No. There won’t be a Shorten Government, for 3 years at least. But don’t get too excited about a Morrison Government either.
Whilst a Morrison Government will be better than what might have been, chances are that a Morrison Government won’t be the government that Australia needs and deserves. It’s true that no-one deserves a Shorten Government, but a disaster whilst not great is still better than catastrophe.
TAFKAS hopes for the best, but is still prepared for the worst.
Remember that it was Scott Morrison, who as Treasurer, brought in the “cry me a river” bank tax. It was Scott Morrison, who as Treasurer handed the ultimate political hospital pass to Kelly O’Dwyer in the form of implementing and selling the last batch of superannuation taxes. And it was Scott Morrison, who while campaigning as Prime Minister, announced a fairly large intervention in the residential property market by way of a quasi-nationalisation of the mortgage insurance industry.
And on mortgage insurance, whilst the proposal is for first home buyers only, if implemented, it will have to spread to the remainder of the mortgage insurance market. You can’t take away a sizable chunk off the business of the private mortgage insurance market and not expect an impact on the remainder.
But there has been an election and there is a clean slate. So let’s look forward and give the benefit of the doubt. However sometimes the light at the end of the tunnel is a train.
On current numbers, the Morrison Government will have either a minority in the lower house or a small majority. Let’s assume they will be able to get legislation through there. What happens in the senate?
On current projections, should Labor and the Greens band together to block legislation (respecting the mandate as they wanted), legislation such as tax cuts, such as reform to the ABC, such as …. , then the government will need to put together a senate coalition from amongst Senator Bernardi, Centre Alliance, One Nation and (on current projections) the Tasmania cat lady. Those will be interesting negotiations.
Senator Cormann: Senator, what will it take for you to vote for the tax cuts from the last budget?
Senator Cat Lady: Don’t mess with me Senator Cormann. I can get very angry. If you want to know what it will take, start with the following. A 15 foot statue of me in Hobart. A helicopter dropping fresh minted $100 notes over the whole of Tasmania every week. The relocation of Parliament house to Tasmania as I don’t like to travel.
Senator Cat Lady: Once those are done, come back and see me and we’ll see then.
Consider what else is coming down the tunnel ….
- The Aged Care Royal Commission which will almost certainly recommend more money and more regulation.
- The Disability Royal Commission which will almost certainly recommend more money and more regulation.
Chances are the government will punt these to a review to come up with a model of how to spend more money. They might even commission David Gonski again.
Will there be:
- action on climate change, as in unwinding the last 10 years of insanity?
- action on tax reform, as in actual reform and not increased rates?
- action on freedom of speech and freedom of expression, including reform of the ABC and AHRC?
- action on regulation, as in not just measuring the number of laws and regs, but whether the ones that are left actually achieve the public good?
TAFKAS hopes so, but ain’t planning for.