Busting the Morrison Myth

Scott Morrison’s growing stature amongst the conservative press and even some contributors to this blog belies his accomplishments.

Denis Shanahan at The Australian seems so hell bent on restoring Newspoll credibility he has decided to invest in ScoMo “miracles”.

Truth is, this is nothing more than plausible deniability as to why Newspoll so comprehensively failed to call the election result.

Thus, according to Shanahan a Newspoll result showing more or less the same primary vote as election night is heralded as a triumph.

He states

“There is one stand-out conclusion from the latest Newspoll survey showing the Coalition’s primary vote support at 42 per cent: there is no sign of buyers’ remorse from voters in the five months since the election.

Better still he says:

Scott Morrison has proved to be the best prime minister at retaining winning election levels of primary support five months out from polling day since Kevin Rudd’s popular sweeping victory in 2007.

From this he deduces that the Coalition is on a footing for sustained success finishing the year by “entrenching the “miracle” gains of election night”.

This analysis is so bad and thde conclusion so poor it is hard to know where to start.

Hence, in no order I make the following remarks:

1. A primary vote of just 42% is election losing territory, hence why they won with a wafer thin majority of just two seats.

2. Thus, holding a historically losing primary vote of 42% is not a “miracle gain” or a position of strength.

3. Improving off a such a low base would be expected, as Howard in 1998 shows, except Howard rose by 7.5% and Morrison in 2019 by just 0.6%.

4. Howard in 1998 restored the Coalition primary vote after 5 months to 47% which is landslide territory.

5. The corollary is going backwards off a high primary vote. Abbott won with a primary vote of 45.6%. He is marked down for falling to Morrison levels.

5. Morrison at 42% is in losing territory as the Rudd election shows. This is what they got in 2007 and Rudd had an 18 seat majority.

6. Rudd demonstrates that a historic high primary vote 5 months after an election is meaningless, hence the minority Gillard Government of 2010.

7. Even Turnbull outperformed Morrison on primary vote, albeit his victory was one seat slimmer. Again this is meaningless.

My conclusion is totally opposite to that of Shanahan. In deriving my conclusion I factor in the following:

1. Labor lost the last election more than Morrison won it.

2. Off such a low election primary vote one would have expected a bounce in the polls as per Howard in 1998.

3. The absence of a bounce (i.e. honeymoon period) means voters are open to Labor getting their act together.

4. The absence of a bounce despite Labor leadership machinations and post-election mea culpa reviews is a worrying sign.

5. The absence of a bounce despite NSW Labor corruption (Chinese money laundering) scandals is a cause for concern.

6. The absence of a bounce despite the gift that is Jackie Trad is concerning (albeit they can only go backwards in QLD).

7. The economy is faltering and the Coalition do not have any answers, the surplus is unlikely to survive and debt will continue to grow.

8. The Coalition’s “economic management” credentials (as badly defined as they are) are unlikely to survive economic reality (i.e. Treasury forecasts).

9. A change in government in QLD in late 2020 would severely damage the Morrison Governments re-election prospects.

My conclusion (at this point in time) is that the Coalition is unlikely to win the next election. What Newspoll really shows, in contrast to the opinion of its conflicted writers, is that they are not resonating with the electorate despite a period of comparative strength over the ALP.

Hence, any improvement by Albanese (off a low base) over the next two years will likely deliver him government.

The Coalition need to build support if they are to win in 2021, but at present they do not have a policy program to do it.

Morrison virtue signals conservative “Menzies” style government, but his policy decisions, or more apt, inactions, say otherwise. The “quiet Australians” are not easily fooled.

The Morrison Government is a continuation of the Turnbull Government with slightly different spin. In substance terms it is equally hollow.

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43 Responses to Busting the Morrison Myth

  1. stackja

    Scomo is like MT. Not sure what to do.
    Scomo won leadership because not enough wanted Peter Dutton.

  2. zyconoclast

    SloMo is an @rse-clown.

  3. mundi

    LNP winning QLD? hahahaha good one.

  4. Old Lefty

    The senior Labor figure who pondered why Labor couldn’t even beat this bunch of muppets was – in spite of himself – pretty close to the mark.

  5. Bruce of Newcastle

    Maybe if Morro worked on winning back the base his primary vote would go up?
    The Libs seem happy to dispense with deplorables and chase mythical centrists.

  6. Squirrel

    “The economy is faltering and the Coalition do not have any answers, the surplus is unlikely to survive and debt will continue to grow.”

    Nor does anyone else have any palatable or workable answers. Our national economic model (population-pumped consumption funded by debt and asset sales) is unsustainable, and the RBA and other regulators have painted themselves into a corner by allowing our households (and thus our banks) to become hideously leveraged to insane property prices.

    The Coalition have basically cheered this on, but no other mainstream political voices have been raised against it, and they are probably still the lesser of two evils to deal with things if it all blows up.

  7. a reader

    I think the truth is somewhere between the paper and the poster

  8. Deplorable

    When will the liberals take to the electors policies of the sensible centre right instead of the insane policies of the extreme left socialists. It is hard to warm to any government that supports socialist ideals instead of good management.
    Morrison has a long road to travel to present acceptable conservative policies to the electorate such as Abbot did despite the socialists that crushed him. The policies he brought to the election gained a huge mandate that was trashed by the traitors. From my point of view I believe Peter Dutton is the man to lead the liberals out of the socialist wilderness if the party can rid itself of the enemies within.

  9. Shy Ted

    Today in the media with the nonsense about the boys on the tram singing is the perfect opportunity for him to stand up against PCness. Fail.

  10. mh

    9. A change in government in QLD in late 2020 would severely damage the Morrison Governments re-election prospects.

    Most Qlders wouldn’t be able to name the LNP leader.

    Labor have been in power in Qld for 18 of the last 21 years.

  11. Roger

    …they are probably still the lesser of two evils to deal with things if it all blows up.

    And they know how to trade on that fact:

    “Vote for us, we’re not Labor!”

    To his credit, though, Frydenberg has thus far resisted calls for stimulus. Perhaps Peter Costello has gotten into his ear.

  12. Roger

    Most Qlders wouldn’t be able to name the LNP leader.

    Nonsense.

    It’s Lawrence Springboard.

  13. Dr Fred Lenin

    Scrap all renewable subsidies,reduce pwer bills. Re open Hazelwood ,buy Japanese low emision power sttions for Qld,NSW Victorian and SA coal fields ,go i to nuclear power and we wont see an alp gangrene government for a generation . Its all in the wallet and purse you know ,thats where the political power is .

  14. mh

    Time for this Springboard chap to move over and give a woman a go.

  15. Howard Hill

    HAHA! The UN Water Boy, love it. Nuff said!

  16. Roger

    Time for this Springboard chap to move over and give a woman a go.

    Is Tim Mander now identifying as a woman?

  17. egg_

    Scomo is like MT.

    SloMo is a low wattage Trumble.

  18. candy

    SloMo is a low wattage Trumble

    Much of a muchness. They were good mates when Turnbull was PM, and worked well together apparently, and probably still are good mates.
    Turnbull has always had good things to say about Morrison even though he was deposed by Morrison.

  19. Chris M

    the Coalition do not have any answers

    Yeah they do. Regulate and spend always works for Labor, why should Lib not get to try also?

    Morrison is a directionless, unimaginative and clueless, in other words a typical boomer that should never be put in charge of anything serious. Rudd, Gillard, Turnbull, Morrison – the country cannot survive this destructive generation.

  20. Tim Neilson

    Turnbull has always had good things to say about Morrison even though he was deposed by Morrison.

    Not really candy.

    Mick Trumble put his own brilliant strategy into effect by declaring a spill when there was no challenge, assuming that he’d get a landslide win in the absence of an organised opponent.

    At that point ScoMo was nowhere to be seen. Dutton spontaneously nominated and got so many votes that Trumble flounced off in a fit of fury.

    Then the Trumble faction had to find a candidate capable of beating Dutton. They knew Bishop couldn’t, so they monstered all her potential supporters into voting for Trumble’s anointed successor, the one and only ScoMo.

    Don’t get me wrong – ScoMo’s victory over the truly appalling Peanut Head is enough to compensate for just about any failings he displays for the rest of his career.
    But it’s wrong to credit him with the joyous extrusion of Trumble from the body politic.

  21. Morrison must truly pray in thanks at Hillsong that his opponent was Shorten.

    He won an election as PM; he hasn’t come close to implementing anything in the Liberal Party manifesto.

    That’s all they’ve got to do, if they did that, the LDP, ACP and arguably PHON may never have formed.

  22. candy

    “So they monstered all her potential supporters into voting for Trumble’s anointed successor, the one and only ScoMo”.

    Yes, Tim, Turnbull and Morrison are good mates, otherwise the spill/challenge would not have resulted the way it did. My thoughts are that the friendship goes back to the 2014/2015 days of spilling Abbott – Pyne/Bishop etc. etc. Ancient history now, but Morrison and Turnbull remained friends and loyal to each other from that time.
    Scott Morrison was destined to be PM, one way or the other, Turnbull passing the baton to his treasurer.

  23. Dr Fred Lenin

    Turnbull was persuaded shorten would beat him ,he didnt want that indignity on his plate so he put on an act and pushed scomo forward to take a beating ,another mistake he made like when he got smart in court and lost Packer the unloseable case ,then trusting that thief Adler causingGoldman Sachs to get rid of him , \ ,followed by his bid to lead the republican mob ,followed by the twirly mercury infested light globes . With that record of failure the stupid libs make him prime monster ? Makes you think dont it ?

  24. mareeS

    Justinian, mock Morisson all you like, but consider Shorten as PM and Labor on the government benches.

    No thanks.

  25. Beachcomber

    Dr Fred Lenin at 8:02 pm

    Scrap all renewable subsidies,reduce pwer bills. Re open Hazelwood ,buy Japanese low emision power sttions for Qld,NSW Victorian and SA coal fields ,go i to nuclear power and we wont see an alp gangrene government for a generation . Its all in the wallet and purse you know ,thats where the political power is .

    Very true Dr Fred. Morrison only had go little bit that way, supporting coal mining, and it won the election. Go all the way with the resultant noise from the howler monkeys in Labor-Green and the ABC, and the Coalition would win the next election very easily.

  26. Mark M

    My vote is safe with PHON:

    One Nation senator takes aim at BoM over climate change data

    https://www.sbs.com.au/news/one-nation-senator-takes-aim-at-bom-over-climate-change-data

    “But on Monday in estimates, he pointed to a graph which he says can no longer be accessed on the Bureau of Meteorology’s website.

    He said this had outlined the number of “very hot days” from 1920 to 2015, suggesting the bureau had removed the graph because it didn’t fit a climate change narrative.

    “This graph goes against the narrative of the climate extremists and it was removed,” the Queensland senator said.

    “It can no longer be accessed.

    “Was it removed because it goes against the narrative or was it removed because there was an error?”

  27. Diogenes

    Scott who?
    Anthony who?
    Gladys who?
    No idea who the NSW ALP leader is, ie couldn’t pick her out of a police lineup – I do know her deputy, my useless local member, eeeerrrr Jasmine whatsherface !

    Everybody really seems to be keeping their collective heads right under the parapet.

  28. Win

    I am in Peter Dutton’s electorate so had to vote for Morrison. How strange that under Abbott Morrison and Jim Molan gained spectacular success with Turning back the boats. That neither Abbott or Molan have a place in Morrisons sphere of influence puts a large question mark over Morrison abilities.

  29. min

    On another thread I posted how a group I have belonged for nearly 20 years has gone woke and left leaning . Speaking with members of other groups in this U3A of 90 different classes they observe the same thing happen. This helps to explain then how John Pesutto lost his seat, Will Fowles got elected and Josh Frydenberg had stiff opposition in a blue ribbon conservative area.
    Socialism is rearing its ugly head as well as the 24 hr media cycle and the ABC to which they mainly listen , is more left leaning. Therefore it is hard to compare Howard ‘s results with those of more recent times because he did not have similar conditions influencing voters.

  30. Win

    The Liberals in the LNP refuse to vote for a National Party Leader. Laurence Springborgs sacrifice has been in vain.

  31. Percy Popinjay

    Goose Morristeen is mediocrity personified, as is Josh Frydchickenberger.

    The gliberals are an irredeemable pack of spineless imbeciles who will inevitably implement a whole shitsack of destructive, incoherent and utterly unnecessary collectivist “policies” in the short period they have remaining on the treasury benches – at the behest of a braindead lamestream meeja they are absolutely terrified of.

    P.S. I did not vote for any gliberal candidate last election (or the election before that).

  32. Leo G

    Consider the showy bloomers, how they grow: they neither toil nor spin, yet even Shlomoh in all his glory was not arrayed like one of these.

  33. Elderly White Man From Skipton

    The bubble effect is becoming quite bizarre. Australians now have two small, warring tribes fighting over the spoils of Canberra. One branch is basically trade union based, the other is basically a front for some narrow corporate interests. Each has a media cheer squad, similarly aligned.
    The remaining 96% of the population are forced to sit back and wonder when important matters might be addressed.

  34. Tezza

    I follow up to point #9. Why so?

  35. Elderly White Man From Skipton
    #3191540, posted on October 23, 2019 at 9:16 am

    The bubble effect is becoming quite bizarre. Australians now have two small, warring tribes fighting over the spoils of Canberra. One branch is basically trade union based, the other is basically a front for some narrow corporate interests. Each has a media cheer squad, similarly aligned.
    The remaining 96% of the population are forced to sit back and wonder when important matters might be addressed.

    It’s a miracle. You actually made a decent post.

  36. IF ONLY

    https://www.liberal.org.au/our-beliefs

    We Believe:

    In the inalienable rights and freedoms of all peoples; and we work towards a lean government that minimises interference in our daily lives; and maximises individual and private sector initiative

    In government that nurtures and encourages its citizens through incentive, rather than putting limits on people through the punishing disincentives of burdensome taxes and the stifling structures of Labor’s corporate state and bureaucratic red tape.

    In those most basic freedoms of parliamentary democracy – the freedom of thought, worship, speech and association.

    In a just and humane society in which the importance of the family and the role of law and justice is maintained.

    In equal opportunity for all Australians; and the encouragement and facilitation of wealth so that all may enjoy the highest possible standards of living, health, education and social justice.

    That, wherever possible, government should not compete with an efficient private sector; and that businesses and individuals – not government – are the true creators of wealth and employment.

    In preserving Australia’s natural beauty and the environment for future generations.

    That our nation has a constructive role to play in maintaining world peace and democracy through alliance with other free nations.

  37. FelixKruell

    What Newspoll really shows, in contrast to the opinion of its conflicted writers, is that they are not resonating with the electorate despite a period of comparative strength over the ALP.

    Why are we believing anything Newspoll says? They got the election polling wrong – what’s to say the current polling is accurate?

  38. Sean

    Sco Mo has to credit mainly for what he’s not doing at the moment. If the ALP were in charge we would have higher taxes and be about to embark on a useless (long term) fiscal stimulus of the pay packet of public servants.

  39. Sean

    We need less government not more. I think the Australian writers want intervention (the illusion of action) to prop up the interests of already established companies i.e. their advertisers rather than real reform.

    Anything non big pro-business they attack mercilessly whilst complaining about the lack of an ‘agenda’ for the major 2 parties

  40. bundyrum

    Keep voting for the same parties election after election & get the same downward trajectory.

  41. DaveR

    Scomo is like MT.

    ScoMo is nothing like MT. He does have a political bone in his body – a large number of them.

    Perhaps he is waiting for the ALP to fully damage themselves before he starts to re-engage the right of the party. Yes, that must be the reason.

  42. Justinian the Great.

    Tezza, re. Point 9. Coalition are at the high water mark Federally in QLD and the ALP brand is somewhat tarnished by Trad, their handling of Adani and a range of state issues. If there were to be a change of government in QLD the LNP will cop some inevitable voter backlash. Once you are in charge you wear the blame. Therefore the LNP brand is diminished a little which would be enough to make holding onto the high water mark pretty tough. To sustain this year’s result would be miraculous An ALP primary vote below 30% won’t last forever and a state LNP government would likely help restore it. Remember ALP only need to gain 2 more seats.

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