To reduce the load on the server Windwatch will not be posted daily. It will be updated regularly with a comment in the open thread to signal when it is done.
UPDATE SATURDAY 27. Wind running at 54% producing 3.6GW that represents 13% of demand.
UPDATE FRIDAY 28. At the peak wind was running at 45% producing 3GW that was 11% of demand.
UPDATE THURSDAY 27 At the evening peak Wind was running at 50% with 3.5GW to provide 12% of the load. At 9 it is up to 60% and delivering 4GW.
At dinnertime this Wednesday evening Wind recovered from 13% of its capacity in the late afternoon to approach 20% and deliver 1.3 of the 30 GW required to keep you warm and snug after work and cook your dinner. That is 4% of the total, twice the amount provided in the early evening on most days for the last week.
Around the states. What is happening in Tasmania?
Where is all this going? Does it mean that we are just one coal-fired power station away from blackouts across parts of SE Australia, starting with South Australia and Victoria? Not that SA matters, who noticed when it went black for three days in 2016? But Victoria?
Liddell is supposed to close in 2022 and that takes out about 2GW. By that time there might be another 15GW of plated capacity in the wind system for a total of (say) 22 compared with about 7.5 at present (it changes almost monthly).
22GW running at 3% of capacity (like some of the time last week) is less than 1GW, that is about half of Liddell!
Worse than that, as the wind and solar capacity builds, quite likely some other plant in addition to Liddell will close because it will be losing too much money to keep running. Take out another GW or two of reliable baseload out of the system and see what happens when the wind dies in the evening.
This is back of the envelop stuff, what are the more precise figures that people in AEMO should be reporting?