A few thoughts.
Both the polls and the betting market got it wrong. That’s unusual. The betting market has a pretty good track record of success. Newspoll has tended to be quite accurate.
Most, if not all, commentators got it wrong too. Me too. I expected Labor to win. I dismissed any thoughts of a Coalition victory as being wishful thinking on my part.
Scott Morrison has already entered the pantheon of great Liberal leaders. I don’t rate him very highly but he has performed well when I expected him to fail. I will be revising my expectations.
Government’s lose elections – oppositions don’t win them. Confirmed again.
You can’t win from opposition by promising new taxes. Confirmed again.
The electorate has no appetite for carbon taxes/prices. Here is the Wall Street Journal:
The result is another lesson that the politics of climate change isn’t as simple as Western cultural elites claim. Labor thought that droughts, heat waves and brush fires would cause voters to embrace its climate solutions. Young people say they care about the issue, often as virtue-signaling. Former Liberal Prime Minister Tony Abbott lost his seat after 25 years in a tony Sydney district, where the green message resonated with affluent moderates.
But caring in the abstract isn’t the same as doing something that has tangible costs. Faced with lost jobs, higher taxes and a higher cost of living, voters in democracies time and again have rejected climate-change policies that wouldn’t in the end matter all that much to the climate. Joe Biden, take note.
All politics is local. It’s all very well campaigning in Melbourne on Queensland issues – but you still have to win in Queensland.
Tony Abbott losing his seat has nothing to do with climate policy and what-not. He was past his use-by date and his electorate didn’t want a time-server. Former PMs should leave the Parliament. Him being out of the Parliament is a good thing. He was a disruptive influence. Hopefully the Rudd-Gillard-Abbott-Turnbull feuding will be a think of the past.
Chris Bowen is over-rated. I think I’ve made this point before. Right now the entire Labor economic narrative is shredded. They have to go back to first-principles and rebuild their story.
It’s the economy, stupid. Paul Kelly on this point:
The aim will be the demonstration effect of Morrison’s central theme — the economy is about people. This has the potential to reshape the Liberal appeal drawing upon this victory — for Morrison the Liberals are the party of surplus budgets, compassion for families, service delivery and tax policy that backs aspiration.
Apart from Morrison the Liberal performers in this victory are Josh Frydenberg, Matt Canavan, and Tim Wilson. Josh and Matt are in the cabinet already – Tim can’t be far behind.
Overall the electorate rated economic issues as being more important than the political shenanigans.