Don’t get too excited

No.  There won’t be a Shorten Government, for 3 years at least.  But don’t get too excited about a Morrison Government either.

Whilst a Morrison Government will be better than what might have been, chances are that a Morrison Government won’t be the government that Australia needs and deserves.  It’s true that no-one deserves a Shorten Government, but a disaster whilst not great is still better than catastrophe.

TAFKAS hopes for the best, but is still prepared for the worst.

Remember that it was Scott Morrison, who as Treasurer, brought in the “cry me a river” bank tax.  It was Scott Morrison, who as Treasurer handed the ultimate political hospital pass to Kelly O’Dwyer in the form of implementing and selling the last batch of superannuation taxes.  And it was Scott Morrison, who while campaigning as Prime Minister, announced a fairly large intervention in the residential property market by way of a quasi-nationalisation of the mortgage insurance industry.

And on mortgage insurance, whilst the proposal is for first home buyers only, if implemented, it will have to spread to the remainder of the mortgage insurance market.  You can’t take away a sizable chunk off the business of the private mortgage insurance market and not expect an impact on the remainder.

But there has been an election and there is a clean slate.  So let’s look forward and give the benefit of the doubt.  However sometimes the light at the end of the tunnel is a train.

On current numbers, the Morrison Government will have either a minority in the lower house or a small majority.  Let’s assume they will be able to get legislation through there.  What happens in the senate?

On current projections, should Labor and the Greens band together to block legislation (respecting the mandate as they wanted), legislation such as tax cuts, such as reform to the ABC, such as …. , then the government will need to put together a senate coalition from amongst Senator Bernardi, Centre Alliance, One Nation and (on current projections) the Tasmania cat lady.  Those will be interesting negotiations.

Senator Cormann:  Senator, what will it take for you to vote for the tax cuts from the last budget?

Senator Cat Lady: Don’t mess with me Senator Cormann.  I can get very angry.  If you want to know what it will take, start with the following.  A 15 foot statue of me in Hobart.  A helicopter dropping fresh minted $100 notes over the whole of Tasmania every week.  The relocation of Parliament house to Tasmania as I don’t like to travel.

Senator Cat Lady: Once those are done, come back and see me and we’ll see then.

Consider what else is coming down the tunnel ….

  • The Aged Care Royal Commission which will almost certainly recommend more money and more regulation.
  • The Disability Royal Commission which will almost certainly recommend more money and more regulation.

Chances are the government will punt these to a review to come up with a model of how to spend more money.  They might even commission David Gonski again.

Reform.  We’ve had too few.  But then again, too few to mention.
They did, what they had to do.  They saw it through with much exemption.

Will there be:

  • action on climate change, as in unwinding the last 10 years of insanity?
  • action on tax reform, as in actual reform and not increased rates?
  • action on freedom of speech and freedom of expression, including reform of the ABC and AHRC?
  • action on regulation, as in not just measuring the number of laws and regs, but whether the ones that are left actually achieve the public good?

TAFKAS hopes so, but ain’t planning for.

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27 Responses to Don’t get too excited

  1. stackja

    So BS would have been better?

  2. action on climate change, as in unwinding the last 10 years of insanity?

    I pray so.

    And yes, Tits with a wafer thin margin might have been better.

  3. Dorothy

    I voted for the LNP with little enthusiasm
    We can all be certain that they will do nothing about cutting back on this climate alarmism

  4. Dr Fred Lenin

    They should spend the first year repealing opressive un democraticu.n.communist inspired laws and abolishing all quangos and advisory boards nationalise Hazelwood and Liddell then pay another company to operate and improve them Bn the use of batteries in large numbers together on safety grounds ,begun cuttingsubsidies and impositions on coal ,buy new coal fired technology fro Japan then start buiding new satons in Qld ,NSW,Vic , and one on the site of the blown up one but fie times bigger . Begnplanning nuclear stations .o(

  5. Helen

    action on climate change, as in unwinding the last 10 years of insanity?

    No they will add to it. Josh said as much talking to bawwie on Sunday. More solar, meet the (multiple) targets some loons set in Paris, build a bloody great battery out East somewhere and push water up hill.

  6. vicki

    Who said government in current times is easy???

    The surge in “progressive” cry babies re the fictional global warming is so significant in the “educated” inner city populations, that any government that tries to unwind this trend is in a rocky place. It is not like in the Nick Minchin/Tony Abbott days when you could take the wind out of their sails (no pun intended) by pouring scorn on the “science”. Sadly, too few people in the community backed the sceptics – at least publicly.

    On the other hand, I think Morrison’s pre-election Ministry was quite poor. He needs far stronger and capable performers, & should not succumb to the popular demand for more women, unless they are first rate candidates.

  7. Paul

    I reckon if they do nothing for 3 years but stuff around they’ll get reelected. We just want to be left alone! 😉

  8. Don’t forget that there is much turmoil happening across the globe when it comes quasi-Socialist governments everywhere. Australia can’t ignore what’s going on and even if we are always behind the times, just think what Labor would have done before reality hit.

    Also don’t forget that under Abbott, Morrison also stopped the boats, a very controversial, yet successful, move. Morrison is no longer under Australia’s Biggest Loser and his acolytes, who have been pretty much wiped out, so he has a chance to work independently and make a mark.

    Will he do what’s clearly the right thing? He has a number of years in which to do this and demonstrate, like Trump, that going against the naysayers works. Forget Their ABC, just get on with the important things that will create jobs and put money into people’s pockets. Adani was a start.

  9. Slim Cognito

    It looks like Lambie is trying to take over from Hinch. Best get her liver insured.

  10. Leigh Lowe

    Fuck me dead.
    We’ve just been pardoned, taken off death row and given a Wagyu steak and a glass of Grange, and the first two questions Sparty asks are …
    “Is it 9 score, or 10 score Wagyu?” and “The Grange? What year is it?”

  11. Cynic of Ayr

    I am inclined to agree.
    Yes, Turnbull was a disaster, but it was often said that Morrison was “Turnbull Lite.”
    It was mid August 2018 when Turnbull was dismissed, and Morrison was elected PM. This election was mid May. So, Morrison has had nine months to unwind Turnbull. He did not.
    Bishop would still be Foreign Minister if she had not spat the dummy. Consider that. Bishop, now known to be an absolute vindictive wrecker – as is Turnbull – she would still be there. Morrison would not have sacked her. He doesn’t have the tools.
    In fact, his job was so poorly done, that Labor was to be elected, except for the fact that the Coalition was less toxic than Labor.
    Remember that! The Coalition was merely less toxic than Labor. Not better, just less bad.
    JoNova (bless her though) has trumpeted that the election was on Climate Change. It was not entirely so.
    Labor told what they were going to do, and it was terrible.
    The Coalition said it was doing no more and no less than it had been for 3 years, and it was thus less terrible.
    Labor then doubled down and said that they were going to rob everyone, including the Grannies, but were so stupid they didn’t know that the Grannies had a swarm of kids, grand kids and gret-grand lids who were appalled.
    Morrison did not win the election. Shorten gave it to him. Shorten had only to be less savage on climate, less savage on Union support, and dumped the tax increases, and he’d have been there in a landslide!
    Morrison’s entire campaign was, “Look at me! I’m better then Shorten.”
    He was, but that’s no way to run a Country.
    He did not say he was going to remove solar subsidies.
    He did not say he would withdraw from Paris.
    He did not say he intended to build coal power stations, only that he would investigate them.
    Morrison has said he will govern from the centre. No, he should govern to the right of centre. That is where the future is, as all this other bullshit burns out, and self-destructs.

  12. tombell

    Helen
    #3020081, posted on May 20, 2019 at 3:01 pm
    action on climate change, as in unwinding the last 10 years of insanity?

    No they will add to it. Josh said as much talking to bawwie on Sunday. More solar, meet the (multiple) targets some loons set in Paris, build a bloody great battery out East somewhere and push water up hill.

    Quite so Helen. When I heard him so “We accept the science..” I knew there was no prospect of this mob growing a set and getting us out of Paris, for example. I see no real end to this climate change insanity.

  13. Karabar

    You need to remember that Morrison as treasurer was under the thumb of the Turncoat.
    Surely he will realise he has some free rein with the black hand crew dispatched to oblivion.
    I hope you are wrong, Takfas, but fear you may be right.
    And Debunker, we might get rid of that idiot Sea Patrol only need to deal with the mutton dressed up as lamb.

  14. Scott Osmond

    The Liberals won’t do anything to repeal the insanity. They may even double down on it. However a punch in the face is still preferable to a cut throat which is what Labor were promising. We only bought time. Time for other countries to pull out of Paris and for the scam to unravel. Next election sanity might prevail. Yes, I’m a optimist.

  15. stackja

    ‘AGW’ has poisoned Australian politics and MSM. It will take time to overcome this situation.

  16. Elizabeth (Lizzie) Beare

    I’m the optimist too. Yes, they were certainly very soft pedal on coal-fired power and the RET and hardly free-marketers on most stuff. The hesitancy re climate policy was to win the election and gain time to change the electorate’s thinking. We must sincerely hope that, anyway. If not, then at least the madness may have unraveled further in three years time. We should also do all we can personally to ensure that it does. Unless he shows some mettle winding back climatic madness, Morrison may face a Climate Sanity Party at the next election, just as Farage in Britain has so quickly mounted a popular response to Brexit stupidity in the Tories. We cannot risk a Shorten-type ever rising again on the coat tails of CO2 insanity.

  17. Elizabeth (Lizzie) Beare

    Can somebody get Morrison to read a bit of the Cat?
    This is a sort of focus group, as we are able to say things here openly in interaction without moderation.

    Thank you, Sinclair, for taking the risks with that. (In spite of our complaints about the need to rephrase things to avoid a bad word or two occasionally).

  18. Percy Popinjay

    There won’t be a Shorten Government, for 3 years at least.

    There won’t be a Teats Peanuthead government, ever. Did he not resign on Saturday night, or was I hallucinating?

  19. vlad

    You heard it here first: ScoMo will win the next election.

  20. Petros

    So much for the Liberals having a problem with women. In a lot of the seats I’ve looked at, the male Liberal/National candidate beat a female Labor candidate (who was often younger and attractive).

  21. Nato

    Oh no! Someone, quick, call the reelected PMand tell him being PM is a hard job!

  22. Tim Neilson

    There won’t be a Teats Peanuthead government, ever. Did he not resign on Saturday night, or was I hallucinating?

    He only resigned as leader, not from Parliament.

    Percy, do you think that Shorten isn’t already at the grindstone sharpening the knives in preparation for his pledge of loyalty to his successor?

    It’s unlikely he’ll make it back but it won’t be for want of trying.

  23. Rockdoctor

    Agreed. Warren Entch is already at it with a left of centre agenda. This plastic in the Ocean caused by us beat-up again, I have got some good pics of round Cardwell last year with not a plastic bag or bottle to be seen from a reef & foreshore that is so called drowning in it. Funny enough seems to be my experience in Townsville, Cairns & a large part of the Queensland Coast. Cairns Post has what looks like a nice puff piece behind paywall…

  24. Percy Popinjay

    do you think that Shorten isn’t already at the grindstone sharpening the knives in preparation for his pledge of loyalty to his successor?

    Tim, do you think that Teats has the stomach for another three years in opposition, possibly as a backbencher?

    By the time the next election comes around labore will have been in opposition for almost nine years. I’d be very surprised if he lasts another year.

  25. Yohan

    This plastic in the Ocean caused by us beat-up again, I have got some good pics of round Cardwell last year with not a plastic bag or bottle to be seen from a reef & foreshore that is so called drowning in it.

    I have inner city lefty friends who really thought the plastic in the pacific is caused by Australian families having picnics down at the beach. When I showed them that 3rd world rivers systems contribute 95% of it, and showed them the videos of dump trucks pouring trash straight into the rivers, they got annoyed and shouted it was still our fault because we buy their manufactured products.

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