support the Greens.

  5. Herodotus

    One the one hand we have Blair’s Law, that all the idiocies will amalgamate into one giant idiocy, and on the other we have the so-called Independents amalgamating into something resembling one large idiotic single issue party.
    The burning question is what to call it?
    Perhaps the Steggallosaurus Party.
    It even has Rob Oakshott!

  6. sfw

    If your vote for Lib or Labor only means you get to the same place at different speeds, then why bother voting at all? I’m seriously considering voting for Palmer, he’s dodgy and possibly disastrous but all the others seem to converge in the same place. We have to hit rock bottom before we can recover so perhaps it’s better to get done and over with.

  7. John Constantine

    The greens want all legal registered agricultural chemicals to have to reapply for registration, and the greens want activists to be able to object to this re-registration on the grounds that chemicals make them feel anxious.

    “The ad-hoc nature of our current regime for chemical review, as demonstrated by the approach of the APVMA to community concerns about glyphosate, is clearly not up to the task of keeping our community and environment safe,” Senator Rice said.

    Senator Rice said a strict regulatory framework for new genetic modification technology would also be a priority for the party.

    With the government in caretaker mode, the APVMA was unable to make any comment.

    National Farmers Federation chief executive officer, Tony Mahar, said Australia’s agricultural and veterinary chemical regulation regime was amongst, if not the best in the world and would have major environmental and productivity impacts.

    He said a proposal by the Greens for a mandatory scheme for re-approval and re-registration of already registered pesticides and veterinary medicines “shows just how out of the touch the party is”.

    He said a whole-sale re-review of already proven safe and effective products would tie up the APVMA’s already stretched resources and effectively stop the approval of new products for many years to come.

  8. Ben

    The infamous cost of inaction, often spouted by Shorten as a reason for sending us broke, is actually the same for all political parties, when even the most extreme emissions reduction won’t even register in the atmosphere.

  9. Leo G

    The ALP’s green left policies will suffocate the economy faster than those of the Coalition

    Why urge Hare or Tortoise?

  10. Mother Lode

    Didn’t KRudd (in his first outing as PM) tell us that the cost of AGW policies would be something like a few dollars per year for every Australian?

    (It is possible that he meant I must pay a few dollars for every Australian, and so must you and you and you – coming up to each Australian paying $20 million for every Australian.)

  11. billie

    so we’re rooted either way and the difference is just the schedule

    well, good to know

    I guess

    have to admit, the current hysteria on climate change is everywhere you look or listen, but if we do destroy ourselves as seems inevitable in Australia and the climate doesn’t change to the popular will .. what next?

    eventually someone will propose mass cullings of the population. we should ask the activists to go first as is their noble right to show us the way

  12. Linden

    This is the first election that I have experienced where the real issue is ideology not policies. The policy announcements may appear to be giving distinct visionary directions for the country. Shorten and his Labor party together with the Greens want the voters to give them a political mantra to change Australia into some sort of utopia socialist society. They are using ‘fear’ in the young ones to harass and abuse the conservatives projecting them as something evil, and using such statement as ‘you are destroying my future’. Future indeed, if Shorten succeeds he will embrace the Greens as they will him, they are after all closet lovers. The younger ones will I imagine be delighted by all of this, but over time will learn a bitter lesson, they must not, cannot any more question what is going on or be an independent person daring to question this new socialist doctrine. Do they realize that socialist regimes do not tolerate dissenters, their freedom of speech will be the first casualty and so on. Time will only tell and I am being pessimistic I know, listening to the like Richard Di Natale et~ll I cannot help it.

  13. Terry

    John Constantine
    #3007939, posted on May 8, 2019 at 9:03 pm

    “The greens want…”

    We have to stop blaming the mentally ill and focus attention on those (supposedly sane) that indulge their fantasies.

    Labor and Liberal insist upon entertaining the delusions of the lunatic fringe (to the extent that they themselves have not already been infiltrated by them) in vain hope that they will retain power, get rich wielding it and be invited to all of the nice dinner parties.

    Unfortunately, we have compulsory, two-party preferred voting so the dismantling of the uni-party cartel is unlikely to occur anytime soon.

    The inevitable recession/depression (worse?) they have us on course for will arrive well in advance of the electorate turfing them out in time to prevent it (probably already too late).

    First order of business in the new parliament after the collapse must be to rescind all of their fully-indexed, parliamentary pensions, followed by some serious treason trials.

  14. Squirrel

    In the next few years, when the summer blackouts kick in, and all the posturing twits who are “passionate about climate change” and “angry about the lack of real action” find themselves trapped in elevators, sweltering without aircon or even a fan, fridge and freezer contents melting and thawing, and unable to charge their lovely leccy cars, the Labor/Green crusade on climate change will suddenly be much less appealing.

  15. John A

    Mark M #3007860, posted on May 8, 2019, at 7:41 pm

    May 2019: Reserve Bank leaves interest rates on hold but odds of cut soon remain high

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-05-07/reserve-bank-leaves-cash-rate-on-hold-at-record-low/11087986

    >> What does it mean?

    Is there [global warming] or not?

    Irrelevant, because the RBA stance on interest rates ie. downwards is a betrayal of both of their prime tasks – defence of the dollar and restraint of inflation.
    See here: https://aip.com.au/pricing/international-prices/international-market-watch for a chart of international oil/petrol prices in Singapore with our exchange rate. I use this to follow the trend for local petrol prices.

    It is clear that in this climate of impossibly depressed interest rates the dollar exchange rate approximately tracks the movement in international crude oil/petrol prices.

    If the RBA was somehow sensible they would be talking at least a 25-50 basis points increase in rates so that the dollar could move upwards against other stupidly low-interest rate countries (like the USA) which would have a positive effect on fuel costs in Australia, with consequent benefit to the headline rate of inflation.

    Other side-benefits would be an improvement in savings incentives and better investment benchmarks. At the moment, almost any hare-brained investment idea can beat the 1-2% interest rates available, so low-risk ventures are easily funded. If rates went up, some of that “low-hanging fruit” would be seen to be rotten and thus some better investment decisions might be made.

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