If they can bring on a recession to sink Donald Trump they will

Let me start with this sage piece of advice from Henry in the previous post:

No sensible purpose is served by the facile criticism of the administration that increasingly pervades the Australian media, and the equally facile ­questioning of the alliance that ­invariably accompanies it. For these issues are deadly serious; unless they are treated seriously, the consequences will be deadly too.

And then there’s this from Instapundit to bear in mind.

ADHERING TO LENIN’S “THE WORSE, THE BETTER” DICTUM: Recession Warnings Music to the Ears of Democrats. 

66Posted at 2:13 pm by Stephen Green

And today from the front page of The Australian: Global recession warnings as sharemarkets sink.

Which follows on this from The Economist: Markets in an Age of Anxiety, which begins:

Financial markets are often accused of complacency. However, the mood just now is not complacency but anxiety. And it is deepening by the day. In Germany interest rates are negative all the way from overnight deposits to 30-year bonds. In Switzerland negative yields extend right up to 50-year bonds. In America, meanwhile, interest rates on ten-year bonds are lower than on three-month bills—a harbinger of recession. Angst is evident elsewhere, too. The safe-haven dollar is up against many other currencies. Gold is at a six-year high. Copper prices, a proxy for industrial health, are down sharply. Despite Iran’s seizure of oil tankers in the Gulf, oil prices have sunk to below $60 a barrel. Plenty of people fear that these strange signals portend a global recession. Yet a recession is so far a fear, not a reality. The true problem is that firms and markets are struggling to get to grips with uncertainty. And that is the result of the trade war between America and China.

Artificially low interest rates are as sure a way to cause an economy to stall as I can think of. That along with vast oceans of unproductive public spending.

JUST FOUND THIS TO ADD TO THE ABOVE: Drive-By Media Hell-Bent on Talking Us Into a Recession. It’s from Rush Limbaugh.

MEANWHILE: Starts about 15 minutes in.

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60 Responses to If they can bring on a recession to sink Donald Trump they will

  1. stackja

    Red China has gotten away with much because until DT seemingly no western leader resisted unfair trade by the communists.

  2. Lee

    What kind of a person or party wants their country to suffer, just because they hate their leader?
    These people are evil.
    I wouldn’t want a recession in Australia, even with a Labor government in power.

  3. Ellen

    What a great piece of pre-positioning. So, if a recession occurs, it will be possible to say ‘well, I told you beforehand that it was all a plot by the Democrats!’

    If it does eventuate, it will be more likely the result of a self-fulfilling prophecy with all side panicking; throwing blame around already is a symptom of that panic.

  4. Rossini

    Who benefits the most if Australia goes into a recession?
    Apart from public Servants!

  5. mem

    Artificially low interest rates are as sure a way to cause an economy to stall as I can think of. That along with vast oceans of unproductive public spending.

    The vast oceans of unproductive spending would have to include the trillions of dollars spent on the renewables industry. Where is the return on investment ? Where are the productivity gains?

  6. Iampeter

    If they can bring on a recession to sink Donald Trump they will

    So let me get this straight, when Trump’s interfering in the market like any leftist democrat would, he is a great leader and savior of Western Civilization, but when a recession hits it’s the fault of the mysterious “they?”

    Well, this was entirely predictable.

  7. John Constantine

    British farmers are the turkeys voting for Christmas, declare their abc, parroting british remainer media

    Brexiters must be crushed at any cost.

    The chicoms are targetting American agriculture for economic carpet bombing to overthrow Trump.

    The democrats colluding with the chicoms?.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-08-15/wool-growers-suffer-as-crashing-prices-drought-bite/11416230

    80 % of australian wool goes to China, The price is now down 24 per cent since its February peak.

    The word from the Australian wool trade to Australian woolgrowers is to pray for the murder of Trump and a quick and total victory for the chicoms. So the price of wool stops falling.

    The total victory of the chicoms as sole buyer of australian wool is genocide for the industry, but it will take a few years until OBOR tightens the noose.

    Comrades

  8. Tator

    Rossini,
    try Insolvency firms due to an increase in business collapses
    Cement manufacturers because nearly every recession is an excuse for governments to push forward “stimulating ” infrastructure projects
    There are a few others but they slip my mind at the moment

  9. 1735099

    If there is a recession, there will be two events responsible –
    1. Trump’s trade war with China
    2. Brexit
    Both are the result of fear and ignorance, harnessed for political convenience.
    History has demonstrated that fear drives disaster…
    Vietnam, Iraq, etc etc…..

  10. flyingduk

    If they can bring on a recession to sink Donald Trump they will

    A recession is desperately needed to heal the economy: Governmental delaying of this is the problem.

  11. candy

    Trump’s rallies are great. I really like the way he tells his supporters everything that’s going on, what he thinks about current situations in the world, some humour, what his plans are. His supporters know he values them by keeping them updated, and the rallies are for them.

  12. What any Democrat contender would give to get that sort of crowd. What any democrat contender would give to be able to work a crowd like that, instead of sending them to sleep.

  13. mem

    While “Wool decreased 349 AUD/100Kg or 18.74% since the beginning of 2019, according to trading on a contract for difference (CFD) that tracks the benchmark market for this commodity. Historically, Wool reached an all time high of 2101 in September of 2018 and a record low of 465 in October of 1998.” https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/wool
    Looking at wool prices over a five or ten year period provides a much more accurate account of what is happening and while prices have dropped this is due to a number of factors including the quality the yields coming from NSW which has been affected by drought. Any downturn in consumption from China will of course impact as it is the largest importer but not the only country that can have an impact especially for fine wools eg Italy,France, Britain and Thailand.

  14. Sean

    Isn’t Trump angry about rates being too high?

  15. a happy little debunker

    Currency manipulation, Tariffs on imports, government subsidies for exports, spying on all echelons of government and private business in the USA (& Australia).

    ‘Trump’s trade war’ began long before Trump was elected and all the primary salvos were being fired by the Chinese.
    The same Chinese that were CC’d all of Hillary’s emails before, during and after her stint as Secretary of State.
    The same Chinese that take ‘offence’ that their ‘communications platform’s’ are denied access to the workings of the USA.

    Meanwhile their erstwhile allies in the lame stream media, desperate now that the Mueller narrative failed and the White supremacist narrative is failing are talking up fiscal discord in order to sow the seeds of Trump’s undoing.

    Considering the potential contenders – I rate them Buckley’s and None of displacing the Orange Man in 2020.

  16. Bruce

    This dovetails nicely with Freydenberg and Morrison warming up to a “war on cash”, basically making it an offence to pay more than $10,000 cash in a transaction.

    Crime, drugs, blah, blah, f—ing blah. Last time I had enough cash to look at, it had something on the notes about being LEGAL TENDER in the Commonwealth end Territories, etc. So, these clowns want to make cash “conditionally / situationally legal”? Barter and trade will be next on the assault list. I’ll bet the pinkos are laughing their heads off at these slugs for doing their dirty work for them, again.

    Sounds like the ATO is going for a totally-accountable, cashless society. To whose advantage? Theirs, naturally.

    There is evil afoot.

  17. Another Ian

    “Stunning Day of Economic Gaslighting – Despite All Positive Data, Corporate Media Cheering For Recession…”

    https://theconservativetreehouse.com/2019/08/14/stunning-day-of-economic-gaslighting-despite-all-positive-data-corporate-media-cheering-for-recession/

    And

    “Nails It – Economic Analyst El-Erian: The Era of “De-Globalization” is Here…”

    https://theconservativetreehouse.com/2019/08/15/nails-it-economic-analyst-el-erian-the-era-of-de-globalization-is-here/#more-168393

  18. cohenite

    Trump is the greatest POTUS since WW11 and Brexit is a magnificent example of democratic will. Only a complete bastard and leftwing misanthrope would deny that.

  19. JC

    He’s made mistakes, Cronkite you idiot. Two big ones. Really big.
    1. He picked a trade war fight based on the wrong premise – that reducing the trade deficit would cause an uptick in economic activity. Smoot Hawley should have told him the opposite is the case.

    2. He fucked up what is his most important appointment. He stuck Powell in the fair chair and if he skims off a recession he’ll be very lucky. If he doesn’t, we’re looking forward to President Pocahontas.

  20. Dr Fred Lenin

    Bruce. Meanwhile the government is borrowing money from China , for which of course they are paying minimal interest? Can you imagine a hard woring Chinese who scrimped and saved to have savings lending the money to rich spoiled people who dont encourage saving . Yeah right !

  21. JC

    Fed

    What loans has the Government taken from China? Can you point to any? Thanks.

  22. Lee

    If there is a recession, there will be two events responsible –
    1. Trump’s trade war with China
    2. Brexit
    Both are the result of fear and ignorance …

    “Fear” is right – fear of unelected officials in Brussels even being able to overrule the British government, and British courts. The EU has the power to do so, and has used it.

    It’s not all about trade with Brexit.

    Look up Pat Condell on YouTube.

  23. John Bayley

    Bruce @ 3:01 pm:

    Sounds like the ATO is going for a totally-accountable, cashless society. To whose advantage? Theirs, naturally.

    Why be surprised?

    Cash ‘needs to be banned’ in order to ‘allow for proper transmission of monetary policy below the zero bound’ – according to various ‘guru’ economists, some of whom practice their voodoo at the IMF and such like.

    Translation: ‘Once we impose deeply negative interest rates, we need to be able to stop people from taking cash out of their bank accounts and hiding it under the bed!’

    I have said before that this is also what is to some extent driving the renewed rally in crypto-currencies: They are one of the few avenues left to protect yourself from the .gov thieves.

  24. J.H.

    JC…. Victorian Premier borrowed Belt and Road money from China for infrastructure projects.

  25. Sean

    China can play the long game in reality.

    Send the US into recession and get a new leader to deal with. It gives them leverage in the negotiations.

  26. Makka

    Al-Arian explains the US Bond market. Trump’s policies may be shyte for Wall St but great for the US Consumer. Assuming he’s right then Australia will in real trouble as globalisation is wound back ;

  27. The Pugilist

    1. He picked a trade war fight based on the wrong premise – that reducing the trade deficit would cause an uptick in economic activity.

    JC, I think it is more of a strategic play. He’s banking on damaging the CCP more than the US consumer (and producers from Chinese retaliation)

  28. The Pugilist

    JC…. Victorian Premier borrowed Belt and Road money from China for infrastructure projects.

    J.H. it is more about giving Vic companies and universities a leg up over other states. The Chinese are turning their attention to other states and using Australian businesses to lobby their state and federal governments to sign up to belt and road. They don’t need us to borrow money from them. They dangle the carrot of technical.market access for our agricultural and food producers.
    Agribusiness Australia (industry association) held an event in Adelaide on the ‘commercial significance’ of belt and road. They mentioned how other countries, like kazakhstan, had an FTA with China and gotport protocols approved almost immediately. Meanwhile, many Australian products are denied that technical market access four years after we signed our FTA with them.

  29. The Pugilist

    *got import protocols

  30. Chris M

    prices have dropped this is due to a number of factors including the quality the yields coming from NSW which has been affected by drought.

    I understand normally wool quality improves in tougher conditions? Which is why NZ wool is not as fine and nice for example. Quantity is another matter.

    More than 12 months till the US election = 12+ months of ABC talking recession daily. The correct response seems to drastically cut their income to help stave off the recession they are demanding. As a bonus this should help defer global warming according their own logic.

  31. I understand normally wool quality improves in tougher conditions?

    I knew a farmer (if that was the right term for him) who bred Merinos and sold every fleece he produced to an Italian company that made fine suits. All of his sheep lived in an environmentally controlled ‘barn’, fed premium feed and were kept out of the elements entirely. The smallest amount of impurities would result in a reduction of his wool quality assessment. The latter meant a big loss in dollars.

  32. RCon

    Artificially low interest rates are as sure a way to cause an economy to stall as I can think of. That along with vast oceans of unproductive public spending.

    I seem to recall you first argued the Fed was attempting to destroy Trump by raising rates.

    Your take on anything US politics these days is always so amusingly partisan.

  33. Lee

    Your take on anything US politics these days is always so amusingly partisan.

    In so far as U.S. politics are concerned, only PDT’s supporters are apparently “partisan.”
    Of course, the MSM and his enemies in the U.S. are completely unbiased.

  34. Mark A

    Sean
    #3133227, posted on August 16, 2019 at 4:33 pm

    China can play the long game in reality.

    Send the US into recession

    Brilliant long game-plan that is.
    A broke US won’t buy any cheap chinese goods.

  35. RCon

    In so far as U.S. politics are concerned, only PDT’s supporters are apparently “partisan.”
    Of course, the MSM and his enemies in the U.S. are completely unbiased.

    I make no comment on the rest of the media, however SK initially bitched about Feds raising rates to try and destroy Trump.

    I do understand SK came around after a few of us on here pointed out that *directly* contradicted his earlier position, but hey. It’s Friday night, and I can laugh at people being partisan.

  36. Crossie

    Lee
    #3133033, posted on August 16, 2019 at 12:03 pm
    What kind of a person or party wants their country to suffer, just because they hate their leader?
    These people are evil.
    I wouldn’t want a recession in Australia, even with a Labor government in power.

    The kind who are rich enough to think that any downturn won’t affect them. The upper classes are really classless.

  37. Tel

    On the Fed rates question … this has been decently steady for the past 8 years … so the Fed have balanced the supply of USD pretty darn well in the scheme of things. They are nuancing it … I thought they would stack this turbo-charged clown car long ago, but Yellen did the business. Grandma drove the bus … there I said it.

    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PPIACO

    On the economic boom question … under President Hillary the US would surely be deep in recession by now, it was heading that way. Trump saved their backsides. Conventional economists were predicting disaster the moment Trump reached for tariffs and although there hasn’t been exactly a boom, nor has there been the crash they predicted, so the economy is adaptable. Trump dropped corporate taxes remember so actually he already compensated for any problem the tariff might cause and the USA is the most internally diverse economy in the world. Australia couldn’t get away with stuff like that, but Trump already has gotten away with it.

    On the next recession question … if it’s a WORLDWIDE recession then the EU will go down harder than anyone. The money trying to escape will be epic, Greece is stoney bankrupt, Italy might start printing currency (who knows what), Germany will be desperate to hold it together while the UK will be running away. Gonna be a bunfight … no business wants that. We already have business that can’t even be bothered showing their websites to the EU because it’s that dang difficult to do business over there. Trump’s dirty shirt is set to look mighty nice alongside the EU shit splattered toilet.

    As for Australia, we aren’t looking good, another round of interest rate cuts, set for stagflation and revisiting the 1970’s. Australia totally lacks leadership, we will sit and drink and watch the ship go down.

    Trump will look good, because everyone else will be a whole lot worse.

  38. Crossie

    Meanwhile, many Australian products are denied that technical market access four years after we signed our FTA with them.

    Doesn’t that mean that China’s word is not worth the paper it’s printed on. Why would you rely solely on someone who acts in such bad faith? In fact China has very little or even nothing that can’t be produced elsewhere, they are more vulnerable to competitors such as India and South Korea and this should be exploited by US and Australia.

    As others have already suggested Australia needs to develop trade relations with other countries as a safety measure and a defence against Chinese predations.

  39. Crossie

    Australia totally lacks leadership, we will sit and drink and watch the ship go down.

    Sad but true. ScoMo is not the man for our times, he was simply the least objectionable of our ruling elite.

  40. Tel

    I seem to recall you first argued the Fed was attempting to destroy Trump by raising rates.

    Your take on anything US politics these days is always so amusingly partisan.

    Some people expected the Fed to jack up rates and trigger a recession … they didn’t … now some people (e.g. Peter Schiff) think the Fed will nosedive rates in a crazy stimulus attempt … they won’t. They are doing a good job keeping the rates balanced. That does not fix all the problems in the world, but it does avoid causing any extra problems.

    BTW Kates is always a bit of a hand wringer. Nice guy … a touch jittery.

  41. Paul

    “That along with vast oceans of unproductive public spending.”

    But….Diversity is our strength…..

  42. candy

    I think it true that people in Dem Party, not all, would like a recession so that they can be rid of Trump and be powerful again, be someone important . If it causes hardship to the populace, it does not affect them, because they are wealthy. That is the bottom line. A selfishness.

    In a sense it mirrors New Labor here – wealthy party people concerned with social issues like climate change, but not at all the issues that affect the day to day life of folk such as paying the rent and power bills.

    It’s a crying shame. I am sure there was once a great Labor Party, a great Democrat Party that cared about wellbeing of voters in an economic sense and their security into the future.

  43. Caveman

    Trump will see the DOW at 30k by end of this year. Talk of recession is BS , besides there’s more stupid things to do first, like I’m a peach the orange man.

  44. The Pugilist

    Crossie
    #3133387, posted on August 16, 2019 at 7:58 pm
    Meanwhile, many Australian products are denied that technical market access four years after we signed our FTA with them.

    Doesn’t that mean that China’s word is not worth the paper it’s printed on. Why would you rely solely on someone who acts in such bad faith? In fact China has very little or even nothing that can’t be produced elsewhere, they are more vulnerable to competitors such as India and South Korea and this should be exploited by US and Australia.

    As others have already suggested Australia needs to develop trade relations with other countries as a safety measure and a defence against Chinese predations.

    Totally agree Crossie. You’d ba amazed though how many companies see China as their only strategy for growth. Not only that, China are cheating the hell out of the WTO. Australia granted them ‘market economy’ status in the early 2000s when they don’t deserve that designation. That makes it very hard for us to use WTO endorsed countervailing measures/trade remedies. But we also class them as a developing country so they get a range of concessions.

  45. Tel

    But we also class them as a developing country so they get a range of concessions.

    That “developing country” designation would have to wear off when they are out there projecting a military threat across India, Asia and half the Middle East.

    Not saying China are the only ones doing that … but they are the only ones claiming special status while doing that.

  46. The Pugilist

    That “developing country” designation would have to wear off when they are out there projecting a military threat across India, Asia and half the Middle East.

    I don’t know how that status is designated. Possibly by GDP per capita. But their GDP stats are bullshit anyway.
    But this is why I have kind of switched my position and see Trump’s tariffs as being a good move. He knew that China would retaliate to avoid Xi the Pooh losing face. The Chinese imposing tariffs on American farm products hurts Chinese consumers a lot, particularly in the poorer regions. Also China needs to import a lot of animal protein because of the African Swine fever outbreak. It hits the CCP where it hurts them most – social unrest.

  47. miltonf

    Yeah heard some pr*ck on 2GB this morning trying to talk up a recession- the latest talking points have obviously been issued.

  48. Another Ian

    Didn’t take long

    “Consumer Spending Beats Expectations – Shoppers Reject Phony Media Recession Fears…”

    https://theconservativetreehouse.com/2019/08/15/consumer-spending-beats-expectations-shoppers-reject-phony-media-recession-fears/

  49. OldOzzie

    Steve,

    Further to Another Ian’s posts above, you should add the following to your article

    Politics to Support Wall Street Multinationals – Democrats Plan to Block Trump Trade Reset…

    and

    As the end statement of the above says

    The aligned interests of Wall Street, media pundits and Democrats are all contingent upon harming the U.S. economy. That is how severely ideological modern democrats are.

    The democrats are willing to destroy Main Street in order to retain power.

    There are trillions at stake.

    Sunlight is the best disinfectant.

    plus

    Jobs, Jobs, Jobs…

  50. BorisG

    Artificially low interest rates are as sure a way to cause an economy to stall as I can think of.

    Well that is exactly what trump urged the fed to do, doesn’t he ?

  51. BorisG

    I don’t come here often these days but I came specifically to see where Steve stands or what he is more passionate about: Trump or high interest rates?

    But he appears to muddy the water here by not specifically discussing trumps demand for lowering interest rates. Sorry if I missed it as the post is too long.

  52. BorisG

    And commenters here are very selective. If the economy is growing it is all due to Trump but if it slows down, it is has nothin to do with Trump. Moreover it must be a conspiracy against him. LOL.

  53. max

    Inflation created an illusory prosperity, a false wealth

    With $250 trillion of debt and $1 quadrillion in derivatives

    Ludwig von Mises:

    The boom produces impoverishment. But still more disastrous are its moral ravages. It makes people despondent and dispirited. The more optimistic they were under the illusory prosperity of the boom, the greater is their despair and their feeling of frustration. The individual is always ready to ascribe his good luck to his own efficiency and to take it as a well-deserved reward for his talent, application, and probity. But reverses of fortune he always charges to other people, and most of all to the absurdity of social and political institutions. He does not blame the authorities for having fostered the boom. He reviles them for the inevitable collapse.

    Ron Paul:

    We need to rid ourselves of the fantasy that wealth can be created by artificially raising stock prices. The only stimulus our economy needs is sensible government policies. A sound money system, low taxes, and a low regulatory burden would foster an environment where real productivity and economic growth could flourish.

    Adam Fergusson:
    inflation aggravated every evil, ruined every chance of national revival or individual success, and eventually produced precisely the conditions in which extremists of Right and Left could raise the mob against the State, set class against class, race against race, family against family, husband against wife, trade against trade, town against country. It undermined national resolution when simple want or need might have bolstered it. Partly because of its unfairly discriminatory nature, it brought out the worst in everybody — industrialist and worker, farmer and peasant, banker and shopkeeper, politician and civil servant, housewife, soldier, merchant, tradesman, miner, moneylender, pensioner, doctor, trade union leader, student, tourist -especially the tourist. It caused fear and insecurity among those who had already known too much of both. It fostered xenophobia. It promoted contempt for government and the subversion of law and order. It corrupted even where corruption had been unknown, and too often where it should have been impossible.

  54. Frank Walker from National Tiles

    Trump needs to pay down the Federal debt and he has overseen job creation, he cannot get UE rate under 3% and the LFPR is really sticky at this point.

    What they need is to be forensic in being harsh on budget requests, cut severely and seek to engage in microeconomic reform, re occupational licensing.

  55. Tel

    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GFDEGDQ188S

    Frank, the US federal debt has been largely flat under Trump, relative to GDP at least. The big increase happened during the first Obama term and the massive failed “stimulus” plan.

    Even if you prefer it in nominal terms, the growth of US federal debt under Trump has been averaging around 5% per annum (a bit lower in 2017 and a bit higher in 2018), which isn’t particularly bad compared with historical debt growth.

    As for paying back the debt, yeah well that never happens, nor will it happen under Trump.

  56. Tel

    What they need is to be forensic in being harsh on budget requests, cut severely and seek to engage in microeconomic reform, re occupational licensing.

    Most of that occupational stuff is happening at the state level.

    Trump is one of the few Presidents ever to reduce the size of the Federal Register.

    https://regulatorystudies.columbian.gwu.edu/sites/g/files/zaxdzs1866/f/downloads/GW%20Reg%20Studies%20-%20Economically%20Significant%20Final%20Rules%20Published%20by%20Presidential%20Year%20-%206.27.19.jpg

  57. Lee

    And commenters here are very selective. If the economy is growing it is all due to Trump but if it slows down, it is has nothin to do with Trump. Moreover it must be a conspiracy against him. LOL.

    I have seen the narrative spun the other way by leftists and TDS sufferers in general elsewhere:

    All upturns and any growth in the U.S. economy are as a result of policies Obama put in place, of course any negatives are entirely President Trump’s fault!

  58. mh

    Steph
    @steph93065
    In 2016, Trump voters were Deplorable

    In 2017, Trump voters were Russians

    In 2018, Trump voters were Nazis

    In 2019, Trump voters are wittingly or unwittingly, white supremacists.

    The people calling you these things would like you to vote for them.

    #TrumpForever #MAGA2020
    1:14 AM · Aug 17, 2019

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