Windwatch update 8 July

The point is to consider the situation when Liddell closes, taking 2GW of reliable baseload out of the system. How much reserve is there to cover the evening peak of demand when the sun is gone and the wind is low? And how much wind capacity is required to provide 2GW on days when the wind drops to 2 or 3% of plated capacity, which happened on one day in June.

What is the load-shedding plan to cater for this situation?

We appear to be sailing very close to the wind, as they say.

And there is the dependence of the South on the interconnectors from Queensland where the coal stations are the anchor of the whole system at present. As a matter of idle curiosity, how hard is it to blow up an interconnector? Apparently the IRA did it on the N Ireland border. No I don’t want to, honest, some of my best friends are Victorians. Just asking for a friend.

WEDNESDAY 10: 8.10am Wind and Sun combined 4.3 of 27.5 = 17% and Wind alone (3.2 of 7 plated capacity = 47% of capacity) and 13%% of demand.

TUESDAY 9 EVENING: 6.20pm Wind at 22% of 7 (plated capacity) delivering 1.5GW of 29 demand = 5%.

TUESDAY 9 MORNING: 8am Wind and Sun combined 2.1 of 27 = 8% and Wind alone (1.2 of 7 plated capacity = 16% of capacity) and 4.5% of demand.

MONDAY 8 EVENING: 6.20pm Wind at 17% of 7 (plated capacity) delivering 1.1GW of 28.5 demand = 4%.

MONDAY 8: 8.35AM Wind + Sun combined = 1.9 of 26.3 (7%) and Wind alone 1.1 (17% of capacity) and 4.5% of the load.

SUNDAY 7th PM: 6.05pm No sun, Wind 1.2GW = 17% capacity & 5% of the 26GW load.

SUNDAY 7th AM: At 9.20 Sun and Wind delivered 3.5 of 23GW demand = 14%. Wind blowing at 30% capacity gave 2GW = 8%.

SATURDAY 6th pm: Wind provided 2.4 of 25.7 = 10%.

SATURDAY 6th AM: At 9.10 Wind and Solar combined, 4GW of 24.8 (16%) and Wind alone 3GW (12%).

FRIDAY 5th EVENING. At 6.15 wind was delivering 7% of the peak load.

FRIDAY 5th MORNING. At 8.35 RE in total provided 4.3 of 27.5 = 15% and wind alone provided 2.8 = 10%.

THURSDAY 4 EVENING. At 6.20 wind was picking up strongly from 1.5GW at 3pm to deliver 2.1GW of 28.9 = 7%.

THURSDAY 4 MORNING. At 8.15 the sun and wind combined to provide 3.5GW, 13% of 27.5. Wind alone provided 2.2 or 8%. As demand went down the sun was coming up and the unreliables were settling down to eat the lunch of the coal-fired stations for the rest of the day until the sun goes down before the real work of the day has to be done.

WEDNESDAY 3. EVENING. At 6.20 Wind provided 1.3 of 28.8GW = 5%.

MORNING. The morning peak is usually lower than the evening peak and the sun is up. The AEMO site counts Water with the RE but I am leaving out water to focus on the sun and the wind. Wind and Sun at the 8.15 peak provided 2.8 of 28GW, that is 10%.

Tuesday 2. The wind trended down all day, getting under 14% at the evening peak to contribute less than 1Gw to the 29GW demand, that is about 3%.

Monday 1. Wind at 48%, much the same as the previous 24 hours, that is 3.2GW that represents 10% of the peak demand.

UPDATE SATURDAY 27. Wind running at 54% producing 3.6GW that represents 13% of demand.

UPDATE FRIDAY 28. At the peak wind was running at 45% producing 3GW that was 11% of demand.

UPDATE THURSDAY 27 At the evening peak Wind was running at 50% with 3.5GW to provide 12% of the load. At 9 it is up to 60% and delivering 4GW.

At dinnertime Wednesday 26 evening Wind recovered from 13% of its capacity in the late afternoon to approach 20% and deliver 1.3 of the 30 GW required to keep you warm and snug after work and cook your dinner. That is 4% of the total, twice the amount provided in the early evening on most days for the last week.

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32 Responses to Windwatch update 8 July

  1. Karabar

    MORE 11th century technology!
    The morons that crow about 50% ruinable energy seem to have swayed the ignorant and gullible.

  2. stackja

    Fiona Wingett, The Daily Telegraph
    Subscriber only

    July 8, 2019 8:38am

    AT LAST WE’RE COOKING WITH GAS

    DECEMBER 19, 1945: Housewives may be allowed to use gas and electricity between 10am and 2pm to cook dinner on Christmas Day.

    Due to wartime restrictions that are still in place, gas and electricity can only be used for cooking on Christmas Day between 5.30pm and 7pm. A cooking expert said the average Christmas dinner would take between two to three hours to cook and, with most families having a hot Christmas dinner in the middle of the day, it would be impossible under the restrictions.

    But Local Government Minister J.J. Cahill said yesterday a decision would be made this morning about easing the ban.

    Minister for Transport Maurice Sullivan announced yesterday that tram services would again stop from 2pm on Saturday until early on Monday morning.

    By stopping the trams last weekend, the government had saved nearly 350 tons of coal, the minister said.

  3. Rafe Champion

    On that note Stackja I started drafting a post the other day on the theme of returning to the great days of sailing ships when everything depended on the wind!

  4. Jock

    Rage. Good stuff but can I suggest you provide the actual plated capacity of wind and solar. If people see that 10 he of wind only delivers 1 to 3 he 90 percent of the time will cause greater angst. It will also highlight the redundant capacity paid for via subsidies and other benefits. That would be quite telling.

  5. Perfidious Albino

    Given the mythical sway renewables seem to hold over large swathes of the populace and without wanting to seem too callous, it might almost be best in the long run if the grid did collapse… it might finally force people to confront the reality.

  6. What should happen is that for every name plate kW that every windmill fails to deliver, that difference in dollars/kWh that the taxpayer pays to subsidise the operation of these totem poles should be paid back to consumers on a daily basis.

  7. RobK

    Regarding the stability of interconnecters; the system itself will be the most likely cause of a failure. The rate of change of feed into the grid due to renewables often exceeds fluctuations in demand. The operators have their hands full routing energy at the moment. Some buffering from batteries helps, as do rotary condensers, but the constant monitoring and curtailment environment will simply become more intense…. waiting for an error, misjudgment or control failure. Not if , but when.

  8. Cardimona

    Crashing the grid is a feature of the urbanite woketard bugman nihilists’ plan to enlighten us ignorant deniers, not a bug.

    Today’s Townville Bully has a story on renewabubble jobs…

    Renewables jobs crank up
    MADURA MCCORMACK

    JOBS in Townsville’s renewables sector are set to grow, with more than 200 jobs to be created when construction of a major solar farm begins.

    Construction on the ($210 miilion) 110MW Rollingstone Solar Farm, 60km northwest of the city, is set to begin early next year, developer ESCO Pacific has revealed. Once complete, the solar project will have enough capacity to power more than 50,000 homes.

    An official for ESCO Pacific, the same company behind the 148MW Ross River Solar Farm, said more than 200 full-time jobs would be supported during the nine month construction period.

    Six full-time jobs will be created during operation, with half of those to be supported in the region.

    My response to the “Text the editor” column…

    “Renewables jobs crank up” (TB, 8/7) and drive everyone else out of work. The US Department of Energy in 2016 reported on the energy workforce versus energy produced. “Coal – 7,745 megawatt-hours per worker. Gas – 3,812 megawatt-hours per worker. Solar – 98 megawatt-hours per worker.” But renewables will make electricity cheaper? No. They just make electricity unaffordable, which is killing our poor, our grannies, and our jobs. End the climate scam now.

  9. RobK

    Grid conductors are designed for coping with maximum demand when their capacity is determined. In a RE disrupted grid which has “distributed “ supply it is unknown just which supply will fill a demand from one minute to the next. Current capacity limits are tested in a random manner continuously. A disaster in waiting.

  10. John Constantine

    Mr Sweeney said evidence recovered included fake identifications, large amounts of cash, maps and research about the electricity network.

    To attack the sub-stations, he claimed the IRA cell had brought six pairs of extendible ladders, bolt cutters, and crow bars.

    The prosecution will argue that Mr Gannon obtained a map of the electricity network from the annual Electricity Supply Handbook which he took from Battersea public library in London. Mr Brampton was arrested in Birmingham by West Midlands police on the same day as the seven defendants in London.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/how-ira-plotted-to-switch-off-london-1266533.html

  11. stackja

    Rafe Champion
    #3099679, posted on July 8, 2019 at 10:40 am
    On that note Stackja I started drafting a post the other day on the theme of returning to the great days of sailing ships when everything depended on the wind!

    Lost Sydney: Windmill Street Quarry – Visit Sydney Australia
    http://www.visitsydneyaustralia.com.au/lost-quarries11.html
    Windmill Street Quarry. Windmill Street was so named because it led to the windmill on Cockle Bay Point at its western end. Part of Windmill Street was a sandstone quarry site around the turn of the 19th century, which explains why it dips in the middle and is not as elevated as Argyle Place.

    Europeans arrive and Millers Point is born
    Millers Point’s rugged ridgeline and muddy shores initially deterred European settlers, but its exposed promontory proved the ideal location for windmills.

    19th Century wind power in the 21st Century!

  12. John Constantine

    Drones flying chains up to the interconnector power cables and shorting them out could trigger a failure cascade risk free for a few hundy bucks.

    Sounds less of a suicide mission than using bolt cutters and crowbars.

  13. Rafe Champion

    The joy of technological progress!

  14. max

    Can some one make new post with this:

    Kath Naish

    Destroying Australia | The Saturday Paper “You don’t pay tax in exchange for services. You pay tax for a society. Under Morrison, you pay less tax and you have less society.



    “Destroying Australia”: Aussies react to Coalition’s tax cuts
    https://au.finance.yahoo.com/news/destroying-australia-aussies-react-coalitions-tax-cuts-043123801.html

    At the time of Federation Australia’s tax to GDP ratio was around 5 per cent.

    Wow, No society in Australia in 1901

  15. RobK

    Drones flying chains……
    It needn’t be that high tech.

  16. Rohan

    As a matter of idle curiosity, how hard is it to blow up an interconnector?

    Those transmission towers are built with safety factor of about 150% IIRC. That’s for wind load too. There’s not much compression weight load, so bending moment is key to their design. Even then, they are fairly flimsy. It’d be easy enough to cut the leg of a tower with a little explosives knowledge. I’d wager that that would be enough to bring one down, especially when the wind picks up. Do that with enough towers and it would be a mess for weeks to months.

    Kill the main transformers in a sub station and it would be down for a lot longer than that. Years.

  17. BrettW

    This info should be constantly in the newspapers but it is not. The politicians are just letting the power problem get worse whilst hyping renewables and in some cases outright lying about its capabilities.

    Sleepwalking towards disaster.

  18. Rafe Champion

    Thanks Jock.
    Point taken.

  19. Perfidious Albino:

    Given the mythical sway renewables seem to hold over large swathes of the populace and without wanting to seem too callous, it might almost be best in the long run if the grid did collapse… it might finally force people to confront the reality.

    That’s the line I’ve been pushing for the last 18 months. They can learn the hard way, or the other hard way.

  20. John Constantine:

    To attack the sub-stations, he claimed the IRA cell had brought six pairs of extendible ladders, bolt cutters, and crow bars.

    I was under the impression the transformers were full of oil. Is that right?
    Then if that’s the case, they only needed to empty a 30 round mag of 7.62mm into the transformer yard to get a satisfactory bang.
    Why would you need a ladder, bolt cutter and crowbars to do the damage?
    Yes, I’ll stand there with a metal crowbar, jabbing it into machinery with gallumpteem million volts running through its guts.
    NOT.

  21. John Constantine

    Right size socket, with a pipe extension for leverage, and undo the interconnector tower silently like a meccano toy.

    Or lithium power with a little rattle.

  22. John Constantine

    Sling chainshot from a trebuchet.

    Old tech reduces the place to the dark ages overnight.

  23. John Constantine:

    Sling chainshot from a trebuchet.
    Old tech reduces the place to the dark ages overnight.

    I tried that, but it requires a ten foot length of material at one end to make the chain flare out otherwise it just balls up.
    🙂

  24. Boambee John

    Rob K at 1115

    the constant monitoring and curtailment environment will simply become more intense…. waiting for an error, misjudgment or control failure. Not if , but when.

    So, just like the poor design and operating complexities that led to human error at Chernobyl? The result might not be as drastic, but when poor design and a complex operating system are combined, failure at some time becomes inevitable.

  25. Boambee John:

    So, just like the poor design and operating complexities that led to human error at Chernobyl? The result might not be as drastic, but when poor design and a complex operating system are combined, failure at some time becomes inevitable.

    All catastrophes occur as a chain of interconnected events, as you’d be aware.
    With the power distribution and generating systems you can see the safety links breaking/twisting/and deforming under pressure.
    The cascade slowly gets a head of steam up, but the operators, who have been telling the administrators that the bloody thing is going to break, are being ignored.
    The administrators are lying back in the sunshine of their self reflected immunity because those sorts of things happen in third world countries – not in Australia.
    “Boy!” snaps the fingers. “another round of Pina Colada for my friends!”

  26. MatrixTransform

    LOL.
    In the middle of the night last night I almost posted …

    How’s this wind, heh?

  27. Dr Fred Lenin

    When the crash inevitably happens it will take a lot of fixing to get back to the past energy comfort zone .
    The politicians who caused the crash will have retired to spend more time with their huge bank accounts and directorships of renewable boards . We will be left to sort it out ,the bribe money will be in the Caymans alongside turnbulls and the climate scam profits . We will have to extradite the culprits from the burrows they will be hiding in with the other rabbits .

  28. yarpos

    You think VIC is the one on trouble? So NSW will will just slide through magically. Good old Sydney hubris shining through.

  29. yarpos

    Not sure what the point of this is. Fundamentally coal runs flat out, wind and solar do what wind and solar do, gas and hydro adjust to accomodate. More wind and solar, more problems.

  30. John Constantine

    I was nowhere near Mortlake when the gas electricity plant blew up today.

  31. Rafe Champion

    yarpos, brown coal runs at 4GW 24 hours a day. Black coal ramps up and down between 11 and 14GW with a lot of small spikes to adjust to the fluctuating input of the unreliables. Gas and Water adjust as well and various other kinds of gas come on line as required.
    This morning I had coffee with a fellow who has a friend in a power station, they are on their toes all day to keep on top of the situation. And of course between the peaks the black coal can’t run at the optimum level, hence they will go out of business because they cannot run flat out.
    The point of this is that it should be in the face of all politicians in case something can be done before the shit hits the fan again.

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