Here’s a question

From Instapundit.

JOEL KOTKIN: Will Australia Become A Vassal State of China? “China presents the most profound challenge to liberal values since the end of the Cold War, a development that has caught our consistently lame political establishment by surprise. The leaders of both parties, and much of the corporate America, never saw it coming.”

.
Well, what’s the answer? Might just add that that the article says nothing specifically about Australia.

This entry was posted in Australian Story. Bookmark the permalink.

51 Responses to Here’s a question

  1. stackja

    The long march continues. Red China spoilt its baby formula industry so buys Australia’s

  2. ACTOldFart

    China has just excluded two Federal coalition politicians from travelling there in a Parliamentary delegation, because they had criticised China. The item on ABC radio news (where else?) this morning was not criticism of China’s thuggish bastardry, but rather a Labor member of the delegation criticising the two colaition members for having their own ideas and speaking out.

    Then you look at some of the prinicipal apologists for China in Australia and you get names like Paul Keating, Gareth Evans, Bob Carr, and Kim Carr. Gee, I wonder what all those guys have in common? ALDI bags, anyone?

  3. candy

    Donald Trump’s lack of interest in human rights and instinctive embrace of dictators

    This writer chap Kotkin is likening Trump to Hitler, Mao etc.

  4. China has just excluded two Federal coalition politicians from travelling there in a Parliamentary delegation, because they had criticised China.

    And how many people has Australia banned from entering Australia simply because they have expressed views that some don’t like?

  5. John Constantine

    Viktoria.

    One Belt, One Road, One Dan.

  6. Roger

    Then you look at some of the prinicipal apologists for China in Australia and you get names like Paul Keating, Gareth Evans, Bob Carr, and Kim Carr. Gee, I wonder what all those guys have in common?

    Perfidy.

  7. mh

    🇨🇳 🇨🇳 🇨🇳🇨🇳🇨🇳 🇨🇳🇨🇳
    .. 🇨🇳 🇨🇳 🇨🇳 🇨🇳
    …… 🇨🇳 🇨🇳🇨🇳 🇨🇳
    …… 🇨🇳 🇨🇳 🇨🇳
    …… 🇨🇳 🇨🇳🇨🇳 🇨🇳🇨🇳

  8. mh

    🇨🇳…….. 🇨🇳……. 🇨🇳🇨🇳🇨🇳………… 🇨🇳🇨🇳
    .. ..🇨🇳 🇨🇳………..🇨🇳………………. 🇨🇳
    …… 🇨🇳 …………. 🇨🇳🇨🇳 ………………. 🇨🇳
    …… 🇨🇳………….. 🇨🇳 ……………………… 🇨🇳
    …… 🇨🇳………….. 🇨🇳🇨🇳……………. 🇨🇳🇨🇳

  9. Bruce of Newcastle

    China has a wicked problem.

    Xi is currently cracking down hard on religions including Christians, Mu slims and Falun Gongers. But he doesn’t have anything to replace them with. So society does what it always does in such circumstances – get more and more corrupt.

    And the areas most prone to corruption are the authorities whose job it is to police corruption.

    Consequently China is on the same arc as the likes of Venezuela and the Soviet Union. They had a time in the sun where under Deng they went pseudocapitalist with toleration of the religions. But now that Xi has returned to a sort of Maoism-lite they are back onto the arc. It won’t work out well.

    The only question is how long until and much fallout there will be when the regime collapses.

  10. A Lurker

    Turn our politicians upside down, give them a shake or two, and a flood of silver pieces would rain down from their pockets.

  11. Arky

    China has a wicked problem.

    Bruce, the discussion is the problem China presents us.
    ..

    Xi is currently cracking down hard on religions including Christians, Mu slims and Falun Gongers. But he doesn’t have anything to replace them with.

    They have replaced religion with a virulent and pretty nasty version of nationalism.
    ..

    They had a time in the sun where under Deng they went pseudocapitalist with toleration of the religions. But now that Xi has returned to a sort of Maoism-lite they are back onto the arc. It won’t work out well.
    ..

    They have 1.4 billion citizens and probably over half of the globe’s population under their influence via proxies. Hence why most posters here are reluctant to openly criticise the regime.

    ..
    The only question is how long until and much fallout there will be when the regime collapses.

    Probably not in our lifetimes, so the question remains: What to do about Chinese influence in our region?

  12. Fisky

    Libertarians fully support this outcome.

  13. Roger

    What to do about Chinese influence in our region?

    How about a moratorium on immigration from the mainland?

  14. Rob MW

    Well, what’s the answer?

    Give em our submarine technology, the port of Darwin and Victoriadan and hope they will be happy little scrotums.

  15. Roger

    We’re a small player reliant on the path the US takes vis a vis China (although if Keating and his perfidious ilk had their way we’d gradually back out of that alliance).

    And China can’t be dealt with by the US in geo-political isolation.

    Here’s a plan.

  16. Juan

    I expect we will see a thriving multi-party democracy in China within our lifetimes.

    I don’t know when it will happen, but when change arrives, it will be unexpected and quick. Think of the rapid sequence of events which resulted in the fall of the Berlin Wall.

    While unlikely to be the catalyst for ending one party rule in China, the Hong Kong protests are making Xi Jinping look dangerously weak.

    Xi is supposedly the most powerful Chinese leader since Mao Zedong, but a dictator who cannot dictate is exposed as weak, and at risk of becoming an ex-dictator.

    Times have changed since Mao, and even since Deng Xiaoping. Deng could do a Tiananmen Square in 1989, but Xi couldn’t do a Tiananmen Square in Beijing today, let alone in Hong Kong.

    Furthermore, Xi as the ‘core leader’ has total control over policy but also bears complete responsibility for policy failures. Beijing’s ham-fisted approach to Hong Kong and Taiwan — with Xi’s intervention with the latter only pushing both sides of the Taiwan Strait further apart, with both the ruling DPP and the more Beijing-friendly KMT rejecting his proposals — will not have gone unnoticed among members of the Central Committee.

    Continued protests in Hong Kong and a re-election of the DPP’s Tsai Ing-wen as President in Taiwan (formally the Republic of China) would be tangible results of Xi’s policy missteps.

    None of which is to suggest dissenting voices within the Central Committee or other parts of the upper echelons of the CCP are democrats at heart, but it does show the monolith of Xi’s rule is not as sturdy as it may at first appear. The defenestration of Xi and his faction would not necessarily catapult China towards its democratic future.

    Returning to the original question: if Taiwan never becomes a vassal state of Xi’s People’s Republic of China, Australia certainly won’t. Xi’s particular brand of hardcore Chinese nationalism will fall before Australia’s independence does.

  17. max

    Mandarins are coming
    

Sorry to tell you but mandarins are long time in,

    Australian Humanists have written civil covenants (constitutions) that make citizenship the product of physical birth or of a State adoption (“naturalized citizenship”)

    Now you have atheist, communist, socialist, democrats, fascist, … who have right to vote as well people with out any skin in the game.


    You abandoned Biblical law, in which Citizenship rested on faith.


    Now you get multiple gods.

  18. Rob MW

    I expect we will see a thriving multi-party democracy in China within our lifetimes.

    Maybe there are about 500,000,000 reasons that you are right, however, there maybe 1,000,000,000 reasons that you ae wrong assuming 33/66 % population split. I think that the only way democracy, of any sort, would or could work in China is if the place was divided into different countries, given the sheer size of the potential voting population and the potential for an overwhelming number of political parties from divergent provinces.

  19. Iampeter

    China has no ability to do anything to Australia. They barely have the capability to project military power within their own region.
    Since Xi is also undoing a lot of the liberal policies that were starting to make China powerful in the first place, they are moving even further away from being a serious threat to anyone other than their immediate neighbors.

    China is going to discover what Putin is discovering: you can’t be an Imperial Power from a thousand years ago and a modern technologically advanced country that could actually pose a serious threat to the modern West.

    The real question is when China implodes, just like when Russia implodes (about 5 mins after Putin dies), how do we best manage that implosion?

  20. Arky

    None of which is to suggest dissenting voices within the Central Committee or other parts of the upper echelons of the CCP are democrats at heart

    ..
    Nobody is a democrat at heart.
    Everyone would like everything their way.
    Our democracy was a hard- earned centuries in the making compromise whereby power was stripped away from the Monarchy and at first distributed among a land owning gentry who provided serfs for labour and warfare, then by a slow process, mainly inspired by the fear of uprisings, and espeacially accelerated by events such as the French revolution and 1917, extended eventually the representation to everyone over the age of 18.

  21. Arky

    It is very hard, apparently, for some here to understand the scale of China.
    It has three times the population of the USA.
    Ten times the population of Japan.
    It really no longer needs the USA as a partner. Chimerica has reached it’s endgame. That endgame was always moving the West’s industrial base to China, then leveraging that industrial might through soft power.
    The world has a choice now: The Chinese sphere or the western sphere. Most have already chosen China, as recent votes in the UN demonstrate, and leaders in the West, most espeacially in academia, acknowledged the problem and responded with a program of deliberate managed decline.

  22. Bruce

    China has no ability to do anything to Australia.”

    Apart from buying land, businesses, ports, transport companies and politicians (elected and unelected)?

  23. Iampeter

    Libertarians fully support this outcome.

    What are you talking about? Policies like that of Xi is what many conservatives support. Good strong leadership from the top, with an “ordered society,” of obedient and mindless, traditionalist drones.

    It is very hard, apparently, for some here to understand the scale of China.
    It has three times the population of the USA.
    Ten times the population of Japan.

    What’s even harder to understand is that it doesn’t matter. Ideas drive history. Without the right ideas all that a giant Chinese population will be good for is protein in their diet as they eat each other, facing starvation as a result of the increasingly authoritarian policies of their own government.

    The world has a choice now: The Chinese sphere or the western sphere.

    There is no Chinese sphere, it’s just the West has forgotten what it stands for and most of it’s loudest defenders sound more like Chinese fascists than Westerners. To the extent we are losing any ground, we are doing so by default. Not because China is doing anything right.

    As always our real threat is not external.

  24. Arky

    Depending on audience and circumstance, apologists for Chinese communism deploy one of two contradictory arguments:
    1. The rise of China is inevitable, nothing we can do.
    2. China is broken and can never be a threat to us.
    The meaning is always the same: Don’t you worry yourself about China.

  25. JC

    China has no ability to do anything to Australia.

    On trade they most certainly do as they showed at the beginning of this year when they suspended all coal and iron ore imports from Australia for a short period of time.

    You really speak nonsense.

  26. Iampeter

    Arky, as someone who has said the following, I’m not really sure who aside from you is a China apologist in this thread:

    Rights and freedoms don’t exist, so can’t be violated.
    If you work hard, fulfil your responsibilities then things will probably be OK.
    Or not.
    But if not, at least you fulfilled your end, which is the best that can be hoped for.
    The worst thing you can do for anyone is to explain their “rights” to them. An act of bastardry.
    The most loving thing you can do for someone is to give them responsibility.

    This sounds like the sort of thing the CCP would print on it’s promo flyers.
    So it’s not clear what you’re issue with China is and you’re certainly no Westerner. You don’t even believe in the most fundamental concepts of Western Civilization.

    Like I said, our real threats are internal and will destroy our civilization long before China gets to be poor again.

  27. Iampeter

    On trade they most certainly do as they showed at the beginning of this year when they suspended all coal and iron ore imports from Australia for a short period of time.

    Trade can’t hurt anyone. To the extent we suffered as a result after China stopped trading with us is a consequence of our own over-regulated markets.
    If we had capitalism, China stopping the purchase of our coal would mean even cheaper electricity prices for Australians, which would mean even cheaper costs for doing business in Australia, which would mean more investment in Australia, which would increase the standard of living in Australia, etc, etc.

    You can’t hurt anyone with trade. We need to get past these 20th century, economically and politically illiterate, Marxist talking points.

  28. Juan

    I think that the only way democracy, of any sort, would or could work in China is if the place was divided into different countries, given the sheer size of the potential voting population and the potential for an overwhelming number of political parties from divergent provinces.

    The splintering of political parties is happening all over the democratic world right now.

    One option for China might be a US-style model with locally based parties which loosely affiliate at a national level to advance their interests. I can envisage that happening especially if China achieves democracy through evolution instead of revolution, starting with people demanding the right to elect at least some of their local government representatives — to have a say in the decisions that most directly affect their lives.

  29. Juan

    Policies like that of Xi is what many conservatives support.

    Contemporary China isn’t easily placed on the left-right political spectrum which, dating from 1789, might still be useful as shorthand but is unhelpful if the terms’ limitations aren’t properly understood.

    With the issues raised by this post, what matters is Xi’s uncompromising brand of Chinese nationalism. This is arguably an attribute of the political right but as a concept fostering commonality across borders, it’s next to useless. Rather than all coming together at some CPAC-ASEAN conference, the nationalist right of China would come into conflict over the South China Sea with the nationalist right of Vietnam, the Philippines, Indonesia, and Malaysia.

  30. Juan

    Citizenship rested on faith.

    This is the first I’ve heard of the concept of ‘Christian citizenship’. How novel! Even the ostensibly Jewish State of Israel doesn’t have a religious test for its citizenry; and if ‘Christian citizenship’ didn’t eventuate when the Church was one of the pillars of the state, it’s unlikely to happen now, or ever.
    



    Now you get multiple gods.

    Au contraire, what you get is a pluralistic society. You know, the thing that differentiate Australia from China.

  31. Juan

    On trade they most certainly do as they showed at the beginning of this year when they suspended all coal and iron ore imports from Australia for a short period of time.

    Trade can’t hurt anyone.

    The fear of losing trade can pose a dilemma, but it’s a dilemma which works both ways.

    It’s a dilemma for Beijing that prevents them doing what they would like to do in Hong Kong — a good ol’ smiting of the protestors.

  32. Gerry

    The fact that China 1) playing funny buggers in the Pacific for sometime now and 2) slowly building up it’s “land” in the South China Sea, is a “surprise” to our Government and leaders begs the question – what have intelligence services and embassies overseas been doing for the last ten to fifteen years?

    Or were the various Governments so preoccupied with political intrigue and belly gazing that they didn’t listen to warnings?

  33. min

    According to Niall Ferguson the world is about to go back to 15 th century because we are no more debating but calling each other heretics not in relation to religion but as a result of climate change .
    The Chinese in the meantime will continue to build coal fired power stations and emitting CO2 , countries will lose manufacturing by giving up fossil fuels and Chinese will take over and we will become a third world country

  34. OldOzzie

    Here’s a question
    Posted on 9:47 am, November 16, 2019 by Steve Kates
    From Instapundit.

    JOEL KOTKIN: Will Australia Become A Vassal State of China?

    What do you mean Will!!!!

    Wander down the streets of Chatswood or perhaps the 4 empty houses in my own street or stand at Town Hall Station in Rush Hour

    It is the future of Australia, though probably between China and India, but I really do not see a problem – they come in work hard and assimilate in later generations

  35. Fisky

    Oh wow. The PRC ruins British Steel through its dumping practices and now a CCP front company is going to buy it out! Of course the dumb China doves im the West who are both opposed to anti-dumping measures while supporting open slather for CCP “imvestors” think this is totally fine.

    Another example of libertarian “free marketeers” helping advance the cause of socialism.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7674895/amp/Security-fears-Chinese-company-agrees-save-troubled-British-Steel-months-uncertainty.html?__twitter_impression=true

  36. Shane

    Its probably nothing yet, but a lawyer who deals with various legal issues arising from trade with China is seeing a lot of similarities to what he last experienced in the very last days of the old Soviet Union.
    So anyone trading with China should perhaps take heed or at tye very least, some precautions.
    https://www.chinalawblog.com/2019/11/how-to-conduct-business-with-chinese-companies-that-see-a-dark-future.html

  37. Squirrel

    The risks of vassaldom could have been reduced had we not so quickly and competely become addicted to spending everything we get from trading with China, and making spending commitments which assume that revenue will just keep rolling in, year after year.

  38. Fisky

    Its probably nothing yet, but a lawyer who deals with various legal issues arising from trade with China is seeing a lot of similarities to what he last experienced in the very last days of the old Soviet Union.

    Yes, there is a lot of desperation brewing as prices rise, the property market slows, businesses close, and foreigners leave. Chinese companies will probably escalate from stealing their foreign partners’ IP to just taking their cash and closing the doors. You also don’t want to be a foreign competitor with any local enterprise that has party links (which is most of them).

    The China Dove position of unreciprocated free trade, no counter measures for dumping or IP theft, and open slather for Chinese investors/speculators, is now so over-run by events (thanks HK!) as to be a novelty. I will of course continue to troll them as their worldview goes down in flames.

  39. Tel

    Here’s a perspective on how the Washington establishment picture themselves as the last bastion of hope for the free world before OMG The Rise of da China!!

    https://www.csis.org/podcasts/building-future-freedom-prosperity-and-foreign-policy-dan-runde/how-us-should-respond

    Thing is, Trump is doing a better job of handling this all on his own. Think about the Hong Kong situation … Xi can’t win from here, if he puts the Red Army in then that’s going to be the last day of business for a whole lot of foreign firms. On the other hand, if he backs down then he has no balls and the other Chinese will see him as weak. Trump has beaten him without even trying because whatever Xi does at this point will be very bad for China.

    If their best strategy in a trade war is to find their most valuable asset and smash that, to prove how tough they are … how are they going to win by that method?

  40. Chris M

    When the Chicom currency collapses soon some Aussies can buy Bellamy’s back for peanuts.

    The more they persecute Christians the further down they go. And they added in a grab-bag of other groups. Why they so angry and have no friends? What’s to gain by bullying every non-Han?

  41. Fisky

    The more they persecute Christians the further down they go. And they added in a grab-bag of other groups. Why they so angry and have no friends? What’s to gain by bullying every non-Han?

    There has been a distinct change in the air in the past year or two. It’s hard to really capture what’s really going on, but the phrase “North Korea with a better paycheck” comes close.

  42. Juan

    Its probably nothing yet, but a lawyer who deals with various legal issues arising from trade with China is seeing a lot of similarities to what he last experienced in the very last days of the old Soviet Union.

    The article you linked actually referred to the early days of post-Soviet Russia. 😉

    But it makes the valid point that both countries are market kleptocracies.

    One of the erroneous assumptions we have about China is it only steals IP from western businesses. It certainly does do that, but successful Chinese businesses which develop value in their brands are just as likely to have their IP ripped off too.

    A few years ago Chinese tech firm Xiaomi had a hit on its hands with the Mi Power Bank Pro, a portable power bank to recharge your phone; but as soon as it became popular, Xiaomi fell victim to others from Mainland China making and selling poor quality knock offs.

    Chinese commerce is like the Wild West, it’s a den of thieves; but it’s equal opportunity theft.

  43. Bruce

    Iampeter:

    “The real question is when China implodes, just like when Russia implodes (about 5 mins after Putin dies), how do we best manage that implosion?”

    When China implodes, how many of the locals are going to become “refugees”?

    Twenty million, fifty million, a hundred million?

    Think of the potential “billiard-ball” effects on their neighbours with land borders. Viet Nam, Cambodia (already a “vassal state”, Thailand, Myanmar, etc..

    I somehow doubt that any of those countries has enough military clout on hand to “moderate” the effects of such an event, especially if the “caravan” is bolstered with several million PLA members.

    It will be like those dodgy South American “caravans”, but orders of magnitude larger in scale.

    Then again, it is to the advantage of the Chinese regime to cultivate such fears as motivation for the neighbours to accommodate their interesting behaviour, as an alternative to being physically over-run by a starving horde.

  44. Juan

    When the Chicom currency collapses soon

    With China’s foreign exchange reserves, that’s unlikely to happen, and certainly not any time soon.

    The more they persecute Christians the further down they go.

    Christians are not among the worst persecuted in China, though degrees of persecution there is a relative concept.

    Falun Gong as a religious group and the Uighur Muslims as a ethno-religious minority unquestionably suffer the worst persecution.

    The persecution of Mainland Chinese Christians is the more common or garden variety, experienced by anyone who doesn’t slavishly and enthusiastically toe the party line. The Catholic Church has, in contrast, chosen a conciliatory path. Only time will tell if that approach works.

  45. Juan

    There has been a distinct change in the air in the past year or two. It’s hard to really capture what’s really going on, but the phrase “North Korea with a better paycheck” comes close.

    The change followed the bestowing of the title of ‘core leader’ on Xi Jinping in late 2016. It heralded a new era of hyperaggressive Chinese nationalism which Xi has made his hallmark; and because Xi has made it such a personal aspect of his leadership it would be very hard, and politically perilous, for him to soften China’s posture.

  46. Tel

    A few years ago Chinese tech firm Xiaomi had a hit on its hands with the Mi Power Bank Pro, a portable power bank to recharge your phone;

    Wow, just a couple of years ago they invented the idea that’s been around since at least 2001.

    https://bloggingrepublic.com/power-banks-development-journey/

  47. Lazlo

    Correct Tel. There is very little original thought in China under their fascist leadership, only obedience. They are the very worst of the old warrior culture.

  48. Fisky

    This really sounds like the sort of country we should have normal trade relations with, allowing unfettered inflows of investment, not contesting their IP theft, letting them dump goods on our markets, etc. Also the policy of having male party cadre sleeping in the homes of Xinjiang women whose husbands have been put in camps, is a really normal thing to happen that we should be totally on board with. I wouldn’t kick the Confucius Institutes off our campuses, and I would also drop all tariffs immediately! Right, “libertarians”?

    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/11/16/world/asia/china-xinjiang-documents.html

  49. Iampeter

    In this thread, nationalists and leftists, oppose the nationalist and leftist state of China. Because…well…it’s not really clear. Probably because China disallows the superficial trappings of Christianity or something.

    Arky, you should watch a lot more of the videos on the China Uncensored channel. Might learn something.

  50. Juan

    Wow, just a couple of years ago they invented the idea that’s been around since at least 2001.

    https://bloggingrepublic.com/power-banks-development-journey/

    I didn’t say they invented the concept, merely they has developed brand recognition for their product, which it turn was knocked off by other Chinese businesses making poor quality lookalikes.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.