Antarctic cooling while the ice retreats. Very complex system! No cause for alarm.

Very interesting work in the Antarctic is reported by Jo Nova in two recent posts. Today the report concerns the long-term temperature extracted from a massive study recently published. The most recent shift is downwards after a very slight shift upwards late in the 20th century following a very long cold spell that extended from the Little Ice Age deep into the 20th century.

The other story is the change from expansion to retreat of the Antarctic ice. Remarkably the scientists involved have refrained from linking this to global warming and most remarkably New Scientist has shown admirable restraint “To argue that this recent dip is evidence of the start of a longer term decline driven by greenhouse warming is premature.” They are still talking about the cooling of the water in the vicinity and clearly the system is so large and complex that things like the the measured retreat of ice can lag cooling effects that will tend to reverse it.

The long term trend is still rising, but its now only half the rate it was in 2014. On this blog, Mike Jonas recently demonstrated that the Southern Ocean had cooled, not warmed as all the models predicted. But what matters here is that sea ice covers 7% of the world and we don’t know what caused it.

Decades of expanding sea ice in Antarctica have been wiped out by three years of sudden and dramatic declines, leaving scientist puzzled as to why the region has flipped so abruptly. However, researchers cautioned against pinning the changes on climate change and said it was too early to say if the shrinking is the start of a long-term trend or a blip.

The decline may just be natural variability, driven by shift in wind patterns which influence the extent of Antarctic sea ice, says Mark Serreze, director of the US National Snow and Ice Data Center. “To argue that this recent dip is evidence of the start of a longer term decline driven by greenhouse warming is premature.” — New Scientist.

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13 Responses to Antarctic cooling while the ice retreats. Very complex system! No cause for alarm.

  1. teamv

    Any consideration of the antarctic needs to include the large magma chamber which is under the west antarctic region.

    It is interesting that the warming aligns with the more active solar activity.

  2. Chris

    Vulcanise under the ice.

  3. mem

    Off topic but related. The Ukraine is going ahead with even more funding for coal. https://menafn.com/1098743381/UkraineGovernment-to-allocate-UAH-1-bln-in-subsidies-for-state-coal-mines. MENAFN – UkrinForm)

  4. egg_

    Very complex system!

    Sure to be a challenge to Academics, then.

  5. Complex indeed.
    Given the huge size of the ice block to the south of us and the insulative properties of ice, a simple explanation is unlikely.

  6. mem

    Barnaby understands the complexity “The very idea that we can stop climate change is barking mad. Climate change is inevitable, as geology has always shown.” These are the views of New Zealand lecturer of geology, David Shelley. A person vastly more competent than me and the flotilla of others telling the kids the world is going to end from global warming.

    The central theme of David Shelley’s analysis is that sea levels are rising and have been for thousands of years and will fall during the next ice age whic…
    See more https://www.facebook.com/BarnabyJoyceMP/posts/1487896738001939

  7. Dr Fred Lenin

    It is impossible to seal the borders from illegal migrants ,so open the orders up and let them in and give them our money for not working ,
    However we CAN change the climate by destroying western industry .
    Wait on ! Where are you going to get the welfare money from for the illegals ?
    Erhhhh emmmm ummh , never mind global crisis must be adressed we only have a short time to fix it .
    What about China India etc increasing emissions ? Errh emmmm ahh,we must adress the disaster now .

  8. egg_

    and the insulative properties of ice, a simple explanation is unlikely.

    Ditto the Greenland ice sheet.

  9. FelixKruell

    So complex it can’t be modelled with any accuracy. Yet we rely on predictions from these models to justify catastrophic harm to our economy. Madness.

  10. hzhousewife

    Barnaby understands the complexity “The very idea that we can stop climate change is barking mad. Climate change is inevitable, as geology has always shown.” These are the views of New Zealand lecturer of geology, David Shelley.

    How to get these views more well known is the issue, before the financial aspects constrict the economy too much. On RN this morning I think I did hear that some Vic large energy users eg the aluminium smelter, were beginning to be nervous about electricity supply now that Mortlake is compromised. These manufacturers should be actively telling their workers and their banks what is happening. Plastic bags are a minor side irritant imho.

  11. I_am_not_a_robot

    There was a slight increase in the satellite extent of SH sea ice 1979 – 2014 in inverse correlation to the satellite global temperature.
    Looking at the overall SH ice extent and long-term (1979-2018) average, the noticeable ‘bump’ 2012-2016 didn’t excite any imminent ice age hysteria at The Guardian I’ll bet.

  12. Leo G

    The “Cause” is all about alarm.

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