Lets hear it for the urban heat island effect

Yesterday I was writing about the 97% consensus on human-induced warming. Of course we are all part of the consensus as defined by Cook and associates because they consider any warming and any human contribution as AGW. If we don’t want to accept CO2-driven warming we can still be a part of the “consensus” on the basis of the human contribution in the urban heat island effect.

Consequently their “consensus” is meaningless.

The thought occurred that the urban heat island effect is not just something that affects the urban locality because so many weather stations are located in urban areas or other places subjected to local human activity that the urban effect leaks into the records of the global mean temperature and corrupts it. Hence the case mounted by hard-core sceptics that there has probably been next to no warming at all in a hundred years or more.

Read all about it in Jo Nova’s column today.

The biggest changes in temperature (“divergence” in dark red brown Fig 6) occurred where the most people lived (blue dots). In the 60 years to 2010 China was reported to have warmed by 0.79 ± 0.10 °C. However Scafetta et al calculate at most, China could have experienced a real warming of only 0.46 ± 0.13 °C.

Somehow the combined might and supercomputers at NOAA, NASA, Hadley and the Bureau of Met experts all missed this.

It’s another third of a degree gone from the Glorious CO2 Narrative. Just like that.

The research duo looked at the minima, the maxima, the seasonal and monthly patterns, and in pretty much every case, the warmth follows the same pattern we’d expect if it was caused by human industry. The minimums rose more than the maximums. The biggest warming effect comes in the coolest part of the day and in the coolest half of the year – and it’s a toss up whether China has even warmed at all since 1940. The nights are hotter, but the days are colder than they used to be — inasmuch as anyone has any idea at all what the temperature would really have been.

Bonus. Richard Feynman on how to learn stuff. Hint, explain it to someone else in the simplest possible terms. More explanation of Feynman’s learning methods.

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26 Responses to Lets hear it for the urban heat island effect

  1. stackja

    anyone has any idea at all what the temperature would really have been.

    No!

  2. All we can do is sit it out and wait for the cold.

  3. Phill

    I always wondered how an important discipline like climate science could become so dumbed down, so devoid of critical thinking, with core doctrines and predictions that are so clearly divorced from reality, yet retain a vast influence on public policy. Steve, your own posts regarding Say’s law indicate the economic sciences are in a similar rut.

    Bottom line. Leftists and globalists (tautology?) push post-truth bullshit, with no concern about how obvious their lies are.

  4. I always wondered how an important discipline like climate science could become so dumbed down…

    Is it truly a science?

  5. JohnL

    I always wondered how an important discipline like climate science could become so dumbed down, so devoid of critical thinking, with core doctrines and predictions that are so clearly divorced from reality, yet retain a vast influence on public policy.

    Perhaps this how:

    According to veteran psychiatrist Dr Lyle Rossiter, leftists thrive on strikingly irrational beliefs and emotions.
    “A political leader who understands human nature will not ignore individual differences in talent, drive, personal appeal and work ethic, and then try to impose economic and social equality on the population – as liberals do”.
    “And a legislator who understands human nature will not create an environment of rules which over-regulates and over-taxes the nation’s citizens, corrupts their character and reduces them to wards of the state – as liberals do.”

    Dr Rossiter says the liberal agenda preys on weakness and feelings of inferiority in the population by:
    -Creating and reinforcing perceptions of victimization.
    -Satisfying infantile claims to entitlement, indulgence and compensation.
    -Augmenting primitive feelings of envy.
    -Rejecting the sovereignty of the individual, subordinating him to the will of the government.

    “The roots of liberalism – and its associated madness – can be clearly identified by understanding how children develop from infancy to adulthood and how distorted development produces the irrational beliefs of the liberal mind,” he says.
    “When the modern liberal mind whines about imaginary victims, rages against imaginary villains and seeks above all else to run the lives of persons competent to run their own lives, the neurosis of the liberal mind becomes painfully obvious.

  6. notafan

    According to veteran psychiatrist Dr Lyle Rossiter, leftists thrive on strikingly irrational beliefs and emotion

    Like declaring oneself a petrol head and driving your ‘high performance’ car to car shows all over the country , regularly travelling overseas while at the same time being a committed greenie?

  7. hzhousewife

    Good link, ArthurB, thanks.

  8. I_am_not_a_robot

    A supposed global average surface temperature record back to 1880 (GISTEMP) let alone 1845 (HADCRUT) is risible.
    Firstly 70% of the Planet is ocean where there is next-to-no reliable data even now, then there is little or no reliable data from entire land areas of Africa, Asia, Australia, South America, Antarctica, most of North Canada until at least the past fifty or so years.
    When temperature monitoring was started, apart from local major cities, it was usually at growing and increasingly busy airports.
    The UHIE can been seen at the Tokyo-Yokohama megalopolis compared with the nearby coastal fishing port of Katsuura.
    Added to that is the propensity of CC™ practitioners to do constant post-hoc analyses and ‘adjustment’ of data to fit their models much like Terry Pratchett’s ‘retrophrenologists’ would clout their subjects on the head with a hammer to produce the bumps the personality theory predicted.
    Even when appropriately ‘adjusted’ the surface trend can’t keep up with the models.

  9. I_am_not_a_robot

    Bloody hell, I meant at most the past fifty or so years.

  10. The research duo looked at the minima, the maxima, the seasonal and monthly patterns, and in pretty much every case, the warmth follows the same pattern we’d expect if it was caused by human industry. The minimums rose more than the maximums. The biggest warming effect comes in the coolest part of the day and in the coolest half of the year – and it’s a toss up whether China has even warmed at all since 1940. The nights are hotter, but the days are colder than they used to be — inasmuch as anyone has any idea at all what the temperature would really have been.

    Like I’ve said here and elsewhere on numerous occasions, the Greenhouse Effect (GHE) causes the diurnal range to narrow. That is, Tmax decreases and Tmin increases.
    One doesn’t need to be a climate scientist (whatever that is) to understand this. One needs to observe that which is available.
    Compare any dry location on Earth with a wet location along the same/similar latitude, you’ll find daily maximums higher and daily minimums lower at the dry location despite receiving the same sunshine at the top of atmosphere.

    Water is the more powerful greenhouse agent. CO2 is irrelevant to temperature on a water planet.
    Climate sensitivity to a doubling of CO2 in the atmosphere is PRECISELY ZERO.
    We could burn all the fossil fuels we want, increase the level of CO2 in the atmosphere from 400ppm to (say) 2000ppm and all we would cause would be more greenery and healthier plants with ZERO CHANGE TO TEMPERATURE.
    Sceptics who promote nonsense such as climate sensitivity to CO2 is one half or one third of IPCC claims, are just prolonging the debate that is based on fraud and false science.

  11. RobK

     ZERO CHANGE TO TEMPERATURE.
    The greening would help to moderate temperature fluctuations, so the effect wouldn’t be zero, it would be beneficial.

  12. Fat Tony

    bemused
    #3114525, posted on July 24, 2019 at 10:43 am
    All we can do is sit it out and wait for the cold.

    While they systematically destroy the industrial capacity of the West – so when the cold does come, the West will not be able to do too much.
    Result = many deaths (feature, not bug)

  13. Sceptics who promote nonsense such as climate sensitivity to CO2 is one half or one third of IPCC claims, are just prolonging the debate that is based on fraud and false science.

    +∞

    Yup. Tis time we called the pile of crap for what it is.

  14. Chris M

    Hey Rafe, I have a question about wind turbines. I’ve driven past a couple of turbine clusters (they’re not farms) in the country recently and noticed something odd.

    With fifteen or twenty of these together in the cluster in low wind conditions yet the operation is not at all uniform. Quite apart from them facing random directions there were typically three or four turning at a slow but consistent speed while all the others were stationary. Why is that? Should they not be somewhat similar being exposed to the same wind conditions? And the rotational similarity in very low wind made me wonder if they are motor driven. Are they cranking them electrically hoping to catch a breeze?

  15. Aynsley Kellow

    Feynman’s learning technique was stated earlier by Lord Rutherford, who put it that if the scientist in the laboratory can’t explain to the cleaning lady what he’s doing, he doesn’t know what he’s doing. (They were gendered times!)
    Reminds me of when Theodore Lowi first visited Australia on a Gordon Fellowship at Deakin. He went to ANU and Sydney on a driving tour. He came back saying that they didn’t do anywhere near enough teaching at ANU.
    Of course, the ANU was supposed to be a place where academics would go for three year fellowships to do research, and then return to their universities, but the first cohort saw the potential and changed the rules to allow tenure.
    Hence the joke: Q: Why do they object to teaching on a Wednesday at the ANU? A: It interferes with both weekends.

  16. Feynman’s learning technique was stated earlier by Lord Rutherford, who put it that if the scientist in the laboratory can’t explain to the cleaning lady what he’s doing, he doesn’t know what he’s doing. (They were gendered times!)

    Trump follows Lord Rutherford’s words precisely. Watch this video (from 2015): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_aFo_BV-UzI

  17. Boambee John

    Baa Humbug

    Did you comment about moisture in the air at donaitkin.com a few days ago?

  18. RobK

    ChrisM,
    Hey Rafe, I have a question about wind turbines. I’ve driven past a couple of turbine clusters
    There are many different arrangements, but generally the turbines have some sensing of direction and velocity locally (each machine) and some centrally controlled( like grid conditions). Slewing the machines is slow, as is starting rotation. There are set points for minimum slew start, start speed etc. each machine is often semi autonomous. They are parked up in low wind conditions (or very high wind)or curtailed conditions . They maybe parked up for servicing. They need the grid to slew in low wind. Many use grid power to start more quickly . Large machines are for harnessing regional winds, light variable breezes have not got enough power to be worth chasing. In light breezes(at turbine heights) turbines maybe turning but not generating power to feed the grid. You cant easily tell by looking at them. If you are close to them and know the particular machine type, you can often tell from the noise if they are outputting. Wind power is a cubed function of wind speed. Most machines are designed to operate between about 5-60 kph, the low end speed has bugger all power.
    I hope that helps.

  19. When we construct buildings, one of the criteria to be considered is the runoff of stormwater as the building interferes with the the stormwater pathway that existed before. However we do nothing about the heat runoff from the interior of the building caused by internal cooling from the air conditioning which is mandatory for all larger commercial and office buildings. One building does not a heatwave make, but many of them gathered in urban expanses do. If we then measure the temperature outside in a city, then it follows that this effect is man made as this is what will give exactly that pattern. Cool gets cooler and warm gets warmer. What more can I say?

  20. Boambee John
    #3114836, posted on July 24, 2019 at 8:16 pm

    Baa Humbug

    Did you comment about moisture in the air at donaitkin.com a few days ago?

    No mate, at least I don’t think so.

  21. NuThink

    Watching the French News in English this morning concerning the hot conditions in a few European countries they mentioned/discussed the heat island effect with the asphalt etc getting heated during the day time and releasing heat at night. Our ABC in their news forgot to mention the Heat Island effect.

    Also of interest is the Foehn wind – there are very many reference to it on Google.
    Just one of the many explanations of the Foehn Wind conditions.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foehn_wind

    Then there is the hot wind which comes across from the Sahara which is not too far away from Europe.
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/0/uk-weather-european-heatwave-brought-sahara-bubble-pictures/2000-mile-wide-plume-hot-air-blown-africa-unusually-strong-jetstream/

    But let us blame CO2 in unison.

    If science is so good on chaotic systems, how about predicting the Lottery results.
    In fact in Pennsylvania the results of the numbers game were helped by weighting the balls, just like temperature can be weighted. The lottery fiddle was known as the Triple Six Fix.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1980_Pennsylvania_Lottery_scandal

  22. hzhousewife

    Energy in the form of heat is most difficult to manage – worse than herding cats.

  23. Rafe Champion

    Thanks Rob, ,I didn’t have anything to offer there, just the impression from somewhere that if you see one turning moving while the others are not, it is being driven by power from the grid, can’t recall if there was a explanation, maybe to keep the moving parts lubricated.

    Aynsley, I like the Rutherford story, I have one about the physicist Lawrence Bragg that comes from Francis Crick who worked in his lab for a while. Bragg loved gardening and when he moved to London his place had no garden so he advertised to take on casual work. He presented himself to a fashionable lady as Willie and spent an afternoon every week in the garden. One day the lady entertained a friend for tea. She looked out the window and said “What is Sir Lawrence Bragg doing in your back yard?”

    This is a summary of some key points in the book by Crick where the Bragg story came from. Very important ideas there!!

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