TAFKAS is not a climate scientist, but

Disclosure.  TAFKAS accepts that the climate changing.  It has been changing for thousands of years.  That does not mean that TAFKAS believes that Australia should commit economic suicide so that a (relative) handful of people can fly on private jets and get entry to the “special” meetings and cocktail parties.  Travel at the expense of others that is.

But some of the catastrophic predictions, peee leeeze.  Here is something from Rolling Stone Magazine.  Yeah ok.  It is Rolling Stone magazine, but it sources an IPCC report:

On our current path, with warming of more than 3 degrees Celsius by the end of the century, the world faces nearly certain and widespread freshwater shortages, permanent vegetation loss, uncontrollable wildfires, permafrost thawing, and declines in crop yields to the point that famine and instability could be pervasive especially in some parts of the tropics. At levels of warming barely above the present day, those effects may still be felt, but at vastly reduced odds.

TAFKAS is not a scientist but why, if the planet is warming, will there be “widespread freshwater shortages” and “permanent vegetation loss”.

Perhaps there may be shortages and losses in some areas.  Perhaps.  But would there be a net global reduction in freshwater?  Where is it going to go?  And would not the heat and carbon lead to greater rather than lesser vegetation?

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28 Responses to TAFKAS is not a climate scientist, but

  1. Entrepreneur

    The tropics don’t seem to be short of water …

  2. Percy Popinjay

    On our current path, with warming of more than 3 degrees Celsius by the end of the century, the world faces nearly certain and widespread freshwater shortages, permanent vegetation loss, uncontrollable wildfires, permafrost thawing, and declines in crop yields to the point that famine and instability could be pervasive especially in some parts of the tropics

    This is bullshit, man. Reminds me of that notorious wrongologist Paul Ehrlich (among others).

  3. Environmental concerns.

    The big concerns for Australians are drought and the Great Barrier Ref. CAGW will destroy the Reef and make droughts worse.
    The big concern for South Americans is the Amazon forest. CAGW will destroy the Amazon forest.
    The big concern for many Africans is drought and famine. CAGW will make droughts and famine worse.
    The big concern for Americans is tornadoes. CAGW will make tornadoes worse.
    The big concerns for South Asians are water from glaciers running out and low lying coastal areas. CAGW will destroy glaciers and flood low lying coasts with rising seas.
    The gig concern for Europeans is….oh shit…Europeans don’t have too many concerns with extreme weather. Ummm….ummmm…..oh yeah, Europeans love polar bears. CAGW will wipe out polar bears, won’t somebody please think about the cute polar bears?

    Step right up, step right up. Name your environmental concern. CAGW will make it worse. 97% of scientists wearing white lab coats say so, and if you don’t believe us…DENIER!!!

  4. classical_hero

    The data is tampered with.

  5. Cynic of Ayr

    I have emboldened the “get out of jail free” words. If one is paying attention, one notes that ALL papers of such doomsday scenarios, also possess a liberal sprinkling of these words. May, might, perhaps, could, etc.
    Actually, this is a rather mild prediction, as only some parts of the tropics are affected. Apparently the rest of the world continues as normal. As well, it will require “more than” 3 degrees to bring this about. It says so right there! What the hell does “more than 3 degrees” mean? Say 20 degrees? Do these people even read what they write?

    On our current path, with warming of more than 3 degrees Celsius by the end of the century, the world faces nearly certain and widespread freshwater shortages, permanent vegetation loss, uncontrollable wildfires, permafrost thawing, and declines in crop yields to the point that famine and instability could be pervasive especially in some parts of the tropics. At levels of warming barely above the present day, those effects may still be felt, but at vastly reduced odds.

  6. Karabar

    The “warming planet” rubbish is a furphy.
    After a fifty year career of maintenance engineering, I have learned the first thing to question is your instruments, and the next thing is the quality of your data.
    There are many reasons that the data, even before the BOM, the NOAA, and the IPCC massage it, torture it, and turn it inside out. Here are ten reasons that the information used to create this mythical warming is false:
    1. Heat trapping surfaces: Asphalt and cement not only heat up much faster than natural habitat during the day, those materials hold the heat longer, increasing temperatures at weather stations situated near buildings and near asphalt. More asphalt, more warming, more record temperatures.
    2. Loss of Vegetation: During the summer the temperature of a dry dirt road can be 60°F higher at noon, than ground shaded by trees. That’s why our pets instinctively seek the shade. Plants also bring moisture from below the ground that cools the air by evaporative cooling. Increasing deforestation or lost vegetation due to landscape changes cause regional warming trends.
    3. Transport of heat: Natural climate oscillations alter air and ocean circulation patterns that can drive more heat from the tropics towards the poles. Europe’s recent heat wave was largely caused by air heated over the baking Sahara Desert and then driven into Europe. Similarly, the latest research finds variations in Arctic sea ice has been dominated by transport of warm Atlantic water heated in the tropics and transported northward via the Gulf Stream.
    4. Less cloud cover: Recent research suggests a trend of less cloud cover resulted in increased solar heating of land and oceans. The added solar energy normally reflected by clouds was 2 times greater than what’s believed to be added by increasing carbon dioxide. Two decades of declining cloud cover was similarly shown to cause Greenland’s rapid ice melt between 1995 and 2012.
    5. Less Cooling: Windy conditions cool the oceans. The unusually warm ocean conditions that occurred in the northwestern Pacific Ocean, known as the Blob, were caused by decreased winds that reduced normal cooling.
    6. Suppressed Convection: Surface temperatures are cooled by rising convection currents that carry away the heat. Roll up the windows of your car and immediately the temperature rises simply because convection is prevented. Suppressed convection is the reason temperatures are warmer inside agricultural greenhouses. Weather-people predict a heat wave when they see a looming dome of high pressure that will suppress cooling convection.
    7. Drier conditions: It takes 5 times more energy to heat water 1 degree than it does to heat sand. Furthermore, it takes 500 times more energy to evaporate water than it does to raise water one degree. Without evaporation to consume the heat, most extreme temperature events are associated with dry conditions. The trend in lost wetlands increases temperatures.
    8. Ventilating stored heat: Oceanographers from Harvard and MIT have suggested heat stored in the deep oceans thousands of years ago, when temperatures were warmer than today, is still ventilating. Likewise, El Niños ventilate previously stored heat. Similarly, Arctic temperatures rose after a change in wind direction blew thick insulating ice out of the Arctic allowing subsurface heat to ventilate.
    9. Descending winds: For every 1000 feet of elevation that an air mass descends, its temperature rises over 5°F. California’s hot Santa Anna and Diablo winds can raise downslope temperatures 25°F in a matter of minutes. Descending air in a high-pressure dome suppresses convection causing heat waves. Despite temperatures far below freezing, bouts of descending winds from Antarctic’s peaks rapidly heat the ice and generate melt ponds.
    10. Misleading Averaging: The average temperature is calculated by adding the maximum and minimum daily temperatures and dividing by 2. Due to heat trapping surfaces, higher minimum temperatures cause the average temperature to rise even when maximum temperatures have not increased or sometimes cooled.
    There is no such thing as an “annual average global temperature”. That would be mathematically and thermodynamically impossible to determine. More than 70% of the Earth’s surface. Not many weather stations out there. Most of the data collected is augmented by the urban heat island effect, especially airports.

  7. roger

    Not that I think their projections of warming are worth anything, but the most hostile place on Earth is Antarctica. You’d think that a couple of degrees warming would significantly enhance life on Earth, as it is cold weather, rather than warm one, which living organisms seem find hard to handle.

  8. I_am_not_a_robot

    On our current path, with warming of more than 3 degrees Celsius by the end of the century …
    I wouldn’t worry too much TAFKAS, at the current rate of warming according to the only thoroughly reliable data set +3C would be reached around the year 2250, by the end of the century at current rate it would be about +1C, but that is just forecasting based the current time-series rate, as the IPCC once observed:

    … In sum, a strategy must recognize what is possible. In climate research and modelling, we should recognize that we are dealing with a coupled non-linear chaotic system, and therefore that the long-term prediction of future climate states is not possible … Third Assessment Report (2001).

    By now it’s becoming ever clearer that the IPCC models assume far too much warming and that it’s not principally about climate anyway.

  9. Rex Mango

    Hotter the world gets, the more seawater evaporates, which means more rain and more freshwater.

  10. permafrost thawing,

    Oh No’s. Millions of acres of unarable land might sustain food crops if it warms a little.

  11. Tim Neilson

    I can’t track down the quote, but I seem to recall CS Lewis writing that every society is obsessed by problems that it doesn’t really have. One of his examples was late Victorian era British middle class terror of sexual licentiousness. Modern Australia would be an absolute case study for his proposition – there’s racism, various “phobias”, microagressions, gendered pronouns … and of course, in the teeth of all the actual evidence, climate change.

  12. JC

    Weren’t we told there would be lots more instense storms with gerbiling. Doesn’t that mean more fresh water coming down from the heavens.

    I get it.. it’s like everything else with gerbil warming. There will both lots more water and quite a bit less.

  13. Biota

    Karabar
    #3127399, posted on August 9, 2019 at 4:46 pm

    Good list and uncannily similar to that by Jim Steele
    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/08/08/ten-causes-of-warming-the-laypersons-checklist/

  14. Bruce of Newcastle

    Rolling Stone mag is printing fantasy fiction nowadays eh?
    None of that stuff is supported by the real world data.
    The planet is getting greener, growing areas have been expanding and many crops, like maize, like warmer weather.

    Pity that there’s unlikely to be any warming. Cooling is much more likely due to where we’re at in the 210 year solar cycle and the 60 year ocean cycle. Both are at peak now with down & down the next destination.

  15. Mark M

    2007: & nearly half a century before Al Gore’s “Inconvenient Truth,” this film was made …

    1958, The Unchained Goddess: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0lgzz-L7GFg

    “But what does it reveal?

    That our scientists have known for over two generations about this danger, but our politicians and citizenry have chosen to ignore the dangerous implications of this fact until it really is too late to avoid the preventable consequences.”

    Note from the future: Its ok –

    NASA – Carbon Dioxide Fertilization Greening Earth, Study Finds

    http://www.nasa.gov/feature/goddard/2016/carbon-dioxide-fertilization-greening-earth

  16. cohenite

    The key is the climate changing in a way which does not conform to natural parameters. Since about 1850 the GAT (global average temperature), the measure of alarmism, which in itself is meaningless for reasons I won’t go into now, has increased by about 1C, about half of that in the period 1976 – 1978 due to the Great Pacific Climate Shift. This 1C increase is remarkably benign and completely inconsistent with alarmism and the theory of how CO2 causes temperature increase.

    Now compare that with Heinrich and Dansgaard–Oeschger Events which can cause GAT to decrease or increase respectively by up to 15C in 50 years as occurred with the Younger Dryas about 11000 years ago.

    So there is no evidence consistent with alarmism.

  17. Beachcomber

    The CO2 fertilisation effect is well known, even the CSIRO has been unable to deny it. The small increases in atmospheric CO2 that have been measured in Hawaii are not any sort of problem, they are actually desirable.

    An abundance of this sort information is readily available and understood by anyone with even a modicum of relevant scientific knowledge. It just that it doesn’t matter to the leftist establishment and their media. It will never be acknowledged or revealed by the ABC-TASS media. Global warming catastrophism is a political cult used to enforce centralized planning and control of the economy and people’s lives.

  18. Tel

    Perhaps there may be shortages and losses in some areas. Perhaps. But would there be a net global reduction in freshwater? Where is it going to go?

    The water will go into the ocean as an “environmental flow” demanded by some unelected agency staffed by unidentifiable people who seem to have unfathomable powers.

    By the way … why do you ask?

  19. Beachcomber

    The water will go into the ocean as an “environmental flow” demanded by some unelected agency staffed by unidentifiable people who seem to have unfathomable powers.

    The economic vandalism and environmental stupidity of the Murray-Darling Basin plan are breathtaking. But it has just been fully endorsed and supported by all of the governing establishment. The idiocy will continue unabated.

  20. Fat Tony

    Beachcomber
    #3127529, posted on August 9, 2019 at 7:49 pm
    The water will go into the ocean as an “environmental flow” demanded by some unelected agency staffed by unidentifiable people who seem to have unfathomable powers.

    The economic vandalism and environmental stupidity of the Murray-Darling Basin plan are breathtaking. But it has just been fully endorsed and supported by all of the governing establishment. The idiocy will continue unabated.

    There can only be one outcome for this country – rooted.
    The Chinese will then ensure it reaches its full agricultural and mining potential.

  21. roger

    Right now there is a major AFL game played while it is literally snowing.
    Exactly like Flannery, the Gaia prophet, predicted… not.

  22. Fair shake of the Sauce bottle

    I recall someone posting several weeks back that MSM will go full climate retard in September looking fwd to the same 10 points being copied and pasted across the globe. Here’s hoping rising footy fever drowns out the noise.

  23. Kneel

    “Rising sea levels, desertification and shrinking freshwater supplies will create up to 50 million environmental refugees by the end of the decade, experts warn today. ” – The Guardian, October 12, 2005 – https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2005/oct/12/naturaldisasters.climatechange1

    Total climate refugees to date, globally: 0

    It’s a damn good thing we spent all that time, effort and money and reduced GHG concentrations in the atmosphere, otherwise, as the IPCC experts said, there would have been 10 million a year in 2010 and increasing amounts after that – say, up to 2019 or so at least!
    Thanks for all the climate change action guys – clearly it worked, and worked well. Can we stop now, please?

  24. Elderly White Man From Skipton

    As a matter of fact, sourcing water is already quite an issue in much of Africa, the ME, Indonesia, parts of China and quite a few other places – such as the Pacific.

  25. cohenite

    Karabar

    #3127399, posted on August 9, 2019 at 4:46 pm

    Yep; good post.

  26. Tel

    Back before evil white men invented SUV’s the Sahara Desert had a lot more water … as a matter of fact it was quite damp … for a desert. Now those victim Africans can’t find water in the desert like they used to do. I can’t believe Trump is so heartless … has he no empathy?

    Why did Trump put so much dry sand in the desert? What makes him behave that way?

  27. Mick NQ

    Seems to me if the world was warmer it would be more humid, thus more rain. How else were the rainforests that be came coal in Central Queensland, the Appalachians, Scotland, Mongolia and Siberia formed?

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