Sun and Windwatch at the peaks. Update July 3 –

MONDAY 8: 8.35AM Wind + Sun combined = 1.9 of 26.3 (7%) and Wind alone 1.1 (17% of capacity) and 4.5% of the load.

SUNDAY 7th PM: 6.05pm No sun, Wind 1.2GW = 17% capacity & 5% of the 26GW load.

SUNDAY 7th AM: At 9.20 Sun and Wind delivered 3.5 of 23GW demand = 14%. Wind blowing at 30% capacity gave 2GW = 8%.

SATURDAY 6th pm: Wind provided 2.4 of 25.7 = 10%.

SATURDAY 6th AM: At 9.10 Wind and Solar combined, 4GW of 24.8 (16%) and Wind alone 3GW (12%).

FRIDAY 5th EVENING. At 6.15 wind was delivering 7% of the peak load.

FRIDAY 5th MORNING. At 8.35 RE in total provided 4.3 of 27.5 = 15% and wind alone provided 2.8 = 10%.

THURSDAY 4 EVENING. At 6.20 wind was picking up strongly from 1.5GW at 3pm to deliver 2.1GW of 28.9 = 7%.

THURSDAY 4 MORNING. At 8.15 the sun and wind combined to provide 3.5GW, 13% of 27.5. Wind alone provided 2.2 or 8%. As demand went down the sun was coming up and the unreliables were settling down to eat the lunch of the coal-fired stations for the rest of the day until the sun goes down before the real work of the day has to be done.

Bonus.Some things about the European wood pellet market that you wanted to know but were afraid to ask. And the impact of the EU wood pellet market on the forests of SE United States.

WEDNESDAY 3. EVENING. At 6.20 Wind provided 1.3 of 28.8GW = 5%.

MORNING. The morning peak is usually lower than the evening peak and the sun is up. The AEMO site counts Water with the RE but I am leaving out water to focus on the sun and the wind. Wind and Sun at the 8.15 peak provided 2.8 of 28GW, that is 10%.

Tuesday 2. The wind trended down all day, getting under 14% at the evening peak to contribute less than 1Gw to the 29GW demand, that is about 3%.

Monday 1. Wind at 48%, much the same as the previous 24 hours, that is 3.2GW that represents 10% of the peak demand.

UPDATE SATURDAY 27. Wind running at 54% producing 3.6GW that represents 13% of demand.

UPDATE FRIDAY 28. At the peak wind was running at 45% producing 3GW that was 11% of demand.

UPDATE THURSDAY 27 At the evening peak Wind was running at 50% with 3.5GW to provide 12% of the load. At 9 it is up to 60% and delivering 4GW.

At dinnertime Wednesday 26 evening Wind recovered from 13% of its capacity in the late afternoon to approach 20% and deliver 1.3 of the 30 GW required to keep you warm and snug after work and cook your dinner. That is 4% of the total, twice the amount provided in the early evening on most days for the last week.

Thanks to MarkM for this exchange when Greta met Alexandria.

Nice to see Alan Moran’s report that the Fin Review has caught up with Catallaxy and Jo Nova. But how do you unscramble an omlette? And how do you spell it as well?

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22 Responses to Sun and Windwatch at the peaks. Update July 3 –

  1. wal1957

    Yeah but save the planet and all that stuff….

    How many years have we got left now???

    How many false predictions are the gerbil warming fraudsters allowed to get wrong before the politicians finally acknowledge that it is all a con????

  2. AndrewWA

    East Coast Grid – 2 July 2019

    It’s easy to see the relatively minor contribution from WIND & SOLAR when most eeded during the AM & PM peak demand periods.

    Please don’t let the Greens claim HYDRO power as their own as they’d never allow these projects to be built today. “NO MORE DAMS”.

  3. teamv

    Meanwhile QLD is looking to spend billions building a HV distribution line out to the far north west so they can build more solar farms to connect to the grid.

    https://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/copperstring-20-transmission-project-powering-up-norths-15-billion-network/news-story/93d666ef661a15af8ae38fe2c6c1bd1b

    Even though the network is constrained from the North of the state to the South and oversupply is already occuring.

    http://www.wattclarity.com.au/articles/2018/11/crunch-coming-oversupply-in-northern-queensland/

  4. mem

    But it’s getting hotter somewhere in France so the world must be heating up according to the AGW/UN propagandists. Read this article and imagine what would happen now it we didn’t have reliable or affordable electricity to provide air conditioning or refrigeration. https://notrickszone.com/2019/07/02/frances-70-day-heat-wave-of-1911-killed-41000-in-uninterrupted-heat-most-were-babies/

    Le Parisien summarized: “In total, the 1911 heat wave, which lasted until mid-September, caused 41,072 deaths in France” and that most of the victims were either the elderly or babies under two years of age. Overall the tragedy saw infant mortality increase 20%.

    “This year will have to be marked with a black cross,” wrote a doctor in his diary. In contrast, the French heat wave of 2003 killed 15,000.

    500,000 dead in 1636
    There were also other “murderous summers” in France, Le Parisien writes that thanks to the work of Emmanuel Le Roy-Ladurie, “we know that a terrible heat wave in 1636 killed 500,000 of King Louis XIII’s subjects.” Many of the deaths resulted from epidemics of dysentery as water supplies dwindled and soured.

  5. Mark M

    The RBA, when taking global warming into account for setting interest rates:

    “What if droughts are more frequent, or cyclones happen more often?

    The challenges we have to address are to take the outcomes from climate modelling and map them into our economic modelling. ”

    https://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2019/sp-dg-2019-03-12.html

    What if cyclones aren’t more frequent, which is the currently the case, and basic physics can not explain it?

    What if the wind doesn’t blow, and floods are not anticipated, like the devastating FNQ floods of February, 2019, where over 5000,000 cattle were lost?

    As AOC said to Greta: “So I’m curious, given how daunting the issue is, why aren’t you so filled with despair that you’re staying on your couch every day, and just waiting for the apocalypse?”

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/jun/29/alexandria-ocasio-cortez-met-greta-thunberg-hope-contagious-climate

  6. Rafe Champion

    Thanks Andrew, for some reason I haven’t taken much notice of the morning peak because its a bit lower but the key point you picked up is that the sun is hardly contributing at that time of day, maybe less now than it was in the summer when I started windwatching. Anyway the more you look the worse it gets as others are pointing out.

  7. stevem

    It would probably be a good thing for both Victoria and South Australia to be blacked out at the same time for an hour or two (fortunately I’m in NSW). There needs to be huge public outcry and understanding of the looming problems before more coal fired stations are allowed to close.
    The generation companies will reduce maintenance in the year or two prior to decommissioning of a plant and action needs to be taken before that wind-down starts.

  8. Eyrie

    Could some please fire that effwit Philip Lowe before he does any more damage? Preferably from a cannon.

  9. mem

    One has to admire the Greeks.

    The Greek government has stated that it will go ahead with plans to renew subsidies to the coal sector and allow drilling for natural gas despite warnings from the scientific community that our future is in jeopardy if we continue down this path.

    “The Greek government must immediately reconsider its irresponsible plans to exploit its fossil fuel resources by allowing natural gas exploitation in its Exclusive Economic Zone and continuing to provide subsidies to the coal sector,” said the co-chairs of the European Green Party Monica Frassoni and Reinhard Bütikofer reacting to the Greek government plans.

    https://www.europeaninterest.eu/article/greece-slamming-door-green-jobs-future/

  10. RobK

    Complicating matters is the fact that batteries are increasingly supplying “ancillary services “ to have an effect of buffering. When wind power input is low ( but as always, fluctuating) it becomes difficult to recharge the buffering with renewables. The opposite extreme exists when it is very windy, all storage rapidly becomes full and curtailment follows (reducing the capacity factor of the investment).
    The random nature of the weather means management of such a system favours massive redundancy, which increases systems costs.

  11. AndrewWA

    Excellent point RobK.
    We have already created “massive redundancy” by the way we underutilise existing reliable, predictable and lower cost power sources to preferentially take highertotal cost WIND & SOLAR (which are effectivelt given a ‘free’ ride.

  12. Mark M

    It would seem sea sponge intellectualism appears to be particularly pervasive among RBA:

    Ocasio-Cortez: I Was Joking About The World Ending In 12 Years, And You’re An Idiot If You Believed Me

    https://www.dailywire.com/news/47098/ocasio-cortez-i-was-joking-about-world-ending-12-amanda-prestigiacomo

    The problem with predicting the end the world

    Famous warmists squirm over “end of the world” BS: Trenberth says “the world will go on w. or w/o humans”; Gleick knows CO2 won’t end the world in 12 yrs & correctly fears skeptics will have lots of fun mocking warmists when that doesn’t happen.

    https://www.salon.com/2019/06/30/the-problem-with-predicting-the-end-the-world/

    Why wait 12 years to mock them?

    Do it now!

  13. yackman

    Defensive measures we are looking at:
    1. buy a small generator for essentials (2 kVA?) or larger (7 kVA?) if rural without noise constraints
    2. have an isolater and input point for the larger generator to the house circuit. a number of people we know have done this and we plan to have this for next summer if practicable.
    3. install a large fixed generator (12 kVA?) for the ability to operate more appliances. Gas would be great to minimise fuel storage but options are more limited at this stage it seems. This is a major project but may be possible in rural areas. Expensive & requires paperwork re regulation.

  14. Rafe:

    Where is all this going? It probably means that we are just one coal-fired power station away from blackouts across parts of SE Australia, starting with South Australia and Victoria? Not that SA matters, who noticed when it went black for three days in 2016? But Victoria?

    People don’t have a clue as to how our electrical transmission system will behave in the event of a failure cascade. There will be little warning:

    The preliminary report from the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) identified that problems started 90 seconds before the eventual failure. The first line to trip was a 66 kV line near Adelaide, and it was automatically reset. The first major fault was 47 seconds later when two phases of the 275 kV line between Brinkworth and Templers grounded. The Davenport–Belalie line tripped with one phase to ground, was automatically reset, but tripped again nine seconds later, so was isolated for manual inspection, with the fault estimated to be 42 km (26 mi) from Davenport. One second later (7 seconds before the state went dark), the Hallett Wind Farm reduced output by 123 MW. Four seconds later, a third 275 kV transmission line showed a fault, the Davenport–Mount Lock is on the other side of the same towers as Davenport–Belalie, and the fault was estimated to be 1 km (0.6 mi) further on. The damaged power lines caused 5–6 voltage glitches which stressed the ride-through capability of most of the wind farm capacity, causing nine of them to shut down:[10] Finally, all within one second, the Hornsdale Wind Farm reduced output by 86 MW, Snowtown Wind Farm reduced output by 106 MW, the Heywood interconnector flow increased to over 850 MW and both of its circuits tripped out due to the overload. Supply was then lost to the entire South Australian region of the National Electricity Market, as the Torrens Island Power Station, Ladbroke Grove Power Station, Murraylink interconnector and all remaining wind farms tripped.[11]

    Link from Wikipaedia.
    90 seconds warning.
    That was all they got.

  15. John Bayley

    Could some please fire that effwit Philip Lowe before he does any more damage?

    He’s far from alone – all the central wankers, I mean bankers, only have that one rule book:
    “If something does not work, keep doing more of it until it does!”

    How anyone believes that these morons somehow know how to “run” the economy is beyond me, but then again, I also don’t believe that “2% inflation” is somehow beneficial – even if they could actually measure it correctly.

    Empty slogans & sh*t for brains. Just like those pushing the current “energy policy”.

    Sack. Them. All.

  16. Dr Fred Lenin

    Cutting interest rates to the thrifty who itwill assist fighting climate catastrophe ? How the hell does that work ? Thes people shoud be sectioned under the mental health act lock them up in the foolish house , get them to hell out of our lives .
    When Qld is grossly oversupplied during off peak times what happens after dark? The place is made of coal ! Use it you wankers ,or arent he coalies as gnerous with their brbes as the carpetbaggers .

  17. Howard Hill

    Winston Smith
    #3096114, posted on July 3, 2019 at 11:43 am

    People don’t have a clue as to how our electrical transmission system will behave in the event of a failure cascade. There will be little warning:

    I know three brothers that own a company that put up power poles. Not one of them has any idea of how the grid works or the consequences of this insanity and they’re trained linesmen. What hope would the average Joe have? The average Joe gets their information from Nein news and that slag on acurrentamakeupbullshit. We’re fooked!

    On another note. How much of this insanity is linked to the fraudulent compulsory super scheme. Aren’t they all heavily invested in this theft of peoples labour to keep them in the money?

  18. cohenite

    And don’t forget, wind solar produce DC not AC; with a rooftop array the dearest component is the inverter which converts the DC to AC for use by appliances and transfer to the grid. With large wind and solar farms not only do you have huge grid connection expenses but DC conversion and frequency (ie management of ruinable surge presentation of their power) expenses as well.

    I can’t find the information but I reckon the additional connection/conversion/levelling expenses of ruinables is at least 50% of the initial capital costs.

    People who advocate ruinables should be jailed.

  19. Ben

    We should all be grateful for our wise bureaucrats buying into equitable load shedding amongst the states

    https://www.aemc.gov.au/sites/default/files/content//Guidelines-for-Management-of-Electricity-Supply-Shortfall-Events.PDF

  20. Enoch Root

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N-yALPEpV4w

    Environmentalist, former renewables enthusiast, talk about them. Nothing that we don’t know. If all those environmentalists (this one included) have paid more attention to physics class in school instead of trying to save the world, we could have avoided the mess they’ve put us all into.

    The final phrase of the presentation is likely to be mind-blowing for this morons. I think this is the kind of question that we should promote in order to get this message to our politicians. (I am not going to spoil it. Go watch the video).

  21. Ben

    There is a logical inconsistency with using more weather dependent power sources as the weather is becoming more unpredictable (allegedly).

  22. AndrewWA

    To cohenite: People who advocate ruinables should be jailed.

    I tried to point that out to the zealots at Renew Economy and was banned in <24 hours.

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