It was the sweetest victory of all – or something. Again. 

A few thoughts.

Both the polls and the betting market got it wrong. That’s unusual. The betting market has a pretty good track record of success. Newspoll has tended to be quite accurate.

Most, if not all, commentators got it wrong too. Me too. I expected Labor to win. I dismissed any thoughts of a Coalition victory as being wishful thinking on my part.

Scott Morrison has already entered the pantheon of great Liberal leaders. I don’t rate him very highly but he has performed well when I expected him to fail. I will be revising my expectations.

Government’s lose elections – oppositions don’t win them. Confirmed again.

You can’t win from opposition by promising new taxes. Confirmed again.

The electorate has no appetite for carbon taxes/prices. Here is the Wall Street Journal:

The result is another lesson that the politics of climate change isn’t as simple as Western cultural elites claim. Labor thought that droughts, heat waves and brush fires would cause voters to embrace its climate solutions. Young people say they care about the issue, often as virtue-signaling. Former Liberal Prime Minister Tony Abbott lost his seat after 25 years in a tony Sydney district, where the green message resonated with affluent moderates.

But caring in the abstract isn’t the same as doing something that has tangible costs. Faced with lost jobs, higher taxes and a higher cost of living, voters in democracies time and again have rejected climate-change policies that wouldn’t in the end matter all that much to the climate. Joe Biden, take note.

All politics is local. It’s all very well campaigning in Melbourne on Queensland issues – but you still have to win in Queensland.

Tony Abbott losing his seat has nothing to do with climate policy and what-not. He was past his use-by date and his electorate didn’t want a time-server. Former PMs should leave the Parliament. Him being out of the Parliament is a good thing. He was a disruptive influence. Hopefully the Rudd-Gillard-Abbott-Turnbull feuding will be a think of the past.

Chris Bowen is over-rated. I think I’ve made this point before. Right now the entire Labor economic narrative is shredded.  They have to go back to first-principles and rebuild their story.

It’s the economy, stupid. Paul Kelly on this point:

The aim will be the demonstration effect of Morrison’s central theme — the economy is about people. This has the potential to reshape the Liberal appeal drawing upon this victory — for Morrison the Liberals are the party of surplus budgets, compassion for families, service delivery and tax policy that backs aspiration.

Apart from Morrison the Liberal performers in this victory are Josh Frydenberg, Matt Canavan, and Tim Wilson. Josh and Matt are in the cabinet already – Tim can’t be far behind.

Overall the electorate rated economic issues as being more important than the political shenanigans.

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99 Responses to It was the sweetest victory of all – or something. Again. 

  1. stackja

    ALP wanted to waste my money. I said no!

  2. stackja

    He was a disruptive influence.

    He disrupted ALP on Saturday. ALP lost the election.

  3. notafan

    Tony Abbott will never fade into oblivion.

  4. “notafan
    #3019825, posted on May 20, 2019 at 11:53 am
    Tony Abbott will never fade into oblivion.”

    And I don’t want him to.

  5. stackja

    Both the polls and the betting market got it wrong.

    Polls followed betting or vice versa?

  6. Josh Frydenberg, Matt Canavan, and Tim Wilson. Josh and Matt are in the cabinet already – Tim can’t be far behind.

    This list of names guarantees a bright future for the ALP.

  7. notafan

    Shorten told us we must suffer to save the planet.

    Meanwhile India and China are having lots of coal making lots of heat.

    Australians aren’t all fools.

  8. vr

    Sinc — What did Tim Wilson do? This Q is from my parents who live in Goldstein. They voted for him, again, as they coun’t countenance Labor.

  9. notafan

    Cassie

    me neither

    Tony has a huge personal following

    He could recontest Warringah, move to the senate or run for AC and win.

    Best politician in Australia.

  10. 2dogs

    The screw up in the polls seems to be inappropriate data augmentation. Instead of actually asking actual QLD workers their opinion, they had a algorithmic model take their place, which said ALP for them.

  11. Infidel Tiger

    He was a disruptive influence.

    Yes, he disrupted the uninterrupted lurch towards open borders and complete leftism.

  12. Nathan

    The SFLs need to take a step further right back towards the sensible centre. If they can manage that under Morrison and the ALP double down and go with Plibersek they should walk in come 2020.

  13. Tom

    You hated Saturday night, didn’t you, Doomie? You’ve never forgiven Abbott for getting in the way of the Turnbull disaster.

  14. Indolent

    Tony Abbott losing his seat has nothing to do with climate policy and what-not. He was past his use-by date and his electorate didn’t want a time-server.

    They’re about to find out what a real time-server is.

  15. Mak Siccar

    Government’s lose elections – oppositions don’t win them. Confirmed again.

    Normally this is the case. However, I believe in this instance, the opposition actually lost the election.

  16. Sinclair Davidson

    Sinc — What did Tim Wilson do?

    He used his position of chair of the House Economics Committee to run an inquiry into franking credit refunds. Ran consultations all over the country and had retirees come and tell their stories and generate outrage about the ALP policy.

  17. Sinclair Davidson

    You hated Saturday night, didn’t you, Doomie?

    Hell yes. I was cooped up in a 787 Dreamliner flying back to Australia and had to wait to hear the election result on Sunday morning when we landed.

  18. Mak Siccar

    notafan
    #3019835, posted on May 20, 2019 at 11:57 am

    +1000

  19. Carbon Emitter

    Tom
    #3019847, posted on May 20, 2019 at 12:07 pm

    You hated Saturday night, didn’t you, Doomie? You’ve never forgiven Abbott for getting in the way of the Turnbull disaster.

    ‘Bulls Eye’ Tom

  20. NuThink

    Joe Biden, take note.

    Don’t interrupt him while he is making a mistake or some such thing according to Napoleon.

  21. Polls nowadays don’t reflect true voting intentions. People who do respond to polls will give the accepted response, knowing full well they will do the opposite, unless they are numbnuts.

    Trump was the first to defy polls.

    And a observation from Quadrant: https://quadrant.org.au/opinion/qed/2019/05/eleven-reasons-why-bill-shorten-blew-it/

  22. whyisitso

    Tony Abbott losing his seat has nothing to do with climate policy and what-not. He was past his use-by date and his electorate didn’t want a time-server. Former PMs should leave the Parliament. Him being out of the Parliament is a good thing.

    Davidson has always been well left of centre. Abbott is a true conservative. I cried when it was announced on Saturday night that he had lost his seat.

  23. Lutz

    Abbot worked in opposition for 6 years, tied Gillard and then won a huge majority. I guess that doesn’t count in your view, Sinc.

  24. twostix

    “Franking Credits?” what on earth.

    My community did vote for Abbott, didn’t vote for Turnbull and did vote for Morrison. It’s almost like that was entirely predictable.

    Turnbullians should apologise for wrecking the country for the last four years for absolutely no reason other than being wealthy and close to the halls of power meant they could do so.

  25. Sinclair Davidson

    Abbot (sic) worked in opposition for 6 years, tied Gillard and then won a huge majority.

    Yes. He did. Long time ago now.

  26. “Indolent
    #3019849, posted on May 20, 2019 at 12:10 pm

    They’re about to find out what a real time-server is.”

    Well said Indolent. And that blond vacuous bint has already admitted this morning that she received a lot of help from GetUp….in fact the truth is that she owes the entirety of her win to an utterly scandalous, relentless, vicious, venal, vindictive and nasty campaigned lodged against Abbott….it was personal….with such putrid smears thrown about accusing Abbott of being a friend of pedOOOOOOOfiles. I have never seen such a disgraceful campaign in Australian history….it was all about “getting Abbott”.

    Well done, carpetbaggers of Warringah…enjoy the bint…you reap what you sow.

  27. Stimpson J. Cat

    I think we can all agree that Prime Minister Scott has finally achieved his potential greatness, yes?
    😁

  28. Sinclair Davidson

    Scott has finally achieved his potential greatness, yes?

    Indeed – so far he is greater than I ever thought he would be.

  29. Kneel

    “Here is the Wall Street Journal:”

    Heh – they are all the same, and they don’t learn!

    The NYT said “5G phones won’t hurt you. But Russia wants you to think they can” or similar.
    Because RT ran a story questioning the health aspects of 5G base-stations etc.
    As did NewsWeek. And CBS (or was it NBC?).
    But RT got told “you ran it because Putin” and “… to question the safety of 5G is to be in denial of the science” (sound familiar?)
    What almost no-one reported is that not only is one of the NYT’s board members a former Verizon board member, she actually spent 5 years on both boards at the same time! And that Verizon has given the NYT a “free-bie” 5G mini-cell of their very own, to play with as they like.
    Now imagine it was, oh, I dunno, an OIL company doing it – you would never hear the end of it, “collusion”, “conflict of interest”. But the NYT and Verizon – well, that’s just fine and dandy, even when the NYT prints blatant lies about it’s competition and even more blatant lies about the “certainty” of 5G being “safe”.
    Gee, I can’t imagine why their circulation is falling like a stone…

  30. cuckoo

    ABC (!) ran a clip of a successful Queensland rural candidate who was gleefully chortling “Thank you Bob Brown, thank you for the Adani convoy!” Spot on.

  31. cuckoo

    Still, I’ll feel more comfortable about ScoMo when the Age and the ABC start hating him the way they hate Abbott.

  32. Ellie

    Fellow Wentworth girls – Lizzie and Cassie. We did it!
    Phelps is on her bike, as I write 😁

    Mr Doomlord, every time I see your gravatar it freaks me out!

  33. Pickles

    The coalition now need to cement their victory and sandbag their position all over the nation by methodically and mercilessly carrying out reprisal, retribution and revenge upon those who worked against them and reward for those who supported them.

    Turnbull must be expelled from the Liberal party and any image of him torn from the walls and burnt in public. Any government largesse bestowed upon his family must be stopped.

    Liberals must refuse to appear on the ALPBC for any purpose and each refusal must be accompanied by the reasons why in brutal fashion.

    Any person who has shown any inkling of support for Bolshevism and survives on any form of milk from the public teat must have that milk dried off. Fifth columnists in the public service must be identified and removed. Journalists who were accepting spin doctor jobs for the expected Labor government must be identified, exposed and ignored.

    Fifth columnists who survive on government consultancies must be removed and replaced by loyalists, likewise those on any board etc funded by government must be vetted and only loyalists appointed.

    This may seem radical, but is how the enemy operate. The enemy must be identified and starved out, otherwise they continue to undermine for another thousand days.

  34. Leigh Lowe

    Scott Morrison has already entered the pantheon of great Liberal leaders. I don’t rate him very highly but he has performed well when I expected him to fail. I will be revising my expectations.

    Gee.
    First “Potential Grateness”, now this.
    Batting 2 for zero.

  35. Rohan

    I’d prefer to see Hastie promoted to the cabinet over Wilson any day of the week.

    He is:

    1/ a true conservative
    2/ not a climate change bed wetter like Wilson
    3/ handles the hostile press better than Wilson
    4/ hasn’t been turned into a lefty by the lefty bureaucratic process of the HRC
    4/ they may even pick up votes from the “delcons” like me again.

  36. Mark A

    I don’t like Tony Abbott for a variety of reasons, but he would be the best retail politician in the country if he could leave his feeeelz behind.
    I think second time around he’d make a good PM. Not a chance but.

    I’m convinced he will be back in politics unless persuaded otherwise by his wife or a very good offer of future employment.

    He is far too young to sit back.

  37. Eddystone

    Calling Tony Abbott a timeserver is a bit rich.

  38. sfw

    Can’t understand why anyone would think it would be good for Abbott to come back, he was a great opposition leader and a worse than a bad PM, he folded without a fight on his core promises, vastly increased middle class welfare and just failed miserably in every area. The boats was really his only big win, everywhere else was failure.
    Hope Morrison has the balls to force his will on the party early and hard, cut any soft lefties and start cutting the ABC and all the other needless spending. But he probably won’t I doubt he really thinks these things important.

  39. Leo G

    Both the polls and the betting market got it wrong. That’s unusual.

    My household was robopolled on three occasions in the weeks prior to election day.
    The polls to which I responded had clear systematic bias- to the point where I felt I was being both push-polled and possibly misrepresented. For instance, several questions asked me to nominate from a preselected set of issues which was decisive in my assessment of candidates and parties, but the preselected issues had a narrow range, didn’t include the health of the economy and were presented with context likely to trigger emotional reactions.
    I’m not surprised the polling results proved highly inaccurate.

  40. Wil

    I took the ABC vote compass thing and made sure my input would come up as political centre as you could get.
    However, it came up as as far right as possible, well past PHON and the others.
    Proves that their centre is actually well into left field.
    Anyway, it is only meant to capture an ABC audience.

  41. mrwashout

    I posted this elsewhere earlier, but seeks to explain a possible reason why the experts are often so wrong with their predictions.

  42. Rebel with cause

    Credit to Morrison that he didn’t make an election eve promise to protect the ABC. Abbott did have his failings.

  43. Karabar

    The outcome was predictable, and it was predicted, if you were to watch “The Outsiders” on Sky.
    As John Ruddick points out, this is the twelfth election since WWII in which the “polls” prior to election day were 51-49, and in every one of those the government held firm.

  44. Beachcomber

    I’d prefer to see Hastie promoted to the cabinet over Wilson any day of the week.

    Yes Hastie is one of the very few real conservatives among the Liberals and he played an important role in getting rid of Turnbull. If pansy progressive Wilson is put into the cabinet ahead of Hastie it will be very bad sign of things to come.

  45. Sinclair Davidson

    Calling Tony Abbott a timeserver is a bit rich.

    Politics is a harsh game. Having been PM what was he going to do next? From the Parliament? I think people want MPs who are going places – not MPs who have been places.

  46. AndrewWA

    Apart from including comments by Paul Kelly – especially after his content in his “Shorten’s ready” article – this commentary is spot on.

  47. Eddystone

    If Jackboot Johnny hadn’t wiped Waffles nose and given him a sweetie back in 2009, Abbott666 would have this country in much better shape by now.

    BTW, how many consecutive Newspolls did the Coalition lose before Saturday?

  48. Beachcomber

    Even the Weatherman on the ABC is glum and miserable today. The entire organisation has to be de-funded.

  49. Spider

    I think we can all agree that Prime Minister Scott has finally achieved his potential greatness, yes?

    For me he showed his metal during his tenure as minister for immigration. It would have been very very easy to give in (if only a little bit) to the compassionistas.

    But he never did. He stayed on message and never swayed under enormous pressure. And we can be ever thankful for this even if he never achieves anything else.

  50. Stimpson J. Cat

    Calling Tony Abbott a timeserver is a bit rich.

    What do we call David Leyonhjelm then?
    A singer of sh$t Christmas songs in Parliament?
    😁

  51. Eddystone

    Having been PM what was he going to do next?

    Apparently he was instrumental in undermining Turnbull*, to the point where that fatuous idiot was finally dumped as PM.

    That’s a bigger service to the country than stopping the boats.

    *According to the ABC, Nikki Sava and most of the globalist media elites, so it must be true.

  52. The BigBlueCat

    One wonder if Zali Stegall’s plans for climate change include wind farms on North Head? No, didn’t think so. She drives a large SUV (petrol or diesel? Certainly not electric or hybrid) and hasn’t got solar panels.

    I preferred Zali on skis … she will fail in parliament, and I suspect it will be so tough on her she will resign.

    Nice to hear that Dave Sharma has won Wentworth. (Bye bye to Phelps … she’s done, so back to the carpet). Turnbull should be thrown out of the Liberal party.

    Listening to Alan Jones at the moment … one wonders why anyone could possibly think that Labor were going to romp it in … also, those ALP “leaders” lining up for the parliamentary leadership include Plibersek, Albanese, Fitzgibbon, Bowen … all have history under Rudd/Gillard/Rudd and now Shorten. Why would anyone vote for them? Albo is the more “user friendly” but still Labor through-and-through. Fitzgibbon is dull, Plibers and Bowen are vindictive (might make them perfect leaders for the ALP …).

    Jones thinks that ScoMo hasn’t won one election – he’s won the next one too! I find it hard to argue with that.

  53. Behind Enemy Lines

    Pickles
    #3019897, posted on May 20, 2019 at 12:47 pm
    The coalition now need to cement their victory and sandbag their position all over the nation by methodically and mercilessly carrying out reprisal, retribution and revenge upon those who worked against them and reward for those who supported them. . . . This may seem radical, but is how the enemy operate. The enemy must be identified and starved out, otherwise they continue to undermine. . . .

    Amen, Pickles.

    Either they do this with a vengeance, or else betray their voters all over again with yet another pre-emptive surrender to the left.

    We’ll know before the month is out.

  54. Karabar

    Cassie
    Turncoat’s images should chiselled away in the same manner that the Egyptians treated the images of Akhenaten, and Abbott should be celebrated as they did Tutankhamun.

  55. Rafe Champion

    No disgrace to get the call wrong on this election. One could have wishful thoughts but I lost hope for the Coalition when they could not or would not take up the biggest sticks on offer – the cost of the ALP power policy and concern about the borders and culturally incompatible newcomers.

    They could hardly make much of the power issue – “our policy is not as bad as their policy” is not a strong line to sell.

    I don’t know what happened to border security and I didn’t see enough of the campaign to rank the various performers. We have been without TV for some time and I am not getting another one until the Demons get a double chance in the finals.

    Dutton was my pick to lead the party but he might not have been the man to lead them to this amazing result. It is like Trump’s achievement in significance but not in the calibre of the victor for all of Steve’s enthusiasm.

    Like Sinc I have revised my opinion of Morrison and I think his victory speech that I heard on the way home from Lizzie’s place was truly inspirational. I live in hope that he can get beyond decency and a great work ethic and tackle some of the really hard things that need to be done. There is still far too much dead wood in the party.

    Have not done the arithmetic to be sure but the Adani issue probably decided the result and I don’t think Scott or the Liberals had had much to do with it. Without those seats we might still be wondering who will be PM

  56. Eddystone

    Former PMs should leave the Parliament.

    Yeah, that bloody Menzies, timeserving slacker!

  57. I think people want MPs who are going places – not MPs who have been places.

    A brave act to surmise what other people want.

    Bravely, I say, people want MPs who will represent them.

  58. Tim Neilson

    For me he showed his metal during his tenure as minister for immigration. It would have been very very easy to give in (if only a little bit) to the compassionistas.

    But he never did. He stayed on message and never swayed under enormous pressure. And we can be ever thankful for this even if he never achieves anything else.

    ScoMo did a competent middle manager’s job but Abbott displayed real leadership giving him the cover.

  59. JohnL

    Scott Morrison has already entered the pantheon of great Liberal leaders.

    Not yet.
    When Scomo first burst on the scene I considered him somewhat of a clown. Mousing usual cliches and motherhood statements. Then he hitched a ride on Tony Abbot’s coattails. Abbot made him a border protection minister, supported him to the hilt and together with Jim Mollan made him the great border protection minister – the man who stopped the boats.
    Then, in the great Australian tradition, he stabbed Abbot in the back. Then, when Turnbull’s shit and vomit hit the fan he was sitting on the fence until the last moment, then threw his hat in the ring and became the PM. Not much to say there so I move to the election.
    At the election, he presented himself as a Christian. I don’t know much about Pentecostals but they are Christians. They live and behave in accordance with the great Judao-Christian principals, ethics, the philosophy that served us so well in the West for many centuries. If Scot Morrison behaves and conducts himself in accordance with the Judao-Christian principals, and steers and turn the country to these principles, he would be great Australian Prime minister.
    On the other hand, the other bloke presented himself as the atheist, socialist atheist and went down as a socialist atheist.

  60. Arky

    There are thousands of politicians around the country.
    Way too many.
    If we cull some levels of government, then, and only then, we could afford to turnover any “timeservers”.

  61. Roger W

    Turnbull undermined Howard, then he undermined Costello, then he undermined Nelson, then he undermined himself, then he undermined Abbott, then he undermined himself again, then he tried to undermine Morrison.
    Not sure what part of this made him in any way helpful to the Coalition or to the country. Certainly ensured he will always be remembered as a loser, big time.
    Then there is Turnbull jnr…..

  62. Rob MW

    Chris Bowen is over-rated. I think I’ve made this point before. Right now the entire Labor economic narrative is shredded. They have to go back to first-principles and rebuild their story.

    Bowen being overrated is being too kind Sinc. This would be socialist man is, in first place, the most abysmal economy & liberty fucker this country would have ever seen and would have bested Swan by an order of magnitude. The only thing that surprises me is why the media let this sawn off prick off the hook when even a complete economic moron could see what his enlightened tax policies would do to a reasonably well fed editor. Fuck them to. The cliff was that close and the bastards were willing to help give the final push.

  63. Ƶĩppʯ (ȊꞪꞨV)

    Labor has proved it is not a legitimate party, pushing socialism is like pushing shit up a hill. only the true believers revel in the stench.

  64. Dr Faustus

    Then there is Turnbull jnr…..

    Who, in practice, had exactly the influence and cut-through one would expect from the ‘manager’ of one of the World’s smallest vanity hedge funds.

    At least he had the smarts to realise that people were larfing at him, not listening to him…

  65. vicki

    Like Sinc I have revised my opinion of Morrison and I think his victory speech that I heard on the way home from Lizzie’s place was truly inspirational. I live in hope that he can get beyond decency and a great work ethic and tackle some of the really hard things that need to be done.

    I think the Cats have been far too harsh in the past on Morrison.

    Morrison has achieved things never expected of him in his portfolios viz. stopping the boats through Operation Sovereign Borders, and significant cutbacks in welfare cheating during his Social Services ministry. His performance as Treasurer may not have suited some people, but he had a massive task still to tackle in reducing spending & getting a return to surplus.

    Morrison is small “c” conservative, & will never be the libertarian that many here might want. But he is politically astute, & will achieve as much as the electorate will let him.

    He has never hidden his values or his faith & was clear in his position on same sex marriage. I expect him to support the religious communities in their desire to maintain their convictions and the appointment of staff. Expect also stronger support of Folau’s right to quote the biblical verses in the future.

    This man has always been underrated by politician commentators, possibly because he actually speaks the language of Middle Australia.

  66. Mother Lode

    Davidson has always been well left of centre. Abbott is a true conservative.

    The Doomlord is not a lefty. He is not a conservative either.

    At present, given the drift toward authoritarianism of Western governments Libertarians and Conservatives have much common cause, but if what we call the left retreated to the margins, then the Libertarians and Conservatives would be discover points of conflict.

    I’d like to think such debates would be far less vicious than debates with the left – being believers in the importance of the individual.

    Better personal habits too.

  67. Seco

    Besides handing out gay children’s books and waving rainbow flags what else has Tim Wilson done?

  68. max

    Abbott, Tony (1995). The Minimal Monarchy: and why it still makes sense for Australia.
    Abbott, Tony (1997). How to Win the Constitutional War: and give both sides what they want.
    Abbott, Tony (2009). Battlelines.
    Abbott, Tony (2012). A Strong Australia. Liberal Party of Australia.

    Tony Abbott’s time on the backbench resulted in a couple of thoughtful books. What did he think, that Australian politics is about a contest of ideas ? No, Tony you idiot, serve your time and take your pension like every other political deadhead.

  69. Seco

    Abbott’s biggest problem was not bending the knee (or kneeling before) the most potentially great PM in Australian history. The elite loved fellating him, Abbott not so much.

    If Zali Steggall doesn’t get a dozen or so wind turbines built on the northern beaches in the next three years she has failed her electorate. Abbott already gave them homo marriage, he did that for Zali. Will the wealthy Dr’s Wives all put up a “refugee” or two in their guest houses?

  70. “I’m convinced he will be back in politics unless persuaded otherwise by his wife or a very good offer of future employment.”

    I think Margie and the girls would blow like Vesuvius if he were to run again…and rightly so after the putrid, disgusting, vicious and venal campaign directed against him in this election. He was not a perfect PM…but at least he had and has convictions…unlike that Turd of Point Piper….who, I have no doubt, contributed to the smear campaign against Tony.

    The wealthy carpetbaggers of Warringah can now live by their grotesque choice. Steggall is a joke and she will be a joke in federal parliament…Morrison doesn’t need her and she should be treated as the joke that she is.

    Personally, I would like to see Tony as High Commissioner or ambassador to the US.

  71. Dr Faustus

    Both the polls and the betting market got it wrong. That’s unusual. The betting market has a pretty good track record of success. Newspoll has tended to be quite accurate.

    Notwithstanding its technical ‘secret herbs and spices’, Newspoll’s polling is ultimately based on the assumption that it is sampling something close to a uniformly distributed population.

    However, the election results show this is not the case at all: the voting patterns in the regions are entirely different to the metropolitan centres – and the differences in concerns/issues between the States are also highly significant. In the result, Newspoll appears to have reflected a population opinion biased to the population density of the east coast cities, one that does not represent the distribution of opinion amongst electorates.

    Likely this breakdown in uniformity was magnified in this election by the deliberately parochial and divisive ALP policy platform.

    It also seems unlikely to me that the betting market (at least on the national result) contains much information not reflected in the various published polls.

  72. stackja

    Cassie – TA electorate will reap a whirlwind.

  73. Bad Samaritan

    Sinc says “Both the polls and the betting market got it wrong.” No. It’s sad to see that Sinc does not understand (some) markets.

    Betting markets offer calculated chances / probabilities in advance on every possible outcome. The result is neither right nor wrong. The probability of a Head in a coin-toss is 50% = $2. The probability of Tails is also 50% =$2. When Heads comes up, the $2 price on Tails is not wrong. because of that. When the price on each face of a dice (di) is $6, that is correct. When the Number One rolls face up, the odds on the other 5 faces are not wrong</strong, but still correct at $6.

    Prior to the votes being counted, the prices on Saturday were $1.10 vs $11. The ALP was calculated as a 91% chance and the LNP 9%. Neither was a 100% chance nor a 0% chance. That the idiots at Sportsbet paid out on the ALP shows how f'ken stupid they are, since they do not understand their own business (I do, which is why Sportsbet, and many others, threw me out years ago). I can accept that an economics professor would not get what markets are….but in a bookie this is unforgivable!

    I won’t go on. I’ve explained several times how to win on all these “no-form” markets. When dealing with duds and dubs who bet on “no-form” events you only need to track the liabilities on the contestants. If they more-or-less balance one another……steer clear, but if one (or more) contestant is carrying a very over-liability, back the other one or ones….and if the over-liability is on the outsider in a two-way race, triple the bet! It’s that simple.

    BTW: Other no-form events are things like reality TV shows and talent quests, beauty pageants, awards shows. All that stuff. Cheers.

  74. “stackja
    #3020033, posted on May 20, 2019 at 2:32 pm
    Cassie – TA electorate will reap a whirlwind.”

    What whirlwind? The new government doesn’t need the moron.

  75. 132andBush

    Him being out of the Parliament is a good thing. He was a disruptive influence.

    How so?
    I want a some really good examples, otherwise I can only assume you are firmly in the Photios camp.
    You sound just like them.
    Still carrying water for Turnbull.

  76. Helen

    Morrison had enough mongerl in him and enough cunning but I am yet to see his true mettle so far as courage. I wait and see.

    Abbott had the courage and astuteness but not enough mongerl.

  77. Bad Samaritan

    “is carrying a very over-liability, back that one

  78. Helen

    I am so gald Abbott was a disruptive influence – just as he still will be out of Parlaiment, unless shipped off to Wsahington or something.
    I am glad because when the rabble was flinging themselves into canoes with out paddles, he forced them out with his op eds – forced them to paddle when they would have been happy to have their tummies tickled by those who stand to make a moolah out of global warming carpetbagging.

    He did stop the boats and he could have done the other things, too, if not whiteanted by the dispicible, duplicitous ghosts he was surrounded by when he won government.

    The MSM hated him becasue he was dangerous to their ideas/ideals.

  79. Stimpson J. Cat

    Besides handing out gay children’s books and waving rainbow flags what else has Tim Wilson done?

    Got married.

  80. pbw

    Seco,

    Besides handing out gay children’s books and waving rainbow flags what else has Tim Wilson done?

    Betrayed everyone outside Parliament who thought he was a conservative? Betrayed the conservatives in the caucus by backing the left radicals to the hilt?

  81. lotocoti

    Tim who?
    I’m guessing he’s not some hard, pipe hitting Conservative.
    Otherwise the ABC would be frequently telling me he’s the new face of evil.

  82. A Lurker

    With many of the Turnbullian Termites removed from the Liberal party, Scott Morrison, if he is a Conservative at heart, will find the future road much easier to travel – a gift that Abbott was not given.

  83. Iampeter

    Overall the electorate rated economic issues as being more important than the political shenanigans.

    Not quite. The electorate was looking for maximum handouts at minimum cost and they got this from the Coalition.
    In other words, the electorate continues to move further and further left and the Coalition ran a more successful leftist campaign.

    Basically when a political party wins on a promise of something like “building our economy” no right winger should be celebrating.

  84. Scott Morrison has already entered the pantheon of great Liberal leaders.

    If I hear this trite phrase again I will puke. The Evangelical Holiday Salesman in the same league as Menzies? Get fucked.

    ScoMo & the Libs DID NOT WIN THIS ELECTION. Labor lost it, more people voted against Socialism than voted for it.

    Name me one policy that you voted for the LNP for? Oh no, you can’t can you…because as stand alone policies go they are utterly shit, it’s just that Labor’s policies were shittier shit, covered in shit, served in a shit sandwich. Give us an example of his great Liberal leadership? Being less shit than the other side – whoopee fuckin’ do. If you lower the bar anymore they’ll be serving drinks in Hell.

    The Libs are still an utter joke with no direction, no good policy and populated by 80% gormless losers with the IQ of a seahorse. It’s just that Labor were a worse choice.

    And what should really frighten us is that Labor still won 60+ seats on their policies. If nearly half the country are in favour of that Socialist shite that just shows how much work there is to be done and how badly we are fallen.

    But no. Everyone is circle jerking and getting moist over Abbott, the man who got us into this situation in the first place with his spinelessness.

    FFS, wake up you dozy cvnts. This is not a “win” in any way, shape or form. It’s a stay of execution; one we don’t deserve since it already looks like we will waste it.

  85. Behind Enemy Lines

    Mr Rusty
    #3020088, posted on May 20, 2019 at 3:05 pm

    This is not a “win” in any way, shape or form. It’s a stay of execution; one we don’t deserve since it already looks like we will waste it.

    I agree with much of what you’ve written, Rusty. But I’m willing to give the new team the benefit of the doubt (and as as much support as I can manage) now that it’s shed so many obnoxious wet-left entryists. Even knowing that the Photios crew have already taken their payments and given their instructions, this is a potential fresh start.

    We should have a pretty clear idea by the end of the month whether this administration’s going to be another preemptive surrender and betrayal.

  86. Muddy

    Mr Rusty
    #3020088, posted on May 20, 2019 at 3:05 pm

    Please stop distracting people in the middle of their apathygasm, sir.
    Aside from that: absofreakinglutely. If benefits of doubt were oxygen, we’d all be dessicated corpses by now.
    Change takes place as a response to force. Dump a boulder in the middle of a creek, and the water will have to change direction and move around the obstacle if it is to continue its movement. Simply crossing ones eyelashes and praying to the universe, or visualising a holographic boulder being deposited into the creek, will not make it happen. Neither will licking the paint off nostalgia give you the same satisfaction you now recall once enjoying. But then, not everyone has either the capacity or willingness to learn, adjust, act.
    As I’ve written on a number of previous occasions, future generations will regard us as a void; everything about us will be erased.

  87. Muddy

    If benefits of doubt were oxygen, we’d all be dessicated corpses by now.

    Hmmm. That was supposed to be: If benefits of doubt were consumers of oxygen …

  88. Squirrel

    “I don’t rate him very highly but he has performed well when I expected him to fail. I will be revising my expectations.”

    I hope Labor and the Greens go on under-estimating Morrison, for a very long time.

    Anyone who listened to, and reflected on, his impressive command of detail during the campaign and the occasional (and very interesting) slip of an uncharacteristically sophisticated word or phrase into what was otherwise near pitch-perfect campaigning language for middle Australia, would realise that there is somewhat more to this guy than meets the eye.

    Morrison is clearly very shrewd and strategic, and knows how to play the long game better than most. I don’t expect he will be wasting too much political capital on symbolism for its own sake (which may be a disappointment to some of the more spirited Cats), but I doubt whether the campaigning of the ABC for a Labor-Green government will be without serious consequence.

  89. vlad

    I expect from Zali Steggall a parliamentary career as spectacularly successful and memorable as Maxine McKew’s.

    Oh, and, Doomlord, you don’t imagine Tony’s just going to shut up now, do you?

    Like all those other ex-PMs who left Parliament?

    In fact, as it would be the decent thing to do, he probably will.

  90. vlad

    Having been PM what was he going to do next?

    What GetUp and all the rest of them were terrified of was that, once that little matter of Shorten becoming PM was out of the way, Tony would be Leader of the Opposition.

  91. egg_

    Tony Abbott will never fade into oblivion.

    +1

    The last of the old guard.
    His concession speech outshone the others’ victory speeches in giving the Party both a political platform to go forward with and a confidence boost; only Barndoor came close, and I’ll bet he’ll sorely miss his former Leadership partner.

  92. None

    Spot on Mr rusty and no the lives haven’t had enough of their gormless Lefty’s remember the Lefty’s were already sitting on Abbott yesterday when they didn’t know whether they were going to get over the line with a majority and then going on about climate change. The media’s push to get fuckwits like Tim Wilson into cabinet is also a worry because that’s another lefty who really should have been turfed out and didn’t deserve a blue ribbon seat.

  93. None

    People you really need to stop thinking of Scott Morrison as a conservative. He has zero conservative credentials.

  94. None

    Helen

    #3020052, posted on May 20, 2019 at 2:42 pm

    agree Helen. Many years ago I said Tony Abbott was the most dangerous man in Australian politics. The left know this to which is why they have spent so many years and so much effort to bring him down.

  95. None

    Squirrel to understand Morrison you need to spend a bit of time in a Pentecostal church. They do emotionalism, they do sentimentalism, they do Pitch Perfect marketing watch their so-called worship services crank up for height then go to Jesus is my boyfriend schmalz and there you are Placid ready to take in whatever the preacher is going to give you that day and nine times out of ten it’s really bad self help positive thinking messages) . They also have the greatest turnover because after a couple of years people just get thoroughly sick of the candy and start craving real meat. Morrison is an opportunist. Remember he sat there passing Turnbull on the back going mate mate. That to me said don’t trust this guy and I while I am happy not to have Shorten I just laugh when he’s homeowner ponzi scheme get rorted and costs us millions.

  96. None

    Liberals must refuse to appear on the ALPBC for any purpose and each refusal must be accompanied by the reasons why in brutal fashion.

    what absolute anapa Tosh the ABC is paid for by us and it is administered by us through our elected parliament. The motherfuking liberals should just cut the f****** budget to theABC and sell it. They should also change the bloody legislation to make all publicly funded bodies directly accountable to Parliament. One of the biggest poison pills that fuckwit criminal Gillard did was change the rules so that it’s almost impossible to sack anyone from the ABC board, AHRC etc. But as others have noted above do not expect Morrison to expand any capital stopping the march through the institutions. Most Pentecostals are lefties.

  97. gowest

    Rowan Dean and the outsiders got it right — AGAIN

  98. Nato

    Those numbers could very well be the reason Mr Shorten have himself permission to promise Whitlam levels of statist increase without a rigorous programmatic specificity (I still love that phrase).
    I have been convinced by my own two eyes and ears that Mr Morrison has made the quiet Australians a central focus on a considered approach to how he will lead.
    He has promised Tax Cuts, Surpluses, and Not Much. He’s been given a crack, and he knows he had to deliver. He knows he will not hear from his constituency again until the booths open again.
    This is the most promising election since Fraser/Howard let us all down

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