Election aficionados can pig out on this mass of information from the Australian Institute for Progress.
This was an election that Labor lost. It had too many policies that hurt too many people through higher taxes. This was meant to redistribute to poorer Australians and make the country fairer. But those who would lose were angry, and those who might win, unappreciative.
On top of that it actively alienated working Australians in the mining regions of Queensland and New South Wales by its lack of action on Adani specifically, and coal mining generally, and antagonised religious Australians by trying to wedge Scott Morrison on his Christianity and threatening to take rights away from Christian organisations in their staff hiring policies.
Morrison waged a chanceless campaign. He didn’t show a lot of flair, but he didn’t make any mistakes and cured the perception that the Coalition was weak and divided. He reconnected the party with its conservative rural base, and appears to have won the majority of undecided voters as they entered the polling booth.
The win looks larger than it is because the expectation of a Labor win was so high, but the government only has a bare majority, and a large proportion of voters either voted for third parties, or when they voted for the majors, did so unenthusiastically.
Climate change was the largest issue on the Labor/Greens side, but it didn’t translate into changes of voting intention. When it was mentioned by voters on the right it was generally in negative terms. Stability, taxes and the economy were the major issues on the right, with a smattering of cultural issues.
With such a close result we can expect the dysfunction of the last parliament to continue, unless one side or the other can develop a compelling narrative which converts voters to their cause. The best chance for this is for the Morrison government, if it can eat into the nationalist voter base and snare first preferences.
Labor will also be eyeing this group off, but it will be difficult for them as they stand to lose Green votes and preferences on the left if they try too hard to meet the demands of rural and regional voters.
FWIW My take is that the handouts on offer from the ALP failed to work as they expected because practically all the beneficiaries were anti-Conservative voters to start with.
Look out for power prices as the big issue next time.