The point is to consider the situation when Liddell closes, taking 2GW of reliable baseload out of the system. How much reserve is there to cover the evening peak of demand when the sun is gone and the wind is low? And how much wind capacity is required to provide 2GW on days when the wind drops to 2 or 3% of plated capacity, which happened on one day in June.
What is the load-shedding plan to cater for this situation?
We appear to be sailing very close to the wind, as they say.
And there is the dependence of the South on the interconnectors from Queensland where the coal stations are the anchor of the whole system at present. As a matter of idle curiosity, how hard is it to blow up an interconnector? Apparently the IRA did it on the N Ireland border. No I don’t want to, honest, some of my best friends are Victorians. Just asking for a friend.
WEDNESDAY 10: 8.10am Wind and Sun combined 4.3 of 27.5 = 17% and Wind alone (3.2 of 7 plated capacity = 47% of capacity) and 13%% of demand.
TUESDAY 9 EVENING: 6.20pm Wind at 22% of 7 (plated capacity) delivering 1.5GW of 29 demand = 5%.
TUESDAY 9 MORNING: 8am Wind and Sun combined 2.1 of 27 = 8% and Wind alone (1.2 of 7 plated capacity = 16% of capacity) and 4.5% of demand.
MONDAY 8 EVENING: 6.20pm Wind at 17% of 7 (plated capacity) delivering 1.1GW of 28.5 demand = 4%.
MONDAY 8: 8.35AM Wind + Sun combined = 1.9 of 26.3 (7%) and Wind alone 1.1 (17% of capacity) and 4.5% of the load.
SUNDAY 7th PM: 6.05pm No sun, Wind 1.2GW = 17% capacity & 5% of the 26GW load.
SUNDAY 7th AM: At 9.20 Sun and Wind delivered 3.5 of 23GW demand = 14%. Wind blowing at 30% capacity gave 2GW = 8%.
SATURDAY 6th pm: Wind provided 2.4 of 25.7 = 10%.
SATURDAY 6th AM: At 9.10 Wind and Solar combined, 4GW of 24.8 (16%) and Wind alone 3GW (12%).
FRIDAY 5th EVENING. At 6.15 wind was delivering 7% of the peak load.
FRIDAY 5th MORNING. At 8.35 RE in total provided 4.3 of 27.5 = 15% and wind alone provided 2.8 = 10%.
THURSDAY 4 EVENING. At 6.20 wind was picking up strongly from 1.5GW at 3pm to deliver 2.1GW of 28.9 = 7%.
THURSDAY 4 MORNING. At 8.15 the sun and wind combined to provide 3.5GW, 13% of 27.5. Wind alone provided 2.2 or 8%. As demand went down the sun was coming up and the unreliables were settling down to eat the lunch of the coal-fired stations for the rest of the day until the sun goes down before the real work of the day has to be done.
WEDNESDAY 3. EVENING. At 6.20 Wind provided 1.3 of 28.8GW = 5%.
MORNING. The morning peak is usually lower than the evening peak and the sun is up. The AEMO site counts Water with the RE but I am leaving out water to focus on the sun and the wind. Wind and Sun at the 8.15 peak provided 2.8 of 28GW, that is 10%.
Tuesday 2. The wind trended down all day, getting under 14% at the evening peak to contribute less than 1Gw to the 29GW demand, that is about 3%.
Monday 1. Wind at 48%, much the same as the previous 24 hours, that is 3.2GW that represents 10% of the peak demand.
UPDATE SATURDAY 27. Wind running at 54% producing 3.6GW that represents 13% of demand.
UPDATE FRIDAY 28. At the peak wind was running at 45% producing 3GW that was 11% of demand.
UPDATE THURSDAY 27 At the evening peak Wind was running at 50% with 3.5GW to provide 12% of the load. At 9 it is up to 60% and delivering 4GW.
At dinnertime Wednesday 26 evening Wind recovered from 13% of its capacity in the late afternoon to approach 20% and deliver 1.3 of the 30 GW required to keep you warm and snug after work and cook your dinner. That is 4% of the total, twice the amount provided in the early evening on most days for the last week.