China’s future clouded by the road not taken in 1989

Today in The Australian

On June 4, 1989, as the tanks rolled into Beijing’s Tiananmen Square, Lech Walesa’s Solidarity movement won a landslide victory over its communist rivals in the first democratic elections to be held in Poland — indeed, in Eastern ­Europe — since its forcible integration into the Soviet bloc.

About Henry Ergas

Henry Ergas AO is a columnist for The Australian. From 2009 to 2015 he was Senior Economic Adviser to Deloitte Australia and from 2009 to 2017 was Professor of Infrastructure Economics at the University of Wollongong’s SMART Infrastructure Facility. He joined SMART and Deloitte after working as a consultant economist at NECG, CRA International and Concept Economics. Prior to that, he was an economist at the OECD in Paris from the late 1970s until the early 1990s. At the OECD, he headed the Secretary-General’s Task Force on Structural Adjustment (1984-1987), which concentrated on improving the efficiency of government policies in a wide range of areas, and was subsequently Counsellor for Structural Policy in the Economics Department. He has taught at a range of universities, undertaken a number of government inquiries and served as a Lay Member of the New Zealand High Court. In 2016, he was made an Officer in the Order of Australia.
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6 Responses to China’s future clouded by the road not taken in 1989

  1. Talleyrand

    An excellent article by Mr. Ergas showing why personal freedoms lead to economic and political success and stability. Or you can just take the Cjina route and use a jackboot on the face of the people

  2. Speedbox

    The West has grossly misjudged China and we will pay a big price. They are not our friend and their blueprint for the (future) global world order will be at our expense (socially, politically, financially, militarily).

  3. Lilliana

    Speedbox
    #3042303, posted on June 14, 2019 at 12:14 pm

    I cannot fathom why people cannot see this. It is greed, denial or naivety?

  4. Rex Mango

    China will come crashing down as all command economies must, as you can’t beat the market forever. The golden rule with totalitarian dictatorships is 9 years after hosting the world’s biggest Olympics, your country ceases to exist. Think Berlin 1936 and Moscow 1980. However this didn’t happen after Beijing 2008, but maybe give it a year or two.

  5. max

    Gary North:

    Asian nations continue to give away their nation’s goods in exchange for promises of repayment in foreign currencies that will decline in value. Are they really this stupid? No. They are merely ill-informed economically. They do not believe Smith’s Wealth of Nations. They remain mercantilistic in their thinking. They think that promises to pay no interest, long-term, is worth buying.
    Why? Because they began subsidizing their export sectors as the pathway to wealth. They began inflating in order to keep down the price of their currencies in international markets. This made it cheaper for Western importers to buy their currencies, and in turn buy exported goods.
    Once their domestic investors had invested capital in factories to produce goods for Western consumers, any reduction of the subsidies would threaten unemployment. They have been riding the digital tiger.
    This domestic monetary inflation has created capital market bubbles in their nations. The governments fear a collapse of their stock markets and real estate markets. They fear widespread unemployment even more. So, they have instructed their central banks to inflate.

  6. Eyrie

    Talleyrand
    #3042200, posted on June 14, 2019 at 10:25 am

    ” An excellent article by Mr. Ergas showing why personal freedoms lead to economic and political success and stability. Or you can just take the Cjina route and use a jackboot on the face of the people”
    Australian politicians need to have a think about this too. There’s not a lot of freedom left in this country.

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