News from Tolga and Jo Nova on fire. Update, a new paper from Judy Curry. And why CO2 is not the climate control knob

Our man in Tolga (north Queensland) has written to the local press on the absurd green tape tying up farmers.

QUOTE
The ever-tightening regulatory stranglehold on farmers by governments “for the health of the Reef (The Express, 21/8) is based on what Professor Peter Ridd has called “faulty science”.

Fertilisers are expensive and they aren’t used wastefully. They’re plant food; if the crops don’t consume them then the neighbouring vegetation, on land or in waterways, will – long before they get to the Reef.

If fertilisers were running off farms there’d be big green plumes leading downhill from them, easily visible on Google Earth. There aren’t. Likewise with herbicides and pesticides, there’d be big plumes of dead flora or fauna visible to drones. Again; there aren’t. It may have happened in the past, but these aren’t current problems.

Terrestrial silt run-off is a different matter to fertilisers and herbicides/pesticides. It has been pluming out from rivers since time began. The coastal reefs have always experienced it.

Just 15,000 years ago during the last ice-age the seas were 120 metres lower, the Reef’s current site was a coastal plain, and the Reef clung to the edge of the continental shelf. Everything that came out of the rivers washed over the whole Reef. And, yes, there was a lot of silt during the ice-age. CO2 was much lower due to the cooler seas (Henry’s Law), so plants were sparser. It was colder and drier so there was less rain to water what plants there were.

Aboriginal tribes were doing it tough, so they used firestick farming to get what small game there was. That left a lot of bare earth which blew as dust into valleys and was washed out to sea when the rains did come.

But it’s different now. Much of the main Reef area is 40 to 70 kilometres out to sea, and as Professor Ridd said, the prevailing south-easterly wind and currents keep terrestrial run-off much closer to shore. Professor Ridd also notes that more clean ocean water flows through the Reef each day than flows from our rivers each year.

Nonetheless, the mud-meme is being heavily promoted at present; “Earlier this year, a muddy plume of polluted water hit our Reef. It was so big you could see it from space.” Search the internet for “Muddy plume extends to Great Barrier Reef images from space” and there’s several alarmist websites (including ‘our’ ABC) showing just one obviously-modified image.

It purports to show a wet-season plume (during the recent Townsville floods) extending about 50 kilometres out to sea from the Burdekin River – which drains an area twice the size of Tasmania. The nearest reef to the Burdekin’s mouth is about 57 kilometres out and the plume certainly isn’t “hitting” it, let alone even touching the other 344,400 square kilometres of the GBR.

But we sceptics always track information back to its source, in this case the original image is found here. https://eoimages.gsfc.nasa.gov/images/imagerecords/48000/48438/qsld_amo_2011004.jpg.

Yep, you guessed it, the alarmists “shopped” the photo, the soil run-off is getting nowhere near the Reef; at best it’s going about 40 kilometres out – and it isn’t even a real problem anyway.

But the regulations on the farmers who produce our food get ratcheted ever tighter – based on myths and deliberate misinformation.

There is so much wrong with the anti-farmer attitudes of our governments that I struggle to find anything right with them. How did we come to be “led” by such damagingly ignorant people? Who do they really work for; Australians or the United Nations?
END QUOTE

Jo Nova on the firestorm of fake news about burning in the Amazon, quite likely Green sabotage to discredit one of the few leaders in the world who is prepared to stand against the Green tide. Read it all and circulate!

More incendiary reporting from Jo on nonsense about rising sea levels.

BONUS LIBERTY QUOTE

Capitalism has created the highest standard of living ever known on earth. The evidence is incontrovertible. The contrast between West and East Berlin is the latest demonstration, like a laboratory experiment for all to see. Yet those who are loudest in proclaiming their desire to eliminate poverty are loudest in denouncing capitalism. Man’s well-being is not their goal.

— Ayn Rand

UPDATE. An important new paper by Judith Curry, a really big hitter in the climate science community and one of the most sane and helpful commentators.

A few words on the intended audience and motivation for writing this:

First and foremost, this is written for the clients of Climate Forecast Applications Network who are interested in scenarios of future climate change [link]

Second, this paper is written as a contribution to my series of academic papers on the topic of uncertainty in climate science:

Climate Science and the Uncertainty Monster
Reasoning About Climate Uncertainty
Nullifying the Climate Null Hypothesis
Climate Change: No Consensus on Consensus
Climate Uncertainty and Risk

Third, the paper is written to inform the public debate on climate change and policy makers. I am ever hopeful that some sanity can be interjected into all this.

A well-illustrated short paper on why CO2 is not the key factor in warming.

This entry was posted in Global warming and climate change policy, property rights, Rafe, Take Nanny down. Bookmark the permalink.

18 Responses to News from Tolga and Jo Nova on fire. Update, a new paper from Judy Curry. And why CO2 is not the climate control knob

  1. stackja

    Greens misusing information.
    I am shocked.

  2. Cardimona

    Thanks for putting this up, Rafe.
    The Express in an independently-owned weekly paper based in Mareeba.
    They may or may not print this letter.
    Meanwhile I’m still de-platformed at the Cairns Post.
    The Cairns Post loves printing the green-left scare stories.
    It was their “Dead Reef” headlines that were repeated world-wide and knocked $60 million out of NQ tourism in just one season.
    The editor of the Cairns Post can walk out the back door of her office and watch the Reef cruise boats heading out each morning, apparently without wondering why they’re still in business.
    IMHO she was a diversity hire and clearly wasn’t the best person for the job.

  3. Cardimona

    The Express “is” – bloody automistake….

  4. Cardimona

    On the bright side, the following got into yesterday’s Townsville Bulletin….

    Tony Tsimbas (TB, 23/8) has again listed the scary predictions that have failed to eventuate and insists that they have – or they will soon. Let’s examine them.

    “The Antarctic ice shelf is shrinking.” The National Snow and Ice Data Centre’s Antarctic ice anomaly chart shows a little less ice near the volcanically-active West Antarctic Peninsula and a little more elsewhere. The overall ice mass balance is trending upwards.

    “Arctic ice is decreasing.” Rutgers University’s Global Snow Lab shows Arctic ice is trending up in winter and trending up sharply in autumn. Just last year Greenland’s regular passenger ship was unexpectedly trapped in sea-ice nearly a month into spring.

    “Glaciers are disappearing”. The USA’s famous Glacier National Park quietly removed its prominent signs declaring the Park’s glaciers were all expected to disappear by either 2020 or 2030 – because they’re actually growing again.

    “Sea level rise.” Just this week we heard the panicked shrieking from Tuvalu about disappearing beneath rising seas, except even the ABC’s Fact Check Unit had to admit that the land area of Tuvalu is actually increasing. Alarmists are very cruel scaring island folk that way.

    “Ocean acidification.” This is a frankly ridiculous phrase. On the PH scale the oceans are “basic” solutions. If acidity were to increase it would get closer to neutral, not become “more acidic”. Just using the phrase “ocean acidification” indicates ignorance.

    “Species are becoming extinct.” Ninety-nine percent of all the species to have lived on Earth have gone extinct. Extinctions are normal. Plus, advanced civilisations with fertilisers and machinery capitalising on fossil fuels have protected natural areas better than poor countries have.

    “Some cities are facing a water crisis.” Yes, that’s what happens when you increase populations without a commensurate increase in dams for water storage. And who blocks dams? Yep, greenie climate alarmists do.

    “Every year new record high temperatures are set.” Yes, and we see that narrative maintained with sensors that don’t meet standards, records that are “homogenised”, and recording stations in cold places closed and new ones in hot places opened.

    For a man who claims he’s “interested in evidence”, Tony sure seems to be a big consumer of agitprop from the vested interests behind the climate scam – but sure, Tony, I’m the one “living under a rock.”

    (377 words)

  5. Tintarella di Luna

    Great letter Cardimona

  6. Roger

    “Sea level rise.” Just this week we heard the panicked shrieking from Tuvalu about disappearing beneath rising seas, except even the ABC’s Fact Check Unit had to admit that the land area of Tuvalu is actually increasing. Alarmists are very cruel scaring island folk that way.

    So why didn’t “ScoMo” call his bluff instead of shifting blame (for what, exactly?) to the Australian electorate?

  7. Roger

    And good work, Cardimona.

  8. New Chum

    This is all about the destruction of the economies of the western world .
    there was an article by Dr Tim Ball at Watts up With That

    Ontario, Canada: A Mirror of America’s Economic Future Mortgaged To Falsified Climate Science
    Anthony Watts / June 3, 2014
    Guest essay by Dr. Tim Ball
    This is some of what was posted (I was unable to post the url)
    Strong referred to is Maurice Strong

    He’d already created mechanisms to eliminate fossil fuels and bring about reduction and destruction of western economies. Ontario was his personal application and they were a disaster.
    Sounds good, but it was a path to inadequate supply. Key is the phrase he, “pushed for sustainable development”. In Strong’s, keynote speech at the Rio Earth Summit he said:
    “Current lifestyles and consumption patterns of the affluent middle class – involving high meat intake, the use of fossil fuels, electrical appliances, home and work-place air-conditioning, and suburban housing – are not sustainable.”

    He’d already created mechanisms to eliminate fossil fuels and bring about reduction and destruction of western economies. Ontario was his personal application and they were a disaster.

    Replacing nuclear and fossil fuel energies with alternate energies drives up the costs and creates a multitude of other problems. A US Senate report notes,
    “Comparisons of wind, solar, nuclear, natural gas and coal sources of power coming on line by 2015 show that solar power will be 173% more expensive per unit of energy delivered than traditional coal power, 140% more than nuclear power and natural gas and 92% more expensive than wind power. Wind power is 42% more expensive than nuclear and natural gas power.” “Wind and solar’s “capacity factor” or availability to supply power is around 33%, which means 67% of the time wind and solar cannot supply power and must be supplemented by a traditional energy source such as nuclear, natural gas or coal.”

    In 2008 Obama told the San Francisco Chronicle that the
    “notion of no coal . . . is an illusion,” and he favored a cap-and-trade system. “So if somebody wants to build a coal-powered plant, they can,” “It’s just that it will bankrupt them because they’re going to be charged a huge sum for all that greenhouse gas that’s being emitted.”

  9. J.H.

    Good letter Cardimona.

    I gave up on the Cairns Post a long time ago. Excitable bunch of immature ecofascists without a journalistic bone in their bodies.

  10. John Constantine

    Their Hussein Obama’s ‘waters of the United States’ legislation used water runoff as the entry point to control all landuse.

    In Australia, their left is claiming control of all land that interacts with runoff that interacts with waterways that interact with the ocean that the reef sits in.

    This legislation can be signed up as a transnational looting convention and be a starting point to control all Australian runoff as far south as Tasmania.

    Comrades.

  11. duncanm

    Look – don’t get me wrong – this is fantastic work, but there are plenty of sat images from around Feb12th which show the plume reaching the reef. I wouldn’t automatically assume photoshop.

    linky

    Of course such events have been happening for millenea – so what’s the alarm?

  12. Entropy

    Fertilisers are expensive and they aren’t used wastefully. They’re plant food; if the crops don’t consume them then the neighbouring vegetation, on land or in waterways, will – long before they get to the Reef.

    You don’t know Burdekin cane farmers.
    Now, I am against regulation because it won’t actually solve the problem, but keep an army of regional clipboard warriors busy, and an even bigger army of clipboard warriors in Brisbane and Canberra checking the work and $ spent by the clipboard warriors on the ground.
    But it is certainly the case that too many overfertilise. They look at the label, and either half again, or at the least add “the GST” or an extra 10%.
    This is because they operate a monoculture. Cane is usually grown on the same paddocks year after year, for 4 or 5 ratoons, then fallow before the next plant cane goes in. As the years go by the nodes on the cane get closer and closer together, the soil more flogged out. Channel irrigation is used on the Burdekin to keep moisture levels high and thus more runoff. Rotation cropping with a legume is not as common as it should be to rehabilitate the paddocks. But the growers fund it hard to change.
    And while ever the best type of land for growing cane is defined as within five mile of the mill, it won’t.

    Look, there is no doubt the doom and gloom on the reef is ridiculously exaggerated. You just need to go and look at it yourself, if you can afford to. And these fearmongers have given the impression world wide it is dead. A friend of mine went on a holiday and went on a diving tour at Hanuema Bay, which is supposed to be Hawaii’s best coral. Compared with the even the southernmost GBR reefs it is amazingly dull. But the guides were saying now the GBR is dying you have to go to Hawaii to see good coral. The other tourist were lapping it up and looked weirdly at her when she laughed.

    That said, I don’t think you can get away with saying Burdekin canefarmers don’t over use fertiliser. because many of them do.

  13. Cardimona

    That said, I don’t think you can get away with saying Burdekin canefarmers don’t over use fertiliser. because many of them do.

    Entropy, would you please clarify, does this tell us the army of regional clipboard warriors is failing to do its job?
    Why aren’t we seeing fertilised roadside and creek plumes extending from over-fertilised farms on Google Earth?

  14. Entropy

    Well you wouldn’t ordinarily see “plumes”. That is what you get in floods with a lot of sediment. It is what the load actually is in the water that matters. As to regulation. Yeah I am sceptical if the purpose is to reduce load in waterways. Regs are blunt instruments, they target everyone regardless of, let’s say for the purpose of the exercise, “guilt”.
    Thing is most sediment and other problems are point source, while the reg is targeting and imposing costs on everyone.
    I am surprised they just don’t identify and buy out and rehabilitate the major point sources. Ninety % of the job done.

  15. John A

    duncanm #3140516, posted on August 25, 2019, at 5:06 pm

    Look – don’t get me wrong – this is fantastic work, but there are plenty of sat images from around Feb12th which show the plume reaching the reef. I wouldn’t automatically assume photoshop.

    linky

    Of course such events have been happening for millenea – so what’s the alarm?

    Duncanm, your linky shows the plume not reaching as far out as the original quote linky. So while I agree with your point, and with the original post, I don’t think you have supported your argument. 🙂

  16. struth

    urea based products cane farmers use is very expensive and SFA of it is wasted.

  17. Iampeter

    A well-illustrated short paper on why CO2 is not the key factor in warming.

    Who wrote this terrible paper? Was it Curry too? In any case it’s certainly something that I think she would agree with.

    It basically gets everything wrong from the very beginning:

    There is no debate as to whether or not atmospheric carbon dioxide, or CO2, is a so-called greenhouse gas. When present in the atmosphere, this one-carbon and two-oxygen molecule indeed has the capacity to absorb infrared radiation and warm the planet.

    There is indeed no debate because there’s no such thing as a “greenhouses gas.”
    CO2’s ability to absorb infrared ratiation has nothing to do with warming anything, nor is our planet warmed by our atmosphere. Our atmosphere cools our planet.
    These are high school, or maybe first year Uni-level mistakes from people who don’t actually know how greenhouses work.

    The paper by Curry that is linked here is NOT important. It is devastating to those of us who actually oppose the AGW agenda because it assumes all of the junk science of the environmentalists.
    The only reason that this nonsense has gotten this far is because people who should know better, like Curry, have quietly conceded all of the most important points.

    The problem with “luke-warmers” like Curry et al, with regards to the AGW issue, is the same as the problem with conservatives with regards to politics in general. Both movements don’t seem to have a grasp of even the basics of their respective subjects, so their efforts serve to achieve nothing but destroy the discourse, which means the left wins by default.

  18. struth

    The problem with “luke-warmers” like Curry et al, with regards to the AGW issue, is the same as the problem with conservatives with regards to politics in general. Both movements don’t seem to have a grasp of even the basics of their respective subjects, so their efforts serve to achieve nothing but destroy the discourse, which means the left wins by default.

    Our Lord hath spoken.
    The Lord who thinks Christianity has SFA to do with the west.
    Rabbit.

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