Politics is reality television, especially American politics where a cast of a dozen contest the primaries. Like a good reality television show, there are set events and episodes, such as debates and primaries, where the weaker contestants are gradually knocked out until one emerges to fight the other side for the ultimate prize – the Presidency.
Reality television shows typically assemble a cast of mismatched characters who bond together and feud amongst each other over tasks that are assigned by the script writers and star. They inject challenges into the cast to create tension and drama that changes the cast’s allegiances and relationships in a way that engages the audience and leads to a cast member(s) being removed from the show.
Donald Trump produced and starred in the highly successful reality television show, the Apprentice, for 11 years. I believe Donald Trump is the first politician to conduct politics as if it were a reality television show. Rudolph Guliani claims the Ukraine story, which blew up this week, was a trap laid for the Democrats who walked straight into it. Trump knew the cast of Democrat Congressmen and Presidential candidates couldn’t resist the challenge Trump injected into the cast.
Succeeding in reality television is about timing that creates the drama that engages the audience and gradually removes cast members. So why inject this Ukraine story now? I suspect Trump injected this script item into the Democrat Party cast now to ensure that he dramatically realigns the cast’s relationships and allegiances as they go into primary season. He wants to do this by removing the front runner. If I am right, Trump wants a viciously divided Democratic Party Convention that can barely stand the nominee the Party selects as the Democratic challenger to Donald Trump.
The Ukraine trap effectively knocks Biden out of the race – he can’t go to a debate with highly credible and growing allegations of corruption swirling around him. The Democrat establishment will ensure he retires for “health reasons” to avoid Democrat corruption dominating the next debate. So the 20%-25% of Democrats who previously supported Biden will need to cast their lot with another candidate. But who?
Guliani has guaranteed that there is more and worse to come, including recordings and documents. Yesterday investigative reporter John Solomon claimed to have 450 pages of damning documents from Hunter Biden’s legal team that confirms Joe Biden’s corruption. And the even larger Biden – China scandal is yet to fu;;y emerge. It involves $1.5 bn in an expanded cast of Democrats that includes John Kerry’s step son and Whitey Bulger’s nephew. They all profited from massive Chinese investments coincidentally made whilst Joe Biden failed to negotiate a deal for America. Trump could easily throw in Senator Dianne Feinstein’s husband’s massive deals in China whilst she had a Chinese spy as a staffer and he gets to reprise the Clinton Foundation scandals and profiteering as well. This narrative arc ends with a widespread public perception, including amongst many Democrat voters, that the Democratic Party includes a large number of highly corrupt politicians who enrich themselves and their families by selling out America and Democrat voters.
Once this narrative emerges over the next month or so, it will be reinforced by the release of the Inspector General’s Report into the FISA abuse scandal. Regardless of whether anyone is charged, the public’s growing perception of widespread Democrat corruption will be reinforced by an independent authority. In fact, if there are no charges, that perception of corruption will be even worse. And after that settles down we might see some indictments from John Durham in the New Year all leading up to and overshadowing the Democrat Primary season and probably right up to the Party Convention.
The re-arrangement of cast loyalties creates an opportunity for a new Democrat challenger to emerge. They have Joe Biden’s ex supporters vote to win. I believe Trump wants a Democrat challenger to emerge who promises to clean up the corrupt Democrat Party. There is only one viable contender for this role – Tulsi Gabbard. She is the only contender against impeachment, has already dominated one debate and isn’t afraid to take it up to the Democrat establishment. Then Trump can campaign on draining the swamp again in 2020.
If Gabbard adopts this role it will destroy the Democrat Party, drive massive allegiance shifts within the Democrat establishment, candidate cast members and lead to a bitter civil war between the Sanders – Warren – Squad far left wing of the Party against the establishment beneficiaries of Democrat corruption all pitted against the decent ordinary Democrat voters who want their Party back.
If this is Trump’s plan, it will be spectacular and will help him achieve a key 2016 election pledge – to drain the swamp. If this is Trump’s plan, he is indeed a very stable genius who just rewrote the political rule book by turning American politics into the Trumpman Show, where Donald Trump is the star and the Democrats are the feuding cast the audience watches every week as they try to rise to the challenge the star sets for them. If this is Trump’s plan he will likely win “bigly” in 2020.