Australian Institute for Progress Exit Poll report

Election aficionados can pig out on this mass of information from the Australian Institute for Progress.

Executive Summary

This was an election that Labor lost. It had too many policies that hurt too many people through higher taxes. This was meant to redistribute to poorer Australians and make the country fairer. But those who would lose were angry, and those who might win, unappreciative.

On top of that it actively alienated working Australians in the mining regions of Queensland and New South Wales by its lack of action on Adani specifically, and coal mining generally, and antagonised religious Australians by trying to wedge Scott Morrison on his Christianity and threatening to take rights away from Christian organisations in their staff hiring policies.

Morrison waged a chanceless campaign. He didn’t show a lot of flair, but he didn’t make any mistakes and cured the perception that the Coalition was weak and divided. He reconnected the party with its conservative rural base, and appears to have won the majority of undecided voters as they entered the polling booth.

The win looks larger than it is because the expectation of a Labor win was so high, but the government only has a bare majority, and a large proportion of voters either voted for third parties, or when they voted for the majors, did so unenthusiastically.

Climate change was the largest issue on the Labor/Greens side, but it didn’t translate into changes of voting intention. When it was mentioned by voters on the right it was generally in negative terms. Stability, taxes and the economy were the major issues on the right, with a smattering of cultural issues.

With such a close result we can expect the dysfunction of the last parliament to continue, unless one side or the other can develop a compelling narrative which converts voters to their cause. The best chance for this is for the Morrison government, if it can eat into the nationalist voter base and snare first preferences.

Labor will also be eyeing this group off, but it will be difficult for them as they stand to lose Green votes and preferences on the left if they try too hard to meet the demands of rural and regional voters.

FWIW My take is that the handouts on offer from the ALP failed to work as they expected because practically all the beneficiaries were anti-Conservative voters to start with.

Look out for power prices as the big issue next time.

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30 Responses to Australian Institute for Progress Exit Poll report

  1. a happy little debunker

    Yep, we are still tilting towards a 2022 Labor win – but the ship of state has been steadied (after the Turnbull indulgence) and where we go from here has yet to be played out.

  2. RobK

    Look out for power prices as the big issue next time.
    I agree with the general text and particularly power prices. I think there will be a lot of extra funding slipped in here to protect the putters bottom line, however, it won’t be enough to mask the deteriorating utility of the infrastructure. I am not confident that the most robust and valuable coarse will be chosen.

  3. Empire 5:5

    Labor will also be eyeing this group off, but it will be difficult for them as they stand to lose Green votes and preferences on the left if they try too hard to meet the demands of rural and regional voters.

    Insightful.

    I haven’t the time or inclination to analyse the local data, but the long US trend has seen the left move harder left than the right has moved right. The DNC is terminal – they can’t support the growing mass of the lunatic flank. If the RNC collects the somewhat less deplorable right flank of the DNC, the Overton window will shift materially right and stay there.

    From what I know of the ALP progressive wing and their hollowing out of an already dying industrial wing, the party has attracted more loonies. They’ve also picked up former Gangrenes who figured out fast how totally dysfunctional that cut-out .org is. Albo needs to be Tito or the ALP will eat itself.

  4. RobK

    Putters/punters….whatever.

  5. jupes

    He reconnected the party with its conservative rural base …

    Yeah nah. We could only hope.

  6. Nato

    Lack of flair? He was everywhere doing everyman things wearing a grin crafted to signal that being with the people was where his heart is as he grinds away in Canberra. It was all about flair!
    Maybe they mean pretention or ostentation.
    And how long are pretentious, ostentatious blowhards going to repeat that an outright majority of an insignificant margin before they realise it only illustrates their own aloof, out-of-touch arrogance?
    All the polls have been wrong for six years
    Oh look! A new poll.
    Is it possible that Australian politics had become so fragmented, polarised and navel-gazed that there is no national sentiment for the polls to reflect?
    Our prime Minister is too good to let the mask slip. He will win the next election, too.

  7. Bruce in WA

    or when they voted for the majors, did so unenthusiastically.

    And we know that how?

  8. None

    This just confirms the liberals adopted the Crosby textor strategy of flipping the underside is because conservatives don’t matter. They don’t matter because they have nowhere else to go. This is the same strategy that Cameron used to win the election everyone thought that he would lose in the UK. Do not expect the liberals to reconnect with a conservative base. They can happily ignore their conservative base and the base will still vote for them because they have nowhere else to go. Consider that the leaves are not going to tackle religious Freedom they’ve just appointed another Commissioner to the useless draconian ahrc and we know that that Commissioner will be used to promote the cause of Isl*m so call them the minister for Da’wa. Consider that they couldn’t give a toss about 18c but they’re now thinking about a commission into press freedom because you see the ABC which is required by law 2B non-biased needs to have even that restriction remove so it can spend 2 billion dollars a year organising against the people who pay them. The Liberals are a foul corrupt outfit and no one in their right mind should vote for them and one should continue to work towards establishing a new party in the long term.

  9. Herodotus

    The real mystery is why Labor and Greens still get so many votes.

  10. Robber Baron

    None at 2.50am. Excellent post.

    If we has a first past the post system then politicians would be accountable and power would be returned to the voters. We should agitate to change the system.

    But changing the system would be even more difficult than electing a 3rd party into government.

  11. yarpos

    ” or when they voted for the majors, did so unenthusiastically.

    And we know that how? ”

    Yea its a big statement isnt it? when clearly so many knew so little about so much

  12. Entropy

    This just confirms the liberals adopted the Crosby textor strategy of flipping the underside is because conservatives don’t matter. They don’t matter because they have nowhere else to go. This is the same strategy that Cameron used to win the election everyone thought that he would lose in the UK. Do not expect the liberals to reconnect with a conservative base. They can happily ignore their conservative base and the base will still vote for them because they have nowhere else to go.

    Yes.

    Labor will also be eyeing this group off, but it will be difficult for them as they stand to lose Green votes and preferences on the left …

    Yes, but the greens also have nowhere else to go with compulsory preferences. The solution is obvious, I would think. First, get rid of compulsory preferential voting. Heck get rid of compulsory voting. And then the harder task of both keeping conservatives and attracting the right of the ALP, who will be looking for a new home.
    It can’t be just removing compulsory preferences and compulsory voting, you need to look after you flanks as well.

  13. MACK

    “when clearly so many knew so little about so much”. I spoke to some 20-somethings over the weekend and one didn’t know that solar panels don’t supply electricity after dark!

  14. Rafe Champion

    They did in Spain☺

  15. John Bayley

    First, get rid of compulsory preferential voting. Heck get rid of compulsory voting.

    That just won’t happen, no matter how desirable it would be.
    Compulsory voting ensures no resources have to be expended in ‘safe’ seats.
    It also provides large additional direct funding to the majors, through the ‘dollars for votes’ system we have in place.
    The politicians are universally corrupt and could not care less about ‘the people’ they supposedly represent, but they are definitely not stupid when it comes to cutting off the hand that feeds them.
    Nothing will change until enough socialism has been brought in to result in an economic collapse.
    That might do it; but even then it’s far from certain (see Argentina, for example). One thing’s for sure – the process will be far from painless.

  16. None

    The Greens can go to Animal Justice and Population party and any number of lefty Psychos that are out there polluting our ballot papers each election. Unfortunately, with the changes to senate voting hour political Masters have virtually entrenched the Greens as the third party in the Senate.

  17. Art

    The LNP are right now in the perfect position to announce a complete 180′ on power generation and water security. Pauline Hanson and Clive Palmer have got it rite. Build Hele power stations, 1 in each state. Build ore processing plants, cokeing ovens and blast furnaces near all the mines Australia wide. Sell the pure processed minerals to the world at premium prices,Coked coal pig iron, aluminium copper ingots rare earth…ect. Set up an underground bunker in the middle of nowhere to store the world’s nuclear waste and charge like a wounded bull for eternity. If we do all that we would become the richest country in the world. If the alp/green don’t agree lnp would own the mining states forever.But what’s the chances

  18. Look out for power prices as the big issue next time.

    How about power reliability?

    How about we take Liddell offline and another unit from Loy Yang.
    For 3 months.

    After freezing their arses off or melting in the heat for 3 months, voters may be harsh on the incumbents OR anyone that preaches roonabaubles.

  19. Roger

    Look out for power prices as the big issue next time.

    Power prices are merely a symptom of the disease.

  20. mrwashout

    Is disappointing to see so many Australians with strong statist beliefs, whether on the LNP side or the left. So depressing…

  21. Thomas Ray

    Parliament dysfunction… isn’t that what we want? A parliament that is in dysfunction doesn’t pass as much unnecessary legislation, thus leaving us alone (in some regards).

  22. mem

    I read all the questions and also the narrative responses that were included and came to the conclusion that the exercise was biased in favour of keeping the climate change Ponzi scheme going regardless of which party is now in power. Remember when this was headlined as a vote on climate change? All cleverly hidden now under a pile of other issues. but us quiet Australian will not forget and it will come back to haunt the Libs if they do not pull in the useless spending on climate that makes no difference at all to the temperature.

  23. Lilliana

    I can’t speak for the 13,000 Australians polled, but based on information gleaned from acquaintances, friends, and comments on various blogs – the biggest election issues were: immigration, wealth theft, and social engineering.

    Most people simple will not openly discuss what is happening in this country, but after some gentle encouragement, the truth comes out. I see it, they see it, we all see it. You would have to be blind not to see that our society is being intentionally turned upside down.

  24. Rococo Liberal

    I was surveyed at least 7 times in the lead up to the 2018 Wentworth by election. They constantly tried to put words into my mouth about the issues. They also limited the issues to those they thought were important or asked questions which were irrelevant in relation to my motivation for voting for my preferred candidate.
    For example, they kept on asking me how the sacking of Turnbull would effect my vote but not if would affect my vote at all (which it didn’t). They kept on insisting too that climate change was an issue and that I had to give an opinion on how government policies on climate change would affect the outcome of the by election. There was never any option to say that climate change wasn’t a major issue. I was reminded of this:

  25. Squirrel

    The narrowness of the result in the Reps should have two benefits – as a caution against the complacency which a comfortable win might have engendered, and as a comfort to the Labor diehards who cling (long may they do so) to the policies which the “Quiet Australians” rejected.

    The majority of Australians, quiet and otherwise, will surely be glad to have a break from the political turmoil and melodrama of the last decade, so even if they give Albanese higher personal ratings than Shorten (when the pollsters summon up the courage to get busy again), that should be about it for some time to come.

  26. The dislike for the attacks on Morrison’s Christianity was in some ways unsurprising. Australians don’t much care what the religion is of their politicians now but they do get upset if other people try and make an issue of it in what is largely a secular country that doesn’t care about people’s religions

  27. Colonel Crispin Berka

    Two comments about the data PDF.

    1) There is no explanation of what “1st” and “2nd” columns mean in the results tables. This should be specified instead of leaving us to guess.

    2) Assuming the answer to #1 is that these two columns are the pre-election poll and the 2nd (post-election) poll, this is saying that 17% of people who ended up voting for “nationalist” parties had shifted their preferences from LNP over towards ALP by election day.

  28. Crossie

    FWIW My take is that the handouts on offer from the ALP failed to work as they expected because practically all the beneficiaries were anti-Conservative voters to start with.

    Labor keep forgetting the aspirational voters, a lot of whom are in the 18-35 age group and are ambitious to get on in life, acquire wealth and property. Benefits, no matter how generous, are just not enough for this group who want the opportunity to do it themselves. Only the political and academic groups in that age bracket want the government largesse.

  29. Crossie

    Most people simple will not openly discuss what is happening in this country, but after some gentle encouragement, the truth comes out. I see it, they see it, we all see it. You would have to be blind not to see that our society is being intentionally turned upside down.

    You have it right, Lilliana. Insanity rules in the media and most people don’t want to incite an attack from the lunatics so they keep their head down. Sometimes I wonder if we have somehow strayed into a parallel universe where everything is upside down or a mirror image of everything we knew only a scant number of years ago.

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