Global Warming is producing fewer “very hot days”

Jo Nova yesterday had a post on the disappearing  “Very Hot Days” graph from the BoM website (see below). Jo made the salient points that there is no meaningful trend across the 105 years record and the year with the most hot days was 1952 when emissions were a a near perfect 311 parts per million and the temperature 1 degree Celsius less than today (also below).

What surprised me was that the year with the fewest hot days was 2011 and the period from 1996 to 2015 had significantly fewer hot days (crude estimate around 20 or 8%) than the preceding 20 year period from 1976 to 1995, including four of the six lowest years for hot days in the whole 105 year record.

I look forward to the BoM explanation as to how the decline in “very hot days” during the “warmest decade on record” is evidence of global warming and not a pause. It will be interesting to see if this graph is reproduced using the ACCORN 2 data reconstruction to see what the changes are.

It will also be interesting to see if Australia experiences a hotter than average summer as the bureau is forecasting and if so whether its reporting of “very hot days” is put into any historical context either by the bureau or the mainstream media.

I won’t hold my breath however. In the Annual Climate Summary – 2011 (published in 2012) it states “The ten-year average for 2002–2011 was the equal-warmest ten-year period on record for Australia (0.52 °C above average).” Note that by starting in 2002 it conveniently misses 1999 and 2000 that were cooler years also and hence years with near record low”very hot days”.

 

 

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34 Responses to Global Warming is producing fewer “very hot days”

  1. Karabar

    Apart from the USGHN dataset and the CDT dataset, there really is no temperature data which has not been tampered with. As is the case with virtually all of this climate crap, “annual global mean temperature” etc is meaningless nonsense, signifying nothing at all. It is just fiction and mendacious sophistry.

  2. yarpos

    I guess we can look forward to the BOMs graph of tropical cyclone intensity and frequency disappearing real soon now also. It runs annoyingly counter the extreme weather narrative and has a wordy explanation on why we should all still be very afraid. Would be a lot simpler just to dissapear it.

  3. herodotus

    BoM is now so similar to the ABC it needs a severe cleanout.

  4. It could snow over the entire coming summer, but the BOM would report it as the hottest ever.

  5. The underlying problem in all of this debate and that is the use of the start date year of 1910. This is when we are assured that BOM had sufficient well located thermometers to gain a meaningful result. Now unbeknownst to the BOM the planet actually existed before then. In fact, if BOM was to include data from a mere 15 years earlier they and their cohort in CSIRO would be able to point to global cooling. The artificiality of arbitrary selection of start dates and then making eternal damnation prognostications on the back of it is up there with Henry Lawsons’s Geological Spieler (and yes CATS I recommend these yarns as a reminder of what can be construed as fact is indeed fiction) And a little aside, if my memory serves me correctly these yarns were written about the same time as the BOM was declaring 1910 its start date for global warming.

  6. Dr Fred Lenin

    Good to see the climate crisis scammers are getting us all ready for the hottest summer in human history , it wont be caused by Chinese or Indians increasing emisssions ,Greta wouldnt see any carbon in those countries . Its the bad privelaged older white mens countries that create the carbon we see everywhere ,its lying about everywhere , they must be deindustrialised totally ,they can buy their consumer goods from the clean Chinese and Indians .
    Where will they get the money to buy these things ? From their governments of course, governments can print money ,its called quantative easing (. What a wonderfull bullshit phrase ,ya gotta hand it to them they come up with some real doozies dont they ?

  7. Richard

    I’m always interested in the idea of WHY an average changes. There can be multiple causes for an average changing, and the specific reasons MATTER. I’ve been tremendously interested in the apparent increase in average temperature of the planet, or Australia or even a given region. It seems to me that might actually “top out” on the maximum temps at any given location, but that the average could still increase if the MINIMUM temp was decreased. And I have a very strong hunch that’s what we’re talking about here – an increase in the minimum temp, driving an increase in the average temp. That’s a VERY different story from there being an increase in the maximum temp.
    Anyone care to speculate on the causes of a rise in the minimum temp? UHI seems an obvious explanation to me, but there must be others…..

  8. Richard

    Goodness I messes that last post up. Reposted with edits :
    I’m always interested in the idea of WHY an average changes. There can be multiple causes for an average changing, and the specific reasons MATTER. I’ve been tremendously interested in the apparent increase in average temperature of the planet, or Australia or even a given region. It seems to me that we might actually “top out” on the maximum temps at any given location, but that the average could still increase if the MINIMUM temp was INCREASED. And I have a very strong hunch that’s what we’re talking about here – an increase in the minimum temp, driving an increase in the average temp. That’s a VERY different story from there being an increase in the maximum temp.
    Anyone care to speculate on the causes of a rise in the minimum temp? UHI seems an obvious explanation to me, but there must be others…..

  9. egg_

    In fact, if BOM was to include data from a mere 15 years earlier they and their cohort in CSIRO would be able to point to global cooling.

    Good ol’ rubbery figures.

  10. Karabar

    Have you ever contemplated the extent to which time and effort is wasted in endlessly discussing and debating whether it is getting hotter or not, whether “emissions” are increasing or not, whether the sea level is rising or falling etc? It is all sheer balderdash. There are no “greenhouse gases” except between the ears of alarmists.
    How about the time and effort wasted discussing and arguing how many “genders” there are? There are two sexes. Period.
    Is it the “Alice in wonderland technique writ large? As in world-wide?
    Are we being dudded by KUBARK? (Counterintelligence Interrogation” (CIA torture guide) dated July 1963:) in which the confusion technique is designed not only to obliterate the familiar but to replace it with the weird.
    “Whether the interrogatee tries to answer or not, the second interrogator follows up (interrupting any attempted response) with a wholly unrelated and equally illogical query. ” Like program on the ABC, or Channel ten. Endless argument about completely foolish gibberish.
    Think about it.
    http://obscurantist.com/oma/alice-in-wonderland/
    https://youtu.be/lGSMPWHKD1w

  11. Ben

    Richard, if you download the ACORN SAT documents that explain the methodology, it’s in there somewhere.

    You are correct that the drivers of the ‘average’ temperature can be a change to the min, max or both.

  12. nb

    bemused, #3193554, posted on October 25, 2019 at 4:25 pm

    It could snow over the entire coming summer, but the BOM would report it as the hottest ever.

    🙂 They really would report it as extreme climate and attach it to their narrative.
    We are currently inhabiting a seriously deranged world, with the left making a run for power over us through the most egregious lies.

  13. Bruce of Newcastle

    “The ten-year average for 2002–2011 was the equal-warmest ten-year period on record for Australia (0.52 °C above average).”

    BoM was caught cooling the past again recently.

    Who knew? The Australian Bureau of Met just made last summer hotter, and history colder (again) (Jonova, 2 Oct)

    What that does is artificially lower the average since they are averaging temperatures over the whole dataset since 1910 (which itself is a tell since the 1880-90 period was very hot).

    By lowering the temperatures in the past and lowering the average they can make it seem like the present is hotter than the average.

    It relies on the assumption that scientists in the early 1900’s didn’t know how to read a thermometer. Which is disingenuous since it isn’t possible to go back in time to check their expertise.

  14. nb

    Karabar #3193582, posted on October 25, 2019 at 5:18 pm

    Is it the “Alice in wonderland technique writ large? As in world-wide? Are we being dudded by KUBARK?

    Definitely part of the equation.

  15. Roger

    “That weather station’s data was deleted from the historical record, Minister.”

    “Deleted, Humphrey? But why?”

    “Its temperature recordings were too high.”

    “Too high relative to what, exactly?”

    “The BOM narrative, Minister.”

    It used to be comedy.

  16. Whalehunt Fun

    You deniers sicken me. It’s just facts facts facts with you planet killers. Facts don’t count. Global warming is real. Malcolm Turnbull said so. That proves it.

  17. mem

    “The ten-year average for 2002–2011 was the equal-warmest ten-year period on record for Australia (0.52 °C above average).”

    So over ten years, over the entire continent of Australia, involving three different temperature zones, BOM comes up with a figure of 0.52 above average (average for which zone?). This is below 1 C and in statistical terms is meaningless and therefore should be rated as zero change. For goodness sake, let’s get some perspective here; nothing has really changed at all. Relax be happy.

  18. Tel

    Karabar #3193582,

    The purpose is to identify people who can think for themselves … isolate those from the meek sheeple who go along with anything no matter who ridiculous. It’s a Communist technique, popular in North Korea.

  19. Russell

    It never ceases to amaze me that for years and years Fred-average in Oz was always sceptical about the BOM. How many jokes were made of them during the 50s, 60s and 70s when everyone knew they could never ever get the weather forecast right. You know “why don’t they just look out the window?” was the common cry.
    Now, sure, we have had some marvellous improvements in sensor technology and they do seem to get very, very short-term forecasts pretty good (mainly driven by aviation industry drivers, I should add). But even BOM forecasting of next week seems to be a challenge.
    So they seem to have focused their attention on the very long-term end of forecasting where the unknown unknowns and confounding variables should drive error bars so high that the underlying prediction is totally meaningless. Of course, this end of forecasting has low professional risk because no one expects confidence but it makes them seem busy with their outlandish forecasting models.
    Methinks new-age Nathan-average of today is just as likely to be doubtful about BOM predictions anywhere beyond the next 24 hours. The mass media just hasn’t caught on to the joke.
    Perhaps there’s a CIA/FBI-type separation here whereby the BOM cannot consider anything off-planet as a driver of the weather or climate. Like the sun?

  20. Dr Fred Lenin

    BOM, creative accontancy ? The ATO takes a very dim view of creative acountats

  21. I_am_not_a_robot

    As anyone with a grasp of the climate emergency™ we face would have realised that the above graph is obviously incorrect and the BoM has responsibly carried out the necessary ‘adjustments’.
    I’m not altogether sure they have it correct yet, the ‘world’s best practice’ followed by the NASA GISTEMP is to ‘adjust’ temperature data post-hoc, to track the monotonic increase in CO2 as near as possible.

  22. calli

    Endless argument about completely foolish gibberish.

    Yes, Karabar. One of the tricks is to expect you to patiently argue your position from “da science” when they won’t do anything of the sort.

    Now I just laugh at them and tell them they’re idiots.

    In a nice way though. I don’t mean to be unkind.

  23. Ferdinand Berfel

    I’m 80 yo. The only climate change I ever experienced in my entire life is when I moved from New Jersey to Arizona.

  24. cohenite

    Yes, Karabar. One of the tricks is to expect you to patiently argue your position from “da science” when they won’t do anything of the sort.

    Now I just laugh at them and tell them they’re idiots.

    Yes, there’s no science, only impressive (to sheeple) sciency gibberish, or since it mainly comes from computer models, GIGO.

    This is a fight now being conducted in the msm, schools, bureaucracy, streets and boardrooms; and sceptics are losing badly. Sceptics only have one remaining tactic: elections; and if Trump goes we’re rooted

  25. sound awake

    i could maybe believe in some of what the climate alarmists had to say if only the crux of their ideology wasnt ultimately and inexorably linked to what could end up being the greatest redistribution of wealth in all of human history
    AND if aoc wasnt their standard bearer

  26. calli

    Thanks, Ian. I’ve bookmarked that graph to demonstrate to true believers how these buggers try to get away with it.

  27. sound awake

    i could maybe believe some of what the climate alarmists are saying if their ideology wasnt ultimately and inexorably linked to what could be the greatest wealth distribution in all of human history
    AND if aoc wasnt their standard bearer

  28. The article brings up an interesting point. The only answer I can think of would be the global warming is mainly producing less cold days, not more very hot ones. But if that was true, I would kind of like that kind of warming.

  29. mem

    Good news for the environment. The A$120 million ($82 million) Crookwell III wind farm in New South Wales has been blocked by the state’s planning authority, citing its unacceptable visual impact.https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-10-25/australian-state-blocks-wind-farm-due-to-its-visual-impact

  30. mem

    The penny is finally dropping. Grid inertia is a problem for renewables.
    General Electric will demolish the 750 MW Inland Empire Energy Center (IEEC) in California that has 20 years remaining in its useful life. With solar and wind dominating the grid, the plant has been deemed uneconomical after operating well below capacity for several years. The site will be used for a new battery storage facility.

    Good news in terms of a zero-carbon future, right? Maybe not. A rush to retire such units may impair the ability of the grid to accept more solar and wind resources in the future. Why? It’s all about a factor known as grid inertia.

    A power network without inertia is one that is unstable, suffers from issues of power quality and is susceptible to blackouts. The primary mechanism for providing inertia is via the presence of heavy rotating equipment such as steam turbines and gas turbines driving generators and rotating generators.

    Efforts to decommission such equipment and replace them with renewable resources, while well intended, could inadvertently hamper the creation of the robust and reliable renewable grid of the future. Additionally, failure to invest in aging turbomachinery in an effort to achieve environmental targets could backfire. Operators could be forced to continue to operate dirty generating resources to provide grid stability and inertia when a small upgrade could greatly reduce emissions and improve the overall resilience of a renewable-focused power network.
    https://www.renewableenergyworld.com/2019/10/25/grid-inertia-why-it-matters-in-a-renewable-world/#gref

  31. mem

    Ferdinand Berfel
    #3194033, posted on October 26, 2019 at 10:24 am

    I’m 80 yo. The only climate change I ever experienced in my entire life is when I moved from New Jersey to Arizona.

    When my family purchased a car with air conditioning it was the best thing ever as my bum didn’t stick to a hot seat or, in some cases burn. One used to carry a towel to sit on to prevent such dilemmas. Now we take AC for granted at home, in the car and at work. We are so lucky for the invention of air conditioning and of course heating, but here in Australia where car seats literally burned you it has been a blessing. As for experiencing climate change, yes it changes a little bit but all the worry and hype is misplaced as it is presently less than a degree and barely measurable.

  32. dan

    I’m so confused as to how exactly posts like these divide facts into facts that are believed, and facts that are assumed to be fake and part of a grand climate conspiracy. The graph on this page is reproduced and it appears that it is taken seriously and being used to argue that little climate change is occurring. But here is a BOM page that presents a century of temperature anomalies in the starkest possible terms.

  33. Beachcomber

    But here is a BOM page that presents a century of temperature anomalies in the starkest possible terms.

    It’s just that the BOM haven’t been able to “homogenise” the data for “very hot days” and get a warming trend. When they have tortured the data enough to get the desired trend, the graph will re-appear on their website.

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