It’s not all sunshine

A quite sobering column from Terry McCrann this morning: Tale of two elections: Sunshine state v others. Here’s the nub of it:

The result in Australia ex-Queensland (and/or also WA: it really doesn’t matter for the substantive analysis) is not just an interesting statistical artefact. It is of huge substantive significance, especially going forward.

Now maybe the maths was a little challenging for commentators. But it isn’t actually that difficult. You subtract the 23 seats the Coalition won in Queensland from the 78 it won nationally and that leaves you with 55. Then you subtract the six seats Labor won in Queensland from the 67 it won nationally and you are left with 61.

That number 61 is greater than 55. But for Queensland, Bill Shorten would be leader of a Labor government — with five other supportive lefties led by the Greens Adam Bandt and Zali “real climate action, never voted Liberal federally” Steggall.

The core substantive reality this speaks to is that the 20 million Australians who live outside Queensland actually did vote to elect a Labor government.

And where does that take us. Terry again:

Australia ex-Queensland actually voted for:

● So-called “real action on climate change” and the 45 per cent 2030 emissions reduction cuts and its identical twin insanity of 50 per cent renewables by the same date. And to accept the absence of costs.

● The raft of Labor tax hikes, along with the vast social-engineering spending.

● And of course, a PM Shorten.

It makes an utter nonsense of the sweeping claims from leading commentators that Australia “didn’t want sweeping change, class warfare or progressive ideology”.

Apparently outside Queensland we voted for Labor, and that is a real worry.

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90 Responses to It’s not all sunshine

  1. stackja

    Queensland being sensible?
    Rest drinking kool-aid?

  2. Crazy Canuck

    Nonsense, outside of Victoria Australia voted Coalition in a landslide.

  3. LGS

    It just goes to show that most Australians – outside of Queensland – are utterly clueless, politically.
    Very sorry to say my home state – Victoria – is probably the worst example.

  4. Percy Popinjay

    Yet voters in NSW held their collective noses recently and re-elected an appallingly incompetent Beryl Gladyschloklian gubberment, because, wait for it, her living abortion of a gubberment was not as monstrous as a new “16 years, suckers” labore gubberment would have been.

    But, yeah, it’s a mystery why Goose Morristeen and his collective of imbeciles staggered over the line.

    They certainly didn’t deserve to.

  5. I must admit I find it hard to get Terry’s point. He says excluding Queensland and the West, the other states voted Labor, hence scary. Well Terry, excluding ALL non-Labor seats, the rest ALL voted Labor. I know someone that 100% voted Labor. The aggregate is what matters.

  6. John64

    McCrann’s numerical analysis is perfectly correct but I refuse to be as pessimistic.

    This was supposed to be the election when the Liars swept to power. Instead outside Qld the rest of Australia held firm against the tide of MSM opinion which predicted and urged for a Labor Government.

    The only 2 seats that they won from the Libs were Corangamite and Dunkley; which were already notionally Labor after redistribution. Plus the Liars picked up the new seat in the ACT which was always going to happen.

    The Libs went from minority to a clear majority Government on the back of gains in Qld and the two northern Tasmanian seats.

    Of just as much interest in the shrinking land area of Australia that actually supports the Liars. By my count there are now only four Labor held seats on the mainland which are not within 15kms of the CBD of a capital city.

  7. mh

    Queensland is like heartland America. Full of free thinking moral folks that roll their sleeves up and get the job done.

    Unfortunately the rest of Australia is Pelosi country.

  8. min

    In Kooyong we did not vote for Labor’s rubbish even there are lots of doctors’ wives here. However it is staggering how the general public have sucked up the propaganda about the awful pollution from CO2 and listen to opinions, straight from ABC or The Age, instead of doing own research..

  9. I’d like to know what the actual numbers are for the other states rather than just the seats won. What were the margins and how did preferences affect the outcomes? Painting everyone outside Queensland as a Labor/Greens voter is a bit disingenuous, if not foolish.

  10. Siltstone

    Good point from McCrann, but did not WA swing a bit to the Coalition?

  11. a happy little debunker

    40% of the seats in Tasmania changed from Labor to the LNP.

    Anyone wanna guess how many changed on Mainland Australia (as a percentage)?

    Anyone, Anyone?

    A bit fat zero percent!

  12. Percy Popinjay

    John64
    7:12pm

    Excellent analysis.

  13. Lilliana

    Hardly surprising given the leftist indoctrination that has infest our our educational system for decades. A whole generation doesn’t appreciate where our wealth came from, and the sacrifices made to preserve our way of life. They have never felt fear, deprivation and want for nothing so are happy to throw it away. Without a recession or a war I can’t realistically see a turn around. The kiddies have had it too good for too long and have no idea of what it is like to live in a socialist state.

  14. Pedro the Ignorant

    John64
    7:12pm

    Excellent analysis.

    +1.
    Prowling through the various electorate results at the AEC Tally Room and then digging further into individual booth results, the city/country divide becomes more and more obvious.

    It seems the closer people live on top of each other the more they want Nanna Labor to look after them.

  15. Mark M

    ‘They’re full of you-know-what’

    Why the electorate of Bass changed hands again in federal election

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-05-25/why-bass-changed-hands-again-in-the-federal-election/11147154

    “The woodworkers at the Rocherlea Men’s and Community Shed keep their tools sharp and their opinions about politicians blunt.

    “They’re a bit like baby’s nappies, they’re full of you-know-what and they need changing on a regular basis,” said Caspar Staak.”

  16. Muddy

    However it is staggering how the general public have sucked up the propaganda

    In the absence of a confident, aggressive counter-argument, people will believe the information they are exposed to, in terms of frequency and intensity.

    Imagine you’re a fan of tennis: In a singles match you are watching, one player sits on a camping chair in the centre of the backline of his/her side of the court, and places his/her legs on a large esky in front of them. They’re dressed in the right attire, and have a tennis racquet in their dominant hand. They stand to serve, but immediately sit down again afterwards.

    Who are you going to take seriously?

  17. Nob

    Look at the population stats.
    I used this site:
    http://www.population.net.au/states/

    Tasmania & Queensland are the most decentralised states.

    Sydney is 62% of NSW.

    Melbourne is 75% of Victoria.

    Adelaide is 81% of SA.

    These are mostly Labor states.

    Perth is 88% of WA, but is also home to most of the mining and oil & gas people.

    By contrast:
    Brisbane is 48% of Queensland.

    Hobart is 46% of Tasmania.

    Probably why the most gains were to be made in those two decentralised states with strong regional towns, and Tasmania’s small population makes it the less important of the two.

    You gotta give credit to ScoMo&Co for recognising this and campaigning hard in those areas.

    I also give credit for not letting greens and bedwetters set the agenda, ignoring lefty talking points and sticking to their own. (and not interrupting your enemy while he is making a mistake)

    As Trump showed, and sensible people were realising at least two years before that, MSM’s power is loosening, polls are out of whack, and social media is an echo chamber that can work both ways .

  18. Nob

    a happy little debunker
    #3025447, posted on May 25, 2019 at 7:24 pm
    40% of the seats in Tasmania changed from Labor to the LNP.

    Small pies make for big percentage changes.

    That’s why (for example) EV loons can report such huge surges of support.

  19. Tombell

    How many people still in the Liberal caucus voted for Turnbull?

  20. Maurice

    Strange for McCrann to isolate Queensland, a similar argument can be made about Victoria but in favour of the Coalition.
    Isolate this state and Liberals have a net improvement of around 6.
    NSW was slightly ahead for Liberals so I am not sure the purpose of his article.
    Further, NSW being the most populist state and a Nationwide primary vote of about 41% over Labors measly 33-34% and I doubt Labor will find rainbows anytime soon.

  21. jupes

    Apparently outside Queensland we voted for Labor, and that is a real worry.

    No no. You forgot this:

    The result in Australia ex-Queensland (and/or also WA: it really doesn’t matter for the substantive analysis)

    We Sandgropers don’t like Federal Labor either. What is wrong with you stupid NSW, Victorian, Tasmanian and South Australian people?

    Get your shit together or we will succeed and then you’ll end up with Prime Minister Di Natali you idiots.

  22. Tim Neilson

    Very sorry to say my home state – Victoria – is probably the worst example.

    That is correct.

    As is noted above, Melbourne is 75% of Victoria, and the inner areas of Melbourne are predominantly populated by parasites and fuckwits. (I know, I live there.) Even apart from their baleful influence the rest of the state would probably still be marginally tilted overall to leeches and loons..

  23. Robbo

    What a pointless exercise. I’m surprised that Terry McCrann doesn’t seem to realise that this was a federal election and that it is the nationwide voting that determines the result. Subtracting some selected voting area, as he has done, is not all that smart because it proves nothing. As someone else has pointed out it is the aggregate that matters.

  24. iggie

    The facts don’t really support the argument.
    Changing seats
    Libs gained:-
    Bass, Braddon (Tas)
    Lindsay, Wentworth (NSW)
    Herbert, Longman (Qld)
    Labor gained:-
    Gilmore (NSW)
    Corangamite and Dunkley were notional ALP.
    Independent gained:-
    Waringah
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/federal/2019/results/list?filter=changing&sort=az&state=all

    Macquarie up for grabs – Libs just ahead in Labor-held seat.

  25. mem

    David
    #3025435, posted on May 25, 2019 at 7:08 pm
    I must admit I find it hard to get Terry’s point. He says excluding Queensland and the West, the other states voted Labor, hence scary. Well Terry, excluding ALL non-Labor seats, the rest ALL voted Labor. I know someone that 100% voted Labor. The aggregate is what matters.

    Terry has come in for a late analysis. Sure, play the numbers but one could equally play other numbers that matter e.g. the election result. Go away Terry. You are like the actor outside the stage door after a bad show saying it would have been a brilliant if only…

  26. Ben

    QLD had 2 seats change to liberal
    NSW had 2 change to liberal, lost 1 to labor and 1 to GetUp
    TAS had 2 change to liberal
    2 seats in doubt

    ACT / VIC / NT / WA / SA all no change

    I think Terry’s glass is half full.

  27. 2dogs

    I am a Queenslander, and I agree with those Lefties from other states that are now calling for Quexit.

  28. Fleeced

    Coalition vs Labor

    Qld => 23 : 6
    NSW => 23 : 23
    Vic => 15 : 21
    Tas => 2 : 2
    SA => 4 : 5
    WA => 11 : 5
    ACT => 0 : 3
    NT => 0 : 2

    Basically it’s just Victoria and the territories that were strongly pro-ALP. Even SA and Tassie were pretty even. Let’s be honest: people don’t generally vote for parties – they vote against them. ALP should have had a clear run here. A decent leader running a small target campaign would have got in.

  29. nb

    Muddy at #3025488, posted on May 25, 2019 at 8:03 pm says:
    ‘In the absence of a confident, aggressive counter-argument, people will believe the information they are exposed to’
    Too right. The current fad for climate change, and the acquiescence of the libs, is deeply worrying. Similarly the state of universities, and many branches of the public service. Australia’s involvement in Obama’s Spygate, too, shows disturbing tendencies.
    Why do the libs seem so flabby? The best interests of our country are not upheld by surrender to left fears and obsessions.
    Anyhow, at least climate change can be resolved by new, clean, nuclear – not that you would know we have the means to save ourselves from extinction. A weird silence, instead.

  30. Fleeced

    I am a Queenslander, and I agree with those Lefties from other states that are now calling for Quexit.

    Don’t do that. Give the north independent statehood so we can get more senators.

  31. a happy little debunker

    Small pies …

    Make mine a Tasbake National Pie every single time!

  32. struth

    No Terry.
    20 million people did not vote labor.
    You idiot.

  33. iggie

    The Coalition appears to have won more votes than Labor in every state.
    Only in the Territories did Labor outvote the Coaltition.

    NSW 43% to 34.6%
    Vic 39% to 37.1%
    Qld 44% to 27%
    WA 45.7% to 30.2%
    SA 41% to 35.6%
    Tas 34.8% to 33.8%
    Australia-wide the Coalition had 5,410,445 votes (41.8% – 0.2% down).
    Labor had 4,338,854 (33,5% – 1.2% down)
    But that’s only if you believe the figures from our ABC.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/federal/2019/results/party-totals

  34. John64

    It’s a less precise analysis – a bit subjective – but Liars seats inner capital city suburbs v outer suburbs and regional is stark:

    Qld – total Labor seats 6 – inner capital city 5 – outer capital city and regional 1
    NSW – 23 – 21 – 2
    Vic – 21 – 18 – 3
    Tas – 2 – 1 – 1
    SA – 4 – 0 – 0
    WA – 5 – 5 – 0
    ACT – 3 – 3 – 0
    NT – 2- 1 – 1
    Total: 66 – 59 – 7

    The Liars are the party of the inner city elites – propped up by Greens preferences – and represent or speak to very few other Australians.

  35. John64

    Sorry SA should be 4 – 4 – 0

  36. ACTOldFart

    A lot of the comments show that McCrann has got it completely wrong. It wasn’t just Queensland, seats changed to the coalition in other states too. It seems to me that the real difference is between on the one hand people who work for themselves, get things done, and improve and strengthen Australia as a result; and on the other, those who are insulated from day to day economic and competitive realities, often live off the Governemt teat, and do a lot of moralistic posturing and preening.

    Good Sir Robert referred to the difference between the “lifters” ad the “leaners”. These days I think the key divide, as shown in this election, is between the Workers and the Wankers.

  37. Boambee John

    John64

    The Liars are the party of the inner city elites – propped up by Greens preferences – and represent or speak to very few other Australians.

    Labor started as the party of the rural and industrial working class. It is now the party of the inner city dwelling, tertiary credentialed (not educated), publicly employed, middle class plus the unemployable idler class to provide numbers at election time in exchange for OPM.

  38. John64

    ACTOldFart and Boambee John – well said Gentlemen.

    And Therapeutic Albo is just the man to help the Liars reconnect with the Quiet Australians. LOL

  39. Megan

    It is now the party of the inner city dwelling, tertiary credentialed (not educated), publicly employed, middle class plus the unemployable idler class to provide numbers at election time in exchange for OPM

    Correct me if I’m wrong but growth in public service jobs is what is keeping the unemployment numbers respectable. Boambee John has made a point that has not received much analysis or interest at all. It was stark at a lunch we attended last Sunday. We would have preferred not to have discussed politics at all but 2 of the 8 attendees were bemoaning Labor’s loss. I was told that the country could not afford franking credits and it was a shame that the greedy retirees clearly voted against it. Furious agreement from all five whose careers have been totally in the federal or Victorian public service and who are all in ‘industry’ super funds and on large defined benefit pensions subsidised by us. I pointed out the obvious discrepency, and while it was politely recieved I suspect that more than one guest agreed with Jane Caro on our worthlessness to Australia. It ironic that all six live in blue ribbon Liberal seats where their votes don’t count and we live in a Labor stronghold where ours don’t matter either.

  40. IRFM

    Nationwide, across the board, the Conservatives drifted up and the Greens/Labor drifted down. Now that is a fine result given the parlous position they were in when Morrison became PM. If the Greens/Labor made gains then they made them most in the seats they already held. Perhaps the names of the parties should be changed to Aspirational (Quiet Australian) and to Comfortable (Labor/Greens). It is perhaps the former that had the most to lose.

  41. egg_

    Nationwide, across the board, the Conservatives drifted up and the Greens/Labor drifted down.

    +1

    Labya lost their seat in my NSW electorate.

  42. TBH

    I’m not sure I understand Terry’s point (he’s usually very good). Take away Victoria, for instance, and it’s 63:46 for the Coalition if my maths is correct. You’d also take out a Green and a lefty Independent too. And this notion that 20M people voted for change is ludicrous, as others above have pointed out. Firstly, we don’t have 20M voters in Australia and the TPP was clearly in the Coalitions favour (difference of 400k votes). Those votes aren’t only in QLD.

  43. Bad Samaritan

    Look, it’s not that hard…..

    Victoria…

    The coalition got 78 nationwide…..-15 they won in Vic = 63
    Labor got 67 nationwide…….minus 21 they got in Vic = 46

    So, outside Vic (including NSW)…the coalition won handsomely.

    NSW….

    The coalition got 78…minus 23 = 55
    ALP got 67-23 = 44

    Outside NSW (including Vic) they won handsomely/

    And so on….. has T. McCrann become senile just lately, or has this been a long-term decline?

  44. Bad Samaritan

    Anyhow….one more time….

    Last Saturday morning teh ALP already had a 15+ seat majority to count on. by evening there was no 15= seat majority to count on and they were 10-11 down. this was a ScoMoSlide wipe-out of epic proportions. A 25+ seats catastrophe. why look any further than this?

  45. Gbees

    Sounds like a Hillary popular vote argument. Using Henrys approach, NSW was a tie (bar Zali), WA LNP +6, Tas, Even, ACT -3, SA -1 VIC -6, NT -2. So without Victoria and Qld Australia voted for a draw. Hardly a ringing endorsement of socialism writ large. It’s only Victoria which wants to send us down the socialist path. Victorians will soon wake up after Commie Dan has done his damage.

  46. The core substantive reality this speaks to is that the 20 million Australians who live outside Queensland actually did vote to elect a Labor government.

    True dat…..

  47. Tintarella di Luna

    Megan
    #3025646, posted on May 25, 2019 at 11:37 pm

    That’s my finding do – out to dinner the other night a friend was saying that her friends in Warringah voted against Tony Abbott because he’d been there too long — I said did they say he hadn’t done anything for or in the electorate –she said it wasn’t that but that he’d been there too long — well there you go that will be the fig leaf

  48. It ironic that all six live in blue ribbon Liberal seats where their votes don’t count and we live in a Labor stronghold where ours don’t matter either.

    I’ve known many such people. I lived in the western suburbs, yet voted Liberal, while my work compatriots who voted Labor couldn’t bring themselves to live in the slums and had to reside in the east. And not everyone in the west was a Labor voter by any means.

  49. Louis Hissink

    Apparently Labor’s primary vote also collapsed – < 30% I recall hearing first time evah on Skynews !

  50. Rafe Champion

    Without that [Qld/Adani] factor malevolence and mendacity would have won and Mitt Romney’s prediction that you can’t beat the 49/50% who like handouts would have come true.

  51. duncanm

    Ironic, aint it?

    If Adani hadn’t been blocked by endless green lawfare, Qld may not have swung enough to keep the ALP out.

  52. Tintarella di Luna

    If Adani hadn’t been blocked by endless green lawfare, Qld may not have swung enough to keep the ALP out.

    Thank you Bob Brown and take a bow The Caravan of Incompetence.

  53. Tintarella di Luna

    Apparently Labor’s primary vote also collapsed – < 30% I recall hearing first time evah on Skynews !

    Yes Louis Hissink — 27% in Queensland, Barcaldine being the shrine of the Labor Movement – maybe the tree should go, it’s time, like Tony Abbott it’s been there too long.

    Oh Frabjous Day, Calloo Callay

  54. Tintarella di Luna

    And not everyone in the west was a Labor voter by any means.

    Amazing how the media persistently say Abbott was out of touch with his electorate where over 70% voted for Same Sex Marriage while he’d voted against it: yet say absolutely zilch about Tony Burqua being out of touch with his electorate which voted over 70% against Same Sex Marriage while he was all for it

    If the ABC, SBS and the MSM didn’t have double standards they’d have no standards at all.

  55. Greg

    If it wasn’t for Victoria, the Coalition would have won in a landslide. Should we be demanding Vicxit?

  56. Notafan

    The ’20 million’ really destroys this so called analysis.

    Or maybe Terry really really wants Labor greens to hate on Bob Brown.

  57. Boambee John

    Numbers still livin’ the dream.

    Wake up Dumbo, Scott Morrison is still PM, Bill Shorten is a feather duster,

  58. Indolent

    This was supposed to be the election when the Liars swept to power. Instead outside Qld the rest of Australia held firm against the tide of MSM opinion which predicted and urged for a Labor Government.

    Exactly. If, for instance, there had been the bloodbath in Victoria everyone expected, Queensland would not have mattered.

  59. Leigh Lowe

    OK, this argument is the sort of the thing put about by the Photios Phaction.
    “We just got lucky, so need steady hands with more of the same to have a chance in 2022.”
    More of the same = green madness and descruction of Western institutions.

  60. Roger

    You gotta give credit to ScoMo&Co for recognising this and campaigning hard in those areas.

    And three cheers for Jackie Trad, Annastacia Palaszczuk & Bob Brown!

  61. Percy Popinjay

    people don’t generally vote for parties – they vote against them

    Correct. Anyone willingly voting for a major party (or the greenfilth) is a useless uninformed dolt.

    And once more for the brain damaged – only 4.34 million voted for labore, not 20 million.

  62. None

    The fact is that we very soon I going to past the point where we have more people dependent on government then earning a living and paying taxes. South Australia already has more public Servants then Manufacturing Workers.

  63. None

    McRann probably forgot to remove people under the voting age.

  64. W Hogg

    That’s my finding do – out to dinner the other night a friend was saying that her friends in Warringah voted against Tony Abbott because he’d been there too long

    Presumably Wentworth felt that way about Phelps too

  65. If it wasn’t for Victoria, the Coalition would have won in a landslide.

    The problem with Victoria is that we have had completely incompetent Liberal governments of late, such that I think the view then carries over to Federal government. And Andrews has done a few things that have gone against vocal protestors, so that adds to the problem.

    This is all local stuff, but like Qld with Adani, state government policies and perceptions do impact on Federal government outcomes. To be honest, I can’t even name Victoria’s opposition leader. We haven’t had a Liberal leader since Kennett who was worthy of polishing Kennett’s boots, let alone filling them.

  66. Caveman

    You gotta give credit to ScoMo&Co for recognising this and campaigning hard in those areas.

    Not that they will as they’re so fixated on Labors loss, the left luv self flagellation.

    ScoMo read the numbers correctly , how did he do it? I would keep it myself as a trade secret.

  67. wal1957

    yeah…yeah…
    …and Trump didn’t get the majority of votes! So what!
    It’s called a federal election for a reason.

  68. Macspee

    Labour’s vote dropped and has been falling for a long time. The greens vote goes to labour but if the Greens start to get up they will be propelled in by labour. Our problem is that the right side stays fairly even while the left is split between fairly hard-nosed unionists and wet gullibles.
    The gullible mob will not fall away until they are comprehensively rejected and rebutted by those who are and have been for a long time scared witless and afraid to stand up against their breathless stupidity.

  69. gorgiasl

    It is not a national problem.

    It is a problem with the public servants in ACT and NT – Labor pays them more, gives them job security and huge retirement benefits (now watch them try to sabotage the Morrison Government), and with the socialists in Victoria – hard to believe they can be so stupid but they are.

    Victoriastan – 15 Lib, 22 Lab
    Canberrastan – 0 Lib, 3 Lab
    N Territoriastan – 0 Lib, 2 Lab

  70. Cynic of Ayr

    Well, I think McCrann is just too engrossed in borders. He thinks States and Borders are somehow magical, in that a different species live in the different states. What nonsense!
    He says “Queensland” won the election for Morrison.
    So, he indicates that, once you step over the border, you vote differently.
    So, he says, anyone migrating from, say, Victoria, suddenly votes differently once the wheels of the car pass over the border.
    “Well, that’s a relief, Mildred, we’re allowed to vote Liberal now!”
    What McCrann and other like him miss, is that it wasn’t Queensland, as such, it was mining! It was awareness of Climate Change Bullshit! It was that this particular area of Australia doesn’t have so many stupid, illogical, fantasists like Phelps and Steggall. The area of Australia known as Queensland, has more workers and more doers, not whiners and whingers and terrified snow flakes.
    It only has one big city with silly poncing morons like Trad.
    IF, the coal was in Victoria, Victoria would have voted as Queensland did.
    IF, the coal was in NSW, NSW would have voted as Queensland did, as they did in the Hunter, which McCrann probably doesn’t know is a coal mining area – in NSW!
    I am constantly wary of people like McCrann, who do nothing but look at things and give his – his – opinion He doesn’t actually do anything.
    I suggest McCrann look at a map of Australia marked in Blue and Red. It’s staggering where the Red is, in small tiny pockets of area. Not population, Area.

  71. So what do we take away from this election?
    Morrison needs to understand that he must empty the cities by decentralising and reducing government.
    If he doesn’t cut back the PS numbers, he will be unelectable.
    It’s as simple, and as complex, as that.

  72. GoWest

    I have no problem enforcing Bill Shorten’s taxes on these labor electorates – might make them wake up and it would get the budget into surplus quicker…

  73. If he doesn’t cut back the PS numbers, he will be unelectable.

    There seems to be this myth that all public servants vote Labor/Greens. That simply isn’t true. If an LNC government attacks the public service simply on the basis that they think they all vote labor, then they will all vote Labor.

  74. yarpos

    So what? in nearly every election one state or area has a pivotal role and swings things. How often do the pundits say ” the election will be won or lost in ………”

  75. Fess

    Like so much political analysis – superficially interesting (maybe) but pointless and provides no real insight. Reminiscent of Clinton “winning the popular vote” in 2016. The real story is that a government that had spent 4 years trying to lose, and nearly succeeded in 2016, attracted large swings in its favour in so many places across the country against a Labor/Green Agenda of all their iconic issues so beloved of the political and media classes.

  76. Leigh Lowe

    Anyone looking at differentials in raw regional numbers is missing the point totally.
    This was the ALP’s unloseable election and they can publicly kid themselves that it was all Fat Clive’s money and Death Duties scares as much as they like.
    However, the hard heads in the party will make sure that they scuttle any suggestion of generational tax warfare and greenfilth reneawbale targets for at least 3 terms.

    That is a yuuuuge victory.

  77. Jonesy

    Mcspee, my observation as well….THE scare of the election, Kooyong! Liberals on one corner and THE GREENS on the other for two party preferred…the greenfilth is spreading from the inner city!

    As a demographic, how do you beat affluence that votes with no consequence.

  78. Leigh Lowe

    There seems to be this myth that all public servants vote Labor/Greens. That simply isn’t true.

    Oh yeah?
    2PP for the three ACT based HoR seats:-
    Canberra … 66.8 : 33.2 to the Liars.
    Fenner … 60.4 : 39.6 to the Liars
    And the close one … Bean 57.4 : 42.6 to the Liars.
    .

    The Green vote in the ACT as against a 9.93% National average.
    Canberra … 23.1%
    Fenner … 14.1%
    Bean … 12.75%
    So, yes, a hot-bed of left-filth.

  79. Oh yeah?

    What? The ACT is the only place in Australia that employs public servants?

  80. I should also add that public servants include Defence, police, ambulance, fire fighters etc. So they only exist in the ACT? And they all vote Labor/Greens?

  81. Rockdoctor

    Interesting, the Federal scene seems to contradict the state scene. All but 3 years in around 20 years we have had wall to wall ALP governments & a media that looks the other way at the corruption it has bred. Even here in Townsville the 3 ALP wastes of space were re-elected & the LNP lost to Katter in my seat. Though Deb Frecklington in all honesty is pretty hopeless…

  82. Bemused:

    There seems to be this myth that all public servants vote Labor/Greens. That simply isn’t true.

    I’m not propagating that myth.
    My point is the context of Pedro’s contribution:

    Prowling through the various electorate results at the AEC Tally Room and then digging further into individual booth results, the city/country divide becomes more and more obvious.
    It seems the closer people live on top of each other the more they want Nanna Labor to look after them.

  83. My point is the context of Pedro’s contribution:

    There is a city/country divide, I’m well aware of that having travelled the Victorian countryside for decades and now lived there for more than seven years. But putting all the blame on public servants is projecting a dangerous myth.

    Note also that not everyone in the ACT is employed by the government. There is as diverse a group of city/country people as anywhere else, even if they support what is predominantly a government employer. These people whether employees or employers have as much to lose under a Labor government as anyone else.

  84. Tim Neilson

    Victorians will soon wake up after Commie Dan has done his damage.

    I hope you’re right, but i isn’t a sure thing.

    If conceit, ignorance and stupidity were energy sources inner Melbourne could power the whole planet.

  85. Leigh Lowe

    What? The ACT is the only place in Australia that employs public servants?

    No.
    But there is a heavy concentration there and a strong correlation to the Greenfilth vote.
    23% in the seat of Canberra alone, and well above the national average in the other two seats.

  86. But there is a heavy concentration there and a strong correlation to the Greenfilth vote.

    No shit Sherlock? But you tar every ACT resident with the same brush, as if every ACT resident is ‘Greenfilth’. If it were like you suggest, the vote would be 100% Labor/Green.

  87. Squirrel

    “You subtract the 23 seats the Coalition won in Queensland from the 78 it won nationally and that leaves you with 55. Then you subtract the six seats Labor won in Queensland from the 67 it won nationally and you are left with 61.”

    The picture becomes even clearer if you then subtract the 11 seats won by the Coalition, and the 5 by Labor, in WA – the federal government doesn’t just redistribute money between different income groups, it also shuffles it around between the parts of the country which actually pay our way in the world, and the parts which are massive black holes on the trade account.

    Queensland and Western Australia know very well that they are carrying the rest of Australia, and that without the earnings from the industries which many of the virtue-signalling twits in the south-east would love to close down, material living standards for all Australians would be much lower.

    The other point to make about the Qld/WA vs. The Rest divide is that the people who are closer to the harsh economic realities of competing in real global markets (not bullshit artificial “markets”) are more likely to support the Coalition, while those who are still substantially insulated from those realities (in spite of what they might tell themselves) – while enjoying some of the fun bits of globalism – are more likely to support the Left.

  88. Tony

    You can make statistics say whatever you want most of the time. Removing Qld from Australia is what they focused on this article.
    If you remove the 5 seats from the ACT & NT and the 5 to 4 result in SA it is 51 each.
    NSW was 23 all
    WA – Lib 11 ALP 5
    Vic – Lib/Nat 15 ALP 21
    So only the Vics and the Territory’s were clearly Labor

  89. John Comnenus

    McCrann’s analysis is bunk. According to the AEC this is what the 2PP totals (LNP listed first) and seats were by state and territory (LNP listed first indep / green / others listed 3rd)

    NSW: 51.2% – 48.8% 23 – 23 – 1 with a 0.65% swing to the LNP
    VIC: 48.1% – 51.9% 15 – 21 – 2 With a 0.03% swing away from the LNP
    QLD: 57.7% – 42.3% 23 – 6 – 1 with a 3.63% swing to the LNP
    WA: 55.7% – 44.3% 11 – 5 with a 1.06% swing to the LNP
    SA: 47.4% – 52.6% 4 – 5 – 1 with a 0.33% swing away from the LNP
    TAS: 46.5% – 53.5% 2 – 2 – 1 with a 3.89% swing to the LNP
    ACT: 38.6% – 61.4% 0 – 3 with a 0.25% swing away from the LNP
    NT: 45.6% – 54.4% 0 – 2 with a 2.7% swing to the LNP

    National: 51.6% – 48.4% 78 – 67 – 6 with a 1.25% swing to the LNP

    So the LNP won the biggest State closely, lost the second biggest, decisively won the 3rd and 4th biggest states, lost the fifth biggest state, lost the smallest state and the territories decisively. There was no swing to the ALP (0.03% in Vic likely to be 0 when counting is complete) outside of SA and ACT. When all the votes are counted the LNP is going to have won by around 52-48 in 2PP with approx 1.65% swing to it.

    The real electoral outlier is the ACT which is the hardest Left jurisdiction in Australia. The real scandal is that the ACT, and so much of the public service, is so unrepresentative of the Country it governs. That Public Service writes effectively all our policy and all of our laws is so different to the rest of the country.

  90. Elderly White Man From Skipton

    Politics might finally begin to realise that the experience of Australia’s economic success is highly variable. It is also facing some big changes and we’d better get used to it rather than constantly snipe and divide. One of the more interesting observations in recent weeks was the RBA’s point: taxes on average rising much faster than wages. in other words bracket creep is eroding living standards for quite a lot of people. I the same week Deutsche Bank ranked Sydney and Melbourne among the top 10 global cities for after tax median incomes.
    I wish people would give up this undergraduate left-right horse3hit and focus on what’s happening for the many.

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